January 2013

Monthly Forecast

2 In Hindsight: Security Overview Council Working Methods 3 Status Update since our Pakistan will preside over the Security Council voluntary and UN-funded logistics support December Forecast in January. packages for the African-led International Open debates are planned on a comprehensive Support Mission in Mali (AFISMA); and 4 Mali approach to counter-terrorism and a multidimen- • the rule of law, most likely by the Deputy 6 UNOWA (West Africa) sional approach to peacekeeping. Foreign Minis- Secretary-General, Jan Eliasson. 7 Côte d’Ivoire ter Hina Rabbani Khar is expected to preside over Briefings in consultations are likely on: 9 Sudan and South Sudan the counter-terrorism debate and both debates • the work of and the latest Secretary-Gener- 10 Sudan/Darfur are likely to include a briefing by the Secretary- al’s report on the UN Peacekeeping Force in General. There is also going to be the quarterly Cyprus (UNFICYP) by Lisa Buttenheim, the 12 Central African Republic open debate on the Middle East, with a briefing Special Representative and head of mission; 13 Burundi expected from the Special Coordinator for the • developments in Sudan and South Sudan by 14 Libya Middle East Peace Process, Robert Serry. Special Envoy of the Secretary-General Haile 15 Israel/Palestine A briefing is expected on developments Menkerios (twice, in line with resolution 17 Yemen in Yemen, by the Secretary-General’s Special 2046); and Adviser, Jamal Benomar. • the work of the UN Regional Centre for 17 Cyprus Briefings, followed by consultations are likely on: Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia 19 UNRCCA (Central Asia) • developments in the Central African Repub- (UNRCCA), by its head Miroslav Jenča. 20 Notable Dates lic and the latest Secretary-General’s report The Council will also be following closely on the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in developments in the Democratic Republic of the the Central African Republic (BINUCA) by Congo and Syria and may hold meetings on these Margaret Vogt, the Secretary-General’s Special situations. Representative and head of BINUCA; A formal meeting will be needed to adopt • developments in Côte d’Ivoire and the latest the renewal of the mandate of BINUCA and Secretary-General’s report on the UN Oper- UNFICYP. • ation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) by Albert Gerard Koenders, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNOCI; • developments in Libya by Tarek Mitri, the Special Representative of the Secretary-Gen- eral and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL); • developments in Burundi and the latest Sec- retary-General’s report on the UN Office in Burundi (BNUB) by Parfait Onanga-Any- anga, the Special Representative of the Secre- tary-General and head of BNUB; • the work of the UN Office for West Africa (UNOWA) and the Secretary-General’s report by Said Djinnit, the Secretary-General’s Spe- 21 December 2012 cial Representative and head of UNOWA; This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. • the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the AU-UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNA- For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please MID) by the head of the UN Peacekeeping subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” Department, Hervé Ladsous; series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. • the Secretary-General’s further options for a

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 1 IN HINDSIGHT: Security Council Working Methods

On 26 November 2012, the Council held members supported a process, with the par- that Ambassador Paul Seger (Switzerland) an open debate on its working methods (S/ ticipation of all members, to appoint the on 16 May had said the permanent members PV.6870 and resumption 1). It was the fifth chairs in a “balanced, transparent, efficient had expressed their willingness to consider open debate on the subject since the first and inclusive way.” the S5’s recommendations seriously. Japan in 1994 and followed an equivalent debate Nevertheless, at press time, decisions asked, rhetorically, whether any tangible organised by Portugal on 30 November 2011 regarding the 2013 chairmanships had just progress had been made since. (S/PV.6672 and resumption 1). (See our Jan- been finalised, and no agreement had been Singapore was emphatic in its criticism uary 2012 Monthly Forecast for background reached on the “pen-holders” issue. (The of the P5, suggesting that there was discon- information.) disconnect between the pen-holders and the nect between the permanent members’ pub- The 26 November all-day meeting chairs of the subsidiary bodies is particularly lic statements and their actions behind closed enabled member states to take stock of glaring, as the former “trumps” the latter doors where they appeared to block improve- what had been an eventful year on working when drafting Council decisions.) ments. On the use of the veto, France reiter- methods. States commended Portugal for its The open debate saw many recurring ated that it supported the P5 “voluntarily and proactive leadership of the Informal Work- points raised. The permanent members largely jointly forgoing the use of the veto in situations ing Group that addresses working methods. espoused familiar positions, emphasising that under the Council’s consideration in which (Russia observed that the group had taken on the key test for the Council was its effective- mass atrocities are being committed and, more a “new dynamism”.) ness in preventing and resolving international generally, which pertain to the responsibility to Several states welcomed the discussions conflict, with the UK pointing to practical protect.” The other P5 members have kept that took place in 2012 aimed at increasing changes made to improve its efficiency. silent on this, notwithstanding that some have the interactivity and efficiency of the Coun- Within the context of the Council’s called the vetoes on Syria “despicable” (US) cil, which culminated in a presidential note enhanced interaction with non-members, and “inexcusable and indefensible” (UK). on 5 June (S/2012/402). This note included many spoke in favour of the increasing num- Some new ideas emerged. Liechtenstein, references to the increased use of video- ber of open debates, as well as encouraging supported by Switzerland, proposed that a conferencing and of the more streamlined the use of flexible and innovative formats subsidiary body address accountability issues scheduling of Council work, among other such as “Arria formula” meetings and infor- of relevance to the Council, including noti- housekeeping issues. mal interactive dialogues. Russia said that fications from the International Criminal While acknowledging these positives, while it advocated a “reasonable increase” Court on non-cooperation. New Zealand some states observed that improvements in the number of Council open debates, the proposed that a Council open debate be held had been important but also “modest” and “great importance” of closed consultations in 2013 focused on improving working meth- that within the Working Group, as stated by should be recognised. odologies under Chapter VI (Pacific Settle- Liechtenstein, progress remained “limited Permanent members also reasserted that ments of Disputes). South Africa suggested and slow.” The chair of the Working Group, any potential modifications to the work- that the president of the Council interact reg- Ambassador José Filipe Moraes Cabral (Por- ing methods were the “responsibility of the ularly with the chairperson of the AU Peace tugal), alluded to some of the challenges the Council itself” (Russia). China and the US and Security Council. group faced when he briefed the Council on noted that the UN Charter provides that the Speaking on behalf of the Non-Aligned 7 December: “It is never easy to get away Council shall adopt its own rules of proce- Movement (NAM), Iran welcomed Council from routine, which is always more comfort- dure (Article 30). (Less attention was paid meetings with troop-contributing countries able than change; so it is a difficult task to to Article 10, which states that the General as part of wider efforts to improve peacekeep- generate interest in new measures, to discuss Assembly may make recommendations to the ing operations. It also noted that the NAM their usefulness and practicability and to Council on its powers and functions.) was in favour of informal wrap-up sessions adopt them” (S/PV.6881). Several speakers referred to the work in at the end of each presidency. (As Council Several initiatives that had been discussed 2012 of the Small Five group (S5), particu- President in January, Pakistan seems set to during the year were raised during the open larly its list of twenty recommendations for schedule such a session.) This suggestion was debate, notably the role of “pen-holders”, the Council to consider regarding its work- included in another presidential note agreed which Germany said should increasingly ing methods (A/66/L.42/Rev.2). (See our on 12 December (S/2012/922). The note include elected members. The desire for November 2012 Monthly Forecast for a back- also contained language aimed at enhanc- inclusive consultations on the appointment ground.) Several member states mentioned ing interaction with member states, such as of chairs of the subsidiary bodies also fea- the worthiness of these recommendations. suggesting that Council members alternate tured prominently. Some members suggested that discussions their interventions with non-Council mem- Following the open debate and several needed to go beyond presidential note 507 bers during open debates. Furthermore, the attempts to reach consensus during the pre- (S/2010/507), hitherto seen as the reference note encouraged the inclusion of more sub- ceding months, Council members agreed point for working methods improvements stantive information in the annual report the upon a presidential note (S/2012/937) of 17 and that the S5 recommendations should Council must submit to the General Assem- December on the “chairpersons of subsidiary serve as the “yardstick”. Japan, which played bly in accordance with Article 24(3) of the organs” issue. The note stated that Council a key role in negotiating note 507, recalled UN Charter. •

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 Status Update since our December Forecast

DRC in consultations on 6 December on the final country (S/2012/887). Morocco, chair of On 30 November, the 1533 DRC Sanctions report of its Panel of Experts (S/2012/901). the 2048 Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Commit- Committee added two M23 rebel group On 12 December, the Council adopted res- tee, also briefed. On 13 December, Council leaders—Baudoin Ngaruye and Innocent olution 2079 renewing for a year both the members issued a press statement expressing Kaina—to the sanctions list (SC/10842). On sanctions regime on Liberia and the mandate “serious concern” over the lack of progress 7 December, Council members were briefed of the Panel. The resolution mandated the in the restoration of constitutional order in in consultations by peacekeeping head Hervé Panel to conduct two follow-up assessment Guinea-Bissau. The statement noted that sta- Ladsous on recent developments in North missions to Liberia and neighbouring states bilisation can only be achieved through genu- Kivu after the M23 pulled out of Goma on 1 “to investigate and compile” a midterm and ine dialogue and effective civilian oversight December and on the efforts of the Interna- final report on the implementation, and any of the military and condemned the armed tional Conference on the Great Lakes Region. violations, of the measures on arms, including attacks of 21 October expressing deep con- On 18 December, Council members were the various sources of financing, such as from cern over the reports of killings and serious briefed again by Ladsous and by the Secre- natural resources, for the illicit trade of arms. human rights violations in the aftermath of tary-General’s Chef de Cabinet, Susana Mal- those attacks (SC/10857). corra, on her recent visit to Kinshasa. Subsidiary Bodies On 7 December, the Council was briefed DPRK (North Korea) Iraq/Kuwait by the chairs of the subsidiary bodies whose On 12 December, following the missile On 1 December, the Security Council issued a countries will be finishing their term on the launch by the DPRK, Morocco, as President press statement welcoming the joint request of Council on 31 December, including Colom- of the Council, read out remarks to the press Iraq and Kuwait to reactivate the Iraq-Kuwait bia on Iran and Sudan sanctions, Germany which had been agreed on by all Council Boundary Maintenance Project, and calling on Al-Qaida and Taliban sanctions and the members. (These so-called “elements” to the on Iraq to complete field maintenance work working group on children and armed con- press are more informal than a press state- on the project in a timely manner (SC/10843). flict, India on Somalia and Eritrea sanctions, ment.) The remarks condemned the launch On 18 December, Council members were Portugal on Libya and DPRK sanctions, and as a “clear violation” of resolutions 1718 and briefed in consultations by the current High- South Africa on the ad hoc working group on 1874 and recalled that in its 16 April presi- Level Coordinator, Gennady Tarasov, on conflict prevention and resolution in Africa dential statement, the Council had demanded the Secretary General’s most recent report (S/PV.6881). that the DPRK not proceed with further on Iraq/Kuwait missing persons and prop- launches and expressed its “determination erty (S/2012/931). At press time, no decision The Sahel to take action accordingly in the event of a had been reached regarding the renewal of At the initiative of Morocco, the Council held further DPRK launch” (S/PRST/2012/13). the funding for the High-Level Coordinator, a high-level meeting on the Sahel presided by Finally, the statement noted that Council which was set to expire on 31 December. Foreign Minister Saad-Eddine Al Othmani members would “continue consultations on on 10 December. The Secretary-General and an appropriate response.” At press time, no Tribunals the Special Envoy for the Sahel, Romano formal Council action had been taken. On 4 December, the informal working group Prodi, as well as representatives from several on international tribunals met with the presi- regional organisations made statements (S/ Peacekeeping dents and prosecutors of the ICTY and ICTR PV.6882). On 10 December, the Council On 12 December, the Under-Secretaries- who also briefed the Council on 5 December adopted a presidential statement expressing General for Peacekeeping and Field Support, (S/PV.6880). On 12 December, the Council serious concern over the insecurity and the Hervé Ladsous and Ameerah Haq, briefed adopted resolution 2080 extending the terms significant ongoing humanitarian crisis in the the Council on inter-mission cooperation of five permanent judges of the ICTR until Sahel region, “which is further complicated between UN peacekeeping operations (S/ 31 December 2014. On 17 December, the by the presence of armed groups, including PV.6886). Ladsous focused on cooperation Council adopted resolution 2081 extend- separatist movements, terrorist and criminal involving the temporary transfer or sharing of ing the terms of 13 permanent judges of the networks, and their increased activities, as personnel or equipment among two or more ICTY until 31 December 2013 and the terms well as the continued proliferation of weap- missions. He proposed to explore the pos- of eight ad litem judges for different periods ons from within and outside the region that sibility of discussing the setting up of a light, of time. The Council also requested the ICTY threaten peace, security, and stability” (S/ flexible framework that would allow the Sec- to produce a consolidated comprehensive PRST/2012/26). retariat, the Council and troop-contributing plan on the completion strategy to the Coun- countries to plan for inter-mission coopera- cil by 15 April 2013, to be considered by the Guinea-Bissau tion on a contingency basis. Haq emphasised Council before 30 June 2013. On 11 December, Council members received the need to establish an institutional frame- a briefing in consultations from Special Rep- work that would allow such inter-mission Liberia resentative and head of UNIOGBIS, Joseph cooperation to succeed. Pakistan, as chair of the 1521 Liberia Sanc- Mutaboba, on the most recent report on tions Committee, briefed Council members the restoration of constitutional order in the

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our December Forecast (con’t)

Iran assists both the Al-Qaida and the Taliban in 2012 (S/PRST/2012/27). The statement On 13 December, the Council held a regu- Sanctions Committees, for 30 months. came as UNMIT prepared to conclude larly scheduled public briefing (S/PV.6888) its mandate in the country on 31 Decem- by the outgoing chair of the 1737 Iran Sanc- Syria ber 2012. As is customary, Timor-Leste will tions Committee, Ambassador Néstor Oso- On 17 December, Council members received formally remain on the Council’s agenda, rio (Colombia). The chair noted that the a briefing in consultations from OCHA head although there will be no further debates in Coordinator of the Panel of Experts, which Valerie Amos on the humanitarian situation the Council or regular reporting. assists the Committee, had briefed the Com- in Syria following her 15 December visit to mittee on its midterm report of 9 Novem- Damascus reporting that Syria was on the Golan Heights ber. He also noted that during two recent edge of irreversible damage. On 19 Decem- On 19 December, the Council adopted Committee meetings some delegations had ber, during the regular monthly briefing on resolution 2084 renewing UNDOF for six expressed concerns about possible non-com- the Middle East, Under-Secretary-General months, requested reporting every 90 days pliance with Council resolutions, which may for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman noted that (previously it had been every six months) and have led to transfers of prohibited material the violence in Syria had escalated danger- strengthened language regarding the secu- from Iran to regional states. On 20 Decem- ously and stressed that if nothing is done “the rity of UN personnel. Prior to the adoption, ber, the Committee added two further com- destruction of Syria will be the likely out- peacekeeping head Hervé Ladsous briefed panies—Yas Air and SAD Import Export come” (S/PV.6894). Council members on 17 December in con- Company—to the sanctions regime, for their sultations on the most recent UNDOF report role in transporting and supplying prohib- LRA/UNOCA (S/2012/897). ited arms from Iran to Syria, in violation of On 18 December, the Council received a Council resolutions. The designation of both briefing (S/PV.6891) from the Special Rep- Afghanistan entities was recommended by the Panel of resentative and head of UNOCA, Abou On 19 December, the Council held a debate Experts in its 2012 final report (S/2012/395). Moussa, on the Secretary-General’s most on Afghanistan (S/PV.6896) following a brief- recent report on UNOCA and Lord’s ing by Special Representative and UNAMA Al-Qaida and Taliban Sanctions Resistance Army (LRA) affected areas head Ján Kubiš on the Secretary-General’s The Council unanimously adopted two res- (S/2012/923). On 19 December, the Coun- latest report (S/2012/907). olutions related to the Taliban (1988) and cil adopted a presidential statement request- Al-Qaida Sanctions (1267/1989) regimes ing Moussa to keep the Council informed Peacebuilding during a meeting on 17 December. In reso- via a single report on UNOCA and the LRA On 20 December, the Council held an open lution 2082, the Council modified the Tali- to be submitted before 15 May 2013 (S/ debate on peacebuilding (S/PV.6897). The ban sanctions regime, allowing for a num- PRST/2012/28). Secretary-General presented his report on ber of exemptions to make it easier for listed the issue (S/2012/746) and Bangladesh, as individuals to travel in order to participate Timor-Leste chair of the PBC, also briefed. A presiden- in meetings in support of peace and recon- On 19 December, the Council adopted a tial statement was adopted emphasising the ciliation. In resolution 2083, the Council presidential statement on Timor-Leste not- importance of inclusivity in national peace- renewed the mandate of the Ombudsperson ing the “remarkable achievements” made building processes (S/PRST/2012/29). • for 30 months. Both resolutions also renewed since independence in 2002 and the success- the mandate of the Monitoring Team, which ful presidential and parliamentary elections

Mali

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments and separatist forces; support the authori- The Council is expected to receive a brief- On 20 December, the Council adopted reso- ties in their primary responsibility to protect ing and hold consultations on the Secretary- lution 2085 under Chapter VII authorising their citizens and create a secure environ- General’s options for voluntary and UN- the deployment of AFISMA for an initial ment for civilian-led delivery of humanitarian funded logistics support packages for an period of one year. The resolution mandates assistance; and help stabilise the country after African-led International Support Mission the mission to take “all necessary measures the military operations. The resolution was in Mali (AFISMA). as appropriate” to carry out the following the culmination of weeks of intense activity AFISMA’s authorisation expires on 20 tasks: help rebuild the national defence and and negotiations among Council members December 2013. security forces; support the national authori- on the issue. ties in recapturing areas in the north of the On 5 December, Jeffrey Feltman, the head country now under the control of terrorists of the Department of Political Affairs, briefed

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 Mali (con’t)

(S/PV.6879) the Council on the Secretary- of Diarra and urged the interim President to voluntarily from bilateral sources. General’s 29 November report on the situa- swiftly reappoint a national unity government On 19 December, a compromise was tion in Mali (S/2012/894). Feltman warned (SC/10851). struck, and the draft resolution was placed that the security situation in northern Mali Partly as a reaction to the political events in blue. While authorising AFISMA with the continued to deteriorate, with foreign jihad- in Bamako, the US—which by law cannot tasks outlined in the original draft, the resolu- ists and terrorist elements arriving to join provide military assistance to a military-led tion set in motion a 60-day cycle for the AU to the armed groups. Feltman stressed that the or -controlled government—proposed signifi- report to the Council on the deployment and priority had to be supporting the national cant changes to the draft resolution. It sug- the activities of the mission, including before authorities in their efforts to restore constitu- gested a two-step authorisation of AFISMA, the commencement of military operations tional order and reach a political settlement with an initial resolution authorising deploy- in the north. It set out several benchmarks to the ongoing crises. Foreign Minister Traoré ment only to train the army and security against which this progress will be measured: Rokiatou Guikine also addressed the Council, forces. a roadmap for the restoration of constitu- pleading for its authorisation of AFISMA to On 13 December, in a letter to the Presi- tional order; the effective training of mili- “ease the suffering” of the north for the past dent of the Council (S/2012/926), the Sec- tary and police units of AFISMA and Mali; nine months and to help save the subregion retary-General set out three options for UN and the operational readiness of AFISMA’s from “an even more serious disaster whose logistical and funding support for AFISMA. forces. It also asked the Secretary-General to repercussions cannot be predicted.” Guikine • Drawing from the experience in Soma- report to the Council on the implementation noted that since Mali gained its independence lia, the first option would be a phased of the resolution every 90 days. Significantly, from France in 1960, it had grappled with an approach, by which logistics support the resolution also requested the Secretary- inchoate separatist rebellion from its Tuareg for the combat operations would come General to “confirm in advance the Coun- minority but that this had always been dealt from voluntary contributions from mem- cil’s satisfaction with the planned offensive with by the authorities “in accordance with ber states or bilateral sources. Once the operation”. their resources and together with the neigh- military objectives had been achieved, Furthermore, a preambular paragraph bouring countries, in particular through dia- the UN would provide logistics support was included in the draft condemning the logue.” He said the current incarnation of for the stabilisation phase from assessed “continued interference” of the military in the rebellion, involving “terrorists, extremists contributions. the work of the transitional government and and other organised criminals, who are most • The second option would provide logis- stressing the “need to work expeditiously” often foreigners” is a threat to international tics support to AFISMA to be deployed toward the restoration of democratic gover- peace and security and requires an interna- in southern Mali for the purpose of sup- nance and constitutional order in Mali. tional response. He added that Mali was not porting the defense and security forces to The Council also expressed in the reso- asking for the international force to fight its help build their capacity to conduct the lution its intention to consider providing a rebellious ethnic minorities. Later that same military operations themselves. Under UN-funded logistics support package for day, France circulated a draft resolution to this option, the UN would provide a com- AFISMA, including equipment and services authorise AFISMA. prehensive logistics support package but for an initial period of one year. It took note On 10 December, as Council experts would not extend the support to troops in of the Secretary-General’s funding options were deliberating the draft, soldiers loyal to areas of active combat. for AFISMA, and requested him, in coordi- the 22 March coup leader, Captain Ama- • The third option would combine the two nation with the AU, ECOWAS and Mali, to dou Sanogo, arrested interim Prime Minis- previous options: supporting the interna- “further develop and refine options within 30 ter Cheick Modibo Diarra, forcing him to tional forces in southern Mali and, once days of the adoption of this resolution” for a resign. The incident was a sharp reminder northern Mali had been reconquered, voluntary and UN-funded logistics support of how volatile the political situation in the support the international forces in the sta- packages, including detailed recommenda- country continues to be despite a negotiated bilisation phase of the operations. tions for “a swift, transparent and effective arrangement by which the military junta that The Secretary-General in effect made implementation” of the options. The draft led the 22 March coup handed over power clear that the UN itself was not in a position, resolution also established a trust fund to to a transitional civilian government and for various technical and practical reasons, to allow member states to provide financial retreated to the barracks. The events of 10 provide a funding package that would bank- support to AFISMA or to the training of the December also showed that despite the sem- roll the logistics and other needs for AFISMA military and security forces of Mali. blance of a transition to civilian rule, Sanogo in carrying out offensive combat opera- The resolution furthermore requested continued to be effectively in control. On 11 tions in northern Mali. Such support, the UN member states and regional and inter- December the Council condemned the arrest Secretary-General suggested, should come national organisations to provide coordinated

UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2085 (20 December 2012) authorised the deployment of AFISMA for an initial period of one year. S/RES/2071 (12 October 2012) requested the Secretary-General to provide military planners to assist ECOWAS and the AU on the plan for an international force in Mali and to submit a written report within 45 days. S/RES/2056 (5 July 2012) expressed the Council’s full support for the joint efforts of ECOWAS, the AU and the transitional authorities in Mali in trying to re-establish constitutionality and territorial integrity. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/9 (4 April 2012) strongly condemned assaults by rebels in northern Mali and the seizure of power in the capital by elements of the armed forces. Security Council Press Statement SC/10851 (11 December 2012) condemned the arrest of the interim Prime Minister and the dismissal of the government of Mali and urged the interim President to swiftly reappoint a national unity government. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6879 (5 December 2012) was a briefing by Feltman on the Secretary-General’s report on Mali. Security Council Letter S/2012/926 (13 December 2012) was from the Secretary-General setting out funding options for AFISMA. Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/894 (29 November 2012) was the Secretary-General’s recommendations for an international force in Mali.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Mali (con’t)

of child soldiers and torture. support to AFISMA, including military train- Mali will be reviewed on 22 January under the Council Dynamics ing, equipment, intelligence, logistical support Universal Periodic Review process of the Human Considerable disagreement emerged after and any necessary assistance in efforts to com- Rights Council. France circulated the initial draft resolution bat terrorist and affiliated extremist groups. authorising AFISMA. Eventually, as negotia- The resolution called on AFISMA to Key Issues tions progressed, the draft got the full support support national and international efforts, The key issue for the Council following the of all European and African Council mem- including those of the International Crimi- authorisation of AFISMA is ensuring proper bers, as well as China (which tends to support nal Court (ICC), to bring to justice perpe- oversight of the process set in motion. the AU position on African issues). However, trators of serious human rights abuses and An immediate related issue is to help the US continued to insist on a two-phase violations of international humanitarian law establish a funding mechanism that would approach, raising doubts about the timing in Mali. It further took note of the intention see the mission through. and capacity of AFISMA to carry out combat to strengthen, at the request of Mali, the UN Its role in ending the constitutional limbo operations in the vast desert terrain of north- presence in Bamako to enable the UN to into which the 22 March coup threw the ern Mali and concerns regarding the contin- provide broad and continued support to the country and preserving the territorial integ- ued influence of the rebellious military over ongoing political and security processes in rity of Mali by helping it end the occupation the transitional government. While the other Mali, including to the deployment and opera- of the north by terrorist and extremist groups 14 members of the Council were open to a tions of AFISMA. are further key issues for the Council. single resolution setting up AFISMA, sev- At the time of the adoption of the resolu- Addressing the massive humanitarian cri- eral were nevertheless of the view that before tion on 20 December, Mali became a stand- sis in the north is a related issue. agreeing to any military action there should alone Council agenda item, previously con- be a serious attempt made at creating a politi- sidered under the general rubric of “Peace Underlying Problems cal process which will allow for negotiations and Security in Africa”. The 10 December forced dismissal of the with groups that are willing to cut off ties with interim Prime Minister by Sanogo loyalists terrorist organisations. A number of mem- Human Rights-Related Developments suggests that the 22 March coup leaders con- bers were also concerned about the signal that In his 5 December briefing to the Council, tinue to wield strong political power. Sanogo would be sent to the AU and ECOWAS if the Feltman stressed that gross human rights has been known to oppose foreign interven- Council was unable to support their request abuses continued to be perpetrated against the tion and has claimed that all that was needed for a military stabilisation force in Mali. • population in northern Mali, including cases of summary and extrajudicial execution, sexual and to recapture the north was better weaponry gender-based violence, the recruitment and use and a bigger defence budget.

UNOWA (West Africa)

Expected Council Action technically fall within the remit of UNOWA (22 March) and Guinea-Bissau (12 April), In January the Council expects a briefing but are now being addressed separately. The armed insurrection and continuing instability from Said Djinnit, the Secretary-General’s most important of these has been Mali. in parts of Côte d’Ivoire, piracy in the Gulf Special Representative and head of the UN Mali and the wider Sahel region to which of Guinea, terrorist threats and attacks in the Office for West Africa (UNOWA), on the Sec- it belongs was one of the situations about region and the increase in illicit drug traffick- retary-General’s semi-annual report, includ- which Djinnit warned the Council on 11 July, ing meant that the security situation pres- ing an update on the Gulf of Guinea piracy saying it could potentially reverse the signifi- ents a new wave of challenges to governance, problem. cant gains made in consolidating peace and peace consolidation and conflict prevention. No Council action is envisaged. promoting democracy in West Africa. Intro- The report covered the period from 1 UNOWA’s mandate expires on 31 ducing the Secretary-General’s report on January to 30 June, providing considerable December 2013. UNOWA (S/2012/510) to Council members, detail on events in Mali and the wider Sahel Djinnit said that the security situation in West since the 22 March coup. It emphasised the Key Recent Developments Africa remains “precarious and reversible as mediation efforts of ECOWAS and the com- The Council has been dealing in recent the root causes of instability are yet to be fully plexity of the situation in the region. Even so, months with various West African issues that addressed.” He noted that the coups in Mali the report noted strong economic growth in

UN DOCUMENTS ON WEST AFRICA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2039 (29 February 2012) requested the Secretary-General to support regional strat- egy to combat Gulf of Guinea piracy. S/RES/2018 (31 October 2011) was a resolution on the threats of piracy and armed robbery on the seas in the Gulf of Guinea. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2012/24 (19 November 2012) was on piracy as a threat to international peace and security. S/PRST/2012/2 (21 February 2012) was on transnational crime in West Africa, including piracy. Secretary General’s Report S/2012/510 (29 June 2012) was the Secretary-General’s report on UNOWA covering the period from 1 January to 30 June 2012. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6879 (5 December 2012) was on Mali. S/PV.6865 (19 November 2012) was on piracy as a threat to international peace and security. S/PV.6804 (11 July 2012) was on UNOWA. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNOWA Said Djinnit (Algeria). UNOWA: Size and Composition of Mission Strength (as of 30 April 2010): 13 international civilians, ten local civilians and four military advisers. UNOWA: Duration Mandate expires on 31 December 2013.

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 UNOWA (West Africa)(con’t) the region, despite the weak global economic asked the Secretary-General to include in rel- that they help to undermine the efforts of environment. It cited the International Mon- evant reports to the Council information on the weaker states of the subregion to ensure etary Fund as saying that the subregion “will ways to advance the international response good governance and respect for human register an average economic growth rate of to piracy. The statement welcomed the ini- rights. more than 7.5 percent in 2012.” The growth, tiatives already taken by states and regional it says, will be due in part to the discovery organisations to enhance maritime safety and Key Issues and increased extraction of natural resources security in the Gulf of Guinea. The key issue for the Council is determin- in such countries as Sierra Leone, Niger and Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea—which is ing the precise role of UNOWA in the fast- Liberia, where growth rates were estimated home to major oil producers Nigeria, Angola, developing situation in Mali. at 35.9, 14 and 8.8 percent, respectively, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Ghana—was A related issue is to fashion a policy to in 2012. In Côte d’Ivoire, the report said, added to the Council’s agenda on 23 August coordinate the various special envoys for the growth was expected to rebound to about 2011. On 29 February 2012, the Council Sahel appointed by the UN, AU and EU 8 percent. These economic trends, however, adopted resolution 2039 calling on the Sec- and, in this context, the role of the head of will continue to be dependent on political retary-General to “support efforts towards UNOWA to ensure effective responses to the stability, the impact of the food security crisis mobilising resources following the creation multifaceted problems of the region. in the region and the global economic situa- of the regional strategy to assist in building tion, the report said. national and regional capacities in close con- Options Since then, Sierra Leone has conducted sultation with states and regional and extra- Options for the Council include: peaceful general elections on 17 November. regional organizations.” • receiving the briefing and awaiting the On 7-8 December, Ghana also conducted Despite these concerns, piracy attacks Secretary-General’s integrated strategy presidential elections which incumbent Presi- in the Gulf of Guinea increased during the on the Sahel; or dent John Dramani Mahama won. (Mahama, year, with 34 incidents recorded between • adopting a presidential statement high- formerly vice-president, took over as presi- January and September 2012 up from thirty lighting key concerns raised in the brief- dent in July following the death of President in 2011. Togo, in fact, reported more attacks ing, most likely regarding the growing John Atta Mills.) However, the transition in 2012 than in the previous five years threats of piracy, organised crime and ter- to civil rule in Guinea-Bissau, brokered by combined, with three vessels hijacked, two rorism in West Africa; and possibly also ECOWAS, remains uncertain although elec- boarded and six attempted attacks, accord- • providing a degree of clarification for the tions are slated for April 2013. ing to reports. Nigeria reported over twenty role of UNOWA in the context of the vari- Djinnit is also likely to update the Coun- attacks in 2012. ous Sahel diplomatic initiatives. cil on piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. On 19 During the open debate on piracy on November, at the initiative of India, the 19 November, Ambassador Kodjo Menan Council Dynamics Council for the first time held an open (Togo) noted that progress in tackling the While there is strong interest in the work of debate on piracy as a threat to interna- problem has been slim “despite the stated UNOWA among Council members, there tional peace and security. After the meet- willingness and determination of the states has been increasing awareness of its limited ing, the Council adopted a presidential and organizations concerned.” Meanwhile, capacity to cover various crises in the region. statement (S/PRST/2012/24) expressing Menan said, the income from such illicit Some Council members appear anxious to its grave concern about the threat posed by activities as the diversion of oil cargoes are see UNOWA be more assertive in coordi- piracy, condemning hostage-taking and vio- used to finance subversive or criminal net- nating the various initiatives on the Sahel, lence against hostages and calling for a con- works that seek to challenge or diminish including those of the various special envoys tinuation of efforts to combat piracy at the states’ authority. Menan referred to such net- for the Sahel. national, regional and international levels. It works as “true mafia organisations”, noting Togo leads on this issue in the Council. •

Côte d’Ivoire

Expected Council Action The outcome may be a presidential or recovering from the events following the In January, the Council expects a briefing press statement. The current mandate of 2010 elections. on the situation in Côte d’Ivoire and on the UNOCI expires on 31 July 2013. The security situation has significantly Secretary-General’s forthcoming report by deteriorated since Koenders last briefed the Albert Gerard Koenders, Special Representa- Key Recent Developments Council on 26 July, with a spate of attacks on tive of the Secretary-General and head of the A number of recent security incidents army and police bases and on border posts UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), and political developments indicate that during August and September, deepening followed by consultations. Côte d’Ivoire remains unstable and is still insecurity and further heightening political

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Côte d’Ivoire (con’t)

crimes to justice could lead to recurrent violence tensions. These attacks included cross-border conduct consultations with stakeholders for in Côte d’Ivoire. He also stressed the urgency violence from both Ghana and Liberia. its validation, which in turn will feed into the of completing investigations into the Nahibly Since these attacks, there have been an broader national reconciliation process. incident. increasing number of reports accusing the The International Criminal Court (ICC) military of illegal detention and mistreatment. confirmed that proceedings against Gbagbo Key Issues Allies of both current President Alassane will start on 19 February 2013. In ICC cus- An overarching issue is the security situation, Ouattara and former President Laurent tody since 30 November 2011, Gbagbo has in particular the recent series of attacks tar- Gbagbo committed atrocities in the after- been charged, as an indirect co-perpetrator, geting national security forces. math of the elections, yet more than 100 with four counts of crimes against humanity A related issue is the impact of such people linked to Gbagbo are reported to have for incidents that occurred in the post-elec- attacks on already existing divisions through- been charged, in contrast to several low-level toral violence between 16 December 2010 out the country, impeding progress in both soldiers who supported Ouattara. and 12 April 2011. On 22 November 2012, political dialogue and national reconciliation. Inaugurated in September 2011, the the ICC unsealed an arrest warrant against Security sector reform—comprising the 11-member Dialogue, Truth and Reconcilia- his wife, Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, for four DDR process—remains a key issue. tion Commission has been facing difficulties counts of crimes against humanity. A broader issue is regional cooperation in establishing its presence in rural areas and During an open debate on the subject of with the governments of neighbouring coun- receiving the necessary political and finan- peacekeeping operations, several Council tries, in addition to inter-mission cooperation cial support it needs for effective operation. members cited the increasing cooperation between UNOCI and UNMIL. No amnesties will be available for those who between UNOCI and the UN Mission in confess to crimes. Liberia (UNMIL) as a positive example of Options Recent events reflect an increasing rift inter-mission cooperation to fill critical gaps. One option for the Council is to issue a presi- between the political parties, particularly UNOCI has also demonstrated its ability dential or press statement that would contain between the Rally of the Republicans— to promote regional cooperation, support- some or all of the following elements: which won an outright majority in the leg- ing the governments of Côte d’Ivoire and • urging the authorities to pursue SSR and islative elections in December 2011—and others in the region—including Ghana and move ahead on the reconciliation process; its main partner in the coalition government, Liberia—in addressing subregional secu- • encouraging UNOCI to play a more the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire. On rity issues along common borders. The 15 active role in supporting the political pro- 14 November 2012, Ouattara dissolved the October report (S/2012/766) of the Group cess, promoting progress in SSR and rec- 36-member cabinet and formed a new gov- of Experts assisting the 1572 Sanctions Com- onciliation; and ernment on 22 November with 28 ministers. mittee also highlighted increasing concerns • highlighting the importance of consid- Meanwhile, the pro-Gbagbo Ivorian Popular of links between the military junta in Mali ering the fragile security situation when Front, which boycotted the December 2011 and pro-Gbagbo groups attempting to seize planning for the scaling down of UNOCI. elections, remains marginalised from the power in Côte d’Ivoire. Another option would be to take no action political process. and instead wait until the expiry of UNOCI’s Challenges remain in moving forward on Human Rights-Related Developments mandate on 31 July. security sector reform (SSR). It is hoped From 24 September to 12 October 2012, Doudou the stalled reform process will be reinvigo- Diène, the independent expert on the situation Council Dynamics rated by the wake-up call provided by the of human rights in Côte d’Ivoire appointed by the There are no serious divisions among Coun- Human Rights Council (HRC), undertook his third recent string of violent attacks and will sub- visit to the country. In addition to meetings with cil members on the issue of Côte d’Ivoire. sequently promote progress in the disar- the government, he visited pro-Gbagbo detain- While Ouattara has enjoyed international mament, demobilisation and reintegration ees to assess their treatment. On 12 October, he credibility and support, some members are (DDR) of former combatants who partici- deplored that no one had yet been arrested for frustrated with the lack of progress and the pated in the conflict. the 20 July deadly attack on the Nahibly camp slow pace of the SSR and reconciliation pro- for internally displaced people in Duékoué. Diène An inter-ministerial working group is next due to report to the HRC in March 2013. cesses under his leadership. completed a national SSR strategy in early The Assistant Secretary-General for Human France is the lead country on Côte August—including DDR elements—which Rights, Ivan Šimonović, visited the country for d’Ivoire. • was endorsed by the National Security six days, warning on 1 December that failure to Council. This working group is expected to quickly bring perpetrators of serious human rights

UN DOCUMENTS ON CÔTE D’IVOIRE Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2062 (26 July 2012) renewed the mandate of UNOCI until 31 July 2013. S/RES/2045 (26 April 2012) renewed the Côte d’Ivoire sanctions regime for 12 months, renewed the mandate of the Group of Experts and rolled over most of the measures in resolution 1980. S/RES/2008 (16 September 2011) extended the mandate of UNMIL until 30 September 2012 and called on UNOCI and UNMIL to coordinate strategies and operations in the Liberia-Côte d’Ivoire border regions. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2012/506 (29 June 2012) was the thirtieth progress report on UNOCI. S/2012/186 (29 March 2012) was a special report on the reduction of UNOCI’s military component. Letters S/2012/772 (16 October 2012) was from the Secretary-General to the Council recommending a deferment in the reduction of UNOCI’s military strength. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6808 (18 July 2012) was Koenders’ last briefing to the Council. Security Council Press Statements SC/10668 (8 June 2012) con- demned the attack by unknown militia fighters which killed seven peacekeepers from Niger and eleven others near the Liberian border. Sanctions Committee Documents S/2012/766 (15 October 2012) was the midterm report of the Group of Experts. S/2012/196 (11 April 2012) was a report of the Group of Experts. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNOCI Albert Gerard Koenders (Netherlands) UNOCI Size and Composition Strength as of 31 October 2012: 415 international civilians, 767 local civilians, 9,398 troops, 189 military observers, 1,428 police and 189 UN volunteers UNOCI Duration 4 April 2004 to present

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 Sudan and South Sudan

Expected Council Action on 10 December that reportedly included the six weeks, the PSC indicated that it would In January, the Council will likely meet twice participation of approximately 600 students “endorse the…proposal as final and binding, to discuss Sudan/South Sudan issues in at Al-Neelain University. The government and…seek the endorsement by the UN Secu- accordance with resolution 2046. At press alleges that the four students drowned. rity Council of the same.” The six-week dead- time, it was unclear whether there would be Sudan and South Sudan, including line for discussions on the proposal expired an outcome from these deliberations. respective Defence Ministers Abdel-Rahim on 5 December without negotiations taking Hussein and John Kong Nyuon, met in place between the parties on the issue.) Key Recent Developments Khartoum in early December. The parties Officials from South Sudan met with Rus- On 6 December, Assistant Secretary-General discussed plans to resume the production of sian officials in Moscow in early December. for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet oil in South Sudan, which reaches the out- “We would like the Russian government to play briefed the Council in consultations on the sit- side world through pipelines in Sudan. How- a positive role in current discussions”, said uation in the disputed Abyei area and on other ever, after weeklong discussions, the parties Luka Biong Deng, a member of the delegation, Sudan/South Sudan issues. Noting that the decided that before the export of oil through as quoted in the Sudan Tribune on 7 Decem- situation in Abyei was generally calm, he said Sudan could recommence, they needed to ber. Russian Africa Envoy Mikhail Margelov that the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei agree first on a plan to withdraw their mili- has reportedly visited Khartoum several times (UNISFA) was creating buffer zones so that tary forces from their mutual border. Unable recently to discuss the situation in Abyei. the nomadic Misseriya would not enter areas to resolve this security measure, the talks The PSC adopted a communiqué on 14 inhabited by the Ngok Dinka and engaging in ended on 10 December. December in which it, inter alia: discussions with leaders from both communi- The two parties reconvened in Addis Ababa • noted its concern that Sudan and South ties to mitigate the potential for violence. (The on 16 December with Thabo Mbeki, the Sudan have not implemented the 27 Sep- Misseriya are generally aligned with Sudan, chair of the AU High Level Implementation tember agreements; while the Ngok Dinka are generally more sup- Panel (AUHIP), mediating. On 18 December, • reiterated acceptance of the 21 Septem- portive of South Sudan.) Mulet also noted Mbeki reported that the parties had taken mea- ber AUHIP proposal to resolve the status that while the parties had not implemented sures to establish border security mechanisms. of Abyei; the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring At press time, it seemed that the parties had • noted that the 5 December deadline for Mechanism (JBVMM) and the Safe Demili- established a technical committee to imple- the parties to negotiate the status of Abyei, tarised Border Zone (SDBZ), UNISFA was ment the JBVMM and the SDBZ; however, using the PSC proposal as the basis for training the monitors that Sudan and South it appeared that activation would occur only negotiations, had expired without negotia- Sudan had provided for the JBVMM in after President Omar-Al Bashir of Sudan and tions taking place; Assossa, Ethiopia. (UNISFA is mandated to President Salva Kiir of South Sudan engaged • referred the matter to its January 2013 provide operational support for the JBVMM.) in direct talks at a meeting, anticipated to take summit meeting in Addis Ababa; Regarding other Sudan/South Sudan place during the AU Summit in Addis Ababa • encouraged the holding of a summit issues, Mulet said that while it was encourag- in January 2013. between the presidents of Sudan and ing that the parties were negotiating, he was Sudan and South Sudan have been South Sudan in “the shortest possible unable to report any developments on the engaged in bilateral meetings with officials time” to resolve pending issues; implementation of the 27 September agree- from other governments to discuss their • reiterated that Sudan and the SPLM-N ments on security, oil wealth-sharing, cross- perspectives on the future of Abyei. On 12 should engage in direct dialogue on political border trade and other issues. With respect December, in a meeting in Khartoum with matters with the facilitation of AUHIP; and to the situation in South Kordofan and Blue Ambassador to Sudan Luo Xiaoguang • requested a final report from AUHIP on Nile states, where the Sudan People’s Libera- (China), Foreign Minister Ali Ahmed Karti the unresolved issues between the par- tion Movement-North (SPLM-N) is fight- reportedly said that Sudan opposes the ties that had been outlined in the 24 April ing the government in Khartoum—Mulet AUHIP proposal of 21 September calling for communiqué and road map of the PSC. said that the situation had not improved. He a referendum to resolve the status of Abyei. It On 18 December, the Council was briefed underscored the need for direct negotiations also seems that Karti indicated in the meet- on Sudan/South Sudan issues by Special between the government and the SPLM-N. ing that Sudan would not accept a decision Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan On 7 December, four Darfuri students imposed on it by an international body. (In Haile Menkerios (via VTC) and Assistant- at Al-Gazira University south of Khartoum its communiqué of 24 October, the AU Peace Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- were found dead in a canal. They had par- and Security Council [PSC] requested that tions Edmond Mulet. Menkerios noted that ticipated in a protest demanding tuition the parties resolve the status of Abyei within there was a good chance that Presidents exemptions that security forces had broken six weeks, using the proposal for a referen- Bashir and Kiir would meet in the near future up. Several days of protests ensued in Khar- dum in Abyei as a basis for discussion. If to discuss outstanding matters. He further toum in response to the deaths, including one the parties did not reach an agreement in noted that it appeared that the parties were

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN AND SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2046 (2 May 2012) was on Sudan-South Sudan relations. Security Council Press Statement SC/10779 (28 September 2012) welcomed the 27 September agreements. Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/877 (26 November 2012) was a report on Sudan/South Sudan relations. USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCES PSC/PR/COMM (CCCXLIX) (14 December 2012) is the communiqué of the PSC that notes concern with the lack of implementation of the 27 September agreements. PSC/MIN/COMM/1 (CCCXXXIX) (24 October 2012) is the communiqué of the PSC responding to the AUHIP report. PSC/PR/2 (CCCXXXIX) (24 October 2012) is the report of the AUHIP. PSC/PR/COMM. (CCCXXIX) (3 August 2012) was a communiqué of the PSC on negotiations between the parties.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Sudan and South Sudan (con’t) making progress in their negotiations on the Abyei, but Sudan rejects this proposal.) and the SDBZ had made some progress. implementation of the JBVMM and SDBZ. It An ongoing important issue for the Coun- One key area of disagreement appears to seems that Mulet spoke about the humanitar- cil is how to address the fighting in South be how to approach the final status of Abyei. ian situation in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. Kordofan and Blue Nile between the Suda- It seems some members would be willing to nese Armed Forces and the SPLM-N and the endorse a PSC decision about a referendum Human Rights-Related Developments related humanitarian crisis in these two states. in Abyei, if the PSC were to follow through During a press briefing in Geneva on 11 December, A related issue for the Council is the on its stated intention in its 24 October com- Rupert Colville, a spokesman for the Office of refugee crisis that has been precipitated by muniqué to ask the Council to do so. How- the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights the violence in South Kordofan and Blue ever, other members appear to believe that (OHCHR), expressed concern about a number of attacks on human rights defenders in recent Nile. (More than 200,000 people from these such an endorsement would be tantamount months in South Sudan and the killing of a jour- regions have crossed the border into South to imposing a decision on the parties. At least nalist, Diing Chan Awol, on 5 December. Colville Sudan and Ethiopia.) one Council member also seems to hold the welcomed South Sudan’s request for a thorough perspective that it is legally untenable for investigation of the murder and urged the govern- Options the Council to endorse a decision made by ment to send a strong signal of its readiness to protect the safety of journalists and human rights Options for the Council include: a regional organisation regarding interna- defenders. The High Commissioner’s office was • holding an informal interactive dialogue tional borders. also deeply concerned about the killing of ten with AUHIP chair Thabo Mbeki to get his There is a widespread sense in the Coun- people in Wau, in Western Bahr al Ghazal State, perspective of the status of negotiations cil about the urgency for hostilities between when the South Sudan army allegedly fired at between Sudan and South Sudan; Sudan and the SPLM-N in South Kordofan protestors on 8-9 December. The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) released a press state- • requesting a briefing from the UN High and Blue Nile states to cease and for the par- ment on 13 December saying that the mission is Commissioner for Refugees on the chal- ties to engage in direct political negotiations. investigating the use of force and other reports of lenges facing refugees who have fled to Although all members are concerned with the violence in order to establish the facts behind the South Sudan and Ethiopia from South humanitarian crisis in these two areas, differ- Wau incident. UNMISS also called on the authori- Kordofan and Blue Nile states; ences of opinion on the conflict nonetheless ties to seek accountability if disproportionate • adopting a statement that reiterates the persist. Some members are highly critical of force was used during demonstrations. need for the parties to continue to engage Khartoum for its heavy-handed military cam- in constructive negotiations and encour- paign and for not allowing humanitarian access Key Issues ages the convening of a meeting between to civilians in these two areas. (Media outlets One key issue is how the Council can facili- Bashir and Kiir; or and non-governmental organisations have tate the implementation of the 27 September • awaiting the PSC’s response to the referred to indiscriminate aerial bombardment, agreements between Sudan and South Sudan. AUHIP’s final report to the PSC, expected looting, rape and other human rights violations A related issue for the Council is what in January 2013, before making any signif- on the part of Sudan.) Other Council mem- approach the Council can take in support- icant decisions. bers appear to be less critical of Khartoum for ing the implementation of the JBVMM and its actions in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, the SDBZ. Council Dynamics noting that Sudan is a sovereign country that Another key issue is how the Council Council members remain concerned at must defend itself from a rebel group that has decides to approach the impasse over the the lack of progress made by the parties in vowed to overthrow the regime. status of Abyei. (South Sudan has expressed implementing the 27 September agreements, The US is the lead country on Sudan/ its willingness to accept the 21 September although at press time it appeared that negoti- South Sudan issues. • AUHIP proposal calling for a referendum in ations on the implementation of the JBVMM

Sudan/Darfur

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments exhibited “fragmentation and indecision”, In January, the Council will consider the On 13 December, ICC Prosecutor Fatou stating that the victims of crimes in Darfur Secretary-General’s quarterly report on Bensouda briefed the Council on her work were still waiting for “decisive, concrete and the AU-UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur in Darfur. She argued that Sudan’s “actions tangible actions” by the Council. Bensouda (UNAMID). At press time, no outcome was on the ground…show an ongoing commit- also indicated that given continuing allega- expected. ment to crimes against civilians as a solu- tions of crimes committed in the region— The mandate of UNAMID expires on 31 tion to the government’s problems in Dar- including attacks on UNAMID peacekeepers July 2013. fur.” She said that while the ICC had carried and civilians and efforts to prevent the deliv- out its mandate in Darfur, the Council had ery of humanitarian assistance—she would

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 Sudan/Darfur (con’t) consider opening new investigations and pro- peacekeepers; sign the DDPD and accede to the related ducing additional arrest warrant applications. • expressed serious concern regarding restric- peace process. Ambassador Daffa-All Elhag Ali Osman tions placed on UNAMID’s movements; A related key issue is whether tensions (Sudan) also addressed the Council and • commended the government and the LJM between the government and the LJM claimed that Bensouda made unsubstantiated for efforts to implement the DDPD while sparked by the 5 December incident outside allegations, falsely accusing Sudan of extensive urging them to overcome their differences; El Fasher can be allayed. gender-based violence and mistaking inter- • welcomed the 21 October agreement Another key and related issue is whether tribal conflict for attacks by militias. He said between Sudan and an offshoot of the Jus- the willingness of a branch of the JEM to that since the implementation of the Doha tice and Equality Movement (JEM), the negotiate with Sudan can generate momen- Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD), the so-called JEM-Military Council, to cease tum for the peace process and encourage the situation in Darfur has improved and is stable hostilities against one another; participation of other rebel groups. and secure in most areas. (The DDPD is a • expressed serious concern with delays in An important issue is the ongoing attacks peace agreement signed by Sudan and the issuing visas to UNAMID personnel on on UNAMID personnel and how security Liberation and Justice Movement [LJM] in the part of the government; and can be improved. A related issue is how Doha in July 2011 focusing on seven areas: • requested quarterly reports from the AU restrictions on UNAMID’s movements human rights; power-sharing; wealth-shar- Commission on the situation in Darfur. inhibit the mission’s effectiveness. ing; justice and reconciliation; compensation On 14 December, UN Secretary-General Another key issue is the upsurge in vio- of refugees and internally displaced persons; Ban Ki-moon wrote a letter to the Council indi- lence in North Darfur in recent months, ceasefire and security arrangements; and cating that he and Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, particularly related to criminal activities and internal dialogue and consultation.) president of the AU Commission, intended to fighting between the SAF and rebel groups. On 5 December, the Sudanese Armed appoint Mohamed Ibn Chambas of Ghana as (According to OCHA, the resulting insecu- Forces (SAF) attacked militants that it sus- the new AU-UN Joint Special Representative rity has limited the activities of humanitarian pected were preparing to launch rockets at El for Darfur and Joint Chief Mediator ad interim. organisations in this region.) Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. Sudan (Chambas previously served as the Secretary- Another key issue is how a lack of fund- said that two combatants from the Sudan Rev- General of the African, Caribbean, and Pacific ing, including the fact that Sudan has not olutionary Front, an umbrella group of rebel Group of States). The appointment was offi- contributed the $200 million it committed to movements vowing to overthrow the gov- cially announced on 20 December. the Darfur Regional Authority, has affected ernment, were killed in the attack. However, According to the World Health Organisa- implementation of the DDPD. Eltigani Seisi, head of the LJM, said that the tion and the Ministry of Health of Sudan, SAF attack had been perpetrated against LJM 788 people contracted yellow fever and 166 Options forces, which were not attacking El Fasher. people died from the disease in Darfur from The Council may choose to consider the report Seisi expressed concern about comments 2 September to 9 December. According to without taking action at the present time. made by Al-Sawarmi Khaled, a spokesman OCHA, 2.2 million vaccinations were per- Another option would be to invite the UN for the SAF, who alleged that if LJM forces formed in Darfur between 21 November and High Commissioner for Human Rights and were in the area, they must have been target- 7 December. the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitar- ing El Fasher. Seisi said that the allegation ian Affairs to brief on the situation in Darfur. “undermines trust and weakens the spirit to Human Rights-Related Developments The Council may also consider adopting implement the Doha Document.” He added During a press briefing in Geneva on 11 December, a resolution that: that the LJM had asked the government to Rupert Colville, a spokesman for the Office of the • expresses concern with the recent escala- cease its false portrayal of the incident and High Commissioner for Human Rights, expressed tion in violence in North Darfur; concern about recent violent clashes between that it had notified UNAMID about it. students and police in Khartoum. Four Darfuri stu- • welcomes the decision of the JEM-Mili- In Addis Ababa, the AU Peace and Secu- dents had been found dead on 7 December after tary Council to participate in peace talks rity Council adopted a communiqué on Dar- they had taken part in a protest about plans to with the government; fur at its 348th meeting on 13 December. repeal a tuition fee exemption for Darfuri students. • imposes sanctions on rebel groups that The communiqué: Colville stressed the need for swift investigations refuse to participate in the peace process; into the circumstances surrounding the murders • expressed grave concern at the worsen- of the students and the importance of bringing • demands that the government strengthen ing security environment in some areas the perpetrators to justice. efforts to investigate alleged atrocities and of Darfur and urgently called on the gov- to combat impunity in Darfur; and ernment and armed groups to end their Key Issues • demands that the government expedite military operations; An ongoing key issue is the fact that the LJM the issuance of pending visas for UNA- • strongly condemned attacks on UNAMID is the only major rebel group in Darfur to MID personnel.

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN/DARFUR Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2063 (31 July 2012) extended UNAMID’s mandate until 31 July 2013. S/RES/1769 (31 July 2007) established UNAMID. S/RES/1593 (31 March 2005) referred the situation in Darfur to the ICC. Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/771 (16 October 2012) was the most recent quarterly report of the Secretary-General on UNAMID. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6887 (13 December 2012) was the latest briefing on the ICC’s work in Sudan. Security Council Letters S/2012/943 (14 December 2012) and S/2012/944 (18 December 2012) was an exchange of letters regarding the appointment of Mohamed Ibn Chambas as the new AU-UN Joint Special Representative and Joint Chief Mediator ad interim. USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCES PSC/PR/COMM.2 (CCCXLVIII) (13 December 2012) was a communiqué of the PSC on Darfur.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Sudan/Darfur (con’t)

Council Dynamics 2013 in Doha, although a precise date has US is playing an active role in engaging with There are ongoing concerns among sev- not been determined.) rebel leaders to try to persuade them to join eral Council members about reports of vio- Several Council members also remain the peace process. lence against civilians in Darfur, including alarmed by the lack of access for humanitar- Some Council members are supportive indiscriminate aerial bombardment, gen- ian workers and UNAMID peacekeepers, as of imposing sanctions on the rebel groups der-based violence, murder and other seri- well as the dangerous environment in which that continue to fight the government. For ous human rights violations. (Allegations of they operate. As was noted in the 13 Decem- example, in the 13 December briefing, Paki- violence against civilians have been made ber Council briefing, 43 UNAMID peace- stan argued that sanctions should be imposed against both government and non-govern- keepers have been killed since the mission on armed groups in Darfur that hinder the ment forces.) became operational in December 2007. peace process and that violate international Some Council members, notably the UK While some members are encouraged that humanitarian and human rights law, while and the US, have expressed disappointment the Interim Military Council of the JEM has India likewise said that the Council “should with the lack of progress in implementing the decided to pursue peace talks with the gov- consider targeted measures” against the rebel DDPD, pointing to the difficult security situ- ernment, several members remain alarmed groups. ation, weak rule of law and the lack of fund- that there are still many rebel movements that The UK is the lead country in the Council ing provided for implementation. (A donor persist in fighting the regime. A recent report on Darfur. • conference on Darfur is planned for early in The Sudan Tribune has indicated that the

Central African Republic

Expected Council Action the Seleka rebel alliance—formed by fac- peace, security and stability in the CAR. It is In January, the Council is likely to be briefed tions of the Convention of Patriots for Justice believed that most senior LRA commanders by Margaret Vogt, the Secretary-General’s and Peace, Union of Democratic Forces for continue to operate out of eastern CAR, as Special Representative and head of the UN Unity and Wa Kodro Salute Patriotic Conven- well as the disputed Kafia Kingi enclave on Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the Cen- tion—stepped up attacks and several towns— the border of Sudan and South Sudan. tral African Republic (BINUCA), on the lat- including the northern city of Ndele—are The Council adopted a presidential state- est Secretary-General’s report on BINUCA believed to be under the control of the rebels. ment on 29 June (S/PRST/2012/18), wel- and most recent developments following the Media reports indicated that, at the request of coming a UN regional strategy (S/2012/481) uprising by the Seleka rebel coalition. The President François Bozizé, 2,000 troops from to address the threat and impact of the LRA briefing may be followed by consultations. Chad went into the CAR on 18 December to on the Democratic Republic of the Congo The current mandate of BINUCA expires help the army fight the rebels. (DRC), South Sudan, Uganda and the CAR. on 31 January 2013. The Council is likely to On 20 December, the Seleka rebel alliance During a Council briefing on 18 December, adopt a resolution extending the mandate announced that the advance of its troops had the head of the UN Office Regional Office for for a year. been unilaterally halted after Chadian author- Central Africa announced plans to organise a ities pledged not to attack rebel positions. In resource mobilisation forum early next year Key Recent Developments the same statement, the alliance said it was with the aim of raising funds for the most A number of security incidents have occurred open to peace talks but would remain in the critical areas of the strategy. over recent weeks in northern Central African territory it has secured. This follows Council LRA-affected countries have been con- Republic (CAR), reflecting increasing dis- members’ call for cessation of hostilities in a tributing troops to a Regional Task Force, the content among rebel groups over the lack of press statement issued following a briefing in military component of the AU-led Regional implementation of the 2008 Libreville Com- consultations by the Department of Political Cooperation Initiative for the Elimination of prehensive Peace Agreement and the 2007 Affairs on 19 December (SC/10867). the LRA, since its launch on 24 March to ful- peace agreement signed with the government. The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) con- fil its authorised strength of 5,000 troops. On On 10 December and over subsequent days, tinues to threaten the process of consolidating 12 September, 360 soldiers from the Forces

UN DOCUMENTS ON CAR Security Council Resolution S/RES/2031 (21 December 2011) extended the mandate of BINUCA until 31 January 2013. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2012/28 (19 December 2012) was on the LRA and requested an implementation plan for the UN Regional Strategy by 28 February 2013. S/PRST/2012/18 (29 June 2012) condemned LRA attacks and welcomed the AU-led Regional Cooperation Initiative for the Elimination of the LRA. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2012/923 (13 December 2012) was on the activities of UNOCA and on LRA-affected areas.S/2012/374 (29 May 2012) was a report on the situation in the CAR and on the activities of BINUCA. S/2012/365 (25 May 2012) was a report on the situation of children and armed conflict in areas affected by the LRA. Letter S/2012/481 (25 June 2012) contained the UN regional strategy to address LRA activities. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6895 (19 December 2012) was a briefing on UNOCA and the LRA.S/PV.6780 (6 June 2012) was a briefing on the CAR and on BINUCA. Security Council Press Statements SC/10867 (19 December 2012) was on the attacks conducted by armed groups over the last few days in the country’s northeast. SC/10665 (6 June 2012) followed Vogt’s briefing to the Council.SC/10335 (21 July 2011) was on efforts to address the LRA issue. USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCES PSC/PR/2.(CCCXLV) (6 December 2012) was an AU report on the CAR. PSC/PR/COMM(CCCXLV) (6 December 2012) was a communique from a meeting of the AU on the CAR. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of BINUCA Margaret Vogt (Nigeria). BINUCA Size and Composition Strength as of 30 September 2012: 64 international civilians, 85 local civilians, two military advisers, two police and five UN volunteers.BINUCA Duration 1 January 2010 to present.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 Central African Republic (con’t)

groups immediately release vulnerable individuals Armées Centrafricaines were deployed to oper- been preparing for its gradual withdrawal such as women and children. ate in the southeast of the country, as part of scheduled to be completed by 31 December a total of 500 soldiers to be deployed from 2013. Concerns remain about the handover Key Issues the CAR. South Sudan and Uganda have process and whether the Forces Armées Cen- The key issue for the Council is its potential also contributed soldiers to the Task Force, trafricaines will have the necessary operational role in addressing the latest challenge to state as will the DRC. capacity and resources to continue MICO- authority arising from the Seleka rebellion in Humanitarian issues remain a concern in PAX’s work upon the conclusion of the dis- the north. the CAR, with displacement a top priority. engagement process. Another key issue is encouraging the Recent progress in the political situa- The Peacebuilding Commission coun- implementation of the UN regional strategy tion in the CAR includes the consensus that try-specific configuration for the CAR last and AU initiative to address the threat posed was reached between the government, the met informally on 21 March, shortly before by the LRA to the region. opposition and civil society in September on Ambassador Jan Grauls (Belgium) resigned An ongoing issue for the Council is the reforming the electoral code and setting up as chair of the configuration on 1 June. Since volatile security situation in CAR, and in this an independent national electoral authority, then, consultations have been underway to context, supporting the DDR process cur- with the bill establishing the latter expected identify a new chair. rently underway. to be submitted for adoption at the next ses- The Secretary-General appointed Kaarina Another security-related issue is MICO- sion of the National Assembly. However, ten- Immonen (Finland) as his Deputy Special PAX’s disengagement process and capacity- sions remain between the government and Representative for the CAR on 11 December. building of the Forces Armées Centrafricaines. members of the opposition with the incum- bent National Convergence Kwa Na Kwa Human Rights-Related Developments Options party considering a constitutional reform to On 10 December, Vogt welcomed the 6 December One option for the Council is to simply receive lift presidential term limits in preparation for meeting that the AU Peace and Security Council the briefing and adopt a resolution renewing the 2016 elections. held on the CAR, taking note of its communiqué BINUCA’s mandate for another year. hinting at sanctions against groups that are hin- There was some progress in reaching agree- dering efforts to restore security and are involved A further option is for the Council to use ment in 2012 on disarmament, demobilisa- in violations of international humanitarian law. the opportunity of the mandate renewal to tion and reintegration (DDR) of armed rebel Two human rights-related documents were also highlight its concerns about the security groups in the CAR. Despite this progress, how- issued during a 5-12 December visit to CAR by situation in the CAR and call on all parties to ever, concerns remain regarding the slow pace Zainab Hawa Bangura, the Special Representative abide by the 2007 and 2008 peace agreements. of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence of implementing DDR. On 17 May, the rebel in Conflict. The first, an agreement signed by People’s Army for the Restoration of Democ- Bangura and the government, included commit- Council Dynamics racy was dissolved with almost 6,500 combat- ments to fight impunity for crimes of sexual vio- Council members are in general agreement ants progressively demobilised and disarmed lence, to protect vulnerable persons from sexual on the issue of the CAR and united in their while the Chadian People’s Front for Recovery violence and to provide greater support to survi- concern for the precarious security situation vors. The second was a joint communiqué of the started repatriating to Chad after their chief, Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration and continuing armed attacks throughout Baba Laddé, surrendered on 3 September. Steering Committee (made up of representatives the country. The recent spike in rebel activity Since January, the Economic Community of the government, armed groups, the UN, and may prompt Council members to follow the of Central African States’ Peace Consolida- other members of the international community) situation in the CAR more closely. tion Mission in the CAR (MICOPAX) has and includes the requirement that political-military France is the lead country on the CAR. •

Burundi

Expected Council Action chair of the Burundi configuration of the Key Recent Developments In January, the Council expects a briefing on Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), Ambas- The Council last discussed Burundi on 5 July, Burundi by the Special Representative of the sador Paul Seger (Switzerland), is also following a briefing by Karin Landgren (Swe- Secretary-General and head of the UN Office expected to brief. The briefing will be fol- den), the outgoing Secretary-General’s Spe- in Burundi (BNUB), Parfait Onanga-Any- lowed by consultations. cial Representative and head of BNUB and anga (Gabon). A Secretary-General’s report No Council action is expected in Janu- by Seger. On 7 June, the Secretary-General with data, assessments and observations to ary but the briefing will likely help members appointed Onanga-Anyanga. guide the mission’s eventual evolution into start preparing for BNUB’s mandate renewal a country team is expected mid-month. The before it expires on 15 February 2013.

UN DOCUMENTS ON BURUNDI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2027 (20 December 2011) renewed BNUB’s mandate until 15 February 2013. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6799 (5 July 2012) was the briefing by Landgren. Secretary-General’s Letter S/2012/310 (10 May 2012) contained the benchmarks for the future evolution of BNUB.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Burundi (con’t)

Developments in the Human Rights-Related Developments Council Dynamics Peacebuilding Commission Burundi’s human rights record will be scrutinised Council members see the current BNUB On 21 November, the PBC’s Working Group on on 24 January under the Universal Periodic Review arrangements as a transition phase. During Lessons Learned discussed the relationship process of the Human Rights Council. Burundi the last mandate renewal in December 2011, submitted its national report on 21 November 2012. between the PBC and the Security Council with some members emphasised the importance particular focus on the transition of UN missions in PBC-agenda countries. Some states stressed Key Issues of taking into account the position of the that the PBC could advise the Council on key A key immediate issue is assessing whether government and the need for benchmarks peacebuilding goals and the level of commitment Burundi has achieved further progress and for BNUB’s eventual withdrawal. Some will to meet these goals during a mission’s downsizing how it should be reflected in BNUB’s mandate. also want to develop further BNUB’s coop- while also contributing to transition planning and A longer-term issue will be whether the eration with the PBC (which seems to have benchmarking. Seger is scheduled to visit Burundi in January country is approaching a stage when the mis- improved in the last few months) on the to assess what role the PBC should play in 2013, sion should transition into a UN country team. grounds that the PBC should be involved in in particular if BNUB is downscaled. A further issue is addressing the the evaluation process. role of the PBC in relation to Burundi The lead country on Burundi is France. • and possible modifications to BNUB.

Libya

Expected Council Action the composition of the Constitutional Com- that Libya is reluctant to move against Islamist In January, the Council will likely be briefed mission are focused on how to select its sixty extremist suspects who belong to militia on the situation in Libya via videoconfer- members. The current proposal draws twenty groups. A decision has not yet been made on ence by Tarek Mitri (Lebanon), Special Rep- members each from three provinces, although whether to try suspects connected with the resentative of the Secretary-General and no agreement has yet been reached on whether attack in Libyan or American courts. head of the UN Support Mission in Libya to elect or appoint members on a regional basis. The more than 7,000 conflict-related (UNSMIL), followed by consultations. Security remains a key issue in Libya. A detainees who are currently being held in The briefing is expected to serve as an number of armed rebel groups continue to Libya remains a difficult issue. When Mitri last opportunity to discuss Libya and UNSMIL in operate throughout the country, as demon- briefed the Council, he urged the government the lead-up to the likely renewal of the mission strated by attacks during the past months to accelerate the screening of detainees as well before its mandate expires on 12 March 2013. around Tripoli and Benghazi and in Bani as to investigate cases of detention mistreat- No Council action is expected in January. Walid, the south and the east. A related issue ment and torture. To date, little progress has is the disarmament, demobilisation and rein- been made in this critical area of judicial reform. Key Recent Developments tegration of armed groups, which continues On 7 December, ICC judges requested As highlighted by Mitri during his last Coun- to pose challenges. information from Libya regarding the status cil briefing on 8 November, there have been While there has been progress in terms of investigations in the case of Saïf al-Islam a number of welcome developments on of long-term defence-sector reform, chal- Qaddafi—an ICC indictee, currently being the political front in Libya over the past six lenges remain in addressing pressing secu- held in Zintan. The ICC has given Libya until months, including the successful elections rity issues. There is a need for the adoption 23 January 2013 to “provide concrete, tan- on 7 July and the handover of the National of interim security measures while the new gible and pertinent evidence…to demonstrate Transitional Council (NTC) to the demo- national defence and police forces are being to this Chamber that proper investigations are cratically elected General National Congress built. This includes the development of an currently ongoing and proper and concrete (GNC). Since then, Ali Zeidan was elected arms control programme to address concerns preparations for the trial are ongoing.” prime minister, and the formation of the new about border security and arms being traf- government was completed on 31 October. ficked from Libya to fuel other crises in the Human Rights-Related Developments The next key milestone for Libya will be region such as those in the Sahel and Syria. A two-day conference on truth-seeking and rec- the drafting of its constitution, which most Three months after the 11 September onciliation in Libya organised by the Fact-Finding agree must be an inclusive process that should attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, US and Reconciliation Commission and the Human Rights Committee of the GNC in partnership with move ahead swiftly. Current discussions on officials investigating the attack have suggested UNSMIL and UNDP was held in Tripoli on 12 and

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2040 (12 March 2012) extended the mandate of UNSMIL and the Panel of Experts assisting the Sanctions Committee by 12 months. S/RES/1970 (26 February 2011) referred the situation in Libya to the ICC and established a Sanctions Committee for the arms embargo, travel ban and assets freeze imposed by the resolution. Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/675 (30 August 2012) was a report of the Secretary-General on UNSMIL. Letters S/2012/700 (11 September 2012) and S/2012/699 (10 September 2012) was an exchange of letters on the appointment of Mitri as the new Special Representative and head of UNSMIL. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6857 (8 November 2012) was a briefing by Special Representative Tareq Mitri. S/PV.6855 (7 November 2012) was the latest briefing by the ICC on its work in Libya. Security Council Press Statements SC/10761 (12 September 2012) condemned the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL Tarek Mitri (Lebanon). UNSMIL Size and Composition Strength as of 30 September 2012: 136 international civilians; 23 local civilians; one police. UNSMIL Duration 16 September 2011 to present.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 Libya (con’t)

13 December. Addressing the conference, Mitri said that seeking truth and reconciliation can what UNSMIL’s supporting technical role and instead waiting until the renewal of restrain revenge and collective punishment ten- will be in relation to the GNC, the Constitu- UNSMIL’s mandate on 12 March, is another dencies but that this should not be perceived as tional Commission and the truth and recon- option. a call for amnesty for past crimes. He stressed ciliation process. that truth and reconciliation alone are not enough Another significant issue is how to respond Council Dynamics and that for them to be mutually reinforcing and effective, justice must be achieved. if the ICC makes a ruling on jurisdiction that Council members are generally in agreement does not please Libya. that the principal elements of UNSMIL’s work Key Issues as outlined in resolution 2040 remain relevant. An overarching issue for the Council contin- Options Regarding the ICC, while Council mem- ues to be the precarious security situation in One option for the Council is to issue a press bers would prefer that Qaddafi as well as a Libya, particularly the continued attacks by or presidential statement that would contain second ICC indictee, Abdullah al-Senussi, armed rebel groups throughout the country, some or all of the following elements: be tried at the ICC, some members have as well as security-sector reform and the dis- • welcoming political progress made; expressed satisfaction about the manner in armament, demobilisation and reintegration • urging Libya to ensure inclusivity, to reach which Libya has respected the requirements of former combatants. agreement on the composition of the of the ICC in their insistence in trying them A related issue connected to border secu- Constitutional Commission and to move domestically. rity is the countering of arms movements in swiftly on the drafting process; Some Council members have generally and out of Libya. This flow of arms has been • urging the government to accelerate the applauded the UN’s efforts during 2011 and linked to crises in the Sahel and Syria. screening of detainees; and 2012, pointing to the useful role UNSMIL Strengthening the justice system to ensure • calling on the government to provide the has played in serving as a coordination point the transfer of detainees to state custody and ICC with sufficient information on the for channelling donors’ goodwill and assis- compliance with international standards is status of investigations in the case against tance. Some members express their hope that another pressing issue. Saïf al-Islam Qaddafi. UNSMIL will continue its work in this regard. A further issue for Council members is Taking no action at this moment The UK is the lead country on Libya. •

Israel/Palestine

Expected Council Action began on 9 November. That evening, the to contribute to improving the living condi- In January, the Council is expected to hold its Council held emergency consultations and a tions in the Gaza Strip, deploring the loss of quarterly open debate on the Middle East fol- private meeting on Gaza during which Under- civilian life and reiterating the importance of lowing a briefing from Special Coordinator for Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey achieving a comprehensive peace. the Middle East Peace Process Robert Serry. Feltman briefed the Council, followed by state- On 27 November, the Council received The discussion will likely focus on the stalled ments from all Council members, Israel and its regular monthly briefing on the Middle peace process, the consequences of hostilities Palestine. In accordance with rule 55 of its East from Serry (S/PV.6871). Noting both between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and the rules of procedure, a communiqué was issued the hostilities in Gaza and the upcoming vote General Assembly resolution upgrading the through the Secretary-General following the in the General Assembly, Serry asserted that status of Palestine at the UN from permanent meeting (S/PV.6863). (In current Council “the status quo is unsustainable and…it is observer to non-member observer state. practice, this format is almost exclusively used all the more vital to identify a way ahead to for meetings with troop contributors.) urgently put the peace process back on track.” Key Recent Developments Council members met in consultations on On 29 November the General Assembly In the most serious escalation of violence Gaza on 19-20 November. On 21 Novem- adopted a resolution (A/RES/67/19) confer- between Israel and Hamas since December ber, following an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire ring on Palestine non-member observer state 2008, Israel launched Operation Pillar of Defence agreement, Council members issued a press status in the UN. Nine Council members in the Gaza Strip on 14 November in response statement (SC/10829) welcoming the cease- voted in favour of the resolution (Azerbai- to intensified rocket attacks from Hamas that fire, calling on the international community jan, China, France, India, Morocco, Pakistan,

UN DOCUMENTS ON ISRAEL/PALESTINE Security Council Resolutions S/RES/1860 (8 January 2009) called for an immediate ceasefire leading to the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the sustained reopening of the crossing points. S/RES/1850 (16 December 2008) supported the Annapolis peace process and its commitment to the irreversibility of bilateral negotiations. S/RES/1515 (19 November 2003) stated the necessity for a two-state solution. Security Council Letters S/2012/899 (3 December 2012) was from Palestine reiterating that settlement activity would be a breach of the 1949 Geneva Conventions and the Rome Statute. S/2012/840 (14 November 2012) was from Egypt requesting a meeting of the Security Council on the violence in Gaza. S/2012/839 (14 November 2012) was from Palestine informing the Council of Israeli military action in Gaza. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6894 (19 December 2012) was the regular monthly briefing on the Middle East by Under-Secretary-General Feltman. S/PV.6871 (27 November 2012) was the regular monthly briefing on the Middle East by Special Coordinator Serry. S/PV.6863 (14 November 2012) was the communiqué following the private meeting of the Security Council on hostilities in Gaza. S/PV.6847 (15 October 2012) was the last quarterly debate on the Middle East. Security Council Press Statement SC/10829 (21 November 2012) welcomed the Egyptian-brokered ceasefire and called on the international community to contribute to improving the living conditions of those intheGaza Strip. General Assembly Documents A/RES/67/19 (29 November 2012) conferred non-member observer state status in the UN on Palestine. Other S/2011/24 (18 February 2011) was the draft resolution on settlements vetoed by the US.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Israel/Palestine (con’t)

Portugal, Russia and South Africa), five without further delay a ministerial meeting Palestinian government that includes it. abstained (Colombia, Germany, Guatemala, of the Quartet to discuss seriously the situa- The renewed hostilities refocused atten- Togo and the UK) and one voted in opposi- tion.” (The Quartet comprises the UN, the tion on the lack of substantial progress in tion (the US). EU, Russia and the US.) South Africa, speak- easing the Israeli blockade of Gaza. At the In response, Israel announced on 30 ing on behalf of the IBSA countries (India, end of November, Hamas and Israel began November that it had accelerated planning Brazil and South Africa), remarked that “the indirect talks in Cairo on the subject of the for the construction of more than 3,000 new Security Council has an essential irreplaceable blockade, under the terms of the Egyptian- housing units in an area east of Jerusalem role to play” in the Middle East peace process, brokered ceasefire of 21 November; however, known as E-1, potentially bisecting the West including calling for a complete halt to settle- those talks have no timetable. Bank and rendering a contiguous Palestin- ment activities, calling for the implementation ian state impossible. On 3 December, several of its own resolutions, and receiving regular Options European nations expressed their displeasure reports from the Quartet on its progress. Council options in January appear extremely over the announcement, while the US urged limited given the lack of progress on the Israel to reconsider these unilateral decisions, Human Rights-Related Developments political track. It is most likely that the open exercise restraint, and viewed the actions as In November, the International Fact-Finding Mission debate will again feature member states reit- counterproductive to resuming direct nego- on Israeli Settlements in the Occupied Palestinian erating their known positions on the Israel/ tiations to achieve a two-state solution. Territory—established by the 22 March resolution of Palestine conflict. the Human Rights Council (HRC) visited Amman— On 2 December, Israel announced that to collect information from a wide range of stake- Should the Council want to take a more it would withhold up to 350 million shekels holders. The mission, which has not been granted active role in the Middle East peace process in (more than $100 million) in tax revenue from access to the Occupied Palestinian Territory and 2013, one option may be to adopt a resolution the Palestinian Authority, ostensibly to repay Israel, will be reporting to the HRC in March. that would do one or more of the following: part of the debt owed to a utility company In response to the escalation of violence • reaffirm past Council decisions that Israeli between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in which for power supplied to the West Bank. On 9 more than 100 civilians died, the Coordination settlements in the occupied territory are ille- December, Arab League foreign ministers Committee of UN human rights special procedures gal and constitute a major obstacle to peace; meeting in Doha pledged to make up the condemned on 23 November all attacks against • call on both parties to create the conditions $100 million shortfall. civilians and called for prompt, impartial and thor- necessary to promote the peace process; On 3 December, in a letter to the Presi- ough investigations into allegations of violations of • outline parameters for renewed negotia- international human rights and humanitarian law. dent of the Council (S/2012/899), Palestine Israel will be examined on 29 January under tions between the parties; or reiterated that the announced settlement the Universal Periodic Review process of the HRC. • call on the Quartet to report back to the activity would be a breach of both the 1949 Council (an unlikely option). Geneva Conventions and the Rome Statute Key Issues The Council’s last substantive outcome of the ICC, asserting that Israel “must be The key issue remains the lack of progress specifically addressing the Middle East peace held accountable for all of the war crimes it in the Israel/Palestine peace process and process was resolution 1850 adopted on 16 is committing against the Palestinian people.” whether or not the Security Council can posi- December 2008. On 19 December, the Council received its tively impact that process. regular monthly briefing on the Middle East The humanitarian and security situations Council Dynamics from Feltman, who noted that recent events in Gaza also remain a concern in light of the The most recent effort to adopt a resolution on “should remind us…how much the momen- renewed hostilities. Israel/Palestine took place on 18 February 2011, tum for the two state solution has slipped.” when a draft resolution (S/2011/24) condemn- Several states made remarks to the press fol- Underlying Problems ing Israeli settlement activity was vetoed by the lowing subsequent consultations. The UK Recent events have largely hardened the posi- US. Major divisions in the Council regarding read a statement on behalf of the EU mem- tions on both sides of the conflict; Israel con- the Middle East peace process remain and bers on the Council (France, Germany, Portu- siders the upgraded status attained by Pales- were evident in the voting record on the Gen- gal and the UK) expressing strong opposition tine at the UN through the General Assembly eral Assembly resolution upgrading the status to the planned expansion of the settlements, in to be a unilateral action that is counter-pro- of Palestine at the UN. With the composition particular in the E-1 area, and reiterating that ductive to the return to direct negotiations, of the Council changing on 1 January, the “responsibility lies…with the Security Coun- while the Palestinian Authority would like to dynamic is expected to shift slightly in favour cil…to provide urgently for a credible frame- see an end to settlement activity as a precon- of the US position. (Of the five exiting mem- work for the resumption of direct talks.” The dition for direct negotiations. bers two abstained on the resolution and three Non-Aligned Movement, in a statement read The lack of any progress on reconcili- voted in favour, while three of the five incoming by India, also called “for the Council to uphold ation between Fatah and Hamas further countries abstained and two voted in favour.) its Charter responsibility…with regard to the impedes the possibility of reaching a solu- Most Council members are of the view Israeli-Palestinian conflict.” Russia likewise tion even if negotiations were to resume. that any progress towards negotiations is expressed concern over the settlement activity, Israel considers Hamas a terrorist organ- unlikely prior to the 22 January parliamen- and argued that it was necessary “to convene isation and so will not negotiate with any tary elections in Israel. •

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 Yemen

Expected Council Action the structure and centralisation of the armed commission, in preparation for the 2014 In January, Council members will likely be forces. The decrees included the disbanding elections. briefed by the Secretary-General’s Special of the Republican Guard led by Brig. Gen. Adviser Jamal Benomar (Morocco) on the Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh—son of former Options situation in Yemen. President Ali Abdullah Saleh—as well as the One option is for the Council to issue a presi- A presidential or press statement is a pos- appointment of a new Chief of Staff of the dential statement, welcoming progress and sible outcome. Central Security Forces replacing Brig. Gen. urging the start of the National Dialogue Yahya Mohammed Abdullah Saleh, a nephew Conference. Key Recent Developments of the former president. Another option to signal support for the On 4 December, Benomar briefed the Coun- The Secretary-General visited Sana’a on transition would be to schedule the previ- cil highlighting the breakthrough agreement 19 November to mark the first anniversary of ously postponed Council visiting mission on the allocation of seats for the forthcoming the Yemen Peace and Transition Agreement. around the same period as the start of the National Dialogue Conference. The confer- Ban highlighted the need for a Yemen-led dia- National Dialogue. This may also be timely ence, which will feed into the drafting of a logue, as part of the path towards an inclusive in light of the next Friends of Yemen meet- new constitution, is expected to start in early transition to democracy. ing anticipated for March. (Saudi Arabia, the 2013 and conclude in the lead up to general Special Representative on Children and UK and Yemen jointly chair the Friends of elections scheduled for February 2014. Armed Conflict Leila Zerrougui also visited Yemen, which also includes key Persian Gulf Challenges to the political process remain. Yemen in late November, leading to a com- countries, the G8 and intergovernmental There is continued mistrust between the mitment by the government to end recruit- organisations.) two principal political blocs that make up ment and use of children by the armed forces. the Government of National Unity. Fur- A Council visiting mission to Yemen origi- Council Dynamics thermore, resentment among southerners nally scheduled for October 2012 was post- Council members are united in their sup- over unmet demands related to unresolved poned to early 2013. port for President Hadi and the transition issues since unification has deepened divi- process and are firm in their emphasis of the sions and prompted further demands of local Key Issues importance of a timely start to the National autonomy. A key issue is the National Dialogue Con- Dialogue. On 19 December, President Abdrabuh ference, including the constitution-drafting The UK is the lead country on Yemen. • Mansour Hadi issued key decrees related to process, as well as the work of the electoral

Cyprus

Expected Council Action resolution of the Cyprus problem have taken assuming the rotating EU presidency on 1 July In January, the Council is expected to renew place. During the consultations, summarised 2012 for six months. The UN had hoped to the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in in the monthly assessment by the President convene a multilateral conference before the Cyprus (UNFICYP) for a further six months of the Council (S/2012/629), Downer con- presidency began, ideally finalising the inter- before its mandate expires on 31 January. firmed via videoconference that no agreement national elements of a settlement. But previ- The Special Representative and head of had been reached between the two parties on ous high-level talks were not productive in UNFICYP, Lisa M. Buttenheim (US), is the way forward in the negotiating process. (In resolving the key domestic issues, such as the expected to brief Council members in con- April 2012, Downer provided a private report election of the executive and property. In his sultations. The Special Adviser to the Secre- to the Secretary-General recommending that statement at the general debate of the General tary-General on Cyprus, Alexander Downer a multilateral conference on Cyprus should Assembly on 25 September, President Deme- (Australia), who assists the parties in their not be called due to insufficient progress in tris Christofias (Cyprus) said that in response negotiations, may possibly brief as well. the negotiations. Downer was later quoted to the assumption of the EU presidency, the Resolution 2058 of 19 July 2012 requested as saying that “the risk of failure and of total Turkish Cypriot leadership had “abandoned the Secretary-General to report by 10 Janu- collapse was way too high, and it would have the negotiations”. (In his comments on 10 ary on developments in Cyprus. been reckless of us to have called a multilat- July, Downer said that the Turkish Cypriots eral conference.”) had expressed the view that there would be no Key Recent Developments Two key factors are cited as having con- guarantee that dialogue would continue while Since Buttenheim and Downer briefed tributed to the lack of high-level progress Cyprus presided over the EU.) Turkish Foreign Council members in consultations on 10 July, towards a political settlement. Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, in his statement few significant developments related to the The first relates to the Republic of Cyprus during the general debate on 28 September,

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2051 (12 June 2012) focused on the second phase of the transition. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6878 (4 December 2012) was Benomar’s briefing on the situation in Yemen.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Cyprus (con’t) said that the round of talks that began in 2008 line in emergency cases.) While there is some emphasise the important economic benefits on the Cyprus problem was “stuck with no end optimism about the work that these technical for all Cypriots that a comprehensive settle- in sight, due to Greek Cypriots’ intransigence committees can do, it seems that there has ment would allow for or specify other mutu- and lack of political will.” (Turkey is the only been little meaningful progress since high- ally beneficial incentives. country that recognises the Turkish Republic level talks stalled in April 2012. of Northern Cyprus and is seen as having close Council Dynamics links with the Turkish Cypriot leadership.) Underlying Problems During the negotiations leading up to The second important factor is that One underlying problem is that the leaders the adoption of resolution 2058, interest- Cyprus is scheduled to hold presidential from the two sides hold the other responsible ing dynamics emerged that resulted in the elections on 17 February and President for the lack of progress in the high-level nego- renewal receiving much attention from Coun- Christofias is not standing for re-election. tiations. Blame is attributed to both sides for cil members. This heightened interest in the The impending change in the Greek Cypri- not being prepared to make the bold conces- text extended to several elected members and ots’ leadership—combined with Cyprus’s sions necessary to break the present impasse. was particularly notable given that UNFIC- EU presidency—has essentially resulted in Another apparent problem, related to YP’s renewals had previously been agreed on the abandonment of prospects for high-level the differing historical perspectives, is a pro- by the P5 with minimal input from other— negotiations before February. In a visit to pensity for looking to the past, including the especially non-EU—members. Much of the Cyprus in November 2012, Downer empha- failed Annan Plan in 2004, as well as the per- debate centred on the inclusion of language sised that while his good-offices team looks ceived relative flexibility of the other’s earlier referencing a review of UNFICYP. While the forward to working with the next Greek leaders, rather than focusing on pragmatic final text welcomed the continuing review Cypriot leader, whoever that is, the presiden- solutions in the present. of all peacekeeping missions to ensure effi- tial election is solely a matter for the Cypriots Finally, any settlement reached between ciency and effectiveness, “including a review and not the international community. the two sides is likely to be voted on by the of UNFICYP when appropriate,” it did not During his November visit, where he met two communities in referenda, as in 2004. specify that a specific review should take place. with both leaders, Downer clarified that his This makes the success of any proposed set- The rationale for the suggestion was to ensure team had kept “notes and records” through- tlement unpredictable. that the mission composition was appropriate, out the electoral process and as the presiden- possibly with an eye towards potential savings. tial elections drew nearer that work would Key Issues However, several members—permanent be consolidated. These comments were in A key issue for the Council is whether it should and elected—took issue with the insertion of reference to suggestions that Downer would be actively encouraging a political settlement such language in the text and argued that a prepare a paper or report that would be pre- of the Cyprus problem in its resolutions or technical review at that juncture was not jus- sented to both leaders after the election cata- whether the talks are ultimately best served by tified. Some states argued that at a sensitive loguing the convergences made in negotia- simply renewing UNFICYP’s mandate. time in the negotiating process, sending such tions in recent years. A related issue, which arose prominently a message would be interpreted as the Coun- With President Christofias not running in July 2012 when the Council last consid- cil saying that the situation on the ground for re-election, there will be added interest in ered UNFICYP, was whether—and how—to had altered or been accepted— something the positions of the three main candidates on refer to a potential review of the long-stand- which the Republic of Cyprus was seemingly the “Cyprus problem.” Stavros Malas is from ing peacekeeping mission. loath to see happen. the incumbent Progressive Party of Working A further important issue that relates to Azerbaijan, which has been sympathetic People, while the candidate leading in the the political messages inferred from Council to the Turkish Cypriot position, asserted that polls is Nicos Anastasiades, leader of Demo- resolutions is whether there should be any the final text did not give sufficient weight cratic Rally, and Giorgos Lillikas is an inde- reference to the lack of tangible progress to a “results-orientated process” and did pendent. Of note, Anastasiades was a sup- since the last resolution. not appropriately reflect a sense of encour- porter of the “Annan Plan” in 2004, which aging the review. It abstained. Pakistan also proposed—ultimately unsuccessfully—the Options abstained, saying that the Council could have establishment of a federated United Cyprus One likely option for the Council in January, done better “from the point of view of both Republic comprising two component states. particularly with the election of the new Greek procedure and substance.” It lamented that Another issue that Downer has focused on Cypriot president soon thereafter, is simply to insufficient time was given for all Council recently is revitalising the technical commit- adopt a resolution rolling over UNFICYP’s members to negotiate the text. tees that were established in 2008 to help find mandate for a further six months. Although there are unlikely to be signifi- solutions to everyday problems that people Another, less likely, option would be cant changes in the Council dynamic, eyes on the island face because of its divisions. for the Council to encourage both sides to will also turn in January to the positions of (One such example was reaching agreement make greater headway towards a durable the five incoming members. to allow ambulances to cross the dividing settlement in 2013. Such a resolution could The UK is the lead on the issue. •

UN DOCUMENTS ON CYPRUS Security Council Resolution S/RES/2058 (19 July 2012) extended UNFICYP’s mandate until 31 January 2013. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6809 (19 July 2012) was a meeting on Cyprus in which resolution 2058 was adopted. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS UNFICYP: Budget Appropriation (1 July 2012 to 30 June 2013): $56.97 million (one-third of which is funded by the government of Cyprus, with $6.5 million from Greece).

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 UNRCCA (Central Asia)

Expected Council Action interdependence of water, energy and agri- region; and maintaining close contact with In January, Miroslav Jenča, the Special Rep- culture in the Aral Sea basin. the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan resentative of the Secretary-General and UNRCCA also co-organised a conference (UNAMA). head of the UN Regional Centre for Preven- with the government of Turkmenistan on 11 tive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), December on “Neutrality and Preventive Key Issues is scheduled to brief Council members in Diplomacy: Bases for Peace and Stability”. A key issue for Council members is whether consultations. A press statement is likely. The conference, which marked UNRCCA’s opportunities may exist to enhance UNRC- fifth anniversary, was attended by high-level CA’s role as a preventive diplomacy tool. Key Recent Developments officials from the region as well as represen- Another issue is the general security situ- Jenča last briefed Council members on the tatives from the UN system, including the ation in the region, including threats posed work of UNRCCA on 7 August. In a press Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, by ethnic conflict, resource management statement issued on 8 August (SC/10739), the Secretary-General’s Special Representa- concerns, terrorism and general instability. Council members welcomed UNRCCA’s tive for Afghanistan and the heads of the UN In particular, disputes over water resources role as a preventive diplomacy mechanism Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) linked to the building of the Rogun dam and expressed their appreciation for its and Office for West Africa (UNOWA). Dis- in Tajikistan seem to be a key concern efforts in responding to regional challenges, cussions focused on lessons learnt, best prac- as Uzbekistan, a downstream neighbour, such as water- and energy-resources manage- tices, prospects and challenges in the field of opposes the dam project. ment and implementation of the UN Global preventive diplomacy. An emerging issue is the potential impact Counter-Terrorism Strategy, and in monitor- for the region of the withdrawal of most of ing developments in the region. They also Background on UNRCCA the international troops from Afghanistan, welcomed UNRCCA’s role in facilitating Based in Ashgabat, UNRCCA was inau- expected in 2014, and UNRCCA’s role in Central Asian states’ assistance in address- gurated on 10 December 2007 as a spe- this context. ing the situation in Afghanistan and encour- cial political mission by the Department of aged further cooperation between the Cen- Political Affairs with the aim of assisting the Options tre, states in the region and relevant regional countries of the region in building their con- One option for Council members is to simply organisations. flict-prevention capacities. UNRCCA’s lat- receive the briefing. In cooperation with the government of est programme of action for 2012 to 2014 Another option for Council members is to Kyrgyzstan, UNRCCA on 18 October organ- focuses on three areas: issue a press statement, as it has done on sev- ised the fourth annual meeting of Central • impact of trans-boundary threats facing eral occasions in the past, reaffirming its sup- Asian deputy ministers of foreign affairs to the region (terrorism, organised crime and port for UNRCCA’s activities in the region. discuss how it could assist the participating drug trafficking); This would also provide an opportunity to countries to more effectively address existing • implications of national developments on acknowledge its five-year anniversary. and emerging threats to stability and secu- regional stability; and rity in the region. The meeting also consid- • management of common natural Council Dynamics ered the potential impact on the region of the resources and environmental degradation. Council members are generally supportive expected withdrawal of international forces UNRCCA’s mandate includes liaising of the work of UNRCCA, particularly in from Afghanistan and possible measures to with the governments of the region and, with light of the Council’s expressed intention to meet this challenge. their concurrence, other parties about issues strengthen its work on preventive diplomacy On 20 November, UNRCCA, in coop- relevant to preventive diplomacy; monitor- and conflict prevention. They seem to find eration with the Food and Agricultural ing the situation on the ground and pro- the semi-annual briefings to be a useful tool Organisation and the International Fund viding the Secretary-General with relevant for facilitating discussion about the situation for Saving the Aral Sea, organised a semi- information; maintaining relationships with in Central Asia as a whole. At this stage they nar in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, entitled regional organisations and encouraging their seem particularly interested in how UNRCCA “Mutually Acceptable Mechanism on Inte- peacemaking efforts and initiatives; provid- can contribute in supporting the region’s grated Use of Water Resources in Central ing a political framework and leadership for engagement in issues concerning Afghanistan. Asia through Applying a Scenario Approach”, the preventive activities of the UN country Russia is the penholder on UNRCCA as part of a project aimed at studying the teams and resident coordinators across the press statements. •

UN DOCUMENTS ON UNRCCA Press Statement SC/10739 (8 August 2012) was the latest statement on UNRCCA. Letters S/2007/280 (15 May 2007) and S/2007/279 (7 May 2007) contained the exchange of letters between the Secretary-General and the Council about the establishment of UNRCCA.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Notable Dates for January Security Council Report Staff Bruno Stagno Executive Director REPORT DUE REPORTS FOR CONSIDERATION IN JANUARY REQUESTING DOCUMENT Joanna Weschler 21 December...... SG report on BINUCA (Central African Republic) ...... S/RES/2031 Deputy Executive Director & Director of Research 31 December...... SG report on UNOWA (West Africa)...... S/2010/661 Amanda Roberts Coordinating Editor & 31 December...... SG report on UNOCI (Côte d’Ivoire)...... S/RES/2062 Senior Research Analyst

10 January ...... SG report on UNFICYP (Cyprus)...... S/RES/2058 Shamala Kandiah Thompson What’s in Blue Editor & 16 January ...... SG report on UNAMID (Darfur)...... S/RES/2063 Senior Research Analyst

18 January ...... SG report on BNUB (Burundi)...... S/RES/2027 Astrid Forberg Ryan Senior Research Analyst & Development Officer

Lansana Gberie MANDATES EXPIRE RELEVANT DOCUMENT Research Analyst 31 January ...... UNFICYP (Cyprus)...... S/RES/2058 Nicole Rencoret 31 January ...... BINUCA (Central African Republic)...... S/RES/2031 Research Analyst Paul Romita Research Analyst

OTHER IMPORTANT DATES Eran Sthoeger Research Analyst Mid-January...... At the initiative of Pakistan, Security Council president in January, the Council is expected to hold open debates on a comprehensive approach to counter-terrorism on the 15th and on a Nicholas Walbridge multi-dimensional approach to peacekeeping on the 21st. Research Analyst

Late-January...... Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and South Sudanese President Salva Kiir expect to meet Robbin VanNewkirk in Addis Ababa during the AU Summit. Publications Coordinator 23 January...... The quarterly Security Council open debate on the Middle East is expected. Dahlia Morched Research Assistant 30 January ...... The Security Council is expected to hold a briefing and consultations on the rule of law. Laura Coquard-Wallace Research Assistant

James Reed Ball III Research Assistant

Maritza Tenerelli Administrative Assistant

Stevenson Swanson Copy Editor (Consultant)

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20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2013