DOCSLIB.ORG

Large-Scale Renewable Energy? a Transdisciplinary View on Conflicts and Trade-Offs in the Implementation of Renewable Energy Phd Thesis

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Large-Scale Renewable Energy? a Transdisciplinary View on Conflicts and Trade-Offs in the Implementation of Renewable Energy Phd Thesis 2 Large-scale Renewable Energy? A transdisciplinary view on conflicts and trade-offs in the implementation of renewable energy Phd Thesis Pere Ariza-Montobbio Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona Supervisors: May 2013 Dr. Joan Martinez-Alier (UAB) Phd Programme in Environmental Sciences and Technology Dr. Jesús Ramos-Martin (UAB) Ecological Economics and Dr. Giorgos Kallis (UAB) Environmental Management 3 4 Large-scale Renewable Energy? A transdisciplinary view on conflicts and trade-offs in the implementation of renewable energy Phd Thesis Pere Ariza-Montobbio Cover design: Felip Ariza Montobbio 5 Bhavatu Sabba Mangalam "May all beings be happy" Siddharta Gautama, Buda 6 Abstract Industrial capitalism is nowadays facing a multi-dimensional crisis, confronting serious environmental, social, cultural, economic and political challenges. Cheap fossil fuels made possible the industrial revolution. They have sustained the growth of industrial society. Now fossil fuels are getting scarce while generating global warming. Responding to climate change and 'peak oil', governments, corporations, citizens and social movements are promoting renewable energy. The lower power densities and the dispersed character of renewable energies increase the demand for land both quantitatively and qualitatively. This requires attention to spatial changes and land use planning for their implementation. Moreover, there are different possible pathways to follow toward an energy system based on renewables. A 'hard' path would promote large-scale power plants and biomass plantations connected to centralized grids and infrastructures for 'bulk power' and fuels transport. A 'soft' path would emphasize distributed energy generation through small-scale facilities matching to end uses. Given these two possible scenarios with different losers and winners, the implementation of renewable energy is likely to be shaped by social conflict. This thesis is an interdisciplinary study of current conflicts and trade-offs in the implementation of renewable energy, with a special interest on energy and land use relationships. The thesis follows a case study research strategy and assesses the implementation of renewable energies in two different world regions, India and Europe. It analyses agrofuels, biodiesel plantations in Tamil Nadu in South India and wind energy in Catalonia, Spain, as two of the most mature and booming renewable technologies. A third case study assesses the potential and constraints for distributed generation of renewable energy in Catalonia, with a special focus on demand management. The research is framed within the broader theoretical framework of societal metabolism. It has the methodological objective of integrating discourse analysis with biophysical accounting. The thesis pays particular attention to three elements: (a) how land demands for generating renewable energy relate to the rural-urban dichotomy and land use planning. (b) How conflicts and ideological struggles between varieties of environmentalism influence planning and implementing renewable energies. How hegemonic paradigms such as neoliberalism and ecological modernization interact with grassroots contestations and local populations hosting renewable energy. (c) How in the interaction between science and politics, certain representations of metabolism become authoritative while others are dismissed. Throughout the case studies this thesis found that conflicts and trade-offs in renewable energy implementation, rather than acknowledged and negotiated, were suppressed by the imposition of reductionist perspectives. The superiority of a "weak" over a "strong" sustainability approach is revealed in the inability of renewable energy policies to tackle technical (trade-offs between different dimensions) and social inconmensurability (the existence of multiple legitimate perspectives in conflict). Moreover, we found that the neglect of social and technical inconmensurability is part and parcel of a process of privileging technical and fact-based argumentation over political and value-based argumentation. This process privileges political positions whose arguments are more compatible with the status quo rather than views which claim for societal transformation. Renewable energy is promoted, in our cases, as commercially oriented and as an industrial sector rather than as a strategic part of broader multi-functional reconfiguration of land use planning. Drawing on Georgescu-Roegen’s distinction between “funds” and “flows”, land use planning and socio- demographic transformations (fund centered) are secondary, in front of boosting energy and revenue flows, which are the priority. This approach seems to be beneficial to the consolidation of a 'hard' path to renewable energies rather than a 'soft' path. 7 Resumen El capitalismo industrial se encuentra ante una crisis multidimensional con serios retos ambientales, sociales, culturales, económicos y políticos. Los combustibles fósiles baratos hicieron posible la revolución industrial y han sostenido el crecimiento de la sociedad industrial. Ahora los combustibles fósiles están empezando a escasear y están generando el calentamiento global. En respuesta al cambio climático y al 'pico del petróleo' gobiernos, corporaciones, ciudadanos y movimientos sociales promueven las energías renovables. La menor densidad energética y el carácter disperso de las energías renovables aumentan la demanda de territorio tanto cuantitativamente como cualitativamente. Ello requiere atención a los cambios espaciales y a la planificación del territorio para su implementación. Además, hay diferentes posibles caminos hacia un sistema energético basado en renovables. Un camino 'duro' promovería centrales eléctricas y plantaciones de biomasa a gran escala conectadas a redes e infraestructuras centralizadas para la masiva generación y transporte de electricidad y combustible. Un camino 'suave' enfatizaría la generación distribuida de energía a través de infraestructuras a pequeña escala ajustadas a los usos finales. Dada la existencia de diferentes posibles escenarios, la implantación de las energías renovables probablemente se verá moldeada por conflictos sociales. Esta tesis es un estudio interdisciplinar de conflictos tanto entre grupos sociales como entre varias dimensiones en la implantación de energías renovables, con especial interés en las relaciones entre energía y territorio. La tesis sigue una estrategia de investigación basada en casos de estudio. Evalúa la implementación de energías renovables en dos distintas regiones del mundo, en la India y en Europa. Analiza los agrocombustibles, plantaciones de biodiesel en el Sur de la India y la energía eólica en Cataluña, España como ejemplos de las tecnologías renovables más maduras y en mayor desarrollo. Un tercer caso evalúa el potencial y las restricciones a una generación distribuida de energía renovable en Cataluña con un especial foco en la demanda. Esta investigación se enmarca en el estudio del metabolismo social y tiene el objetivo metodológico de integrar el análisis de discurso con la contabilidad biofísica. La tesis da particular importancia a tres elementos: (a) como la demanda de tierra para generar energía renovable está relacionada con la dicotomía rural-urbana y la planificación del territorio. (b) como los conflictos y disputas ideológicas entre ambientalismos influencian la planificación e implementación de las renovables. Paradigmas hegemónicos como el neoliberalismo o la modernización ecológica interactúan y chocan con la contestación popular y las poblaciones locales dónde se implantan proyectos renovables. (c) como en la relación entre ciencia y política ciertas representaciones del metabolismo son consideradas y otras descartadas. A lo largo de los casos de estudio encontramos que los conflictos entre distintas dimensiones y grupos sociales en lugar de ser reconocidos y negociados son reprimidos por la imposición de perspectivas reduccionistas. La superioridad de un enfoque de sostenibilidad 'débil' frente a un enfoque de sostenibilidad 'fuerte' se revela en la incapacidad de las políticas de energía renovable de lidiar con la inconmensurabilidad técnica (la existencia de conflictos entre diferentes dimensiones) y la inconmensurabilidad social (la existencia de múltiples perspectivas legítimas en conflicto). Además, encontramos que esta negación de la inconmensurabilidad social y técnica es parte de un proceso de toma de decisiones que privilegia la argumentación técnica basada en los hechos sobre la argumentación política o basada en los valores. Ello privilegia posiciones políticas que son más compatibles con el status quo más que visiones que reclaman la transformación social. La energía renovable es orientada en nuestros casos de estudio al desarrollo de un sector industrial y comercial en lugar de como parte de una reconfiguración multifuncional de la planificación del territorio. Usando la distinción de Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen entre “fondos” y “flujos”, la planificación del territorio y las transformaciones socio-demográficas (centradas en los fondos) son secundarias frente al fomento de flujos de energía e ingreso monetario que es la prioridad. Este enfoque parece ser beneficioso a la consolidación de un camino 'duro' hacia las renovables, en lugar de uno 'blando'. 8 Table of contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • ROMAHDUS Vipu
    ROMAHDUS ViPu Lokakuu 2014 1 Sisällys Lukijalle……………………………………………………… 2 1 Mikä romahdus?…………………………………………… 2 2 Romahduksen lajeista……………………………………… 6 3 Romahduksen vaiheista…………………………………… 15 4 Teoreetikkoja ja näkemyksiä……………………………… 17 5 Romahdus—maailmanloppu, apokalypsi, kriisi, utopia… 25 6 Romahdus ja selviytyminen………………………………. 29 7 Pitääkö romahdusta jouduttaa?…………………………… 44 8 Romahdus, tieto ja hallinta………………………………… 49 9 Romahdus ja politiikka…………………………………….. 53 2 Lukijalle Tämä teksti on osa pohdiskelua, jonka tarkoituksena on luoda pohjaa Vihreän Puolueen poliittiselle toiminnalle. Tekstin aiheena on jo monin paikoin ja tavoin alkanut teollisten sivilisaatioiden ja modernismin kehityskertomuksen romahdus. Tekstin ensimmäiset 8 lukua käsittelevät erilaisia teorioita, käsityksiä ja vapaampaankin ajatuksenlentoon nojaavia näkökulmia romahdukseen. Ne eivät siis missään nimessä edusta ViPun poliittisia käsityksiä tai tavotteita, vaan pohjustavat alustavia poliittisia johtopäätöksiä, jotka esitetään luvussa 9. Toisin sanoen luvut 1-8 pyörittelevät aihetta suuntaan ja toiseen ja luku 9 esittää välitilinpäätöksen, jonka on edelleen tarkoitus tarkentua ja elää tilanteen mukaan. Tätä romahdus-osiota on myös tarkoitus lukea muiden ViPun teoreettisten tekstien kanssa, niiden ristivalotuksessa. 1 Mikä romahdus? Motto: "Yhden maailman loppu on toisen maailman alku, yhden maailmanloppu on toisen maailmanalku." Moton sanaleikin tarkoitus on huomauttaa, että vaikka yhteiskunnan romahdus onkin yksilön ja ryhmän näkökulmasta vääjäämätön tapahtuma, johon
    [Show full text]
  • The Olduvai Theory. Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization
    Winter 2005-2006 THE SOCIAL CONTRACT The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization by Richard C. Duncan This paper accomplishes four goals: Abstract The first goal is to show that from 1893 through 1949 three distinguished scholars formulated a he Olduvai Theory states that the life comprehensive Olduvai scenario. expectancy of industrial civilization is The second goal is threefold: 1) electrical power Tapproximately 100 years: circa 1930-2030. is crucial end-use energy for industrial civilization; 1 2) Energy production per capita (e) defines it. The the big blackouts are inevitable; and 3) the proximate exponential growth of world energy production ended cause of the collapse of industrial civilization, if and in 1970 (Postulate 1 is verified). Average e will show when it occurs, will be that the electric power grids go no growth from 1979 through circa 2008 (Postulate 2 down and never come back up. is confirmed from 1979 through 2003). The rate of I first presented the Olduvai Theory at an change of e will go steeply negative circa 2008 engineering conference entitled, “Science, Technology, (Postulate 3). World population will decline to about and Society” (Duncan, 1989). My paper was well two billion circa 2050 (Postulate 4). A growing received and a lengthy discussion followed — even number of independent studies concur (see text). though I had no data to support it at the time. A few [Key Words : Olduvai Theory; Henry Adams; energy years later I had gathered eight (8) historical data and population; exponential growth; permanent points to backup the theory (Duncan, 1993). Three blackouts; overshoot and collapse.
    [Show full text]
  • 2. PEAK OIL 10 2.1 the Origin of Oil 11 2.2 History of Oil 12 3
    Bachelor's thesis (Turku University of Applied Sciences) Degree Programme in International Business International Business Management 2012 Aleksi Rantanen, Lauri Stevens PEAK OIL – A study of the phenomenon and possible effects and alternatives in Finland BACHELOR´S THESIS | ABSTRACT TURKU UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES International Business | Management 2012 | 66 + 5 Emmanuel Querrec Aleksi Rantanen and Lauri Stevens PEAK OIL – A STUDY OF THE PHENOMENON AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS AND ALTERNATIVES IN FINLAND This thesis studies a phenomenon called oil peak; what does it mean, what are the possible effects and consequenses in Finland. The theoretical framework covers facts about oil and energy, different theories from microeconomics all the way to different oil theories. It provides comprehensive information on the subject. The empirical research includes two separate expert interviews with the aim of understanding peak oil and its effects in Finland from two different perspectives. The other expert coming from from private sector and the other expert from public sector. The research was conducted by using qualitative method and the questions were made mainly based on the theoretical framefork. Main findings of this study were that peak oil is recognized but experts still argue what does it mean practically; when is it going to happen or has it already happened. The era of cheap oil is coming to an end and it is time for Finland to investigate all possible solutions which could decrease our level of oil dependency. KEYWORDS: Peak oil, oil dependency, oil crunch, eroei, energy, alternative energy, energy in Finland, oil theory, energy production, energy consumption OPINNÄYTETYÖ (AMK) | TIIVISTELMÄ TURUN AMMATTIKORKEAKOULU International Business | Management 2012 | 66 + 5 Emmanuel Querrec Aleksi Rantanen and Lauri Stevens ÖLJYHUIPPU – TUTKIMUS ILMIÖSTÄ JA SEN MAHDOLLISISTA VAIKUTUKSISTA JA VAIHTOEHDOISTA SUOMESSA Tämä opinnäytetyö tutkii öljyhuippua ilmiönä; mitä se tarkoittaa ja mitkä ovat sen mahdolliset vaikutukset ja seuraukset Suomessa.
    [Show full text]
  • Great Turning Point: Oil Peak and Disintegration of Industrial Civilization1
    Tomislav Markus Hrvatski institut za povijest (Croatian Institute for History) Zagreb, Republika Hrvatska (Republic of Croatia) GREAT TURNING POINT: OIL PEAK AND DISINTEGRATION OF INDUSTRIAL CIVILIZATION1 I. A rise of industrial civilization and fossil fuels Wood and labour of living beings (humans and domestic animals) were the chief sources of energy2 in the agrarian civilizations. Coal was used in some regions – as in England from 14th century on or in the Song China - but that was exception. So, the vast majority of the population had to live as peasants and in an urban environment – cities and towns – were living only 5-10 % of the population. In favourable circumstances human population rose, depending on available food, and then crashed by hunger and various diseases. Majority of population in agrarian civilizations was living on the brink of hunger and demographic-social crises were often. Many agrariran civilizations – Maya, Roman Empire, ancient Summer – badly damaged ecological foundations of their existence and perished or significantly weakened. Main ideological forms in agrarian civilization were axial religions – christianity, islam, buddhism, confucianism etc. – which were originaly protest against social repression and other anthropogenic problems in their society but quickly became consolation for supposedly inevitable human misery. Faith in «historical progress» - the fundamental metanarative of all modern secular ideologies3 – was created due to the discovery of the New World, but became widespread due to new energy sources. Traditional economy, from 17th to 1 Article's last update: 6/18/2010. 2 In modern physic energy is usually understood as a capability to do some work. On Earth, practically all available energy comes from the Sun, including fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal).
    [Show full text]
  • Algeria Energy Production, Population Growth Based on Olduvai Theory M
    Revue des Energies Renouvelables Vol. 21 N°3 (2018) 445 - 454 Algeria energy production, population growth based on Olduvai Theory M. Allali 1, M. Tamali 2 and M. Rahlic 3 1 Unité de Recherche en Energies Renouvelables en Milieu Saharien, URER.MS Centre de Développement des Energies Renouvelables, CDER B.P. 478, Route de Reggane, 01000 Adrar, Algeria 2 Department of Electrical Engineering, Bechar University, 08000, Bechar, Algeria 3 Department of Electrical Engineering Université des sciences et de la technologie, Oran, Algeria (reçu le 28 Septembre 2018 - accepté le 30 Septembre 2018) Abstract - During the last two centuries we have known nothing but exponential growth and in parallel we haveevolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of no growth. So the Olduvai Theory is based on time-series data of world energy production and population; the data are arrays of discrete numbers year-on-year, not continuous functions of time. Hence the difference calculus must be used, not the infinitesimal calculus. Postulates 1 and 2 require that we distinguish intervals of linear growth from those of exponential growth. Global population has grown to 8.3 billion. Most, though not all, of that growth has been concentrated in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, in Algeria will growth to 52 million in 2050 and in 2100 will be 72 million, in Africa and in the same year 2050 will touched 1787 million and in the world will be 9655 million in 2050.
    [Show full text]
  • 01 Front–054
    Energy Myths and Realities Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate Vaclav Smil The AEI Press Publisher for the American Enterprise Institute WASHINGTON, D.C. Distributed by arrangement with the Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, 4501 Forbes Boulevard, Suite 200, Lanham, Maryland 20706. To order call toll free 1-800-462-6420 or 1-717-794-3800. For all other inquiries please contact AEI Press, 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 or call 1-800-862-5801. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Smil, Vaclav. Energy myths and realities : bringing science to the energy policy debate / Vaclav Smil. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-8447-4328-8 ISBN-10: 0-8447-4328-3 1. Renewable energy sources. 2. Energy policy. I. Title. TJ808.S639 2010 333.79'4—dc22 2010009437 14 13 12 11 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 © 2010 by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Wash- ington, D.C. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used or repro- duced in any manner whatsoever without permission in writing from the American Enterprise Institute except in the case of brief quotations embodied in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not neces- sarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. Printed in the United States of America Homines libenter quod volunt credunt Men believe what they want to —Publius Terentius v Contents LIST OF FIGURES xi KEY TO UNITS OF MEASURE xiii INTRODUCTION 1 Lost Opportunities 2 Persistent Myths 6 Challenging the Myths 11 PART I: LESSONS FROM THE PAST 15 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Livhinttgp :-/ R/Wicwhawr.Dth Deuoinldcarunm.Com/Node/5419
    The Oil Drum | Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Livhinttgp :-/ R/wicwhawr.dth Deuoinldcarunm.com/node/5419 Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan Posted by Nate Hagens on July 4, 2009 - 8:37am Topic: Supply/Production Tags: geodestinies, olduvai, richard duncan, walter youngquist [list all tags] [Editor's Note: Some have noted that this article was first published by a controversial organization with some issue stances that we--to a person--do not adhere to; TOD protocol for guest essays is to include the original source of the piece. It was not my/our intent to direct people to the site or to endorse its content, just like we don't endorse any other site's content or any particular world view. Let's focus the discussion on the essay itself; and debate it on its own merits please.] This is a guest posting of Richard Duncan's latest "Olduvai" update, which is an essay that explores energy use and population and as with previous updates arrives at some rather grim conclusions. On a side note, the paper Richard Duncan wrote with Walter Youngquist in 1999 (when oil prices were in $10-$15 range and stock markets were at all time highs) predicting a 2007 world oil peak was not only prescient and ahead of its time using oil forecasting heuristics, but was part of the core readings from 2003 that caused me to leave the Wall St path to study resource depletion full time. (I encourage those who have not done so to read it: Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production).
    [Show full text]
  • Cities As Dissipative Structures: Global Change and the Increasing Vulnerability of Urban Civilization
    CITIES AS DISSIPATIVE STRUCTURES: GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE INCREASING VULNERABILITY OF URBAN CIVILIZATION William E. Rees, PhD, FRSC UBC School of Community and Regional Planning Washington State University ‘CARBON MASTERS’ Bellingham, WA – 10 November 2011 Starting premise: H.Sapiens is unsustainable by nature and nurture Base nature (genetic predisposition) Unless or until constrained by negative feedback, all species populations tend to: expand to fill all the ecological space accessible to them and use all available resources (in the case of humans, to the limits of contemporary technology) (Rees 2006). Careless nurture (cultural predisposition) Our socially-constructed myth of progress and continuous growth: “We have in our hands now… the technology to feed, clothe, and supply energy to an ever-growing population for the next seven billion years…” (J. Simon 1995). The emergence of a new ‘age of unreason’ E.g., politics dominated by neoliberal ideology, religious fundamentalism, climate-change denial, anti-intellectualism and other forms of ‘magical thinking’. In short, urban-industrial society is inherently unsustainable (Rees 2008) ‘Unsustainability’ is an inevitable emergent property of the systemic interaction between urban-industrial society, as presently conceived, and the ecosphere. Ways to think of ‘the city’ We usually think of cities as areas dominated the ‘built environment’ and characterized by high human population densities. Cities are hotbeds of artistic, cultural and political activity. Jane Jacobs trumpeted cities as the “engines of national economic growth.” All this is true, but we usually forget that cities are also complex biophysical entities, i.e., open systems subject to thermodynamic law. On the Second Law of Thermodynamics As originally formulated: Any spontaneous change in an isolated system increases the system’s entropy (randomness, disorder); the system moves closer to thermodynamic equilibrium, a state in which nothing further can happen.
    [Show full text]
  • L'ˆ@Le Mystaerieuse
    UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA Līga Grīnberga RESEARCH OF NEW COMPOSITE MATERIALS FOR HYDROGEN STORAGE Doctoral thesis Department of Physics Subsection of Material Science RIGA 2007 1. Literature overview 1.1 Introduction In 1870 Jules Verne proposed in his novel “L’île mystérieuse”: “I believe that water will one day be employed as fuel, that hydrogen and oxygen which constitute it, used singly or together, will furnish an inexhaustible source of heat and light, of an intensity of which coal is not capable. I believe then that when the deposits of coal are exhausted, we shall heat and warm ourselves with water. Water will be the coal of the future” [1]. According to the Olduvai theory [2] the life expectancy of an Industrial Civilization is about one hundred years, measured by the world average energy production on the person per year: ê = E/(Pop). The Industrial Civilization defined in this theory began in 1930 and is predicted to end on or before the year 2030. Following the estimations and explorations in 5 continents and 30 countries, there is no doubt that the peak and decline of the Industrial Civilization should occur. Many factors could its decline, namely: overpopulation, depletion of non-renewable resources, and damage to the environmental, pollution, soil erosion, global warming, newly emerging viruses, and conflicts for scarce resources. Figure 1.1.1 depicts the Olduvai theory. - 1 - Figure 1.1.1: The Olduvai Theory: 1930-2030 Notes: (1) 1930 => The Industrial Civilization began when (ê) reached 30% of its peak value. (2) 1979 => ê reached its peak value of 11.15 boe/c.
    [Show full text]
  • Peak Politics: Resource Scarcity and Libertarian Political Culture in the United States
    Peak Politics: Resource Scarcity and Libertarian Political Culture in the United States A Dissertation SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA BY Matthew Schneider-Mayerson IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Elaine Tyler May, Adviser June 2013 © Matthew Schneider-Mayerson, 2013 Acknowledgements First and foremost, many thanks to the wonderful members of my committee, Elaine Tyler May, Lary May, Daniel J. Philippon, Kevin P. Murphy and David N. Pellow. Elaine and Lary were dedicated mentors throughout graduate school, even when they—and often I—had little idea exactly what I was studying, or why. Lary’s emphasis on the “so what” question reminded me that my research should always be relevant, while Elaine’s consistent support, insight, and warmth were invaluable. Their monthly dissertation group provided the kind of intellectual community that one seeks but rarely finds as one enters graduate school, and having regular take-out Chinese food made me, a Jew from New York City, feel right at home in the Midwest. Dan Philippon was a mentor in my environmental pursuits and provided generous feedback and advice on this and other projects that was incredibly thoughtful and detailed. David Pellow agreed to join at a late stage and always provoked me to consider new angles. Kevin Murphy guided my research into conservatism and masculinity and was a model of sustaining kindness and warmth. Thanks to the University of Minnesota for its financial support, especially in the form of a Graduate Student Fellowship my first year and a Doctoral Dissertation Fellowship this last year.
    [Show full text]
  • World Energy Production, Population Growth, and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge
    World Energy Production, Population Growth, And the Road to the Olduvai Gorge Richard C. Duncan Institute on Energy and Man As published in Population and Environment, May-June 2001, v. 22, n. 5. ______________________________________________________________________________ The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030. After more than a century of strong growth — energy production per capita peaked in 1979. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an 'epidemic' of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks — worldwide. ______________________________________________________________________________ KEY WORDS: Olduvai theory; energy; population; industrial civilization; overshoot; electricity; collapse. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ This subject was presented to the Pardee Keynote Symposia, Geological Society of America, Summit 2000 in Reno, Nevada on November 13, 2000 — more than two months before the rolling blackouts of electricity began in California. Please send correspondence to Dr. Richard C. Duncan at Institute on Energy and Man; 5307 Ravenna Place NE, #1; Seattle, WA 98105. Page 1 of 26 POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner. — Joseph A.
    [Show full text]
  • PEAK OIL: That the Production Curve of a Mineral Resource Was Symmetrical, with the Decline Being a Mirror Image of the Ascent
    CrossTalk prophet and give credence to his notion PEAK OIL: that the production curve of a mineral resource was symmetrical, with the decline being a mirror image of the ascent. A RETROSPECTIVE But reality does not follow perfect mod­ els, and by the year 2000, actual U.S. oil output was 2.3 times as much as indicated PREDICTIONS OF WHEN we would run In 1956, he predicted that U.S. oil out­ by Hubbert’s symmetrically declining out of oil have been around for a century, put would top out during the late 1960s; forecast. Similarly, his forecasts of global but the idea that peak production was in 1969 he placed it in the first half of the peak oil (either in 1990 or in 2000) had rapidly approaching and that it would 1970s. In 1970, when the actual peak soon unraveled. But that made no differ­ be followed by ruinous decline gained came—or appeared to come—it was nearly ence to a group of geologists, most nota­ wider acceptance thanks to the work of 20 percent above Hubbert’s prediction. bly Colin Campbell, Kenneth Deffeyes, M. King Hubbert, an American geologist But few paid attention to the miss—the tim­ L.F. Ivanhoe, and Jean Laherrère, who who worked for Shell in Houston. ing was enough to make his name as a saw global oil peaking in 2000 or 2003. IMAGES GUERDOU/GETTY KHALID NUMBERS DON’T LIE BY VACLAV SMIL 20 | MAY 2020 | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG PRODUCTION VS. PREDICTION 4 U.S. field production 3 of crude oil (billions of barrels Hubbert per year) 2 high-peak oil estimate 1 UP AGAIN: Peak oil did happen, but still the prophecies of doom have 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2019 proved false: Oil production is trending up again.
    [Show full text]