Section heading

The RSPB’s 2050 energy vision Meeting the UK’s climate targets in harmony with nature

The RSPB’s vision for the UK’s energy future 3 Peter Cairns (rspb-images.com) Peter

2 Contents

Foreword 5

Our challenge: putting nature in the “energy trilemma” 6

Our approach: mapping energy futures 8

Our findings: results of the spatial analysis 12

Our scenarios: UK energy futures for 2050 18

Our vision: a low carbon, high biodiversity energy system 28

Recommendations: 10 steps to meet the UK’s climate targets in harmony with nature 30

Power to the people? 35

Appendix: the low ecological risk scenarios 36

References 38

Acknowledgements

The RSPB would like to thank The Crown Estate, The British Trust for Ornithology and Ecotricity for the provision of data for the spatial analysis presented in this report. These data, and the supporting guidance offered, greatly assisted this research. It is emphasised that the interpretation of these data, all conclusions drawn and all views expressed in this report are the RSPB’s own.

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 3 Sarah Niemann (www.whispersfromthewild.co.uk) Sarah

4 Foreword

The way that we currently use inappropriately sited, and wildlife impacts on sensitive wildlife and energy in the UK is not sustainable. can be disturbed or displaced habitats. We have done this using We use too much of it, we use it during the construction, operation pioneering mapping techniques inefficiently, and our main sources or decommissioning of energy to assess where renewable of energy, fossil fuels, are driving us projects. Bioenergy can also harm energy can be located with low towards dangerous levels of climate wildlife if the feedstocks used ecological risk, based on current change – one of the greatest impact on vulnerable species understanding and available data. long-term threats to wildlife. or habitats, or the growth of feedstocks results in indirect Using the UK Government’s own The UK has started to decarbonise land-use change. DECC 2050 Pathways Calculator, its energy supply, but we still we have used our findings to have a long way to go. In 2008, This is why, in this report, we are develop three scenarios for the the UK Government introduced challenging decision-makers to UK’s energy future that achieve a legally binding target to reduce think strategically about impacts the current 2050 climate targets greenhouse gas emissions by at on nature when designing UK with low risk for wildlife, as far as least 80% by 2050 against 1990 energy policy. ecological data is available. We levels. This pledge was reaffirmed do not indicate a preference, and at the climate change talks in Paris Why energy matters to other scenarios can, of course, be in December 2015, and could be the RSPB created. Instead, we want to initiate increased further as part of an The RSPB has a long track record of a debate about how best to achieve international effort to limit global engaging with energy issues. Over a future for the UK’s energy that is temperature rises to well below the past several years, we have secure, affordable, low carbon and 2°C (aiming for 1.5°C). responded to thousands of wind which has least impact on nature. farm applications (around 1,000 Meeting these targets will between 2010 and 2015 alone), and You can view the full Technical require major changes to the have made practical interventions Report, and this Summary Report, UK’s energy system. These will to influence public policy to plan online6. include significantly increasing the renewable energy in harmony with proportion of energy that we use nature – both in the UK and across If you have comments on this from renewable and low carbon Europe with our BirdLife partnersi. report please do contact sources, as well as greatly reducing [email protected]. We look our overall energy demand. We also practice what we preach, forward to hearing from you. However, it is crucial that renewable and with our partners Ecotricity, energy is delivered in a way that we have recently erected a wind avoids harming wildlife. At a time turbine at our UK headquarters when biodiversity is in trouble, with in Bedfordshire (pictured). This is 60% of UK species that have been designed to minimise the impact assessed having declined in the last on wildlife, whilst providing the 50 years1, we cannot afford to give equivalent of over half of the any form of development a “free RSPB’s total electricity needs pass” to damage our environment. across all of our sites in the UK.

Poorly planned energy Why the RSPB has infrastructure can seriously developed a 2050 harm wildlife, adding to existing energy vision pressures, including those caused The RSPB prides itself on being by climate change2. For example, an evidence-based organisation. large-scale hydropower can cause We have therefore undertaken severe harm to river ecosystems, research to explore how a low Martin Harper, wind turbines can pose collision carbon energy future could be RSPB Director of Conservation risk for birds and other wildlife if achieved in the UK, whilst limiting May 2016

i Examples include bird sensitivity mapping in Scotland3, membership of organisations such as the Renewables Grid Initiative, developing biodiversity management guidance for solar farms4 and producing reports such as Delivering Synergies between Renewable Energy and Nature Conservation: Messages for Policy Making up to 2030 and Beyond 5.

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 5 Graham Eaton (rspb-images.com)

Renewable energy is vital for tackling climate change, but it must be deployed in harmony with nature – 94% of people in the UK agree there is a moral obligation to halt biodiversity loss7. Our challenge: putting nature in the “energy trilemma” Why nature needs a place in the “energy trilemma” There is growing acceptance that new energy infrastructure required but also to maintain public support we need an energy system that to meet our 2050 climate targets. for renewable energy. 94% of delivers affordable energy, ensures people in the UK agree there is a security of supply and reduces The UK’s transition to low carbon moral obligation to halt biodiversity emissions – the so-called “energy energy will not be truly sustainable loss7. It is therefore essential that trilemma” (see figure 1). However, unless it reduces emissions in an environmental sustainability in the the trilemma as it stands does not affordable and secure way – and energy trilemma encapsulates encapsulate the full sustainability avoids damaging wildlife. This both low emissions and low challenge of planning the UK’s is crucial not only to maintain a ecological impact. energy future, as it overlooks the healthy natural environment (a vital potential ecological impacts of the part of tackling climate change), This report summarises research undertaken by the RSPB to reach an evidence-based understanding Environmental sustainability of how the UK can “green the energy trilemma” – by meeting climate change targets and decarbonising our energy supply affordably, securely AND in harmony with nature. It also makes recommendations as Energy to how this can be achieved. trilemma The research focuses on the compatibility of high levels of renewable energy with nature conservation in the UK, with some consideration given to other low Energy security Affordability carbon energy sources, such as Carbon Capture and Storage Figure 1. The energy trilemma. (CCS) technologies.

6 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Our challenge: putting nature in the “energy trilemma”

Key findings of our analysis: Summary of recommendations: c With careful planning, it is possible to meet (see page 30) the UK’s climate targets by using high levels of renewable energy, whilst avoiding significant 1. Set the ambition: 100% low carbon energy negative impacts on nature. by 2050. c Massive strides in demand reduction and 2. Plan for nature: identify suitable sites. energy efficiency are important, both to ensure that energy is affordable in future, and to avoid 3. Develop roadmaps for decarbonisation in significant ecological impacts. harmony with nature. c Available technologies such as onshore wind and 4. Improve the ecological evidence base. solar are key to decarbonisation, and well-sited projects should be supported. 5. Eliminate energy waste. c Research is needed into the impacts of 6. Promote low carbon, low ecological technologies, and to determine where the impact innovation. sites most in need of protection are located – particularly at sea. 7. Transform low carbon heat and transport. c Research and development of technologies such 8. Make economic incentives work for nature and as energy storage and smart grid networks are the climate. critical to ensure long-term security of supply. 9. Ensure bioenergy supplies are sustainable. c There are opportunities for new technologies, such as floating offshore wind turbines, to 10. Build a grid network fit for the future. unlock substantial renewable energy capacity, potentially with low ecological risk, but this requires greater investment in ongoing ecological research and monitoring. Cultura Creative (RF) / Cultura Creative Alamy

We can have high levels of renewable energy in the UK with low risk to wildlife – if we site projects carefully, and invest in understanding ecological impacts and determining which sites need protecting most.

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 7 Peter Cairns (rspb-images.com) Peter

We have mapped areas of the UK where renewable energy could be located with low risk for sensitive wildlife and habitats, such as ancient woodland. Our approach: mapping energy futures

In order to understand how the UK Calculator to understand tidal stream technologies. We can sustainably deploy renewable how these technologies can have taken a spatial (ie mapped) energy technologies, decarbonise contribute to meeting the UK’s approach to these technologies its energy supply and meet its climate targets in a wildlife- because, if deployed widely, they climate targets in harmony with friendly way, whilst balancing will require large areas of land or nature, we have: the other elements of the sea. This means that appropriate energy trilemma. siting is crucial to minimise conflicts c analysed the known ecological with biodiversity conservation. risks of all major renewable What is the DECC 2050 energy technologies that could Pathways Calculator? Figure 2 summarises the contribute to the UK’s energy This tool was developed by the approach taken to mapping areas mix up to 2050. UK Government’s Department of of opportunity, constraints and Energy and Climate Change (DECC). ecological sensitivities for each c mapped areas of the UK where It enables users to generate energy technology. This has been done technologies that require large scenarios for 2050 and test whether using currently available data, but it areas of land or sea could be they will meet the 80% emissions is important to note that there are deployed, taking into account reduction target. The tool includes significant data gaps, particularly physical and policy constraints, both energy supply and demand in the marine environment. This and known ecological options, and allows the user to analysis could be substantially sensitivities. test the cost and security of supply enhanced if more data collection of different scenarios. The DECC is prioritised and investment made c conducted a literature review 2050 Calculator is available at: in it. of key ecological risks and 2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/ constraints to development #/home Table 1 provides examples of of other technologies, where the types of physical constraint, mapping was not appropriate or A spatial approach policy constraint and ecological possible eg rooftop solar. For the technologies we have sensitivity that have been mapped, we followed the steps on incorporated into the mapping. A c using these results, estimated page 9 to estimate the aggregate comprehensive list of constraints the energy generation potential areas of land or sea available for applied, and an explanation of of each technology that can be deployment with low ecological risk. high, medium and low ecological achieved in the UK with low sensitivity levels, can be found in ecological risk by 2050. We created maps for onshore the full Technical Report6. wind, solar farms, bioenergy crops, c used the DECC 2050 Pathways offshore wind, wave power and

8 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Our approach: mapping energy futures

Figure 2. Framework for assessing the deployment potential of Accessible energy resource renewable energy technologies within areas of high, medium and low/unknown ecological Physical sensitivity (adapted from SQW constraints Energy 20108) Policy Step 1: Map where the energy constraints resource is technically viable (eg where there is sufficient average wind speed for High or wind turbines). medium ecological Step 2: Exclude areas with sensitivity physical constraints that prevent deployment (eg buildings, roads and other infrastructure). Low/unknown ecological Step 3: Exclude areas where sensitivity there are policy constraints to deployment (eg heritage designations, Ministry of Defence areas).

Step 4: Exclude areas of high and PLEASE NOTE: maps shown in this report are not intended for medium ecological sensitivity fine-scale use to identify sites at project level, but instead provide (eg designated Natura 2000 sites, a high-level indication of aggregate areas that may be suitable for SSSIs, ASSIs, ancient woodland renewable energy development at different levels of ecological habitat). sensitivity. This analysis could be improved in future, as more data become available and knowledge improves. See accompanying Result: indicative area where information on how the maps should be interpreted, including the technology may be located why it is not possible to distinguish between low/unknown with low ecological risk, based ecological sensitivity. on current understanding and available data.

Table 1. Examples of physical constraints, policy constraints and ecological sensitivities included in the spatial analysis

Examples: Physical constraints Examples: Policy constraints Examples: Ecological sensitivities

National Scenic Areas (NSAs) Sites designated under the Birds Motorways and Areas of Outstanding Natural and Habitats Directives Beauty (AONBs)

Sites of Special Scientific Interest Settlements Buffer zones around settlements (SSSIs)

Rivers/lakes/reservoirs Shipping routes and fishing areas Habitats such as ancient woodland (for land-based technologies) (for marine technologies)

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 9 Interpreting the maps Rather, they represent areas the same methodology should be The maps we have produced where the risk of ecological repeated at national, regional or provide high-level estimates of impacts is likely to be higher, local scales to inform planning with the deployment potential of key so development is less likely more accuracy, incorporating new or renewable technologies in the UK to be appropriate. Strategic locally available data. within areas of high, medium and Environmental Assessment and low/unknown ecological sensitivity. site-based assessments such as Figure 3 shows an example of It is not possible to distinguish Environmental Impact Assessment the maps produced using this between areas of low and areas remain crucial, so that appropriate methodology, for field-scale solar of unknown ecological sensitivity, locations at a variety of scales can arrays, or solar farms. Areas shown since data on the distribution of be identified. in green on the map (far right) sensitive species is rarely complete, indicate where we estimate that meaning that caution is needed The maps are based on the current solar farms could be sited with low when interpreting these areas. understanding of ecological impacts, ecological risk, based on current the identity of sensitive species and understanding of impacts and Areas of low/unknown ecological habitats, and information available distribution of sensitive species and sensitivity are not necessarily on their distribution. This analysis habitats. areas in which renewable energy could be built on in the future as development will have no knowledge improves and more data Maps for the full range of detrimental ecological impact. become available. technologies analysed in this Similarly, areas of medium and study can be found in the high ecological sensitivity are not Only UK-wide datasets have been Technical Report6. “exclusion” areas in which it is not incorporated so as to minimise possible for development to proceed. bias; however, spatial analysis using

Figure 3. Indicative areas of constraints on potential locations for solar farms in the UK.

Yearly sum of global irradiation on an optimally inclined surface / kWh per square metre

High : 1276

Low : 803

Physical constraint Policy constraint High ecological sensitivity Medium ecological sensitivity

Resource availability Physical constraints

10 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Our approach: mapping energy futures Cultura RM / Alamy

Our research shows a significant opportunity for solar farms in the UK with low risk for wildlife, and these could potentially be managed to benefit biodiversity.

N 0 120 240 480 Kilometres

Policy constraints Ecological sensitivity for solar farms in the UK

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 11 Our findings: results of the spatial analysis

tidal stream fixed wind floating wind wave onshore wind only solar only solar and wind solar/biomass solar/biomass and wind (land) no opportunity* (sea) no opportunity*

Figure 4. Indicative areas of opportunity for the deployment of renewable technologies in the UK with low/unknown ecological sensitivity, taking into account physical constraints, policy constraints and areas of high/medium ecological sensitivity.

*No opportunity indicates areas that have been excluded from this map due to a lack of resource opportunity, the presence of physical constraints, policy constraints and/or areas of high/medium ecological sensitivity.

12 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Our findings: results of the spatial analysis Malcolm Hunt (rspb-images.com)

Our research shows the UK could have up to six times the current level of onshore wind turbines, with low risk for wildlife and protected landscapes.

The map in Figure 4 covers the Energy output at low pages 8–9). In the low ecological Exclusive Economic Zone of the ecological risk risk scenarios (see page 18), we United Kingdom. It shows areas Table 2 outlines the maximum have included up to the maximum where, using the methodology annual energy output that we annual energy output for these described on page 9, we estimate estimate can be produced by the technologies, in combination that renewable technologies can renewable technologies we have with other energy supply and be installed with low ecological mapped, at low ecological risk (see demand options. risk. The areas shown in colour indicate key areas of opportunity Table 2. Estimated annual energy output (TWh/year) with low for the deployment of onshore ecological risk in the UK for renewable energy technologies mapped wind, solar farms, bioenergy crops, in this study offshore wind, wave energy and Annual energy output at low tidal stream technologies. Areas in Renewable energy technology ecological risk in terawatt hours grey are excluded due to lack per year (TWh/year) of resource opportunity, physical Onshore wind 140 or policy constraints to deployment, and/or high or Solar farms 246* medium ecological sensitivity. Bioenergy crops 23* Offshore wind (fixed)** 69 – 115 This spatial analysis is based Offshore wind (floating)** 5,044 – 5,558 on currently available data and Wave energy 42 the known ecological risks of renewable technologies. To Tidal stream** 17 – 176 build on this research, more TOTAL 5,558 – 6,277*** data is urgently needed to fill *Precautionary estimate taking account of land-use change and potential impacts on food evidence gaps and to improve production of using agricultural land for energy. Bioenergy figure includes electricity and understanding, particularly in heat generation. the offshore environment. This **Figures presented as a range to take account of the increased uncertainties surrounding would enable the methodology offshore renewable energy development. ***This total does not include bioenergy crops, as they would require land also assumed presented in this report to more to be available for solar farms. Solar farms are prioritised in this table, as they generate accurately inform strategic more energy per unit area. planning for renewables in the 6 UK, at a variety of spatial scales. See the full Technical Report for more details of our approach to each of these estimates.

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 13 Land and sea area wave and offshore wind may generate the maximum renewable available at low compete for the same area of sea. energy using the lowest area ecological risk It may therefore not be possible of land or sea. However, there Figure 5 shows the estimated to achieve the maximum annual are other economic, social proportions of land and sea with energy output identified for each and environmentalA) factors Onshore that wind B) Bioenergy/solar farms high, medium and low/unknown technology in TableA) 2. Onshoremay wind be relevant when locating B) Bioenergy/solar farms ecological sensitivity to the renewable energy, such as technologies we have mapped. This In this study we have capped the landscape considerations or grid does not account for other spatial amount of agricultural land we connection constraints, which constraints to deployment. assume is available in the UK for may make certain19.2% technologies High sensitivity 14.9% High sensitivity energy production19.2% at 350,000 ha, Highmore sensitivityappropriate or desirable in 14.9% High sensitivity It should be noted that there taking account of potential specific locations. In future, it may is likely to be competition for impacts on food production and also 63.4%become possible to deploy Medium sensitiivty 33.8% Medium sensitiivty space between some renewable land-use63.4% change 9. multiple technologies17.4% within the 33.8% 17.4% Medium sensitiivty Medium sensitiivty technologies. For instance, solar same area as “energy parks”, so 51.3% farms and bioenergy crops could In some cases, it is appropriate that competition for space may Low/unknown sensitivity51.3% Low/unknown sensitivity both be sited on agricultural land, to prioritise land or sea for the Low/unknownbecome less of a concern.sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity and marine renewables such as most efficient technology,A) to Onshore wind B) Bioenergy/solar farms

Figure 5. Estimated proportions of the UK with high, medium and low/unknown ecological sensitivity to renewable technologies. NB Does not include other spatial constraints to deployment. A) Onshore wind B) Bioenergy/solar farms 19.2% High sensitivity 14.9% High sensitivity

A) Onshore wind B) Bioenergy/solar63.4% farms C) MediumOffshore sensitiivty wind 33.8% Medium sensitiivty A) Onshore wind A) Onshore windB) Bioenergy/solar17.4% farmsB) C)Bioenergy/solar Offshore wind farms D) Tidal C) Offshore wind D) Tidal 51.3% Low/unknown sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity 19.2% High sensitivity 14.9% High sensitivity

High sensitivity High sensitivity14.9% High sensitivity 14.9% HighHigh sensitivity sensitivity High sensitivity 63.4% Medium sensitiivty19.2% 33.8% 19.2% Medium sensitiivty 17.4% High sensitivity26.7% High sensitivity25.1% 26.7% 25.1% 63.4% Medium63.4% sensitiivty 51.3% Medium33.8% sensitiivty C) OffshoreMedium48.0% wind33.8% sensitiivty MediumMedium sensitiivty D)sensitiivty Tidal 54.8% Medium sensitiivty Low/unknown sensitivity17.4% 17.4% Low/unknown48.0% sensitivity Medium sensitiivty 54.8% Medium sensitiivty 20.2% 51.3% 25.3%51.3% 20.2% Low/unknown sensitivity Low/unknown25.3% sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity Low/unknownLow/unknown sensitivity sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity Low/unknownHigh sensitivity sensitivity High sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity 26.7% 25.1% 48.0% Medium sensitiivty 54.8% Medium sensitiivty 20.2% 25.3% Low/unknown sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity C) Offshore wind D) Tidal D) TidalE) Wave E) Wave E) Wave C) Offshore wind C) Offshore wind D) Tidal D) Tidal E) Wave High sensitivity High sensitivity High sensitivity High sensitivity 26.7% 25.1% 26.4% 26.4% High51.5% sensitivity 26.4% High sensitivity MediumHigh sensitivitysensitiivty 48.0% High 54.8%sensitivity MediumHigh51.5% sensitivity sensitiivty Medium sensitiivty 51.5%25.1% MediumMedium sensitiivty sensitiivty 25.1% 26.7% 26.7% 22.1% 20.2% 22.1% 22.1% Low/unknown sensitivity 25.3% 48.0% Medium48.0% sensitiivty Medium54.8% sensitiivty MediumLow/unknown54.8% sensitiivty sensitivity Medium sensitiivty Low/unknown sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity 20.2% 20.2% 25.3% 25.3% Low/unknown sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity

E) Wave 14 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision E) Wave E) Wave

High sensitivity 26.4% 51.5% Medium sensitiivty High sensitivity High sensitivity 26.4% 26.4% 22.1% 51.5% 51.5% Low/unknown sensitivity Medium sensitiivty Medium sensitiivty 22.1% 22.1% Low/unknown sensitivity Low/unknown sensitivity Our findings: results of the spatial analysis Peter de Kievith (shutterstock.com)

As well as mapping where renewables could be located on land and at sea, we estimated the amount of energy that could be produced from technologies such as rooftop solar – which has low risks for wildlife.

Key findings of the 246 TWh/year with low ecological Our results also show very spatial analysis risk (taking account of impacts high potential for offshore wind In total, the spatial analysis on food production and land-use technologies with low ecological indicates that between 5,558 and change), and onshore wind up to risk, generating up to 5,673 TWh/ 6,277 TWh/year could be generated 140 TWh/year. Combined, the joint year – equivalent to almost three with low ecological risk by these generation potential for these two and a half times the UK’s current renewable energy technologies established technologies is final energy consumption. The in the UK. The UK’s final energy equivalent to approximately a majority of sea areas identified as consumption in 2014 was 1661 quarter of the UK’s current final suitable are far from the shore, so TWh10, suggesting that, if energy consumption – and greater in the case of offshore wind would appropriately sited, approximately than the UK’s current annual require the commercialisation of four times the UK’s current final electricity consumption. floating turbines which can be energy consumption could be used in deeper waters (see page generated from renewables, with We have not mapped rooftop solar 21). However it is important to low ecological risk. as part of this research, but we note that data on the distribution estimate this could contribute a of marine species is limited, Our results show significant further 182 TWh/yr. Small-scale therefore exact figures could scope for the increased use of all renewable energy schemes change substantially as data renewable technologies analysed such as rooftop solar typically improves, and understanding within areas of low ecological involve low ecological risk, and of the ecological risks (or other sensitivity. In particular, there is also offer opportunities for public constraints) associated with major potential for onshore wind, engagement in climate action, floating wind technology increases. floating wind turbines and solar for instance through individual or farms. We estimate that solar community ownership. farms could generate up to

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 15 Niall Benvie (rspb-images.com) Niall Benvie

Black Law wind farm in Scotland (pictured) has been well-managed for nature conservation. Our research shows more than three times the current level of onshore wind in Scotland could be achieved with low risk for wildlife.

Renewable energy Whilst our research shows turbines due to high ecological in the four countries that all countries in the UK sensitivities in shallower of the UK have potential for significant waters, up to 115 TWh/year Different parts of the UK deployment of renewable could be generated at low have varying opportunities for energy, based on currently ecological risk if sited carefully, renewable energy due to available available data, some particular with much of this capacity off natural resources, different levels areas of opportunity in different the coast of England. Further of physical and policy constraints countries have been identified: capacity could also be unlocked and ecological sensitivities. The through the development of UK Government and Devolved England floating turbines. Administrations also have different c Both onshore wind and c Tidal stream and wave power powers enabling them to shape solar energy have substantial could unlock further renewable the energy mix. Whilst the UK potential for growth in harmony energy potential and provide Government largely retains the with nature. Out of a potential a reliable, sustainable source powers to provide economic 140 TWh/year onshore wind of energy if commercialised in incentives for renewable energy, at low ecological risk across harmony with nature. powers to consent individual the UK, 61% is in England, projects and set planning policy that could power over 20 Scotland are generally devolved. Devolved million homesii. There is c Onshore wind, which has Administrations also have various particular opportunity for the already shown strong progress powers relating to housing, development of solar energy in Scotland, could continue environmental regulation and with low ecological risk in the to develop in harmony with energy efficiency – enabling them south-west of England. nature. Up to 41 TWh/year to promote low carbon energy. c Whilst there are real challenges could be generated if carefully with siting fixed offshore wind planned, more than trebling

ii Based on average domestic electricity consumption of 3.95 MWh/year11.

16 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Our findings: results of the spatial analysis Genevieve Leaper (rspb-images.com)

In Wales, threatened species such as curlews (pictured) are vulnerable to impacts from renewable energy development. Important populations of these species are often found outside of designated sites, meaning that sensitive siting is crucial to avoid impacts.

generation from 2014 levels12. arrays at low ecological risk it is critical that projects avoid Repowering existing well- was found to be in Wales, with impacts on sensitive habitats planned sites may be an the potential to power over nine and species. opportunity to increase capacity million homes. at low ecological impact. c Key environmental risks are Northern Ireland c There is very limited capacity likely to relate to tidal range c Whilst only 3% of areas for for fixed offshore wind (up power, which if developed as onshore wind at low ecological to 2.3 GW installed capacity) shore-to-shore barrages, are sensitivity are located in in shallow waters without likely to significantly damage Northern Ireland, this represents significant risks to wildlife, important intertidal habitats. an opportunity for 3.5 TWh/year unless knowledge of impacts Whilst the technology is generation – or approximately improves, enabling ecologically in its infancy and no post- a doubling of current installed sustainable development. In construction monitoring capacity to 1.3 GW13. the long term, however, there is has yet taken place to allow c Significant areas are also vast potential for floating wind understanding of impacts, available for solar PV arrays, in deeper waters. a limited number of tidal with the potential to generate c There are also large areas lagoon sites may provide good up to 15.9 TWh/year, equivalent potentially suitable for wave opportunities for reliable low to double Northern Ireland’s energy generation at low carbon power, if impacts can total annual energy demand in ecological risk, if the industry be mitigated. 2014 iii. is supported to enable c Whilst most large-scale hydro More detailed breakdowns of the commercialisation. generation is in Scotland, estimated potential in areas of Wales has seen rapid growth of low ecological sensitivity across Wales small-scale hydro. Small-scale the UK can be found in the full c Over 15% of the potential hydropower can contribute to Technical Report6. UK area for field-scale solar a sustainable energy mix, but iii Based on figures of 7,807 GWh for Northern Ireland’s total final consumption in 201411.

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 17 Steve Knell (rspb-images.com)

We have developed three scenarios for the UK’s energy future that meet 2050 climate targets in harmony with nature, using high levels of renewable energy – showing that this can be done, based on currently available evidence. Our scenarios: UK energy futures for 2050

Using the DECC 2050 Calculator technologies rather than other risk in each scenario. This is (see page 8), we have developed low carbon technologies such because we have taken other three “low ecological risk” energy as nuclear power and CCS factors into account, including scenarios for 2050. They each technologies, which are reliant cost implications of different deliver an emissions reduction of on the continued extraction of routes to decarbonisation at least 80% against 1990 levels, limited resources. CCS is then and the need to gain further maintain security of supply and are prioritised over nuclear power, understanding of the potential estimated to carry similar costs to recognising risks around long- ecological impacts of some other decarbonisation pathways term storage of nuclear waste technologies. presented in the Calculator. Each and other considerations such scenario therefore balances the as opportunities for CCS to This section presents the three different elements of the energy decarbonise other sectors of the scenarios, then provides some trilemma (see Figure 1). The three economy (see Technical discussion of their key features and scenarios suggest possible routes Report6 for further discussion). assumptions. See Appendix for full that the UK could follow to meet See page 25 for discussion of CCS details of renewable and low carbon its climate targets in harmony with power in the scenarios. technologies included in each of the nature, whilst recognising there scenarios. is not a single prescriptive low Please note: we have not ecological risk scenario. necessarily used the maximum levels of each renewable Within each of the scenarios, technology that we estimate can we have prioritised renewable be achieved with low ecological

18 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Our scenarios: UK energy futures for 2050 Zoonar GmbH / Alamy

The mixed renewables scenario includes a diverse range of renewable energy, both onshore and offshore.

Scenario 1. Mixed renewables significant opportunities for these air-source heat pumps. There is technologies. The scenario also limited use of CCS power stations, A diverse portfolio of includes tidal stream technologies, alongside electricity imports renewables, both on and wave power, and moderate levels via interconnection with other offshore. of bioenergy (assumed to be countries, energy storage schemes, sourced using robust sustainability demand-side responseiv, and a This scenario includes high criteria). Smaller-scale technologies limited number of tidal range and levels of onshore wind, offshore include small-scale hydropower, (existing refurbished) large-scale wind (both fixed and floating small-scale wind, solar panels hydropower schemes. turbines) and solar PV, given the for hot water, ground-source and iv Tariffs and schemes to incentivise consumers (the “demand-side”) to lower their electricity use at peak times, for example through using smart meters, enabling more flexible energy usage.

Electricity supply technologies:

Onshore wind Fixed offshore wind Floating offshore wind Solar Wave Tidal stream Hydroelectric power stations Biomass power stations Small-scale wind Tidal range CCS Electricity imports

Total electricity demand: 459 TWh/yr

Figure 6: 2050 electricity supply mix in the mixed renewables scenario (TWh/year). To see how this relates to numbers of installations, see Appendix.

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 19

Electricity supply technologies:

Onshore wind Fixed offshore wind Floating offshore wind Solar Wave Tidal stream Hydroelectric power stations Biomass power stations Small-scale wind Tidal range CCS Electricity imports

Total electricity demand: 445 TWh/yr

Electricity supply technologies:

Onshore wind Fixed offshore wind Solar Wave Tidal stream Hydroelectric power stations Biomass power stations Small-scale wind Tidal range Geothermal CCS Electricity imports

Total electricity demand: 465 TWh/yr Electricity supply technologies: Niall Benvie (rspb-images.com) Niall Benvie Onshore wind Fixed offshore wind Floating offshore wind Solar Wave Tidal stream The high marine renewables scenario includes high levels of technologiesHydroelectric such as power offshore stations wind, wave and tidal stream. Biomass power stations Small-scale wind Scenario 2. renewables and onshore renewable Similar to the mixed renewables High marine renewables technologies. Tidal rangescenario, there is some use of High levels of marine CCS bioenergy and high uptake of low technologies, including No commercial CCS power stations carbon heat technologies such substantial floating wind, wave are included in this scenario, as Electricityas ground-source imports and air-source and tidal streams. the more consistent energy that heat pumps. Electricity imports can be supplied usingTotal floating electricity demand:are assumed 459 TWh/yr via interconnection The dominant technology in wind technology helps to maintain with other countries, alongside this scenario is floating offshore security of supply – meaning that energy storage and demand-side wind, supplying around 50% of generation capacity from CCS response schemes. total annual electricity demand, power stations is not required (see alongside growth in other marine page 24 for further discussion).

Electricity supply technologies:

Onshore wind Fixed offshore wind Floating offshore wind Solar Wave Tidal stream Hydroelectric power stations Biomass power stations Small-scale wind Tidal range CCS Electricity imports

Total electricity demand: 445 TWh/yr

Figure 7: 2050 electricity supply mix in the high marine renewables scenario (TWh/year). To see how this relates to numbers of installations, see Appendix.

20 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision

Electricity supply technologies:

Onshore wind Fixed offshore wind Solar Wave Tidal stream Hydroelectric power stations Biomass power stations Small-scale wind Tidal range Geothermal CCS Electricity imports

Total electricity demand: 465 TWh/yr Our scenarios: UK energy futuresSection for heading 2050 Len Collection / Alamy

Floating offshore wind turbines (pictured) could unlock significant renewable energy capacity in the UK with low ecological risk, but research is needed to better understand impacts and identify appropriate sites.

Unlocking offshore wind energy with floating Whilst considerable progress has to establish impacts and identify wind turbines been made, with around 5 GW mitigation options. It is vital that currently constructed14, significant this is invested in if the floating Our analysis shows potential for overlap between some sites and wind industry is to avoid the major significant growth of established internationally important areas environmental challenges currently renewables technologies such as for protected seabirds and other being faced by offshore wind onshore wind and solar energy, marine wildlife are presenting the developers. providing opportunities for rapid industry and consenting bodies decarbonisation. In the long term with major challenges. Another potential advantage of however, new technologies such floating wind turbines is that they as floating wind turbines could Investment in floating turbines, are expected to achieve high be transformative in generating which can be installed in deeper capacity factors, due to consistent renewable energy in harmony water further offshore, could unlock strong winds far offshore. They with nature. significant renewable energy can potentially provide a more potential away from sensitive consistent source of power, helping The UK has one of the largest areas such as seabird breeding to maintain security of energy offshore wind resources in areas. Further ecological data is supply. There could be interactions Europe, and has begun to required to increase confidence with other marine industries such as exploit this through “fixed” that sites further offshore are fishing that may become apparent turbines in shallow waters. suitable, and monitoring is needed as the technology develops.

The RSPB’s vision2050 Energy for the Vision UK’s energy future 21 Electricity supply technologies:

Onshore wind Fixed offshore wind Floating offshore wind Solar Wave Tidal stream Hydroelectric power stations Biomass power stations Small-scale wind Tidal range CCS Electricity imports

Total electricity demand: 459 TWh/yr

Scenario 3. High onshore renewables High levels of onshore Electricity supply technologies: technologies including onshore wind and solar PV. Andy Hay (rspb-images.com) OnshoreIn this wind scenario, onshore wind and Fixed solaroffshore PV accountwind for 33% of annual electricity supply. It is assumed Floatingthat o ftherefshore is wind less progress in the Solar development of marine renewable Wave technologies, with no deployment of floating wind and limited Tidal streamdeployment of wave and tidal Hydroelectricstream energy.power stations

BiomassGiven power the lowerstations levels of marine Small-scalerenewables, wind which are assumed to deliver high capacity factors, there Tidal range is a greater need for CCS power CCS stations – which also supply 33% Electricityof total imports annual electricity supply.

Unlike the other scenarios, it is Total electricity demand:assumed 445 that TWh/yr geothermal electricity is successfully developed as an energy source in the UK, and that The high onshore renewables scenario includes high levels of 1 GW geothermal electricity technologies such as onshore wind and solar PV. capacity is installed by 2050.

Electricity supply technologies:

Onshore wind Fixed offshore wind Solar Wave Tidal stream Hydroelectric power stations Biomass power stations Small-scale wind Tidal range Geothermal CCS Electricity imports

Total electricity demand: 465 TWh/yr

Figure 8: 2050 electricity supply mix in the high onshore renewables scenario (TWh/year). To see how this relates to numbers of installations, see Appendix.

22 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Our scenarios: UK energy futuresSection for heading 2050 Ernie Janes (rspb-images.com)

Siting of solar farms requires careful consideration to avoid conflict with other land uses. Once installed, they could potentially benefit wildlife, as well as allowing agricultural activities, such as grazing.

Sustainable land use and On suitable sites, there are often of protection. This is part of a wider solar energy in the UK opportunities to manage solar issue of how the UK transitions Solar panels on urban rooftops farms to benefit wildlife. For to a more sustainable agricultural are now a common sight, and are example, habitats can be managed and food system. As solar farms also increasingly common in our to boost insect numbers, provide are temporary installations, land countryside. Whilst solar farms feeding and nesting opportunities can also be brought back into offer an efficient way to harvest for birds and small mammals, and production if required and may renewable energy, siting requires enhance other ecosystem services benefit from a period of “rest” to careful consideration to avoid such as carbon storage, pest improve soils. conflict with other land uses. control and pollination. We have taken a precautionary Our scenarios assume that Any change of land use comes approach to estimating the no solar farms are located in with the potential risk of indirect proportion of agricultural land areas protected under nature land use change. If solar farms available for energy generation in conservation legislation. are deployed on agricultural the UK, taking account of potential Unfortunately, valuable habitat land, possible impacts on food impacts on food production and such as our dwindling resource production should be taken into land-use change. We achieved this of unimproved grassland is account. Some agricultural uses, by assuming that a cap of often undesignated, and there such as grazing, are still possible 350,000 ha (equivalent to 1.4% is a lack of data about where it between panels, although this is of the total UK land area) is is located. To avoid damage to likely to be at a lower level than applied, in line with estimates such sites, it is essential that before installation. from reputable sources for the thorough Environmental Impact amount of agricultural land that Assessments of proposed projects It is important to understand can be sustainably used for energy are carried out and relevant and minimise potential negative production (see the Technical stakeholders are consulted. displacement impacts, especially Report for further details and to areas that may have lower levels references6).

The RSPB’s vision2050 Energy for the Vision UK’s energy future 23 Energy demand for transport currently accounts for 38% of total final energy consumption in the Radharc Images / Alamy Images / Radharc UK17. In our scenarios, there is a significant shift to public transport, and by 2050 all domestic car travel uses low emission vehicles such as electric cars. There is a major shift towards electrified passenger trains, rail freight and electric buses, and there are significant efficiency improvements in the commercial transport sector, including international shipping and aviation.

International aviation and shipping are not included in the UK’s legally binding 80% target. These sectors are reliant on fuels derived from oil, for which there are Each of the low ecological risk scenarios entails a strong shift towards currently few viable alternatives. the electrification of heat and transport, through technologies such as Biofuels are often presented as a ground-source and air-source heat pumps and electric vehicles sustainable alternative; however (pictured). at current levels of demand there are significant ecological risks The importance of demand and improving energy associated with the production of energy demand efficiency are also important to the volume of feedstocks required. reduction for ensure that the energy system is Additionally, some feedstocks do conservation affordable in the future. This finding not deliver genuine emissions Each of the low ecological risk is supported by other studies, reductions (see the Technical scenarios assumes that the UK which suggest that reducing Report6 for further discussion). implements ambitious energy- energy demand is likely to be a There is an urgent need to develop saving measures and significantly cost-effective way of reducing sustainable alternatives to oil, reduces overall energy demand. emissions and meeting the UK’s alongside efficiency improvements Measures include improvements climate targets15. and policy interventions to in the energy efficiency of reduce emissions from oil-using lighting and appliances, as well as Heat and transport in sectors. In the low ecological risk significantly improved insulation the low ecological risk scenarios, growth of the aviation in buildings, so that less energy scenarios sector is constrained as far as is is wasted. By 2050, the UK’s final Each scenario entails a strong possible within the parameters of energy demand, across the three shift towards the electrification of the DECC 2050 Calculator model. scenarios, is reduced by more than heating and transport, powered by a third: from 1661 TWh/year in 2015 renewable or low carbon sources. Energy security in the low to between 1063 – 1092 TWh/year Currently, almost half of UK energy ecological risk scenarios in 2050. The range accounts for the demand is used for heating16, so Switching to renewable energy differing assumptions made about changing the way we heat our can increase the UK’s energy energy demand reduction across homes and businesses is crucial to security by reducing our reliance the three scenarios. reducing emissions. We assumed on imported fossil fuels. However, that heating is largely electrified there are challenges associated Reducing overall energy demand in the scenarios, with a limited with the weather-related variability reduces ecological risks, as amount of gas or biogas used of renewable energy sources. energy-saving measures lower predominantly in combined heat A diverse mix of renewable the need for new energy and power (CHP) systems, along technologies, as in the low infrastructure which can pose with high uptake of air and ground- ecological risk scenarios, would risks to biodiversity. Our research source heat pumps for heat and help to reduce that variability. has shown that reducing energy hot water. Energy storage technologies such

24 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Our scenarios: UK energy futures for 2050

as batteries, together with demand- alongside renewables, although Many of these options are reduction, demand-side response, a they can be excluded from the not currently widely available smarter, more flexible grid system, scenarios if there is particularly commercially, so investment in and interconnection with other strong progress with renewable research and development of countries are key components in energy deployment, particularly these technologies and targeted each of the scenarios, helping to in the marine environment, or innovation support is needed to balance supply and demand, and energy storage – such as in the ensure long-term security of supply maintain security of supply. high marine renewables scenario. in harmony with nature. CCS technologies also offer To assess security of supply opportunities for decarbonising Fossil fuels in the UK’s (whether supply meets demand the industrial sector, so could have energy future over a given period), the DECC a role in our energy mix beyond The low ecological risk scenarios 2050 Calculator applies a “stress electricity generation. minimise the use of fossil fuels test”, modelling the impact of five as far as is possible within the cold days with low wind. The scope However, given the risks associated parameters of the DECC 2050 of the grid balancing challenges with CCS (see next section), CCS Calculator. They each assume during such weather conditions power stations are regarded in that coal is entirely phased out can then be understood. Each of the low ecological risk scenarios by 2050, and that any CCS power the low ecological risk scenarios as a “Plan B” option. Priority stations use natural gas or biogas. successfully balances supply and should be given to renewable Oil and natural gas (outside of the demand, meaning there is no energy, energy storage, demand CCS sector) are reduced as far requirement for additional back-up reduction, demand-side response, as possible, however the DECC generationv. interconnection and smart grid 2050 Calculator does not enable development, as there is a higher the full electrification of heat Our analysis shows that CCS degree of confidence that these and domestic transport. Figure technologies may play a role options can reduce emissions with 9 shows the levels of renewable in ensuring security of supply low ecological risk. energy compared to fossil fuels in v The DECC 2050 Calculator provides a high-level indication of security of supply, but does not model the hourly, daily or seasonal operation of the grid. It therefore does not accurately represent the peaks and troughs of electricity demand. Further research would be needed forLow a more Ecological detailed understanding Risk 2050 of Energy the security Scenarios of supply considerations in relation to our three scenarios. (covering electricity, heat and domestic surface transport) *excludes electricity imports

Renewables Oil Gas CCS 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 88% 800 70% 56% 600 400

UK Energy Supply (TWh/yr) 33% 21% 200 2% 8% 7% 2% 2% 8% 3% 0 Mixed renewables High Marine Renewables High Onshore Renewables

Figure 9: UK 2050 energy supply in the Low Ecological Risk scenarios covering electricity, heat and domestic surface transport, excluding electricity imports (NB each scenario has a different total annual supply as different energy mixes will produce different amounts of electricity to export over the course of a year).

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 25 Andy Hay (rspb-images.com)

Fossil fuel extraction, such as open-cast coal mining (pictured), can have significant ecological impacts, and sites are not always properly restored. Coal is entirely phased out in all of the low ecological risk scenarios.

the low ecological risk scenarios, risk “lock in” to a high carbon c Pollution caused by combustion covering electricity, heat and infrastructure, jeopardising and transportation of fuels domestic surface transport. achievement of climate targets or chemicals associated with c Fossil fuel extraction: if CCS extraction; eg oil spills can CCS power stations feature in power stations are developed at have catastrophic impacts on the mixed renewables and high scale, the continued extraction marine areas and pollution of onshore renewables scenarios, and combustion of fossil fuels groundwater which assume there is less poses direct risks to wildlife, c Overuse of water supplies, progress with marine renewable including risks associated with putting pressure on sensitive energy. However, there are risks new, unconventional forms of hydrological ecosystems surrounding the use of CCS in fossil fuel extraction, such as c Failure to restore areas future energy scenarios, both for fracking18. following fossil fuel extraction wildlife and for the delivery of to a standard required to deliver climate targets. These fall into two Direct risks to the environment benefits for wildlife. categories: associated with the continued use of fossil fuels include: Given these risks, the role of fossil c Non-commercialisation: if CCS fuels – even when used with CCS is invested in at the expense c Habitat loss, fragmentation technology – should be minimised of developing other security and disturbance caused by in the UK’s energy future. of supply options such as extraction, and increased energy storage, and CCS fails human activity in ecologically to become viable at scale, we sensitive areas

vi These cost estimates cover the whole of the energy system, including capital costs, operating expenditure and fuel costs for each of the 130 technologies in the DECC 2050 Costs Calculator. Taxes and subsidies are not captured in the 2050 Costs Calculator, meaning that the tool cannot be used to consider these effects.

26 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Cultura Creative (RF) / Cultura Creative Alamy

Our research shows that meeting the UK’s climate targets in harmony with nature can be achieved at a similar cost to other scenarios in the DECC 2050 Calculator.

Affordable energy in £6,500 per person on top of the scenario is estimated to cost harmony with nature cost of the UK’s current energy 9.5% above business-as-usual. Estimating the costs of different system, or a 141% increase c the high onshore renewables energy pathways is complex, as a on business-as-usual. Other scenario is estimated to cost wide range of variables need to be externalities of fossil fuel use, 9.4% above business-as-usual. taken into account. The DECC 2050 such as the health impacts of air Calculator provides an estimate, pollution, are also not accounted Please note: these are indicative for any given scenario, of the for in the business-as-usual estimates and should not be additional cost to societyvi above scenario. Meeting climate targets regarded as precise calculations the approximate cost of the energy is therefore almost certainly cost- of costs. For example, they system today, in British pounds effective in the long term. do not take account of the per person per year. It should not savings that could be incurred be confused with additional cost The DECC 2050 Calculator by avoiding conflicts with the to household energy bills, which indicates that the three low natural environment through cannot be estimated using the ecological risk scenarios are careful siting and strategic DECC 2050 Calculator. achievable at a similar cost to other planning, such as litigation example decarbonisation pathways costs. Nor do they take account It is important to note that the cost provided in the Calculator tool. The of the value of ecosystem of failing to tackle climate change other pathways reduce emissions services generated or protected is not factored into the estimate by at least 80% for an average by delivering the UK’s climate provided for the current cost of the cost increase of 9.3% above targets in harmony with nature. UK’s energy system (£4,615 per business-as-usual. By comparison: More detailed economic analysis person per year). The influential is recommended to explore this Stern Review19 estimates that c the mixed renewables scenario area further. failing to tackle climate change is estimated to cost 8.2% could reduce global GDP by up to above business-as-usual. 20%, equivalent to an additional c the high marine renewables

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 27 Our vision: a low carbon, high biodiversity energy system

The RSPB’s vision for the UK’s energy future is one that is low carbon and which protects, and where possible enhances, biodiversity. A key finding of our research is that well-sited renewable energy projects such as onshore wind, solar PV and floating

Ed Marshall (rspb-images.com) offshore wind arrays are central to decarbonising our energy supply, and should play a prominent role in the UK’s energy future. Small-scale projects, such as rooftop solar, are also able to deliver renewable energy typically with low ecological impact, and should form part of our future energy mix.

The three low ecological risk scenarios presented in this report illustrate routes that could be followed to “green” the energy trilemma – by meeting climate change targets and decarbonising our energy supply affordably, securely, AND in harmony with nature. In future, new technologies are likely to become available that will present different options and suggest alternative routes to decarbonisation.

Whilst each scenario takes a different approach in terms of the energy supply mix, there are several key findings that apply across the three scenarios. These are:

c massive strides in demand reduction and energy efficiency are important to meeting climate targets and ensuring that the energy system is affordable in the future. c available technologies such as onshore wind and solar are key to decarbonisation and well-sited projects should be supported. If sited, designed and managed appropriately, the deployment of these technologies can continue to The RSPB’s vision for the UK’s energy future is one that is low carbon grow without posing significant and which protects, and where possible enhances, biodiversity risks to wildlife.

28 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Our findings: results of the spatial analysis David Norton (rspb-images.com)

This report demonstrates how the UK can meet its 2050 climate targets affordably and securely, and in harmony with nature. c innovation, research and To build on this research, Renewable technologies allow us development of technologies further evidence is needed to harness the energy from nature; such as energy storage and to better understand the this should be done in a way that smart grid networks are ecological impacts of also respects nature. We want needed to ensure long-term renewable technologies, to see the UK deliver its climate security of supply improve understanding of the change targets in a way that c there are opportunities for distribution of sensitive species protects and enhances the natural new technologies such as and habitats (particularly in world, rather than increasing the floating wind turbines to unlock the marine environment), and already significant pressures upon massive renewable energy to model in greater spatial and it. The recommendations below capacity in the UK, potentially temporal detail how the UK can outline how this vision for the UK’s with low ecological risk, if those decarbonise its energy supply energy future could be achieved. technologies can be developed and deliver its climate targets in a sustainable way. with lowest ecological risk.

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 29 Recommendations: 10 steps to meet the UK’s climate targets in harmony with nature The low ecological risk 2050 maintaining public support for the and habitats, based on current energy scenarios presented in low carbon transition and ensuring understanding of ecological this report demonstrate that that the UK’s energy system impacts. This includes high levels protecting the natural world can be delivers for people, wildlife and of renewable energy, for which the compatible with decarbonisation the climate. UK has some of the best resource of the UK’s energy system using potential in Europe, and which can high levels of renewable energy, 1. Set the ambition: play a key role in our future and can be done in line with other 100% low carbon energy energy mix. A long-term vision key policy aims in the energy by 2050 for the UK’s energy future is also trilemma. However, achieving this To mitigate the worst impacts of crucial to support investment and will require concerted action by climate change on wildlife and would facilitate the planning of the UK Government and Devolved people alike, the UK Government energy infrastructure in harmony Administrations, industry and and Devolved Administrations with nature. wider society. should set a bold target of 100% low carbon energy by 2050 2. Plan for nature: identify Using the results of our research, (covering electricity, heat and suitable sites the following recommendations domestic surface transport), and Suitable sites for renewable energy have been developed which, if support EU and global efforts to with low ecological sensitivity are followed, would help to embed do the same. This would provide a limited and valuable resource. ecological sustainability within the a clear framework for the long- Governments have a key role energy trilemma. Doing so would term direction of travel towards a to play in facilitating strategic have a range of benefits, including low carbon energy system. Our spatial planning, informed by helping to reduce potential research demonstrates that with robust strategic environmental conflicts between renewable careful planning to avoid important assessment, in order to steer energy and nature conservation, sites for wildlife, meeting the development towards the least facilitating cost-effective growth of UK’s climate targets is possible ecologically sensitive sites, renewable energy across the UK, with low risk for sensitive wildlife thereby ensuring that this resource is maximised. Good strategic planning also helps to minimise planning conflicts, leading to more efficient outcomes. This report sets out a mapping methodology that could support strategic planning at national, regional and local scales by identifying resource opportunities, constraints, and ecological sensitivities for renewable energy development. [email protected] Developments should seek to avoid the most important sites for wildlife such as Natura 2000 sites, which are protected under the EU Birds and Habitats Directives, as well as nationally designated sites such as SSSIs, ASSIs and locally important wildlife sites. Thorough environmental assessment of potential site-specific impacts To tackle climate change, the UK should transition to 100% low (alone and in combination with carbon energy by 2050. other developments) should be

30 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Recommendations: 10 steps to meet the UK’s climate targets in harmony with nature Genevieve Leaper (rspb-images.com)

carried out, and a precautionary approach adopted if impacts on vulnerable species or habitats are unclear or unknown. As well as identifying the least ecologically sensitive sites, it is important to identify opportunities for biodiversity enhancement alongside renewable energy generation. For example, onshore wind and solar farms can be managed to provide habitat for wildlife, and power lines can be managed to support “wildlife corridors”. 3. Develop roadmaps for decarbonisation in harmony with nature Having set the overall ambition for a transition to 100% low carbon energy, and identified To switch to 100% low carbon energy in harmony with nature, we suitable sites for renewable urgently need a better ecological evidence base – such as how energy deployment with low kittiwakes (pictured) interact with offshore wind farms. ecological risk, it is important to strategically consider the energy mix that will enable this ambition 4. Improve the ecological evidence base comparable with other schemes. to be reached in harmony with This can be addressed through nature. The mapping methodology Planning the UK’s energy future in greater use of planning conditions set out in this report enables an harmony with nature will be quicker, to require standardised monitoring, understanding of the indicative easier and more sustainable if combined with initiatives such capacity of different renewable it is based on a solid ecological as the Scottish Windfarm Bird technologies that can be evidence base. Our analysis shows Steering Group (SWBSG) and achieved with low impact on that data on the distribution of the Offshore Renewables Joint wildlife. Combined with scenario sensitive species is incomplete, Industry Programme (ORJIP), to modelling, the UK Government particularly offshore, making it identify opportunities for research, and Devolved Administrations harder to identify suitable locations data-sharing and standardisation. could use this approach to for renewable energy. Investment develop energy roadmaps, in surveys and remote-tracking Thirdly, project assessments could indicating the mix of technologies of sensitive species, especially be streamlined through more that will be deployed to meet in the marine environment, so systematic storage of environmental climate targets in an ecologically that we better understand the information. Currently, large sustainable way. most important areas for wildlife, amounts of data gathered at project The development of roadmaps would help to pave the way for level are not generally made easily could be achieved through the industries to move forward more accessible to other developers, establishment of a task force, or rapidly and cost-effectively, as well representing a missed opportunity task forces for each UK country, as significantly reducing risks to to reduce planning barriers. The bringing together expertise from wildlife and habitats. UK Government and Devolved the UK Government, Devolved Administrations should improve Administrations, industry and Secondly, understanding of the evidence base by working to civil society. A clear framework the impacts and mitigation address important data gaps, such for how decarbonisation will be options for renewables could be as an updated national seabird delivered in harmony with nature greatly improved through better census. They should work with would ensure that the UK’s low monitoring at existing sites. industry and other stakeholders carbon transition aligns with other Where monitoring does take to standardise data collection key policy aims, such as delivery place, data are often not made where possible, and to facilitate of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. widely available and may not be data-sharing.

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 31 Cultura RM / Alamy Cultura RM /

To limit the need for new energy infrastructure, which can pose risks to wildlife, we need to eliminate energy waste and reduce our overall demand.

5. Eliminate energy waste A key way in which the UK impact technologies. This includes Measures to reduce energy Government and Devolved developing a smarter, more waste are critical to enable Administrations could reduce flexible grid system (see the UK to transition to 100% domestic energy waste is by Recommendation 10), low carbon energy with lowest implementing a zero carbon technologies for energy storage, ecological risk. Energy savings standard for all new homes and and technologies that could unlock and efficiency improvements buildings, which would have significant renewable energy reduce the requirement for new significant co-benefits, including capacity such as floating offshore energy infrastructure, therefore reduced fuel use and associated wind turbines. Novel technologies, helping to avoid associated public health benefits. Policies however, must be accompanied impacts on wildlife. They also should also be adopted that by robust environmental play a key role in ensuring that enable the energy demand-side to assessment and monitoring to energy is affordable over the long compete more equally with energy fully understand ecological risks term. The UK Government and supply, for example by better and mitigation options. Devolved Administrations should incentivising energy storage and designate energy efficiency as a demand-side response through Our analysis shows that CCS National Infrastructure Priorityvii capacity market mechanisms. technologies could play a and implement ambitious policies role in ensuring security of to improve energy efficiency and 6. Promote low carbon, supply alongside renewables. reduce demand. This includes low ecological impact CCS technologies also offer robust efficiency standards for innovation opportunities for decarbonising new buildings, a major programme Many of the technologies needed the industrial sector, and therefore of retrofitting home insulation, to progress towards 100% low could have a role in our energy more efficient lighting and carbon energy in the UK are mix beyond electricity generation. appliances, and measures to already available, such as onshore However, given the risks associated encourage demand-side response. wind and solar PV. However, in with CCS – including the ecological There is also a need to reduce the longer term, our research impacts of fossil fuel extraction and energy waste in electricity and suggests that meeting targets the risk of lock-in to high carbon heat generation, for instance by in harmony with nature and infrastructure – CCS power stations minimising heat loss from power ensuring security of supply is likely should be regarded as a “Plan B” stations and utilising waste heat to require innovation to unlock with priority given to renewable for energy generation. key low carbon, low ecological energy, smart grid development,

vii The Scottish Government designated energy efficiency as a National Infrastructure Priority in June 2015

32 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Recommendations: 10 steps to meet the UK’s climate targets in harmony with nature Ray Kennedy (rspb-images.com)

demand reduction and energy storage.

Low carbon, low ecological impact innovation could be promoted through research and development programmes such as the UK Government’s Catapult centres, through EU-level action such as the European Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan, as well as through devolved schemes such as Wave Energy Scotland. 7. Transform low carbon heat and transport Decarbonisation of the heat and transport sectors is crucial to meeting the UK’s climate targets, yet progress in these areas has, to date, been slow. The UK Government and Devolved Administrations should encourage To make economic incentives work for nature and the climate, progress by adopting policies that support is needed for technologies such as onshore wind and solar. promote a shift to zero carbon These are key to decarbonising quickly and with low risk for wildlife. transport such as electric vehicles, and modal shifts towards public are important in the short term to to create a more level playing field transport and active travel, stimulate the uptake of low carbon in which renewable energy can such as walking and cycling. heat technologies. fairly compete, so that economic Electrified rail transport is also incentives pull in the same direction likely to play an important role in The UK Government and Devolved towards decarbonisation. reducing emissions. Administrations should also consider introducing legislation, Additionally, economic incentives Any use of biomass as a transport such as a Warm Homes Act, setting should be designed so they do fuel must be subject to robust statutory targets for renewable heat not incentivise projects that sustainability standards (see uptake and energy performance of are likely to cause significant Recommendation 9), and should buildings, to encourage progress environmental damage, such as be prioritised for use in sectors that and to provide long term direction tidal barrages. In England, the are most difficult to decarbonise and certainty to industry. Natural Capital Committee could through other means, such as play a key role here, for example by aviation and shipping. In these 8. Make economic being given powers to scrutinise sectors, the UK Government and incentives work for nature the environmental impact of Devolved Administrations must and the climate regulations and incentives, and to look strategically at how emissions The transition to 100% low carbon propose policies for incorporating can be reduced without driving energy in the UK will require the value of nature in decision- unsustainable biofuel production, economic incentives to shape the making. In other UK countries, this for example by encouraging energy mix. In the short term, the could be coordinated by Devolved behavioural change to reduce air UK Government should continue Administrations and the relevant travel demand. to support the onshore wind and statutory nature conservation solar industries, which provide agencies. Incentives to encourage In the heat sector, measures are opportunities for significant communities and individuals to needed to speed up the transition and rapid decarbonisation of begin using small-scale renewable to low carbon technologies such as our electricity supply at low energy, such as rooftop solar, are heat pumps, including incentives, ecological risk, if sited and also important, both for delivering regulations and awareness-raising. managed appropriately. The UK emissions reductions with low Support mechanisms such as the Government also needs to end ecological risk and for increasing Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) perverse subsidies for fossil fuels, public engagement in climate action.

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 33 Chris O’Reilly (rspb-images.com) Chris O’Reilly

To ensure security of supply in 2050, we need a grid network that is fit for the future – including smart grid networks, interconnection and energy storage technologies.

9. Ensure bioenergy prioritise the most efficient between UK countries and supplies are sustainable technologies such as small-scale interconnection with other nations combined heat and power (CHP) will be needed, to optimise Our research shows that bioenergy c genuine wastes and residues how we use renewable energy. could play a role in the UK’s should be prioritised, in Distribution networks will need to energy future in harmony with accordance with the waste become smarter to integrate more nature. However, the demand for hierarchy. decentralised generation and enable bioenergy feedstocks can pose demand-side response. risks to wildlife and habitats, and It is important that any bioenergy must be carefully regulated to feedstocks imported from If the grid network is not developed ensure genuine emissions savings. overseas are subject to similarly in a timely way, it could become a If bioenergy is to form a key part robust sustainability criteria, bottleneck that holds back the low of our future energy mix, five key to protect wildlife and ensure carbon transition. In order to reduce principles must be applied: genuine emission savings. The risks to developers and to help build UK Government and Devolved public support for grid development, c lifecycle emissions assessments Administrations could also do more the UK Government and Devolved should be carried out to ensure to incentivise the use of biomass Administrations should provide genuine emission reductions, in combination with positive more clarity on what national grid and must take into account the habitat management. For example, development is needed, and ensure carbon released when biomass woodlands can be brought that investment plans are aligned is combusted into environmentally sensitive to creating a sustainable energy c all biomass should be subject management to produce biomass system. Stakeholders and the public to strict environmental and benefit declining woodland should have early opportunities to sustainability criteria, and, wildlife, and sustainable biomass feed into grid policy and planning, for woody biomass, only can also be generated from the and development should be FSC certified wood should ecological management planned to avoid impacts on wildlife. be permitted and eligible for of wetlands. Regulators should be encouraged to subsidies. commit resources to environmental c the use of biomass should be 10. Build a grid network fit protection and enhancement limited to available sustainable for the future as well as to stakeholder and supply based on a cap, ensuring To enable the transition to 100% community engagement, which that bioenergy crops do not low carbon energy, the UK’s grid have been shown to reduce public replace natural habitats such network will require significant opposition. Many of these goals as species-rich grasslands investment in new and upgraded could be achieved through more – a process which could be connections, alongside smarter detailed strategic plans for energy supported through strategic system management to integrate supply and grid development, spatial land-use planning new sources of renewable subject to robust strategic c subsidy regimes should electricity. More connection environmental assessment.

34 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Power to the people?

The future of energy affects all of What do you think? Here’s how: us, and the whole of the natural Contact us at world. It is huge, crucial, complex Everyone needs to be part of [email protected], – and ever more pressing, as we this vital conversation. We’d like or you can tweet using start to experience the effects to hear your views and ideas, so #power4nature. of climate change. This report please get in touch and tell us explains the RSPB’s current what you think. contribution to the energy debate. David Broadbent (rsbp-images.com)

This report is the RSPB’s current contribution to the energy debate – we all need to be part of this important conversation. What do you think?

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 35 Appendix: The low ecological risk scenarios

Scenario 1. Mixed renewables Scenario 2. High marine renewables Scenario 3. High onshore renewables Annual Annual Annual Energy supply categories in the DECC Installed Installed Installed energy energy Indicative number of installations energy Indicative number of installations 2050 Calculator capacity Indicative number of installations in 2050* capacity capacity output output in 2050* output in 2050* (GW) (GW) (GW) (TWh/yr) (TWh/yr) (TWh/yr)

Offshore wind 84 331.4 ~14,500 5.8 MW turbines 181.3 715.2 ~31,300 5.8 MW turbines 24 94.7 ~4,100 5.8 MW turbines

Onshore wind 32 84.2 ~12,800 2.5 MW turbines 41 107.9 ~16,400 2.5 MW turbines 42.8 112.6 ~17,100 2.5 MW turbines

~75% of south-facing domestic roofs, ~75% of south-facing domestic roofs, ~50% of south-facing domestic roofs, or ~417 km2 solar Solar panels for electricity 94.7 80.5 122.7 104.3 or ~541 km2 solar farms (if 20% 122.7 104.3 or ~541 km2 solar farms (if 20% farms (if 20% efficient) efficient) efficient)

~524 km of wave devices, ~14,000 ~72 km of wave devices, ~1,930 Wave 5.8 11.4 ~145 km of wave devices, ~3,900 machines 21 41.3 2.9 5.7 machines machines

Tidal stream 5.7 18 ~2,850 2 MW tidal stream devices 20.4 64.2 ~10,200 2 MW tidal stream devices 1. 9 6 ~950 2 MW tidal stream devices

Tidal range 1. 7 3.4 3 small schemes 1. 7 3.4 3 small schemes 1. 7 3.4 3 small schemes

27 1.2 GW CCS power stations (85% CCS power stations 20.9 140 17 1.2 GW CCS power stations (85% load factor) 1. 7 11 1 demo CCS plant 32.4 217 load factor)

Existing large-scale schemes Existing large-scale schemes Existing large-scale schemes refurbished, ~500 MW Hydroelectric power stations 2.1 7 2.1 7 refurbished, ~500 MW new small- 2.1 7 refurbished, ~500 MW new small- new small-scale schemes** scale schemes** scale schemes**

Suitable buildings have ~30% annual 38.5 65% of suitable buildings have ~30% 57.8 (inc. 4.1 Suitable buildings have ~30% annual hot water demand 57.8 (inc. 4.1 Solar panels for hot water 6.6 6.6 hot water demand met by solar 4.4 (inc. 2.8 annual hot water demand met by electricity) met by solar thermal, ~1.6 m2 panels per person electricity) thermal, ~1.6 m2 panels per person electricity) solar thermal, ~1 m2 per person

Only plants built/under construction Only plants built/under construction Biomass power stations 0.6 4.7 Only plants built/under construction in 2007 0.6 4.7 0.6 4.7 in 2007 in 2007

~35,060 km2 used for energy crops, ~3,500 km2 used for energy crops, ~3,500 km2 used for energy crops, around 1.4% of total Bioenergy crops n/a 55 n/a 55 around 1.4% of total UK land area n/a 55 around 1.4% of total UK land area UK land area (similar to 2007) (similar to 2007) (similar to 2007)

~13,000 km2 production land in other ~13,000 km2 production land in other Bioenergy imports n/a 70 ~13,000 km2 production land in other countries n/a 70 n/a 70 countries countries

Waste decreases by 33%, only 3% Waste decreases by 33%, only 3% Waste decreases by 33%, only 3% of waste sent to of waste sent to landfill, recycling of waste sent to landfill, recycling Energy from waste n/a 30 landfill, recycling increases by 70%, energy from waste n/a 30 n/a 30 increases by 70%, energy from waste increases by 70%, energy from waste increases by 7% (on 2007 levels) increases by 7% (on 2007 levels) increases by 7% (on 2007 levels)

Small-scale wind 0.6 1. 3 ~127,000 5 kW turbines 0.6 1. 3 ~127,000 5 kW turbines 0.6 1. 3 ~127,000 5 kW turbines

Equivalent to ~1,250 km2 solar PV in countries exporting Equivalent to ~1,250 km2 solar PV in Equivalent to 810 km2 solar PV in Electricity imports n/a 140 n/a 140 n/a 91 to the UK countries exporting to the UK countries exporting to the UK

Geothermal electricity 0 0 None 0 0 None 1 7 ~100 10 MW plants

*Figures are indicative as technology may improve or average installation size may change throughout the period up to 2050. **In line with precautionary estimates for levels of small-scale hydropower deployment that can be achieved with low ecological risk. See the full Technical Report6 for more details of our approach to and the assumptions underpinning the low ecological risk scenarios.

36 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision Appendix: The low ecological risk scenarios

Scenario 1. Mixed renewables Scenario 2. High marine renewables Scenario 3. High onshore renewables Annual Annual Annual Energy supply categories in the DECC Installed Installed Installed energy energy Indicative number of installations energy Indicative number of installations 2050 Calculator capacity Indicative number of installations in 2050* capacity capacity output output in 2050* output in 2050* (GW) (GW) (GW) (TWh/yr) (TWh/yr) (TWh/yr)

Offshore wind 84 331.4 ~14,500 5.8 MW turbines 181.3 715.2 ~31,300 5.8 MW turbines 24 94.7 ~4,100 5.8 MW turbines

Onshore wind 32 84.2 ~12,800 2.5 MW turbines 41 107.9 ~16,400 2.5 MW turbines 42.8 112.6 ~17,100 2.5 MW turbines

~75% of south-facing domestic roofs, ~75% of south-facing domestic roofs, ~50% of south-facing domestic roofs, or ~417 km2 solar Solar panels for electricity 94.7 80.5 122.7 104.3 or ~541 km2 solar farms (if 20% 122.7 104.3 or ~541 km2 solar farms (if 20% farms (if 20% efficient) efficient) efficient)

~524 km of wave devices, ~14,000 ~72 km of wave devices, ~1,930 Wave 5.8 11.4 ~145 km of wave devices, ~3,900 machines 21 41.3 2.9 5.7 machines machines

Tidal stream 5.7 18 ~2,850 2 MW tidal stream devices 20.4 64.2 ~10,200 2 MW tidal stream devices 1. 9 6 ~950 2 MW tidal stream devices

Tidal range 1. 7 3.4 3 small schemes 1. 7 3.4 3 small schemes 1. 7 3.4 3 small schemes

27 1.2 GW CCS power stations (85% CCS power stations 20.9 140 17 1.2 GW CCS power stations (85% load factor) 1. 7 11 1 demo CCS plant 32.4 217 load factor)

Existing large-scale schemes Existing large-scale schemes Existing large-scale schemes refurbished, ~500 MW Hydroelectric power stations 2.1 7 2.1 7 refurbished, ~500 MW new small- 2.1 7 refurbished, ~500 MW new small- new small-scale schemes** scale schemes** scale schemes**

Suitable buildings have ~30% annual 38.5 65% of suitable buildings have ~30% 57.8 (inc. 4.1 Suitable buildings have ~30% annual hot water demand 57.8 (inc. 4.1 Solar panels for hot water 6.6 6.6 hot water demand met by solar 4.4 (inc. 2.8 annual hot water demand met by electricity) met by solar thermal, ~1.6 m2 panels per person electricity) thermal, ~1.6 m2 panels per person electricity) solar thermal, ~1 m2 per person

Only plants built/under construction Only plants built/under construction Biomass power stations 0.6 4.7 Only plants built/under construction in 2007 0.6 4.7 0.6 4.7 in 2007 in 2007

~35,060 km2 used for energy crops, ~3,500 km2 used for energy crops, ~3,500 km2 used for energy crops, around 1.4% of total Bioenergy crops n/a 55 n/a 55 around 1.4% of total UK land area n/a 55 around 1.4% of total UK land area UK land area (similar to 2007) (similar to 2007) (similar to 2007)

~13,000 km2 production land in other ~13,000 km2 production land in other Bioenergy imports n/a 70 ~13,000 km2 production land in other countries n/a 70 n/a 70 countries countries

Waste decreases by 33%, only 3% Waste decreases by 33%, only 3% Waste decreases by 33%, only 3% of waste sent to of waste sent to landfill, recycling of waste sent to landfill, recycling Energy from waste n/a 30 landfill, recycling increases by 70%, energy from waste n/a 30 n/a 30 increases by 70%, energy from waste increases by 70%, energy from waste increases by 7% (on 2007 levels) increases by 7% (on 2007 levels) increases by 7% (on 2007 levels)

Small-scale wind 0.6 1. 3 ~127,000 5 kW turbines 0.6 1. 3 ~127,000 5 kW turbines 0.6 1. 3 ~127,000 5 kW turbines

Equivalent to ~1,250 km2 solar PV in countries exporting Equivalent to ~1,250 km2 solar PV in Equivalent to 810 km2 solar PV in Electricity imports n/a 140 n/a 140 n/a 91 to the UK countries exporting to the UK countries exporting to the UK

Geothermal electricity 0 0 None 0 0 None 1 7 ~100 10 MW plants

*Figures are indicative as technology may improve or average installation size may change throughout the period up to 2050. **In line with precautionary estimates for levels of small-scale hydropower deployment that can be achieved with low ecological risk. See the full Technical Report6 for more details of our approach to and the assumptions underpinning the low ecological risk scenarios.

The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision 37 References 1. State of Nature Partnership (2013). State of energy-chapter-1-digest-of-united-kingdom-energy- Nature report. rspb.org.uk/Images/stateofnature_ statistics-dukes tcm9-345839.pdf 11. DECC (2015a). Sub-national electricity and gas 2. Pearce-Higgins J & Green R (2014). Birds and consumption statistics. gov.uk/government/ Climate Change: Impacts and Conservation uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/ Responses. Cambridge University Press, file/487893/Sub-national_electricity_and_gas_ Cambridge. consumption_summary_report_2014.pdf 3. Bright JA, Langston RHW, Bullman R, Evans RJ, 12. DECC (2014). Digest of United Kingdom Energy Gardner S, Pearce-Higgins J, & Wilson E (2006). Statistics (DUKES): Renewable electricity in Bird Sensitivity Map to provide locational guidance Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the regions for onshore wind farms in Scotland. A report by of England in 2014. gov.uk/government/uploads/ the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, as system/uploads/attachment_data/file/462357/ part of a programme of work jointly funded by the Regional_renewable_electricity_2014.pdf RSPB and Scottish Natural Heritage. rspb.org.uk/ 13. Ibid. Images/sensitivitymapreport_tcm9-157990.pdf 14. RenewableUK (2016). Offshore Wind Energy 4. BRE (2014) ‘Biodiversity Guidance for Solar Figures. renewableuk.com/en/renewable-energy/ Developments’. Eds G E Parker and L Greene. wind-energy/offshore-wind/index.cfm (Accessed bre.co.uk/filelibrary/pdf/Brochures/NSC- February 2016) Biodiversity-Guidance.pdf 15. Steward T (2014). Demand and Decarbonisation 5. Bowyer C, Tucker G, Nesbit M, Baldock D, Illes A, in 2050: Themes from Scenarios. EPG Working Paquel K. (2015). Delivering Synergies between Paper 1401. projects.exeter.ac.uk/igov/wp- Renewable Energy and Nature Conservation: content/uploads/2014/02/WP-6-Demand-and- Messages for Policy Making up to 2030 and Decarbonisation-in-2050.pdf Beyond. A report for RSPB/BirdLife Europe by the 16. DECC (2013). The Future of Heating: Meeting the Institute for European Environmental Policy. ieep. challenge. gov.uk/government/uploads/system/ eu/assets/1905/Final_25_Nov_RES.pdf uploads/attachment_data/file/190149/16_04-DECC- 6. Roddis P, Gove B, Morrison A, Campbell C, The_Future_of_Heating_Accessible-10.pdf Beresford AE, Teuten E, Dutton A, & Williams LJ 1 7. DECC (2015b). Energy Consumption in the UK (2016). The RSPB’s 2050 energy vision: Meeting (2015). gov.uk/government/uploads/system/ the UK’s climate targets in harmony with nature. uploads/attachment_data/file/449104/ECUK_ Technical Report. Sandy, Bedfordshire, UK: RSPB. Chapter_2_-_Transport_factsheet.pdf rspb.org.uk/energyfutures 18. Moore V, Beresford A, & Gove B (2014). Hydraulic 7. European Commission (2013). ‘Attitudes towards fracturing for shale gas in the UK: Examining the biodiversity.’ ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/flash/ evidence for potential environmental impacts. fl_379_sum_en.pdf Sandy, Bedfordshire, UK: RSPB. rspb.org.uk/Images/ 8. SQW Energy (2010). Renewable and Low-carbon shale_gas_report_evidence_tcm9-365779.pdf Energy Capacity Methodology: Methodology for 19. Stern, N (2007). The Economics of Climate the English Regions. gov.uk/government/uploads/ Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge University system/uploads/attachment_data/file/226175/ Press, Cambridge. renewable_and_low_carbon_energy_capacity_ methodology_jan2010.pdf 9. Lovett AA, Sunnenberg GM, Richter GM, Dailey AG, Riche AB and Karp A (2009). Land use implications of increased biomass production identified by GIS-based suitability and yield mapping for Miscanthus in England. Bioenergy Research 2: 17-28. 10. DECC (2015) Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics, Aggregate energy balances (DUKES 1.1-1.3) Available at: gov.uk/government/statistics/

38 The RSPB’s 2050 Energy Vision David Photo Library / Tipling Alamy

39 CONTACT US

UK HEADQUARTERS The RSPB The Lodge Sandy Bedfordshire SG19 2DL

For further information, contact [email protected]

If you would like a PDF of the full report please go to rspb.org.uk/energyfutures

The RSPB is a member of BirdLife International, a partnership of nature conservation organisations working to give nature a home around the world.

Cover: white-fronted geese and pink-footed geese by Nick Upton (rspb-images.com)

The RSPB speaks out for birds and wildlife, tackling the problems that threaten our environment. Nature is amazing – help us keep it that way.

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2 Bringing Reedbeds to Life: creating and managing reedbeds for biodiversity