Isaac Newton, Daniel Defoe and the Dynamics of Financial Bubbles SCIENCE SOURCE SCIENCE Traveler1116
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Isaac Newton, Daniel Defoe and the Dynamics of Financial Bubbles SCIENCE SOURCE SCIENCE traveler1116 By Andrew Odlyzko historical context. The public was less edu- groups having wildly divergent percep- cated than today, and there was far less of tions of what reported events mean. This A famous anecdote tells of Sir Isaac both finance theory and of general infor- is often blamed on the overabundance of Newton realizing large gains in the early mation about business and the economy. information. However, similar phenom- stages of the South Sea Bubble, but then On the eve of the South Sea Bubble, ena can be found three centuries ago, in losing all that and more by buying back in Britain was beginning to enjoy the fruits an era of information scarcity. This can be at the top. On the other hand, the fact that of the peace that came after the long and observed in politics, as well as in reactions the author of Robinson Crusoe was also debilitating War of the Spanish Succes- to the South Sea Bubble. associated with that episode of extreme sion. It was widely ranked with Holland as Like today, information systems were investor exuberance is little known. And a world leader in technological and com- being revolutionized. The press was that is a pity, since Daniel Defoe’s words, mercial development. International trade undergoing rapid development, following as well as Newton’s actions, are very illu- was booming, but not without contro- the removal of some of the shackles of gov- minating about an important aspect of versy. Weavers were rioting against the ernment censorship two decades earlier. bubbles that deserves much more atten- imports of inexpensive Indian textiles, London was full of a variety of publica- tion. This is the social network element, and one of Defoe’s many jobs was writ- tions, as entrepreneurial publishers strove involving information dissemination ing a newspaper set up by the weavers to to find profitable niches, often by catering among investors. What did they know, push their case for protection. Politics to political parties, or the government, how did they know it, how accurate was was extremely partisan, with widespread that paid them secret subsidies. Yet the what they thought they knew and how suspicions and accusations of treason. commercial newsletter sector, distributing did they interact with each other? Some were well-founded, as there had large numbers of hand-duplicated cop- The South Sea Bubble of 1720 had all been a major Jacobite invasion in 1715, and ies, continued to thrive and served as an the essential ingredients that make invest- a smaller uprising in 1719, both aiming to essential feed for the press, especially for ing today challenging: political turmoil, restore the Stuart dynasty. the provincial press that was in its infancy, rapid globalization, business innovation, Today the traditional press is in decline, with just a handful of papers. new communication technologies with an and social networks and related upstarts abundance of “fake news” and novel finan- are beginning to dominate. We are forced cial products that befuddled investors. to grapple with the issues of “echo cham- Those securities might seem simple to us, bers” and “filter bubbles,” which produce Portraits of Sir Isaac Newton (left) and Daniel Defoe but this has to be considered in proper the “post-truth” phenomenon of different (right), both investors in the South Sea Company. 18 FINANCIAL HISTORY | Winter 2018 | www.MoAF.org We can monitor the torrents of infor- South Sea Stock Prices in 1720 mation that flow through traditional news 000 media, as well as some modern systems , such as Facebook and Twitter. But we 1 have limited ability to understand those flows, and we have only a vague sense of what goes over some other media, such as encrypted chat sessions. We face 800 similar hurdles when studying the South Sea Bubble. We do have large collections of printed material from that period, as well as a few personal letters and the like. However, all available accounts argue that 600 a key role in the transmission and collec- tive processing of information at that time was played by coffee houses. That is where Price (£) people gathered to read the papers, gossip 400 Newton buys for Hall and analyze what they had heard. We have very little knowledge about how this oper- Newton buys ated. Thus, just like today, we have to make do with fragmentary information on how Newton sells investment decisions were made. 200 Thomas Guy sells Having to deal with shadowy fragments of reality does not mean we cannot obtain enlightening insights from comparisons of the events of three centuries ago with Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct today. One feature that appears to char- 0 acterize bubbles is greatly increased gull- 246810 ibility among investors, as well as policy makers. As I write this article in early 2018, Month we observe initial coin offerings (ICOs), in which investors rush to throw their money after the crash through diplomatic pres - been studied intensively. What we can do at promoters who rarely offer business sure on Austria. But there is far more that is to exploit those works from a financial plans, much less plausible ones. The simi- can be learned, in particular about the history point of view. larity to the South Sea Bubble story of a activities of individual investors, the infor- Here we briefly discuss some of the his- company “for carrying on an undertaking mation that was available, how it was used torical nuggets that have been uncovered of great advantage, but nobody to know and, in most cases, how it was not used. recently, primarily about Daniel Defoe, what it is” is striking. (It has to be said that The newspapers and pamphlets from Isaac Newton and Thomas Guy. Defoe has while the 1720 story appears embellished that period have already been mined by not attracted much attention in financial from its apocryphal origins, it does not previous investigators, but not completely. history. But his economics, that in Rob- exaggerate too greatly the promotional And there are sources that have barely inson Crusoe as well as his other profuse atmosphere of that time.) What this sug- been scratched. Those include complete writings, has already been studied. He was gests is that we might perhaps be able to records of trading in many of the main an extraordinarily prolific and versatile develop a measure of public gullibility that securities on the London market. They also writer. His works are especially valuable might serve as a warning sign of bubbles, include a substantial body of modern pub- because he had a very modern mindset, in just as high levels of debt do. lications about the history of the British terms of how he viewed and described the While there is already extensive litera- press and the history of English literature. world. This led historian G.M. Trevelyan to ture on the South Sea Bubble, much more Many of the famous literary figures entitle the chapter on the early 18th century can be learned about that episode. The from that period, such as Daniel Defoe, in one of his books as “Defoe’s England,” in standard accounts tell us about the brib- Jonathan Swift, Richard Steele and Alex- recognition of this writer’s value in creating ery and fraud committed by the South Sea ander Pope, were involved in the South Sea and describing that era. Unlike most of his Company, its manipulation of the market, Bubble, either as investors or as propagan- literary contemporaries, Defoe was keenly the price record and many other colorful dists. Since they were literary figures, they interested in commerce and finance, based aspects of this multisided affair. wrote extensively, unlike people in finance, on personal experience in those areas. In particular, they include the British who typically left few traces. Further, since Defoe appears to have played a role, government’s successful efforts to suppress they are now famous, their writings have possibly a very important one, in the some of the extremely embarrassing facts www.MoAF.org | Winter 2018 | FINANCIAL HISTORY 19 creation of the South Sea Company, also strong attacks on the South Sea proj- which was at the center of the bubble. ect in other papers that are sometimes Contrary to popular reputation, this ven- claimed to be by Defoe. The attributions ture at its start in 1711 was a very innova- there are less certain, but not impos- tive financial experiment that turned out sible, as he was known to employ his to be extremely successful. Essentially, it talents simultaneously on several sides of converted a large volume of British gov- an issue. With more research, we might ernment short-term debt into long-term obtain more clarity on the positions that bonds. It continued prospering through Defoe took on the South Sea project. the 1710s, and it was only the Bubble Half a dozen years after the collapse of of 1720, portrayed in the price chart, the bubble, in his book The Complete Eng- that gave it the notorious reputation it lish Tradesman, he placed the blame for the still carries. During the earlier halcyon debacle on investors in general: “Avarice days of the 1710s, the South Sea Com- is the ruin of many people besides trades- pany attracted many solid investors, men; and I might give the late South-sea such as Newton and Guy. In addition, calamity for an example, in which the investors in the South Sea Company longest heads were most over-reached, who did nothing during the bubble not so much by the wit or cunning of emerged from that episode with signif- those they had to deal with, as by the secret icant profits, as there was a substantial promptings of their own avarice.” Ponzi element to this scheme.