Environmental Scan Okanagan College

Environmental Scan Page 1

Executive Summary

Okanagan College has made substantial progress in this past transition year. It has achieved a number of milestones.

Quick Facts • 4,679 Students in 115 degree, diploma, certificate and apprenticeship programs • More than 16,000 registrations in Continuing Studies • 4 major campuses and 3 smaller centres • 376 international students • 817 Employees • $65.6 million annual budget • Serving a regional population of more than 350,000 • $319,141 in student awards and bursaries

Within the next five years the college has an opportunity to enhance many systems and processes to improve the support we provide to students and employees. As a learning organization we can involve our communities, employers, partners, employees and students to develop communities of learning. We have the opportunity to develop an aggressive and ongoing marketing program that builds on our differences and promotes a college that transforms lives and communities.

We are encountering more competition from both public and private post- secondary institutions in both classroom and distance delivery. The entrance of UBCO into the regional market will continue to challenge us to differentiate ourselves in the post-secondary marketplace.

Population increases are evident throughout the region. We are experiencing strong economic growth and low unemployment rates. Numbers of self-employed workers in Canada doubled from 1976 to 2002, and our region experienced similar growth. The dominate sectors in the college region vary, but tourism, hospitality and retail employ more workers than any other sector.

Enrolments in K - 12 are declining, and forecasts for the next twelve years indicate significant declines in students graduating from Grade 12. These declining enrolments may require changes to our marketing and recruiting strategies.

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Our college enrolments were stronger than expected in Kelowna this year, lower than forecast in Vernon, with Salmon Arm and Penticton meeting enrolment targets. Further research will be required to discern the reasons for lower enrolments at the Vernon campus.

Our regional secondary and post-secondary education completion levels are lower than the provincial average, and consequently we may be in a position to further recruit individuals who wish to complete secondary or post-secondary credentials. We also have an average family income level slightly lower than the provincial average which may increase demand for financial aid.

The Ministry of Advanced Education has developed an overview of key factors influencing post-secondary education in BC. The Ministry confirms that seven to ten new jobs will require some form of post-secondary education or training within the next few years. Population aging, increased immigration, and larger labour force participation rates by women and aboriginal people will change the face of our work force. These labour force changes will be underscored by increasing skill shortages in many sectors and occupations. 1 Okanagan College

1.1 Mandate

As enabled by the College and Institute Act, the mandate of OC is to provide comprehensive courses of study at the first and second year level of baccalaureate studies, applied degree programs, post-secondary education or training at the diploma or certificate level, adult basic education programs, and continuing education programs and courses.

1.2 Overview

On July 1, 2005 Okanagan University College transitioned into two new institutions: the new Okanagan College and the University of British Columbia Okanagan (UBCO). OC consists of four regional campuses: Salmon Arm, Vernon, Kelowna and Penticton, as well as educational centres in Oliver, Summerland, Armstrong and Revelstoke. In addition, OC has a partnership with Northern Lights College in Dawson Creek for the Aircraft Maintenance Engineer Program offered at the Vernon Campus.

The new OC offers more than 50 degree, diploma and certificate programs. These programs are divided into academic, developmental, trades, technology, continuing studies, and vocational programs. With the expected addition of 1,000 new spaces by 2010, OC is dedicated to meeting the needs of the region’s residents and employers with an expanded array of world class educational training programs.

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1.3 Managing the transition

Finance • Developed and negotiated funding for a 2005-06 operating budget of $57.4 million ($65.6 million on an annualized basis) – April 2005 • Secured provincial funding of $8 million to finance transition-related costs such as: o $1.2 million to expand library collection at all four campuses o $1.5 million to renovate the Library and convert the third floor to faculty offices, student space and instructional space o $3.9 million to build nine new labs in Kelowna o $250,000 to expand and renovate the Bookstore o 300 new parking stalls on the Kelowna Campus o $20,000 to create an office for the Executive and for Program Dean in Vernon • Created and submitted five year budget plan to bridge projected operating gap by 2009-2010

Programs • Launched the College with more than 20 new or expanded programs, affecting all four regions. New developments included: o Expansion of Salmon Arm Business Administration to include second year o Addition of another annual intake for Vernon’s Aircraft Maintenance Engineer program o New dual credit programs with the school district in Penticton o New Adult Academic and Career Preparation courses for all four regions o Addition of diploma-level certifications for Rehabilitation Therapist, Early Childhood Education and Human Service Worker programs o Increased capacity in Electrical and Welding Trades programs o New programs for Trades Technology Teachers and Advanced Culinary Arts o Expanded capacity in third and fourth-year Business Administration • Increased College capacity by the equivalent of over 300 full-time student spaces with the funds provided by the government for expansion by just 190 spaces • Exceeded our goal for Full-Time Equivalent students by as much as 10% for 2005-06:

Facilities • Completed 53 capital projects worth over $8 million, primarily in a four- month period during spring and summer 2005. Projects included: o 14 additional instructional spaces, 100 offices, 300 parking spaces in order to accommodate 710 additional students at the Kelowna Campus

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o Additional office space in Vernon for Portfolio Dean and support staff o New International Centre in Vernon o Relocation and expansion of Learning Centre in Kelowna o Movement of various offices in Kelowna to concentrate direct services to students in central, accessible location • Identified capital needs for 2006-07 on all campuses and began planning, including negotiations with Ministry of Advanced Education and consideration of off-site locations

1.4 Employees

OC has a total of 813 employees, consisting of: Administrators 55 Program Administrators 23 Faculty Association members 188 BCGEU Support staff 332 Excluded support staff 10 BCGEU vocational instructors 205

Many of our employees are new. Our administrators reflect an aging demographic that will necessitate succession planning in the near future.

1.5 Geography

The total land area of the OC Region is 33,272 Square kilometers representing 3.6 per cent of BC’s land base. The region is about 5.9 times the size of Prince Edward Island. The population density is 11 persons per square kilometre.

1.6 Enrolment and FTEs

1.6.1 2005/06 Enrolments Table 1 indicates 2005/06 enrolments (as of November 2005) by program area. Our college enrolments were stronger than expected in Kelowna this year, but have declined in the other three campuses. Further research will be required to discern the reasons for lower enrolments in these regions.

Table 9.0 2005/06 FTE’s Salmon Discipline DE/Other Kelowna Penticton Arm Vernon Total Foundational Programming 25 252.0 137.8 59.5 112.0 586.3 Arts Programming 23.4 261.5 64.3 .63.8 145.5 558.5

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Business Programming 90.2 905.9 71.4 83.0 156.2 1306.7 Science 3.8 95.6 10.9 10.9 43.2 164.4 Technologies 1.3 255.6 0.4 257.2 Health 168.5 15.2 20 203.8 Social Development 98.3 98.3 Apprenticeship 963.0 963 Eltt/Pre- Apprenticeship- Certificate 333.9 40.0 373.9 Continuing Studies 112.8. 70.3 47.1 51.6 110.3 392.1 Totals 256.5 3404.6 346.7 288.8 607.6 4904.3

1.6.2 2005 Student Enrolment Data

Highlights: Overall 53 per cent of OC students are female, and the average student age is 25 with a standard deviation (SD) of 15.96. The average age of female students is 26 (9.49 SD), and the average age of male students is 24 (7.37 SD). Full-time students’ average age is 23 years (SD 7.54) and 47 per cent of full time students are female. Part-time students are older with an average age of 30 (SD 12.06) and more likely to be female 62 per cent. The youngest students attend Kelowna and Vernon campuses with an average age of 24 (SD of 7.44 and 9.03, respectively).

Student Female: Average Standard Major Campus Count Male Age Deviation Ratio Distance 173 1.93:1 30.5 9.66 Kelowna 3,167 .90:1 24.3 7.44 Penticton 465 1.75:1 27.7 11.11 Revelstoke 2 35.0 1.41 Salmon Arm 281 2.19:1 27.1 11.94 Study Abroad 7 22.1 2.34 Vernon 625 1.96:1 25.0 9.03 Overall: 4,720 1.15:1 25.1 8.63

This information was extracted from the Banner system and includes complete records only. Students with inaccurate birth dates are not included.

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1.6.3 Okanagan College FTE Projections for 2005-2010 The Ministry of Advanced Education is providing funding at a level that it believes is appropriate to support the range of programs being offered by OC. Associated with the Ministry’s funding commitment is an expectation for the provision of a multi-year increase in post-secondary student access.

2 Competition

2.1 Introduction

Competition among post-secondary institutions has grown in the past decade and will continue to grow. Between 2004 and 2010, the BC Government will add 25,000 new student spaces at colleges, university-colleges, universities and institutes across the province. These additional spaces will mean: more student opportunities, decreased study costs, expanded supply of skilled workers, increased research and increased jobs and investment.

Our closer post-secondary competitors are not our only competition. We know that many public post-secondary institutions actively recruit in this region. Typically they recruit Grade 12 graduates, and the demographics suggest that this is declining population in our region.

However, we also collaborate with many post-secondary institutions, and we need to consider ways of managing both collaboration and competition. We can continue to work with other institutions to expand opportunities and access for our students.

The private post-secondary institutions typically recruit from the adult market, and are also in direct competition with OC for adult students. This is especially critical as our students’ average age is 25.1.

The range and scope of our competitors means that we will need an aggressive marketing campaign to differentiate ourselves from our competitors. We will need not only to recruit new students, but to actively develop and manage an enrolment management campaign that retains our current students, recruits alumni, and continues developing an active alumni association. In addition, we need to actively maintain and develop information about our competitors so that we can identify gaps and opportunities.

The following is a brief summary of some of our regional competitors and partners.

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2.2 Public Post-Secondary

Thompson Rivers University (TRU) actively recruits students from our region in Trades, Business, University Transfer, Health and Human Services, ACCP, and offers a range of degree programs and a full campus life experience. They have a target of 5,756 student spaces (excluding industry training spaces) for 06/07 and a target of 5,890 for 07/08. TRU expects to grant 1,637 degrees in 06/07 and 1,660 degrees in 07/08. The addition of Open College/Open University degrees offered in flexible delivery modes will add to their ability to recruit students from our region, and from our college.

University of BC Okanagan (UBCO), with its increasing presence and facilities in Kelowna is a direct competitor for recruiting students from our region and our institution. Their recent announcement, “UBC Okanagan guarantees admission for Fall 2006 to Grade 12 students with a minimum admission average of 75% and college students with a minimum 2.0 GPA” may further entice Grade 12 graduates and current OC students to choose UBCO rather than OC. UBCO competes in offering degree programs, including business management, is working on an engineering degree, and will be adding many graduate and undergraduate programs in the coming years.

BCIT has a long-standing partnership with Rutland Secondary School and School District 23. Rutland students have been able to complete Grade 12 requirements while earning post-secondary credits through BCIT and can take pre-requisites for the avionics and structures programs while still in school at Rutland. They can also take courses in computer systems, forestry, and industrial electronics. BCIT’s Kelowna Aerospace Campus, located in the newly built Kelowna Flightcraft hangar, will provide training in avionics and structures.

Nicola Valley Institute of Technology (NVIT) in Merritt is an Aboriginal Institution offering certificates, diplomas and associate degrees. NVIT is proud of its diverse First Nations student population. With over 75% of its student body coming from outside of the Nicola Valley and across Western Canada, NVIT has a breadth of Aboriginal traditions and values throughout the student body and Institute.

There has been a consistent increase in the number of institutions and private agencies providing on-line access to education and training. There are very few BC and Alberta Colleges who are not offering some type of distance learning. In particular, Athabasca, University of Lethbridge and Royal Roads all aggressively recruit students from the Okanagan Region. The emergence and acceptance of on-line learning has significantly increased the competition in post secondary education.

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2.3 Private Post-Secondary

Sprott-Shaw College in Kelowna, Vernon and Penticton offers a full range of programs from certificates to degrees and directly competes with OC in nearly every program area. They offer courses toward a Bachelor of Business Administration; Tourism Management and Tourism and Hospitality Management, a range of Health programs including Practical Nursing, Community Support Worker, Resident Care Attendant and Early Childhood Education. The have a Residential Trades Framing program, a number of Digital Arts programs and an International Program. Although these programs are expensive, the number of student intakes per year provides much more flexibility than the traditional academic year at OC.

Trend College in Kelowna also offers programs in: Business and Hotel and Tourism Management; Computer Technology; Resident Care Assistant; and six levels of English Training/ESL. Vancouver Career College has programs in Healthcare; Computer Technology; and Business and Hospitality Management. There is also a Tourism Training Institute offering a range of Tourism and Business programs. Other private colleges such as Power Concepts, Academy of Learning, and Focus Training offer courses and programs that compete with many of our college offerings. There are also a range of international language schools throughout our region.

The Centre for Arts and Technology in Kelowna is affiliated with campuses in Halifax and Fredericton, and offers a range of programs: Audio Engineering/Audio Radio Technology, Business, Computer Animation, Computer Drafting/Design, Computer Networking, Computer Programmer/ Analyst, Computer Repair, Desktop Publishing, E-Commerce, Entrepreneurship, Graphic Design, Internet, Multimedia, Radio/Television/ Film/Music, and Web Design.

According to the website of the Private Career Training Institutions Agency of BC (http://www.pctia.bc.ca/search/AccreditedInstitutions.htm) there are currently 27 private post secondary institutions operating in the Okanagan Valley. The break down is as follows; 1 in Penticton, 17 in Kelowna, 5 in Vernon and 1 in Salmon Arm. 3 Economic

3.1 Introduction

Economic indicators nationally, provincially and regionally indicate strong economic growth, low unemployment rates and increasing skill shortages in many sectors. For OC this has several impacts. A strong economy provides opportunities to develop partnerships in fund-raising and program development with local employers and employer associations. Low

Designing Our Future Finalscan.feb8 Feb. 8, 2006 Environmental Scan Page 9 unemployment rates may cause some decline in enrolments or early leavers because of high demand for entry level and skilled employees. Skill shortages allow for the development of programs to meet employer, sector and occupation demands. For example, the construction industry continues to show strong growth, encouraging OC to develop new programs, and to continue supporting its successful residential construction program.

Labour shortages means there are increasing opportunities for employment within the trades for people without any formal skills development. This may have an impact on the demand for entry-level trades training, but will have a positive impact on the demand for apprenticeship training, and for focused, short-term trade-specific training.

The continued and sometimes early retirement of baby boomers will put pressure on the supply side of labour market equation. As birth rates decline and baby boomers retire, we will be increasingly reliant on immigration to meet our labour market needs. This provides a significant opportunity for OC graduates to find career related employment and to establish new business ventures. This also provides opportunities to recruit international students.

Some of the identified trends also provide important data for OC. Women, new immigrants and aboriginal students will be an important part of our recruiting strategy. Many of our students will consider self-employment, and our programs need to include an entrepreneurial component, and integration with areas such as our business program.

Many regional employers are experiencing increasing difficulty in recruiting and developing supervisory and management employees. We have an opportunity through Continuing Studies and our Business Program to fill these skill shortages.

The 2010 Olympics will provide additional opportunities for funding for programs to train employees and employers to meet the demands created by this international event. Incremental growth from labour demand directly related to the 2010 Olympics is expected to be 132,000 person years of employment from 2003 to 2015. Rosyln Kunin & Associates predicts that 4 out of 10 job opportunities from incremental growth 2003-2015 will be outside of the Lower Mainland and Southwest areas of the province (2010 Labour Demand Analysis: research projects by Roslyn Kunin & Associates, Inc.). Furthermore there are a number of major developmental projects in the Okanagan Region (i.e. The Rise Housing Development in Vernon, the planned Ski Resort in Revelstoke and McKinley Landing, the expansion of the Penticton Convention Centre that will contribute to the projected skills shortage in the Okanagan region).

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Population growth throughout the region may mitigate the reduced enrolment in our K – 12 schools. Our regional population demographics demonstrate an aging population, and consequently require a recruiting strategy that addresses the aging of our student population. If our average student is 25.1, then we need to continue recruiting students from this demographic, as well as from Grade 12 graduates.

The Okanagan Partnership recently completed the regions first cluster based competitiveness strategy. For the Okanagan, the following clusters have been identified: aviation, wine and beverage, knowledge services, tourism, value- added agriculture, life sciences and forestry and value-added wood products. OC has played a pivotal role in the evolution of the Okanagan Partnership strategy, and will continue to monitor the results of the cluster analysis and develop programs that will respond to the needs identified.

Individual disciplines and faculties have opportunities to adapt current programs and develop new courses and programs that meet labour market, employer, community and student needs.

Aboriginal populations are one of the few populations in Canada with significant birth rates. Aboriginal communities are also seeking partnerships with post- secondary institutions that support aboriginal students to succeed. We have developed some partnerships, but there is a substantial interest by aboriginal communities in forging new partnerships.

3.2 National Economy

The following data from Statistics Canada indicates an increase in the Composite leading indicator (CLI) for Canada. The composite leading indicator (CLI) is designed to provide early signals of turning points (peaks and troughs) between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity. The measure demonstrates Canada’s strong economic performance in the last six months of 2005.

Leading indicators July August September October November December Last month 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 of data available % change Composite leading indicator (CLI) (1992=100) 205.7 206.6 207.6 208.5 209.1 210.1 0.5 http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/060117/d060117b.htm - accessed, Jan. 30, 2006

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3.3 National Labour Market

The ongoing change in the demographic characteristics of the Canadian population will bring important challenges. In particular, population aging will have far ranging consequences for Canadian society. The Canadian workforce is expected to further diversify as the result of immigration trends. Large cohorts of young Aboriginal peoples will be entering the workforce. There will be increased labour force participation rates by women. Skill shortages in many industries and occupations have been forecast for several years, and we see significant evidence of these shortages in this region.

Chart 1.0 Annual Labour Force Growth Rate in Canada, 1955 to 2025

4.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%

9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 ------5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2

Source: Statistics Canada and HRDC, Adult Education & Training Survey

3.4 National Trends

A number of trends have shaped our national economy. These trends suggest that all labour force growth will result from immigration by 2011, as immigration currently represents 70 per cent of our labour force growth. Women constitute the second most important contributor to labour force growth. The labour market participation rate of Aboriginal peoples (i.e. the percentage working or looking for work) increased from 84 per cent in 1991 to 92 per cent in 2001. Young Aboriginal people are rapidly flowing into the labour force. Early retirement is Designing Our Future Finalscan.feb8 Feb. 8, 2006 Environmental Scan Page 12 becoming more common with the percentage of persons retiring before 60 years of age jumping from 29 per cent in 1990 to 43 per cent in 2000. The labour market participation rate of youth has increased from less than 50 per cent in 1996 to just below 55 per cent in 2004. Young workers (Generation X and Y) tend to show less patience for 'climbing the corporate ladder,' have higher salary expectations, are more inclined to look for better benefits and pension plans when comparing potential employers, and do not expect to stay in their current jobs in the long term. The number of self-employed workers in Canada doubled between 1976 and 2002. About one-third of these workers are professional, scientific, or technical. Temporary and part-time employment represents an important feature of today's employment landscape.

(Human Resources Planning, Accountability, and Diversity Branch, March 2005)

2.5. Provincial Economy BMO Financial Group predicts BC’s economy will continue to be a top national performer for the rest of the decade. With real GDP growth of 4.0 per cent in 2006, 3.5 per cent in 2007, and 3.2 per cent in 2008-10, BC’s above-average growth will be driven by continued strong investment in residential and non- residential construction.

(BMO Financial Group, Provincial Outlook, December 2005)

BC’s population is forecast to grow by 1 per cent, which means the population growth will not keep pace with job growth. This year, BC is showing the largest increase in non-residential construction in Canada and this trend is expected to continue at least until the 2010 Olympics.

As a result of improving economic conditions, both labour force and employment levels are increasing, which has led to lower provincial unemployment rates. As some sectors of the economy are operating at historically high levels, labour market pressures are being felt in some industries, occupations and particular regions of the province. For example, skills pressures or shortages are being experienced in certain high-skilled fields, including the health care professions, particularly in rural and northern communities. In addition, skills pressures exist in some construction trades, particularly in urban areas (2005/06 – 2007/08 BC Ministry of Advanced Education Service Plan Update, September 2005).

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3.5 Regional Economy

Our college region, based on 2004 data, has a population of 385,044 and represents 8.7% of BC’s population. Our demographic profile is outlined as follows: (see attached College Region Profile)

Age Total Percentage 0 - 17 years 70,813 19.4% 18 - 24 years 35,987 9.9% 25 - 64 years 187,510 51.4% 65+ years 70,734 19.3%

Total 365,044 100.0%

(10.4% of families have a lower income compared to the provincial average of 13.9%).

Our regional economy has experienced significant growth over the past years. For example, the Central Okanagan economy grew by 11.1 per cent in 2004. Population growth continues to increase in all parts of the region, with an increasing population of 50 plus citizens. The participation rate in the economy (portion of the population in the workforce) has grown to its highest point since 1994, reaching 64.7 per cent. We are also experiencing labour force growth; from 2003 to 2004 the labour force grew by 5.6 per cent.

The following data from the Central Okanagan Regional District provides information that is also consistent in other areas: Between 2003 and 2004, the number of people employed in goods producing services grew by 11.5 per cent, while the service sector grew by 2.5 per cent. Manufacturing employment, which declined by 3.2 per cent in 2001, has increased by almost 9 per cent since then. In the past year there has been a 13.1 per cent decrease in Employment Insurance claims. Business incorporations have increased by 32 per cent since 2002. 88.2 per cent of all Central Okanagan firms have less than 20 employees. From 2003 to 2004, year to year building permits increased in the Central Okanagan by 26 per cent. Data from 2001 to 2004 illustrates a 35 per cent increase in the median housing price and housing starts have increased by 100 per cent. Retail sales in the Central Okanagan are predicted to hit over $2 billion in 2005, a 3.4 per cent increase over 2004.

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Tourism revenues grew by 5.2 per cent in the past year. In November 2005, the Kelowna International Airport reached 1 million passengers. 4 Regional Labour Market

4.1 Regional profiles

OC services the wide and economically diverse geographic area of Southern Interior BC from Revelstoke to Osoyoos to Princeton. Campuses are located in Salmon Arm, Vernon, Kelowna and Penticton and Centres are located in Oliver, Summerland, Armstrong and Revelstoke.

The Central Okanagan (from Lake Country to Peachland) is the most diverse in the region with manufacturing, agriculture, tourism, retail/tourism and construction sectors all making significant contributions to the local economy. The highest number of workers is employed in the retail/tourism sector, followed by manufacturing and health & social services. The largest growth in the region is in the information, culture & recreation sector, which grew by 38 per cent last year, followed closely by the construction sector which grew by 37 per cent. Scientific & technical jobs, as well as those in primary industries (such as forestry, fishing, mining, oil & gas) experienced the greatest decline in number of workers.

In the Okanagan-Similkameen region (from Summerland to Osoyoos), retail/ tourism is also the largest employment sector, followed by healthcare. The agriculture sector is the third largest, making up nearly 11 per cent of the total workforce. Value-added food production, wine production and value added forestry employ the largest number of people in this sector. Manufacturing is also a player in this region’s economy, employing nearly 10 per cent of the total workforce.

The North Okanagan region (which encompasses Vernon, Enderby and Coldstream, Lumby, and Armstrong) has traditionally been dependent on forestry and agriculture for growth. In the past decade there has been considerable growth in the manufacturing and service sectors. Although there are over 200 manufacturing companies in the region, most are small, employing less than 20 people, so manufacturing accounts for 2 per cent of the employment sector. The construction sector accounts for nearly 20 per cent of the work force. The tourism sector is currently on the rise and forestry continues to play an important role in the local economy.

The Columbia-Shuswap region (from Salmon Arm to Golden) is similar to the other regions in that nearly 15 per cent of the population is employed in the retail/tourism sector. In Revelstoke, the transportation/storage industry is a close second, employing nearly 14 per cent of the population. In Salmon Arm, nearly

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12 per cent are employed in manufacturing and 11 per cent in construction. Forecasts suggest that tourism has the most significant potential for growth in this region. Forestry (logging and wood manufacturing) will continue to play a major role in this region’s economy, employing nearly 10 per cent of the workforce.

4.2 Changes in the Regional Labour Market

Although the local economies in the Southern Interior are diverse, the region as a whole has experienced significant labour market changes. The entire region has experienced a larger labour force (number of workers) coupled with jobs creation that has exceeded the supply of workers. Over the past 10 years, the unemployment rate in the Southern Interior has been hovering between 9 and 10 per cent, higher than the BC average of 8 per cent. In the most recent report released by Statistics Canada, the unemployment rate for this region is just over 4.2 per cent, the lowest unemployment rate since 1995. The BC unemployment rate of 5.1 per cent in October (2005) is the lowest monthly rate for the province in 30 years (http://www2.news.gov.bc.ca/news_releases_2005- 2009/2005FIN0021-001010.htm). Most of the job growth has been in full-time employment, suggesting better conditions for workers. Employment Insurance claims are down 10 per cent compared to this time last year. Lower unemployment rates and a larger pool of jobs to choose from are very good news for local workers, who have had to contend with part-time jobs and seasonal unemployment. However, for many employers, this means increased difficulty filling key positions and retaining qualified staff. This local economic boom and resulting skills shortage is supported by several contributing factors in the wider economy. 5 Demographics

5.1 Introduction

The demographics of our region provide opportunities to diversify our marketing and recruiting strategies. Since our student population is not only comprised of Grade 12 graduates, we can expand our marketing and recruiting activities to many other populations. With the aging of our population, marketing by age group, ethnicity, special interest and geography are all opportunities. For four regions, we can develop marketing nationally, provincially, College area-wide, and region specific. Within our College area and regions we can develop specific marketing campaigns designed to fit the demographics and community, student and employer needs of the area or region.

We also have the opportunity to maintain and enhance our partnerships with the K - 12 sector. Enrolments in K - 12 are declining, and forecasts for the next 12 years indicate significant declines in students graduating from Grade 12. Our marketing and recruiting strategies must anticipate and reflect these declining enrolments. We have a role to play in increasing the percentage of students who Designing Our Future Finalscan.feb8 Feb. 8, 2006 Environmental Scan Page 16 transition from Grade 12 to post-secondary, particularly to OC. By focussing on student success and supports, we can make OC an attractive alternative for any student enrolling in college.

Transition Rates

“Growth in the 25 to 29 year age group, as well as more emphasis on life-long learning among the working age population, will increase demand for more choice and flexibility in the range of education and industry training options within the context of public sector fiscal constraints. The increasing number of people migrating to BC includes a significant proportion of new immigrants who possess at least a baccalaureate level of education. These also include many whose first language is not English. This trend toward an increasingly diversified population will likely increase demand for English as a Second Language programs”.

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(2005/06 – 2007/08 BC Ministry of Advanced Education Service Plan Update, September 2005).

Many professionals are moving to the Okanagan and pose opportunities for OC in terms of faculty recruitment. We live in an attractive and appealing environment that encourages many highly skilled professionals to relocate to our region.

5.2 Average Family Income

Based on 2000 average family income statistics from BC Stats’, the average family income in the College region is $56,275 which is $8,546 less than the provincial average of $64,821. This data suggests that we may experience more demand for financial aid.

5.3 Secondary and Post-Secondary Completion

A major indicator of the level of education in a region is the percentage of 25-54 year olds without a high school or post-secondary education. In the OC Region, using 2001 statistics, 19.5 per cent of the population did not graduate from high school. This percentage is above the average for BC (17.2 per cent). Furthermore, 45.6 per cent of the population did not complete post-secondary education, compared to the provincial average of 42.3 per cent. In addition, from 2002-2004, 26.1 per cent of 18 year olds did not graduate compared to the provincial average of 24.9 per cent.

5.4 Okanagan College Population Distribution

The chart below highlights the total population distribution for each of the Regional Districts served by OC as determined by BC Stats and Statistics Canada. In 2004, the population percentage increases ranged from 1.1 per cent in the Okanagan Similkameen, 1.3 per cent in the Central and North Okanagan and 2.1 per cent in the Columbia Shuswap. All the increases were equal to or greater than the BC average of 1.1 per cent.

Table 2.0 Central Okanagan Population Distribution % Year Central Okanagan Change BC % Change 2000 152,060 4,039,198 2001 154,193 1.4 4,078,447 1

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2002 156,871 1.7 4,115,413 0.9 2003 160,491 2.3 4,152,289 0.9 2004 162,555 1.3 4,196,383 1.1

Table 2.1 North Okanagan Population Distribution % Year North Okanagan Change BC % Change 2000 76,056 4,039,198 2001 76,426 0.5 4,078,447 1 2002 77,189 1 4,115,413 0.9 2003 77,854 0.9 4,152,289 0.9 2004 78,875 1.3 4,196,383 1.1

Table 2.2 Okanagan Similkameen Population Distribution Okanagan % Year Similkameen Change BC % Change 2000 79,723 4,039,198 2001 79,985 0.3 4,078,447 1 2002 80,698 0.9 4,115,413 0.9 2003 81,044 0.4 4,152,289 0.9 2004 81,967 1.1 4,196,383 1.1

Table 2.3 Columbia Shuswap Population Distribution % Year Columbia-Shuswap Change BC % Change 2000 50,333 4,039,198 2001 50,321 0 4,078,447 1 2002 50,845 1.0 4,115,413 0.9 2003 51,306 0.9 4,152,289 0.9 2004 52,367 2.1 4,196,383 1.1 Source: BC Stats

5.5 Age and Gender Distribution

The following tables show the age and gender distribution of populations in each Regional District served by OC. All areas show a higher than provincial average percentage of the population aged 65 and over. The Okanagan-Similkameen has an over 65 population that is 11.9% higher than the provincial average. With the exception of the Central Okanagan all other areas have a higher-than-provincial average of the population aged 45 and over.

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2001 Age and Gender Distribution for the OC Region

Table 3.0 Central Okanagan % Distribution Male Female Central Okanagan BC All Ages 71, 355 76,380 100 100 0-14 13,255 12640 17.5 18.1 15-24 9,145 8,880 12.2 13.2 25-44 18,895 20,480 26.7 30.1 45-64 17,850 20,480 25.1 25.1 65> 12,201 15,085 18.5 13.6

Table 3.1 North Okanagan % Distribution North Male Female Okanagan BC All Ages 35,445 37,780 100 100 0-14 6,730 6,590 18.2 18.1 15-24 4,670 4,495 12.5 13.2 25-44 8,810 9,675 25.2 30.1 45-64 9,415 10,040 26.6 25.1 65> 5,825 6,990 17.5 13.6

Table 3.2 Okanagan Similkameen % Distribution Okanagan Male Female Similkameen BC All Ages 36,780 39,850 100 100 0-14 6,105 5,945 15.7 18.1 15-24 3,990 3,815 10.2 13.2 25-44 7,845 8,850 21.8 30.1 45-64 9,780 10,810 26.9 25.1 65> 9,065 10,440 25.5 13.6

Table 3.3 Columbia Shuswap % Distribution Male Female Columbia Shuswap BC All Ages 25,255 25,066 100 100 0-14 4,743 4,335 18.0 18.1

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15-24 3,615 3,302 13.7 13.2 25-44 6,427 6,678 26.0 30.1 45-64 6,584 6,518 26.0 25.1 65> 3,886 4,233 16.1 13.6 Source: Statistics Canada

5.6 Population Growth

Changes in total population growth for the College region over the past 10 years show a gradual increase in the regional population (Table 4.0). The high population growth rates in 1995 have declined in the past 10 years, but we are still experiencing significant growth. For example, in the Central Okanagan the population grew by 3.1 per cent in 1995 and 1.7 per cent in 2005. As shown below, the provincial percent change increased in each time frame at a rate that is slower than the College region. The College population growth rate is projected to be 1.6-1.8 per cent per year over the next five years from 2006- 2011, and gradually declining by 1.2 per cent by 2031.

Table 4.0 Annual Average Population Percent Change Okanagan Okanagan B.C. BC Last year 1.3 1.1 Last 5 years 1.1 0.9 Last 10 years 1.5 1.4 Source: BC Stats

5.7 Age Distribution

The population of the OC Region is gradually aging. As indicated in the Table below, the proportion of the population 65 years of age and over has steadily increased. BC Stats’ has projected that by 2014, the percentage of the population that is over 65 will be 20.4 in the Okanagan compared to the provincial average of 16.2 per cent.

Table 5.0 Age Distribution – Okanagan and BC Population 2004- 2004- 2004- 2014- 2014- Okanagan % Okanagan % BC % %BC Okanagan 0-17 70, 813 19.4 20.5 17.4 17.7 18-24 35,987 9.9 9.8 8.2 8.9 25-64 187,510 51.4 55.9 54.0 57.3 65+ 70,734 19.4 13.7 20.4 16.2 Total 365,044 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: BC Stats Designing Our Future Finalscan.feb8 Feb. 8, 2006 Environmental Scan Page 21

5.8 Visible Minority and Aboriginal Populations

According to the 2001 Census, 3.9 per cent of the Okanagan Region’s residents were identified as visible minorities, compared with a provincial average of 21.6 per cent. The table below indicates that there are a total of 11,895 Aboriginal people, accounting for 3.6 per cent of the total population compared to 4.4 per cent for BC overall. However, these figures only reflect Aboriginals who specifically identified themselves as such in the 2001 Census.

This data, combined with the larger proportion of aboriginal people in the 18 – 29 age group, suggests that we have a substantial opportunity to partner with Aboriginal groups and bands to recruit students from aboriginal populations on and off reserves. Stats Canada data shows absolute numbers of self-identified aboriginal people in our region as follows:

Table 6.0 Age Group Self-identified 18 – 24 1,165 25 – 34 1,615 18 – 34 2, 780

While our aboriginal and visible minority populations are much lower than the BC average, we also have the opportunity to recruit students from these populations from across the province.

Table 7.0 Ethnic Population Distribution Okanagan and BC 2001 Okanagan % Okanagan % BC Total visible minority 12,840 3.9 21.6 Single Origins 12,630 3.8 21.2 Chinese 2,150 0.6 9.4 South Asian 4,725 1.4 5.4 Filipino 640 0.2 1.7 Japanese 2.255 0.7 0.8 Other 2,860 0.9 3.9 Multiple Origins 230 0.1 0.4 Total Aboriginal People 11,895 3.6 4.4 Rest of Population 307,750 92.6 74.0 Total 332,485 100.0 100.0

Source: BC Stats 5.9 K – 12 Enrolment Data

There are seven different school districts that operate within the College Region. The school districts operate in the following jurisdictions:

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SD22 Vernon - which has 17 elementary schools and 5 high schools SD23 Central Okanagan - which has 31 elementary schools, 5 middle schools and 5 high schools SD52 Okanagan Similkameen - which has 6 elementary schools and 2 high schools SD67 Okanagan Skaha - which has 12 elementary schools, 3 middle schools and 3 high schools SD83 North Okanagan Shuswap - which has 20 elementary schools and 6 high schools SD58 Nicola – Similkameen - which has 7 elementary schools, 1 middle school and 2 high schools SD19 Revelstoke - which has 4 elementary schools and 1 high school

5.10 Enrolment by School District by Grade

In the OC Region the 2004/05 class in SD 23 was the largest graduating class in the district. In 2005/06, based on current grade 11 classes, School Districts 19, 23, 52, 67 will have graduating classes larger than this year, while School Districts 22 and 83 will have smaller graduating classes. The forecasts suggest a declining population of graduates after 2005/06.

OC will be following the forecasted enrolment data, and graduation statistics to ensure that marketing and recruitment strategies reflect changes in numbers of students graduating for Grade 12.

SD K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

19 73 88 85 102 106 104 91 98 101 113 123 142 109

22 573 610 577 596 697 682 688 754 789 812 836 966 1,041

23 1,353 1,308 1,458 1,504 1,591 1,646 1,664 1,743 1,786 1,898 2,030 2,252 2,202

52 171 184 193 202 217 204 205 227 242 263 261 368 304 67 407 381 449 477 498 515 565 597 641 669 647 848 579 83 414 450 466 514 545 616 603 615 707 697 696 746 974

58 151 180 173 203 197 202 222 244 249 283 243 361 374 Total

Table 8.0 Students by Grade by School District 2004/05 Source: BC Ministry of Education

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5.11 Social and Political

The recent election of a Conservative national government may make changes to education transfer payments to provinces. No decisions have yet been made about this issue. However, the college area now has several Conservative MP’s who need to be involved in and aware of OC and its activities.

Throughout our region and beyond, there is a strong interest in lifelong learning and communities of learning. Vancouver is undergoing a process of developing a learning community. In our consultations many community members and employers identified the need for lifelong learning for citizens of our communities and employees of their organizations. OC has a substantial opportunity to develop communities of learning, and support lifelong learning.

Our country, province and region are becoming increasing diverse. We recruit international students from many countries and attempt to recognize their diversity of culture and country of origin in our curriculum and student supports. Our regional students come from a range of ethnicities and cultures. We can build on the cultural and international knowledge of our students and faculty in building curriculum and campus activities that reflect their diversity.

There is a recent trend toward region-wide stewardship in the Okanagan, such as the Okanagan Basin Water Board, the establishment of the Okanagan Economic Development Council (OEDC) and the Okanagan Partnership. These new initiatives provide opportunities to consider the Okanagan as a whole.

The Ministry of Advanced Education Service Plan for 05/06 – 07/08 identifies five goals. This plan links to the current BC government goals. The Service Plan developed by OC will ensure that the College’s institutional goals directly relate to the Ministry goals outlined below.

1. Make BC the best educated, most literate jurisdiction on the continent. An excellent post-secondary system will provide students with high quality; life-long learning that is relevant to the needs of the province. Work in this area will include efforts to increase participation and success rates among Aboriginal students, and programming to improve adult literacy and support persons with special needs.

2. Lead the way in North America in healthy living and physical fitness. There is a strong relationship between a society’s level of education and both its health status and life expectancy rates.

3. Build the best system of support in Canada for persons with disabilities, special needs, children at risk, and seniors. The post-secondary system trains physicians, nurses and other professionals who provide health care and assistance to British Columbians throughout

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their lives. Student financial assistance programs provide incentives to graduates of these programs to practice in underserved regions of the province. The post-secondary system also provides programs to assist persons with special needs develop skills necessary to participate fully in the BC economy and society.

4. Lead the world in sustainable environmental management, with the best air and water quality, and the best fisheries management – bar none. An excellent environmental for research and innovation will enable researchers at post-secondary institutions to expand efforts to develop clean energy options and fuel cell technology, and improve environmental management and conservation practices.

5. Create more jobs per capita than anywhere else in Canada. Current and future investments in research and innovation will lead to new commercial applications, expanding job opportunities around the province. Also, the post-secondary system provides the knowledge, skills and training the entrepreneurs need to establish employers and create jobs.

(Ministry of Advance Education web-site)

6 Technology Increase in technology has been exponential in the past decade. The most recent Statistics Canada data confirms that from 1999 to 2003 Canadians

Designing Our Future Finalscan.feb8 Feb. 8, 2006 Environmental Scan Page 25 increased their use of the internet, at home, work and publicly from 42 per cent to 64 per cent.

In our community consultations in the fall of 2005, many participants discussed the opportunities for the college to provide educational access through the use of technologies such as the Internet, video-conferencing, web-casting, telephone conferencing. Each campus of OC has video conferencing capabilities, and the College will continue to investigate ways to incorporate this technology into the on-line and distance learning programs. Since OC opened its doors in September, 2005 it has installed wireless network access at each of its campuses for students and staff to utilize.

Our region encompasses many small and isolated rural communities for whom post-secondary educational access is difficult and costly. By using technology and developing partnerships with other distance education providers we can increase access for our students and communities.

Our students are also increasingly technology literate. The K – 12 system is providing laptop labs and increased connectivity in many schools. The Conference Board of Canada Employability Skills profile identifies a number of essential information management skills that includes: “locate, gather and organize information using appropriate technology and information systems”. Many employers’ value technology literate employees and we can support our students in providing them with training, education and support in the use of various technologies.

With the addition of the OC/OU programs at TRU we may also want to consider additional partnership with TRU and BC Campus to expand access to students.

Household Internet use, by location of access, (Canada)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

% of all households

Canada

Home 28.7 40.1 48.7 51.4 54.5

Work 21.9 27.5 32.6 34.2 36.5

School 14.9 19.2 22.2 22.9 23.1

Public library 4.5 6.5 7.9 8.2 8.7

Other locations 3.9 3.2 9.6 10.4 10.4

Any location 41.8 51.3 60.2 61.6 64.2

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table (for fee) 358-0002. Last modified: 2005-02-18.

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