Studio Dragon Content Takes Center Stage

Results Comment

Studio Dragon Content takes center stage

(253450 KQ) HJ Kim BUY and 6M TP of W115,000 maintained [email protected] - The target price of W115,000 for Studio Dragon is based on our residual income model, which we believe is an appropriate valuation method given its projected NP CAGR of 26% Lee Ga-yeon over the next five years and an increase in its annual drama production volume (from the [email protected] current 25 to 40 titles).

Rating BUY 3Q19 results confirm a strong earnings base maintain - For 3Q19, Studio Dragon reported revenue of W130.0bn (up 6% yoy; up 2% qoq) and OP 6M TP (W) 115,000 of W10.9bn (down 49% yoy; up 1% qoq), which are in line with our estimates. - OP looks decent, in our view, considering the tough comparison (strong performance of maintain CP (W) Mr. Sunshine last year) and break-even performance of the much anticipated Arthdal (19.11.07) 78,300 Chronicles. It also remained above the W10bn mark for the third consecutive quarter, proving the company’s still-solid earnings base. Media - Programming and distribution each accounted for 46% of companywide revenue in 3Q19. The company saw programming revenue from non-captive accounts climb to a record W10.4bn and steady growth in distribution revenue from overseas customers, which offset Industry 4.0 safety rating ■ Neutral Green some shortfalls in domestic distributions and non-captive programming.

- Studio Dragon, a production arm of media titan CJ ENM, has a solid base of captive KOSDAQ 666.15 customers such as tvN and OCN and its content sales to Netflix and other global OTT Market cap (Wbn) 2,200 platforms are increasing at a steady pace. Market cap portion (%) 0.93 Paid-in capital (common; Wbn) 14 52w high/low (W) 114,100 / 54,000 Content is at the fore front 120d avg. trading volume (Wbn) 9.0 - Studio Dragon’s stock, which plunged on vague concerns about content rather than actual Foreign ownership (%) 2.92 earnings results, is returning to normal, driven by the race to launch OTT platforms both at Major CJ ENM+3: 74.33% home and abroad. shareholders - Arthdal Chronicles reached the break-even point prior to airing. Its average viewership,

(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M however, was in the 7% range, which is higher than tvN’s total average (5%) but still lower Abs. return 19.0 40.1 -13.8 -19.7 than that of previous tentpole dramas. But it’s important to keep in mind that viewer ratings Rel. return 12.0 18.7 -2.5 -17.7 don’t directly affect ad rates in the short term. - Studio Dragon’s two new dramas Catch the Ghost and Crash Landing of Love will air in ((W천원1K) ) Studio스튜디오드래곤Dragon (LHS) (좌) (%) 4Q19. 120 Relative to KOSDAQ to KOSDAQ(우) 20 - Studio Dragon produced three dramas for non-captive customers (Netflix Original Love 10 103 Alarm, MBC’s Spring Night, and SBS’ Doctor John) this year and will ramp up production to 0 six in 2020. At the same time, six of its dramas will air on Netflix that year. -10 86 - Netflix is continuing to pour money into producing original content for the Asian audience, -20 while we expect to see a host of new global OTT platforms such as Apple TV+, Disney+, -30 68 and HBO Max entering the market within a year. While these global players haven’t -40 mentioned anything about investing in Korean content, they are likely to invest in Korean 51 -50 content and could even partner with Studio Dragon in 2020. 18.10 19.01 19.04 19.07 19.10 - Studio Dragon is seeking to push into the US using its content library. Once it sets up a subsidiary there in 1H20, the company plans to begin airing remakes of its popular dramas in 2H20, which should help boost overseas revenue share and strengthen alliances with global OTT platforms. (Wbn, %)

3Q19 4Q19 3Q18 2Q19 Previous Daishin Result YoY QoQ Consensus YoY QoQ estimate estimate Revenue 124 128 137 131 6.0 2.3 128 131 28.9 -0.1 3,305. OP 21 11 11 11 -49.2 1.1 12 15 37.6 2 NP 17 7 11 12 -33.6 56.9 9 14 729.3 25.7

2019(F) Growth 2017 2018 Previous Daishin Chg Consensus 2018 2019(F) estimate estimate Revenue 287 380 475 502 5.7 492 32.4 32.3 OP 33 40 49 48 -2.1 47 21.0 19.6 NP 24 36 43 43 -1.2 39 50.3 18.7 Source: Studio Dragon, FnGuide, Daishin Securities Research Center

This report has been prepared by Daishin Securities Co., Ltd. SEE APPENDIX FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION. Company Analysis www.daishin.com 2019.11.08 Studio Dragon (253450 KQ)

Operating results and major financial data (Wbn, W, x, %) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Revenue 287 380 502 547 619 OP 33 40 48 74 94 Pretax profit 30 46 57 87 108 NP 24 36 43 64 80 NP (controlling int.) 24 36 43 64 80 EPS 1,050 1,278 1,515 2,286 2,842 PER 61.9 72.3 51.7 34.2 27.6 BPS 16,223 14,312 15,813 17,584 19,676 PBR 4.0 6.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 ROE 9.5 9.3 10.1 13.7 15.3 Note: EPS, BPS, and ROE are based only on the controlling interest. Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center

Yearly earnings forecast revision (Wbn, W, %, %p) Previous Revised Chg

2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F Revenue 475 519 502 547 5.7 5.4 SG&A expense 14 12 16 12 11.2 0.0 OP 49 74 48 74 -2.1 -0.7 OP margin 10.3 14.3 9.5 13.5 -0.8 -0.8 Non-operating profit 10 13 9 13 -11.0 0.0 Pretax profit 59 87 57 87 -3.6 -0.6 NP (controlling int.) 43 65 43 64 -1.2 -0.6 NP margin 9.1 12.5 8.5 11.8 -0.6 -0.7 EPS (controlling int.) 1,534 2,300 1,515 2,286 -1.2 -0.6 Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center

Fig 1. Stock rebound following the release of less weak than expected earnings results

((W천원1K)) StudioSD 주가Dragon SD OP Consen(RHS) (W”00(억원mn)) 120 250 Stock price plunged 40% 5/9 1Q19 실적발표 후 100 during three months following3개월간 May40% 5 release 하락 of 1Q19 results 200

80 150 60

120 100 40 108

2Q19 OP reached W10.8bn 8/8 2Q19 OP 108억원 달성 50 20 1Q19 실적 발표 후 형성된 2Q19 실적 전망 및 발표된 실적 대비 <아스달>에 대한 우려가 주가에 지나치게 반영 0 0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 19.10

Source: FnGuide, Daishin Securities Research Center

DAISHIN SECURITIES

Fig 2. Revenue rising on increased drama production Fig 3. OP to rise 28% annually through 2023

(W(천억원100bn) ) Rev. #제작 of titles편수 produced(RHS) (편) (W(천억원100bn)) Rev. OPM(RHS) (%) (RHS) 8.0 25 8.0 2023년까지(W100bn) 45 50 2023(W년까지100bn) Rev. CAGR 12% 42 7.0 OP. CAGR 28% 20.4 7.0 40 45 18.5 20 35 40 6.0 6.0 31 35 15.2 5.0 13.5 5.0 26 30 15 11.5 4.0 22 25 4.0 10.5 19 9.5 6.6 6.8 10 3.0 6.2 20 3.0 5.5 5.0 15 2.0 3.8 2.0 2.9 10 5 2.1 1.0 5 1.0 2.1 2.9 3.8 5.0 5.5 6.2 6.6 6.8 0.0 0 0.0 0 16 17 18 19E 20E 21E 22E 23E 16 17 18 19E 20E 21E 22E 23E

Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center estimates Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center estimates

Fig 4. # of non-captive programming soars Fig 5. Growing on captive customers (tvN, OCN)

Programming편성 매출 revenue (W(천억원100bn) ) RevenueCJ ENMfrom향 CJ매출ENM Share비중((RHS)RHS) (%) (W”억원00mn)) Non-Captive(RHS)(W”(00억원mn)) 700 27.6 30 3.0 45.7 46.9 46.1 50 40.9 40.7 45 40.1 39.2 600 23.6 2.5 25 40 500 18.9 35 2.0 17.1 20 28.3 15.6 30 400 15 1.5 25 300 608 9.2 544 581 20 489 1.0 441 10 15 200 418 390 407 6.3 341 10 263 241 2.9 0.5 100 1.1 5 5 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 0 0 0.0 0 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 16 17 18 19E 20E 21E 22E 23E

Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center estimates Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center estimates

Fig 6. Quarterly revenue on the rise Fig 7. Both programming and distribution revenue rise

(천억원) (%) 편성 매출 판매 매출(RHS) (W100bn) Revenue매출 OPM(RHS) (W”억원00mn)) Programming re Distribution rev. (W”(00억원mn)) 18.5 1.4 20 700 venue (LHS) 634 700 17.4 603 600 18 1.2 600 562 600 14.3 16 13.3 1.0 14 500 500 12 365 378 0.8 9.9 9.9 400 400 321 8.6 8.4 8.3 10 288 263 0.6 300 257 608 300 8 233 544 581 489 4.8 441 0.4 6 200 418 390 407 200 341 4 263 241 0.2 100 100 0.4 2 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.0 0 0 0 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center

Studio Dragon (253450 KQ)

1. Company profile

Overview Revenue breakdown by business (3Q19) - Spun off from CJ E&M in May 2016

- Listed on the KOSDAQ in Nov 2017 8%

- Revenue W379.6bn, OP W39.9bn, NP W35.8bn (2018) Programming드라마 편성 - Revenue mix: programming 46%, distribution 46%, others 8% (3Q19) Distribution판매 Share price catalysts 46% Others기타 - Earnings are rising steadily on increased drama supply to CJ ENM’s 46% channels tvN and OCN as well as Netflix.

- But the stock will likely rebound if earnings come in favorable owing to rising viewer ratings of major dramas.

Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center

2. Earnings drivers

Programming revenue vs. revenue share of captive Distribution revenue (3Q19) customers (3Q19)

(W”억원00mn)) Programming편성 매출 Captive(RHS) (W”00mn)(억원) (W”00mn)억원) Distribution드라마 판매 Library라이브러리(RHS) (RHS) (편) 700 120 700 148 160 98.9 136 97.199.7 99.5 93.7 126 140 600 90.8 100 600 84.4 82.9 81.1 108 120 500 76.4 106 102 104 72.4 500 101 80 93 97 89 100 400 400 60 80 300 608 300 634 603 600 544 581 562 489 60 441 40 200 418 390 407 200 341 365 378 40 321 288 263 241 20 263 233 257 100 100 20

0 0 0 0 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19

Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center

Distribution: domestic vs. overseas (3Q19)

((W”00mn)억원) Domestic국내 판매 해외Overseas판매 (RHS)(W”00mn)(억원) 200 distribution 462distribution (RHS) 500 426 439 180 422 450 160 400 140 350

120 252 300 226 227 100 250 172 181 80 161 154 165 161 200 139 131 136 60 123 125 150 102 102 104 94 40 100 20 50 0 0 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19

Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center

DAISHIN SECURITIES

Per share intrinsic value Residual Income Model (Wbn, W, %) 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Ⅰ NP (contr. int.)(Note 2) 43 64 80 100 113 127 142 159 178 199

Ⅱ Shareholders’ equity (contr. int.)(Note 2) 444 494 553 629 713 803 901 1,010 1,125 1,253

Estimated ROE 10.1 13.7 15.3 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.8 15.9

Ⅲ Required rate of return (Note 3) 4.6

Risk free rate of return (Note 4) 1.8

Market risk premium (Note 5) 4.0

Beta 0.70

Ⅳ Spread (estimated ROE – required rate of return) 5.5 9.1 10.7 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.3

Ⅴ Required income 19 20 23 25 29 33 37 41 47 52

Ⅵ Residual income ( l -Ⅴ) 24 44 57 75 84 94 105 118 132 148

Present value factor 0.99 0.95 0.91 0.87 0.83 0.80 0.76 0.72 0.70 0.66

PV of residual income 24 42 52 65 70 75 80 86 92 98

Ⅶ Sum of residual income 683

Ⅷ PV of residual income following forecasting period 2,134

Terminal growth (g)(Note 6) 0.0%

Ⅸ Beginning shareholders’ equity 401

Ⅹ Fair market cap (Ⅶ+Ⅷ+Ⅸ) 3,218

Total number of shares (thousands) 28,095

Ⅹl Per share value (W) 114,530

Current share price (W) 78.300

Potential (%) 46.3% Note 1: Under the residual income model (RIM), we add the current shareholders’ equity to the residual income based on the earnings forecast for the next ten years before adding the result to the residual income after the forecasting period to derive the value of shareholders’ stakes. The RIM is considered less subjective than similar valuation models such as DDM, DCF, and EVA. Note 2: The RIM reflects consolidated subsidiaries’ earnings not in their entirety but only for the stake controlled by the company. Note 3: The required rate of return (i.e., cost of equity) is the rate of return expected by the shareholders who take risks. It is derived by the capital asset price model: Cost of equity = Risk-free interest rate + Beta * Market risk premium. Note 4: The yield on five-year government bonds was used as the proxy for the risk-free interest rate. Note 5: Market risk premium refers to the gap between the expected return on the market portfolio and the risk-free interest rate. It has been lowered from 6-8% to 3-5% in reflection of the current low-growth environment. Note 6: The terminal growth was assumed to be zero.

Studio Dragon (253450 KQ)

Financial statements

Income statement (Wbn) Balance sheet (Wbn)

2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Revenue 287 380 502 547 619 Current assets 290 247 290 341 392 Cost of goods sold 240 324 439 461 511 Cash & cash equiv. 51 153 173 217 254 Gross profit 47 56 64 86 108 Trade & other receive. 55 69 91 99 112 SG&A expenses 14 16 16 12 14 Inventories 1 1 1 1 1

OP 33 40 48 74 94 Other current assets 182 25 25 25 25 OP margin 11.5 10.5 9.5 13.5 15.2 Long-term assets 170 265 271 272 285 EBITDA 74 115 150 177 206 Tangible assets 1 1 1 1 1 Non-OP -3 6 9 13 14 Investments in affiliates 0 0 0 0 0 Income from affiliates 0 0 0 0 0 Other long-term assets 169 264 270 271 284 Financial revenue 1 7 15 13 14 Total assets 459 512 561 614 676 FX related gains 0 0 0 0 0 Current liabilities 91 108 115 117 121 Financial expense -3 -1 -6 -1 -1 Payables & other liab. 34 60 66 69 72 FX related losses 1 0 0 0 0 Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 Others 0 0 0 1 1 Current portion of LT debts 10 0 0 0 0 Income before taxes 30 46 57 87 108 Other current liabilities 47 48 48 48 48 Income tax expense -6 -10 -14 -23 -28 Long-term liabilities 0 3 3 3 3 Income from cont. op. 24 36 43 64 80 Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 Income from discont. op. 0 0 0 0 0 Convertible securities 0 0 0 0 0 NP 24 36 43 64 80 Other long-term liab. 0 3 3 3 3 NP margin 8.3 9.4 8.5 11.8 12.9 Total liabilities 91 111 117 120 123 NP for non-contr. interest 0 0 0 0 0 Controlling interest 368 401 444 494 553 NP for contr. interest 24 36 43 64 80 Capital stock 14 14 14 14 14 Valuation of AFS fin. assets 0 0 0 0 0 Capital surplus 320 320 320 320 320 Other compreh. income 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 Retained earnings 32 68 110 160 219 Comprehensive income 24 35 41 63 79 Other capital changes 3 0 0 0 0 Comp. income for non-contr. Int. 0 0 0 0 0 Non-controlling interest 0 0 0 0 0 Comp. income for contr. int. 24 35 41 63 79 Total shareholder’s equity 368 401 444 494 553 Net borrowings -183 -158 -178 -221 -258

10 11 12 13 14 Valuation metrics (W, x, %) Cash flow statement (Wbn)

2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F EPS 1,050 1,278 1,515 2,286 2,842 Operating cash flows -7 -29 -6 26 47 PER 61.9 72.3 51.7 34.2 27.6 NP 0 0 43 64 80 BPS 16,223 14,312 15,813 17,584 19,676 Non-cash items 46 74 105 116 130 PBR 4.0 6.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 Depreciation 41 75 102 103 112 EBITDAPS 3,271 4,108 5,351 6,298 7,342 FX gains 1 -1 0 0 0 EV/EBITDA 22.1 21.1 13.5 11.2 9.4 Equity method gain 0 0 0 0 0 SPS 12,628 13,539 17,899 19,455 22,046 Others 4 0 2 13 18 PSR 5.1 6.8 4.4 4.0 3.6 Chg in assets & liab. -73 -139 -154 -144 -148 CFPS 3,068 3,930 5,240 6,408 7,453 Other cash flows 20 36 1 -10 -15 DPS 0 0 500 750 850 Investing cash flow -141 141 -106 -101 -121 Investment assets -141 138 0 0 0 Financial ratios (W, x, %) Tangible assets 0 0 0 0 0

2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Others 0 3 -105 -101 -121

Growth potential Financing cash flows 188 -10 0 -14 -21 Sales growth 85.7 32.4 32.3 8.8 13.3 Short-term borrowings -8 0 0 0 0 OP growth 98.3 21.0 19.6 54.5 28.0 Bonds payable 10 0 0 0 0 NP growth 192.9 50.3 18.7 51.0 24.3 Long-term borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 Profitability Rights offering 208 0 0 0 0 ROIC 17.0 16.0 15.6 22.3 26.9 Cash dividends 0 0 0 -14 -21 ROA 9.4 8.2 8.9 12.5 14.6 Others -22 -10 0 0 0 ROE 9.5 9.3 10.1 13.7 15.3 Net chg in cash 40 102 20 43 37

Stability Beginning cash balance 12 51 153 173 217 Debt ratio 24.7 27.7 26.5 24.2 22.3 Ending cash balance 51 153 173 217 254 Net borrowings ratio -49.5 -39.3 -40.1 -44.8 -46.7 NOPLAT 26 31 36 55 70 Interest coverage ratio 19.0 343.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FCF 67 106 30 53 58 Source: Studio Dragon, Daishin Securities Research Center

Appendix

[Daishin House View: Industry 4.0 safety rating]

• Daishin Securities assigns safety ratings to individual sectors and companies based on analyses and discussions by our analysts. • Depending on whether Industry 4.0 will have a positive, neutral, or negative impact, each industry and company is assigned one of three safety ratings:

Dark Gray (negative) Neutral Green (neutral) Sky Blue (positive)

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Studio Dragon (253450 KQ)

[Investment rating & Target price history]

Studio Dragon (253450 KQ) Investment rating breakdown and framework (Nov 5, 2019)

(W)원) Adj. Price Adj. Target Price BUY MARKETPERFORM UNDERPERFORM 140,000 120,000 Ratio 87.6% 11.4% 0.0% 100,000 Sector ratings breakdown 80,000 - Overweight: industry indicators are expected to 60,000 40,000 outperform the market over the next six months. 20,000 - Neutral: industry indicators are expected to be in line 0 with the market over the next six months. 17.11 18.03 18.07 18.11 19.03 19.07 - Underweight: industry indicators are expected to Date 19.11.08 19.11.07 19.05.07 18.11.07 18.08.08 18.04.29 underperform the market over the next six months. Rating BUY 6M passed. 6M passed. BUY MKTPERF. MKTPERF.

Target price 115,000 115,000 115,000 115,000 95,000 81,000 Diff. (avr. %) (40.20) (17.43) 10.95 26.80

Diff. (max./min., %) (100.00) (21.39) (0.78) 22.42 (1.73) Company ratings breakdown Date 18.01.28 17.11.25 - Buy: the stock is expected to outperform the market by Rating MKTPERF. BUY Target price 74,000 46,000 at least 10%p over the next six months. Diff. (avr. %) 19.40 44.64 - Marketperform: the stock is expected to either Diff. (max./min., %) (3.51) 25.65 Date outperform or underperform the market by less than Rating 10%p over the next six months. Target price - Underperform: the stock is expected to underperform Diff. (avr. %) Diff. (max./min., %) the market by at least 10%p over the next six months. Date Rating Target price Diff. (avr. %) Diff. (max./min., %)