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T H E C E N T E R F O R Applied Economics T H E C E N T E R F O R SCHOOL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS BUSINESS The University of Kansas Supporting Regional Economic Development through Analysis and Education THE KANSAS OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY: AN ENDURING MODEL OF HIGH-TECH ENTREPRENEURSHIP Arthur P. Hall Executive Director Center for Applied Economics University of Kansas School of Business Technical Report 12-1116 November 2012 About The Center for Applied Economics The KU School of Business established the Center for Applied Economics in February of 2004. The mission of the Center for Applied Economics is to help advance the economic development of the state and region by offering economic analysis and economic education relevant for policy makers, community leaders, and other interested citi- zens. The stakeholders in the Center want to increase the amount of credible economic analysis available to decision makers in both the state and region. When policy makers, community leaders, and citizens discuss issues that may have an impact on the economic development potential of the state or region, they can benefit from a wide array of perspectives. The Center focuses on the contributions that markets and economic institutions can make to economic development. Because credibility is, in part, a function of economic literacy, the Center also promotes economics education. About the Author Arthur P. Hall is the founding Executive Director of the Center for Applied Economics at the University of Kansas School of Business. Before joining the KU School of Business, Hall was Chief Economist in the Public Affairs group of Wichita, KS-based Koch Industries, Inc. In that capacity, he worked with business leaders to define how public policy initiatives would influence the structure of the markets in which the company participates. Koch sponsored Hall’s directorship of Kansas Governor Sebelius’ Budget Efficiency Savings Teams from April 2003 until his depar- ture from the firm in February 2004. Before joining Koch Industries in May 1997, Hall was Senior Economist at the Washington, D.C.-based Tax Founda- tion, where he produced quantitative and qualitative research pertaining to the economics of taxation and acted as an economic advisor to The National Commission on Economic Growth and Tax Reform. Before that, he worked as a financial economist at the U.S. General Accounting Office. Hall has taught university-level economics at both the undergraduate and MBA level. He received his doctorate in economics from the University of Georgia and his bachelor of arts in economics from Emory University. The opinions expressed are those of the author; they should in no way be interpreted as the viewpoints of the University of Kansas (or any subunits thereof) or the Kansas Board of Regents. The Center for Applied Economics gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Kansas Oil and Gas Resource Fund. Table of Contents The Kansas Oil and Gas Industry: An Enduring Model of High-Tech Entrepreneurship ..........1 Visualizing the Model of High-Tech Entrepreneurship ...............................................................4 Understanding Global Price-Setting Mechanisms in the Context of Integrated Global Markets ...............................................................................................................12 Trends in the Global Consumption and Production of Oil ............................................14 Details Related to Oil Supply ................................................................................................17 Physical Markets and Paper Markets: Prelude to Discussion of Oil Demand ..............19 Details Related to Oil Demand ............................................................................................23 Environmental Regulations: An Explanation of the Price Spike of 2006-2008 .........24 The Co-Movement of Oil and Natural Gas Prices ...........................................................27 Entrepreneurial Cost Control through the Business of Science and Engineering .................30 The Technology of the Upstream Sector ...........................................................................31 The Business of the Upstream Sector .................................................................................35 Site Preparation, Well Drilling, and Well Completion .......................................................37 Health, Safety, and Environmental Oversight ....................................................................39 Assessing the Future: How “Unconventional” Oil and Gas Plays May Contribute to the Kansas Economy ..............................................................................................41 The Mississippian Lime Play .................................................................................................41 The Potential for Infrastructure Strains in Kansas............................................................46 Estimating Potential Economic Impacts in Kansas ..........................................................49 Coalbed Methane in Eastern Kansas ...................................................................................53 Assessing History: How the Oil and Gas Industry Has Contributed to the Kansas Economy ..............................................................................................................................56 A Brief Economic History of Oil and Gas in Kansas .....................................................57 The Upstream Sector and Kansas Gross Domestic Product ..........................................62 The Overall Oil and Gas Value Chain in Kansas ..............................................................66 A Primer on the Kansas Severance Tax (K.S.A 79-4217) ................................................71 A Primer on Kansas Ad Valorem Taxation of Oil and Gas Property ...........................72 Appendix A: ..............................................................................................................................................73 Technical Details of Mississippian Lime Simulation Model and Economic Impact Estimates ..............................................................................................................................73 Appendix B ...............................................................................................................................................75 Supplementary Data Tables .............................................................................................................75 Directory of Exhibits, Charts and Maps ..............................................................................................93 i ii The Kansas Oil and Gas Industry: An Enduring Model of High-Tech Entrepreneurship The oil game is one pioneering activity that has never had a frontier, and until the last porous stratum of rock is explored it never can have one. There would be mirth-provoking irony in a map of the United States showing the boundaries, lateral and horizontal, beyond which dogmatists have at one time or another said oil could not be found—which mental barbed-wire fences have snapped under the irrepressible urge of the . wildcatter’s boundless energy, curiosity, ambition, and skill with a string of tools. — Samuel W. Tait, Jr. 1 The renaissance in United States oil and gas produc- the imagination and ingenuity of the human mind is tion reaffirms the timeless tribute Mr. Tait made to diligently and persistently applied.”3 the nation’s petroleum entrepreneurs almost 70 years The independent oil and gas producers of Kansas have ago. The tools have changed—a lot—but the pioneer demonstrated clear diligence and persistence. They have spirit has not. Boundless entrepreneurial energy and an drilled an average of 2,750 wells per year over the past increasingly sophisticated, high-tech string of tools has 20 years, implying an average investment in the Kansas created a genuine opportunity for the United States to economy of at least $700 million annually (in 2010 become a net energy exporter instead of a net energy dollars). A group of entrepreneurial companies in the importer. Kansas helped deliver the original birth of Mid-Continent have poured decades of imagination and the U.S. oil and gas industry and now the state may help ingenuity into the quest for developing unconventional deliver the industry’s rebirth. oil and gas supplies—the shale-related oil and gas sup- Early in Kansas history, after the first oil and gas booms, plies that have recently captured the public’s attention. people fretted about depleting the state’s oil and gas High-tech entrepreneurship and economics help frame reserves.2 Similar fretting has taken place globally; the the core definitional element of “proved” oil and gas notion of “peak oil” has attracted widespread attention reserves, underscoring Dr. Youngquist’s suggestion since at least the 1950s. These ideas can seem intuitive. that oil and gas supplies are a moving target, a result of The earth is finite. entrepreneurial initiative. The U.S. Energy Informa- Yet, such mindsets inevitably underestimate the power tion Administration defines “proved reserves” as “the of economics and the relentless drive of entrepreneurs. estimated quantities which analysis of geological and Geologist Walter Youngquist captured a more apt per- engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty spective in a communication to Dan Merriam, Senior to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs Scientist Emeritus at the Kansas Geological Society:
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