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Emission Impossible: the Impact of the International Climate Regime “I have taken from day one of my office this climate change issue as the most important priority of myself as well as the United Nations as a whole” Ban Ki-Moon, Secretary-General of the United Nations speech in Kyoto on 29 June 2008 Emission Impossible? The Impact of the International Climate Regime on Sub-National Climate Change Policymaking Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Amanda M. Rosen, M.A. Graduate Program in Political Science The Ohio State University 2009 Dissertation Committee: Alexander Thompson, Advisor Randall Schweller Craig Volden Copyright by Amanda M. Rosen 2009 Abstract Why is there such widespread variation in governmental response to climate change? While some governments eagerly embrace the Kyoto Protocol and its mandatory greenhouse gas targets, others deny the very existence of the problem and either ignore it or take merely symbolic action. Yet some of the weakest climate policies can be found amongst Kyoto adopters while some of the strongest flourish in those countries, such as the United States that have been the most reluctant to join the international regime. This dissertation explains this phenomenon by examining the process policymakers undergo when confronted with the climate issue. I argue that despite the global collective nature of the climate crisis, policies are chosen based on local conditions and needs. Governments that are unburdened by top-down mandates on policy are free to experiment with policies that best fit local perceptions and agendas, while governments that must adhere to the Kyoto Protocol and other national commitments have a limited ability to create policies that will be accepted and implemented locally. Those that consider international agreements the best way to tackle climate change should be cautious, as this particular global problem may best be solved by policies generated at the local level. ii Dedication For my Family iii Acknowledgements I have frequently been told throughout my graduate career that ―the best dissertation is a done dissertation.‖ Whether this is true or not is not for me to judge, but I can say without exaggeration that my ability to offer up this work for evaluation of this claim is due to the support of many people. Their unwavering support over the last seven years has kept me going when I doubted that success was achievable. Thank you to my dissertation committee members Craig Volden and Randy Schweller for all of your advice, guidance, and good-humored responses to my frantic pleas for help. Particular thanks are due to my chair and advisor Alexander Thompson, for holding marathon sessions reviewing my latest drafts and always having time for me. He gave me the courage to take on a new project in an unfamiliar field, and I would never have finished without his assistance. Many others provided assistance on this project, acting as a sounding board for new ideas. Chief among them is Andrea Haupt, who never failed to have new and useful insights into my half-formed ideas. Also deserving of thanks are Diana Camella, Jan Box-Steffensmeier, Tony Mughan, Bear Braumoeller, Frank Wayman, Trevor Thrall, Elizabeth Smith, Srdjan Vucetic, Amanda Metskas, Danielle Langfield, Christina Xydias, iv Autumn Lockwood Payton, Deborah Friedes, and Anand Sokhey. Thank you also to participants at the 2008 ECPR Joint Sessions workshop in Rennes, ―The Politics of Climate Change,‖ the 2007 Midwest Political Science Association Conference in Chicago, Il, the 2008 Institute for Qualitative and Multi-Method Research in Tempe, Arizona, and the 2008 Research in International Politics workshop in Columbus, Ohio. Additional thanks are due to those who provided generous financial support for this research. Thank you to the Mershon Center for International Security Studies, the European Consortium for Political Research, and at Ohio State University, the Graduate School, the Council of Graduate Students, and the Environmental Policy Initiative. A special thanks to Serena Coppula and Michael Bierschenk for their work as research assistants on the project. Also thank you to the many people around the United States and Canada for giving me their time to answer my questions. I am very, very lucky to have such a strong support network of friends and family who, unlike me, never doubted my abilities. You know who you are, and I am eternally grateful. Finally, I would never have made it through this process with my sanity intact were it nor for the unending affection provided by my three sweet, wonderful cats. No mom could ask for more love than that provided by Xena, Pandora, and Draco Rosen. v Vita 1998 ..................................... East Brunswick High School 2001 ..................................... Certificate in Contemporary Europe, Syracuse University 2002 ..................................... B.A. in Political and Economic Studies of Europe, Duke University 2004 ..................................... Morris Abrams Award for International Affairs 2005 ..................................... M.A. in Political Science, Ohio State University 2007 ..................................... Ohio State University Graduate Associate Teaching Award 2007 ..................................... Alumni Grant for Graduate Research and Scholarship 2008 ..................................... Mershon Center for International Security Studies Graduate Student Grant 2005-present ......................... Lecturer and Graduate Teaching Coordinator, Ohio State University Fields of Study Major Field: Political Science Specialization: International Relations vi Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................... ii Dedication ................................................................................................................ iii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................. iv Vita .......................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables............................................................................................................ viii List of Figures .......................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1. Introduction: Emission Impossible? ......................................................... 1 Chapter 2. Sub-National Climate Change Policymaking Framework ......................... 33 Chapter 3. Sub-national Climate Policy in Canada .................................................... 80 Chapter 4. Sub-national Climate Policy in the United States ..................................... 122 Chapter 5. Sub-national Policies in Top-Down and Bottom-Up Systems ................... 189 Chapter 6. The Future of Sub-National Climate Change Policymaking .................... 226 Bibliography ............................................................................................................. 237 Appendix A: List of Abbreviations ........................................................................... 264 Appendix B: List of Interviews ................................................................................. 266 vii List of Tables Table 1.1. Annex B States and Targets ..................................................................... 6 Table 2.1. Policy Features of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Policymaking .................. 46 Table 3.1. Alberta Sources of Electricity, 2008 ........................................................ 103 Table 4.1. Climate Change Policies in the States ...................................................... 128 Table 4.2. State Greenhouse Gas Targets ................................................................. 142 Table 4.3. Sources of Employment in California, 2000 and 2005 ............................. 156 Table 4.4. Electricity Consumption in California, 2002 ............................................ 157 Table 4.5 Technical Potential for Clean Energy in California .................................... 158 Table 5.1. Provincial Level Emissions, 1990-2006 ................................................... 217 Table 5.2. State Level Emissions, 1990-2005 ........................................................... 218 Table 5.3. Sub-National Policy Adoption in the United States.................................. 222 viii List of Figures Figure 1.1. Sub-National Climate Change Policymaking Framework ....................... 20 Figure 2.1. Global Emissions of Greenhouse Gases ................................................. 37 Figure 2.2. Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends in Kyoto Countries............................ 39 Figure 2.3. Top-Down Policymaking ....................................................................... 42 Figure 2.4. Bottom-Up Policymaking ...................................................................... 45 Figure 2.5. Framework of Sub-National Climate Policymaking ............................... 61 Figure 2.6. A Typology of Climate Policy Choice .................................................... 66 Figure 3.1. Top-Down Policymaking in Canada ....................................................... 88 Figure 3.2. Sub-National Climate Policy Choice ...................................................... 90 Figure 4.1. Bottom-Up Policymaking in the United States ......................................
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