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Review of Renewable Energy Generation in US Review of Renewable Energy Generation in U.S. CDFA, Intro to Energy Finance David Feldman July 31, 2012 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. U.S. Energy Mix Net U.S. Generation by Energy Source, 2011 Planned U.S. Electric Generation Capacity Additions, 2011-5 (85 GW) Geothermal Nuclear Other Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Wind Hydroelectric Other Other Natural Gas Solar Renewables Solar Thermal Thermal & PV and Wood Photovoltai c Coal Geothermal Other Biomass Wind •Currently Renewables only produce ~5% of electric generation •However, a large portion of capacity being built in near future will come from renewable sources Sources: Energy Information Agency (EIA). “Electric Power Monthly”, 07/26/12. Planned U.S. Electric Generation Capacity Additions only includes systems > 1 MW, therefore distributed PV included through: EIA, “Annual Energy Outlook”, table A16, PV End-Use Sector, 06/25/12. 2 Renewable Portfolio Standards Current policy is largely driven by states through the electoral process (aka the people) But there are federal incentives: • Production Tax Credit (PTC): ~2.2 cent/kWh of energy produced. Exp. end of ‘12. • Investment Tax Credit (ITC): Tax credit on 30% of the capital cost (non avail. for wind) • Treasury 1603 grant (exp. end of ‘11): Cash grant instead of tax credit (limited tax appetite) • Clean Renewable Energy Bonds (CREB’s): Bonds for non-taxable entities • Accelerate Depreciation 3 Different Types of Solar Distributed Solar Thermal Generation, on-site or near point of use Photovoltaics (PV) Centralized Generation, large users or utilities Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) 4 Photovoltaic Technology •Employs a semiconductor material to generate electricity •All other types of energy generation rely on mechanical energy •PV produces DC current which must be converted to AC energy to feed into grid (through an inverter) •Market: Residential; Commercial, Utility •Geographically diverse •System Size: 1 kW to 250 MW •U.S. Capacity, EY ‘11: ~4 GW •Technologies: thin-films, crystalline silicon (c-Si), CPV •c-SI modules have 40+ yr. history and are ~85% of market •Storage: batteries are used, though is a niche market •Distributed generation relies on “net-metering” or sells directly to grid 5 Photovoltaic Solar Resources •U.S. has very good PV resources as compared to places like Germany/Spain •Last year Germany installed ~4x more PV capacity that U.S. and is 1/6 the size •Subsidies have played a large role on where PV has been installed U.S. China India Japan Europe ROW 50 40 30 20 10 Global Demand (GW) Demand Global 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012P 2013P 2014P Note: E = estimate, P = projection Sources: median of Barclays (03/19/12), BNEF (02/06/12), Citibank (02/22/12), Cowen (03/20/12) EPIA (Market Outlook 2011, Global Market Outlook until 2015), Goldman Sachs (02/29/12), Navigant Consulting (01/26/12) Photon Consulting (Solar Annual 2012), Stifel Nicolaus (01/25/12), UBS (01/20/12) 6 U.S. Installation Breakdown U.S PV Installations by Market Segment U.S. PV Installations by State (MWDC), 2011 900 776 ) 800 Utility DC Other 700 Non-Residential Residential 256 600 California 473 443 500 542 Next Four 361 400 331 States* 276 227 355 50 300 167 187 187 38 New Jersey 200 152 250 18 212 313 22 51 166 173 Arizona 119 101 Quarterly (MW PV InstalledQuarterly 100 67 73 273 62 62 66 75 72 69 73 83 - Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 • An estimated 1.86 GW of PV was installed in U.S. in 2011 • Non-residential installation was the largest sector, followed closely by the Utility sector • CA & NJ consistently the top two states in PV U.S. installations * “Next Four States”: 2011: NM , PA, CO, NY Sources: GTM/SEIA : U.S. Solar Market Insight Q4 2011 & 2011 Year-in-Review. Q1 ’10 – Q2 ‘11 data supplemented by earlier GTM/SEIA Solar Market Insights 7 Sample PV Projects Residential System Commercial System Installed by SolarCity Installed by SunEdison Utility-Scale System Installed by First Solar 8 CSP: Overview •CSP requires direct sunlight •Limited to certain areas like Southwest U.S. •Different Technologies: • Troughs, Towers, Dishes •Most applications are very large in scale •After fluid is heated, it operates much like traditional energy generation (coal, nuclear) •Has the ability to store energy • Molten salt •Can be incorporated into traditional energy generation (hybridized) 9 CSP: Different Technologies Troughs Towers • Linear Focus – Tube Receiver • Point Focus – Central Receiver • Scale: Utility | 30 to 250 MW • Scale: Utility | 3 to 250 MW • Solar Concentration: 50 suns • Dual Axis Tracking – Azimuth & Elevation • Storage Capability – Oil to Salt Heat Exch. • Solar concentration: 800 suns • Commercially Proven – 20 yrs Experience • Storage Capability – Salt | Lowers Cost • First Commercial Plant Just Completed Dishes • Point Focus – Engine/Receiver • Scale: Distributed/Utility | 10kW to 100 MW • Dual Axis Tracking – Always Looking at the sun – No cosine loss • Storage Capability: Under Development 10 CSP Market Status: U.S. Currently Operating: . SEGS 1-2 (Cogentrix): 44 MW Trough . SEGS 3-9 (FPL-NextEra): 310 MW Trough . Nevada Solar One (Acciona) 64 MW Trough . Martin (FPL-NextEra): 75 MW Trough . Sierra (eSolar) 5 MW Tower . Coalinga Hybrid (Bright Source) 5 MW Tower . Maricopa (Stirling Energy Systems) 1 MW Dish . Cameo Hybrid (Abengoa) 1 MW Trough Total 505 MW Under Construction with DOE Loan Guarantees: . Ivanpah (Bright Source): 392 MW Tower $1.6 B . Solana (Abengoa): 280 MW Trough w/Storage $1.4 B . Crescent Dunes (Solar Reserve): 110 MW Tower w/Storage $0.7 B . Genesis (FPL-NextEra): 250 MW Trough $0.7 B . Mojave (Abengoa): 280 MW Trough $1.3 B Total 1,312 MW $5.7 B . Under Development: 7.5 GW 11 11 CSP: Sample Projects Solar Two Solana • Built: 1996 • Under Construction • Location: Barstow, CA • Location: Phoenix, AZ • Developer: DOE, SCE • Developer: Abengoa Solar • Capacity: 10 MWe • Capacity: 280 MWe • Technology: molten-salt power tower • Technology: parabolic trough w/ 6 hours storage 12 Wind Turbine Technology Rotor Adjusted to control rotation speed and generated power Pitch • Blade acts much like an airplane wing, using “lift” to turn Rotation blade • Designed to turn into wind to capture most energy • Blades turn shaft, which turns gears connected to generator Yaw • Higher heights capture faster, less turbulent wind • Generally divided into: nacelle; tower; and foundation 13 Sizes and Applications Small (10 kW) Homes Intermediate Farms (10-250 kW) Remote Applications Village Power (e.g. water Hybrid pumping, telecom Systems sites, icemaking) Distributed Power Large (250 kW – 2+ MW) Central Station Wind Farms Distributed Power • Different sized turbines for different applications • The majority of capacity currently installed is from large systems • Off-shore turbines are relatively new development • More expensive installation & O&M • Larger turbines with more reliable, stronger wind 14 Regional Potential of Wind • The strongest wind resources in U.S. is in the middle of the country – Most of U.S. capacity is currently installed in that region – Transmission needed to connect to large portions of population 15 Wind Installation Market International Rankings of Wind Power Capacity Annual Growth in Wind Power Capacity Annual Capacity Cumulative Capacity 12 Fin. crisis, (2010, MW) (end of 2010, MW) lower China 18,928 China 44,781 10 demand, U.S. 5,113 U.S. 40,267 cheaper India 2,139 Germany 27,364 8 nat. gas. Germany 1,551 Spain 20,300 U.K. 1,522 India 12,966 6 PTC lapses Spain 1,516 France 5,961 France 1,186 U.K. 5,862 Capacity (GW) 4 Italy 948 Italy 5,793 Canada 690 Canada 4,011 2 Sweden 604 Portugal 3,837 Rest of World 5,205 Rest of World 28,371 0 TOTAL 39,402 TOTAL 199,513 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 • U.S. is one of the leading markets for wind turbine installation • In 2010 was supplanted from top spot by China which installed over 3x the capacity of U.S. • 47 GW installed in U.S. through 2011 • Majority of capacity has been installed in past 5 years • Vulnerable to loss of Federal incentives • PTC currently expires at end of 2012 16 Sample Wind Project Lakefield Wind Project, MN • Capacity: 205.5 MW – 137 GE 1.5 MW turbines • Installed in 2011 (11 month build) • 20 year PPA between EnXco (developer) and IPL (offtaker) • Financed through leveraged lease with Union Bank & Metlife Source: Renewable Energy Magazine, 10/18/11 17 How Geothermal Electricity Generation Works Turbine & Generator Source and more information at : DOE Geothermal Technologies Program, “How a Geothermal Plant Works (Simple)” at http://www1.eere.energy.gov/geothermal/gpp_animation.html 18 Geothermal Electricity Generation in the U.S. in 2011 3,187 MW installed in US US Geothermal Hydrothermal Resource •97% in CA and Nevada •5 new/expanded plants in 2011 (91 MW) 147 confirmed projects under development in US •Capacity of ~4,116 – 4,525 MW under development •Project development activity in 13 states outside of CA and NV (Source: GEA) Very limited number of operating Source: NREL Dynamic Maps, Geothermal geothermal rigs in US (approx. 6-10) •Estimates of +1900 for onshore oil and gas (not including horizontal drilling) Source: DOE Geothermal Technologies Program, “Geothermal Technologies Program Annual Peer Review ” at http://www1.eere.energy.gov/geothermal/pdfs/gtp_2012peerreview_dhollett.pdf and Geothermal Energy Association (GEA), “Annual US Geothermal Power Production and Development Report” at http://geo- energy.org/reports/2012AnnualUSGeothermalPowerProductionandDevelopmentReport_Final.pdf 19 Sample Geothermal Project The Geysers, CA • Capacity: 1.5 GW – 18 separate power plants – 50% of U.S.
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