● A SPECIAL BRIEFING US ELECTION 2008 The battle of hope and experience

THE ECONOMY ● REGULATION AND TRADE ● FOREIGN POLICY ● IRAQ ● HEALTH CARE IMMIGRATION ● ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT ● EDUCATION ● CRIME ● VALUES

UUSELECTIONOK.inddSELECTIONOK.indd 1 224/9/084/9/08 16:24:1616:24:16 The battle of hope and experience Will America choose the old hero who favours tax cuts for business and the rich and backed George Bush’s wars? Or the young man who promises health care for all, a swift exit from Iraq and more money for the average worker? As America’s †nancial system buckles, this ought to be an unlosable election for the Democrats. But it isn’t

T HAS been a time of miracles and won• He promises much. He would withdraw ders. Hillary Clinton, the Œinevitable American troops from Iraq as fast as is practicable. Democratic nominee, was beaten by a He would increase the size of the army and send man who was barely out of law school more troops to Afghanistan. He would close the when she was trying to reform the na• prison at Guantánamo Bay. Domestically, he I tion’s health•care system; and that man, would o er Americans near•universal health Barack Obama, has become the darling care. He would raise taxes on the rich and on busi• of the world. John McCain, a senator whose cam• nesses, trim them for the great bulk of the middle paign was given up for dead last year, improbably class and o er numerous handouts. He would set surged past all his rivals to seize the Republican up a cap•and•trade system for curbing carbon nomination. Voters in November will pick either emissions and lavish cash on alternative energy. C ONTENTS a black president or a female vice•president, To many of his fans, Mr Obama’s allure owes 3 The economy breaking new ground either way. And most sur• even more to his persona than to his policies. He prising of all, at a time when the Democrats surely is an athletic 47. Half•black, half•white and raised 5 Regulation and cannot lose, they still just might. by a single mother, his rise from modest roots em• trade Only once in the past half•century has a party bodies the American dream. Not only does he been awarded three consecutive terms in the preach racial reconciliation; his election would 7 Iraq and White House. That was in 1988, after Ronald Rea• help achieve it. And a generation of black chil• Afghanistan gan’s two terms, when the economy was strong dren would grow up with an ideal role model: a and the president was still popular. Neither re• black president with a loving, intact family. 8 Foreign policy motely holds true now. The economy may not Mr Obama’s election would also help mend quite be in recession, but it certainly feels that America’s shredded relations with the rest of the 10 Health care way. House prices are tumbling, petrol and groc• world, though probably less than his foreign fans ery prices are painfully high and wages have stag• imagine. Unlike George Bush, he soothingly es• 12 Immigration nated for years. The September meltdown of pouses international co•operation. His nuanced 14 Energy and the much of Wall Street has put an unexpected focus manner reassures Europeans. His surname is Afri• on the candidates’ grasp of the complex world of can, his middle name is Arabic, he has Muslim environment high †nance. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan forebears, he grew up partly in Asia and his skin 16 Education drag on. By rights, Mr McCain should be shu‰ing colour is close to the global average. A recent poll towards certain defeat. Yet the polls are still very of 22 countries by the BBC found that people in all 17 Crime close. The main reason is that the Democrats have 22 of them preferred Mr Obama to Mr McCain. picked as their standard•bearer Mr Obama, a man But only Americans can vote in American 18 Values of great gifts but signi†cant weaknesses. elections, and many have doubts about Mr Mr Obama writes brilliant speeches and deliv• Obama. He has the thinnest résumé of any nomi• 20 Conclusion ers them beautifully. He attracts huge crowds, stirs nee in living memory. Eight years ago, when he their passions and moves them to tears. Yet he is ran for a seat in the House of Representatives, his no crude demagogue. He approaches policy ques• opponent, a former Black Panther, dismissed him tions with an admirable mix of intellect and prag• by asking: ŒJust what’s he done? Mr Obama was matism. His advisers marvel at his capacity to then a lowly state senator, and had also worked as weigh complex arguments and pick solutions a lawyer and a community organiser. Voters that seem both sensible and politically feasible. deemed this to be insuˆcient preparation for1

US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 1 2 Congress. Mr Obama lost by 31percentage points. state. Voters want someone who has the extraor• In 2004 he was elected to the United States dinary talents necessary to do the job, yet who Senate. But many Americans hesitate to hire as also seems ordinary and likeable. Cultural cues the country’s leader someone with no executive matter hugely. So does evidence of sound judg• experience besides running the Harvard Law Re• ment and strength of character. view and a series of election campaigns. Others Mr Obama wins top marks for raw talent. He worry that he is not as nice or principled as he can also claim sound judgment: though no paci• seems. He won that state Senate seat by having all †st, he opposed the Iraq war from the start. Mr his rivals thrown o the ballot. He cosied up to McCain retorts that he backed the Œsurge before Chicago’s machine politicians. His pastor for two it was popular, when Mr Obama tried to block it. decades preaches ŒGod damn America. For all The two men’s life stories appeal to di erent Mr Obama’s rhetoric about reaching across the groups. Mr McCain is a war hero who endured partisan divide, he has never stood up to his party years of torture in Vietnam. He has often de†ed to accomplish anything substantial. For all his talk his own party in pursuit of centrist policies, such about uniting his country, he has become an un• as banning torture, welcoming immigrants and expectedly divisive †gure. tackling climate change. Mr Obama is more of an enigma. His voting record is one of the most liber• McCain, again al in the Senate, but in his books, he tends to pre• The alternative is Mr McCain. Though quick•wit• sent two sides of each policy argument without ted on the stump, Mr McCain seems less intelli• reaching many †rm conclusions. During the cam• gent and less eloquent than Mr Obama. His age is paign he has tacked to the centre. Even profession• against him: he would be the oldest †rst•term al observers are now thoroughly unsure what he president ever inaugurated, and he has had recur• stands for. rent bouts of cancer. He has a volcanic temper Mr Obama has addressed some of his weak• that he struggles to control. Many people fear that nesses by picking Joe Biden as his running•mate. he is a warmonger at worst, at best a prickly indi• Mr Biden has been a senator for 36 years and vidual with neoconservative tendencies who knows a lot about foreign policy. His working• will do little to mend fences with the world. His class roots appeal to some who †nd Mr Obama grasp of the details of economics and †nance is detached from their problems. But he has had less shaky, to say the least. e ect on the race than Mr McCain’s risky‹and, But Mr McCain is also a brave politician, who some say, deeply cynical‹choice of Sarah Palin, has often tried to do the diˆcult not the expedient the governor of Alaska. thing. He would stay the course in Iraq, arguing Unlike Mr McCain, that a hasty withdrawal would spark chaos. He Mrs Palin knows little There is still a would stand up to Russia and Iran. Like his rival, about national or inter• he would close Guantánamo. national politics. But as month to go and the On the economic front, whereas Mr Obama a working mother of ‡irts with protectionism, Mr McCain is a staunch †ve who grew up shoot• economy is, to put free•trader. He endorses low taxes, though the ing moose for the freez• rich get most of the breaks. In general he favours er, she appeals to small• it mildly, volatile light regulation, but he now agrees with Mr town voters who feel Obama that Wall Street needs †rmer oversight. condescended to by Democrats. And as a born• Also like Mr Obama, he proposes a cap•and•trade again Christian and passionate pro•lifer, she system for greenhouse gases, but he would give thrills social conservatives who have never away the permits, not auction them. His health• warmed to Mr McCain. But she appals a lot of in• care plans emphasise using competition to curb dependent voters, who dislike her conservative costs rather than expanding coverage. views and worry about her evident inexperience, Mr McCain’s domestic platform may be be• should she ever have to step into the 72•year•old side the point, however, since Congress will be Mr McCain’s shoes. The ŒPalin e ect was huge at Democratic and unlikely to pass his proposals †rst, but it quickly started to fade. without rewriting them. On the other hand, for Meanwhile, no one knows how race will a ect many moderate voters, the best argument for Mr the election. Many people, black and white, will McCain is that a Republican president and a back Mr Obama because he is black. Many will Democratic Congress would check and balance oppose him for the same reason, though few will each other. In the past, divided government has admit as much. There is still a month to go, the led to greater †scal prudence, since presidents are presidential and vice•presidential debates still more likely to veto the other party’s wasteful need to sink in, and the economy is, to put it mild• spending. Getting both parties to share the pain is ly, volatile. After a campaign that has already also the only realistic way to tackle tough long• lasted more than two years, it seems impossible term problems, like the looming bankruptcy of to predict who will win. But no one can complain Social Security (public pensions) and Medicare that Americans are not getting a clear choice. 7 (public health care for the elderly). If voters made up their minds according to Updated coverage, polls, background each party’s stated policies, Mr Obama would brie†ngs and more on the election: probably be a shoo•in. But they do not. The presi• www.economist.com/uselection2008 dent is both chief executive and symbolic head of

2 US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 T HE ECONOMY A choice of remedies

Will voters opt for redistribution or another dose of supply•side medicine?

ITH America in or near re• views. Mr McCain opposed George 2001 and 2003 tax cuts all expire at the cession, the economy has Bush’s tax cuts in 2001 because the end of 2010. Of course, neither will de• muscled its way to the top of bene†ts went mostly to the wealthy; he liver precisely what he promises thanks most people’s priorities. Yet opposed them in 2003 because they de• to the constraints of de†cits, congres• voters this autumn will not pleted the Treasury while the country sional horse•trading and the ‡ow of un• Wjust be deciding which man was at war, though he has since come expected events. they trust to manage the econ• round to them. He has attacked the Œex• omy. They will also vote more broadly travagant salaries and severance deals The nitty•gritty on what role they want the govern• of CEOs. He famously allowed that Mr Obama’s tax plan revolves around ment to play in their lives. Œeconomics is not something I’ve un• keeping Mr Bush’s tax cuts for house• For decades both Democrats and Re• derstood as well as I should, and this holds earning less than $250,000 a year publicans have broadly espoused less year has brought evidence that he and reversing them only for those who regulation, freer markets and free trade, wasn’t joking. He backed a petrol•tax earn more. These rich families would though their conviction has waxed and holiday despite the misgivings of econ• see their tax rates return from 33% and waned with the economic weather. omists, including some who advise 35% to the Clinton•era 36% and 39.6%. That consensus is now under threat. him. His pledge to add huge new tax Mr Obama would retain Mr Bush’s 15% Average wages have stagnated since cuts to Mr Bush’s while simultaneously tax rate on dividends and capital gains 2001 because of high energy prices, ris• balancing the budget is not credible. for those earning less than $250,000‹ ing health•care costs and widening in• Mr Obama calls himself a Œpro• but raise it to 20% for those with more. equality. Many blame free trade or im• growth, free•market guy, despite op• He has also proposed raising the So• migration. The credit crisis has further posing most of Mr Bush’s trade deals, cial Security payroll tax on those earn• undermined the consensus by expos• voting in favour of farm subsidies and ing more than $250,000 by two to four ing serious ‡aws in America’s †nancial frequently veering into populist rheto• percentage points, although only as system and precipitating dramatic in• ric. ŒIn the long run, we cannot have a part of a broader overhaul of the pro• tervention by the government in the thriving Wall Street and a struggling gramme and not until 2019. Beyond markets (see next article). Main Street, he argued in August. Still, that, he would create or expand a vari• John McCain and Barack Obama of• in contrast to Mr McCain, Mr Obama ety of tax credits for low• and middle• fer voters starkly di erent economic has moved closer to the centre during income workers. He would also ex• philosophies. Mr McCain thinks the the campaign. He now proposes keep• empt old people earning less than economy will grow faster with less reg• ing some of Mr Bush’s reduction in divi• $50,000 a year from paying any in• ulation, more free trade and lower taxes dend and capital•gains taxes, a conces• come tax. The Tax Policy Centre, a non• on the wealthy and on capital. Mr sion to the economic consensus that partisan research group, reckons that Obama thinks the bene†ts of growth such taxes discourage investment. under his plan some 80% of American will be more widely shared if there is The †rst challenge either man will households would pay less tax than more government oversight, a less en• face is to restart the economy. Mr they do now while 10% would pay thusiastic embrace of free trade and a Obama has been more activist, calling more. His opponents imply his plans tax system that reverses some of the for $50 billion to be spent on public in• would increase taxes on middle•class widening trend in inequality. frastructure and aid to †scally strapped workers, but this is plainly not true. Neither man is monolithic in these states and for tax rebates of $1,000 per For his part, Mr McCain would keep family, †nanced by a †ve•year tax on in place all Mr Bush’s tax cuts on wages, oil•company pro†ts. Mr McCain was capital gains and dividends, while boost• Who would do a better job on... The economy? sceptical at †rst about the wisdom of ing the exemption for dependants from % additional stimulus, but became more $3,500 to $7,000. He would also dramati• 0 10 20 30 40 50 open to the idea as the crisis worsened. cally up the ante by chopping the top Barack Obama The two men’s long•term ambitions corporate tax rate from 35% to 25% John McCain for the economy are best illustrated by (though eliminating some deductions). Proportion placing issue among top 3 concerns = 84% Source for all polling data charts: YouGov/Polimetrix their plans to revamp the tax system: For †ve years, he would let companies plans that are urgent because Mr Bush’s immediately write o against pro†ts the1

US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 3 2 full cost of equipment meant to last Clinton’s 1993 tax increases stopped the plans, relative to the same projections, three to †ve years. wealthy from working harder. Mr would reduce the debt by $748 billion. Mr Bush’s tax cuts widened the gap Bush’s own Treasury estimated that all Mr McCain and Mr Obama both in after•tax income between the rich his tax cuts would boost GDP a tiny 0.7% plan to reduce the de†cit through and the poor at a time when the gap after many years, and then only if they spending cuts, but are short on details. was widening anyway because of eco• were paid for by spending cuts, which Mr McCain has some credibility on this nomic forces. Mr Obama would reverse they weren’t. subject, since he voted against farm and some of that widening; Mr McCain Moreover, the bene†cial impacts of ethanol subsidies (Mr Obama voted for would add to it. The Tax Policy Centre Mr McCain’s tax cuts on investment both), castigated bloated Pentagon pro• estimates that, under Mr Obama’s plan, could be entirely cancelled out by the curement and refused to ask for ear• the after•tax income of the bottom 20% borrowing that would be needed to †• marks (funds set aside for a legislator’s nance a bigger de†cit. The Tax favourite projects). Still, this may not Policy Centre estimates that count for much. Earmarks are symboli• The two candidates his tax plans would boost the cally potent but †scally inconsequen• national debt by $758 billion tial, since they mostly parcel out spend• largely sidestep by 2018, assuming that Mr ing rather than alter its level. A better Bush’s tax cuts remain in reason to expect spending discipline some of the most place and the Alternative from Mr McCain is that he will have Minimum Tax‹a parallel tax fewer qualms than Mr Obama about vexing problems system aimed at the vetoing bills sent to him by Congress, wealthy‹doesn’t ensnare a which seems certain to be more strong• of people would be 5.4% higher while growing share of the middle class. Such ly Democratic than it is now. that of the top 1% of people would be 8% borrowing pushes up interest rates and For all the detail in their economic lower. Under Mr McCain’s plan, the thereby crowds out more productive plans, Mr Obama and Mr McCain large• bottom 20% would see their after•tax in• private investment. ly sidestep some of the most vexing eco• comes rise just 0.2% whereas the top 1% Mr McCain has promised to balance nomic problems. As the ratio of retirees would see theirs rise 2.2%. (See chart, the budget in his †rst term (ie, by 2013) to workers grows and the cost of health but note that Mr McCain’s team dis• but o ers no credible way of doing this, care rises, Medicare and Social Security putes these †gures.) especially since the de†cit is already will eventually su ocate the budget. projected to top $400 billion, or about Neither man has explained how they Over the long haul 3% of GDP, next year. Mr Obama’s tax will avoid that catastrophe. Mr McCain Taken at face value, Mr McCain’s tax wants workers to have personal invest• plan would seem better designed to ment accounts as part of Social Security boost long•term economic growth. To the rich shall be given but hasn’t explained how to make the Lower taxes on capital gains, dividends Changes in after-tax income overall programme solvent. He does, at and corporate pro†ts and immediate owing to tax policy* under: least, o er some interesting ideas on expensing of equipment all reduce the Obama plan McCain plan cutting health•care costs. Both candi• cost of capital, encouraging †rms to in• dates agree that a solution needs to be vest more. That would raise workers’ 8 6 4 2– 0+ 2 4 6 bipartisan. productivity and, eventually, wages. By Campaigns are not the place to ex• contrast, Mr Obama’s tax increases on Top 1% pect details on the pain a candidate the wealthy might discourage them plans to in‡ict. Nor can either predict from earning more. His widespread use the surprises that will rearrange their of tax credits might also give workers Lowest priorities. But America faces hard less incentive to earn more, since that 20% choices on spending and taxes. Mr would cost them some of their credit. *Versus baseline where Bush cuts are extended Obama’s and Mr McCain’s platforms But such e ects may not count for and incidence of Alternative o er some guidance, at least, as to how Source: Tax Policy Centre Minimum Tax is limited much. There is no evidence that Bill they will approach them. 7

4 US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 R EGULATION AND TRADE Changing the rules

The candidates o er divergent responses to the credit crunch and di er sharply over free trade

T THE best of times, economic reg• ers. But a lot of damage can be done in trust to prevent weak institutions from ulation does not lend itself to the meantime, as the withdrawal of becoming insolvent. He then attacked close examination in election credit leads to more economic weak• the administration’s plan. campaigns. Regulation, like eco• ness and so to even lower asset prices, Mr Obama has been more neutral nomics itself, is about trade•o s which may eventually fall below even on the bail•outs. He says that he wants A and judgment, whereas candi• bargain levels. any assistance for Wall Street †rms to dates need to put things in The Great Depression in the 1930s be paired with Œequally swift and seri• black and white. and the American, Scandinavian and ous help for the struggling families of That is even more so in this election, Japanese banking crises of the 1990s Main Street, and that any rescue plan when Barack Obama and John McCain eventually required the government to for banks must be temporary. are being forced to respond to events take over many failing institutions to re• Their di erences were already ap• that trained economists and bankers move bad debts from the system. So parent earlier this year, when Mr barely understand: a housing crash how much more could and should the Obama strongly backed a Democratic linked to mind•numbing †nancial in• federal government be doing? proposal to commit up to $300 billion struments, a brush †re of insolvency The Federal Reserve’s bail•out of to restructuring the mortgages of trou• among †nancial †rms, and a proposed Bear Stearns and the Bush administra• bled homeowners. Mr McCain pro• $700 billion bail•out on unclear terms. tion’s takeover of Fannie Mae, Freddie posed a smaller plan. ŒIt is not the duty The two men’s divergent philoso• Mac and the insurance group AIG were of government to bail out and reward phies on the role of regulation, govern• reluctant steps to stem the damage; the those who act irresponsibly, whether ment intervention and free trade o er line was drawn at saving Lehman they are big banks or small borrowers, important clues as to what they would Brothers. But the Bush administration’s he said in March. He eventually like the world to look like when the latest plan for stabilising the markets, a dropped his opposition to the larger dust settles. These, at heart, are di erent $700 billion buy•out of bad debt from plan, as the Bush administration did. aspects of one central question: just struggling banks, is a much bigger pro• These opposite starting positions how free should the free market be? position. While the two can• Since Mr McCain has always been on didates’ utterances on such the side of free markets and this crisis actions change with the ‡ow Will either allow further has often been blamed on the excesses of events, at heart their posi• of unbridled capitalism, Mr Obama has tions come down to how nationalisations if the had the chance to seize an advantage. much public money they The core of the crisis that has en• think should be committed banking system again gulfed the †nal weeks of the campaign to getting out of it, who is that falling prices of property and should get it, and who else comes under threat? other assets are turning the loans used should bene†t. to †nance them bad. These loan losses Mr Obama and Mr McCain have will matter if the crisis gets ever worse. erode the capital of †nancial institu• both said taxpayers’ money should not The sooner government intervention tions, making some fail and others be used to bail out the †rms and execu• occurs, the more e ective and, in the wary of lending. In theory, this cycle tives whose behaviour sparked the cri• end, cheaper it is likely to be. But inter• should end once property prices fall to sis. But Mr McCain, like most Republi• vention that proves unnecessary a level that entices a fresh wave of buy• cans, has generally been the more creates moral hazard and big liabilities. hostile. He praised the Treasury for not Mr Obama has addressed the crisis using public money to prevent Leh• earlier and in more detail than Mr Who would do a better job on... Regulation? man’s bankruptcy. But he has also McCain. He has laid the lion’s share of % chopped and changed. Initially he op• blame on unscrupulous lenders, mort• 0 10 20 30 40 50 posed a bail•out of AIG, then sup• gage•industry lobbyists and inade• Barack Obama ported it after the fact. On September quate oversight of credit•rating agen• John McCain 18th he called for the creation of a cies and †nancial institutions, and was Proportion placing issue among top 3 concerns = 6% Œmortgage and †nancial institutions writing letters to this e ect more than a1

US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 5 2 year ago. He has made it clear that, if Free trade is also deeply unpopular signed, the next president will play a elected, he would regulate Wall Street with Democrats in Congress, whose crucial role in responding to protection• more tightly, both with sti er capital re• numbers are expected to grow after the ist pressure from workers, companies quirements and closer oversight, espe• election. That means either president and their backers in Congress. Mr cially of †rms that borrow from the will face an uphill battle getting new McCain’s history, which includes oppo• Federal Reserve. He would streamline agreements through. sition to farm and ethanol subsidies, the country’s many regulatory agencies Mr McCain’s support for free trade is suggests he will oppose such pressure. and create Œa †nancial market oversight consistent and uncomplicated. Accord• Mr Obama, however, has seldom gone commission to anticipate future crises. ing to the Cato Institute, a conservative against his party on trade (or anything In the Senate, Mr McCain has never think•tank, he has voted in favour of else). At a recent conference, campaign played a leading role in †nancial issues, lower barriers on 88% of the 40 major advisers were asked whether their can• but his instincts have always been trade bills he has faced since 1993. Mr didates would veto a protectionist bill against more regulation. He told the Obama has done so on just 36% of the 11 from Congress. The McCain adviser, Ke• Wall Street Journal in March that al• he has faced since joining the Senate in vin Hassett, said yes. The Obama man, though the subprime crisis revealed a 2005. Mr McCain voted for the Central Gene Sperling, said this: ŒIf Senator role for oversight, ŒI am fundamentally America Free Trade Agreement and Obama believes that a bill was going to a deregulator. He has tended, more supports the pacts with South Korea be bad for jobs or for the economy, he than Mr Obama, to blame the crisis on and Colombia that the administration would veto it. an impersonal housing bubble, rather has signed but the Senate has not yet Both men would be likely to make than on ‡esh•and•blood †nanciers. rati†ed. Mr Obama opposed all three full use of the threat of congressional After Lehman’s failure on Septem• and has talked of renegotiating NAFTA, action as a lever to extract concessions ber 14th, however, Mr McCain turned America’s free•trade agreement with from trading partners‹as the Bush ad• more populist. He promised to end Mexico and Canada, to insert labour ministration did in persuading China to Œreckless conduct, corruption and un• and environmental standards. let its currency rise. Historically, presi• bridled greed on Wall Street (which he In his view, free trade can called a casino) and to Œenact and en• advance only once workers force reforms: but he declined to give no longer feel their rights and In Mr Obama’s view, free any speci†cs beyond †ring the head of wages are threatened by it: the SEC. For Mr McCain to reinvent ŒThere is nothing protection• trade can advance only himself as a fan of re•regulation is a ist about demanding that stretch, since he has spent the past de• trade spreads the bene†ts of once workers no longer cade pushing in the opposite direction. globalisation as broadly as He voted, for instance, in favour of the possible, he says. His advis• feel threatened by it 1999 bill that abolished Glass•Steagall ers claim Mr Obama is more and let retail and investment banks go likely to get trade agreements approved dential candidates become free traders into each others’ businesses. than Mr McCain because he is more once in oˆce, according to Douglas Ir• willing to link them to labour rights, en• win, a trade historian at Dartmouth The terms of trade vironment protection and worker re• College. Trade deals are a good way of While free trade is linked more philo• training. Mr Obama also wants to cementing alliances; and they make ex• sophically than directly to the deregula• strengthen unions, by for example al• cellent photo opportunities. tion that has helped to spawn the cur• lowing recognition of a union without In the end, the fate of free trade in rent †nancial crisis, its popularity has a vote if enough workers have signed the election hangs on this question: is it also su ered under the economic pres• union cards (Mr McCain opposes this). more likely to advance under an un• sures of recent years. In a recent Pew But a rejuvenated labour movement abashed advocate like Mr McCain, or a Centre poll, 48% of Americans said may be a stronger opponent to free sceptic like Mr Obama who fancies trade agreements are a bad thing, and trade, and other countries may reject himself better able to sell it to his fellow just 35% thought they were good‹the trade pacts with too many conditions. sceptics? To free•traders, trusting in Mr worst margin in at least a decade. Even if no new agreements are Obama requires a lot more faith. 7

6 US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN Which war? The candidates still have di erent views on the wars they will inherit, and on what to do with the armed forces

O WHICH war is more impor• The Iraqi prime minister, Nuri al•Ma• months at home between tours, but it tant: Iraq or Afghanistan? Iraq liki, has adopted a more nationalist does not have enough troops for that, has improved markedly, thanks posture. He wants a timetable that given its current commitments, let in part to last year’s surge of would see an American withdrawal by alone other possible crises. Nobody forces, while Afghanistan has the end of 2011 to be part of any agree• knows when American soldiers, all S worsened. Barack Obama says it ment on the status of American forces volunteers, will decide they have had is time to switch priorities: leave in Iraq after the current United Nations enough. Already there are worries Iraq and focus on Afghanistan. For John mandate expires in December. George about the quality of recruits, the reten• McCain, Œvictory in Iraq is essential. Bush, hitherto opposed to any dead• tion of junior oˆcers and stress. Iraq is smaller than Afghanistan in line, agrees there should be a Œgeneral For now, Mr McCain is willing to terms of both size and population (and time horizon for handing over securi• strain the army. He not only wants to it is much richer too). Yet Iraq receives ty responsibility to Iraq. stay on in Iraq, but wants to send more the lion’s share of American resources. The main questions of the debate troops to Afghanistan than Mr Obama America has spent about $525 billion are now: can Iraq be †xed, and what (three brigades to Mr Obama’s two). In †ghting in Iraq compared with $140 bil• happens if it takes a turn for the worse? the long term, though, his answer is lion in Afghanistan. With the end of the Mr McCain says that premature depar• greatly to expand the army. Mr Obama surge, there are still 15 American combat ture would invite failure, but says little supports plans for the army and ma• brigades in Iraq and less than three in about how to create a lasting govern• rine corps to grow from about 650,000 Afghanistan. Even counting the contri• ment. How will some 100,000 ŒSons of to 750,000; Mr McCain wants to add butions of NATO allies (of mixed mili• Iraq, Sunni militiamen hired by Amer• another 150,000 on top of that. tary worth), there is no doubt that Af• ica to †ght al•Qaeda, be absorbed by a Brigades do not come cheap, ghanistan is neglected. Shia•dominated government? though. America is already spending True, the insurgency has been more For Mr Obama only the certainty of more on defence in real terms than at intense in Iraq. More than 4,000 Ameri• an American withdrawal can force Ira• any time since the second world war can soldiers have died there, compared qis to compromise in their with fewer than 600 in Afghanistan. sectarian con‡ict. He wants But the equation is changing: since May to complete a Œresponsible What if there is civil war? more Americans have died in Afghani• withdrawal within 16 stan than in Iraq. months of taking oˆce, that That will no longer be If Iraq keeps getting better, the is, by mid•2010, leaving a re• choice for American voters may be less sidual force (of unspeci†ed America’s business, stark than the candidates say. The Bush size) to hunt al•Qaeda, pro• administration is slowly drawing tect the American embassy suggests Mr Obama down forces from Iraq to free up troops and train the Iraqi army. for Afghanistan. On September 9th, it What if the country descends into civil (though as a share of GDP, defence announced that a marine battalion des• war? That will no longer be America’s spending is almost at an historic low). tined for Iraq would be diverted to Af• business, he suggests; only a genocide The Pentagon faces a future shortfall of ghanistan in November, to be followed would prompt him to intervene again. about 10%, and nobody expects big by an army brigade in January. budget increases. Mr Obama talks of The political context is changing too. How many more boots? saving some money by scaling back Apart from the uncertainties of Iraq, spending on missile defence: conserva• there are questions about how much tives hate that thought. Even so, more Who would do a better job on... The wars? strain America’s forces can take. At the troops will probably have to mean few• % height of the surge in Iraq, soldiers were er new ships and planes. So the new 0 10 20 30 40 50 serving 15 months in war zones, with president will not just have to balance Barack Obama barely a year at home to recover. They the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but John McCain still serve 12 months on and 12 o . also today’s wars with the potential Proportion placing issue among top 3 concerns = 44% The army wants units to get 24 con‡icts of tomorrow. 7

US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 7 F OREIGN POLICY The best of enemies On a surprising range of foreign•policy issues, the rivals have morphed into each other. But di erences remain

IN Weber, a former Republican rines. The formative experience of his ministration has devoted a great deal of congressman for Minnesota, life was being shot down in Vietnam e ort to rebuilding some of the bridges once joked that Americans treat and spending †ve•and•half years in the that the †rst administration blew up foreign policy much as they treat Hanoi Hilton. Mr Obama opposed the with such nonchalance. And if you are dentistry‹something they would Iraq war from the start; Mr McCain in the business of improving America’s Vrather not think about unless they backed regime change before George brand, there is no better way to start have to. The †rst three presidential Bush became president. than by replacing the current president. elections after the end of the cold war, Yet despite all this, the two candi• That said, Mr Obama would clearly do in 1992, 1996 and 2000, saw little discus• dates see eye•to•eye on many big issues. a lot more to rebu America’s image sion of the world beyond America’s First, both genuinely understand (as than Mr McCain ever could. Some borders. The economy trumped inter• Dick Cheney, say, cannot) that the next 250,000 people turned out to see him in national a airs, the culture wars diplo• president must strive to improve Amer• Berlin in July; Mr McCain’s earlier visit macy. Even in 2004, when America was ica’s global image. The Bush years have to Europe went virtually unnoticed. really at war, values seemed to matter seen a catastrophic decline in pro• Both candidates also advocate spe• much more than abroad did. American sentiment around the world. ci†c policies that are designed to clear This year will be di erent. Foreign Only 31% of Germans have a favourable some of the blemishes on America’s policy will de†ne the election almost as view of the United States. Positive image. They both propose a policy of much as America’s troubled economy. views of America have dropped to 19% cap•and•trade to deal with global The next American president will in• in Pakistan and to a miserable 12% in warming, an issue on which American herit the most diˆcult international sit• Turkey. A big majority of Americans leadership has been sorely lacking for uation since Richard Nixon won power agree that their country’s reputation the past eight years. They both oppose in 1968: two nasty wars, in Iraq and Af• has been badly damaged in the Bush the use of torture‹Mr McCain with the ghanistan, in their †fth and seventh years. This not only makes it diˆcult for authority of a man who was himself year respectively; an Iran bent on ac• America to exercise moral leadership; it tortured by the Vietnamese. They both quiring nuclear weapons; instability in also hinders its exercise of hard power. want to close Guantánamo Bay. Pakistan; deeply strained relations with In the run up to the invasion of Iraq the The second area where the two men a prickly Russia; rivalry with booming Turkish government felt obliged to re• have more in common than one might China; a catastrophic drop in America’s fuse American troops permission to op• expect is the Œwar on terror. They have standing around the world; and a back• erate from its soil. plenty of disagreements, to be sure: Mr lash against globalisation. Obama does not go as far as Mr McCain The candidates, Barack Obama and Things can only get better in describing it as the de†ning struggle John McCain, are the products of di er• The good news is that either candidate of the time, and he sounds less preoccu• ent worlds. Mr Obama emerged from a is well•placed to improve America’s im• pied with state sponsors of terrorism. liberal chrysalis‹Ivy League universi• age. Mr Obama represents everything But whoever wins the presidency will ties and a spell as a community organ• that educated Europeans like about continue to place militant Islam at the iser in inner•city Chicago. He was six America, from his melting•pot back• centre of his foreign policy. during the Tet o ensive. Mr McCain is ground to his extraordinary oratorical Additionally, the two men also part of a military dynasty‹the son and skills. Mr McCain is an instinctive At• agree on other important issues that grandson of admirals and father of a lanticist who has been cultivating con• have provoked little discussion during son who has served in Iraq in the ma• nections with the global elite for de• the election campaign. One is the im• cades. He is a regular at the Munich portance of devoting more resources to security conference and an enthusiastic America’s armed services (see next arti• Who would do a better job on... National security? visitor to foreign newspapers. cle). The second is the case for reducing % Messrs Obama and McCain are also the world’s stockpile of nuclear weap• 0 10 20 30 40 50 lucky in their timing. The memory of ons. Mr McCain, the Œwarrior, de• Barack Obama the diplomatic war over Iraq is fading. scribes himself as a subscriber to Ron• John McCain Both Germany and France have elected ald Reagan’s dream of ridding the Proportion placing issue among top 3 concerns = 40% Atlanticist leaders. The second Bush ad• world of nuclear bombs. 1

8 US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 2 But for all that they agree on the that he thinks talk has its limits. that periodically takes a strongly anti• need for a fresh, more multilateral ap• Mr Obama shares his party’s enthu• America form. The Russians are partic• proach, there remain some hefty di er• siasm for multilateral institutions such ularly irked by the expansion of NATO ences between the two men, even if the as the United Nations. Mr McCain has to their borders. China’s growing eco• pressures of the campaign have nar• made a case for creating a Œleague of de• nomic might is discombobulating rowed them a little. Most simply put, mocracies as a counterweight to the American politics. Democrats in Con• Mr McCain remains signi†cantly more UN: a collection of like•minded coun• gress have frequently hammered China hawkish than Mr Obama. No voter tries that would not be hampered by over counterfeit goods, product safety should doubt that, as president, he the UN’s Faustian bargain with the Mu• and its exchange•rate policy. America is gabes of the world. periodically gripped by panics about This should not be over• poisoned pet food, tainted toothpaste The next president stated. Mr Obama has Œre• and lead•painted toys. †ned his pledge to hold un• Mr Obama’s approach to both pow• will inherit the most conditional talks with Iran. ers has been characterised by a belief in He has signalled his strong engagement and diplomacy (it is nota• diˆcult international support for Israel. He also ble that he focused on Mexico rather consults Dennis Ross, a vet• than China when he criticised free situation since 1968 eran of the Bush senior and trade during his primary campaign.) Mr Clinton administrations, as McCain has been much more schizo• would be more inclined to favour a ro• his key adviser on the Middle East: a phrenic. He clearly shares his genera• bust approach, whether that be the use man who cannot be accused of having tion’s deep suspicion of both countries. of military means, or the use of tougher any illusions about the magic power of He has suggested expelling Russia from diplomatic ones. diplomacy. Mr McCain believes in the G8. He also suggested expanding This is most obviously the case over maintaining contact with the North Ko• the organisation to include India and Iraq, as we explore in our next article, reans, primarily through multilateral Brazil but not China. But he has also though it is not limited to it. In predict• talks. He already talks much less than broken with the Bush administration ing American policy towards, to take he did about the league of democracies. by vowing to work closely with Russia another pressing instance, Iran, Ameri• Still, it is sensible to assume that Mr on nuclear disarmament and eliminat• cans and the world in general would be Obama places more faith in Œjaw, jaw ing tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. foolish not to assume that Mr McCain than Mr McCain does. This policy schizophrenia re‡ects an would be much more likely to reach for A third big di erence is over China ongoing power struggle within the the military option than Mr Obama. and Russia. The campaign has been so McCain campaign between the realists overshadowed by Iraq and Afghani• (who believe in careful engagement) How much more jaw, jaw? stan that there has been little room for and the neoconservatives (who favour The second big di erence is over diplo• discussing America’s relations with a hard line). No one can be entirely sure macy. Mr Obama hopes to use the pow• these two great powers. But dealing which side Mr McCain would incline er of negotiation to tackle some of the with them will clearly be central to the towards, should he become president. world’s most intractable problems. next president’s foreign policy, and Rus• But it is pretty clear which president During the primary he promised to sia’s assault on Georgia in August pow• would be the more confrontational (or hold unconditional talks with Ameri• erfully reminded the electorate that the robust, depending on how you see it) ca’s enemies, including the theocratic cold war is not entirely over. Mr towards Russia and probably China government of Iran. He promised to Obama’s †rst instinct was to appeal for too. This, too, should not be overstated: back talks between Israel and Syria in a talks: Mr McCain’s was to growl in Mos• Mr Obama quickly had to toughen up bid to break Damascus’s military alli• cow’s direction. his rhetoric on Russia back in August, ance with Tehran. He also put a lot of Both Russia and China pose pro• and Mr McCain’s presidential bite emphasis on using diplomatic tools to blems for America, and will go on do• would surely be less †erce than his can• solve the impasse over Israel and Pales• ing so during the next four years. Russia didate’s bark. But a McCain presidency tine. Mr McCain gives the impression is in the grip of an assertive nationalism would be the more prickly. 7

US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 9 H EALTH CARE Running for cover Fixing America’s troubled health system requires taming the twin demons of cost and coverage. Which to tackle †rst?

MERICA o ers the best health care course. If such people suddenly have tween the two candidates’ plans. The in the world. If you are lucky an accident or a heart attack, they still Obama team acknowledges that his enough to have proper insurance turn up at hospitals, which are required plan for coverage will be costly, and and be admitted to the Mayo by law to treat them. But such emergen• says he intends to pay for it in part from Clinic, the UCLA Medical Cen• cy care is often extremely expensive. the government’s co ers. In contrast, A tre or Johns Hopkins, you will Lack of insurance also discourages pru• Mr McCain’s advisers insist that his enjoy outstanding treatment. dent investments in prevention. plan will be revenue•neutral over the Unfortunately, as the tens of millions of So the uninsured problem ends by long haul, and will therefore require no uninsured and underinsured have dis• driving up overall costs too. That ex• new government money. covered, America o ers some of the plains why reforming the system will In some ways, Mr Obama’s decision most unreliable, costliest and least eq• require addressing both cost and cover• to tackle the coverage issue is not sur• uitable health care in the world too. age together. However, that is quite a prising. In addition to the legions of un• Two problems above all others have mouthful to chew, and politicians have insured, even those with corporate in• preoccupied those courageous enough generally chosen one or the other to fo• surance now fear their †rms will water to try to reform the $2.5 trillion colossus cus on as the †rst target for reform. down or scrap their coverage. Massa• that is America’s health•care system. The Clinton administration †rst chusetts has been pioneering reforms The †rst is expense. Costs in this sector tried to promote universal coverage that promise universal coverage, and have been soaring for decades, and in (ŒHillaryCare) and, when that failed, the pledge was a key plank in Hillary recent years have consistently climbed attempted to slash costs through the Clinton’s failed primary campaign. by 2.5 annual percentage points more Œmanaged care movement, which was Mr Obama aims to expand coverage than the growth rate for economic out• hated for restricting patients’ choices. through a mix of new regulations, poli• put. If these trends continue, the Con• George Bush’s modest attempts to con• cy reforms and subsidies. Under his gressional Budget Oˆce estimates that trol costs, by means of health savings plan, insurers would no longer have the Medicare and Medicaid (the govern• accounts, have borne little fruit. And right to reject anyone as too ill or too ment’s health schemes for the elderly paradoxically, by bowing in 2006 to a costly. He would create a ŒNational and the indigent) will soar to 20% of demand from the elderly for subsidised Health Insurance Marketplace (akin to GDP by 2050‹more than the entire fed• prescription drugs at a cost of perhaps the regulated Œconnector set up in eral budget. $500 billion or more over ten years, he Massachusetts) where individuals and The second big headache is cover• and the Republican Congress of the †rms could purchase either private in• age. Unlike other big industrialised time almost certainly fuelled another surance plans or public alternatives countries, America does not have a round of nasty health•cost in‡ation. modelled on Medicare. In future all but health system (whether government the smallest of corporations would be run, as in Britain and Canada, or a pub• Coverage or cost? required to o er insurance‹or pay a lic•private hybrid, as in Switzerland and Given this history, it is understandable sti †ne. Mr Obama would o er fam• France) that guarantees health cover to that Barack Obama and John McCain ilies tax credits for the purchase of ei• everyone. Around 46m Americans are have put forward plans that, although ther public or private insurance. uninsured, a †gure that has risen from more ambitious than Mr Bush’s e orts, Will it work? Mrs Clinton insisted it about 40m back in 1994. can hardly be called sweeping. Both would not. Her main objection was This does not mean these unfortu• candidates and their advisers insist pi• that this plan did not contain a key fea• nates receive no health care at all, of ously that their particular proposals ture shared by her plan and the Massa• tackle both cost and coverage. Not so. chusetts reforms: an individual man• Look closely and it becomes clear date, or legal requirement, to purchase Who would do a better job on... Health care? that the two men have, in fact, made a cover. Under Mr Obama’s plan, the % clear choice to go after one of the two only personal mandate is that parents 0 10 20 30 40 50 goals with more gusto: Mr Obama’s must buy insurance for their children. Barack Obama plan focuses on coverage, while Mr Fans of mandates argue that without John McCain McCain aims at cost. What is more, compulsion, reform e orts will be up• Proportion placing issue among top 3 concerns = 44% there is another clear distinction be• ended by the problem of adverse selec•1

10 US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 2 tion. Young and healthy people opt not save. Experts at the Tax Policy Centre ance. Mr McCain insists that very few to buy coverage, leaving a sicker and so (TPC), an independent think•tank big †rms will actually drop coverage. costlier risk pool. based in Washington, DC, ignore such But the boˆns at the TPC are uncon• Mr Obama’s pragmatic, and politi• claimed savings completely in doing vinced. They calculate that Mr cally clever, retort is that it is unreason• their sums. The TPC calculates the Obama’s plan will reduce the number able to require individuals to purchase McCain plan will cost about $1.3 trillion of uninsured quickly (by about 18m in something whose cost cannot be over ten years, while the Obama one 2009, and by 34m in 2018), but that Mr known with certainty in advance. will cost about $1.6 trillion. Any cost McCain’s plan would lower the num• Therefore, he insists, he will take mea• savings will reduce those sums. ber by only 1m•5m by 2013. sures that will both expand the insur• Mr McCain’s advisers reject that ance market and reduce the overall cost Penny•pinching analysis, arguing that the tax credit giv• of coverage by (he claims) some $2,500 At the heart of Mr McCain’s strategy is en to individuals to buy insurance on per typical family over time. That will the elimination of the tax advantage their own will allow millions of Ameri• make it so attractive to individuals to enjoyed by employer•provided health cans to get coverage, far o setting any buy insurance, say his advisers, that insurance over the sort obtained by in• decline in corporate cover. But given 98% of people will do so. dividuals directly with an insurer. This that a typical health plan for a family This points to a few question•marks tax break has been a politically popular costs $12,000 or so, it is unclear how about Mr Obama’s plan. One is that no• feature of America’s corporate land• many of the working poor will be moti• body knows how big the problem of scape since the second world war. vated by a $5,000 refundable credit. adverse selection will be in a system But most economists hate without mandates. But supporting his this giveaway, which costs argument for pragmatism is the trouble the Treasury over $200 bil• Reforming the that Massachusetts is †nding in imple• lion a year, arguing that it dis• menting its ambitious mandate. Al• torts the market in two ways. system will require though hefty subsidies are provided for It biases the market against the poorest and insurers have been individual plans, which re• addressing both cost pressured to o er cheaper plans, far ceive no such tax break. And more residents than expected have it ties employees to †rms, and coverage together found insurance una ordable and thus diminishing labour have therefore been granted waivers. market ‡exibility. The high•risk pools proposed by Mr One architect of the state’s plan says Mr McCain’s reforms would replace McCain also raise doubts. States that that unless costs are reined in rapidly, it that corporate subsidy with a refund• have experimented with this timid ap• Œwill fall apart in a couple of years. able tax credit, worth up to $5,000 per proach to reform have mostly failed. The second unknown concerns family, for people to buy their own in• In the end, both plans have their vir• how Mr Obama will pay for his plan, surance from anyone they like. He tues. With Mr Obama’s, the big un• which his advisers reckon may cost would allow them to purchase insur• known is how much it will really cost to $50•65 billion a year. He says he will use ance across state lines and through such reach near•universal coverage, while the $70 billion or so a year freed up by organisations as churches. Unlike Mr the uncertainty about Mr McCain’s rolling back Mr Bush’s income•tax cuts Obama, he will not force insurers to ac• strategy to tackle costs is whether it will for the wealthiest, but critics complain cept everyone, but he will o er federal do much to expand coverage. Given the that those tax cuts were supposed to ex• funding for state•run Œhigh•risk pools growing ranks of the underinsured and pire soon anyway. If his promised cost which (he claims) will defray the cost of an increasingly common view that this savings do not materialise, the plan will covering the sickest. is a scandal for a country as rich as become unsustainable. Will it work? Mr McCain certainly America‹never mind the 46m with no As with Mr McCain’s ideas on cost deserves applause for proposing an health insurance at all‹voters may savings (below), it is hard to estimate end to the employer subsidy. That is prefer the plan that promises to cover how much money Mr Obama’s policy worth doing, but it could make it less at• everyone quickly, and let future voters †xes (such as boosting prevention) will tractive for †rms to o er health insur• worry about the cost. 7

US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 11 I MMIGRATION The lurking monster Both candidates hope immigration will go away as a political issue. Both are likely to be disappointed

O ALMOST everyone’s relief, immigrants themselves. actly what voters say they want them immigration is no longer the ur• A series of polls carried out by Gal• to say. A politician who bangs on about gent issue that it was last year lup between 2001 and 2007 reveal an how illegal immigrants are damaging and in 2006. Unless they are in almost bipolar attitude to the issue. By the country’s economy and commit• front of Hispanic crowds, nei• large margins whites, blacks and His• ting crimes tends to sound at best like a T ther Barack Obama nor John panics agreed that immigration is pessimist, at worst like a bigot. Ameri• McCain says much about the broadly a good thing. Yet by similar, and cans want neither for a president, or subject. Polls show that people care in some cases even bigger margins, they even a representative. In the 2006 mid• much more about the economy and na• believe immigration has harmed, or at terms several Republican congressmen tional security. least failed to improve, the nation’s from border areas, noting the fury of But don’t be fooled. Immigration economy, job market and social values. their constituents, ran harsh anti•immi• has not disappeared as a political issue. They also held them responsible for ris• gration campaigns. To their puzzle• It is merely hiding in the swamp. Apart ing crime. Only the quality of food, mu• ment, they were swept from oˆce. from moral values such as abortion, no sic and the arts were thought to have A similar fate befell Tom Tancredo, a topic cuts so deeply into Americans’ improved as a result of immigration. one•note candidate for the presidency sense of who they are as a people. And And restaurants top few people’s lists who failed to make it even as far as the no subject is more diˆcult or danger• of priorities. Why the contradiction? Iowa caucuses. One reason for this, as One explanation is that he pointed out, was that other Republi• Americans are drawing a dis• can candidates had moved to Œout•Tan• Americans’ attitudes tinction between principle credo him by calling for an expanded and practice‹or what they border fence and tough enforcement of to immigration often assume to be practice. The immigration laws. This was to be ex• popular image of the immi• pected from an opportunist like Mitt seem erratic, even grant is a Mexican man who Romney. It was rather more of a sur• contradictory arrived in the country hid• prise when John McCain also lurched den in the back of a truck. rightward on the issue. More surprising There is no point in telling still, Mr McCain has not yet moved ous for politicians to handle. Immigra• people that most immigrants are nei• back to his former position. tion is to modern politics what violent ther illegal nor Mexican. This is the kind crime was in the 1980s: an apparently they see loitering outside hardware Blowing in the wind marginal issue that can swiftly over• stores in search of work, and on the eve• Until recently Mr McCain’s record on whelm a campaign. ning news. The illegal Mexican o ends immigration was so liberal that the Na• Americans’ attitudes to immigra• for several reasons. He has ‡outed the tional Council of La Raza has twice giv• tion often seem erratic, even contradic• nation’s laws and imported a foreign en him an award for his political work. tory. Liberals and conservatives alike language and customs. These days, He has long fought for Œcomprehen• assert that America is a land of immi• thanks largely to tighter border security, sive immigration reform‹code for any grants, as though this ends any argu• he is unlikely to go home again. change that would provide a route to ment over the matter. Only a tiny fringe This †gure has hardened attitudes to citizenship for illegals. This e ort culmi• wants to stop it altogether, and those immigrants but not, yet, to immigra• nated in the Immigration Reform Act of who believe there is too much immigra• tion. The principle that a ‡ow of new• 2007, which would have allowed virtu•1 tion are outnumbered by those who comers is what gives America its spe• think the ‡ow is about right or (a rarer cial character remains strong. Immi• position) too slow. Europeans, who of• gration is a litmus test of decency and Who would do a better job on... Immigration? ten complain about Americans’ insu• optimism about the future of the coun• % 0 10 20 30 40 50 larity and conservatism, are much less try. Most people want to pass it. welcoming. Yet Americans feel a mix• This helps to explain an odd feature Barack Obama ture of despair and contempt for the im• of the politics of immigration: candi• John McCain migration system and, frequently, for dates are often punished for saying ex• Proportion placing issue among top 3 concerns = 27%

12 US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 2 ally all illegal immigrants to remain in immigration issue has given Mr Obama The di erences between the candi• the country on a special ŒZ visa. After considerable room to manoeuvre. He dates’ positions are less striking than paying a †ne and back taxes, they could has nonetheless held a fairly orthodox the contrast in how they speak about il• apply for permanent residency and, liberal line on illegal immigration. He legal immigration. Mr Obama talks of eventually, citizenship. supports giving illegals a route to citi• giving hope to families living in fear of Although the bill also contained zenship and promises to make it a prior• raids and deportation. Mr McCain goes money for border security and was ity during his †rst year in oˆce. During no further than a general expression of supported by George Bush, many of Mr the primaries he expressed support for sympathy for ŒGod’s children. But he McCain’s fellow Republicans turned Eliot Spitzer, then the governor of New feels the pain of ordinary Americans against a measure that opponents had York, who was trying to grant driving li• who fret that they are being overrun. successfully labelled an Œamnesty. It cences to illegals. This is a totemic issue Mr McCain’s stance on immigration died in June, 2007 following an extraor• for liberal Hispanics, but unpopular is closer to that of the average Ameri• dinary barrage of phone calls by anti• with many others. can. Yet Mr Obama appears to have the immigration groups. The episode re• edge. He can point out, fairly, that his vealed one of the few clear lessons of Unwelcome guests opponent has ‡ip•‡opped on the issue. the politics of immigration: the people Like many politicians with roots in His liberal stance impresses Latinos, who feel strongly about it often feel troubled cities, Mr Obama is much less who remain angry at the Republican very strongly indeed. keen on increasing the number of guest party for caving in to nativist pressure When Mr McCain talks about the is• workers. This was also part of the im• last year. They account for more than a sue these days he sounds chastened. migration bill, but, thanks in part to tenth of the electorate in Arizona, Cali• The failure of immigration reform Senator Obama, it was severely pruned fornia, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New taught him a lesson, he says‹that even before the measure died. He Mexico, New York and Texas. They may Americans will tolerate a move to legal• backed a measure cutting the number decide extremely close races even in ise illegal immigrants only if they are of guest workers from 400,000 to states where they are thin on the assured the border has been †xed. The 200,000. He introduced another mea• ground, like Wisconsin. senator plans to achieve that through a sure that would have banned compa• Immigration is also one of the few combination of walls and electronic nies from employing guest workers in areas where Mr Obama’s race helps surveillance. Only when the governors areas of high unemployment and re• him. Blacks are more threatened by of the border states say the border is se• quired them to pay prevailing wages. competition from immigrants, particu• cure, will he do something about Amer• He also supported a move to end the larly illegal ones. Many †ghts in schools ica’s 12m illegal immigrants. programme after †ve years. Since the and prisons are between blacks and Unless the governors are prepared programme was about the only thing Latinos. As a result, a black politician to overlook quite a lot, it is unlikely that many Republicans liked about the im• who supports immigration reform a President McCain would ever get migration bill, this ruined its chances. comes across as particularly brave. around to the second stage of his plan. Just as a President McCain would Yet the issue can turn, and quickly. America’s border with Mexico is 2,000 have to soften his stance on border se• An e ective ad campaign could dredge miles (3,200km) long. It runs through curity in order to pass an immigration up submerged fears of immigrants and cities, mountains, rivers, desert and In• bill, so a President Obama would have push the issue close to the top of peo• dian reservations. It is possible to slash to tone down his anti•business rhetoric. ple’s concerns. As the economy sours, crossings in a particular area by ‡ood• Without support from businesspeople Americans will probably become less ing it with guardsmen or building it will be extremely diˆcult to persuade tolerant of those who compete for their walls. It is not, however, remotely possi• Republican politicians to go along with jobs. An illegal immigrant could com• ble to seal the whole thing. Britain, an reform. It is especially important to get mit a horri†c, widely•publicised crime. island nation with a more centralised farmers onside. They often depend on Working•class whites are already wary government and a far tighter surveil• illegal labour and can be a heavy coun• of Mr Obama. If immigration suddenly lance web, contains illegal immigrants terweight to nativist sentiments in rural rises from the swamp, they may well from as far away as China. areas. They also have powerful lobby• run straight into the arms of the newly Mr McCain’s move rightward on the ists in Washington. tough Mr McCain. 7

US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 13 E NERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT Greener than thou Both candidates are much greener than the president they are vying to replace. But there are still big di erences in their policies

ACK in July, in an early exchange McCain, in true Republican fashion, is Mr McCain wants to lift the long•stand• of hostile TV commercials, the less zealous in his environmentalism ing ban on drilling o the Atlantic and two candidates blasted away at and more forgiving of big business, Paci†c coasts (although, unlike Sarah one another’s energy policies. whereas Mr Obama, in keeping with Palin, he would keep the Arctic Nation• The Republican National Com• Democratic orthodoxy, envisages sti • al Wildlife Refuge o • limits). Bmittee told viewers in battle• er regulation for business and a bigger It is hard to understand why Mr ground states that Barack role for government. Obama opposes this idea, beyond a tra• Obama Œsays no to lower gas taxes. No Neither campaign, of course, wants ditional Democratic distaste for helping to nuclear. No to more production. No to admit its impotence at the pump. out big oil †rms‹indeed, he has said he new solutions. The Obama campaign, Both propose a slate of policies that might drop his objections in an e ort to naturally, disagreed. ŒOn gas prices, they claim will lower prices. Mr push a bipartisan legislative package on John McCain’s part of the problem, it McCain, most notably, has suggested energy. This was wise, since ŒDrill, retorted. suspending America’s relatively paltry baby, drill! has become an e ective Re• The subject of the scu‰e was no co• tax on fuel to make life easier for motor• publican slogan. Plenty of countries, incidence. More than any other issue ists. Mr Obama, meanwhile, wants to after all, manage to produce oil o shore save the general health of the economy, raise taxes on oil producers, and give without devastating environmental it is the price of petrol (gasoline) that is some of the proceeds to help those consequences, as America itself does in galvanising voters. The average price at hardest hit by the rise in energy prices. the Gulf of Mexico. the pump, though falling recently, is up On the other hand, Mr McCain more than a quarter on its level a year Oil or nothing seems to reject Mr Obama’s plan to ago. As motorists’ wails have grown Both these ideas may sound good to au• raise fuel•economy standards for vehi• louder, both camps have scrambled to diences on the campaign trail, but are cles out of traditional Republican sym• come up with reassuring proposals. likely to prove counterproductive in pathy for big business. Both candidates The problem is that there is little practice. Reducing the price of petrol have crossed Detroit’s carmakers over anyone can do to reduce the price of oil without increasing domestic supply, as the issue in the past. Last year Congress in the short term. And both candidates Mr McCain would do, would only en• approved the †rst big tightening of stan• also want America to do its bit to tackle courage people to drive more and dis• dards in decades. But Mr McCain says global warming by cutting its emissions courage conservation. That increase in he wants to concentrate on enforcing of greenhouse gases, which is hard to demand, in turn, is likely to push prices existing rules, rather than tightening do without increasing, rather than re• higher once more. The result would be them further. ducing, the cost of fuel. The result is in• similar petrol prices, but with more of These ideological biases are apparent coherent policies: long•term plans the money going to the nasty oil•fu• even in areas where the two candidates aimed at conserving energy and reduc• elled regimes Mr McCain claims to op• agree. Both, for example, are keen to en• ing emissions, undermined by short• pose, and less to Uncle Sam. courage the use of biofuels and batteries term sops to drivers. Mr Obama’s windfall tax is equally to reduce America’s reliance on import• For the most part the candidates ill•conceived. Higher taxes on energy ed oil and cut greenhouse•gas emissions. share similar views about energy and †rms will only raise the cost of produc• But Mr Obama tends to see bureaucratic the environment. To the extent that ing oil in America, and so discourage in• mandates as the way to do that, whereas they di er, it is over how far and by vestment. That, in time, would lead to Mr McCain is much keener to harness what means to advance this agenda. Mr lower domestic output, higher prices the market. (Neither will countenance a and greater reliance on those foreign carbon tax, the best way to do it.) petro•dictators, who are not Mr The Democrat envisages four over• Who would do a better job on... The environment? Obama’s favourites either. lapping sets of regulations to promote % To be fair, the candidates also have ethanol: a renewable•fuel standard, a 0 10 20 30 40 50 some reasonable policies on fuel prices, low•carbon•fuel standard, incentives Barack Obama though these will be slow to have an for producing cellulosic ethanol (from John McCain impact and are therefore harder to sell trees and grasses, rather than from corn Proportion placing issue among top 3 concerns = 15% to voters. To boost domestic oil supply, or sugar) and incentives for locally1

14 US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 2 owned ethanol distilleries. 2030, and favours subsidies for nuclear ratchet down the permitted level of Mr McCain, by contrast, shocked Io• power. He also wants to spend $2 bil• emissions each year, while giving in• wans by refusing to endorse subsidies lion a year helping utilities †gure out dustry as much ‡exibility as possible in for ethanol before the state’s pivotal how to †lter carbon dioxide out in their meeting the target. caucus, which he duly lost. With equal chimneys and bury, or sequester, it un• By championing cap•and•trade, Mr courage, he opposes the tari on im• derground. He has also proposed a McCain is already out of step with most ported ethanol, which is designed to $300m prize for anyone who comes up Republicans, many of whom are scepti• prevent foreigners from taking advan• with a battery that is small, cheap and cal about global warming and reluctant tage of the subsidies. He argues, rightly, powerful enough to propel electric cars to take bold steps to counter it. But on that these sops to farmers simply dis• into the mainstream. the †ner points of climate•change poli• tort the market for biofuels, and so pre• Still, all that pales next to Mr cy, the candidates re‡ect the predilec• vent the cheapest and greenest options Obama’s extravagant agenda. He plans tions of their parties. Mr McCain’s from prevailing. to spend a whopping $150 billion pro• scheme, perhaps unsurprisingly, is less Mr McCain does, however, have a moting clean energy. He wants the gov• rigorous: he wants to cut emissions by fondness for tax credits. He suggests ernment to double spend• one to encourage cleaner cars, another ing on scienti†c research, to encourage spending on research, and to retrain workers to take Ideological biases a third to promote renewable power. up Œgreen•collar jobs, to For the most part, these are broadly de• help overhaul grubby in• are apparent even in †ned incentives that would allow mar• dustries and to set up a kets rather than bureaucrats to pick the venture•capital fund to areas where the two most promising technologies. Indeed, bring new technology to unlike Mr Obama, he wants to replace market. He wants both the candidates agree the current patchwork of credits for dif• federal government and ferent forms of renewable power with the states to invest in an expensive up• 60% of their 1990 levels by 2050, com• a single, simpler system. grade of the electricity grid, the better to pared with Mr Obama’s 80%. He also But Mr McCain is not consistent. He bring renewable energy from windy plans to go easier on dirty industries: to has singled out nuclear and clean coal plains and sunny deserts to cities. A loy• begin with, he would distribute most of as two technologies that are worthy of al Democrat, he does not back building the permits to pollute free of charge, special attention. He says America any additional nuclear power stations. whereas Mr Obama intends to auction needs at least 45 new nuclear plants by Mr Obama is also keen to steer more them all from the start. funds towards public transport. He Ultimately these nuances are likely seems as keen to meddle in the details to prove relatively inconsequential. Pump pressure of the energy business as Mr McCain Messrs McCain and Obama both seem US regular “Petrol prices are seems reluctant. He has even set a keener than most on cutting America’s gasoline, extremely important”, date‹2014‹for phasing out incandes• emissions and encouraging other coun• cents per gallon % replying yes cent light bulbs, which are less eˆcient tries to do the same. But either would 430 70 than the compact ‡uorescent sort. struggle to prevent their plans from be• 400 65 ing watered down by a reluctant Con• 370 60 Green and greener gress. Either would face enormous pro• 340 55 At †rst glance, the candidates seem in blems persuading the Senate to ratify a complete accord on the subject of cli• treaty on climate change, which it has 310 50 mate change. They both advocate a to do by a two•thirds majority. Ameri• 280 45 cap•and•trade scheme, whereby the ca’s debate about energy and climate government sets an overall limit on car• change is far too contentious, and too ND JFMAMJJAS bon•dioxide emissions, and then issues new, to be resolved in a single election. 2007 2008 a corresponding number of tradable It will surely be the subject of attack ads Sources: EIA; The Associated Press-Yahoo Poll permits to pollute. The intention is to for decades to come. 7

US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 15 E DUCATION Still at risk Can the candidates †x America’s decidedly mediocre schools?

Œ UR nation is at risk. Our once un• culmination of a long push to set high Œinnovative schools fund would help challenged pre•eminence in standards and hold schools account• districts to create a portfolio of success• commerce, industry, science able for meeting them. It requires states ful school types, including charters. and technological innovation is to test students on maths and reading; Perhaps most interesting are his being overtaken by competitors science is being added. Schools that do plans for teachers. He would give extra Othroughout the world. So re• not progress towards meeting state money to districts that work with their ported an education commission standards face †nancial sanctions. unions to form Œcareer ladders. These in 1983. That report was a turning point But the law is hotly debated. George could include pay increases for a list of for American schools, helping spur a Miller, a Democratic congressman, calls achievements, from teaching in hard• wave of reform. But 25 years later the NCLB Œthe most negative brand in to•sta schools to lifting students’ per• state of American education is in a America‹and he was one of the law’s formance. But a good scheme on paper muddle. architects. Teachers’ unions utter no may be diluted in practice. Negotiations In some ways its public schools four•letter word with more vitriol than over pay are messy at best. have improved. America’s nine•year• NCLB. They say the law forces Œteach• For his part, Mr McCain o ers pro• olds scored 22 points higher on a na• ing to the test, that the sanctions are mising opinions but few details. He tional maths test in 2004 than they had too strong and the carrots too small. supports NCLB but has said little about in 1982. But in many areas America still Even those who still support the law how to strengthen its main tenets. He languishes, as described in a recent re• †nd problems with it. NCLB, for exam• supports charter schools (like Mr port by Ed in ’08, an advocacy group. ple, does not chart a student’s progress. Obama) and voucher programmes (un• The percentage of 17•year•olds with ba• Some states have set their standards like Mr Obama, who is dead•set against sic reading skills has dropped, from very low. Some 90% of Mississippi’s them), but has said little about how he 80% in 1992, when the current test was fourth•graders were labelled Œpro†• might expand them. His boldest ideas introduced, to 73% in 2005. On the inter• cient or better on a state reading test in centre around using federal money to national stage, American students are 2007; only 22% were so described after let parents choose tutors and principals doodling while others scribble ahead. a national test. reward good teachers. The Organisation for Economic Co•op• Unsurprisingly, advocates from all In the debate over how a president eration and Development has a glum corners are trying to make education a might help America’s schools, a main statistic: in the most recent ranking of 15• main campaign issue. Ed in ’08 points obstacle is that, traditionally, it has not year•olds’ skill in maths, America out that many of the proposals from ŒA been his job to help them much at all. ranked 25th out of 30. Though Ameri• Nation at Risk have been ignored: The national government provides less ca’s universities remain pre•eminent in standards remain weak, few districts than 10% of total spending on schools. the world, they have grown increasing• pay teachers by results and calls for a Indeed, states and cities continue to be ly una ordable. Barack Obama notes longer school year have gone unheed• the boldest innovators. Chicago is that between 2001 and 2010, 2m quali• ed. But despite a budget of $60m, Ed in opening dozens of new schools, includ• †ed students will not go to university ’08’s campaign has had little impact. ing charter schools, in its poorest areas. because they cannot a ord it. Mr Obama is at least taking the pro• Cities such as Denver and New York E orts to move America forward blem seriously. His plans run the gam• now have schemes to reward teachers have proceeded †tfully. A federal bill, ut, from grants for preschool pro• for their skill. The results there are mild• No Child Left Behind (NCLB) was grammes to a $4,000 tax credit for ly encouraging. passed with broad support in 2002, the university fees. He is vague about The two candidates o er di erent NCLB, but has resisted calls to throw plans for how they might push these re• out the law. He suggests improving it forms along. Both, however, have large• Who would do a better job on... Education? through more sophisticated tests, mea• ly overlooked the most obvious role. At % suring students’ progress over time and the very least, the next president could 0 10 20 30 40 50 giving schools more resources. In Sep• help to create a better benchmark for Barack Obama tember he announced new plans to student achievement. As Mississippi John McCain double federal funding for indepen• proves all too well, a state standard can Proportion placing issue among top 3 concerns = 16% dent or Œcharter schools. A separate be an elastic ruler. 7

16 US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 C RIME Hanging †re Neither candidate has talked much about crime. But what they have said is highly revealing

N 1988 Michael Dukakis, the soared by 56% in Oakland, California; one of the reasons for it: the disparity in Democratic presidential nominee, the next year Newark, New Jersey, sentencing for possession of crack and was asked whether he would sup• counted as many dead bodies as it had powder cocaine. He hints at a review of port the death penalty for some• in the early 1990s. The tide soon ebbed mandatory minimum sentences. body who had raped and mur• in both cities, but complacency had He comes up with di erent sol• I dered his wife. No, he said been shaken. Now two other threats utions, too. Oddly, Mr Obama is much calmly‹he had always opposed loom, in the form of an economic more likely to inveigh against broken capital punishment. His poll numbers downturn and a wave of ex•convicts families. He links the epidemic of single plunged, and a few weeks later he car• due to be released from prisons. Statisti• parenthood among blacks to the high ried just ten states. The Democrats took cally and politically, crime is back. rate of black criminality (this provoked a lesson from this: don’t talk about Law and order is one area in which Jesse Jackson to whisper that he want• crime and the death penalty, or, if you John McCain’s reputation as a maver• ed to Œcut his nuts o ). Like a liberal do, talk tough. ick is misplaced. His views on crime are 1960s sociologist, he sees crime as a pro• Until recently it was easy to say little. thoroughly orthodox for a Republican. duct of society. Like a conservative, he Three years after Mr Dukakis’s com• He favours long sentences for internet blames it on the breakdown of tradi• ments crime began to tumble. The predators, gang members number of robberies fell from 688,000 and repeat violent o enders. in 1991 to just 401,000 in 2004 even as He wants child molesters Law and order is one area the population increased (see chart). tracked until they die. He is The only thing policemen, mayors and against Œoverreaching in which John McCain’s presidents were expected to say was judges who stop incriminat• how splendid this was. Apart from a ing evidence from being reputation as a maverick few liberals, who fretted about the ex• heard in court. He is strongly panding prison population, most be• against judges who strike is misplaced lieved that the problem was solved. down laws like Louisiana’s Then something alarming hap• death penalty for child rapists. He is tional values, not on inequality. pened. Between 2004 and 2006 mur• most opposed of all to those who stop He does, however, think the federal ders went up by 5% and robberies by law•abiding Americans carrying guns. government can provide one thing: 11%. The increase was driven by some Barack Obama has largely kept to cash. Mr Obama says he will restore terrifying surges in medium•sized cit• the post•Dukakis doctrine. He has been funding to Bill Clinton’s ŒCOPS pro• ies. Between 2005 and 2006 murders much quieter on the subject than his gramme, which aimed to put 100,000 opponent, and when he speaks it is usu• extra oˆcers on the streets. He bashes ally to take a populist position. Like Mr his opponent for voting against the Crime doesn’t pay McCain, he publicly disagreed with the measure. Although the programme’s Number of robberies nationwide, ’000 Supreme Court’s ruling on the death e ect on crime rates has been disputed, penalty in Louisiana. He also praised mayors and police chiefs are keen on it. 687,732 Totals the court’s decision to strike down a With virtually all large and medium• 700 handgun ban in Washington, DC. sized American cities now under 650 Beyond the sound bites, the candi• Democratic control, expect a lot of co• 600 dates are far apart. Mr McCain sees ordinated campaigning on the issue. 7 550 crime as a disease and the criminal•jus• tice system as the cure. He thinks the 500 442,032 government should tip the †ght to the Who would do a better job on... Crime? 450 good guys by toughening sentences % 0 10 20 30 40 50 400 and building more prisons. Mr Obama thinks the justice system itself is ‡awed. Barack Obama 1991 93 95 97 99 2001 03 05 07 He complains about the large number John McCain Proportion placing issue among top 3 concerns = 5% Sources: FBI Uniform Crime Reports; The Economist of black men in prison, together with

US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 17 V ALUES Endless culture war Pastimes and preachers may matter as much as guns and butter

MERICA has no shortage of seri• maverick with no time for the guard• losing his Senate seat and conservative ous issues to discuss. The Bush ad• ians of cultural orthodoxy on either ballot measures going down to defeat. ministration launched a pre•emp• side. During his bid for the Republican Both Mr Obama and Mr McCain tive war on Iraq on the basis of nomination in 2000 he denounced two also had good reasons for avoiding faulty intelligence. America has of the most powerful Christian conser• some of the most emotive issues in pol• Aseen the most serious decline in vatives, Pat Robertson and Jerry Fal• itics. Mr Obama, like most Democrats its global image since the sec• well, as Œagents of intolerance. Lead• recently, has ducked the issue of re• ond world war. Its budget de†cit has ing conservatives fought furiously stricting gun ownership. He does not ballooned, while recession looms. against his nomination: they regarded want to alienate Democratic•leaning And what was America discussing him as squishy on abortion and down• gun owners, particularly in the West, in the wake of the Democratic and Re• right wrong on gay marriage. They one of the most important swing re• publican conventions? Whether an o • want a constitutional amendment ban• gions in the country. hand comment by Barack Obama ning gay marriage, while he thinks the Mr McCain trod lightly on the sub• about Œlipstick on a pig was sexist. decision should be left to the states. ject of stem•cell research, because he Whether the phrase Œcommunity or• Mr McCain has also long been visi• has a more liberal position than his ganiser, used by Republicans about bly unhappy with the weaponry of the party base. Both candidates were reluc• Mr Obama, is racist. culture wars. He belongs to a genera• tant to discuss gay marriage, because John McCain’s decision to choose tion of Republicans‹Gerry Ford and they realised that giving in to their Sarah Palin as his running•mate put the Bob Dole were other examples‹who party’s activists (for gay marriage in the culture wars back at the heart of the felt that these sorts of things should be Democrats’ case, for a constitutional election. Mrs Palin is an evangelical discussed in private (if at all) rather ban on it in the Republicans’) might Christian. She opposes abortion even than shouted about in the public alienate middle•of•the•road voters. in cases of rape, and recently gave birth square. Mr McCain is much happier Both candidates endorsed a compro• to a Down’s syndrome child. She sup• talking about the warrior virtues of mise‹supporting civil partnerships ports banning gay marriage. courage and service than telling the and allowing the marriage question to Mr McCain’s choice of Mrs Palin world how Jesus changed his heart. be decided by voters in the states. was greeted with derision by the me• Mr Obama, for his part, is a natural dia. But this derision created a reaction mediator (or Œfudger to his critics). His The warriors resurrected that is reshaping the political land• way is to smooth over di erences, not But the idea that America might escape scape. The Republicans struck back by sharpen them. In his career•making from another round of the culture wars releasing a swarm of ads designed to speech to the Democratic convention in was always naive. They have been a †x• present Mr Obama as a hoity•toity lib• 2004 he argued that there is a ŒUnited ture of politics ever since Richard Nix• eral elitist. And Mr McCain, for the †rst States of America, not Œred states and on raised his standard on behalf of the time, brie‡y took the lead in the polls. blue states. Mr Obama argued that Œsilent majority in the late 1960s. They The descent of American politics Democrats had made a mistake in re• are driven by a simple fact: many Amer• into pig•wrestling has dismayed Ameri• fusing to address religious issues or icans are all too eager to go to war over ca’s best friends abroad. Both presiden• court evangelical voters. values. Conservative evangelicals and tial candidates seemed di erent, at †rst, Nor should the circumstances have liberal professionals not only live in dif• from the traditional culture warriors. been propitious for a repeat of the cul• ferent worlds, both geographically and Mr McCain made his reputation as a ture wars. Americans have plenty be• culturally. They are hard•wired to dis• sides heaven on their minds. And be• like each other‹conservative evangeli• sides, the conservative side of the cals to feel that the liberal professionals Who would do a better job on... Values? culture war has been in a serious funk: look down on them, and liberal profes• % disillusioned with George Bush, riven sionals to regard the evangelicals as 0 10 20 30 40 50 by faction †ghts and uncertain about knuckle•draggers who are bent on im• Barack Obama the future. It su ered catastrophic de• posing a theocracy. John McCain feats in the 2006 mid•terms, with con• Messrs McCain and Obama are also Proportion placing issue among top 3 concerns = 15% servative heroes such as Rick Santorum products of di erent times, and very1

18 US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 2 di erent backgrounds. Mr McCain de• ŒBittergate and the Wright a air un• cide on the legality of abortion through scends from a long line of warriors, derlined the fact that Mr Obama’s big• the ballot box. America does it through lives on a ranch and was born in the gest liability in the election is a cultural the Supreme Court. This not only di• 1930s. Mr Obama was born in the utter• one: he simply does not seem like an vides America between pro•choice ab• ly di erent 1960s, a post•baby•boomer average Joe. He has an odd name and solutists (who regard even late•term whose generation escaped the bitter• an exotic background, and 12% of and partial•birth abortion as accept• ness of Vietnam, who has a mixed•race Americans believe that he is a Muslim. able) and pro•life absolutists (who background and who has spent his ca• Hillary Clinton, his main challenger for think that abortion is wrong even in reer in universities and big•city politics. the Democratic nomination, did strik• cases of incest or rape). It also means They summon up very di erent emo• ingly better than Mr Obama among that many cast their presidential vote tions in their supporters, with Mr white•working•class voters. on the basis of who the president will McCain’s talking of Œcountry †rst and Most important of all is that the Re• nominate for the Supreme Court. Œcourage, and Mr Obama’s of racial publicans have no choice but to turn The court currently has a soft con• and global reconciliation. the election into a culture war. Almost servative majority, with Anthony Ken• Even before the Republicans ap• 80% of Americans think the country is nedy acting as the swing vote. Mr Bush plied a match to the touchpaper, culture on the wrong track. George Bush has an appointed two conservatives to the wars kept ‡aring up out of nowhere. approval rating of 32%. The most dramatic explosion was ignit• Most people think the Iraq ed by Jeremiah Wright, Mr Obama’s war was a mistake. The There are two good long•term pastor: a man who led the collapse of mighty banks young Mr Obama to God, presided at like Lehman Brothers and reasons for thinking that his marriage, baptised his two daugh• Bear Stearns are bad news ters and provided him with the title of for anyone with a pen• the culture wars have a his bestselling memoir, ŒThe Audacity sion. And Democratic so• of Hope. A YouTube video showed Mr cial policies are much lot of life left in them Wright arguing that America was to more popular than Repub• blame for its chickens coming home to lican ones: more than 60% of evangeli• court, John Roberts and Samuel Alito, roost on September 11th 2001. We cals, a highly conservative group, fa• who are likely to be around for decades. should not say ŒGod bless America, vour Democratic policies on health The next president is likely to appoint at the reverend averred, but ŒGod damn care. If the election is fought about any• least one new justice: John Paul Ste• America. thing except culture, then the Republi• vens, a liberal, is 88, and Ruth Bader The second ‡are•up was ŒBitter• cans are on diˆcult ground. Ginsburg, another liberal, is 75. If Mr gate. Mr Obama complained to a They are also much better at culture McCain wins the White House, he group of well•heeled San Francisco do• wars than the Democrats, who awk• could solidify the conservative major• nors that the reason some working• wardly need to appeal to both liberal ity for a generation; if Mr Obama wins, class voters had not warmed to him professionals and blue•collar workers. he will at least be able to hold the pre• was because, in their bitterness over Steve Schmidt, Mr McCain’s bullet• sent wavering line. This calculation, in• their economic woes, they clung to headed chief campaign strategist, is a evitably, is in the forefront of the think• guns and religion. Mr Obama was cer• protégé of Karl Rove who relishes goug• ing of some of the most committed tainly right that he found it diˆcult to ing out the eyes of his enemies. He has activists in the country. connect with ordinary voters. He already produced a series of ads which Mr McCain and Mr Obama once looked uneasy holding a beer. He even Mr Rove has criticised for going sold themselves as politicians who talked about the price of arugula. He too far. could overcome the divisive politics of performed dismally at bowling. the likes of George Bush and Hillary Mr Obama upbraided Mr Wright in Playing for keeps Clinton. The sad truth is that they are a widely•praised speech in Philadel• There is a more substantive reason why now †ghting a classic culture war that phia on race relations and subsequent• the culture wars remain at the heart of will leave the country more divided ly resigned from his church. But both American politics. Most countries de• over Œvalues than ever. 7

US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008 19 The three elections

Voters must decide whether the economy, security or Œvalues matter most to them

UT all this together and what do you get? Is who favours big tax cuts, a simpler tax code, mini• this, as cheerleaders on both sides claim, mal government intervention and enthusiastic the most consequential election in a gener• use of the veto pen. Mr Obama has a fondness for ation, or will little change? Will Barack complicated subsidies and targeted tax breaks, Obama, if elected, soon †nd that Washing• and an underlying belief in the power of govern• P ton Œboils all the hope out of him? Will ment to improve things. His tax cuts would lessen John McCain †nd that once in the Oval Of• the burden on the average worker, rather than the †ce the maverick becomes a mouse? entrepreneur and business: the central bench• The †rst answer is that, no matter which con• mark for his policies will be an improvement in tender wins the prize, America will tread a very America’s stagnant median wage. Mr McCain’s di erent path from the gloomy one down which economic plans are more clearly focused on pro• George Bush has taken it. Both Mr McCain and Mr moting overall growth. Obama set greater store by multilateral organisa• The biggest di erence between the two men’s tions and the value of partnership than Mr Bush domestic policies is not on the economy, but on has done. Either would close the prison at Guan• health care. Mr Obama is determined to move tánamo Bay, that standing insult to civilised glo• America to near•universal coverage, and Mr bal values, and either would sign America up for McCain is not: he hopes to drive down overall some form of climate•control agreement. Either costs through promoting more competition. Vot• would †nd himself travelling a good deal more ers strongly prefer the Obama version; but it will be pricey. And money is tight. On foreign policy, the candi• Whoever wins, America dates are closer than is often sup• posed. On all past and present will tread a very di erent path form, Mr McCain would be gru er towards Russia and Chi• from the gloomy one down na than Mr Obama, but the younger man is not about to roll which George Bush has taken it over for either one. Over Iraq there are huge divides in theory; than the embattled Mr Bush has done, not least but in practice either man is likely to conduct a gra• because they will be assured of a much more dual withdrawal over the next two or three years. sympathetic welcome‹though there is no doubt There are some large di erences, though: Mr that Mr Obama would get the warmer one. McCain wants a much bigger increase in military At home, either presidency would di er mark• spending than Mr Obama does, and on any reason• edly from Mr Bush’s dismal last few years during able assessment, he is more likely to use force, if di• which, all political capital squandered, he has plomacy fails, to counter Iran’s nuclear ambitions. been unable to get anything of consequence With all this at stake, it would be sad if the elec• done. If Mr McCain is in charge, his record of bi• tion turned on divisive cultural issues like abor• partisan outreach will stand him in good stead; tion, where the chances of resolution are slim. Mr Obama will be able to rely on solid majorities ŒValues could yet tip the balance. Though Mr in Congress. So either man seems better equipped Obama shows signs of pulling ahead, this is still is than Mr Bush was to break through the partisan a close election, with Mr McCain’s advantage on logjam that bedevils America’s politics. security countering Mr Obama’s on the economy. The second conclusion is that it really does But with the markets still reeling, we think the matter who is chosen. Sharp contrasts distinguish winner is likely to be the man who shows he best the two men both in philosophy and in policy. understands and can help the anxious average These are starkest in the domestic arena. Mr American. This newspaper will cast its vote in our McCain is at heart a classical economic liberal November 1st issue. 7

20 US Election 2008 The Economist October 4th 2008