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UAE Real Estate Report Q1 2020

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UAE Real Estate Report Q1 2020 Property Review UAE Real Estate Report Q1 2020 Northern Special Note Abu Dhabi Dubai 32 11 20 Emirates 26 Al Ain 30 Emirates NBD 31 Al Tamimi & Co. SPECIAL NOTE FROM MANAGEMENT The COVID-19 pandemic has created an environment of acute uncertainty. The implications for world markets and the Real Estate sector have yet to be quantified. What is certain, significant levels of volatility will extend across the economy, financial markets and Real Estate sector until the extent of the health and economic impact has become more apparent. This high degree of ambiguity is likely to remain for the foreseeable future. Whilst it is probable that all sectors will be impacted, it is almost certain that some will be affected to a greater extent. This may stem from a loss in confidence, preventive measures (such as social distancing), and/or developments yet to unfold. The UAE Central Bank, together with Central Banks and Governments around the world have made unprecedented moves to stabilise the economy and markets. To date, significant stimulus packages have been announced at both the Federal and Municipal levels. To complicate matters further, in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis we are witnessing significant fluctuations in oil prices (a key export for the UAE). Oil price changes are reflective of both demand consequences of COVID-19 and wider supply factors. Oil price volatility is also likely to prevail for the foreseeable future. Elaine Jones To date, Asteco has not recorded a discernible change in demand, or values. However, it is likely that activity FRICS will diminish, at least over the short – medium term. Moreover, price declines grow increasingly likely in the event of a prolonged economic downturn. Until greater stability returns to the market it is difficult to predict Executive Chairman and Founder when conditions will normalise and how transactional volumes, and values will be affected. It should therefore be explicitly noted that the following data reflects Q1 2020 activity, and as such, reflects sentiment and trends largely recorded prior to the designation of the COVID-19 pandemic. 2 ABU DHABI MARKET OVERVIEW SUPPLY* RENTAL RATES SALES PRICES Approximately 1,000 Residential units were completed in Q1 2020 The continuous delivery of new supply during a period of Sales transaction volumes and activity remained low in Q1 2020. (850 Apartments and 150 Villas), predominantly located across restrained economic growth has put pressure on Residential rents projects in Al Raha Beach, Danet Abu Dhabi and Al Reem Island. with Apartment and Villa rates declining by 2% and 3% since Q4 Average Apartment and Villa Sales prices softened by 3% since Q4 2019, and 5% and 4% compared with the same period last year. 2019, and recorded an annual decline of 9% and 7%, respectively. Another 10,000 units are expected for handover before the end of 2020, the majority of which is expected to be delivered within the Whilst mid and high quality units noted the highest Rental rate Whilst the drop in Villa Sales prices was less pronounced, it should Investment Zones of Al Reem Island, Al Raha Beach, Saadiyat declines, prime and high-end projects recorded a significant rise be noted that large villas with high price points struggled to Island and Yas Island. in vacancy levels. generate interest. Similar to previous years, a number of projects are expected to be Incentives, such as multiple cheques (with some offering up to 8 Demand for off-plan and newly completed projects continued to delayed and will ultimately spill over into 2021, particularly taking cheques) and rent free periods, have become a norm, and outweigh that for existing ones. Investors preferred affordable into consideration current market conditions. Tenants are increasingly looking for value-for-money properties. properties, particularly value-for-money units. Office demand levels continued to be low, and similar to the Residential sector, Landlords provided discounted rates on contract renewal in order to retain Tenants. On average, Office Rental rates decreased by 1% over the quarter and by more than 5% annually. However, some mid to low quality buildings recorded annual declines of 7% to 10%. Rental rates across all asset classes are expected to face further drops in 2020. In addition, Asteco expects an increase in vacancy rates and reduced demand for properties priced above market rates. * It is important to note that whilst a number of projects may have received completion certificates, Asteco does not consider a project delivered until the handover process has been initiated, or the units are available for lease in the open market. 3 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q1 2020 ABU DHABI SUPPLY COMPLETED IN COMPLETED IN EXPECTED BY 2019 Q1 2020 END OF 2020 5,200 850 9,100 APARTMENTS NO. OF UNITS 1,400 1,050 900 VILLAS NO. OF UNITS 4 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q1 2020 ABU DHABI APARTMENT RENTAL RATES (All figures in AED 000’s p.a.) STUDIO 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOMS 3 BEDROOMS % CHANGE FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO Q4 2019 - Q1 2020 Q1 2019 - Q1 2020 PRIME PROPERTIES ABU DHABI ISLAND - 115 105 165 150 235 -3% -5% INVESTMENT AREA 65 100 90 155 128 210 175 285 -1% -2% HIGH END PROPERTIES Central Abu Dhabi 50 55 60 65 80 125 120 150 -2% -5% ABU DHABI ISLAND Corniche 50 65 77 85 120 125 160 -15% Khalidya / Bateen 65 75 75 85 75 135 115 170 -1% -4% Al Raha Beach 60 70 70 90 100 135 135 185 Marina Square 45 50 55 75 72 125 110 145 -4% -6% INVESTMENT AREA Shams Abu Dhabi 47 60 82 120 155 Saadiyat Beach - - 115 140 145 165 -5% -11% Yas Island 55 75 85 105 125 165 175 -7% MID END PROPERTIES ABU DHABI ISLAND 40 45 50 70 75 100 110 -9% Shams Abu Dhabi - - 55 65 69 95 105 130 -6% INVESTMENT AREA Najmat & Tamouh 39 50 55 63 95 135 Al Raha Beach - 80 110 - - n/a n/a OFF ISLAND Khalifa & MBZ City 26 45 60 115 117 130 -5% LOW END PROPERTIES Central Abu Dhabi 35 38 42 50 50 60 65 95 -8% ABU DHABI ISLAND Corniche 40 40 45 55 60 65 75 90 0% -4% Khalidiya / Bateen 38 40 45 55 70 90 INVESTMENT AREA Al Reef 37 45 55 60 75 80 95 -2% OFF ISLAND Khalifa & MBZ City 28 32 45 80 0% Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Since peak Since market low % Change Since Q4 2019 Since Q1 2019 Q4 2015 Q2 2012 -2% -5% -28% -9% 5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q1 2020 ABU DHABI APARTMENT SALES PRICES % CHANGE (All figures in AED per sq.ft.) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Q4 2019 - Q1 2020 Q1 2019 - Q1 2020 AL BANDAR 1,100 1,425 -3% -5% AL MUNEERA 925 1,150 -8% -14% AL ZEINA 800 1,050 -12% CITY OF LIGHTS 750 850 0% 0% (HYDRA) CITY OF LIGHTS 800 1,000 n/a n/a (OTHER PROJECTS*) MARINA SQUARE 800 1,000 -5% REEF DOWNTOWN 650 850 -6% SAADIYAT BEACH RESIDENCES 1,150 1,350 -4% -6% SUN & SKY TOWERS 850 975 -4% -13% THE GATE 850 975 -17% YAS ISLAND 950 1,150 -3% 7% Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Since peak Since market low * Includes Meera Towers, Park view % Change Since Q4 2019 Since Q1 2019 Q4 2015 Q2 2012 -3% -9% -33% 6 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q1 2020 ABU DHABI VILLA RENTAL RATES (All figures in AED 000’s p.a.) 2 BEDROOMS 3 BEDROOMS 4 BEDROOMS 5 BEDROOMS % CHANGE FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO Q4 2019 - Q1 2020 Q1 2019 - Q1 2020 Khalidiya / Bateen - 140 165 150 165178 150 -6% ABU DHABI ISLAND Mushrif / Karama / Manaseer - - 160 175150 210 -1% -2%-4% Nahyan Camp / Muroor 125 160 145 170 180 -1% Al Raha Beach 55 185 185 260 240 260 -2% Al Reef 72 80 9065 100 135 -7% Hydra Village 62 78 - - -16%-4% INVESTMENT AREA Saadiyat Beach Villas 270 310 350 350 670 -3% Hidd Al Saadiyat 290 330 310 730 -4% -3% Yas West - 200 210 215 220 Al Raha Gardens 130 145 140 145180 210 -7% Golf Gardens 170 200 220 165220 265 OFF ISLAND Khalifa City - 105 120 130 155 Mohamed Bin Zayed 100 105 105 110 145 -1% - n/a n/a 0% -2% 4% Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Since peak Since market low % Change Since Q4 2019 Since Q1 2019 Q4 2015 Q4 2012 -3% -4% -17% 7 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q1 2020 ABU DHABI VILLA SALES PRICES % CHANGE (All figures in AED Million) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Q4 2019 - Q1 2020 Q1 2019 - Q1 2020 2 BR 1.13 3 BR 1.43 AL REEF VILLAS -4% 4 BR 1.80 5 BR 2.20 - 3 BR 3.10 GOLF GARDENS -1% -1% 4 BR 3.75 -12% 5 BR 4.88 - 0% - HIDD AL SAADIYAT 0% 4 BR 6.35 5 BR 8.00 n/a 2 BR 0.92 3 BR 1.20 HYDRA VILLAGE - - - 3 BR 2.05 RAHA GARDENS -8% 4 BR 2.33 5 BR 3.45 2 BR SAADIYAT BEACH VILLAS 3 BR 5.13 -7% -11% (STANDARD) 4 BR 6.13 5 BR 8.63 - - YAS WEST VILLAS n/a 4 BR 4.10 5 BR 4.63 4%* Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Since peak Since market low * Includes Raha Gardens, Golf Gardens & Al Reef Villas only.
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