UK £2 Issue 248, Year 5 March 15, 2020 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Lebanon’s Interview The Children Eurobond Israel’s of MENA default post-election scenarios Pages 6-7, 14 Page 15 Page 22 Virus outbreak disrupts region’s way of life, upends politics as usual Nothing illustrated more the disruption of social life in largely conservative societies than restrictions and cancellations of religious services.

Lamine Ghanmi derprivileged) areas students can’t and Samar Kadi afford access to the internet or don’t have the tools to access the internet,” he said. Tunis and Beirut There have been many other layers of social disruption accom- ith coronavirus infec- panying the health crisis. With Stemming the tide. Sanitary workers disinfect the desks and chairs of the Lebanese parliament in tions and fatalities sports and culture events cancelled Beirut amid the spread of coronavirus in the country. (AFP) spiking in North Africa and coffee shops and restaurants W and the Middle East, closed, populations are trying to other cities to press for a “total The pandemic added to frictions ly untenable. Politicians have been the highly contagious outbreak is cope. overhaul” of the regime. between Tehran and Arab Gulf coun- jolted into accepting the possibility disrupting the region’s way of life Nothing illustrated more the dis- In many parts of the region, there tries. Riyadh held Iran “directly of a national unity government to ad- and upending its politics. ruption of social life in largely con- have been worries about the inad- responsible” for the spread of the dress the health emergency. The suspension of international servative societies than restrictions equacy of health infrastructure and COVID-19 virus worldwide and in the In a televised address March 13, travel and maritime shipping, along and cancellations of religious ser- government policies along with kingdom because most of Saudi Ara- Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Net- with the sharp drop of oil prices vices. In many places, authorities questions about transparency and bia’s reported cases were said to have anyahu said it was necessary to form amid stock market turbulence, has called off or limited Friday prayer the accuracy of official outbreak contracted the virus during visits to a government “to save the lives of cast a dark cloud over the region’s gatherings. Saudi Arabia suspend- statistics. In Iran, a lack of trans- Iran. numerous citizens.” His rival Benny economic prospects. ed pilgrimages to Islam’s holiest parency further eroded the public’s The Iranian regime is seeking Gantz said he was “willing to discuss Caught in the middle are expa- sites, an unprecedented measure. trust in the government after the outside help at the same time it has the establishment of a broad, nation- triate populations stranded away Politics has not been spared the announced 611 fatalities and more turned to conspiracy theories to ex- al emergency government.” from home, including 6 million of fallout from the virus pandemic. than 12,000 confirmed cases plain the mounting crisis. Israeli columnist Herb Keinon Maghrebi origin who must adjust to The effects played out in various were suspected to be below In a March 13 message on his offi- noted in the Jerusalem Post that “the abrupt travel restrictions between ways across the region. It seems the actual toll. cial website, Iranian Supreme Leader coronavirus has suddenly altered North Africa and Europe. to have taken the wind out of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Army life here in a way completely unex- With schools closed, many of sails of street protests in Leba- Chief-of-Staff Major-General Mo- pected. Why? Because of a feeling of the region’s young people seem non, Iraq and Algeria, even if hammad Bagheri that “evidence... a total lack of control.” destined to remain in lockdown at many demonstrators wore suggests the likelihood of this being Confirmed cases in the region home for weeks. In the scramble protective masks as a pre- a biological attack.” soared beyond the 10,000 mark. for solutions, online classes are in- caution against disease Iran expert and Arab Weekly con- Besides Iran, the region’s epicentre, creasingly an option for students as they try to sustain tributor Ali Alfoneh said: “Not even Iraq, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Algeria and parents anguished about the their movement. a pandemic causes Khamenei to and Morocco recorded virus-related fate of their children’s education. In Algeria, change his bad old habits.” deaths. Lebanon, where the outbreak despite a request In Israel, where 19 virus in- has been blamed for at least three by Prime Minister fection cases were reported Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly deaths and more than 77 confirmed Abdelaziz Djerad for and more than 32,000 people correspondent in Tunis. infections, is among the region’s protesters to ease pres- quarantined, the post-elec- Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly countries exploring remote teach- sure on the government, tion impasse was increasing- Travel and Society section editor. ing. demonstrations continued Mohammed Alkhereiji, Gulf Albert Chamoun, media adviser on March 13, the 56th suc- Algerian section editor of The Arab Weekly, at Lebanon’s Ministry of Education, cessive Friday of protests. demonstrators in contributed to this report. noted “discrepancies” in access to Protesters took to the streets Algiers, March 13. (AP) online education. “In certain (un- in Algiers and at least 23 P5-6, 8-9, 15-17, 20-21 Viewpoint Saudi-Russia oil showdown jolts global market

by the spread of the coronavirus state oil firms to end constraints western Europe by $8 a barrel, that quickly, it can draw from suddenly veered into an all-out on their crude production. seeking to undercut Russia, which storage to assist in the higher oil price war. The Russian government has places most of its Urals grade in flows. Moscow said it would add Jareer Elass Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest been irked that the expansive US that market. 300,000-500,000 bpd to its pro- producer, and leading independ- shale industry has been a large Expressing its intent to flood oil duction in April. The United Arab ent producer Russia had led an beneficiary of OPEC+ coordination markets, Saudi Aramco declared Emirates, a staunch Saudi ally and price war erupting alliance of some 24 oil-producing to shore up oil prices without hav- it would boost output from 9.7 fellow OPEC member, stated that between two of the countries known as OPEC+ that ing to sacrifice production. million bpd to a record 12.3 million it was elevating its oil output by 1 world’s largest oil- cooperated on collective output US independent shale firms bpd in April and that the Saudi Oil million bpd to more than 4 million producing countries cuts since late 2016 to boost were quick to announce budget Ministry had requested that it raise bpd in April. has contributed to crude prices and stabilise oil cuts and reduced domestic drill- its crude production capacity to 13 Saudi Aramco has initiated price a historic oil market markets. ing as the Saudi-Russian price war million bpd. wars in the past, notably in 1986 meltdownA and put into question At a meeting of OPEC+ ministers exploded. While the kingdom realistically and 1998, but this price battle is a strategic political and economic March 6 in Vienna, Russia refused Riyadh’s response to Moscow’s may not be able to boost output different in that Saudi Aramco partnership between Saudi Arabia to accept a Saudi-led proposal rejection of deeper and extended is no longer accountable to just and Russia. enacting a further 1.5 million bar- cuts was swift. State oil giant Saudi its government. Its recent initial The price war is inflicting pain on rel per day (bpd) reduction from Aramco announced on March 7 its public offering of 1.7% of the com- several casualties — the US shale current levels that would be imple- steepest cuts in 20 years to prices The price war is pany now makes Saudi Aramco industry and shareholders of Saudi mented for the remainder of 2020. for its main crude exports. inflicting pain on beholden to some 5 million retail Aramco stock — and it’s early days. In leaving the Vienna gathering, The Saudi company reduced several casualties — investors, the majority of whom Crude prices suffered their larg- Russian Oil Minister Alexander its April official pricing for its are Saudi. est one-day loss in nearly 30 years Novak bluntly said: “From April 1, Asia-destined crude by $4-$6 a the US shale industry on March 9, plummeting 24% as neither we nor any OPEC or non- barrel and slashed pricing for its and shareholders of Jareer Elass reports from disagreement between Riyadh OPEC country is required to make US customers by $7 a barrel. Saudi Washington on energy issues for and Moscow over how to counter output cuts.” Moscow had been Aramco significantly slashed pric- Saudi Aramco stock The Arab Weekly. slackened demand exacerbated facing growing pressure from its ing for its crude grades to north- — and it’s early days. P11 2 March 15, 2020 Top news

Khartoum Iraq remains in political limbo as Shia investigates factions discuss way out of crisis assassination attempt on Early elections are a key demand of Iraq’s nation-wide protests. prime minister

The Arab Weekly staff

London

udan’s Sovereignty Coun- cil said it would step up efforts to restructure se- S curity services and remove loyalists of the previous regime of President Omar al-Bashir from key positions. A branch of Sudan’s security services closely linked to al-Ba- shir is to be moved under control of the civilian government and a committee assigned to dismantle the former regime will be given additional powers, Sovereign Council spokesman Mohamed al- Faki said. Sudanese Prime Minister Ab- dalla Hamdok’s convoy was at- tacked March 9 but Hamdok was not injured. Sudanese authorities have not said who was behind the bombing. The new measures — an- nounced the day after the attack Heading to impasse? Iraqi Shia cleric and leader of the Hikma Movement Ammar al-Hakim (C) arrives to deliver a speech at Al-Kehlani Square in — however, suggest possible links Baghdad during a gathering of his supporters. (DPA) with al-Bashir regime support- ers. To disempower al-Bashir’s supporters, the “dismantling” The Arab Weekly staff meeting with Iraqi Shia political of Iraq’s nation-wide protests, tation,” Jabiri said. committee moved to disband the leaders was viewed with suspicion along with calls for public services The political back and forth took former ruling party and dismiss by Iraq’s Sunni and Kurdish politi- and anti-corruption reform. place amid escalating tensions be- senior officials at banks and em- London cal factions. “The committee that has been tween the United States and Iran- bassies. “All political factions must bear formed by Shia forces will work to backed militias after a rocket at- Also, some officers at the Na- raq remained in political limbo responsibility for the delay in draw up a shortlist of names from tack on an Iraqi military base killed tional Intelligence and Security after Prime Minister-designate choosing a new prime minister and which a single candidate will be three US coalition members, two Service were dismissed and the Mohammed Allawi withdrew forming a new government,” said chosen to be put forward as a can- Americans and one UK soldier. name of the agency changed to I his candidacy and rival factions MP Sattar al-Jabiri, who represents didate for prime minister before Former PMF Chairman Falih the General Intelligence Service discussed replacements and a way the Hikma Movement led by Am- the end of the specified period,” he Alfayyadh met with other senior (GIS). Faki said the part of the GIS out of the crisis. mar al-Hakim. said. Shia leaders in Iraq, including for- that operates inside Sudan would Iraq’s powerful Shia political fac- Speaking to Iraq’s Al-Sumaria The Iraqi Constitution mandates mer Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki report to the Interior Ministry. tions, which backed Allawi’s can- News, he confirmed that Iraq’s that an agreed name can be put for- and Hakim. Reports indicated they In January, armed security didacy, met regarding the impasse main Shia political factions formed ward but if no name can be agreed reached an agreement to nominate agents linked to al-Bashir fought but also faced criticism for meeting a “national council” to discuss po- on, Iraqi President Barham Salih a candidate Iraq’s Kurds and Sun- soldiers in Khartoum for several with a senior Iranian official over tential nominees to replace Allawi. would designate a prime minister nis would find acceptable. hours after a dispute about sever- the troubling situation. Jabiri said the new prime minister- candidate unilaterally. Allawi had been unable to get ance packages. Iranian Supreme National Secu- designate would be tasked with “There are intensive ongoing Sunni and Kurdish factions on- Sudan’s Security and Defence rity Council Secretary Admiral Ali drawing up a “road map” to early meetings to resolve this issue to side, failing to secure a parliamen- Council requested foreign assis- Shamkhani went to Baghdad fol- elections. overcome the current stage and tary quorum to vote on his pro- tance a few hours after the attack lowing Allawi’s withdrawal and his Early elections are a key demand end the state of [political] fragmen- posed cabinet. on Hamdok, for which there has Local media reported that there been no claim of responsibility, were plans to reinstate Adel Ab- although Sudan said there had dul-Mahdi as a stopgap measure if been several arrests, including US retaliates after attack on Camp a suitable candidate could not be foreigners. found. The United States was sending Abdul-Mahdi, who resigned as a team to bring relevant “exper- prime minister on November 30 un- tise and techniques for this kind Taji escalates fight with Iran proxies der pressure from nationwide anti- of case,” a Sudanese official said. government protests, remained in After al-Bashir’s ouster in April The Arab Weekly staff protect our forces in Iraq and the tute for Near East Policy think-tank, office in a caretaker capacity. On 2019, Hamdok was placed in region,” Esper said. stressed Iran’s involvement in the March 4, he announced he would control of the transitional gov- Esper earlier warned that “all op- militia’s activities. take a “voluntary absence” from ernment last August. He heads a London tions are on the table” to respond “Regrettably, these attacks on our the role but would not be officially council that includes civilian and to the death of the three people in forces will continue as Iran has no resigning, instead handing over military figures tasked with over- he United States carried a barrage of about 18 rockets on the problem fighting to the last of the most of his duties to the head of his seeing Sudan’s transition to civil- out precision air strikes Taji Air Base on March 11. An esti- Shia militias and believe they can office, Abu Jihad al-Hashemi. ian rule over three years, with the against the pro-Iranian Ira- mated 30 107mm Katyusha rockets force us out of Iraq,” he said on Twit- eventual goal of free elections. T qi militia Kata’ib Hezbol- were fired at the base north of Bagh- ter. Local media reported (With news agencies.) lah, which was blamed for a rocket dad and 18 were said to hit the facil- Iran retaliated for the US drone that there were plans attack that killed two US service ity. No one has claimed responsibil- strike that killed Soleimani by fir- members and a British soldier. ity for the attack. ing missiles from its territory at an to reinstate Adel The operation March 12 targeted It was the third time in recent Iraq base hosting US troops, injuring Abdul-Mahdi as a five Kata’ib Hezbollah weapons fa- months the US military lashed out more than 100 US service personnel stopgap measure if a cilities across Iraq, the US Defence against Kata’ib Hezbollah. It killed but causing no fatalities. suitable candidate could Department said in a statement. more than two dozen militants in In the attack on Camp Taji, three not be found. The strikes were “defensive, pro- December in response to an attack coalition personnel were killed and portional and in direct response” on an Iraqi base that killed a US con- 14 others wounded, including US, This was perceived as a stalling to the threat posed by Iran-backed tractor. The US military drone strike British, Polish and other nationals. tactic to prevent Salih from taking Shia militia groups who attack bas- that targeted Soleimani also killed Private-industry contractors were on the duties of prime minister, as es hosting troops that are part of Kata’ib Hezbollah founder Abu Mah- among the wounded. the Iraqi Constitution would have the international coalition fighting di al-Muhandis. The attack on the Taji Air Base was allowed. Despite his announce- Islamic State jihadists,” the state- The rocket attack on Taji took the 22nd on US installations in Iraq ment, Abdul-Mahdi had been vis- ment said. place on what would have been since October. Iran-backed para- ible in recent days, visiting Basra There was no estimate of how Soleimani’s 63rd birthday, suggest- military groups have regularly been governorate and leading a national many people died in the attacks, ing the pro-Iran militants were look- attacking bases in Iraq that host US meeting on COVID-19. which officials said were carried ing for revenge. forces and the area around the US Abu Ali al-Askari, a spokesman out with piloted aircraft, but there US Marine General Frank McKen- Embassy in Baghdad. for the Iran-backed Kata’ib Hez- was no indication of the kind of zie, the top American commander In a sign of concern that tensions bollah, a member of the PMF, in- high-profile targeted killings such for the Middle East, told US senators between the United States and Iran dicated there was a desire among as in January when the United on March 12 that after being deterred could be headed towards open con- some parties to keep Abdul-Mahdi States assassinated Iranian Major- from hostile acts directly aimed at flict, the Democratic-led US House in office. General Qassem Soleimani. the United States, Iranians still seek of Representatives passed legisla- “The best option is to keep Ab- US Defence Secretary Mark Es- to “operate through their proxies in- tion to limit US President Donald dul-Mahdi in the prime minister’s Security minefield. Sudanese per, in a statement, cautioned that directly against us. That is a far more Trump’s ability to wage war against office,” he posted on Twitter after policemen stand around a the United States was prepared difficult area to deter.” Iran. Allawi’s withdrawal. “The only ob- vehicle that was part of Prime to respond again, if needed. “We Dennis Ross, a former US ambas- stacle against him is the religious Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s will take any action necessary to sador now at the Washington Insti- (With new agencies.) authority view that led to his resig- motorcade in Khartoum, nation. This can be changed now.” March 9. (DPA) March 15, 2020 3 Top news Babacan, former Erdogan aide, pitches new party as way out of Turkey’s ‘politics of fear’

Thomas Seibert Babacan’s party is trying to at- tract female and young voters. Its by-laws say that at least 35% of par- omestic pressure on Turk- ty posts must be filled with women ish President Recep Tayyip and 20% with young officials. Erdogan increased with Polls suggest support for the AKP D the presentation of a new has slumped despite efforts by the centre-right party led by a former government to portray military deputy prime minister who accused deployments in Syria and Libya as the government of conducting “pol- parts of a fight for Turkey’s national itics of fear.” interests. Erdogan has teamed with Ali Babacan, 52, a former Erdogan the right-wing Nationalist Move- aide who left the government in ment Party (MHP) to secure the 2015, said in a speech in Ankara that AKP’s grip on parliament but some his new Party for Democracy and polls indicate the AKP/MHP alli- Progress would fight for more free- ance, if elections were now, could dom of expression, a better educa- drop below the 50% mark needed tion system and an end to Erdogan’s for a parliamentary majority. The presidential system of government. next regular elections are scheduled “Deva,” the Turkish abbreviation of for 2023. the party name, is also the Turkish Selcuki compared the situation word for “remedy.” of disgruntled AKP voters with dust “We are the remedy,” Babacan rising from a cushion that has been said. shaken. “This dust is now floating in the air,” he said. “If the right wind Former Deputy Prime comes, it can carry the dust to a new Minister Ali Babacan destination but, if that doesn’t hap- pen, the dust will settle back on the “We are the remedy.” cushion again.” “Our polling in December 2019 Critics say Erdogan has steadily showed that Babacan’s and Davu- eroded civil rights during his 17-year toglu’s parties have a combined po- rule and worry about the sweeping tential of 17.2%,” Selcuki said, add- powers given to the presidency af- ing that the “definition of success” ter a constitutional reform. in Turkish politics had changed. Babacan is the second former “You don’t need 34% of the vote member of Erdogan’s ruling Jus- that the AKP received in 2002” and tice and Development Party (AKP) that propelled the party to power, to create a new political group to he said. “Today, it matters if you Offering ‘cure.’ Ali Babacan attends the funeral in Ankara of a Turkish soldier killed in Syria, March 1. (AP) challenge his former boss. Last year, even get 4 percentage points from former Prime Minister Ahmet Davu- the AKP because that equals an 8 toglu founded the conservative Fu- [point] swing away from the gov- The new party’s programme in- el and Egypt from exploiting natu- However, Asli Aydintasbas, a ture Party. Both Babacan and Davu- ernment bloc and towards the op- cludes pledges to fight corruption ral gas fields, the party programme senior fellow with the European toglu have won over AKP dissidents position.” A swing like that would and strengthen freedom of expres- says that the region should not be Council on Foreign Relations, said and hope to attract disgruntled deprive Erdogan of a majority in sion and other basic rights as well “an area for differences and con- the creation of Babacan’s party was Erdogan voters frustrated with the parliament. as the rule of law and the economy. flict but of cooperation and stabil- significant all the same. president’s increasingly autocratic Under the presidential system, The programme also promises to i t y.” “Babacan’s new party is going style, Turkey’s difficult economic parliament has lost some of its shoot for full membership in the The jury is out on how many to pose a real challenge to AKP,” situation and reports of government rights but an assembly dominated European Union and takes aim at voters Babacan’s and Davutoglu’s Aydintasbas said via e-mail. “It corruption. by Erdogan’s foes could make life Erdogan’s combative foreign policy. parties will attract. A survey by is not going to sweep up the con- Can Selcuki, general manager of difficult for the president by reject- The Deva party calls for coop- the MetroPoll polling firm in Janu- servative vote in Turkey but could polling firm Istanbul Economic Re- ing legislation and by launching in- eration with Syria against “ter- ary stated that Davutoglu’s Future gain 5-6% and together with Da- search, said Babacan and Davutoglu vestigations. It could even call for rorist threats” and underlines Party stood at 1.2% support and vutoglu’s new party up to 10% in a could benefit from a new situation early elections. that a “constructive and realistic Babacan’s formation, which had coalition arrangement.” in Turkish politics as a drop in the “We all are tired of the politics dialogue with all sides” was best- not been founded at the time of the “Currently, AKP’s vote hovers AKP’s popularity meant that the of fear, of polemics and confronta- suited to secure a political solution poll, at 0.8%. Both politicians faced around 30-something percent and dominance by Erdogan’s party over tion,” Babacan said in his speech at to the crisis serving Turkey’s inter- accusations that they defended the challenge from Babacan is very the political right had ended. a meeting of Deva party members ests. and implemented policies under real,” she said. “For the first time in 18 years, and supporters in Ankara, “but now Referring to tensions in the East- Erdogan that have led to prob- there is room for a new political par- we have arrived. It is time to take re- ern Mediterranean, where Erdogan lems that Turkey is grappling with Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly ty,” Selcuki said by phone. sponsibility for Turkey.” wants to stop Greece, Cyprus, Isra- today. correspondent. Algerian president cancels visit to Tunisia amid epidemic worries

The Arab Weekly staff infected with the virus. to shortening prayers at mosques Algeria recorded 37 confirmed to dramatically suspending or infections, including an expatriate curtailing passenger traffic in the Tunis woman in Constantine. region and main trade partners “All the cases of infection are France and Italy. lgerian President Abdel- imported,” said Lyes Rahal, man- The office of Tunisian President madjid Tebboune post- aging director of the Algerian Na- Kais Saied said in a statement he poned a scheduled visit tional Institute of Public Health. received a call from Tebboune to A to Tunisia because of the In Tunisia, 16 people were con- inform him he was cancelling a coronavirus pandemic as Maghreb firmed to have contracted the scheduled visit to Tunis that was authorities stepped up measures virus, including two expatriates to begin March 16. to contain the disease. who returned from France, but Tunisia imposed a mandatory Health officials said the infec- no coronavirus-related deaths, 14-day quarantine period on all tion was spreading mainly from said Nissaf Ben Alaya, head of the arrivals to stop the spread of coro- travellers from Europe but had National Observatory of New and navirus, said Chokri Hamouda, a not reached the stage of local Emerging Diseases. senior Health Ministry official. transmission. The measure was expected to The Maghreb is thought to be severely affect the tourism sector, the most vulnerable region in Health officials said the which accounts for 8% of Tuni- Africa to the virus because of its infection was spreading sia’s GDP and its prime source of proximity and deep trade and cul- mainly from travellers foreign currency. tural links with Europe and the from Europe but had not When Moroccan authorities Middle East, where more than 6 reached the stage of local halted maritime links with Spain, million Maghrebi expatriates live. transmission. passengers, many of them expa- The Maghreb reported more than triates, worried about how they 40 cases and five deaths from cor- Authorities in Algiers, Rabat would return to their children at onavirus as of March 14. and Tunis expanded protection schools and their jobs. Few options. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune in Morocco announced two coro- measures to prevent the virus State airline Air Algerie said it Riyadh, February 27. (SPA) navirus-related deaths. A French from spreading. was cutting off flights to France tourist was among three cases of The measures ranged from mov- and suspending all flights to confirmed infections in Morocco. ing forward spring vacations for Spain. from taking to the streets in cit- mand an overhaul of the military- Algeria’s Health Ministry an- approximately 15 million school- In Algeria, the coronavirus ies across the country where they dominated regime for the 56th nounced the death of three people children and university students threat did not stop protesters pressed on with a campaign to de- consecutive Friday. 4 March 15, 2020 Top news Algerian government Yemeni factions calls for less street urged by Saudis to pressures to cope with implement Riyadh Agreement ‘multidimensional crisis’ The Arab Weekly staff inclusion of the STC would “beef up the country’s anti-terrorism ef- forts.” Lamine Ghanmi London The government is honouring “in earnest” its commitments in the s fierce fighting in Yemen peace deal “for the higher interest Tunis between the forces sup- of the homeland,” the source said. ported by the internation- The Riyadh Agreement called lgeria is facing an “unprec- A ally recognised govern- for the formation of a new govern- edented, multidimension- ment and the Iran-allied Houthi ment within 30 days of its signing. al crisis” but its govern- rebels continued, issues between The government would include 24 A ment said it will tap into the Southern Transitional Coun- ministers — 12 from the south and financial reserves to avoid auster- cil and the government of Yemeni 12 from the north. The agreement ity measures that could expose the President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi also called for tens of thousands of population to hardship and disrupt once again rose. fighters loyal to the STC to be placed the economy. Even though the UAE-backed under the command of Yemen’s In- “The president has instructed the Southern Transitional Council terior and Defence ministries. trade minister to observe an intelli- (STC) and the Saudi-supported For decades, many southern gent management of imports with- Hadi government fight on the same Yemenis have said they felt exploit- out depriving the citizens and the side in the almost 5-year-old war, ed by leaders in the north, includ- economy of anything,” said the of- sporadic battles between the two ing former President Ali Abdullah fice of President Abdelmadjid Teb- erupt, with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi Saleh and his associates. Anti-Saleh boune after a March 10 ministerial usually stepping in to ease ten- sentiment led to the formation of meeting addressing repercussions Tough times. A man walks past Algiers Stock Exchange. (Reuters) sions. the Southern Mobility Movement of oil price decline and the corona- In November, STC separatists in 2007, which has the re-establish- virus outbreak. government bonds and other se- praised the protests but also pres- seized control of the Yemeni gov- ment of South Yemen as an inde- Analysts said the oil price slump curities from the market to expand sured demonstrators by policing ernment’s temporary capital in pendent state as its main goal. will slash Algeria’s earnings from the money supply and energise the gatherings and arresting lead- Aden, which led to further fighting. oil and gas exports by one-third this lending and investment. ing opposition figures. That issue was supposedly re- year if larger oil exporters pursue “The state has sufficient resources In addition to protests each Fri- solved after the two sides signed Recently and for the first an “output war.” for the years 2020 and 2021 to avoid day, there have been smaller dem- the Riyadh Agreement in Novem- time, a pro-government Algeria’s oil output has declined shortages of inputs for the economy onstrations demanding better liv- ber. However, the agreement is yet Saudi newspaper published since 2008, limiting export rev- and necessities for the population,” ing standards and public services. to be implemented and hostilities an editorial suggesting that enue. the president’s office said. “Given the seriousness of the and accusations between the two Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Algeria’s foreign currency re- current economic and social situa- sides persist and it appears Saudi Mansour Hadi should go. Algeria’s foreign currency serves stand at around $60 billion, tion, all parties are expected to be Arabia is losing patience. the equivalent of two years of re- mobilised to get out of this multidi- The Saudi Foreign Ministry, on STC President Aidarus al-Zoubai- reserves stand at around duced imports. The value of im- mensional crisis,” Djerad said. March 11, urged Yemen’s govern- di and Hadi have a history of bad $60 billion, the equivalent ports was $41 billion last year, when Elected in December in a vote ment and the STC to implement blood between them, stemming of two years of reduced the value of total exports stood at largely rejected by demonstrators, the Riyadh Agreement and put the from May 2017 when Hadi sacked imports. around $35 billion. Tebboune has repeatedly vowed country’s national interests first. Zoubaidi as Aden governor. Zoubai- Algerian Prime Minister Abdelaziz to meet protesters’ demands by Saudi Arabia is dedicated to “the di then joined the southern separa- Analysts said the government Djerad urged citizens to demand changing the constitution and es- security and stability of brotherly tists, which eventually rebranded will use foreign currency reserves less from the government because tablishing a “new republic.” He Yemen and its endeavour to imple- themselves as the STC movement. to offset falling earnings from oil the country faced an “unprecedent- pledged to improve living stand- ment the (Riyadh Agreement) to The Hadi government asked UAE and gas sales abroad, gambling that ed multidimensional crisis.” ards, build schools and construct achieve its goals and objectives,” officials to stop arming and train- the crisis not last longer. “It would be wiser to reduce the better transport infrastructure the statement said, stressing that a ing the separatists. Emirati officials, Tebboune’s office said the presi- tendency to make demands and around the country. stable Yemen where people enjoy a however, said the Hadi government dent rejected the idea of resorting the overblown occupation of public The government approved a decent living and “all forms of ter- is ineffective and that its ties to Is- to “foreign borrowing and uncon- roads, which would only aggravate 9.2% cut in public spending for rorism are fought” was achievable. lamists in Yemen continue to be a ventional monetary policy.” That the current situation more,” Djerad this year compared with 2019 but “Based on this, the kingdom is worrying factor. policy, known as quantitative eas- told the official news agency APS kept its subsidy policy unchanged working to establish various devel- Recently, for the first time, a pro- ing, was used by former Prime after the ministerial meeting. to avoid social unrest. Algeria has opment projects and complete oth- government Saudi newspaper pub- Minister Ahmed Ouyahia in 2017 to His remarks were apparently the biggest subsidy scheme in the ers that are under construction in lished an article suggesting that tackle a financial crisis. aimed at mass protests demand- Maghreb, covering sectors from all provinces, as part of its ceaseless Hadi should go. An opinion article Quantitative easing is a method ing an overhaul of the government. education to health care to fuel and support and care for the brotherly in the Okaz daily by Saudi writer through which a central bank buys Algerian authorities have publicly housing. people of Yemen,” the statement Hammoud Taleb suggested that the said. situation in Yemen might improve if “The kingdom invites the two Hadi and his government were re- parties to the Riyadh Agreement to placed, saying elements in the Hadi Leading Mauritanian businessman work together to implement it and government were “colluding” with to put the higher national interest the coalition’s enemies. Taleb did first,” it added. not clarify whether it was the Hou- The Yemeni government wel- this or the Muslim Brotherhood’s returns home after 10 years of exile comed the Saudi statement. Islah Movement that he meant by The agreement paves the way “enemies.” Lamine Ghanmi of law, multiparty democracy and Bouamatou said he harboured for Yemen to “complete its victory Observers said Riyadh was gaug- ethnic and cultural diversity. no hatred towards former Ould in its existential and crucial battle” ing public opinion and perhaps “Thank you to the president Abdel Aziz aides, adding that he against the Houthis, a government sending a message to Hadi with the Tunis of the republic for the display of hoped that “no one of our citizens source told the government-run publication of the anti-Hadi edito- courage in the face of pessimism, will ever be thrown again in the Saba news agency, adding that the rial. ohamed Ould Bouama- cynicism and conspiracies,” Boua- prison of horrible exile just for be- tou, one of the coun- matou said when he arrived in ing different and thinking in a dif- try’s wealthiest busi- Mauritania March 10. ferent manner.” M nessmen, returned to Bouamatou has financial inter- Ould Abdel Aziz was accused Mauritania after 10 years of exile ests in media, telecommunica- by opponents of anti-democratic following a reconciliation initia- tions and banking. He fell out with practices, mismanagement and tive by Mauritanian President Mo- Ould Abdel Aziz in 2010 and lived corruption but some analysts hamed Ould Ghazouani towards in exile in Morocco and Belgium. credited him with fostering de- his predecessor’s opponents. He was convicted on charges of mocracy and progress in economic Ould Ghazouani was elected tax evasion and other business- development and security. president last June, ushering a related offences and sentenced to At the end of his rule, Mauritania rare peaceful power transition in prison. was free of jihadists and Islamist a country often plagued by mili- Bouamatou returned after the extremism while its neighbours in tary coups. He has approached judiciary cancelled his prison sen- the Sahel suffered from jihadism- opposition parties and figures to tences and cleared him of other related instability and violence strengthen Mauritania’s politi- pending charges. that forced the government in Mali cal stability as he focused on the “Thanks to the courage and to be the first country to seek dia- economic and social development openness of the president we are logue with the jihadists. of the poorest of the Maghreb winning back the respect of our “What I witnessed in the perfor- countries. Arab and African brothers as well mance of the new regime under Ould Ghazouani, an army gen- as our dignity and respect on the Ould Ghazouani suggests that he eral who was the military chief world stage as people and nation,” strives to end injustices against and Mauritanian defence minister, Bouamatou said. political opponents, business- Sources of worry. A file photo shows Abu Dhabi Crown Prince surprised many by reaching out Bouamatou praised the Mauri- people and exiled opponents,” Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (C-L), Saudi Crown Prince to opponents of former President tanian judges for “their courage” said opposition parliament mem- Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz (C) and Yemeni President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz to as- in ending “injustice and repres- ber Mohamed Ghoulam el Hadj Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi at the signing of the Riyadh Agreement, sert his commitment to the rule sion.” Cheikh. last November. (SPA) March 15, 2020 5 Top news With coronavirus spreading, refugee crisis compounds Europe’s deep anxieties

Mahmud el-Shafey an at the Moria refugee camp on Lesbos was diagnosed with COV- ID-19 on March 9 are likely to in- London crease tensions over the flare-up between Turkey and the European s Europe struggles to ad- Union. Tens of thousands of asylum dress a growing refugee seekers are believed to have rushed crisis on its borders with to Turkey’s borders with Europe af- A Turkey, the number of con- ter Turkish President Recep Tayyip firmed cases of coronavirus contin- Erdogan announced that Ankara ues to rise, with countries imposing would open its border with Greece. increasingly stringent measures to Greece deployed riot police, ar- halt the spread. moured vehicles and 1,000 soldiers, After a case of COVID-19 was con- who fired tear gas and bullets, for- firmed at an overcrowded refugee cibly turning asylum seekers back. camp on the Greek island of Lesbos, While attempts to cross the land fears were high that the virus could border between Greece and Turkey spread quickly through vulnerable failed, indications are that attempts migrant communities. by sea were more successful. Greece confirmed that an esti- mated 1,700 migrants landed on While the European Lesbos and four other Aegean is- Union agreed to increase lands from Turkey in recent days, funds into researching many of them ending up in the Mo- the virus and produce ria camp. It was not clear when the more medical supplies, it woman diagnosed with COVID-19 is not clear how much of arrived at Moria. Athens said she this would reach asylum had been put into quarantine and seekers. that she had recently travelled to High risks. Migrants stand next to a fence installed by Turkish authorities near the Turkish-Greek Israel and Egypt. border in Pazarkule, March 4. (AP) “No country can tackle this [COV- Greece expressed concern that ID-19] alone and no part of our soci- the virus could spread quickly eties can be disregarded if we are to through the overcrowded camp, camp, including warehouses storing to increase funds into researching these people back to wet tents in an effectively rise to this global chal- which was built to house 3,000 food and a school run by volunteers, the virus and produce more medi- overcrowded camp. I am worried lenge,” said UN High Commissioner people but is holding an estimated were set on fire and destroyed. cal supplies, such as testing kits, about a pandemic breaking out. for Refugees Filippo Grandi. 20,000 asylum seekers. Common As for the spread of COVID-19, masks and respiratory machines They don’t have hot water, they In an opinion article for Britain’s medical advice to deal with COV- even as the European Union moved inside the European Union, it is not have to wait three hours in the cold Telegraph newspaper, Grandi said ID-19, such as social distancing and towards greater coordination and clear how much of this would reach for food, they aren’t getting enough that, as cases of COVID-19 increase self-isolation, is simply not possible cooperation, controlling the spread asylum seekers. vitamins,” she told the Guardian. and fears rise, refugees could find at Moria. of COVID-19 at overcrowded and Speaking to Britain’s Guardian “If you read about Spanish flu it themselves increasingly targeted. The situation at Moria should underfunded refugee camps could newspaper in February, before the was exactly like this that it began “If left unchecked, the urge to serve as a warning for how the Eu- be impossible. global scale of the COVID-19 was to spread, in overcrowded facilities blame and exclude may soon ex- ropean Union deals with both its “We cannot address, prevent or known, Dr Hana Pospisilova, a car- where people had a viral infection tend to other groups — minorities, refugee crisis and coronavirus. The delay this epidemic without coor- diologist who volunteers at Moria, that became a bacterial infection the marginalised or anyone labelled situation at Moria appears to have dinating at a European level,” Eu- warned of the potential of a pan- that killed them,” she said to the ‘foreigner.’ People on the move, in- deteriorated, with reports of doc- ropean Parliament Vice-President demic. newspaper. cluding refugees, may be particu- tors and journalists being attacked Dita Charanzova said after an emer- “I saw many people with respira- larly targeted.” by vigilantes. Some NGOs halted gency meeting of MEPs March 10. tory problems and even though it’s Mahmud el-Shafey is The Arab Reports that a 40-year-old wom- works in the area and parts of the While the European Union agreed cold, it’s winter, we are sending Weekly East-West section editor. Virus outbreak in Israel sparks Syria war enters 10th year with international calls for unity government showdown causing huge toll The Arab Weekly staff Agence France-Presse gion of Daraa and other Syrian cit- ies. Armed opposition started to London wrest key areas from government Beirut control. Al-Qaeda and ISIS-affili- he coronavirus pandemic ated jihadist groups also emerged led to the quarantine of s it enters its 10th year, the and swept across large parts of the thousands of people in Is- war in Syria is anything but country. T rael and interrupted the abating as foreign powers As the situation unravelled, for- country’s airline connections but A scrap over a ravaged coun- eign armies entered the arena, could rescue the Jewish state from try where human suffering keeps eventually leading Damascus, with its political crisis. reaching new levels. the support of Russia and Iran, to In a live television address March When protesters in March 2011 regain the upper hand. It now con- 13, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin demanded their rights and regime trols 70% of the country. Netanyahu said it was necessary change, they likely never imagined Alarmed by ISIS, Washington in- to form a government “to save the it would trigger a reaction that has tervened in 2014 with air strikes on lives of numerous citizens.” led to the 21st century’s biggest war. Syrian soil as the head of a global “I call for the formation of an Nine years on, Syrian President coalition against the jihadists. A emergency government for a lim- Bashar Assad remains in power, year later, Moscow waded in on As- ited time, from this evening,” he more than 380,000 people have sad’s side, a move that would turn said. died, dozens of towns and cities the tide of Syria’s war. Netanyahu’s electoral rival Ben- have been razed and half of the Iran, with its Islamic Revolution- ny Gantz, who heads the centrist country’s population displaced. ary Guard Corps and allied Shia mi- Blue and White alliance, seemed Tough test. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu delivers Nearly a year after the Islamic litias from Lebanon, Iraq and other amenable to the prime minister’s a statement regarding pre-emptive measures taken against the State (ISIS) “caliphate” was disman- countries, took an active role in suggestion. “In light of the situa- coronavirus outbreak, March 11. (DPA) tled, the West’s attention towards backing the regime. tion, we would be willing to dis- Syria was only pricked again in Turkey launched the first of sev- cuss the establishment of a broad, February when Turkey threatened eral incursions across its southern national emergency government,” ported 109 COVID-19 cases in Israel has sought the backing of the Joint to open the floodgates for migrants border in 2016 and last year seized a he said. and said more than 32,000 people List, prompting attacks on social seeking to flee to Europe. 120km long strip of land from Kurd- Gantz was working to form a gov- were in quarantine. media, apparently from Jewish While the number of fronts has ish fighters. ernment in alliance with centre-left The national health emergency right-wingers. Gantz said he was been reduced by Damascus’s recon- Israel has carried out hundreds of parties and with the support of the lowered tensions between the two pursuing the formation of a gov- quest in recent years, the nature of strikes in Syria, which it said mostly Arab Joint List. He insisted such a main political rivals but there have erning coalition with ultranational- the war is changing and violence target Iranian and Lebanese fight- government should include repre- been threats against Gantz, who ist allies, including Avigdor Lieber- raged in north-western Syria. Other ers. sentatives from “all parties” repre- has been offered the protection man, leader of the small but pivotal regions have long been pacified but In the latest fighting, a Russia- sented in parliament. of the Shin Bet domestic security Yisrael Beitenu party, without ex- people there have yet to feel the backed offensive since December Israeli President Reuven Rivlin agency. cluding the possibility of an agree- dividends of peace as Syria plays on the last major rebel bastion of said he talked to both Netanyahu Social media postings warned ment with the Joint List. host to a complex international Idlib forced almost a million people and Gantz and offered “support Gantz that he could meet the same Referring to the threats, Gantz, showdown involving Russia, the to flee towards the closed Turkish for the formation of a government fate as former Israeli Prime Minis- on Twitter, called on Netanyahu to United States, Turkey, Israel and border within months. A Russian- as soon as possible to deal with the ter Yitzhak Rabin, who was assas- “stop this incitement to violence, Iran. Turkish ceasefire holds for now in national crisis,” a statement from sinated by a right-wing extremist do not say that you did not know.” Nine years ago, protesters in- Idlib, though it is not clear for how his office said. in 1995. spired by “Arab spring” uprisings long it will stem resisting jihadists The Israeli Health Ministry re- Since the March 2 election, Gantz (With news agencies.) demonstrated in the southern re- and other Turkey-backed rebels. 6 March 15, 2020 Opinion

Editorial Misinformation adds to danger of virus outbreak he coronavirus outbreak has unleashed a flurry of conspiracy theories and fake news. With the help of social media, the unwelcome inflow of misinforma- tion is adding to the confusion and anxiety sparked by the epidemic. TMENA, among all parts of the world, is no stranger to conspiracy theories and to disinfor- mation practices. In the coronavirus crisis, conspiracy theories could maybe alleviate fear and anguish. Illusory beliefs about impending cures and vaccines are at times better than desperation. Elizabeth Petrun Sayers, a behavioural and social scientist with the RAND Corporation, explained conspiracy theories by the need to “help reduce anxiety. If folks are looking for explanations, conspiracy theories can sometimes help them feel better.” However, in the current global health emer- gency, misleading information can hinder efforts to curtail the epidemic and further endanger the population. Since the first days of the contagion, there were unsubstantiated charges that the outbreak was man-made. The virus, some claimed, was © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly maliciously manufactured as a bioweapon. The United States, they alleged, wanted to cripple China for being a challenging economic competi- tor. Others said the Bill & Melinda Gates Founda- Diab must face reality if he is to steer tion encouraged the contamination to further vaccine sales. Lebanon out of its crises It did not matter that, on March 6, US billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates was discussing with Abu Khairallah Khairallah Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan the means of global cooperation to No reforms are possible in a country ruled by the illegal weapons stem the epidemic. Others pushed false and potentially dangerous employed in the service of Iran’s expansion project. cures, such as “miracle minerals” and “drinkable silver.” t’s useful, from time to time, always been ready in the past to banking sector in Lebanon? Not only are such claims not backed by science, help Lebanon? they are potentially dangerous. They can imperil to resort to common sense and The demonising campaign against the health of millions and distract public health possess some level of modesty Nothing of this sort has taken Lebanese banks denotes a clear lack authorities from their focus. and realism, even if just a little place and, to make matters worse, of knowledge of Lebanese history “At the WHO we’re not just battling the virus, bit. nothing has been prepared for the and of reasons for the country’s past we’re also battling the trolls and conspiracy That is the natural reaction after-non-payment phase. Lebanon prosperity and for how Lebanon’s theories that undermine our response,” said Ito the speech March 7 during which simply announced that it will not banks formed an obstacle to the World Health Organisation Director-General Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan pay, then decided to negotiate. threat of collapse following the origi- Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Diab announced Lebanon’s intent Such a move does not reflect nal sin of signing the ill-fated Cairo The WHO has devoted much of its precious time to default on its Eurobond debt. responsible political leadership Agreement in 1969. At that time to countering outlandish claims and sensational- Lebanon borrowed a lot of money concerned about the fate of the Lebanon signed off its end, which ist accusations, some probably aimed at drawing by issuing international bonds in country as much as it reflects a is going to be this time at the hands attention and generating internet traffic. euros and is unable to pay its dues desire to push the country further of Hezbollah rather than Palestinian Sarah E. Kreps, a professor of government at because it is suffering from eco- into the unknown, like the scenario weapons. Cornell University, said she considers deliberately nomic collapse. that unfolded in Venezuela with the When there are declarations of spreading distortions to be practitioners of When you are in that situation, it dire consequences that plunged the the type “We do not need a banking “algorithmic capitalism,” in which people scare won’t help to talk about corruption country into chaos and poverty, not sector that is four times larger than up traffic and sell against it. in the country and how it devel- knowing if it will ever get out of it. the size of our economy; therefore, That was the case it seems of the fake video of oped to scandalous and outrageous It was important for Diab to cor- a plan to restructure the banking Saddam Hussein boasting about brave Iraqis who levels. What one needs to hear is rectly diagnose the country’s situa- sector must be prepared,” it can only are undaunted by coronavirus threats. tion. He recognised that “Lebanon More strikingly political, however, were whether your government has a be concluded that whoever said it Tehran’s officially sanctioned conspiracy plan to get the country out of its is going through a very delicate and the parties behind him are de- theories. mess. stage” and that “our reserves of liberately sweeping aside the secret After weeks of denial of casualties, Iranian It’s not enough to blame past hard currencies reached a critical behind Lebanon’s survival and want authorities accused the United States of manufac- administrations. What was even and dangerous level.” And then to push the country towards a Ven- turing the virus to harm China, then Iran. worse was that Diab got the past what? ezuelan scenario. Are banks not part The semi-official ISNA News Agency quoted mixed up and could not distinguish The prime minister has no choice of the national economy? Hossein Salami, commander of Iran’s Islamic between one stage and the next. but to face the truth instead of Before Diab’s speech, there was a Revolutionary Guard Corps, as saying: “Today, He never mentioned the party or running away from it. There is a tiny glimmer of hope that Hezbol- the country is engaged in a biological battle. parties responsible for driving the need for a minimum of humility lah would push towards giving the “We will prevail in the fight against this virus, country’s debt through the roof. and logic. There is no future for government room to manoeuvre which might be the product of an American He did not mention electricity in Lebanon without external support to secure the savings deposited in biological [attack], which first spread in China Lebanon, a sector that has been the and Diab cannot secure that sup- banks by Lebanese citizens, some of and then to the rest of the world. fiefdom of the Aounist movement port for two obvious reasons: he is whom have expatriated themselves He added: “America should know that, if it has for 11 years. Corruption in that sec- unacceptable to the Arab countries in the four corners of the Earth to done so, it will return to itself.” tor caused a $40 billion increase in and he does not want to deal with secure a better life for their families. In a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Lebanon’s foreign debt. the International Monetary Fund What the prime minister’s speech Guterres, former Iranian President Mahmoud If Diab does not want to clash (IMF) because of Hezbollah’s veto revealed was that what was required Ahmadinejad echoed similar conspiratorial with Lebanese President Michel of such a move. of Lebanon was to remain a “playing thoughts. “It is clear to the world that the mutated Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanon has only two paths to field.” Lebanon is required to remain coronavirus was produced in lab, manufactured by the warfare stock houses of biological war headed by Aoun’s son-in-law follow: reopen channels with the an Iranian card at a time when the belonging to world powers,” he was quoted as Gebran Bassil, can he at least have donor Arab countries, even though Islamic Republic is going through a saying. the courage to put his finger on the they are suffering from the sharp deep crisis, from which it is unlikely Conspiracy theories channel hostility to source of all of Lebanon’s ills: the il- drop in oil prices, or to the IMF. to emerge unscathed and able to convenient targets. For those in Tehran who legal weapons of Hezbollah’s militia Hezbollah, however, has blocked maintain its expansion project, believe in them, they offer easy explanations that are used to force Lebanon to that one. of which Lebanon has become an because they are buttressed by decades of join “the axis of resistance”? As for reforms Diab talked about integral part. animosity towards the United States. By positioning itself in this and had been called for during the The current Lebanese govern- For Tehran, the accusations had the added axis, Lebanon sealed its Arab and CEDRE Conference in 2018, thanks ment will find any way out of the advantage of deflecting blame on outside actors international isolation and Diab was to the personal efforts of former state of collapse. In fact, it came to for inept handling of the epidemic. just speaking to himself when he Prime Minister Saad Hariri, that consecrate it and the proof is that it “Conspiracy theories promoted for political declared Lebanon’s inability to pay path has been closed. No reforms has no answers to simple questions gain do not kill like viruses do but, by infecting its debt. are possible in a country ruled by from the Lebanese: Where are our the public discourse with false or harmful ideas, Lebanon’s foreign debt has the illegal weapons employed in the bank deposits? Where is tourism? they make it harder for citizens to ascertain the reached about $90 billion and this is service of Iran’s expansion project. Where is foreign trade? Where is the truth and hold politicians accountable,” Scott the first time in its modern history Ultimately, it must be recognised clear stand on Iran’s exporting the Radnitz, director of the Ellison Centre at the it refused to repay its obligations. that Hezbollah does not care coronavirus to Lebanon? University of Washington, wrote in the Guardian Granted that Lebanon is not the whether Lebanon survives. It is There is only one possible sum- newspaper. first country to find itself in such a mary of Diab’s speech: This govern- A more useful exercise for Iran and the rest of only interested in what Iran wants. the region’s governments would be to devote predicament but the crucial ques- Hezbollah deliberately overlooked ment cannot protect the money their time to the dissemination of information tion is: Has it done what it should everything that the Aoun cronies of the Lebanese people, nor can that can save lives. have done to guarantee itself the did in the electricity sector because it protect their health. Therefore, Accurate information could have saved the lives right to negotiate for rescheduling it needed a Christian cover. some humility seems more than of the 27 people or more in Iran who died from its debts in a way acceptable to Does Diab have the audacity to necessary. alcohol poisoning trying to protect themselves international financial institutions open the file of the electricity sector from the coronavirus. and to friendly countries, especially or is his agenda dictated by Hezbol- Khairallah Khairallah is a Lebanese the Arab donor countries that had lah and consists of attacking the writer. March 15, 2020 7 Opinion

Unassertive foreign policy only hurts Published by Al Arab Egypt’s interests Publishing House

Mohamed Aboelfadl Publisher Egypt should not be like Iran, interfering in the affairs of other countries, and Group Executive Editor or like Turkey, seeking hegemony on ideological grounds. Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD gyptian decision and mercenaries there. ish incursions in Libya was ence on involving a fourth party makers seem to be Egypt seemed shocked by not enough to garner interna- in the negotiations was fruitless. Editor-in-Chief steering away from Turkey’s striking naval and tional support for Cairo to take Egypt relied on Washington to Oussama Romdhani their traditional security memoranda of under- military action against Turkey’s push negotiations with Ethiopia caution in deal- standing with the Government mercenaries and confront Anka- in the direction of Cairo’s wishes ing with regional of National Accord in Tripoli. ra, even though Cairo’s position but that failed. Addis Ababa re- Managing Editor Ecrises. There have been signs The move reflected a blatant was compatible with generally fused to budge from its position Iman Zayat of a firmer tone in dealing with desire to resolve the situation shared positions of combating even though the case presented Ethiopia as obstacles emerged in Tripoli militarily in favour extremism and extremists. by Egypt was credible, fair and Senior Editor in negotiations about the Grand of the team supported by An- Ankara is aware of this duplicity legal. John Hendel Ethiopian Renaissance Dam kara at the expense of the team in international attitude and Cairo finds itself in a position that indicate Cairo is losing backed by Cairo. harboured extremists in full in which it can no longer effec- patience with Addis Ababa By contrast, Egypt was keen view of international powers. tively influence developments in Chief Copy Editor and perhaps with other parties that all aspects of its material Cairo, which knows the scope crises in which its interests are Richard Pretorius as well. Despite its benefits, support to the LNA be in secret of the complications that can at stake, whether in the Palestin- patient diplomacy seemed to be and sometimes even justified, stem from terrorism, rejected ian territories, Yemen, Libya or Copy Editors hurting Cairo. which reinforced the idea of Cai- expanding its anti-terrorist mili- Ethiopia. Its cautious approach In Yemen, reluctance to pro- ro’s ​​excessive patience held by tary actions into Libyan terri- has become a burden and ena- Stephen Quillen vide ground support for Arab competing forces in the region, tory despite knowing that Libya bled rivals to increase pressure. Kyle Arensdorf coalition forces might have foremost among them Turkey. has become a base for many Cairo confined itself to a mon- spared Egypt casualties but it Ankara has been keen to place who crossed into Egyptian to itoring role and has not shown exacerbated the Houthi threat Cairo under many pressures but engage in acts of violence. the daring that is required of East/West Editor and gave Iran a green light those pressures failed to push Cairo’s reticence to flex its any force wishing to have its say Mahmud El-Shafey to persist in its interventions Egypt to give up its caution. diplomatic muscle is not limited in the balance of power. there. Tehran has taken advan- When Egypt wanted to send to the Libyan crisis. It is appar- Egypt should not be like Iran, tage of Egypt’s declining role in messages suggesting toughness, ent in the handling of the issue interfering in the affairs of other Gulf Section Editor the region and made inroads in it intensified military manoeu- of the Grand Ethiopian Renais- countries, or like Turkey, seek- Mohammed Alkhereiji the Gaza Strip, just kilometres vres near the Libyan border and sance Dam (GERD). There, ing hegemony on ideological from Egypt’s borders. in the Mediterranean. too, Cairo pushed diplomatic grounds, or like expansionist Society and Travel Cairo has a wealth of informa- The exaggerated caution discourse to the utmost degree Israel or like elusive Ethiopia. Sections Editor tion on the political, security, turned into an obstacle to to reach a technical settlement However, if Cairo wants to Samar Kadi economic and social aspects exercising direct pressure and with Addis Ababa. preserve its outside interests, of the Libyan crisis, such that worked as an incentive for a For six years, Cairo has not it must abandon its cautious Senior Correspondents it is the best-qualified party to country like Turkey to increase given up hope of reaching an moves because external parties Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) know what is happening on the and diversify its threats because agreement through diplomacy, are reading them as signs of (Istanbul) ground there. It harbours many it knew Cairo was not ready to even though it lost several confusion rather than of a deep Thomas Seibert

elements of different forces in respond to provocation. rounds of negotiations. The strategic perspective on what is Regular Columnists Libya and does not hide its bias Cairo’s reliance on diplomacy GERD has become a fait accom- going on in the region. towards the Libyan National in the Libyan crisis led to An- pli and, within a few months, Perhaps this vision was Rashmee Roshan Lall Army (LNA). kara’s adherence to its military Ethiopia will start filling the justified the first couple of years Claude Salhani This made Cairo a key player choices, which it considers dam’s reservoir, placing the after the overthrow of the Mus- Yavuz Baydar in the various approaches that an adequate tool towards its Egyptian leadership in a highly lim Brotherhood’s rule in Egypt dealt with the crisis but did not goals. Ankara was exploiting sensitive position. and useful in arranging many prevent blatant interference by the hesitation of concerned Just like Iran and Turkey, external situations. However, Correspondents foreign powers in Libya nor did countries and especially Egypt’s Ethiopia exploited Cairo’s ad- conditions in Egypt have be- Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) they protect Egyptian interests conviction of non-intervention herence to negotiated solutions come stable and it is necessary from being threatened. Cairo’s in Libya, lest it gets mired in a and its rejection of unnecessary for Cairo to trade caution for Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) excessive patience in Libya quagmire. Turkey, on the other toughness and inflexibility. boldness. Roua Khlifi (Tunis) tempted Turkey to continue hand, sent terrorists to fight its All of Cairo’s moves in the its intervention, sending ships, battles against the LNA. GERD crisis were in the sphere Mohamed Aboelfadl is an Chief Designer equipment, terrorists, militants Open condemnation of Turk- of diplomacy. Even its insist- Egyptian writer. Marwen el-Hmedi

Designers Eurobond default sounds death knell for Ibrahim Ben Bechir Lebanon’s system Hanen Jebali Makram Rabah Contact editor at: The government’s decision to suspend payment came as a response to [email protected] popular demand but, in fact, the Diab government had no other option.

ountries, just like While news of default was tance to Lebanon and its people. tent and politically willing and people, know their unfavourable for the interna- Yet the real tragedy for Leba- sovereign institutions, something Al Arab Publishing House birth date but not the tional community and creditors non is not its entry into the club Lebanon clearly lacks. Quadrant Building day of their demise. In of the debt, the Lebanese public of defaulting nations but rather Thus, instead of regaining 177-179 Hammersmith Road this respect, Lebanon welcomed the action — or lack the performance of the Diab gov- the sovereignty of the state and London W6 8BS has proved to be an thereof — because defaulting on ernment and its handlers, which standing up to Hezbollah’s con- Cexception because, on March 9, the Eurobond saved what is left might make this lifetime club tinued infringements of it, Diab Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan of the country’s much-needed membership. This is particularly and his entourage have system- Diab announced that his govern- foreign currency reserves to allow the case because, until now, Diab atically lowered the expectations Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 ment would default a $1.2 billion for the purchase of basic com- failed to develop a clear and of the Lebanese and tried to Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 Eurobond debt. modities such as wheat, medicine credible reform and action plan appease them by claiming that Lebanon’s entry into the not- and fuel. that considers the challenges of they are, indeed, mindful of their so-prestigious club of defaulting Ostensibly, the government’s political and economic reform in health and financial future. countries is an announcement of decision to suspend payment Lebanon. Defaulting on the Eurobond US Publisher: the end of Lebanon’s economic came as a response to popular While it is correct that resched- is merely a symptom exposing model, one that has been in play demand but, in fact, the Diab gov- uling a country’s debt does not the degree of decay of Lebanon’s The Arab Weekly USA LLC. since the establishment of the ernment had no other option af- necessarily mean its ultimate entire political system, which is [email protected] demise, in the case of Lebanon it republic by the French mandate ter it failed to garner any financial simply rotten to its core, a rotten- [email protected] 1920. support from the international is proof that the liberal economic ness that no sweet-talking medio- The decision of the Diab community and turned down model that the Lebanese hold cre technocratic government can Tel: 248-679-6624 government to default on its the possibility of an International dear and the hegemony of Iran whitewash or salvage. sovereign debt was somewhat Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. and Hezbollah over all aspects of The pandemic spread of the expected because nearly all A week before Lebanon de- the state simply do not mix. coronavirus has aggravated the international rating agencies had faulted, Hezbollah took a very Diab’s announcing the default economic and political crisis. forecast it. The big three credit aggressive stand against the drove the final nail into the While it is certain that a cure for rating agencies — Standard & possibility of an IMF bailout, coffin of the Lebanese political that virus will sooner or later be Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch Group claiming that the financial pack- establishment that keeps using found, Lebanon’s political ail- Subscription & Advertising: — previously declared that the age would include political terms the pretext of Hezbollah to derail ments have to be remedied from [email protected] Lebanese government lacked that would infringe on Lebanon’s and stall reform, a pretext that is within and will require a new and Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 currency reserves to pay the debt, sovereignty. no longer accepted by Lebanon’s capable cabinet that is not politi- which Beirut denied, even threat- If Hezbollah was truly mindful regional Arab allies or the interna- cally or morally bankrupt. ening to sue anyone who claimed of its host country’s well-being, tional community. Mohamed Al Mufti otherwise. it should start by recalling its Contrary to what many in the Makram Rabah is a lecturer Marketing & Advertising Lebanese elite keep repeating, The Lebanese state and Banque troops who are engaged in Iran’s at the American University of Manager Du Liban Governor Riad Salame regional expansion plan and stop Lebanon’s problem is neither Beirut and author of “Conflict for years assured the public its relentless attack against the fiscal nor economic and sovereign on Mount Lebanon: The Druze, Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 that the central bank had ample Arab Gulf countries that, contrary debt restructuring, as proposed the Maronites and Collective www.alarab.co.uk reserves, which proved to be a to Iran’s empty promises, have by the Diab government, will fail Memory” (Edinburgh University scandalous fallacy. always provided financial assis- unless it is carried out by compe- Press). 8 March 15, 2020 Debate Coronavirus in MENA

Disconnected politicians across the region are ill-equipped to deal with the virus crisis

confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States surpassed the 1,000 mark. Claude Salhani Halfway around the world, there is the Iranian regime, shaken by lack of trust from the people for here is an international how it made things worse because pandemic with the of lack of transparency and blatant spread of the coronavi- ineptitude. Shaken but obviously rus and few countries not stirred enough to snap out of have owned up to the the authoritarian dreamworld in severity of the problem which it thrives. Short-sighted Tand the challenges the outbreak reactions to the spread of the virus creates. Yet, there were officials can be as infectious as the virus who engaged in useless polemics itself. and political posturing that dented Syria, another authoritarian- the public’s trust in the ability of governed country, is behaving in some politicians to cope with the a manner not very different than crisis. Iran. The Syrian regime is, despite From the inane phrases uttered reports of scores of people con- Critical times. Workers wearing protective gear spray disinfectant as a precaution against the coronavirus (AP) by the president of the United tracting the virus and contagion outbreak in the departure terminal at the Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, March 5. States, who stated in front of tel- being brought by Iranian militias evision cameras that he knew more fighting its war, stubbornly denied they medical, political, religious able than others. In some Middle Tayyip Erdogan refrain from shak- about this virus than some expert any coronavirus cases. or otherwise, must suspend their Eastern countries, the health-care ing the hands of European officials doctors after declaring to support- Not to be ignored is the risk differences for the sake of their infrastructure is very patchy at in Brussels gave one hope that ers at one of his campaign rallies, posed for and by the tens of thou- peoples’ well-being. Sectarianism best. the Turkish leader can perhaps that the coronavirus was “a sands of Syrian refugees transiting is not only outdated, it is blind More vulnerability is inflicted be inspired to see other priorities hoax.” through Turkey on their way to to the reality of the cross-border on the region by bellicose poli- besides war. A few days later the number of Europe. Their movement could threat. cies of neo-imperial powers. It is However, seeing his bodyguards have been one thing that is push- This virus, like any other virus, high time Iranians and Turks, for struggle to check people standing ing countries in Western Europe does not differentiate between instance, curbed their expansionist beside him for virus symptoms to try to keep their borders shut to Iranians and Iraqis nor does it ambitions and let their neighbours was a sobering reality check. Then, The virus outbreak is refugees. differentiate between Sunnis and concentrate on much-needed the Russians’ humiliating video of another reminder that The leaders of Syria and Iran — Shias. Tehran’s inept management development and rehabilitation of him waiting for Russian President and any other country that refuses of the crisis harmed all people of their socio-economic systems in- Vladimir Putin until the latter war has only to face the reality of the threat the region. stead of having to cope with armed deigned to receive him should compounded the posed by this virus — should be Scientists studying the virus aggression and subversive politics. wake Erdogan up to the fact that region’s inadequacies well aware that such an attitude stress that people with underlying The virus outbreak is another war does not guarantee him greater augments the threat of the disease. health conditions are most at risk. reminder that war has only com- stature or eternal rule. and only prolonged its Such thinking builds on the igno- Yet, in the Middle East and North pounded the region’s inadequacies inability to meet its so rance of leaders who only make Africa, it is not only the elderly and and only prolonged its inability to Claude Salhani is a regular things worse. the sick who are at risk. With few meet its so many critical chal- columnist for The Arab Weekly and many critical At crucial times such as these, exceptions, inadequate systems lenges. a senior fellow at the Institute of challenges. authorities around the world, be make the region more vulner- Seeing Turkish President Recep World Affairs in Washington. Coronavirus could cause long-term economic damage in MENA

aggravate situations such as new the negative economic effects of In the Middle East, Iran is suffer- or are going to be wiped out of the migration waves and social stability. the outbreak had been considerable ing the first blow from the COVID- market because of the sudden halt Alessandro Even in the short term, negative without considering the direct costs 19-induced economic crisis but in demand. Arduino economic effects of the virus are of intensive medical care. During even the oil-rich Gulf countries are As long as uncertainty reigns, it is emerging. The long-term effects of that time businesses, particularly bracing for impact. In Tehran, the possible to predict with confidence the event are difficult to predict. In in tourism-related areas, collapsed fall in hydrocarbons prices, the cur- that, in the coming weeks, most of nlike the European addition, using models based on the and the retail sector was also hit rent limitations on trade with Iraq China’s resources will be focused on Union and the As- economic and financial effects of hard. This time, focusing on tourist and a dwindling economic lifeline supporting the country’s economic sociation of South- SARS could be misleading. and retail sectors is not sufficient. from China, compounded with the reboot intended to provide a life- east Asian Nations, Despite being more lethal than As the world becomes more inte- US-led sanctions, are a recipe for line to private small and mid-size Africa has been COVID-19, SARS affected a smaller grated, the global cost of COVID-19 disaster. The Islamic Republic will enterprises to stimulate internal partially affected by number of people. Also, during can be expected to surpass the one survive but at what cost? consumption. Uthe COVID-19 outbreak. With Egypt 2002-03 the Chinese economic related to SARS. Starting with Iran and moving to China’s consumption was under confirming the first case in Africa, system was less connected with the Economic and financial fore- other MENA countries, hospitals are pressure prior to the coronavirus the spread of the virus in the Mid- rest of the world and the country casts will have to consider OPEC’s generally poorly equipped and, in event, with the manufactur- dle East and North Africa region is was in the middle of an economic and Russia’s response to the fall in many cases, have reached a break- ing sector under stress and local far more serious. growth cycle. demand for oil and gas as well as the ing point. In addition, hospitals and governments’ bad loans increasing While MENA and the rest of the This time, China’s economy is rise of unemployment and inter- clinics lack equipment and medi- dangerously. world scramble to contain the infec- not shielded by years of rising GDP. est rates. Since the COVID-19 virus cine while medical teams are near Beijing is going to leverage its tion, it is doubtful that any country China’s role in the global economy broke out, stock markets have been to exhaustion. financial sector as a cushion to other than China has the political is more marked, rising from 4% of hit by rising fears as well as uncon- The COVID-19 is a call for each safeguard corporate bankruptcies will, capability and civil authority the global GDP in 2003 to 16.3% in trolled and unverifiable social media country and the World Health Or- and to sustain troubled local gov- required to quarantine more than 2019, the International Monetary narratives. Crude oil prices continue ganisation to support and improve ernments. Planned deals involving 50 million citizens. While Gulf Fund said. In 2018, the value of the to drop amid demand concerns with health sector capacity and capabil- Beijing and MENA counterparts are countries have reported isolated global tourism sector was estimated a parallel rise in gold futures’ price, a ity as the spread of the virus will going to be put on hold. The finan- cases, Iran is suffering one of the at about $1.7 trillion, approximately safer asset in uncertain times. affect more areas with unexpected cial markets are already reassessing deadliest outbreaks outside China. 2% of total global GDP. The United States is aiming to contagion vectors. For example, previously over-optimistic evalu- From the local outbreak epicen- The China Outbound Tourism decouple its industrial supply the first case in Nigeria originated ations and replacing them with tre in Qom, home of hundreds of Research Institute estimates that in chain and trade sectors from China, in Italy while the first case in Qatar gloomier outlooks. Chinese students and even more 2019 more than 130 million Chi- ostensibly because of national se- came from Iran. The COVID-19 crisis will end and Chinese workers, the infection toll nese travelled abroad. Prior to the curity concerns, and the rest of the From Cape Town to Cairo, every China is signalling that the infection is growing rapidly and the peak has virus outbreak, the Chinese “New world is pointing fingers at Beijing economic sector from tourism to had peaked and a plateau in the vi- not been reached. The outbreak in Normal’’ growth model was already regarding the way the crisis has fishing has come to a sudden halt rus diffusion rate has occurred. The Iran ignited border closings with experiencing a downturn. After been handled. Nevertheless, there almost entirely because of the drop economic negative side effects are neighbouring countries, especially the outbreak, the predicted fall is a common behavioural fault that in demand from China. The first going to survive the infection. considering that Qom is a popular of China’s GDP from 6.5% to 4.5% needs to be addressed: The diffused tangible economic effect of the Therefore, only globally coordi- destination for Kuwaiti and Iraqi indicates that an economic crisis is perception that China’s economy virus is related to higher unemploy- nated efforts involving multilateral Shia pilgrims. brewing and not just for Beijing. will always rise. ment and an increase in inflation development banks are going to be The COVID-19 is a black swan At the end of SARS, the World At least the dismal science is rates. able to support the MENA region event: Highly unlikely yet carrying Health Organisation confirmed that quite clear on one rule, the econ- China’s temporary decoupling growth and avoid further disrup- extremely disruptive consequences. omy is cyclical. While everybody from the global economy, forced tion. The Italian social media’s Despite the fact that overall infec- takes China’s growth for granted, by the virus and not by US efforts, most common meme during the tion rates in MENA are minimal it is not carved in stone that the is going to have repercussions in COVID-19 crisis is related to use compared with other countries, The COVID-19 is a Belt and Road Initiative’s prom- many countries because of reduced of alcoholic beverages to quell the the long-term economic effects of black swan event: ises of cheap Chinese capital and export earnings and higher borrow- virus, which in the MENA region it COVID-19 are going to seriously af- the construction of Chinese-made ing costs in the short term, com- is not an option. fect regional growth. Highly unlikely yet infrastructure are going to proceed pounded by long-term economic Negative spillovers could en- carrying extremely as planned. China’s GDP growth has displacement. Alessandro Arduino is the danger economic stability in North been almost frozen for two months Broken global logistics chains author of “China’s Private Army. Africa and Iran where economies disruptive and has only recently begun to are going to move closer to produc- Protecting the New Silk Road,” are struggling to stay afloat and consequences. return to normal. tion sites, albeit at a higher cost, Palgrave-Macmillan, 2018. March 15, 2020 9 News & Analysis Syria Belligerents prepare for post-ceasefire military moves in Idlib

might continue. It moved more equipment and troops into Idlib and mounted a sustained campaign to James Snell claim the success of its short drive against the regime. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, n Idlib, in northern Syria, a co-chairman of Doctors Under Fire ceasefire filled with disquiet and a frequent visitor to observe has begun. After a difficult Idlib’s humanitarian situation, said: beginning, in which fighting “Any ceasefire in Idlib is welcome continued across the front and but they have a habit of being infini- marketplaces and hospitals tesimally short [in duration] and in Icontinued to be bombed, aspects of effect. civilian life have resumed. “However, this time the Turks In Syria’s pocket of insurgency, have shown their mettle and the the movement of people away from downing of… regime helicopters the front has decreased, with some [and] jets has rattled the Syrian Air returning to their homes. Others Force and massively reduced the have begun queuing for bread and amount of barrel bombs, which visiting marketplaces. have killed a large percentage of the This follows a major Turkish 500,000 civilians killed in this campaign against the air force, air conflict.” defences and military vehicles of Idlib, which lacks international the Assad regime, which shot down aid, has had its crossing from three regime aircraft, diminished Turkey repeatedly restricted as a its capacity to defend itself from result of wrangling in the United aerial attack and pushed the regime Nations. coalition’s ground forces back “There are 3 million civilians Anguish. A mask-clad passenger looks on upon her arrival by bus in Syria’s Kurdish area via the sufficiently far for rebels and trapped in Idlib and they must be Semalka border crossing in north-eastern Syria, March 1. (AFP) Islamist forces to recapture fed and watered. The UN, which territory lost in recent weeks. seems well able to get aid to The ceasefire means rebels must Damascus, must redouble its efforts give up those temporary gains and to put humanitarian aid into the it re-established joint patrols by vast, sprawling and desperate Turkish forces and Russian refugee camps between the Syria’s government troops. Turkish-Syrian border,” de Bretton- For Turkey, the ceasefire is a Gordon said. gamble. It has shown that its Even a more enthusiastic manned air force and drones can do international effort to provide aid makes dubious claims real damage to the Syrian govern- would be stymied by a resumption ment’s means of waging war. of hostilities. Either retaining the In shooting down regime aircraft ceasefire or threatening the regime and demonstrating the weakness of with serious military consequences Syria’s air defences, Turkey if it transgressed will each require a about COVID-19 grounded the fleet that had bombed serious international effort. Idlib and the surrounding area Although some NATO members relentlessly. In targeting regime offered their solidarity for Turkey’s Sami Moubayed skirts of Damascus. fering a major shortage of medical convoys and vehicles, Turkey losses and its fight against Syrian Even pro-government voices equipment and drugs because of ensured that the regime could not President Bashar Assad, none was peddle a similar line, with Leba- international sanctions. continue its offensive. required by treaty to join in and so Beirut nese journalist Rafik Lutfi writing The sanctions prevented hospi- However, every ceasefire in none did. Various countries have that 400 COVID-19 cases had been tals from upgrading existing equip- Syria’s war has proved little more suggested that the peace in video is making the registered in Syria while the Minis- ment and buying spare parts. This than an opportunity for the regime northern Syria be maintained by the rounds on Syrian social try of Health has taken “no meas- has been exacerbated by the dollar to recoup its strength, replace its creation of a no-fly zone but none media of veteran comedi- ure, except silence.” On March 10, a crunch that has ripped through the losses and wait for a more oppor- have attempted or offered to assist A an Yasser al-Azmeh sing- state-run hospital said one person country. Private hospitals claim tune time to resume its military in the creation of one. ing that he refuses to shake any- had been admitted on suspicion that they have not been able to buy moves. “The ceasefire is an arm wrestle, body’s hands — let alone kiss them of contracting COVID-19 but tests anything from Russia, Iran or Chi- Any new regime offensive could in effect, between the Turks and the — fearing a deadly virus. The video proved negative. na because the ability of ordinary lead to the collapse of the Idlib Russians, who must prevent Assad was recorded in 1988 but it is going Syrian authorities suspended Syrians to pay for state-of-the-art enclave, risking the lives of its 3 from arbitrarily attacking again. viral today during the coronavirus flights to and from Iraq and Jordan medical services is lacking. million residents and further strain Turkey would be greatly helped in pandemic. for one month, while the private Six months ago, the exchange the possibility that Turkey could this endeavour if NATO, and most The Syrian government insists Syrian airliner Cham Wings can- rate stood at 600 Syrian pounds hold back the tides of refugees especially the EU, which has most that COVID-19 has not reached Syr- celled flights from Iran as of March to the US dollar. It now stands at likely to head north; One million to lose from another 4 million ia. Such an argument might be dif- 1. Schools and universities re- 1,000 pounds, draining the already people have moved away from the refugees in Europe, stood full ficult to digest because the deadly mained open across Syria, despite razor-thin savings of ordinary Syr- front line towards the Turkish square with Turkey emotionally virus has surfaced in neighbouring neighbouring countries shutting ians, whose incomes have been re- border between the beginning and and physically,” de Bretton-Gordon Jordan and Lebanon. The num- them. duced to comically los levels. Labs end of the last regime offensive. said. bers are even higher in Iraq, where that conduct testing for the corona- Turkey has attempted to “Every day of a ceasefire in Syria the government cancelled Friday virus are charging 100,000 pounds re-establish a working relationship is to be applauded but this one will prayers in some places and closed In government-held areas, ($100) — higher than any salary in with Russia, which might hold the only work if the political ‘big dogs’ schools, universities and cinemas. hospitals are functioning the Syrian public sector. regime back for a time. This was get behind it, otherwise it will go This poses a very serious threat but suffering a major However, the international travel agreed March 5 in Moscow by the way of all the others and the to Syria because, for the past five shortage of medical ban that has been in place on Syria Russian President Vladimir Putin continuation of mass slaughter of years, thousands of Iraqi fight- equipment and drugs since 2012 might be a blessing in and Turkish President Recep Tayyip those who cannot protect them- ers from the Popular Mobilisation because of international disguise. Many nationals whose Erdogan. But this is not all that it is selves.” Forces travelled freely to Syria to sanctions. countries have been plagued with doing. The ceasefire in Idlib appears to fight alongside the Syrian Army. COVID-19 cannot travel to Syria and Turkey is simultaneously be holding but it cannot be Those fighters have roamed Syria’s “They want us to believe that their carriers don’t land at Damas- preparing for more fighting expected to do so forever. markets, mingled with ordinary Syria is immune from everything” cus International Airport. There are between its forces and the regime Syrians and lived in densely popu- chuckled Siham, a student at the no flights from Italy, for example, and the prospect that violence James Snell is a British journalist. lated neighbourhoods. Faculty of Dramatic Arts in Damas- which has the highest number of A large proportion of those fight- cus. “We have no coronavirus; the COVID-19 cases in Europe. ers would have travelled to Syria Syrian pound is doing fine… the re- The same cannot be said for the from Iran, where they received mil- construction process is under way opposition-held city of Idlib in itary training. Iran is another coro- — and the skies are blue in Damas- north-western Syria, where there navirus hotspot, with confirmed cus.” are foreign fighters aplenty from cases of COVID-19 numbering in Muhiddine, a medical doctor in countries — Pakistan, Tunisia, the tens of thousands. Damascus, said: “It’s only logical France and Iraq — with confirmed Additionally, Syria hosts many for the coronavirus to reach Syria COVID-19 cases. Iranian troops who have been ei- but I don’t think it has reached There is also a large number of ther fighting on the battlefield or us yet. We have a very outdated Turkish troops in the occupied cit- serving as advisers to the Syrian health-care system that is suffering ies of Jarabulus, Azaz, Afrin and government. In Tehran, cabinet from ten years of sanctions, mis- al-Bab, interacting frequently with ministers attending meetings wear management and corruption. We the armed opposition and resi- protective masks but none of that cannot quarantine people nor can dents of Idlib. At least one case of is happening in Syria. we test them properly. If the virus COVID-19 has been confirmed in In recent weeks, opposition web- were here, we would not be able to Turkey, meaning that there is a sites accused the Syrian Health combat it and it would spread like possibility of the virus spreading in Ministry of concealing the truth, forest fire.” north-western Syria. including reports that 22 Iranians If COVID-19 is confirmed in Syria, Precarious. A Turkish military convoy drives near the Syrian town of had been diagnosed with COVID-19 it could be fatal for the war-torn Sami Moubayed is a Syrian Kefraya on the highway linking the north-western Syrian province of and were quarantined in the vicin- country. In government-held areas, historian and author of “Under the Idlib to the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey, March 10. (AFP) ity of Sayeda Zeinab, on the out- hospitals are functioning but suf- Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). 10 March 15, 2020 Viewpoint Iraq The receding tide of America’s guardianship over Iraq

poured billions into. The rationale heard before is being repeated: Iraq may Nazli Tarzi struggle to defend itself against terrorism without aerial surveil- lance and support. Both were US-led advisory mis- crucial to the victory that sion accompanying Baghdad announced against ISIS counterterrorism in December 2017. Permanent US forces in northern installations can fade only if the Iraq was upended political process in Iraq is one after an assault by that favours US interests. IslamicA State militants killed two The actors the United States US Marines. placed in charge of the new Iraq The re-emergence of the are the same personalities Islamic State (ISIS) appears to gearing up for their expulsion. fulfil US President Donald Parliamentary factions aligned Trump’s ominous description of to (ir)regular forces secured a Iraq as “Harvard for terrorism” vote in January agreeing to expel but as political gears shift, signs US forces. Departure, viewed of the United States’ drawdown from the lens of actors hostile to are apparent to Iraq watchers the United States, is non-nego- and the international commu- tiable and time-sensitive. nity. Iraq’s ability to safeguard Many of these Iran-aligned its domestic affairs remains groups pressured Iraqi Prime questionable because of corrup- Minister-designate Mohammed tion across all branches of its Allawi to finalise a timeline for security apparatus. the US withdrawal. Failing to As the tide of the United forge the consensus he needed States’ influence recedes, the for parliament to approve his March 8 attack revives scrutiny cabinet lineup, Allawi resigned of Washington’s foreign policy March 1. priorities as Iraqi support on the In Trump’s mind, a with- streets and in parliament drawal on unfriendly terms Receding influence. US Army soldiers man a defensive position at Forward Operating Base Union III dissipates. Retired US generals would cost not the United States in Baghdad, last December. (Reuters) concede that Trump is not but Iraq, which Trump expects unaware of the fallout caused by will remunerate him in the form out” and, while NATO’s military enforced or planned. singled out in local media as a the United States’ 2011 Iraq of sanctions for damages operations have resumed, Iraqi As long as ISIS gasps for air, Shia-approved decision that pullout, ordered by his prede- sustained to the United States’ forces are fanning out across the US presence in Iraq can be Sunni parliamentary Speaker cessor, Barack Obama. “extraordinarily expensive rural terrain in north Iraq on the justified on grounds of securing Mohammed al-Halbousi warned Trump is cautious not to tread airbase,” Al Asad, struck by Iran prowl for ISIS remnants, without stability by cleansing northern would not be without reverber- along the same path as he in January. US backing. Iraq of ISIS affiliates and con- ating consequences. In the downsizes troop presence but US State Department spokes- The killing of the two Marines spirators. It was reported that absence of Kurdish and Sunni works to maintain influence akin woman Morgan Ortagus warned as part of a counterterrorism Iraqi and US forces eliminated 15 parties during the voting to indirect imperial rule in a Iran that it would pay the price operation to recover other US ISIS fighters during the mission. session, Shia factions ought to country the United States has of its mischief but Trump’s corpses from an ISIS-dug cave The scourge of terrorism is not take responsibility, Halbousi warnings make clear that reveals that joint operations the only thing keeping the stated. This, he added, could whether or not attacks originate under the banner of Operation United States’ 5,200 troops encourage the international inside Iran, Iraq will find itself at Inherent Resolve continue. firmly stationed in a country community to suspend financial As long as ISIS gasps ransom. However, it is not clear which of synonymous with abundant oil cooperation with Iraq. for air, the US Four months before the Iraq’s security actors enjoy wealth and rising poverty. While calls for the United United States killed the point advisory support from the Keeping Iran on its radar States’ exit grow united in Iraq, presence in Iraq can man of Tehran’s foreign policy in United States and those the presents another rationale but divisions deeper than those on be justified on Iraq was when the last US United States declines to the drivers for departure are the surface remain as does grounds of securing fatality had been recorded. Since cooperate with. more compelling for the global uncertainty over whether the the assassination of Islamic The strategic framework that powerhouse that formerly United States can secure a legal stability by cleansing Revolutionary Guard Corps governs their alliance has not abandoned the conflict in Libya, mandate that warrants its stay in northern Iraq of ISIS Major-General Qassem Soleim- been renegotiated and, simi- pulled out of northern Syria and war-devastated Iraq. ani in January, NATO’s Iraq larly, the decision to hasten the now hopes to excuse itself from affiliates and mission and joint Iraqi-US opera- departure of foreign troops in Iraq. Nazli Tarzi is an Arab Weekly conspirators. tions were “temporarily thinned parliament has not been legally Last January’s vote was correspondent in London. Iraqi MPs’ loyalties are not to their people

olitical life in Iraq today and concerns of the Iraqi people. mentarians who try to do an are able to follow the latest news is not led by real parties They exist for the sole purpose of honest job. about the various lists of candi- Majid but by parliamentary preserving their personal The October popular uprising dates for the position of prime al-Samarrai blocs and groupings. interests and those of influential and its demand to dissolve the minister, in a tedious repetition Even the only Shia members and for fulfilling the parliament filled the parliamen- of names that reveal the extent of party, the Dawa Party, paternalistic wishes of their tarians with fear of losing their their backwardness and confu- Pwhich earlier branded itself as a patrons. privileges so there were sion. political and proselytising move- Who has ever heard of a instances of rebellion against By tweeting now and then, ment, found it more lucrative to member of the Iraqi parliament decisions by various bosses in they’re living the delusion of abandon those ideals and delve standing amid his constituency parliament. being important people issuing into shady deals of pillaging public and pledging to meet their The phenomenon was starkly political statements to the mere money. demands for a decent life that is revealed in the vote of confi- mortals that we are. They’re Other than the Dawa Party, the compatible with the wealth of dence on Prime Minister-desig- living the delusion of being rest of the gang are basically Iraq and promise to step down if nate Mohammed Allawi. Allawi leaders capable of weighing in on well-known Shia families and he fails to do that? had the blessing of the major the public opinion by buying off personalities who turned into Who has ever heard of a Shia parliamentary blocs but he the collaboration of cheap parliamentary blocs. member of this honourable body won only 108 “yes” votes, among journalists or by appearing here Things are not that different speak out against the greedy whom were Sunni, Kurdish and and there on Iraqi and Arab TV on the Sunni side. The Islamic game of exchanging favours and Turkmen parliamentarians. This channels as analysts or veteran Party showed the same degree of interests between political means the Shia leadership is no strategists or representatives of greed and Sunni tribal leaders leaders and challenge the system longer in control of the political this parliamentary bloc or the and businessmen found it of injustice, tyranny and corrup- compass. other. opportune and profitable to be tion in parliament? Were it not for the blessing of This is not surprising because present in the parliament and Iraqi parliamentarians are the internet and social media on those channels are trying to maintain ties with influential there to implement the wishes of parliamentarians, the general compensate for their lack of Shia rulers to secure their the leaders of their blocs and if public would not know the professionalism by filling the interests and multiply them. this or that leader discovers that names, faces and nicknames of airwaves with content that The Kurdish political move- his protege has deviated from his the members of parliament and insults viewers’ intelligence. ment distinguished itself from instructions, he will eject him of their backers and support- In democratic countries that other influential parties by from the bloc and condemn him ers. respect their citizens, members preserving its political personal- to search for his interests They may have come from of parliament offer their services ity and national roots that elsewhere until the end of his famous cities and well-known without demanding compensa- Who has ever heard of express the aspirations of the term. families but they have offended tion and privileges like those Kurdish people represented by All 329 parliamentarians, those families and tribes and demanded by Iraqi parliamentar- a member of the Iraqi the Kurdistan Democratic Party, official statistics state, do not severed all ties with them by ians. Once their term is over, they parliament speak out which remained the first root for represent more than 20% of the residing in the gated and secured return to their former jobs and against the greedy the leadership of this movement. electorate in Iraq and even then homes of the Green Zone in receive their retirement pensions The late Jalal Talabani emerged their election is always through Baghdad. from these jobs. Not in Iraq game of exchanging from this leadership and estab- fraudulent ways. This percentage Recently, most parliamentar- where it is a different story, one favours and interests lished his own party, the Patriotic indicates that parliament is in no ians turned into informants of that must end. Union of Kurdistan. way representative of the Iraqi fortune. Thanks to the “Twitter between political Iraqi parliamentarians have people. Of course, there is a tiny virus” transmitted to them by US Majid al-Samarrai is an Iraqi leaders? nothing to do with the interests minority of individual parlia- President Donald Trump, Iraqis writer. March 15, 2020 11 News & Analysis Gulf Saudi optimism about market endures despite ‘price war’ with Russia

Mohammed Alkhereiji to commit to output cuts, which was probably viewed in Riyadh as an in- dication of what Novak might tell London OPEC. The US shale oil industry appears he announcement that Sau- to be a major factor in Russia’s deci- di Arabia would increase the sion. “Moscow’s refusal to join with production of oil to be sold the cartel is aimed in part at drown- T at discounted prices rocked ing US shale oil companies that rely global markets, plunged the price on higher prices in a sea of cheap of oil and signalled a breakdown in crude,” a CNN analysis by Matt Egan the alliance with Russia that had said. worked to stabilise energy markets “Putin’s goal is to wrest market since 2016. share back from American frackers, What was dubbed “oil price wars” whose debt-fuelled growth caused was, in fact, an attempt by Saudi Russia to lose its title in 2018 as the Arabia to preserve its global market world’s largest oil producer,” Egan share, analysts said. said in the CNN report. OPEC, in a meeting March 6 with Russia also disputes the Trump Russian oil officials, had hoped to administration’s decision last year agree on cuts in oil production of 1.5 to impose sanctions on Russia’s million barrels per day (bpd) to ad- Nord Stream 2 project, a pipeline dress an expected drop in demand linking Russia to Europe. In Febru- related to the coronavirus outbreak. ary, the White House sanctioned a However, Russian Energy Min- subsidiary of Russian state oil major ister Alexander Novak said Russia Rosneft operation in Venezuela. would not be making further cuts, Following the failure to reach a a decision based on the Kremlin’s compromise in Vienna, Riyadh, as talks with Russian oil companies op- the world’s oil swing producer, said Crude tactics. Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud (L) and Russia’s Energy posed to production reduction. it would open the taps. Minister Alexander Novak at the beginning of an OPEC and NON-OPEC meeting in Vienna, last December. Although reports highlighted the “Saudi Aramco announces that it (Reuters) surprise among OPEC members at received a directive from the Min- Novak’s statement, it appears Saudi istry of Energy to increase its maxi- Arabia was prepared to act if nego- mum sustainable capacity from 12 Russia all agreed on this cut. How- in the long term, it will improve as on oil supplies. tiations failed. million bpd to 13 million bpd,” the ever, Russia wanted to keep produc- demand picks up, as fears over the “I want to say the doors are not company said in a statement to the tion as it wished, which runs con- coronavirus dissipate.” closed,” Novak told the Rossiya 24 Saudi Stock Exchange. trary to what they have been doing The United Arab Emirates said on state news channel. “The fact that Following the failure to Saudi Arabia apparently was not for the last two or three years, coor- March 11 that it was joining Saudi the agreement has not been extend- reach a compromise in prepared to be a casualty of the US- dinating with OPEC.” Arabia in increasing daily oil output. ed after April 1 does not mean that Vienna, Riyadh, as the Russian dispute, particularly after “Here Russia can disturb the mar- “In line with our production capac- we cannot continue to cooperate world’s oil swing producer, Riyadh’s efforts to stabilise the mar- ket and take over sectors if [it keeps] ity growth strategy… we are in a with the OPEC and non-OPEC coun- said it would open the taps. ket since 2016 benefited both Russia on not reducing production,” the position to supply the market with tries.” and the United States. former energy official said, stressing more than 4 million barrels per day Peskov suggested it was possible Discord developed between Ri- “The drop in oil demand because that for Saudi Arabia to preserve its in April,” the Abu Dhabi National Oil for Russia and Saudi Arabia to reach yadh and Moscow in February when of the coronavirus meant that the market share, it decided to fight this Company said in a statement. a compromise. “No one is exclud- Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz OPEC members plus Russia were tendency by the Russians. The Russians apparently blinked ing this possibility and Novak has Al Saud reached out to Russian supposed to coordinate reductions “That means we are going to even before the UAE announce- spoken about this,” Peskov told RIA President Vladimir Putin to discuss in production because of the fall in push production to 13 million bar- ment. On March 10, Novak and Novosti news agency. output restrictions, the Wall Street demand,” a former Gulf energy offi- rels per day, which will bring prices Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov Journal reported. Saudi officials told cial told The Arab Weekly. down, admittedly, but for the short suggested that Russia remains open Mohammed Alkhereiji is the Gulf the US newspaper that Putin refused “The OPEC members other than term this is what will happen and, to an agreement with Saudi Arabia section editor of The Arab Weekly. Saudi arrests spark speculation about attempted coup

The Arab Weekly staff those detained may have planned to influence the kingdom’s Allegiance Council. London Set up in 2007 by King Abdallah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud to address suc- lthough not officially con- cession within the ruling generation firmed, high-profile arrests of the royal family, the Allegiance in Riyadh reportedly in- Council was intended to guarantee A volved senior members of a smooth transition with regards to the royal family, including the king’s the choice of the crown prince. Previ- younger brother and a former crown ously, the issue was resolved through prince. informal consensus within the royal Saudi Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz family. Al Saud, 78, a former interior minister Prince Ahmed was widely reputed and one of the last surviving sons of to be opposed to Crown Prince Mo- the founder of Saudi Arabia, King Ab- hammed becoming heir to the throne dulaziz Al Saud, and Saudi Prince Mo- in 2017. In 2018, while in self-imposed hammed bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz, 60, exile in London, Prince Ahmed was a former crown prince, who served quoted as telling protesters outside as Saudi interior minister from No- the Saudi Embassy that King Salman vember 2012 until his sacking in June and Crown Prince Mohammed were 2017, were arrested March 6. to blame for the humanitarian crisis That no formal announcement in Yemen. was made regarding reasons for the Prince Ahmed and Prince Moham- rumoured arrests created specula- med reportedly had talks on using tion about Saudi King Salman bin Ab- the Allegiance Council “to block the dulaziz Al Saud’s health. To address accession” of Crown Prince Moham- the rumours, officials released pho- med if King Salman died or became tos of King Salman, 84, conducting incapacitated, the Guardian newspa- normal activity. per reported. Sources in Saudi Arabia said Prince Sources told the Guardian that the Ahmed and Prince Mohammed along senior royals were trying to install with two other members of the royal Prince Ahmed as chairman of the Al- family had been detained. Arrests legiance Council, currently a vacant Swirling rumours. Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud reads a document at his palace in included Interior Ministry officials position. Riyadh, March 8. (AP) and senior military officers. The A source told Thomson Reuters Wall Street Journal said the arrests that Crown Prince Mohammed ac- stemmed from a “coup attempt” to cused the two men of “conducting undertaking, particularly in women’s royal family, which numbers around was a coup attempt, it has clearly unseat King Salman and Saudi Crown contacts with foreign powers, includ- rights and the entertainment sector. 10,000 members. reached opposite results than those Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin ing the Americans and others, to car- However, the reforms are very pop- With Crown Prince Mohammed’s that would have been pursued by the Abdulaziz. ry out a coup d’etat.” ular in the kingdom and most Saudis consolidation of power, which in- plotters. A coup would be difficult in Saudi Prince Ahmed and Prince Moham- consider Crown Prince Mohammed cludes intelligence and security agen- A Saudi source told Thomson Reu- Arabia, considering Crown Prince med were known for having ties with as the catalyst behind the chang- cies, the prospects of a coup succeed- ters that “with these arrests, [Crown Mohammed’s tight hold on the king- the traditional Saudi Wahhabi reli- es. Besides being popular with the ing were slim. Prince Mohammed] consolidated his dom’s security bodies. gious establishment, which is unhap- kingdom’s youth, the crown prince It remains to be seen whether any full grip on power. It’s over with this Western media also reported that py with the reforms the kingdom is also has staunch supporters in the more arrests will take place. If there purge.” 12 March 15, 2020 News & Analysis Egypt Egypt seeks Arab support on Nile dam row

Amr Emam The GERD is viewed as a major threat to Egypt, which relies on the Nile as its water source. The Cairo gigantic structure, which Ethio- pia began constructing in 2011, gypt has begun rallying will hold 70 billion cubic metres Arab, African and inter- of water and is planned to gen- national support for its erate 6,000 megawatts of power E position on Ethiopia’s annually. Nile dam after Cairo and Addis Addis Ababa said the project Ababa were unable to reach an is necessary for its economic de- agreement on filling the reser- velopment, having made plans voir. to sell electricity surpluses to Egyptian Foreign Minister neighbouring countries and be- Sameh Shoukry toured seven come Africa’s next electrical Arab countries, including Jor- power hub. dan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the Egypt, however, said the dam United Arab Emirates, to explain threatens to deprive it of a size- Egypt’s position on the Grand able amount of water from the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Nile. The water shortage could (GERD). harm farmlands, reduce elec- The 3-day tour came as Ad- trical power generation at the dis Ababa insisted it would be- High Dam in southern Egypt and gin filling the dam reservoir in cause social unrest, experts fear. July, even if a deal had not been “These are effects Egypt is far reached with Egypt. from ready to face,” said water expert Nour Abdel Monem. Egyptian parliament Speaker Egypt, analysts said, is Ali Abdel A’al, described Nile intent on pursuing all legal water as a “life or death” issue channels to protect its water for Egyptians. rights, including involving “We have confidence in the more international parties. ability of the political leader- ship to protect Egypt’s right to Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan had the Nile water,” Abdel A’al said. reportedly been close to a deal “This is something that Egypt Reaching to friends. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry (L) and Saudi Minister of State for on the multibillion-dollar dam cannot do without.” African Affairs Ahmed Kattan (R) attend the 153rd Arab Foreign Ministers meeting at the Arab League February 29 but Ethiopia’s dele- Egyptian, Ethiopian and Suda- headquarters in Cairo, March 4. (DPA) gation failed to appear at a meet- nese negotiators spent most of ing and requested more time for the four months of the US- and consultations. World Bank-sponsored talks declaration of principles signed On March 5, Sudan expressed on pursuing all legal channels to Egyptian Irrigation Minister negotiating the period during by Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. reservations over an Arab protect its water rights, includ- Mohamed Abdel Aty called Ethi- which Ethiopia would fill the However, Ethiopia has insisted League resolution backing its ing involving more international opia’s move “shocking.” dam reservoir. it will go ahead with the project position and Egypt’s position on parties. “It showed that Ethiopia did Egypt sought assurances that even without Cairo’s approval, the GERD. “By insisting not to sign a not want to sign anything bind- Ethiopia would not withhold putting Egypt in a corner. Kamel met with top officials of binding deal, Ethiopia demon- ing,” he said March 9 in an inter- water during droughts. On March 3, Egyptian Presi- the Sovereign Council of Sudan, strates its desire to cause harm view with the Saudi broadcast- “In the worst of cases, Ethio- dent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi asked including council Chairman Ab- to Egypt,” said Diaa al-Qousi, ing company MBC. pia would have been able to Egyptian Army commanders to del Fattah al-Burhan. Kamel also another water expert. “This is The US administration asked generate 75% of the amount of be ready to carry out missions travelled to Juba, South Sudan, why Egypt should ask help from Addis Ababa not to fill the dam electricity it wants to generate to defend Egypt’s national secu- only kilometres away from the all international institutions, in- reservoir before signing the deal. in normal conditions,” Abdel Aty rity. A week later, Sisi sent his Ethiopian border and the GERD cluding the United Nations and Ethiopia accused the United told MBC. intelligence chief, General Abbas site, and met with President the African Union.” States of following an “undiplo- Ethiopia cannot fill in the Kamel, to Sudan amid growing Salva Kiir and other South Suda- matic course” by trying to influ- dam reservoir without approval concerns that the country was nese officials. Amr Emam is an Arab Weekly ence the outcome of dam talks. from Egypt because of a 2015 aligning itself with Ethiopia. Egypt, analysts said, is intent contributor in Cairo. Viewpoint As it moves closer to Eritrea, Egypt eyes military base on Nora island

charter to establish the Council for the region’s expanding gas Alexandria, and is awaiting Ethiopia and Eritrea techni- Sabahat Khan of Arab and African States market. delivery of 20 Falaj 2-class patrol cally remain at war and last bordering the Red Sea and the Geological surveys suggesting boats. witnessed major clashes in 2016. here have been un- Gulf of Aden. potential gas reservoirs under Egypt has also been develop- Having built one of Africa’s most confirmed reports that For Egypt, this development the Red Sea’s seabed could signal ing strategically positioned joint capable air and ground forces, Egypt may be moving comes as part of a multipronged an added maritime security bases in Gargoub, on its north- Addis Ababa’s confessed desire close to an agreement strategy to restore its influence significance for the basin beyond western coast near the border to reconstitute a naval capability with Eritrea, with and take on a greater security freedom of navigation. with Libya, in Ras Banas on its to protect its interests at sea is which ties have been role in the region — particularly In response to the region’s south-eastern coast overlooking giving rise to anxiety in Eri- Twarming in recent years, to host a within the maritime sphere. evolving security dynamics, the Red Sea and at Port Said, trea. new Egyptian naval base on Nora Egypt has seen new risks Cairo has been investing in a close to the Suez Canal. Sudan and Ethiopia have island. emerge with Yemen’s implosion, major modernisation of its Increasing strategic premiums formed a joint military operation Cairo traditionally dismissed instability in Libya and earlier ageing, largely Soviet-era naval attached to overseas bases could along their border whereas the idea of overseas regional with maritime piracy off the fleet to reassert itself as a true well mean Cairo may soon need Sudan dispatched thousands of bases owing to political sensitivi- Horn of Africa. Cairo’s policies blue-water navy. In 2016, Cairo to revise its traditional policy on troops to its border with Eritrea ties but has been investing in a are being driven by a new added two Mistral-class amphibi- the issue and consider develop- in response to Egypt’s reported new strategy to bolster its military build-up in the wider ous assault ships to its fleet to ing a strategic presence that troop deployment to the country maritime power. region that has featured a serve as command centres for the enables extended power three years ago. The reports suggest an growing footprint for Iran and Egyptian Navy’s newly created projection capability through Egypt dismisses any intent to agreement between Cairo and Turkey. North and South fleets. arrangements with partners such interfere in Ethiopia and Sudan Asmara over an Egyptian Turkey, which in December Cairo added a FREMM as Eritrea. as conspiratorial and “fake deployment to Nora, an island on concluded a maritime border multipurpose frigate and is said Eritrea’s growing alignment news.” Despite resolving key Dakhla Peninsula off the Eritrean delimitation agreement with to be finalising the purchase of with Egypt is, however, causing disagreements related to GERD coast. Egypt is believed to have a Libya, has its largest overseas two more from Italian ship- concerns with Ethiopia and with Ethiopia earlier this year contingent of forces in Sawa, military base in Somalia and builder Fincantieri. Earlier, it Sudan. Cairo and Addis Ababa when Washington hosted talks Eritrea, stationed at an Arab base secured a long-term lease for concluded orders for six Ger- have been locked in a dispute that involved the World Bank, reportedly secured by Saudi Suakin port from Sudan two man-made MEKO A-200 frigates, over the Grand Ethiopian Renais- symptoms of mistrust between Arabia and the United Arab years ago. More recently, massive four Gowind-class corvettes, sance Dam (GERD), the conti- the African neighbours linger. Emirates for a 30-year period. gas finds in the Eastern Mediter- three of which are to be built in nent’s biggest hydroelectric dam As Egypt assumes an Eritrea’s location at the ranean raised tensions as Ankara being constructed on the Nile enhanced regional maritime southern entrance of the Red Sea lays claim to resources off the River’s main tributary that could security role, its future strategy gives it a growing strategic value. coast of Cyprus. threaten Egypt’s water secu- may well need to feature deeper Rising international interest and Egypt has agreements with rity. engagement on military matters competition in and around the Israel and Cyprus for the supply Cairo traditionally Sudan, which backs GERD, with security partners such as Red Sea, with the Bab el Mandeb of natural gas by ship and via dismissed the idea of has had complicated ties with Eritrea but it will also have to choke point to its south and the pipelines from their offshore Cairo and an unresolved dispute contend with the same tradi- Suez Canal to its north, gener- fields, which it processes and overseas regional over the Egyptian-controlled tional rivalries that opened up ated a renewed effort by Cairo re-exports from gas liquefaction bases owing to Halayeb Triangle, which is near space in the region for an and Riyadh to coordinate on the stations in Idku and Damietta. political sensitivities Egypt’s new Ras Banas base. international military build-up region’s maritime security Last year, Egypt convened the On the other hand, Ethiopia in the first place. architecture. East Mediterranean Gas Forum but has been has been landlocked and without In January, Saudi efforts to with the participation of Jordan, investing in a new a coastline since Eritrea seceded Sabahat Khan maintains a build a new Red Sea bloc moved Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Israel and from it in 1993 following a cross-disciplinary focus in forward when representatives the Palestinian territories in a bid strategy to bolster its violent conflict that has killed international security, defence from eight countries signed a to establish regional cooperation maritime power. more than 80,000. policy and strategic issues. March 15, 2020 13 News & Analysis Maghreb Poll points to extreme polarisation between Ennahda and political nemesis

Lamine Ghanmi the role of power broker despite its declining support among voters since 2011 and inability to win over Tunis potential political allies. Skirmishes within Ennahda espite his ascendancy to ahead of a party congress this one of the most influen- spring have proved damaging to tial positions in Tunisia, Ghannouchi’s reputation. D Islamist Ennahda Move- Saied, however, was said to be ment President Rached Ghan- the most trusted political figure nouchi is the least trusted figure with 67% of Tunisian respondents in Tunisia’s political landscape, a saying that the president was the poll indicated. leader who inspires the most trust, Asked to choose the “most ab- the Sigma Conseil poll stated. solutely distrusted political per- Saied has no political party af- sonalities,” 68% of respondents filiation and no particular support named Ghannouchi, a survey by base in parliament but analysts Tunisian firm Sigma Conseil stat- said his supporters are working to ed. create a political party that would Ghannouchi, the parliament allow him to convert his public speaker, is locked in power strug- opinion ratings into a mobilisation gle with Tunisian President Kais platform. Saied over policymaking and di- If presidential elections were plomacy and is pitted in almost to take place in March, the poll daily political skirmishes in parlia- results indicated, Saied would ment with the staunch anti-Islam- be overwhelmingly re-elected, ist opposition figure Abir Moussi. receiving more than 66% of the votes, nearly ten times his closest contender. Skirmishes within Moussi, president of the fiercely Ennahda ahead of a party anti-Islamist Free Destourian Par- congress this spring have ty, trailed Saied with 6.7% of the proved damaging to vote. She was followed by Qalb Ghannouchi’s Tounes leader Nabil Karoui and reputation. parliament member and writer Different views. Tunisia’s President Kais Saied (R) receives Ennahda leader and parliament Speaker Safi Said with 6.2% each. Rached Ghannouchi at the Carthage presidential palace. (AFP) Despite being the party with the Karoui finished second to Saied most seats (54) in the 217-member in the presidential elections in parliament, Ennahda has found 2019 despite being jailed on charg- Hatem Mliki, an MP and a Qalb the Free Destourian Party. Moussi’s party pledged to seek itself increasingly isolated and at es of corruption and money laun- Tounes official, said 11 MPs -re If parliamentary elections took a legal ban of Ennahda and pros- risk of being sidelined by smaller dering, and remains “overshad- signed in early March from the place in March, the Free Destou- ecute its leaders. parties that constitute a de facto owed by suspicions of corruption,” party in disagreement over poli- rian Party would have received the Moussi does, however, face a pro-Saied coalition. the poll showed. cies, including its rapprochement second-most votes — 22% of the reputational problem of her own. Ennahda has been wary of Qalb Tounes is the second-larg- with Ennahda. ballots — behind Ennahda (24.3%), Poll results showed a high level Saied’s repeatedly floated idea est party in parliament with 38 “Our party chairman had ac- Sigma’s survey showed. of distrust of her among survey to change Tunisia’s parliamen- seats and has become the objec- cused Ghannouchi of having a role Moussi’s party is perceived by participants. Some of the lack of tary political system into a more tive ally of Ennahda in its opposi- in assassinations of opponents more than 20% of poll respond- confidence could have to do with presidential regime. Saied has also tion to Saied. and recruiting terrorists to fight ents as the only movement able extensive TV and social media called for changing election laws However, in a blow to Ennah- with foreign jihadists in war zones to stop Ennahda’s power grab and coverage of her abrasive tactics. that underpin Ennahda’s domi- da, which planned to use Qalb but he changed tack now by call- to provide hope of social and eco- She was said to be distrusted by nance of Tunisian politics. Tounes’s support to build a par- ing Ghannouchi ‘our big father.’ nomic recovery. 52% of those polled, behind Ali “Some people want to govern liamentary majority that would This issue prompted controversy The polarised outlook could Laarayedh, a former prime min- the country by fanning the crisis,” include the radical Al-Karama Co- in the party,” Mliki said. mean political tensions in Tunisia ister and possibility to replace Saied said in an allusion to the gov- alition with 21 seats, Qalb Tounes In a further deepening of polari- because there is no prospect that Ghannouchi as Ennahda leader, ernment’s instability the past nine was recently deserted by several sation, the poll indicated compe- the Free Destourian Patty would with a 59% distrust figure, and years because of a fractured politi- deputies, some of them the party’s tition evolving into a showdown find common ground with En- Hamma Hammami, a communist cal situation that put Ennahda in prominent figures. between Ennahda’s Islamists and nahda. leader, with 62%. Libya’s ceasefire hard to reach, so is finding new UNenvoy

Michel Cousins blackmail the European Union into of the African Union’s High-Level supporting it in Syria by flooding the Committee on Libya. It is headed by border with Greece with migrants. Congolese President Denis Sassou Tunis However, if the aim was to pres- Nguesso. The meeting was also at- sure Haftar to agree on a ceasefire, tended by Chadian President Idriss or the third time in four it did not work. At most, Haftar said Deby and Algerian Prime Minister years, Libyan National Army he would sign a ceasefire agreement Abdelaziz Djerad, among others. Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar and would stick to it so long as the Ramaphosa has been quoted say- F was in Paris for talks with militias in Tripoli also stuck to it. ing that an African should be the French President Emmanuel Macron That meant no ceasefire. new UN special envoy. UN Secretary- about the Libyan crisis. Despite Merkel urging Sarraj to ac- General Antonio Guterres is also This time, though, his rival, Fayez cept a ceasefire, the head of the GNA thought to favour an African. At the Sarraj, head of the UN-recognised set his own tough condition for a AU summit in Addis Ababa on Feb- Government of National Accord ceasefire — that the LNA pulls back ruary 9, he agreed with calls that the (GNA), which faces Libyan National to the positions it held before its of- African Union should have a greater Army (LNA) siege in Tripoli, was not fensive to take Tripoli 11 months role in solving the Libyan crisis. present. There was no attempt at a ago. There were reports that Guterres personal dialogue or reconciliation Haftar refused to consider the was considering appointing former between the two. idea. He has other demands that Sar- Algerian Foreign Minister Ramtane raj will not accept — that local mili- Lamamra to the job. Lamamra clas- It is far from clear that tias fighting with the GNA forces be sifies as an African but, as an Algeri- disarmed and dissolved, that Islam- Looking for allies. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (R) an, he would arouse the hostility not Guterres has anyone in mind ist militants be removed, that Turk- speaks with Fayez Sarraj, head of Libya’s UN-recognised Government only of Morocco and its allies in the (DPA) or that anyone is prepared to ish forces and Syrian and other mer- of National Accord, March 10 African Union but also of Egypt and take on the job. cenaries fighting with the GNA be Egypt’s ally in Libya, Haftar. thrown out of the country and that can ultimately win. the attention is on who will replace In fact, it is far from clear that Gu- It was just Haftar and Macron on the United Nations withdraws legiti- In and around Tripoli, it means him. A growing consensus is that it terres has anyone in mind or that an- March 9 talking about a ceasefire and macy from the Sarraj government. that the relatively low-level war of could be a sub-Saharan African. In a yone is prepared to take on the job. an end to the blockade of Libyan oil The last demand is not new and attrition continued with neither side move seen as linked to the appoint- That he announced that UN Deputy exports. The following day, Haftar had appeared to have been dropped making progress. The first week of ment, Sarraj was in Pretoria for talks Special Representative Stephanie was in Berlin for talks with German but it was firmly re-issued in an in- March there was only occasional with South African President Cyril Williams was the acting special en- Chancellor Merkel. terview Haftar had in February with shelling, nothing like the barrages Ramaphosa, chairman of the African voy indicates that no one had been The talks, which followed a visit Paris Match. If none of this hap- at the end of February that closed Union (AU). chosen. to Haftar in his headquarters outside pened, he warned, the LNA would Mitiga airport. In Pretoria at the same time, was “I don’t expect an appointment Benghazi on March 3 by French and ignore the United Nations and act However, with power cuts lasting US Ambassador to Libya Richard for some months,” said a senior local German officials, have been inter- alone, which is what it has been 8-10 hours a day because of a cold Norland. His presence there at the government official in Tripoli. “So, preted as a shift by Paris and Berlin effectively doing for the past 11 spell, more residents headed for same time as Sarraj, with whom he what does that mean for peace?” he towards Haftar and away from Sar- months. safety and normality in Tunisia, if met, was no coincidence. then asked. raj and the GNA. The talks have also Both sides are setting the thresh- only for short breaks. Their diplomatic moves came been considered a move to spite old for a ceasefire extremely After the sudden resignation of just before Ramaphosa travelled to Michel Cousins is a contributor to Turkey in response to its attempt to high, both imagining that they UN Special Envoy Ghassan Salame, the Republic of Congo for a meeting The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. 14 March 15, 2020 News & Analysis Lebanon Will Lebanon’s Eurobond default spur much- needed reform?

Simon Speakman Cordall Lebanon is one of the most in- debted countries in the world, ow- ing more than $90 billion, approxi- Tunis mately 170% of GDP. Official estimates in January stat- ebanon has defaulted on its ed that inflation was running at a international debts for the year-on-year rate of 10%. However, first time. Through civil war a leading consumer association told L and social and political tur- Bloomberg News that prices have moil, Lebanon had always met its risen 45% since October, affecting economic obligations. purchasing power at an “unprec- However, convulsed by a long- edented rate” as companies slash foreshadowed currency crisis and both jobs and pay. No immediate solution. Lebanese President Michel Aoun (C) leads a cabinet meeting at Baabda Palace (DPA) battered by the spread of coronavi- “Since around August of 2019 and near Beirut, March 12. rus, Lebanese Prime Minister Has- the dollar shortage at the banks, san Diab said in a televised address we’ve seen price hikes, a decline in value. Many people are taking a de country experiencing similar con- bailout and the measures it would March 7 that he was placing the consumer confidence and difficul- facto ‘haircut’ as their dollar-de- ditions would look to the Interna- require.” These are said to include needs of Lebanon’s citizens ahead ties in importing and pricing basic nominated accounts are translated tional Monetary Fund (IMF) for cutting bread subsidies, taxing fuel of its fiscal responsibilities. goods such as wheat and fuel,” said into lira at a devalued rate. support. An IMF delegation made and raising the value added tax. Kareem Chehayeb an investigative “Unfortunately, more pain lies a technical visit to Lebanon in Feb- However, by March 13, Hezbollah journalist at the Public Source, an ahead in the short to medium term ruary that it described as “very in- Secretary-General Hassan Nasral- Lebanon owes more than independent Lebanese media or- as austerity measures eventu- formative and productive.” lah appeared to accept the parlous $90 billion, approximately ganisation. ally are put in place following the However, in the absence of a state of Lebanon’s economy and 170% of GDP. Banks that remained open default.”“The medium- and long- credible economic plan, the IMF is seemed open to IMF involvement, throughout Lebanon’s 15-year civil term implications of the Eurobond unlikely to offer Lebanon the level providing that any mandated con- Announcing the country would war are now closing early, cutting default will very much depend on of support required to see it either ditions didn’t “violate the constitu- not be paying the $1.2 billion Eu- credit card limits and dramatically what measures and reforms Leba- through its present difficulties or to tion or the national interest.” robond due March 9 he said: “How curtailing the public’s access to the non undertakes following the de- fund the fiscal stabilisation fund — It is possible that the government can we pay the creditors while there country’s diminishing dollar sup- fault. Obviously, a default is never estimated by former Economy Min- may undertake reforms without are people in the streets without ply. good and Lebanon will necessarily ister Nasser Saidi to be around $20 IMF support, looking to cut spend- the money to buy a loaf of bread?” “As the conditions worsened, we pay a price in the markets for hav- billion — to underpin any reform ing and commence a longer-term Few were surprised by Diab’s saw mass layoffs and salary cuts,” ing failed to repay its debt,” she programme. plan of tax hikes without an inter- decision. Lebanon’s economy has Chehayeb said. “Couple that with added. Lebanon’s unique political cir- nationally funded stabilisation pro- been in decline for several years. an inflated black market exchange Yacoubian said there remained cumstances may impede any IMF gramme. Reports by the Financial Times in rate dominating the markets and the possibility that the default may bailout. The Iran-backed Hezbol- Credit ratings agency Fitch has 2011 suggested Lebanon’s reliance people’s lives have clearly wors- spur much-needed reform, which, lah, which wields strong influence suggested that Beirut might raid on domestic consumption and hard ened significantly.” while including austerity, should in the country’s government, is un- deposits and savings held by the currency remittances from the di- Mona Yacoubian, a senior ad- “include a shift towards greater likely to welcome what it would see country’s banks, a possibility the aspora placed its economy at risk. viser at the United States Institute transparency and accountabil- as a surrender of sovereignty over government has yet to rule out. Over the following years, corrup- of Peace, said: “Estimates already ity and measures to combat wide- any IMF bailout. However, even then it would need tion and mismanagement along indicate that as much as 50% of spread corruption, then the long- An analysis by the global risk con- to renegotiate its debt with interna- with Lebanon’s confessional sys- the population live below the pov- term prognosis for Lebanon is far sultancy HIS Markit after Lebanon’s tional creditors. tem of government produced an erty line. Many people have faced better as the economy will be on a default noted that Hezbollah “has economic crisis with no immediate layoffs and inflation is rising as the far more solid footing.” repeatedly expressed its opposition Simon Speakman Cordall is a solution. Lebanese pound continues to lose Under typical circumstances, a to an International Monetary Fund freelance writer.

Viewpoint Lebanon must look to new solutions to overcome crippling debt

2016 to Egypt has led to growth of while precious foreign exchange by previous governments to their determination… and around 5%, a primary fiscal pays to import diesel for small tackle corruption, combat tax strengthen their stance in surplus at 2% of GDP and unem- generators. evasion and curb the deficit. He restructuring negotiations with Gareth Smyth ployment at a 20-year low of Youth unemployment is 48%. promised a strategy for rejuve- external debt holders.” 8%. Children from poor backgrounds nating the productive economy, Daher pointed out that since There is a price, however. are leaving school, either to save including agriculture, industry, 2016 deposit holders in Lebanese ebanon’s politicians From 2015-19, the number of their parents money or to work information technology and banks have enjoyed a 31% return have long promised Egyptians in poverty increased in the informal sector. Haneen tourism. with a compounded annual magic. The latest tall from 28% to 33% of the popula- Sayed, human development Hezbollah parliamentary interest of 7%. Meanwhile, more story is a claim from tion, the currency shed half its specialist for Lebanon at the deputy Ali Mokdad posted on risk-averse Lebanese with Finance Minister Ghazi value and introducing a value- World Bank, estimated that 22% Twitter that the decision to holdings in European or US Wazni that the Inter- added tax and cutting fuel inflation and a GDP contraction default was “a bold and calcu- banks had a 1.5% average annual Lnational Monetary Fund can help subsidies fuelled 30% inflation. of 5% would double those in lated step to deal with the return. produce, through a loan-package Jordan and Tunisia have also extreme poverty from 10% to Eurobond, pending more However, 50% of all deposits or simply advice, a restructured accepted tough conditions — tax 20%. measures and reforms” but few in Lebanese banks — around $86 default that “includes no suffering increases, devaluation — for IMF The hardships inherent in any others are convinced. In a billion — sit in just 1% of or harsh measures to the Lebanese loans. restructuring require public statement, the activist group accounts. Daher asserts that a and doesn’t harm any side.” Such measures, often dubbed support but Lebanon’s authori- Taqadom reminded the “ruling 20% levy on this top 1% would Default, structured or not, “austerity,” can spark social ties — really, its entire political class” that such solutions had raise $16 billion. Although this isn’t the end of the world. unrest. With the announcement class — lack credibility. The been “available for years.” would boost government coffers, Countries survive. Argentina has it will not pay the $1.2 billion post-war edifice of patronage is And yet a sense of fairness is it would still be less than the $20 defaulted eight times; Venezuela Eurobond currently due, shattered. The government faces needed for public buy-in on billion received in bank interest twice this century. Although Lebanon heads into default with widespread public belief it will reforms that will come with by the “prime group” since 2016, Greece in 2015 choked and protesters already on the streets. do nothing but favour politicians reductions in living standards leaving them roughly on par defaulted on an International Demonstrations erupted four and those with political connec- and likely loss of government with those with deposits in Monetary Fund (IMF) loan, the months ago as the government tions. There is little transpar- jobs. One proposal ruled out by Europe and the United States. fund’s involvement can be tried to levy a mere 20-cent daily ency. Salame in January is a tax on A report from US credit rating effective. A $12 billion IMF loan in charge on WhatsApp voice In a televised address March bank deposits. Samir el-Daher, agency Fitch Solutions sug- messages. 7, Lebanese Prime Minister former World Bank official and gested the government may Successive governments Hassan Diab admitted that the an adviser to former Prime “muddle through,” possibly with failed to tackle growing social country’s foreign currency Minister Najib Mikati, coined the limited international support, The hardships and economic problems. reserves were at “a critical and term “national solidarity tax” in rather than implement a com- Lebanon’s population of 6 dangerous level,” thereby advocating a one-off measure to prehensive reform plan. Either inherent in any million has absorbed around 1.5 trashing repeated assurances tackle the fiscal crisis as part of a way, the Diab government will restructuring require million Syrian refugees. The from central bank Governor Riad wider egalitarian approach. struggle to convince the Leba- government’s deficit is equiva- Salame. Diab also put the state’s Daher floated the idea as an nese that the broadest backs will public support but lent to half its revenue but high debt at $90 billion, more than alternative to default but now bear the heaviest burdens. Lebanon’s authorities state spending has done nothing previously thought and at 170% says it could act as “a bold — really, its entire about a deteriorating infrastruc- of GDP — making Lebanon the quasi-fiscal measure as part of a Gareth Smyth is a regular ture with poor electricity and world’s most heavily indebted debt-restructuring package” contributor to The Arab Weekly. political class — lack water supplies. Electricite du country. through which “Lebanese He has reported from the Middle credibility. Liban loses $2 billion a year Diab repeated pledges made authorities would demonstrate East since 1992. March 15, 2020 15 News & Analysis Palestine Israel Interview Leading public opinion analyst sees ‘no change to occupation’ policies in Israeli post- election scenarios

a majority in terms of the coalition- Lieberman and probably together building process and that’s exactly with the Labour Party formed a what happened.” government of 47 seats out of 120 Sharmila Devi TAW: “Who might lead the next but they get sworn in with a vote of government?” confidence based on the [Palestin- DS: “I’ve quit predictions but I ian-Israeli led] Joint List vote as ahlia Scheindlin is a will go through the scenarios. well or part of the Joint List. leading public opinion Basically, the options are either a “It looks more likely mostly expert and political right-wing government formed by because the headlines have been consultant in Israel, Netanyahu, which starts with 58 flooded with rumours and hints a fellow at the Cen- seats and manages to pull three from Lieberman and Blue and tury Foundation and additional seats to reach 61 from White about how they might do Da writer at +972 magazine. She has some opposition parties. i t .” specialised in progressive causes, “The next option is a unity TAW: “Do you think a new Israeli political and social campaigns in coalition between Blue and White government will follow through on more than a dozen countries. and Likud, which would require promises to annex the Israeli-occu- Her work for local and interna- significant compromise on the part pied Palestinian West Bank?” tional organisations has dealt with of Netanyahu and so far he has DS: “There will be no change to Israeli-Palestinian conflict issues, been unwilling to do that because it the occupation. The question is human rights, peace-making, doesn’t look like Blue and White whether the expansion of the democracy, religious identity and will give up on its year-long occupation is delayed. internal social issues. demand for him not to be prime “If it was a Netanyahu-led She spoke with The Arab Weekly minister under indictment, which government, I believe he will a week after Israel had its third is the reason the country went into continue with annexation in national election in less than a year three election cycles. incremental, de facto ways on the that saw a Likud party-led coalition “Another option is that Avigdor ground and I believe he will of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Lieberman [leader of the secular undertake small incremental de Netanyahu win 58 seats, three and ultranationalist Yisrael Beitenu jure forms of annexation, probably short of the required 61-seat party] with his party of seven seats starting with a law to annex one majority needed to form a govern- joins the right-wing bloc where he settlement such as Maale Adumim ment. came from. It would have 65 seats, or follow through on the promise to More than one scenario. Leading public opinion expert Dahlia His opponents, led by Benny which is a clear majority, but build in E1, which is east of Scheindlin. (Courtesy Dahlia Scheindlin) Gantz, leader of the Blue and White Lieberman has insisted he won’t do Jerusalem and connects Maale alliance, control most of the seats it. Adumim. in parliament but are sharply “And the fourth scenario, which “I don’t think we’re going to see do have some very hard-right annexation, because they know all divided. Coalition talks could take right now looks like the more likely a law to annex the Jordan Valley ideologues in the party. they have to do is dig in on the several weeks. Netanyahu is to face option, is a minority government. tomorrow as he promised because “I think Blue and White would ground and one day not too far off trial March 17. He has been charged A minority government means that it’s too politically sensitive but he probably continue some version of (Palestinian President Mahmoud with fraud, breach of trust and Blue and White together with will continue in the direction he’s the status quo without really Abbas) Abu Mazen [will be gone]. accepting bribes. He denies any been going in for the last ten years, calling it anything. It will depend “I cannot see any clear line of wrongdoing. which is definitely increasing on who the next American presi- succession. The names that crop up The Arab Weekly (TAW): “Was “There will be no annexation on the ground in small dent is but it’s very hard to tell as possible successors hold very the election result a surprise?” change to the legal ways. what they would do differently little legitimacy. There is a political Dahlia Scheindlin (DS): “Not occupation. The “If Ganz manages to form a from Likud other than rhetorically, process but I don’t believe it will be really, the most predictable result minority government it will be hard I think they would dial back the implemented and there are armed was an unclear result. The polls question is whether for any minority government to maximalist rhetoric.” factions who will compete for were extremely stable throughout the expansion of the pass any significant legislation. Of TAW: “How do you see Palestin- power. It will be chaos that will give the entire course of the campaign. occupation is delayed.” course, if it’s annexation legislation ian politics?” Israel more excuses to just take Basically, since September, the the right would support them but I DS: “Their politics are a total more control.” polls were so stable that it was think they would be cautious even mess as well. Sometimes I think the frustrating for a pollster because Leading public opinion more than [Netanyahu] about Israelis are dragging out making a Sharmila Devi is a former British they showed Likud and Blue and expert Dahlia passing legislation to annex big, decision about anything in the correspondent in the Middle East White running almost neck and clear parts of the territory. It’s not Palestinian territories for as long as and writes on political and social neck. The polls showed no one had Scheindlin really their agenda although they they can, including waiting on issues in the region.

Viewpoint Coronavirus does not distinguish between Palestinians and Jews

first MP to catch the virus was Palestinian territories and Israel. a Palestinian worker from the could be treated by an Israeli Nadine Dorries, ironically a The coronavirus has infected occupied West Bank or East doctor in Haifa. health minister in Prime Minister both Israelis and Palestinians in Jerusalem. They may fear the other but Kamel Hawwash Boris Johnson’s government. almost equal measure. It did not Even in Israel’s self-declared often rely on each other for There has been a debate about see Jewish Israelis as more capital Jerusalem, the coronavi- support and can see each other as whether Johnson should be superior to Palestinian Arabs and rus will not distinguish between equal. However, the ideology of he World Health tested because Dorries and therefore to be avoided. East and West Jerusalem or Zionism does not see Jews and Organisation has Johnson attended the same Israel insisted on citizens between a Jewish, Christian or Palestinians as equal and rabbis declared the corona- reception a few days earlier. arriving at Ben Gurion Airport be Muslim worshipper. Its victim is often talk of non-Jews as virus outbreak a pan- The virus could cross the committed to two weeks of any human being who crosses its “goyim,” a lesser human being. demic and the group’s House of Commons to infect house quarantine. It barred path. This was reinforced by the Director-General Labour, Liberal Democrat or travellers from several countries While a rabbi, a priest or an passing of Israel’s Nation-State TTedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Scottish National Party MPs from entering and was consider- imam may pray for his flock’s Law in 2018, which gave Jews the noting that the number of cases because it does not discriminate ing expanding that to all coun- protection from the virus, the right of self-determination in outside China increased 13-fold in between House members on the tries, having seen the number of coronavirus will be unperturbed Israel (whose borders are not two weeks, said he was “deeply basis of political affiliation party, coronavirus cases rise to 97. by one more than it is by another. declared) but not non-Jews. The concerned” by “alarming levels of gender or sexual orientation. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin The coronavirus could strike a non-Jews include Israel’s 20% inaction” over the virus. Viruses do not discriminate Netanyahu banned indoor Muslim on Friday, a Jew on Palestinian citizens and if taken Apart from China, Italy’s between people and they gatherings of more than 100 Saturday and a Christian on together 6 million Palestinians in action was perhaps the most certainly cross the floor of a people. Sunday. It has no respect for holy historic Palestine. It gave Jews draconian, effectively placing 62 parliament from government The Palestinian Authority days. across the world the right of million residents under lock- benches to opposition placed all of Bethlehem under This should provide Palestin- return but not Palestinian down to slow the spread of the benches. quarantine after seven tourists at ian and Israeli religious and refugees, expelled in 1948 and disease, which saw 200 people The virus outbreak, which the same hotel tested positive for political leaders with food for since then. die in a 24-hour period. started in China, crossed borders the coronavirus. It decided to thought. At the end of the day, a If peace is to come to the Holy In the United Kingdom, the and landed in countries thou- close schools and universities for Jew, Christian or Muslim bleeds, Land, Palestinian Muslims and sands of kilometres apart, a month. cries and laughs in the same way. Christians and on the other side extending the above analogy that There have been at least 29 They could give each other Israeli Jews must see each other it does not discriminate between confirmed coronavirus cases in blood, body organs and bone as equal human beings who will Even in Israel’s its victims and it does not see a the Palestinian territories. One of marrow and actually do so. They inhabit the holy land for decades self-declared capital victim from one developed the latest cases was in the like each other’s food and to come. It is time for freedom, Jerusalem, the country as superior to another northern town of Tulkarem. The culture, even if they do so justice and equality to become a from a developing country. This patient is said to have contracted secretly. reality and for the coronavirus to coronavirus will not is confirmed by the fact the two the virus in Israel. A Jewish Israeli is likely to be be defeated by all. distinguish between major centres of the outbreak Again, this demonstrates that treated by a doctor of Palestinian outside China are Italy and the virus does not distinguish origin at Hadassah Hospital and Kamel Hawwash is a Britain- East and West Iran. between Jewish Israeli or indeed when a Palestinian from Gaza based Palestinian university Jerusalem. The same has been seen in the a Palestinian citizen of Israel and needs specialist treatment he professor and writer. 16 March 15, 2020 Viewpoint Turkey Erdogan’s invocation of Ottoman history fools no one

soldiers in Erdogan’s wars in Libya and Syria, the illusions of past glories carefully constructed by Baha al-Awam the great magician came tumbling down. The Turks are not buying it anymore and demand that their urkish President sultan stops using this sham to Recep Tayyip Erdogan justify his foreign military adven- likened the Greeks tures and to refrain from shedding to the Nazis for the any more Turkish blood in causes violence the Greeks that the Turks don’t believe in. practised against On the contrary, they yearn for Tmigrants who crossed from Tur- greater openness and more inte- key seeking asylum. Some Jews gration with the world. Many still of Athens pointed out that the dream of joining the European modern-day sultan was merely Union. They’re looking for the attempting to mislead Western freedom to travel and to seek em- public opinion by hiding the truth ployment opportunities. They’re that he was trading with human dreaming of improving their lives for political gain. country’s economy and of having The response was sufficient to the best relations with all coun- expose Erdogan’s blackmailing of tries in the East and the West. Europe. Nothing, however, seems By trying to revisit the Ottoman sufficient to stop the Turkish pres- past, Erdogan not only failed to ident from frequently summoning rally Turkish public opinion to up history to justify his foreign support his foreign wars but he policy debacles and his interven- provided ammunition for the op- tion in neighbouring countries position. Many Turkish historians, and the rest of the region. researchers and politicians op- Before bringing up German posed to autocratic rule are calling Nazism to qualify the violence on Erdogan to stop being selective used by Greece to repel the waves in interpreting the history of the of illegal migrants, Erdogan used Ottoman Empire because the Ot- Not a peace track. Family members attend a funeral ceremony in Ankara, March 1, for one of the the history of the Ottoman Empire toman era included many failures, Turkish soldiers killed in Idlib. (AP) to find justifications for his inva- massacres, defeats and betrayals sions of Libya and Syria. The new that the Turks, before the rest of sultan dug into what he saw as the the world, see as a disgrace. Erdogan’s abuse of the historical With respect to Libya, the Bank of Libya taking a one-way golden age of his ancestors who Erdogan’s story with history record to promote his wars and sultan stood before whatever was trip to Ankara. had occupied the Arab region for did not end there. His constant foreign adventures reflects politi- left of his supporters in the Jus- The conclusion is that the Turk- hundreds of years, hoping to find references to the glorious days of cal frustration and bankruptcy. It tice and Development Party and ish occupation does not differ the rare gems that would per- the Ottomans angered the peoples exposes his bet on a narrow group recalled Ottoman leaders killed from the Ottoman occupation 500 suade the Turks that his military in many countries who resent of supporters inside Turkey and trying to occupy that African years ago: It’s all about spoils and adventures abroad aim to revive Erdogan’s ambitions. followers in the Arab region. country. has no moral, legal, humanitarian the past glory of their ancestors In many parts of the Arab world, In Turkey, Erdogan has rallied It’s always the same story. or religious justification. who ruled over an empire feared Ottomans are perceived as occupi- to his cause mainly his family, Erdogan raises storms of enthusi- At the recent summit that by all and that extended over ers rather than successors to a far- relatives and his cronies from the asm in the hearts of his support- brought together the Russian and countries in at least three conti- flung Islamic empire. Erdogan’s world of business who are betting ers by summoning the heroes of Turkish presidents in Moscow to nents. opponents in European countries on the success of the Erdogan- the Ottoman past but, when the discuss the Idlib crisis in Syria, With the first deaths of Turkish and the West took advantage of ian conquests to reap the spoils storms subside and the coffins of the Russians deliberately sur- his Ottoman rhetoric to rally peo- and establish economic colonies, the Turkish soldiers start arriving rounded Erdogan with paintings, ple against him. money empires and invest- in Turkey, the real motives for the sculptures and works of art di- One of the obvious results of ment portfolios. As for the Arab Erdogan’s wars emerge. rectly related to the shameful side By trying to revisit the the anti-Erdogan mobilisation was countries, it is only the converts Recently, Erdogan revealed of the Ottoman past so dear to the the recognition by the legislatures to political Islam, headed by the that he offered Russian President sultan. The Kremlin’s messages Ottoman past, of many countries around the Muslim Brotherhood, who sing Vladimir Putin the management were clear and they’re backed by Erdogan has not only world of the Armenian massa- the praises of the new Ottoman of the Syrian oil fields in Deir ez- a sizeable body of evidence from failed to rally Turkish cre committed by the Ottomans expansion. Zor. Soon after, a Turkish official history books pointing out that during World War I. The latest to In Erdogan’s wars, the Turkish announced an increase in the wherever the Ottomans passed, public opinion to his recognise the massacre of the Ar- Army invaded Syria several times, volume of Turkish investments devastation followed. There is a foreign wars but also menians was none other than the with operations whose names and in Libya to $120 billion. This is in lesson to be learnt here, for time homeland of US President Donald dates were chosen clearly refer- addition to reports of Libya’s gold does not repeat itself. provided ammunition Trump, who takes great pride in ring to the Ottoman occupation being smuggled to Turkey and to the opposition. his friendship with Erdogan. of Syria. about the balance of the Central Baha al-Awam is a Syrian writer. Low number of reported coronavirus cases in Turkey raises eyebrows

t’s worth noting that If anybody, Turkish doctors in Turkey by an authorised private will be closed for up to three weeks Arsenal now has as should know the truth. I talked to company funded by governmen- starting March 16. Spectators will many reported cases doctors who pointed out that the tal institutional grants… Existing be barred from sports events and Yavuz Baydar of COVID-19 as Turkey. well-established Turkish Medical conventional PCR testing might parliament will be closed to visi- “ Juventus has more.” Association requested permission take about 24 hours. Turkey claims tors. This ironic social to mobilise mass testing of citizens its test is the fastest and the most Whether these measures prove mediaI commentary made earlier across Anatolia. However, since accurate test in the world.” to be half-hearted remains to be in March summarised what many the organisation is seen as opposi- “Also, until today, those tests seen. It is well-known that in a concerned Turkish citizens — ap- tional and far too autonomous for were all performed at a central predominantly Islamic country, parently a minority — were asking the government, its requests were testing facility; every hospital sent with a population exceeding 80 themselves about whether their ignored. samples to the nation’s capital. To million, one of the main potential government, reputed for arrogant This was enough to raise eye- date, Turkey has done about 2,500 public risk spaces are the mosques. non-transparency, was once more brows, said a doctor who works at tests. The lack of any identified Sociologically, Turkey stands out as engaged in a massive cover-up over the American Hospital and who, cases provoked suspicion because a place — with more than 100,000 the spread of COVID-19. out of safety concerns, asked to if the test is negative, there was imams (on state payroll) and as At the time of writing this article, remain anonymous. no other way to prove that the test many mosques — where public Turkish Health Ministry officials Unlike the situation in many might be positive,” he said. prayers gather very large masses, had declared just two confirmed other countries, doctors in Turkey Another doctor, apparently almost to the point of fetishisation. cases of coronavirus. Turks’ natural pointed out the core matter that frustrated over the lack of coopera- Turkey’s mighty Diyanet (the confusion is therefore justified, es- explains the air of hush-hush is tion between the government and Directorate of Religious Affairs) pecially when their eastern neigh- the monopoly the Turkish state private hospitals, said: “These tests ignored expectations to shut down bour, Iran, has more than 8,000 holds on the testing process and raise suspicion because we have the mosques as part of the meas- Doctors in Turkey cases of COVID-19 and is one of the its draconian control over hospital no way of verifying whether those ures. This is a cause for concern but peak countries of the pandemic. records. tests were done on COVID-19 kits or not surprising. pointed out the core Most people in Turkey are in “Thus far, Turkey has been using kits on some other diseases.” During such a time when the rest matter that explains the dark because of state control its own virus detection (real-time However, given that the Interna- of the world is considering how to of the media. Until very late, even PCR) kits,” said Dr Ergin Kocyildi- tional Monetary Fund announced cope with this global disaster, Tur- the air of hush-hush is the so-called alternative media rim, a heart surgeon and assistant a large budget to combat the virus key, along with many other Islamic the monopoly the did not seem to grasp the gravity professor at the University of Pitts- and following the World Health countries, is facing a test on sound Turkish state holds on of the pandemic, focusing on the burgh’s School of Medicine in the Organisation’s declaration that this reasoning. They will probably fail tumultuous political stage instead. United States is a global pandemic, some steps this test, possibly until they must the testing process This collective failure to inform Writing for the international announced by the Turkish govern- face the harder truth. and its draconian the public may eventually be seen affairs magazine published by the ment are seen as positive. Follow- as the cause, should coronavirus Centre for the National Interest, ing the suspension of flights from Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish control over hospital cases rise geometrically. Kocyildirim added: “Those kits Italy, Iran and China and a border journalist and regular columnist for records. What is the reality? are produced and manufactured closure with Iran, Turkish schools The Arab Weekly. March 15, 2020 17 News & Analysis Iran Epidemic (mis)management reflects Iran’s parallel structure of political power

Ali Alfoneh

ranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speculating about coronavirus being a “biological attack,” issued a decree establishing the “Health and Treatment IHeadquarters” under the supervi- sion of Major-General Mohammad Bagheri, Iranian armed forces chief-of-staff. That came just days after Khamenei reportedly designated Iranian President Hassan Rohani to lead the fight against the corona- virus outbreak. Rohani said the health minister, and not the presi- dent, was in charge of the govern- ment’s effort. The latest issue of Khat-e Hezbollah weekly, the supreme leader’s official mouthpiece, hailed the “peerless” Khamenei as the strategic leader in the fight against all crises, including the coronavi- rus pandemic. Who is in charge of Iran’s fight against the coronavirus outbreak? The armed forces’ chief-of-staff, the president, the health minister or the supreme leader? Official reports stated that, as of March 13, COVID-19 had claimed the lives of 439 Iranians, 10,000 were infected and 3,376 cured. The actual numbers may be signifi- cantly higher and there is no doubt Iran is hit harder than most other countries. Domino effect. Ali Akbar Velayati, adviser to the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gives a news conference, in Tehran, It is therefore expected that January 20. (AP) Tehran chooses a whole govern- ment approach in containing, or at least slowing, the pandemic while expanding capacity to treat the That the parallel structure results test kits, respirators and tle — and later the blame — for the have had physical contact with infected. in the waste of scarce resources hospital beds. inadequate government response Khamenei in the past few weeks However, not even a pandemic and significantly lessens the ef- Rather than getting involved and the rising death toll. In the meantime, Khamenei causes Khamenei to change his bad ficacy of the government response in that fight, Rohani washes his It’s all too obvious that the spreads the fake news of the coro- old habits. to crises is of less importance than hands and lets others take the bat- Iranian public will pay the price navirus being a “biological attack” Just as everywhere else in the securing Khamenei’s central posi- for the Islamic Republic’s paral- and media outlets close to him or Islamic Republic government bu- tion in the power structure lel institutions and the ineffective the IRGC fabricate stories about the reaucracy, Khamenei is establish- Used to Khamenei’s well-known government response but, this virus being produced in a labora- ing two parallel institutions with political machinations, it is no Mismanagement, time around, Khamenei’s manage- tory in the United States. overlapping fields of responsibility wonder that Rohani insisted the rial style is also affecting the ruling However, the fact remains that and an unclear chain of command. hapless Dr Saeed Namaki, Iran’s parallel institutions elites of the country, including mismanagement, parallel institu- Existence of parallel institutions health minister, is the person in with overlapping some of his own advisers. tions with overlapping responsi- prevent concentration of decision- charge of the fight against the responsibilities and Ali Akbar Velayati, former for- bilities and lies remain some of the making authority, and thereby pandemic. Namaki will soon eign minister and Khamenei’s for- most lethal enemies of Iran and power, in one institution and come under fire from the Islamic lies remain some of eign policy adviser since 1997, has Iranians. the constant inter-agency rivalry Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) the most lethal been diagnosed with the virus and between the two makes both de- and its new Health and Treatment is quarantined. So is Esmaeil Naj- Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at pendent on Khamenei as the final Headquarters as the IRGC and the enemies of Iran and jar, chief of Iran’s Crisis Manage- the Arab Gulf States Institute in arbiter of disputes. Health Ministry start fighting over Iranians. ment Organisation. Both men may Washington. Spotlight returns to Iran’s nuclear programme

Agence France-Presse drawal from the agreement in 2018 tion other work required to produce directly relate to Iran’s current pro- agency, answering its questions and reimposition of harsh sanctions a weapon. gramme. The amounts of material and allowing inspections at the two on Iran. Moreover, the IAEA’s extensive concerned are not significant and locations. Grossi insisted requests Vienna An IAEA report issued March 3 monitoring of Iran’s current nu- the agency’s queries should not be for access were based on validated said the announcement itself did clear activities — often cited as an difficult to answer, diplomats said. “agency information.” ehran’s nuclear programme not lead to noticeable changes but achievement of the 2015 deal — con- “I’m sure that if they got access is back under the spotlight revealed the cumulative effect of tinues. to these sites, they wouldn’t find Have there been other tensions? after the United Nations’ Iran’s previous breaches. much,” said Francois Nicoullaud, a In October, an IAEA inspector was T nuclear watchdog revealed There has been a dramatic in- Recent revelations may former French ambassador to Iran. briefly prevented from leaving Iran “The IAEA is a technical agency so the extent of Iran’s uranium enrich- crease in Iran’s uranium stockpile, lead to heated exchanges at after authorities said she triggered ment drive and reprimanded it for which stands at more than 1,000 it has the obligation to clear up this an alarm at the Natanz uranium en- denying access to two locations. kilograms — more than five times the International Atomic question” and the agency “doesn’t richment plant. The IAEA said the The revelations may lead to heat- the limit fixed in the deal. Centri- Energy Agency’s quarterly have much room for manoeuvre,” incident was “not acceptable.” ed exchanges at the International fuges being used for enrichment board of governors he said. Disputes over the inspector and Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) are also more numerous and more meeting, which started Nevertheless, Iran reacted sharp- the agency’s unanswered questions quarterly board of governors meet- advanced than foreseen under the March 10 in Vienna. ly, telling the IAEA that it does “not highlighted potential friction be- ing, which started March 10 in Vi- deal. recognise any allegation on past ac- tween the IAEA and Iran. enna. Experts said the developments Iran insists its nuclear programme tivities.” In a subsequent statement At a special IAEA board meet- mean Iran’s “breakout time” — the is purely for civilian ends. Iran said “intelligence services’ ing in November, Iran warned the Which limits is Iran breaking? period needed to acquire the weap- fabricated information… creates no agency — and unnamed member Since May 2019, Iran has an- ons-grade fissile material for a bomb Why were two inspections obligation for Iran to consider such states — to avoid “aggrandising” is- nounced breaches of the deal struck — may well have been reduced to a refused? requests” and accused the United sues unnecessarily, adding that this four years earlier with world pow- matter of months. The 2015 deal In a second report, the IAEA repri- States and Israel of trying to pres- could “have a detrimental effect on ers that restricted its nuclear pro- was meant to ensure the breakout manded Iran for barring inspections sure the IAEA. ongoing cooperation.” gramme in exchange for sanctions time was at least a year. at two sites. They are among three Israel claimed that information In January, in a move that added relief. The latest announcement Diplomats cautioned that none locations about which the IAEA said obtained by its intelligence services to the strained atmosphere, the Eu- came in January, when Iran said it of the current stockpile is enriched it had questions over “possible un- contains details on a previous Ira- ropean parties to the 2015 accord was no longer bound by any restric- beyond 4.5%, with much of it at a declared nuclear material and nu- nian nuclear weapons programme. — France, Germany and the United tions on its nuclear programme. lower level than that. It would need clear-related activities.” IAEA Director General Rafael Kingdom — initiated the deal’s dis- The breaches were in reaction to to be enriched to approximately Diplomatic sources said the ac- Grossi, on March 10, urged Iran to pute resolution mechanism in pro- US President Donald Trump’s with- 90% for use in a bomb, not to men- tivities date to the 2000s and do not “immediately” cooperate with the test of Iran’s breaches. 18 March 15, 2020 News & Analysis East West Erdogan courts the West as Russia ties show signs of strain

Thomas Seibert Erdogan hammered out the new ceasefire deal for Idlib during a meet- ing March 5 with Russian President Istanbul Vladimir Putin but the agreement forced Turkey to accept recent ter- espite recent sharp ex- ritorial gains by the Russia-backed changes with European Syrian Army. Turkish state media leaders about the refugee said the Syrian side has violated the Dissue, Turkish President truce but joint Turkish-Russian pa- Recep Tayyip Erdogan is starting to trols in Idlib were to begin March 15. repair relations with the West, as An- The Turkish leader said on March kara’s ties with Russia show further 11 that Turkey, which has backed signs of strain. some Syrian rebel groups, would not Humble vibes. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) stands with European Council President Erdogan travelled to EU headquar- shy away from more military action Charles Michel, March 9. (AP) ters in Brussels for the first time in in Idlib if the ceasefire was broken. years and announced a summit with A Turkish official said March 13 that the leaders of Germany and France “necessary intervention” would be peared to view itself in a strong posi- most of Syria’s eastern oil regions. through for several days after Erdog- for March 18 in Istanbul. made against groups aiming to vio- tion towards Turkey. Russia expect- While he is looking for a new an’s announcement of open borders. Even though the new migra- late the ceasefire, Reuters reported. ed “that the humiliating show will agreement with the European Un- Turkey hosts some 4 million refu- tion crisis, triggered after Erdogan Anti-Russian feelings in Turkey be unrequited and Ankara wouldn’t ion to replace a 2016 deal that said gees — most of them Syrians — and opened Turkey’s western borders were fanned by the broadcast of be able to respond strongly.” Turkey would get more than $6 bil- is demanding greater EU assistance for migrants attempting to reach a video on Russian television that Erdogan said he asked Putin to lion in aid in return for a pledge to in dealing with the conflict in Syria Europe, remained unresolved, the showed a tense-looking Erdogan jointly manage oil fields in eastern stop Syrian refugees from crossing and its humanitarian consequences. Turkish leader said a “new era” in and his delegation left waiting in a Syria’s Deir ez-Zor region in place of to EU member Greece, Erdogan said European leaders have held open relations between Turkey and the side room of the Kremlin before be- the Kurdish-led forces, which con- he would not close the border again the possibility of additional financial European Union was possible. ing received by Putin. trol them now. He said Putin was for refugees. His decision to open aid for Turkey but warned that no The United States, keen to exploit Talking on his way back to Turkey evaluating the offer. He said he could the gates February 28 sparked sharp money would be forthcoming while the growing rift between Turkey and from Brussels, Erdogan called the make the same offer to US President criticism from Europe but Erdogan Turkey kept its western border open Russia over Syria, said it was discuss- widely shared video an example of Donald Trump. has kept to his position in an appar- for migrants. ing with its NATO allies what they “media manipulation” but said the ent effort to retain bargaining power Erdogan’s government said Anka- can offer Turkey in terms of military clip would not hurt Turkish-Russian in upcoming talks with EU leaders. ra wants a commitment by the Euro- assistance in the Syrian province of relations. Even though the new Erdogan also kept up his tough pean Union to allow Turks visa-free Idlib and discussing measures that Kerim Has, a Moscow-based ex- migration crisis remained rhetoric, accusing Greek border travel in Europe and to update the may be taken if Russia and the Syr- pert on Turkish-Russian relations, unresolved, the Turkish guards of using “Nazi” methods customs union between Turkey and ian government break a ceasefire said the video on a Russian state leader said a “new era” in against refugees. the European Union. there. channel had been a “disrespectful relations between Turkey Tens of thousands of refugees, “We will come together in Istanbul “We are looking at what NATO can message” sent with full knowledge and the European Union was many from Afghanistan and Syria, next Tuesday” with German Chan- do,” James Jeffrey, the US special of the Russian leadership. “The possible. drove to the border after Erdogan’s cellor Angela Merkel and French envoy for Syria, said during a con- Kremlin knew about the show,” Has February decision but Greek border President Emmanuel Macron, Er- ference call briefing from Brussels said via e-mail. police have prevented most of them dogan said while en route from Brus- where he was meeting with allies. “The publication of such a video Deir ez-Zor province is south of from entering their country. sels, the Anadolu news agency said. Jeffrey ruled out the use of ground shows how much Russia is annoyed a 30km border zone that Turkish The number of refugees at the Erdogan said it would be a four- troops should the ceasefire in Idlib at Turkish President Erdogan’s latest troops captured in October from the land border dropped significantly in party summit if British Prime Min- be broken and repeated that Ankara threats against Syrian and indirectly Kurdish People’s Protection Units the last two weeks. In the Aegean, ister Boris Johnson was able to join needed to clarify its stance on pur- [against] Russian counterparts on (YPG) militia, which Turkey says is the Turkish Coast Guard is stopping the talks. There was no confirmation chase of the Russian S-400 air de- the Idlib issue,” Has said. a terrorist group threatening its se- boats with refugees from crossing to of the meeting from Berlin, Paris or fence system. Has added that the Kremlin ap- curity. The US-backed YPG controls Greek islands, after having let them London.

Viewpoint Erdogan tripping up in cross wires of foreign policy contradictions

from March 2019 stated. projects of questionable economic against remnants of the Islamic Erdogan abstained from his usual Ankara accused the Europeans value. State, than protecting Syrian civil- crude and threatening language. of failing to keep up their end of the Europeans would be more will- ians. Erdogan does not make any Indeed, there was not even a news Francis Ghilès bargain regarding visa liberalisation ing to listen to Erdogan, as would secret of his support for hard-line conference. In Moscow, a few days and demanded that funds be di- NATO, if he did not resort to intem- Islamic groups, be it in Syria or before, Erdogan was kept waiting rectly disbursed to the government. perate language. An example is the elsewhere. by Russian President Vladimir Pu- he arrival in 2015 of The European Union also failed claim made March 10 that “there is This puts him at odds with the tin. Maybe he is eating humble pie. more than 1 million to deliver on its targets to resettle no difference between those images United States, NATO, the EU Com- Erdogan’s policies in Syria have mainly Syrian migrants refugees from Turkey. on the Greece border and what the mission, Syria and Tunisia. Backed left the Turkish head of state very on Europe’s shores The European Union might not Nazis did.” by its western neighbour, Tunisian isolated. He cannot snarl at Putin, prompted European have fully honoured its part of the Erdogan constantly tries to President Kais Saied reportedly US President Donald Trump, French governments, led by agreement — and European Com- play the United States, Russia, the turned down Erdogan’s request two President Emmanuel Macron and TGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel, mission President Ursula von der European Union, the Syrian regime months ago for access to a base in von der Leyen all at once. Hubris to strike a $6.7 billion cash and re- Leyen admitted as much when she and the Gulf monarchies against southern Tunisia that would help has its limits and Erdogan is begin- settlement scheme with the Turkish met with Turkish President Recep one another. His decision to feed him deploy military forces in Libya. ning to look slightly ridiculous on government. Tayyip Erdogan on March 10 in Syrian Turkmen, Chechens and Turkey is playing so many the international stage. Under the deal, known as the EU- Brussels — but von der Leyen said European jihadists of North African geopolitical games across so many After playing the cool respon- Turkey Statement, refugees arriving the European Union was prepared origin into the Libyan conflict has boards that it is tripping up in cross sible statesman in Moscow and at Europe’s frontiers were system- to discuss “where support might be not gone down well with NATO or wires of contradictions that it can- Brussels, Erdogan could not prevent atically turned back and housed in needed and what is the right basis the commission. The United States not solve. Erdogan faces mounting himself from uttering another hol- Turkey. Ankara was promised that to start a dialogue.” is furious at his buying of Rus- opposition to his policies at home, low threat as soon as he touched around 70,000 refugees would be She refrained from accusing sian anti-missile defence systems, including from former founding down in Ankara — he will retaliate resettled from Turkey to the rest of Erdogan of formally breaking the which are incompatible with NATO members of his Justice and Devel- in Syria if the truce painstakingly Europe that year. terms of the deal. Despite his fre- systems. Many Western officials opment Party. Major Turkish cities agreed in Moscow is broken. Disbursements were made to quent threats, Erdogan is anxious wonder whether Turkey is still a voted in favour of the opposition in The Turks, who are a proud peo- around 100 projects rather than giv- to renew his arrangements with the member of NATO. last year’s municipal elections, de- ple, hardly relish the sight of their ing payments directly to the Turk- European Union but European gov- Nor has the Turkish leader’s ad- spite the president forcing a second president making a fool of himself ish government. Three years after ernments are facing a post-Brexit venturist policy in northern Syrian vote in Istanbul. on the international stage and the deal, irregular arrivals were funding squeeze on how to finance gone down well in Paris, Washing- Erdogan may gamble that he Erdogan’s bark is increasingly worse 97% lower than in the period before their next long-term budget. ton or Berlin. Erdogan claims he can pressure the European Union than his bite. the deal, an EU Commission report Frontex border patrols might be is protecting more than 1 million because the latter is distracted by Erdogan may or may not have short of cash yet the commission Syrians caught in a trap in Idlib the coronavirus outbreak. He may begun to realise that jaw-jaw is of knows that “populist” parties stand province between Syrian regime gamble that he can pressure the greater benefit to him than war-war. to gain if the flow of migrants is not troops, strongly backed by the Rus- European Union in Libya. He may If that is the case, and we are far Erdogan may or may stopped. sian Air Force, which can outgun think that the oil price war between from being sure it is, that would be Turkey hosts more than 4 million its Turkish counterpart and Turkish the Saudis and the Russians will of benefit to a region wracked by not have begun to refugees, not all of them Syrian. Its troops, which occupy an increas- help him because it lowers the price any number of crises. realise that jaw-jaw is economy is not in good shape, not ingly narrow buffer in Syria. of oil and gas, both of which Turkey of greater benefit to least because of Erdogan’s populist Turkish troops have spent most imports. Francis Ghilès is an associate moves and a propensity to fuel defi- of their time hunting Kurdish It is noticeable that, after his fellow at the Barcelona Centre for him than war-war. cits and inflation through massive forces, the key element in the fight meeting with von der Leyen, International Affairs. March 15, 2020 19 Viewpoint East West

Viewpoint US keeping thousands of military personnel in Mideast despite announced drawdowns

The second incident, which occurred March 11, involved a Gregory barrage of Katyusha rockets fired Aftandilian at a base in Taji, Iraq, that killed two US military personnel and one Briton. The base in Taji hosts ince the spring of 2019, coalition personnel training and when Iran ramped up advising the Iraqi Army. its aggressive behav- Although the first incident iour in the Gulf, the was unlikely to have involved US Central Command Iran, as ISIS is opposed to the increased by 20,000 Shia clerical regime in Tehran, Sthe number of military person- the second may have had an nel in the region, reaching about Iranian hand in it. An unidenti- Complex quagmire. Russian and Syrian soldiers and other people gather next to an American 80,000 in January. fied US defence official, speaking military convoy stuck in the village of Khirbet Ammu, east of Qamishli city, Syria, last February. (AP) The United States’ killing to CNN, said the United States of Iranian al-Quds Force com- would go after the perpetrators, mander Major-General Qassem adding that it was likely that Soleimani in January and Iran’s Iran-backed militants or Iran’s Is- retaliatory strikes against US lamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Washington downsizes military personnel at al-Asad Air were behind the attacks, based Base west of Baghdad, which re- on weapons and tactics used. sulted in no deaths but about 100 Testifying before the US Con- injuries, shortly thereafter made gress the day before, McKenzie Syria policy but bridge to for a very tense period. said, in reference to the sporadic About 1,000 US combat troops rocket attacks, that even though from the US Army 82nd Airborne such attacks had not resulted in Division were immediately US casualties thus far, “that luck deployed to Kuwait after the is not going to hold out forever.” Damascus is still too far Soleimani killing, along with This was a prescient remark. a US Navy aircraft carrier and other warships carrying a US In a good, honest summary of of 9/11 also includes the Tali- Marines expeditionary unit to today’s US policy, US President ban, who hosted al-Qaeda as it the Gulf, plus the deployment of Events and threats Donald Trump’s Syria envoy planned the strikes on New York jet fighter squadrons. from ISIS and Iran will Geoffrey Aronson James Jeffrey prefers not to and the Pentagon and continues This show of force, said Cen- dwell on the “starving babies” to battle to defeat Washington’s tral Command commander US likely mean that tens produced by the latest round of squabbling favourites in Kabul. Marine Corps General Kenneth of thousands of US atching US fighting. One would think the Trump McKenzie, speaking in late Janu- troops will remain in policy in Idlib “This is a humanitarian White House could also summon ary, was intended to restore “de- unfold is not catastrophe,” he acknowledged a similar realpolitikal will to end terrence” and to send a signal to the Arab countries a pretty sight recently, “but it’s far more than its losing war against the regime Iran that, while the United States and the Gulf for the and not just that. It is a dangerous geostrate- in Damascus. However, even as does not seek war with Tehran, because of gic escalation.” it makes an uncomfortable peace neither should Iran “seek war foreseeable future. Wthe humanitarian catastrophe How, then, is the Trump with HTS and the Taliban, a deal with us.” and weaponisation of refugees administration confronting this with Assad remains a bridge too While McKenzie stated he Whether Iran has direct “com- that define this latest chapter in strategic challenge to US inter- far. hoped for a de-escalation of the mand and control” over such mi- Syria’s war. ests across the world? Washington denigrates the crisis, he emphasised that “we litia attacks is an open question. The Trump administration’s Since the destruction of the Russian-led effort to defeat HTS have the capability to defend McKenzie has expressed the idea Syria policy is trapped by its World Trade Centre in New and its like-minded friends rul- ourselves and to inflict sig- in congressional testimony that, contradictory impulses. Hav- York on 9/11, the battle against ing an ever-shrinking piece of nificant pain on [the Iranians] while Iran can “certainly direct ing famously, if prematurely, “Islamic terror” has been at the north-western Syria. It suggests should they choose” to escalate attacks in Iraq,” it “may not be demanded that “Assad must go,” heart of US foreign and defence that, even as Washington spares the situation. able to prevent attacks from oc- Washington now professes its policy. Washington says it is in al-Qaeda so it may continue the By late February, there were curring in Iraq.” down-sized goal in Syria as “a Syria as part of this forever war. fight against Damascus, Moscow no further Iranian attacks on US There seem to be two schools political solution with a compro- However, in what can only be exploits its presence as an excuse personnel, though there were of thought about Iran’s inten- mise result.” described as an extraordinary to terrorise long-suffering Syr- periodic rocket attacks on Iraqi tions. One theory is that Iran For now, at least, the United admission, it acknowledges ians. bases housing US forces, be- does not want an escalation with States is committed to an out- that the United States is giving Notwithstanding this Ameri- lieved to have been carried out the United States because it must come in Syria all but absent from al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham can charge, Moscow has built an by pro-Iran Iraqi militias. deal with mounting internal the troubled country’s own his- (HTS) and other terror groups a unrelenting and effective mili- This relative period of calm problems such as a weak econ- torical and political experience. pass in Idlib. tary strategy from Daraa to Idlib prompted the Trump adminis- omy and its bungled attempt to Facing such odds, Washington These ill-begotten sons of around the global consensus that tration to withdraw about 1,000 contain the coronavirus, which has proven unwilling to com- 9/11 — and all that remains of views the battle against HTS/ troops from Kuwait and plan to has infected thousands of its mit the resources necessary to the armed Syrian opposition al-Qaeda and their like-minded withdraw an additional 2,000 citizens. The other theory flips achieve it that was once Washington’s best factions as legitimate. troops from the region, a report this argument on its head by Like Gulliver, the US effort in hope — are fighting for their lives The Russians are certainly no in the Wall Street Journal stated. suggesting that Iran may want an Syria — both on the battlefield in Idlib against a coalition led by angels but their efforts at least Some US military officials, escalation with the United States and in the diplomatic arena — is Moscow. In Washington today, have the advantage of coher- speaking anonymously to the to divert the public’s attention all but immobilised by lesser but the enemy (HTS) of my enemy ence. Russia’s ceasefire memo- newspaper, expressed confi- from these problems. more focused and committed (Assad) has been transformed randum with Turkey reaffirms dence that the “window” for Regardless, the purported de- opponents. The regime and its into my erstwhile Syrian friend. the legitimacy of the campaign more violence coming from Iran escalation between the United foreign supporters are pursuing Jeffrey admitted that “in our against the Islamists and Tur- in retaliation for the Soleimani States and Iran over the past objectives that are attainable and various counterterrorism strikes key’s continuing, if unfulfilled, killing had passed. several weeks has been shat- that reflect the essential engine into Idlib, we haven’t targeted commitment to contain them. However, the deaths recently tered and we may be headed of Syrian history for the last cen- [HTS — an offshoot of al-Qaeda] Washington cannot bring itself incurred by US and allied mili- for a new round of attacks. That tury — the restoration, whatever because we do not see them to endorse this latest milestone tary personnel in Iraq, may cause means that any plans that may the cost, of sovereign control focused on international terror. in Russia’s effort since 2015 to the Pentagon to halt further have been on the books for more exercised by Damascus. Rather, they are focused on fight- establish a working military drawdowns of troops from the drawdowns of US troops from Washington, in contrast, in- ing the Assad regime… They’re coalition against Assad’s op- region. the region have likely hit the sists that, having lost on the bat- certainly not a terrorism priority ponents. The latest ceasefire in The first occurred March 8 in pause button. tlefield, unyielding sanctions on for us.” Idlib represents another limited which two US Marines, fight- Although the Trump adminis- Syria, its citizens and its foreign During the Trump administra- but inexorable step on the long ing alongside Iraqi government tration seems eager to reduce the enablers will win what war has tion, Washington often speaks in road to resolving the war and troops, were killed during an US military presence in Afghani- failed to achieve — the end of the many voices. So it is no surprise re-establishing the sovereign operation against Islamic State stan, which the recent deal with Bashar Assad dictatorship. that a US Central Command authority of the central govern- (ISIS) militants who were in a the Taliban calls for, events and spokesman offered a contrasting ment in Damascus. This process mountain cave in northern Iraq. threats from ISIS and Iran will and less benign view of these is far from perfect but it has the About 25 ISIS fighters were killed likely mean that tens of thou- groups effectively allied to the advantage of establishing an ef- and an ISIS training camp was sands of US troops will remain in The Russians are United States: “All of them are a fective road map for ending the destroyed in the operation. the Arab countries and the Gulf certainly no angels nuisance, a menace and a threat war. Some 5,200 US troops remain for the foreseeable future. to… hundreds of thousands of Would that Washington have in Iraq as part of the anti-ISIS but their efforts at innocent civilians who are just been able to do the same. campaign, involved mostly Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer least have the trying to make it through the in training the Iraqi military, in the Pardee School of Global winter.” Geoffrey Aronson is a non- though some have obviously Studies at Boston University and advantage of Indeed. resident scholar at the Middle been taking part in joint opera- a former US State Department coherence. Trump’s global reassessment East Institute in Washington. tions against ISIS cells. Middle East analyst. 20 March 15, 2020 Economy Coronavirus Fallout Pandemic will ruin Middle East’s 2020 tourism economy

travel expected to fall for the foreseeable future, it could cost the kingdom a large slice of its $70 Stephen Starr billion tourism economy. Countries such as Jordan and Lebanon, where tourism is worth he spreading coronavi- 7% of the GDP, making it a lead- rus means the Middle ing source of income, are already East’s tourism industry suffering a fall-off in early spring can expect 2020 to be a tourism activity. disaster year. Chinese visitors, many on Tourism plays an shopping trip packages, ordinar- Toutsized role in the economies of ily make up 6% of the United many Middle Eastern countries. Arab Emirates’ tourism industry. From Morocco to Iran and from However, a report by US cable Oman to Turkey, the region is news outlet CNBC stated that awash with cultural heritage sites, “data from Dubai’s Tourism and sandy beaches and markets for Commerce Marketing department business travel. showed 291,662 Chinese travel- When the Arab uprisings ex- lers visited the desert emirate in ploded nine years ago, the effect the first quarter of 2019; retail on regional tourism was devastat- analysts expect the majority of ing, costing the countries in- that to be lost this quarter.” With volved a combined $15 billion, the flights grounded between the two Arab Tourism Organisation said. countries, the Emirates is likely to The “long autumn” that followed be feeling those effects. those tumultuous days had just Egypt’s $16 billion tourism sec- begun to lift. tor will suffer a dramatic fall in Turkey is coming off major Western tourists, as will holiday Mounting difficulties. Beirut’s seaside corniche, or waterfront promenade, along the Mediterranean tourism difficulties wrought by a venues across North Africa. Sea, seen almost empty of residents and tourists in Beirut, March 12. (AP) series of terrorist attacks, a failed After a 17% jump last year coup in 2016 and broader politi- where the tourism industry is cal instability, including a major worth $34.5 billion, Turkey, de- thousands of people are living in tourism and travel industries the wider world — have been diplomatic spat with Russia in spite not having recorded a single squalor and are highly dependent lost an estimated $30 billion-$50 caught off-guard, in part because 2015 over its shooting down of a coronavirus case until March 10, on international medical aid. billion. The current COVID-19 of a failure to look ahead and put Russian jet, that resulted in its is set to be worst hit. The threat is What’s more, it’s not only hotels outbreak has seen 110,000 people aside funds for crisis scenarios. tourism trade taking a significant not lost on officials. and travel agencies that will feel infected and is expected to spread “Black swan” events such as this battering. Turkish Health Minister Fahret- the squeeze. From segments of precipitously in the coming outbreak may be impossible to The spreading coronavirus saw tin Koca said: “Europe is very the food supply chains, such weeks. predict but nonetheless are likely Saudi Arabia suspend pilgrim- late in taking measures and it is as farmers, to tourism industry What makes Middle Eastern to always present a threat. ages to Medina and Mecca and still being too slow. It is highly employees to private transport tourism particularly susceptible Areas first affected by this crisis temporarily close many religious likely this outbreak is currently companies, the effects of the to the after-effects of the epidem- — China, Singapore and Hong sites. However, with international in Turkey.” He was proven right coronavirus will be far-reaching. ic is that many governments failed Kong to name a few — will be the two days later when Turkey’s first How long is it set to last? to establish rainy day funds. first to exit and recover and, in COVID-19 case was announced. Experts say countries deploying Italy and the United Kingdom that, there’s some light at the end The big outlier is Iran, one of aggressive public health detec- have taken, or plan to take, meas- of the tunnel. What makes Middle the first countries outside China tion and prevention tactics face ures such as suspending mortgage However, the crisis presents Eastern tourism to report a major outbreak, which at least eight weeks before they and other payments to help peo- bigger questions for governments was centred on the city of Qom. can think about returning to any ple cope with outbreak-associated in the region: how to plan for the particularly However, is Iran reporting ac- sense of normality. However, economic difficulties. In countries unexpected. As we all know, bad susceptible to the curate infection rates — officially the consequences will linger for such as Lebanon, Iran and Syria, economies make for angry citi- after-effects of the at fewer than 300 fatalities and months to come and may trigger however, governments don’t have zens and the increased potential 8,000 infections? Does it have the region-wide or world-wide reces- the funds to help break the fall for for widespread unrest. epidemic is that ability to meet the crisis head-on? sions. their citizens. many governments All signs suggest it does not have By contrast, during the 2003 While the coronavirus spread Stephen Starr is the author of the resources to do so. SARS outbreak, which saw 8,000 could not have been predicted, “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to failed to establish Then there’s Syria’s Idlib people infected with a different it’s plainer to see that govern- the Uprising” and has lived in rainy day funds. province, where hundreds of form of coronavirus, the global ments around the region — and Syria and Turkey since 2007. Maghreb’s economic distress deepens as virus, oil slump hit region

Lamine Ghanmi statement added. It was not clear “We have inherited a disastrous douche. “That means the value of istry said rainfall this season was how the state would react if the situation in all the plans. Our as- oil and gas exports falls by around 141 millimetres, well below the decline in oil prices lasted longer. sessment of the record of the pre- $10 billion to $25 billion compared annual average of 254 millimetres Tunis The United Arab Emirates joined vious governance showed huge to $35 billion in 2019.” the past 30 years. Rainfall was Saudi Arabia in promising to ex- risks that continue to weigh on Algeria envisages an average 40% lower than last season. aghreb countries are pand oil output to record levels the economic and social climate price of oil of $60 a barrel for this Farming accounts for 13% of increasingly threat- in April, as the two oil producers of the country,” he said. “The fi- year. Morocco’s GDP and employs 33% ened by new economic took a united stand in a standoff nancial situation is very fragile, The prospect of $45 a barrel this of the total workforce of more M and health crises that with Russia that has hammered marked by deep internal and ex- year would lead to a current ac- than 11 million. are adding to deep social unrest. crude prices. ternal imbalances.” count deficit of more than $25 bil- The global coronavirus outbreak Algeria’s government, strug- Oil prices have almost halved Djerad said he deplored the rise lion at the end of 2020 and would was expected to slow arrivals gling to tame nationwide protests, since the start of the year over of poverty in Algeria, which once cause foreign currency reserves of foreign tourists and decrease is facing a “multidimensional cri- fears OPEC members would flood had one of the most generous sub- to shrink to $30 billion compared remittances from Moroccan ex- sis,” driven by declining oil rev- the market after Moscow refused sidy plans in the Maghreb, includ- with around $60 billion currently. patriates. As a result, the gov- enue and the novel coronavirus. to broaden output cuts that had ing health care, food, transport Experts said if the oil price ernment-run National Planning Economies in Morocco and Tu- propped up prices since 2016. and foreign currency allocations slump extends beyond 2020, Alge- Commission slashed its forecast nisia are in equally dire straits, Analysts said Algeria’s oil-de- for Algerian tourists. ria’s budget deficit would widen to of Morocco’s economic growth to facing the outlook of the lowest pendent economy was expected around 15% from an expected 7%, 2.2%, compared to 3.5% envisaged growth rate in decades, with a to suffer more than in 2014, when reducing the government’s ability by the government and 3.7% by drought withering the key farm- oil prices fell more than 40%. Al- In Tunisia, the to finance Tebboune’s campaign the International Monetary Fund. ing sector and the coronavirus geria had the eighth largest stock coronavirus is expected to promises of rising wages and low- In Tunisia, the coronavirus was pummelling the tourism industry. of foreign reserves in the world, cut 0.5% from this year’s ering taxes. expected to cut 0.5% of this year’s Algerian Prime Minister Ab- some of which was funnelled to meagre prospect for With the possibility of such meagre prospect for growth be- delaziz Djerad said all parties cushion the blow from falling growth. a budget gap, the government cause of the effect on tourism, its would be expected to “mobilise” prices. would be expected to devalue the key foreign currency earner, as to help get the country out of its Authorities have not imple- Djerad pledged “structural re- currency to increase its revenues authorities reduce or shut down “multidimensional crisis.” mented reforms to diversify the forms” to diversify the economy from oil receipts, causing dire re- flights to and from main European Algerian President Abdelmad- economy and Algeria finds itself at in the face of declining oil rev- percussions for imports and the markets jid Tebboune ruled out borrow- a similar impasse — forced to im- enue. However, analysts warned cost of living. “We worked on a forecast of ing money from abroad or imple- plement deep reforms at a time of that ruling out foreign debt and In Morocco, which has no oil 1.5% growth rate for this year menting an unconventional policy deepening social unrest but with unconventional monetary policy of its own, the economy has the but, after the virus outbreak, we to lessen the effects of oil price de- fewer financial resources. exposes Algeria to the risks of worst potential growth rate in cut that forecast by 0.5%. Yes, we clines. Djerad said foreign reserves depleting its foreign currency re- nearly 20 years because of se- head towards a rate growth of 1%,” “The state has sufficient re- shrank more than $116 billion from serves. vere drought hitting its labour- said Tunisian Prime Minister Ely- sources for the years 2020 and 2014-19, when the budget deficit “Several experts envisage the intensive farming sector and the es Fakhfakh. 2021 to avoid shortages of inputs averaged 10% and the country’s scenario of an average price of oil coronavirus outbreak battering its That rate would be less than half for the economy and necessities retirement fund was expected to at $45 a barrel for the year 2020,” tourism industry. of the average growth of 2.04% for for the population,” a presidential run dry. said Algerian writer Hassan Had- The Moroccan Agriculture Min- the 2000-19 period. March 15, 2020 21 Economy Coronavirus Fallout Fears Egypt’s tourism sector Briefs Egypt’s headline inflation slowed to could be a casualty of COVID-19 5.3% in February

Ahmed Megahid on Health in the Egyptian parlia- Egypt’s annual urban consumer ment. “These measures have con- inflation slowed to 5.3% in Febru- tributed to reducing the risk from ary from 7.2% in January, the offi- Cairo the virus but we are still at the be- cial statistics agency CAPMAS said, ginning.” boosting the chances of an interest gypt’s crucial tourism sector Egypt reported its first corona- rate cut in April. is carrying on even as doz- virus fatality March 8 — a German Month-on-month inflation ens of coronavirus infec- tourist who died at the Red Sea re- stood at 0% compared to 0.7% E tions have been confirmed sort of Hurghada a few days after in January, the agency said. Core in the country but how long the being hospitalised. inflation, which strips out volatile sector will remain active is a grow- There are fears that a downturn items such as food, fell to 1.9% ing concern of tourism officials and in Egypt’s tourism sector, with the year-on-year in February from experts. spread of the virus, could be dev- 2.7% in January. “The sector has already been af- astating for the country’s economy. fected with a large number of in- Tourism contributes around 15% (Reuters) ternational tourists preferring to of Egypt’s annual national income stay at home and avoid travelling,” and the sector employs up to 5 mil- said tourism expert Magdi Selim. lion people. Egypt has confirmed more than The recession that hit the sector Tunisia cuts 2020 50 coronavirus cases, including at the end of 2015, sparked by the dozens on a Nile cruise ship. The bombing of a Russian passenger growth forecast, first case on the ship was appar- plane over Sinai, caused unprece- ently a Taiwanese tourist who was dented losses and exposed vulner- seeks new IMF deal on board. abilities of Egypt’s economy. Tunisia will seek a new loan deal Most of those who tested posi- The recession was worsened by with the International Monetary tive for the virus have either been flight suspensions imposed on Red Fund, Prime Minister Elyes Fakh- foreigners arriving from overseas Sea resorts by Egypt’s most impor- fakh said. or Egyptians who contracted the vi- tant tourist-sending countries. De- Fakhfakh said the government rus abroad. Egypt raised its health prived of tourism revenue, Egypt expected growth of 1% this year, alert level at entry points, including initiated painful reforms and bor- compared with the 2.7% envisaged ports and airports where arrivals rowed $12 billion from the Interna- in the 2020 budget. The corona- must undergo a temperature check tional Monetary Fund. virus crisis was said to be respon- to screen for fever. The sector had been showing sible for a hit of half a percentage The government started a nation- signs of recovery, with high occu- point. wide awareness campaign of how pancy rates at hotels in most of the Tunisia struck a deal with the In- the virus spreads and how to avoid country’s tourist destinations but ternational Monetary Fund (IMF) contagion. Schoolchildren are be- the COVID-19 threatens the upturn. in December 2016 for a $2.8 billion ing taught prevention methods, The sector was especially hurt loan package. such as frequent hand-washing and after 45 Nile cruise ship workers The IMF disbursed a $247 billion the need to avoid touching their tested positive for the virus. Soon Crucial sector. Tourists visit the Luxor Temple in Egypt’s southern loan tranche from that deal last faces. after, reports emerged of workers city of Luxor, March 11. (AFP) June but, since then, negotiations School administrators asked on other Nile cruise ships resigning on a sixth instalment stalled be- parents not to send their children for fear of contracting COVID-19. ity Chairman Ahmed Youssef said, preventive measures applied at the cause of the political crisis follow- to school if they have high tem- There are also reports of tourists “but it must be noted that this is the airport and at the city’s hotels. ing Tunisian October election. peratures or have been coughing or cancelling cruise reservations. case everywhere in the world, not Health authorities are trying to sneezing. Nile cruises are an important part only in Egypt.” prevent new infections among citi- (Reuters) Health authorities are disinfect- of Egypt’s tourism sector, espe- He said health authorities tested zens and foreign tourists. ing trains and underground sta- cially in southern Egypt between all tourism workers for coronavirus “There are booking cancellations tions, as well as public gathering Aswan and Luxor. to ensure none had been infected. but things will be far worse in case Dubai businesses places, such as mosques, churches The Tourism Promotion Author- Egyptian Health Minister Hala of more infections inside our coun- and government administrative of- ity, an arm of the Egyptian Tourism Zayed and Tourism and Antiquities try,” Selim said. “This is why health pin hopes on fices. and Antiquities Ministry, said COV- Minister Khaled al-Anani visited authorities should prevent these in- Expo 2020 “Health authorities are dealing ID-19 caused East Asian markets to Luxor on March 6 to drive home the fections from happening.” very professionally and seriously stop sending tourists to Egypt. message that Egypt remained a safe with the virus,” said Ahmed al-Er- “Apart from this, there is a marked destination for tourists. They vis- Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian Luxury car rental dealer Sheshan gawi, a member of the Committee drop in new reservations,” Author- ited a Nile cruise ship and checked reporter in Cairo. Gautham had a disappointing start to 2020 when nearly two-thirds Viewpoint of his Chinese clients cancelled bookings in January because of the coronavirus outbreak. The business, Uptown Rent A Car, took the hit and Gautham Black swans, grey rhinos and the global oil market thought the worst was over but then Saudi Arabia, his biggest source of customers, halted flights of supply management. After all, kept his country within OPEC+. Saudis displaying a willingness to to and from the United Arab Emir- OPEC+ had dealt consensually with Moscow had been increasingly in- take on Russia, cratering oil prices ates. Rashmee the effect on crude prices of rising censed that production cuts agreed are infecting markets everywhere. Uptown and other businesses Roshan Lall US production and a trade war be- with OPEC were allowing American If oil stays low, it’ll eventually eat that depend on Dubai’s tourists tween the United States and China. frackers to add millions of barrels through national budgets from hope the global health crisis will With the novel coronavirus of oil to the global market. Venezuela to Nigeria and Iran. US have eased in time for the city’s nce upon a time there spreading and analysts forecasting Meanwhile, the Trump adminis- shale producers, who have been Expo 2020 world fair in October. were “black swans,” a the worst year for oil demand since tration was using US energy clout soaring high on borrowed cash, The Expo is billed as a show- term used by Leba- 2008, Riyadh remained hopeful and economic sanctions to med- will be affected, too, but supply piece of culture, business and nese-American scholar, Moscow would agree to deeper pro- dle in Russia’s affairs, notably the is not likely to fall for at least six technology with pavilions from 192 statistician and risk duction cuts. Ahead of the March attempt to prevent the completion months. countries. analyst Nassim Nicho- 6 meeting in Vienna, the Russians of Nord Stream 2, a pipeline linking Add to that OPEC’s doleful fore- Olas Taleb to describe unknown un- hadn’t ruled out the possibility Siberia’s gas fields with Germany. cast of March 11 that there will ef- (Reuters) knowns — unforeseeable, or highly but argued the case for American The United States also targeted the fectively be no growth in global oil improbable, risks. Now, there are shale producers to share the pain. Venezuelan business of Russia’s demand this year. Barely a month grey rhinos, a metaphor coined by In other words, there was no grey state-oil producer Rosneft. ago, it said fuel consumption would Lebanon’s private risk expert Michele Wucker to de- rhino on the horizon. Increasing Russian anger towards increase by just less than 1 million scribe “highly obvious, highly prob- At the time, it didn’t seem highly the United States could justifiably barrels a day — 1% — in 2020. Now, creditors face able but still neglected” dangers. probable that Moscow would blow be taken as the first glimpse of a the group expects an increase of significant losses, Will Russia’s resistance to oil pro- up its partnership with OPEC and grey rhino, an obvious danger to 60,000 barrels a day. duction cuts, in defiance of Saudi condemn the energy sector to a the status quo. After the OPEC+ That makes sense, at least in Moody’s warns Arabia and the wishes of OPEC, be a price crash and major oil exporters breakdown, a Rosneft spokesman conventional terms, but what if grey rhino rather than a black swan? to a decisive brake on growth. insisted that “the total volume of the black swan and the grey rhino Moody’s Investors Service It depends. Then Russia said it would not oil that was reduced as a result unite to produce a black rhino? warned that private creditors faced Until Russia’s refusal to accede cut production any further and the of the repeated extension of the Rock-bottom oil and gas prices significant losses because of the to production cuts, the global oil Saudis responded with a threat to OPEC+ agreement was completely could conceivably affect renewable government’s decision to defer pay- market was suffering the effects of discount crude and boost output. and quickly replaced in the world energy projects and prevent the ment of the March 2020 Eurobond. falling demand on account of the This led to the March 9 price crash, market with American shale oil.” transition from fossil fuel. Cheaper Lebanon announced it could not coronavirus outbreak. Traders had crude’s biggest one-day fall since Unsurprisingly, then, Alexander oil may delay the guillotine for oil. meet upcoming debt payments, warned that global oil demand in the 1991 Gulf war. A grey rhino of Dynkin, head of a Russian state- That may delay any meaningful saying critically low foreign cur- 2020 could contract for the first sorts had suddenly materialised but run think-tank, diagnosed Russia’s effort to deal with climate change, rency reserves were needed to time since the 2008 financial crisis. it still wasn’t quite the way Wucker, behaviour as an obvious response. past the point of discernible effect. cover essential imports and calling The microbe was the black swan, a policy analyst who specialises in “Of course, to upset Saudi Arabia That would be the blackest swan of for “fair” restructuring talks. an event that was hard to predict crises anticipation, categorises this could be a risky thing,” Dynkin them all. Lebanon’s announcement in- and whose consequences were — type of risk. It wasn’t obvious, just said, “but this is Russia’s strategy at volved the halting of a payment of and remain — incomputable. a nascent danger. the moment — flexible geometry of Rashmee Roshan Lall is a $1.2 billion on a Eurobond maturing Even so, the hope was that the Technically, it was well within interests.” columnist for The Arab Weekly. Her March 9. 4-year-old OPEC+ coalition of oil the grey rhino range. Tensions had That flexible geometry adds to blog can be found at producers, which includes Russia, been building even in the years that the risk of the global oil market be- www.rashmee.com and she is on (Reuters) would continue to work in terms Russian President Vladimir Putin ing turned upside down. With the Twitter: @rashmeerl. 22 March 15, 2020 Society Children Tunisian children find therapy in music

Roua Khlifi “We don’t have enough solutions for the time being and violence is rampant. This is something we no- Tunis ticed with children in the workshops and artistic residencies,” Ouissi said. nprecedented violence He said L’Art Rue sought the help of among school children in psychologists and psychiatrists to de- Tunisia prompted social as- vise an artistic programme that can U sociations to lobby for using serve as a therapeutic tool. art as a therapeutic and preventive “Artists conducting the workshops tool for children’s mental health. noticed the aggressive behaviour The Tunisian government intro- of children but were not equipped duced measures pertaining to psy- to handle it,” Yakoubi said. “This is chological and mental health, in- when we stepped in. cluding appointing psychologists in “After observations, we concluded primary schools. Yet, psychologist the children needed psychological Souha Yakoubi said, there is much support that could only be delivered work to be done when it comes to through art because it is easier to mental health in Tunisia. reach a child through artistic activi- “We lack a culture of mental and ties because they have fun and also psychological health. The well-being develop cognitive skills.” of a child and individuals is seen as While it is hard to change an en- physical and financial,” Yakoubi said. vironment in which unfavourable “We notice today that there are more conditions surround children, help- psychologists in school medicine. ing them can be achieved through The number increased in the last artistic activities and workshops with years, including in schools in urban teachers and parents. areas, however, that is not sufficient.” “Teachers also needed help,” Ya- Deconstructing violence. A scene from the theatre workshop for children at the headquarters Yakoubi pointed to the importance koubi said. “They are frustrated and of L’Art Rue. (L’Art Rue) of preventive strategies, such as artis- need to talk about the issues they tic activities, to ensure a safe environ- encounter in the classroom, includ- ment for children to grow mentally ing how to control anger, how to deal too close to each other or at each ety have become more active. Oth- their emotions.” and psychologically. with a hyperactive class and how to other’s throat in less than a minute. ers have become more disciplined. Artistic activities for children in Yakoubi said at least two asso- handle violent behaviour. If you don’t help them recognise Even parents remarked that their impoverished areas help curb vio- ciations, L’Art Rue and Adw’art, col- “Parents were also thirsty for our their space and boundaries, they will children’s results have improved lence at school and bring more moti- laborated with primary schools to sessions. They wanted to learn more transgress others’ space which re- since they became involved in mu- vation and stability to children. organise regular artistic activities on how to cope with their children, sults in violence in the group,” Zghidi sic classes. Having artistic activities Yakoubi said it is unfortunate that for children in impoverished areas communicate with them and make said. definitely motivated them,” she said. Tunisian families are not aware of where high rates of violence and ju- them more efficient.” Adw’art association, which offers Rihab Jebali, president of the Tu- the importance of their children’s venile delinquency are recorded. Actress and film-maker Nejma music classes for the children in im- nisian Association of Music Therapy, mental health. L’Art Rue began a project for de- Zghidi, who worked on the project, poverished areas, partnered with said: “Using music in therapy helps “Parents often refuse to admit that constructing violence through art in stressed the importance of theatre L’Art Rue on the project. children feel better and plays an im- their child is not well psychological- 2018. The programme, implemented classes to help children recognise “The amazing thing is that the chil- portant role in their cognitive and ly. Mental health is still stigmatised in two schools, included workshops their space and identify boundaries dren have responded well to music psychological development. It also despite the progress we made, which involving 90 children, 14 teachers to keep violent behaviour under con- classes. We noticed that they are also helps them to communicate and be- is why it is important to take this pro- and 25 parents. trol and implement mutual respect. learning discipline through music. It come aware of the world. ject to a national level,” Yakoubi said. Soufien Ouissi, co-founder of “These workshops should be ex- has impacted their behaviour posi- “For hyperactive children, for L’Art Rue, said all members of soci- tended to other schools. Art is indis- tively,” said Adw’art President Rym instance, it helps them make use Roua Khlifi is a regular Travel and ety are responsible for the well-being pensable. When working with chil- Bouargoub. of their energy in an effective way Culture contributor to of children. dren, I noticed that they are either “Those struggling with social anxi- to calm them down and control The Arab Weekly. Interview Designing quality childcare business in MENA

region. Overcoming “mother’s guilt” who comes from the same region. and providing a baseline for trusted For a babysitter, their only job is to Khadija childcare are steps to build such a take care of a child. Hamouchi future. “At Jaleesa, we train caregivers to The Arab Weekly (TAW): “Why do understand how the brain develops, we need more Arab mothers in the particularly in the early years when ngela Solomon is a for- workplace?” the child develops their brain facul- mer British diplomat Angela Solomon (AS): “In the ties and emotions. The need for A focus on flexibility and quality. Entrepreneur and former of Lebanese descent MENA region, women in the work- childcare is the premise for giving British diplomat Angela Solomon. (Courtesy of Angela Solomon) turned entrepreneur force is a huge missed opportunity, children a better start in life.” designing the next considering that they are highly TAW: “Who should be involved in wave of childcare busi- educated but not always able to helping women transitioning back to problem. First, we need to have a be responsible, have excellent nessA in the Middle East and North actualise their education into a pro- the workplace?” living wage for everyone across the judgment, reliable, competent and Africa. On a cancelled night out fessional career. AS: “When a woman takes time economy so families can afford to nurturing, which means they have with a friend, newly a mother, she “Mind you, gender equality in out of her position after child labour, have childcare and make a living to love children. jumped on the opportunity to solve the workplace is a global issue. it is not a smooth holiday. It is one of wage at the end of the month. “At Jaleesa, we assess those the problem of the availability of on- Numerous studies show that when the most emotionally and physically “Second, we can offer flexibility. qualities. They are some things demand childcare. women work, families are lifted out changing times of a woman’s life. With the rise of on-demand services, you can learn by getting to know An entrepreneur having co-found- of poverty. Working women invest “When women transition back in we can pay for what we need. If you the caregiver as a person but some ed two restaurants, Solomon is using more in education and nutrition. Af- the workplace, they come back as a only need 3 hours a day, you can training is strongly required, such as her business sense to allow more ter all, we need children to see their different person with more under- have 3 hours a day instead of a full- the basics in child development and women to transition to the work- mothers happy at work and fulfilling standing of a human being. Their time babysitter. first aid. place while enabling other ones to themselves. work is more impact-driven, produc- “Third, we should look at child- “Communication is critical to find jobs as caregivers. In 2015, she “Last, when women work, they tive and they are more assertive. care, not as a cost but as an invest- trust. A caregiver needs to listen to co-founded Jaleesa, an on-demand become influential across economic Women come back as a different ment for the children. Investing the parent and act on what has been childcare business in Lebanon offer- sectors. That is how we build a fair person: more impact-driven, more in early childhood education pays requested and in the way that was ing ad hoc and monthly childcare society in which all voices are heard assertive, more productive. eighteen times in the future. If you required. A caregiver should be able services. and equally empowered.” “In the region, there is not a want to save the cost of childcare, to listen to feedback. In a region that values education, TAW: “What are their specific strong state provision for pre- and solutions include nanny sharing, on- “As a first-time mother, I know the cultural shift in perceiving child- needs?” post-natal care. The health sector, demand services, package childcare that my nanny is a fantastic car- care as an education investment is AS: “Not all parts of the region are the immediate family surroundings offers. egiver if my child runs to the door slowly appearing. It enables children used to the idea of childcare because but also the workplace should be “There will come the point where while clapping his hands when the to learn and grow as well as women we still have wonderful mothers involved by offering breastfeeding affordability will come to partner- caregiver rings at the door.” to have peace of mind to focus at doing fantastic work at home and rooms, more flexible hours if needed ships with employers and govern- work. sometimes with domestic help. For but also a trusted childcare plan that ments. Studies show that millennials Khadija Hamouchi, an Solomon spoke with The Arab many families, it remains a challeng- becomes a support system for work- are leaving their jobs for a job with a award-winning technology Weekly in one of Beirut’s millennial ing idea. ing mums. better package, including childcare.” entrepreneur and researcher, is the cafes, saying childcare is a healthy “We must build trust with the “For women in this region, asking TAW: “What does a trusted child co-founder of Jawla Inc, an online choice for children, mothers and family: mothers but also fathers and for more is a difficult conversation caregiver look like? publishing tool for right-to-left society alike. grandparents who are involved in to have. We can break this model by AS: “I have spoken to hundreds languages, including Arabic in Enabling women back in the childcare. Leaving your child with a having more women in leadership.” of mothers and asked them that particular. She conveys stories of workplace is a responsibility for babysitter or a nanny is an opportu- TAW: “How can we make child- same question. All gave a different change and homegrown intellectual all to build the next generation nity for parents to learn from a new care more affordable for all? perspective but some characteristics thinking in the Middle East and and more inclusive societies in the person, particularly from a nanny AS: “This is the key to solving the are non-negotiable. A nanny must North Africa. March 15, 2020 23 Culture Iraqi photographer’s lens captures Iraq’s protests, women’s role in uprisings in exhibit

Azhar Al-Rubaie

Baghdad

hen anti-government demonstrations erupt- ed in Baghdad and W southern Iraq last Octo- ber, Amir Hazim, a fine arts gradu- ate and professional photographer, joined the protests in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square to record the unprece- dented popular movement through his camera lens. Hazim, 23, has a passion for docu- menting people’s lives, routines and events. He devoted much of his time to make black-and-white photos to archive Iraq’s revolution. “Taking a photo is like making a painting,” Hazim said. “I like black- and-white photography because I love to see things in these two col- ours and to put people in the con- text directly without any colour dis- traction.”

Hazim’s images challenged the stereotype about Iraqis being blindly led by their political leaders like “herds by their shepherds.”

The protests that have rocked Iraq for six months saw scores of young people pour into the street to ex- press their rejection of a corrupt po- litical class and call for reforms. Hazim said his passion for pho- A hunt for the right moment. A young woman reads a newspaper near Tahrir Square in Baghdad during protests. (Amir Hazim) tography started in 2017 and has concentrated on shooting his sub- jects in black and white using a pro- wanted people around the world to tos, I wanted to show the world who ed these moments. titled “All What I Want is Life” takes fessional camera that he purchased see. I thought there is a bright side these people really are and that the “Photos tell people many differ- its name from a phrase echoed on with the help of family and friends. in every photo that has to be seen by protesters who have been protesting ent things, including the time, the the streets of Baghdad and scrawled “Everything is worth being pho- all,” Hazim said. for months are not just numbers.” place and the story of what is illus- across the city’s walls. tographed if you feel that moment He said his images challenged the Capturing Iraqi women’s unprece- trated.” “The exhibition was about the with your lens. It all started as a stereotype about Iraqis being blind- dented participation in the protests Hazim’s photography, at first cap- revolutions and uprisings that took passion and an obsession but, re- ly led by their political leaders like was at the heart of Hazim’s docu- turing “mementos,” became a “full- place in the Arab region, including cently, I took it to a professional “herds by their shepherds.” mentarian work. time job to provide photos to media Iraq. I participated with 20 photos level and turned the hobby into a “That is totally untrue. My duty as “I was so excited to take photos of outlets around the region and have summarising the protests. Although career,” Hazim said. a photographer was to deliver facts the women-led marches,” he said. them published in esteemed plat- the number was small, the photos He started by capturing scenes he from the field and expose the reali- “Iraqi women have long been de- forms over the world. I wish my conveyed the voices of millions,” he reckoned would be of interest to the ties that were revealed by the pro- nied the right to raise their voices photos will be included in history said. public and posted them on social tests,” Hazim said. publicly in a country where tribal textbooks to give future generations media. “While photos are still, in my own customs and traditions are still insight into what was done to earn Azhar Al-Rubaie is a freelance “What made me continue to do way I can make them move and deeply entrenched in society. Actu- our rights,” he said. journalist based in Iraq. His writing photography is my inner lust to han- speak to the recipients,” he said. ally, women have torn down many Hazim’s work was featured in an focuses on politics, health, society, dle the camera and hunt for the right “Each photo I snap has a big story taboos by standing with their broth- exhibition in the United Arab Emir- wars and human rights. Follow him movements to snap photos that I behind it and, through those pho- ers and I am proud that I document- ates about Iraq’s protests. The show on Twitter: @AzherRubaie. Saudi poetry of ‘daily life’ has no interest in regional issues Talking with Saudi poet Hussein al-Muafa

Zaki al-Soudeir good poetry. Most of what we have encouraging these arts because they and powdery details.” right now resembles artificial flow- knew their civilisational and human Muafa expressed pessimism about ers, which lack the natural texture value.” the future of initiatives by the Saudi Riyadh and smell that we usually feel in the Despite the hegemony of the hard- Ministry of Culture to support cul- flow of life in a good text,” he said. line revivalist discourse, which has tural creativity. audi poet Hussein al-Muafa “I can’t really say that there is a po- lasted for more than 40 years, Muafa “As long as neighbourhoods in the recently produced his first po- etic scene (in Saudi Arabia) right now, said such discourse reached its end. country are lacking public libraries, etry collection (published by especially among the new generation. Despite its decline, its effect is felt in there will be no support or atten- S Miled Publishing House), bear- There are limited efforts on social the lack of audacity in the publishing tion paid to any intellectual entity or ing the title, in Arabic, “Life as Wide media platforms and on very limited world. Nevertheless, he said: “We, cultural sector,” he said, “but poets as a Pack of Cigarettes.” spaces in some print dailies, which, the new generation, are wearing the and writers are still innovating and In his poems, Muafa deals with by the way, rarely devote to us, young cloak of a new cultural awareness creating, even though they often daily anxieties, such as when poets, space for our poetry. and coexistence that are intertwined may not have the means to support fear grips farmers at the slight- “There is a big gap and shared with the cultures and themselves for a month or pay for the est prospect of a draught or the and a severed customs of the peoples of the world.” health expenses of their children and city dweller’s constant need link between our Muafa agreed with critics who ar- not even enough recognition and for money, this besides his generation and gue that the problem with new texts gratitude to feed their self-esteem.” A dose of inspiration. Saudi inner thoughts tainted with the generation is the absence of major over-arching Muafa was asked how the new poet Hussein al-Muafa. absurdity and angst. of the poets of and cultural issues. Texts are focused generation of poets looks at chang- (Courtesy of Hussein al-Muafa) “I write and complete my the 1980s. I think on poets’ personal and daily experi- es sweeping the Arab region and prose poem the moment I the main reason ences. whether it was possible to talk about produced a creative and realistic get inspired,” Muafa told for that was the “Today, there are no longer true re- an effect of the “Arab spring” on Arab language, more closely and deeply The Arab Weekly. “I live in very conservative gion-wide issues that touch the souls culture, about whether we can talk attached to the sad and miserable Jizan in the south of Saudi discourse of the of the poet or writer in general and about a collision between new and reality of the Arab man with all his Arabia, where I find God, religious revivalist that’s why they write the way they traditional tenets of Arab culture. inner anxiety and weariness. It is an the fields, mothers and era, which aborted do,” Muafa said. “Every generation “The ‘Arab spring’ carried screams, earthly discourse full of themes of poems that do not sleep. the aesthetics of has its own life experiences, which objections and slogans, whether it loss and death so that a new genera- I like literature that re- non-dominant and will surely be reflected in the texts it was in the form of peaceful or absurd tion can have a life of freedom and veals life.” innovative artistic produces. Poetry now is the poetry protests or both at the same time,” rights.” “From my point of forms, while people of daily life, which the poet experi- Muafa said. “In spite of the chang- view, there isn’t much elsewhere were ences in all its good, bad, luxurious es, losses and deaths, it has at least Zaki al-Soudeir is a Saudi writer. 24 March 15, 2020 Mosaic www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

El Kef: through March 21

Sicca Jazz, an annual music festival in El Kef, in north- western Tunisia, brings musi- cians from all over the world to perform and interact. This year’s programme includes indoor and street concerts.

Beirut: Through March 22

Al Bustan International Festival of Music and the Performing Arts is a musical celebration that takes place at various venues in Beirut and promotes music from all over the world. The festival includes orchestral concerts, choral music, opera and dance performances.

Jeddah: Through July 3

Full Moon Festival at Dur- rat Al-Arous La Fontaine 2 is suitable for all ages, offering Works on display at the fifth Arabic Calligraphy Forum in Cairo. (Hassan Abdel Zaher) a wide range of activities, including fire shows, musi- cal performances and other Calligraphy forum explores future of interesting programmes. Zammour: March 19-22

The fourth Zammour Trek- quintessential Arabic art genre king is scheduled for a Berber village in the Tunisian Sa- hara over four days and three Hassan Abdel Zaher Arab and foreign artists. nights. Visitors can camp in Calligraphers from China, the Bedouin tents, trek or bike in United Kingdom, Indonesia, Ma- the village, visit mountains, Cairo laysia and the United States partici- attend folklore parties and pated in the forum. There were Arab enjoy traditional food. he fifth Arabic Calligraphy calligraphers from Egypt, the United Forum in Cairo brought Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Algeria Cairo: together Arab and foreign and Mauritania. March 20-April 10 T calligraphers to discuss the The forum coincided with the past and chart the future of Arabic celebration of Cairo as the capital Downtown Contemporary calligraphy in the age of fast-devel- of Islamic culture for 2020 and was Arts Festival is an internation- oping technology. among a long list of events designed al multidisciplinary contem- The 12-day forum, which opened to mark the occasion. porary event that includes lo- March 5, was attended by approxi- Saudi Arabia, backed by 16 other cal, regional and international mately 160 calligraphers. It included countries, is planning to request that music, theatre, dance, visual seminars, workshops and discus- UNESCO include Arabic calligraphy arts and films by artists from sions on the future of Arabic callig- on its Lists of Intangible Cultural Egypt, the Arab world and be- raphy, the evolution of the writing of Heritage, a step calligraphers hope yond. The festival takes place the Quran, the effects modernity and would protect the traditional art. in various venues in Cairo. globalisation on the art and whether Egypt is increasingly interested in Saudi calligrapher Saud Shakir Khan in front of one of his works modern technology is a blessing or a preserving and developing calligra- Tunis: curse for the profession. phy as an expression of Arabic and on display at the fifth Arabic Calligraphy Forum in Cairo. (Hassan Abdel Zaher) April 2-11 “This is an important event, not Islamic culture, an interest shown only because it gathers this large through efforts by the Ministry of The 15th Jazz a Carthage, an number of top calligraphers from Culture in organising the forum. “The diversity and the richness view ancient manuscripts held by annual music festival, brings different countries but also because A parallel exhibition featured doz- of the experiences that participants Egyptian cultural and religious in- together renowned interna- of the importance of calligraphy for ens of works by leading calligraphy are bringing in make the forum a stitutions. tional and local musicians the Arab and Islamic culture,” said artists. The works highlighted vari- very special event. Calligraphers These included rare copies of the for concerts, gatherings and Mohamed al-Arabi, an Egyptian ous calligraphy schools from around have travelled from all corners of Quran from the library of al-Azhar street performances. Concerts calligrapher and member of the fo- the world. Some presented innova- the world to participate,” said Saudi Mosque and manuscripts from the are scheduled for Gammarth, rum’s organising committee. tive representations of Quranic vers- calligrapher Saud Shakir Khan. Egyptian National Library and Ar- Tunis and Sidi Bou Said. Calligraphy is the most beautiful es while others were Arabic script Apart from the exhibition, the chives, the country’s oldest library. expression of Arab Islamic culture that demonstrated the skill of their seminars and workshops, the forum It holds tens of thousands of ancient Amman: and has captivated generations of artists and the beauty of calligraphy. gave participants the chance to re- books and manuscripts. April 10 Among challenges facing callig- raphy is poor working conditions The Dead Sea Ultra Marathon of calligraphers in many countries, is an annual race that attracts including Egypt where few cal- thousands of runners and en- ligraphers can earn a living solely thusiasts from all parts of the depending on their work. Most of world, including well-known them must have other jobs to buy marathon runners. The the necessary tools and make ends schedule includes a 10km race meet. for runners specialising in Fast-paced technological develop- shorter distances in addition ments that have allowed machines to a half marathon, a 50km to be in competition with humans in relay and the main 50km ultra producing calligraphy works create marathon. other challenges. Technology offers new vistas for Dubai: calligraphy by helping the evolu- April 15-19 tion and development of the art. However, some developments are The Dubai Tango Festival will considered a threat to calligraphers include tango workshops and who are wary of technology capable milongas with famous tango of producing calligraphic works. dancers and singers. “This is why technology is emerg- ing as a major challenge for the cal- ligraphers,” said Jassim Hamid, an We welcome submissions of Iraqi calligrapher and one of the calendar items related to participants in the forum. “The cal- cultural events of interest to ligraphers need to think of how best travellers in the Middle East they can turn this technology into a and North Africa. friend, rather than a competitor or an enemy.”

Hassan Abdel Zaher is a Please send tips to: Cairo-based contributor to [email protected] A visitor looks at artworks at the fifth Arabic Calligraphy Forum in Cairo. (Hassan Abdel Zaher) The Arab Weekly.