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GROSS ABSORPTION TOUCHES NEW HIGH Diksha Gulati Manager | Research | Mumbai +91 77 0090 1826 [email protected]

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GROSS ABSORPTION TOUCHES NEW HIGH Diksha Gulati Manager | Research | Mumbai +91 77 0090 1826 Diksha.Gulati@Colliers.Com COLLIERS SEMI‐ANNUAL OFFICE | MUMBAI | RESEARCH | H2 2019 | 28 JANUARY 2020 GROSS ABSORPTION TOUCHES NEW HIGH Diksha Gulati Manager | Research | Mumbai +91 77 0090 1826 [email protected] 2020–24 Summary & H2 2019 Full Year 2020 Annual Average Recommendations > We expect robust leasing activity to continue In 2019, Mumbai recorded the during 2020, driven in part by financial services occupiers and flexible workspace highest gross absorption in 10 Demand operators expanding their operations. 5.3 mn sq ft 7.0 mn sq ft 7.0 mn sq ft years at 9.4 million sq ft (873,600 sq m). Mumbai’s traditional demand driver, the financial > New completions should support demand services sector, led the leasing through 2020 with most supply coming in H1 activity, followed by flexible Supply 2020. 1.8 mn sq ft 10.5 mn sq ft 6.2 mn sq ft workspace operators. City‐wide rents rose 0.7% YOY, while vacancy levels declined to 7.6%. Annual Average > We recommend technology HOH / YOY / Growth 2019–24 / occupiers looking for large End H2 End 2020 End 2024 contiguous floor plates > We expect strengthening rent to be led by 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% consider leasing spaces in the popular micromarkets of Andheri East, Navi Mumbai and Thane Navi Mumbai, Thane and LBS/Eastern micromarkets as significant Rent Suburbs. INR141.1 INR142.0 INR147.0 supply infusion is scheduled during 2020‐2024. ‐2.8pp 1.9pp ‐0.8pp > Vacancy levels are likely to increase in 2020 > We believe timely completion owing to the infusion of significant new of infrastructure projects over supply. the next five years should Vacancy 7.6% 9.5% 3.6% boost occupiers’ confidence in Mumbai, hence augmenting Source: Colliers International. Note: Demand represents gross leasing; 1 sq m = 10.76 sq ft; pp: percentage point; USD1 = INR71.2 as on 24th December 2019. demand for real estate. We revised our Mumbai rent basket in Q3 2019, to include an updated mix of IT and Non‐IT buildings. Half‐year and yearly comparisons reflect the change as per revised values. COLLIERS SEMI‐ANNUAL OFFICE | MUMBAI | RESEARCH | H2 2019 | 28 JANUARY 2020 GROSS ABSORPTION SOARS Mumbai, gross effective rental values, H2 2019 HOH YOY FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR PRIMARY DEMAND H2 2019 H2 2019 Change Change DRIVER (INR psf pm) (USD psf pm) (%) (%) CBD1 180 ‐ 320 2.5 ‐ 4.5 0.0% 0.0% City‐wide rental values strengthened by 0.7% YOY Andheri East2 100 ‐ 120 1.4 ‐ 1.7 0.0% 0.0% 2019 proved to be a record year for the city with annual leasing of 9.4 million sq feet (873,600 sq metres), the highest in the last 10 years. With BKC1 210 ‐ 425 2.9 ‐ 6.0 0.0% 0.0% about 23% higher leasing activity from 2018, gross absorption in 2019 was 2 driven by financial services occupiers garnering a 27% share, followed by Lower Parel 120 ‐ 140 1.7 ‐ 2.0 5.3% 5.3% flexible workspace operators (19%) and technology occupiers (15%). Malad2 75 ‐ 95 1.1 ‐ 1.3 0.0% 0.0% Mumbai recorded gross absorption of 5.3 million sq feet (492,600 sq metres) in H2 2019, registering an increase of 30% compared to H1 2019. In H2 Navi Mumbai2 44 ‐ 60 0.6 ‐ 0.8 1.0% 1.0% 2019, financial services occupiers continued to lead the gross leasing activity like that in H1 2019, with average deal size of 47,000 sq feet (4,400 sq Powai2 110 ‐ 130 1.5 ‐ 1.8 0.0% 0.0% metres) which is almost double of that in H1 2019. Worli/Prabhadevi2 160 ‐ 200 2.2 ‐ 2.8 0.0% 0.0% During 2019, more than half (57%) of gross absorption was concentrated in the micromarkets of Goregaon/JVLR, LBS/Eastern Suburbs and Navi Goregaon/JVLR2 110 ‐ 160 1.5 ‐ 2.2 0.0% 0.0% Mumbai, distributed about equally amongst them. About 54% of the overall Kalina1 145 ‐ 180 2.0 ‐ 2.5 0.0% 0.0% gross leasing was in IT developments with the rest in Non‐IT developments. 2 In line with our forecast, financial services occupiers focused on Thane 48 ‐ 65 0.7 ‐ 0.9 0.0% 0.0% consolidating their office space. In a notable transaction, JP Morgan, the LBS/Eastern Suburbs2 80 ‐ 110 1.1 ‐ 1.5 5.6% 5.6% global banking and financial services provider, pre‐committed to a long‐term lease of 1.15 million sq feet (106,900 sq metres) in the micromarket of Source: Colliers International Note: Indicative Grade A rentals Goregaon/JVLR. With this transaction, JP Morgan plans to consolidate most 1 Reflects rents for Non‐IT developments of its office operations in Mumbai, when the building is completed, 2 Reflects rents for IT developments scheduled for Q2 2021. CBD includes Nariman Point, Ballard Estate, Cuffe Parade, Churchgate, Fort During 2020‐2024, we expect robust leasing activity, projecting cumulative gross leasing of about 35.0 million sq feet (3.3 million sq metres). In 2020, Owing to steady gross absorption, overall rental values in the city we expect the financial services occupiers and flexible workspace operators appreciated by 0.7% YOY, driven by rental value appreciation in select to drive the leasing activity. We are noting steady enquiries by financial micromarkets of Navi Mumbai and LBS/Eastern Suburbs. services occupiers for space in preferred micromarkets, namely Andheri East, Goregaon/JVLR and LBS/Eastern Suburbs. By 2024, we expect overall city rental values to strengthen at a CAGR of 0.8%, especially in the preferred micromarkets of Andheri East, Navi Mumbai, Thane and LBS/Eastern Suburbs, driven by consistent leasing amidst limited availability in Grade A developments. 2 COLLIERS SEMI‐ANNUAL OFFICE | MUMBAI | RESEARCH | H2 2019 | 28 JANUARY 2020 Mumbai, rental trend 2013‐2024F DESPITE SIGNIFICANT SUPPLY LHS INR psf pm RHS USD psf pm 160 2.4 INFUSION, VACANCY DECLINES During 2019, Mumbai witnessed supply infusion of 4.2 million sq feet 150 2.2 (390,300 sq metres), registering an increase of 60% from in 2018. About 75% of the new supply comprises IT developments, with non‐IT developments 140 2.0 across micromarkets of Goregaon/JVLR, Andheri East and Thane, accounting for the remaining. These projects were completed later than scheduled; 130 1.8 however, this should provide opportunities to occupiers looking for large 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F contiguous floor plates in Grade A developments in these micromarkets. Source: Colliers International Despite the new supply, at the end of 2019, vacancy declined to 7.6%, from 11.0% at the end of 2018, led by robust leasing. We advise developers to Mumbai, gross office absorption (million sq ft) reformulate their construction plans and expedite completion of developments, to cater to the steady demand in the city. 10 During 2020‐2024, we project about 31.0 million sq feet (2.9 million sq 8 metres) of new supply. We expect almost half of the upcoming supply to be 6 concentrated in the Navi Mumbai and Thane micromarkets. We believe this 4 should support increasing demand from IT‐BPM occupiers in these locations. 2 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Colliers International Mumbai, major leasing transactions, H2 2019 Client Building Name Area (sq ft) Location We believe that timely completion of infrastructure projects over the next Yes Bank Empire Tower 250,000 Navi Mumbai five years should boost occupiers’ confidence in Mumbai, hence augmenting demand for real estate. In 2020, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Tata Communications Equinox Business Park 244,000 Kurla Development Authority (MMRDA) plans to commission two metro lines, namely Line 2A of 18.6 km between Dahisar and D.N. Nagar and Line 7 of WeWork Nesco IT Park 230,000 Goregaon 16.5 km between Dahisar East and Andheri East. Once operational, this KPMG Nesco IT Park 210,000 Goregaon should benefit an estimated ridership of 1.6 million people by 2031 by significantly lowering travel times, and reducing pressure on the existing Source: Colliers International infrastructure. Note: All figures are based on market information on 25th December 2019. 3 Primary Author: For further information, please contact: Diksha Gulati Sangram Tanwar Manager | Research | Mumbai Managing Director | Mid‐India +91 77 0090 1826 +91 99 3014 6976 [email protected] [email protected] Megha Maan Senior Associate Director | Research | India +91 96 6718 8334 [email protected] About Colliers International Group Inc. Colliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading global real estate services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our 14,000 enterprising people work collaboratively to provide expert advice and services to maximize the value of property for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For more than 20 years, our experienced leadership team, owning approximately 40% of our equity, have delivered industry‐leading investment returns for shareholders. In 2018, corporate revenues were $2.8 billion ($3.3 billion including affiliates), with more than $26 billion of assets under management. For the latest news from Colliers, visit our website or follow us on Copyright © 2020 Colliers International The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report..
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