二零零八熱帶氣旋tropical Cyclones in 2008
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Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR Sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ Updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET
Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET Summary Report Ongoing typhoon situation The storm had lost strength early Tuesday July 8, going from the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane to a Category 3 on the Saffir‐Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which means devastating damage is expected to occur, with major damage to well‐built framed homes, snapped or uprooted trees and power outages. It is approaching Okinawa, Japan, and is moving northwest towards South Korea and the Philippines, bringing strong winds, flooding rainfall and inundating storm surge. Typhoon Neoguri is a once‐in‐a‐decade storm and Japanese authorities have extended their highest storm alert to Okinawa's main island. The Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2013 ranked Japan as first among countries in the world for both annual and maximum potential losses due to cyclones. It is calculated that Japan loses on average up to $45.9 Billion due to cyclonic winds every year and that it can lose a probable maximum loss of $547 Billion.2 What are the most devastating cyclones to hit Okinawa in recent memory? There have been 12 damaging cyclones to hit Okinawa since 1945. Sustaining winds of 81.6 knots (151 kph), Typhoon “Winnie” caused damages of $5.8 million in August 1997. Typhoon "Bart", which hit Okinawa in October 1999 caused damages of $5.7 million. It sustained winds of 126 knots (233 kph). The most damaging cyclone to hit Japan was Super Typhoon Nida (reaching a peak intensity of 260 kph), which struck Japan in 2004 killing 287 affecting 329,556 people injuring 1,483, and causing damages amounting to $15 Billion. -
Summary of 2014 NW Pacific Typhoon Season and Verification of Authors’ Seasonal Forecasts
Summary of 2014 NW Pacific Typhoon Season and Verification of Authors’ Seasonal Forecasts Issued: 27th January 2015 by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK. Summary The 2014 NW Pacific typhoon season was characterised by activity slightly below the long-term (1965-2013) norm. The TSR forecasts over-predicted activity but mostly to within the forecast error. The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) consortium presents a validation of their seasonal forecasts for the NW Pacific basin ACE index, numbers of intense typhoons, numbers of typhoons and numbers of tropical storms in 2014. These forecasts were issued on the 6th May, 3rd July and the 5th August 2014. The 2014 NW Pacific typhoon season ran from 1st January to 31st December. Features of the 2014 NW Pacific Season • Featured 23 tropical storms, 12 typhoons, 8 intense typhoons and a total ACE index of 273. These numbers were respectively 12%, 25%, 0% and 7% below their corresponding long-term norms. Seven out of the last eight years have now had a NW Pacific ACE index below the 1965-2013 climate norm value of 295. • The peak months of August and September were unusually quiet, with only one typhoon forming within the basin (Genevieve formed in the NE Pacific and crossed into the NW Pacific basin as a hurricane). Since 1965 no NW Pacific typhoon season has seen less than two typhoons develop within the NW Pacific basin during August and September. This lack of activity in 2014 was in part caused by an unusually strong and persistent suppressing phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. -
Improved Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from NOAA: Lessons Learned and Path Forward
Improved global tropical cyclone forecasts from NOAA: Lessons learned and path forward Dr. Vijay Tallapragada Chief, Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch & HFIP Development Manager Typhoon Seminar, JMA, Tokyo, Japan. NOAA National Weather Service/NCEP/EMC, USA January 6, 2016 Typhoon Seminar JMA, January 6, 2016 1/90 Rapid Progress in Hurricane Forecast Improvements Key to Success: Community Engagement & Accelerated Research to Operations Effective and accelerated path for transitioning advanced research into operations Typhoon Seminar JMA, January 6, 2016 2/90 Significant improvements in Atlantic Track & Intensity Forecasts HWRF in 2012 HWRF in 2012 HWRF in 2015 HWRF HWRF in 2015 in 2014 Improvements of the order of 10-15% each year since 2012 What it takes to improve the models and reduce forecast errors??? • Resolution •• ResolutionPhysics •• DataResolution Assimilation Targeted research and development in all areas of hurricane modeling Typhoon Seminar JMA, January 6, 2016 3/90 Lives Saved Only 36 casualties compared to >10000 deaths due to a similar storm in 1999 Advanced modelling and forecast products given to India Meteorological Department in real-time through the life of Tropical Cyclone Phailin Typhoon Seminar JMA, January 6, 2016 4/90 2014 DOC Gold Medal - HWRF Team A reflection on Collaborative Efforts between NWS and OAR and international collaborations for accomplishing rapid advancements in hurricane forecast improvements NWS: Vijay Tallapragada; Qingfu Liu; William Lapenta; Richard Pasch; James Franklin; Simon Tao-Long -
Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby), Dec
Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby), Dec. 9, 2014 CDIR No. 6 BLUF – Implications to PACOM No DOD requirements anticipated PACOM Joint Liaison Group re-deploying from Philippines within next 72 hours (PACOM J35) Typhoon Hagupit – Stats & Facts Summary: (The following times in this report are Phil. local time unless otherwise specified) Current Status: Typhoon Hagupit has weakened into a tropical depression as it heads west into the West Philippine Sea towards Vietnam. All public storm warning signals have been lifted. Storm expected to head out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Thursday (11 DEC) early AM. Est. rainfall is 5 – 15 mm per hour (Moderate – heavy) within the 200 km of the storm. (NDRRMC, Bulletin No. 23) Local officials reported nearly 13,000 houses were destroyed and more than 22,300 were partially damaged in Eastern Samar province, where Hagupit first hit as a CAT 3 typhoon on 6 DEC. (Reuters) Deputy Presidential Spokesperson Key Concerns & Trends Abigail Valte said so far, Dolores appears worst hit. (GPH) Domestic air and sea travel has resumed, markets reopened • GPH and the international humanitarian community are and state workers returned to their offices. Some shopping capable of meeting virtually all disaster response requirements. Major malls were open but schools remained closed. actions and activities include: The privately run National Grid Corp said nearly two million Assessments are ongoing to determine the full extent of the homes across central Philippines and southern Luzon remain typhoon’s impact; reports so far indicate the scale and severity without power. (Reuters) Twenty provinces in six regions of the impact of Hagupit was not as great as initially feared. -
Wang, M., M. Xue, and K. Zhao (2016), September 2008
PUBLICATIONS Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres RESEARCH ARTICLE The impact of T-TREC-retrieved wind and radial 10.1002/2015JD024001 velocity data assimilation using EnKF Key Points: and effects of assimilation window • T-TREC-retrieved wind and radial velocity data are assimilated using an on the analysis and prediction ensemble Kalman filter • The relative impacts of two data sets of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) on analysis and prediction changes with assimilation windows Mingjun Wang1,2, Ming Xue1,2,3, and Kun Zhao1 • The combination of retrieved wind and radial velocity produces better 1Key Laboratory for Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, analyses and forecasts China, 2Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, Norman, Oklahoma, USA, 3School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA Correspondence to: M. Xue, Abstract This study examines the relative impact of assimilating T-TREC-retrieved winds (VTREC)versusradial [email protected] velocity (Vr) on the analysis and forecast of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The VTREC and Vr data at 30 min intervals are assimilated into the ARPS model at 3 km grid spacing over four different Citation: assimilation windows that cover, respectively, 0000–0200, 0200–0400, 0400–0600, and 0000–0600 UTC, 28 Wang, M., M. Xue, and K. Zhao (2016), September 2008. The assimilation of VTREC data produces better analyses of the typhoon structure and intensity The impact of T-TREC-retrieved wind and radial velocity data assimilation than the assimilation of Vr data during the earlier assimilation windows, but during the later assimilation using EnKF and effects of assimilation windows when the coverage of Vr data on the typhoon from four Doppler radars is much improved, the window on the analysis and prediction assimilation of V outperforms V data. -
The Influence of Assimilating Dropsonde Data on Typhoon Track
908 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 139 The Influence of Assimilating Dropsonde Data on Typhoon Track and Midlatitude Forecasts MARTIN WEISSMANN,* FLORIAN HARNISCH,* CHUN-CHIEH WU,1 PO-HSIUNG LIN,1 YOICHIRO OHTA,# KOJI YAMASHITA,# YEON-HEE KIM,@ EUN-HEE JEON,@ TETSUO NAKAZAWA,& AND SIM ABERSON** * Deutsches Zentrum fu¨r Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut fu¨r Physik der Atmospha¨re, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany 1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan # Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan @ National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Agency, Seoul, South Korea & Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan ** NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 9 February 2010, in final form 21 April 2010) ABSTRACT A unique dataset of targeted dropsonde observations was collected during The Observing System Re- search and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in the autumn of 2008. The campaign was supplemented by an enhancement of the operational Dropsonde Ob- servations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) program. For the first time, up to four different aircraft were available for typhoon observations and over 1500 additional soundings were collected. This study investigates the influence of assimilating additional observations during the two major typhoon events of T-PARC on the typhoon track forecast by the global models of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Additionally, the influence of T-PARC observations on ECMWF midlatitude forecasts is investigated. All models show an improving tendency of typhoon track forecasts, but the degree of improvement varied from about 20% to 40% in NCEP and WRF to a comparably low influence in ECMWF and JMA. -
Appendix 8: Damages Caused by Natural Disasters
Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Draft Finnal Report APPENDIX 8: DAMAGES CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTERS A8.1 Flood & Typhoon Table A8.1.1 Record of Flood & Typhoon (Cambodia) Place Date Damage Cambodia Flood Aug 1999 The flash floods, triggered by torrential rains during the first week of August, caused significant damage in the provinces of Sihanoukville, Koh Kong and Kam Pot. As of 10 August, four people were killed, some 8,000 people were left homeless, and 200 meters of railroads were washed away. More than 12,000 hectares of rice paddies were flooded in Kam Pot province alone. Floods Nov 1999 Continued torrential rains during October and early November caused flash floods and affected five southern provinces: Takeo, Kandal, Kampong Speu, Phnom Penh Municipality and Pursat. The report indicates that the floods affected 21,334 families and around 9,900 ha of rice field. IFRC's situation report dated 9 November stated that 3,561 houses are damaged/destroyed. So far, there has been no report of casualties. Flood Aug 2000 The second floods has caused serious damages on provinces in the North, the East and the South, especially in Takeo Province. Three provinces along Mekong River (Stung Treng, Kratie and Kompong Cham) and Municipality of Phnom Penh have declared the state of emergency. 121,000 families have been affected, more than 170 people were killed, and some $10 million in rice crops has been destroyed. Immediate needs include food, shelter, and the repair or replacement of homes, household items, and sanitation facilities as water levels in the Delta continue to fall. -
Structural Characteristics of T-PARC Typhoon Sinlaku During Its Extratropical Transition
MAY 2014 Q U I N T I N G E T A L . 1945 Structural Characteristics of T-PARC Typhoon Sinlaku during Its Extratropical Transition JULIAN F. QUINTING Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany MICHAEL M. BELL* AND PATRICK A. HARR Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 1 SARAH C. JONES Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany (Manuscript received 28 September 2013, in final form 27 December 2013) ABSTRACT The structure and the environment of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) were investigated during its life cycle in The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC). On 20 September 2008, during the transformation stage of Sinlaku’s extratropical transition (ET), research aircraft equipped with dual-Doppler radar and dropsondes documented the structure of the con- vection surrounding Sinlaku and low-level frontogenetical processes. The observational data obtained were assimilated with the recently developed Spline Analysis at Mesoscale Utilizing Radar and Aircraft In- strumentation (SAMURAI) software tool. The resulting analysis provides detailed insight into the ET system and allows specific features of the system to be identified, including deep convection, a stratiform pre- cipitation region, warm- and cold-frontal structures, and a dry intrusion. The analysis offers valuable information about the interaction of the features identified within the transitioning tropical cyclone. The existence of dry midlatitude air above warm-moist tropical air led to strong potential instability. Quasigeo- strophic diagnostics suggest that forced ascent during warm frontogenesis triggered the deep convective development in this potentially unstable environment. -
An Incoherent Subseasonal Pattern of Tropical Convective and Zonal Wind
An incoherent subseasonal pattern of tropical convective and zonal wind anomalies contributed to weak signals on both the Wheeler-Hendon (RMM) and CPC MJO indices during the past week. The spatial pattern of upper-level velocity potential anomalies exhibited influences from higher frequency modes, such as tropical cyclone activity over the eastern Pacific and anomalous divergence over Africa. During the past several days, however, these conflicting signals have weakened. Additionally, constructive interference of a strong equatorial Rossby Wave (ERW) and a Kelvin Wave over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent contributed to an ongoing large area of enhanced convection. The RMM Index has responded to this evolution and is currently projecting a signal in Phase-4. Dynamical model MJO index forecasts are consistent with a rapid propagation of this signal eastward over the Maritime Continent during the upcoming week, likely due to influence from the Kelvin Wave. Beyond this period, however, the GFS weakens the MJO signal while the CFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models continue a slower eastward propagation over the western Pacific. There is uncertainty whether the enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent associated with the interactions between a more transient Kelvin Wave and the ERW will evolve into a more robust subseasonal signal on the MJO time scale. Due to the consensus among numerous dynamical models, however, impacts of MJO propagation from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific were considered for this outlook. Tropical cyclones developed over both the eastern and western Pacific basins during the past week. Super Typhoon Neoguri, the third typhoon of 2014 and the first major cyclone, developed east of the Philippines on 3 July. -
Pacific Islands Forest Health Highlights 2016
PACIFIC ISLANDS APRIL 2017 Insect Activity . 1 Invasive Plants . 6 Disease Activity . 7 Contacts & Additional Information . .. 8 Forest2016 highlights Health VISIT US ON THE WEB: WWW.FS.USDA.GOV/MAIN/R5/FOREST-GRASSLANDHEALTH Cycad Aulacaspis Scale (CAS) Forest Resource Summary Cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS), Aulacaspis yasumatsui, invaded Guam The US-affiliated Islands of the western Pacific cover an area larger in 2003. Since initial detection, the scale, and plant health of the than the continental United States, with a total land mass of 965 native cycad Cycas micronesica, has been monitored by Dr. Thomas square miles. The area includes the Territories of American Samoa Marler, University of Guam (UOG), in part, with funds from the and Guam, the states of Chuuk, Kosrae, Pohnpei, and Yap in the Cooperative Lands Forest Health Management Program (USDA Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), the Republics of Palau and the Forest Service, R5). In November 2015 Cycas micronesica was added Marshall Islands, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana to the Threatened list under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Islands (CNMI). Approximately 325,000 acres are forested. Dr. Marler’s monitoring of cycad populations also includes those on Rota, Yap, Tinian and Palau. His 2016 assessment of survival and health in the permanent plots on Guam indicated mortality was similar to previous years, with an absolute mortality rate of 20 trees per hectare. From 2010 to the end of 2016 he estimates 14 trees are dying per hectare per year and that tree density will fall below 200 trees per hectare for the first time during 2017. -
TUESDAY 16* Philippines 3,479* 1,167*
TUESDAY TYPHOON KALMAEGI 19 NOV 2019 PHILIPPINES 1230 HRS (UTC +7) FLASH UPDATE #2 Population Exposed (Estimated exposure by the PDC) Map source: Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Initial Effects* *Estimations are based on data reported/confirmed by National Disaster 3,479* 1,167* 15* 16* Management Organisations of each AFFECTED DISPLACED FLOODED DAMAGED respective ASEAN Member State PERSONS PERSONS BARANGAYS HOUSES and other verified sources Philippines • Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (locally named RAMON in the Philippines), which strengthened into a Severe Tropical Storm on 18 November 2019, has now further developed into a Typhoon and currently moving slowly west-northwest towards Babuyan Islands, north of Luzon, Philippines as of 10:00 (UTC+7). • According to forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Typhoon KALMAEGI is moving at about 4 kph, and is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours. Based on the current forecast (the storm's center and path), the Typhoon is within 112 km from northern seaboard of the Philippines, and the center is expected to make landfall in the afternoon or evening today, 19 November 2019, with sustained winds of about 148 kph. • The Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) stated that moderate with frequent heavy rains will prevail over Batanes, northern portion of Cagayan (including the Babuyan Islands), Apayao and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte provinces. • The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flood incidents, ranging from 0.5m to 1m of flood water, in 15 barangays/villages in Camarines Sur and Romblon provinces due to persistent heavy rains associated with the typhoon. -
Report on UN ESCAP / WMO Typhoon Committee Members Disaster Management System
Report on UN ESCAP / WMO Typhoon Committee Members Disaster Management System UNITED NATIONS Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific January 2009 Disaster Management ˆ ` 2009.1.29 4:39 PM ˘ ` 1 ¿ ‚fiˆ •´ lp125 1200DPI 133LPI Report on UN ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members Disaster Management System By National Institute for Disaster Prevention (NIDP) January 2009, 154 pages Author : Dr. Waonho Yi Dr. Tae Sung Cheong Mr. Kyeonghyeok Jin Ms. Genevieve C. Miller Disaster Management ˆ ` 2009.1.29 4:39 PM ˘ ` 2 ¿ ‚fiˆ •´ lp125 1200DPI 133LPI WMO/TD-No. 1476 World Meteorological Organization, 2009 ISBN 978-89-90564-89-4 93530 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspon- dence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box No. 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 40 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.