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Socioeconomic Assessment of the Cibola National Forest

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Socioeconomic Assessment of the Cibola National Forest Socioeconomic Assessment of the Cibola National Forest Submitted to the United States Forest Service Region 3 Office June 2007 University of New Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Research Acknowledgements A project of this scope can only be completed with the cooperation and collaboration of many individuals. BBER would like to thank the Region 3 Office of the USDA Forest Service for permitting BBER to take on this important project. We hope that the information and analysis provided in this report will contribute to the development of a forest plan that continues to benefit all residents of New Mexico. Specifically, we would like to thank Dr. Richard Periman for his patience, support and willingness to answer an immeasurable number of questions from our staff. We look forward to working with you as we continue to study the Region 3 forests. This work was supported by many people at the National Forest Service, including representatives of the regional office, the Supervisors office and District Offices. Thanks to Susan Bruin, Terry Yeh, Rob Arlow, Diane Etherton, Dennis Garcia, Alicia Pascasio, Gloria Delgado, Linda Marquette, Don Olson, Susan Winter, Susie Ness, Jeff Holden, Parks Hilliard and Stan Zarnoch for their invaluable assistance is helping us acquire (and interpret) data. We are also thankful for the assistance of Chad Nelson at NM Department of Fish and Game and Jane Prooty at the State of New Mexico Department of Taxation and Revenue. We are grateful for the demonstrated (but not surprising) super-hustle of many BBER staff: Bob Grassberger, Jeremy Cook, Molly Bleecker, Vicky Morris-Dueer, Guy Dameron, Rick Zimmerman, and Theresa Watson. Special thanks to Michael McDaniel for skillfully producing the maps and Nick Potter for lending us his masterful IMPLAN modeling skills. The folks at the BBER Data Bank, Kevin Kargacin, Karma Shore and Larry Compton, helped us navigate the murky waters of demographic data. BBER administrative staff ensured our contracts were handled and that we had updated maps, for which we are eternally grateful to Mike Byrnes, Betsy Eklund and Betty Lujan. The project enjoys the benefit of many talented students, including Sophia Hammett, Austin Duus, Lucinda Sydow, and Joshua Akers. Billy James Ulibarrí, Jeffrey Mitchell and Lee Reynis Socioeconomic Assessment of the Cibola National Forest i Credits Principal Author Billy James Ulibarrí, M.A. Principal Investigators Lee A. Reynis, Ph.D. and Jeffrey Mitchell, Ph.D. Chapter 2 (Demographic Patterns and Trends) Richard Zimmerman Chapter 7 (Economic Impacts) Nicholas Potter, MA. Database Development Vicky Morris-Dueer, M.A. Jeffrey Mitchell, Ph.D. Lee Reynis, Ph.D. Jeremy Cook, M.A. Bob Grassberger, Ph.D. Kevin Kargacin Karma Shore Larry Compton Cartography & GIS Michael McDaniel Editing Molly Bleecker, M.A. Teresa Watson, M.A. Joshua Akers Students Joshua Akers Austin Duus Erica Freese Sophie Hammett Ricardo Leo Lucinda Sydow Administration Michael Byrnes Betsy Eklund Betty Lujan Socioeconomic Assessment of the Cibola National Forest iii Table of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ i Credits...............................................................................................................................iii Table of Contents .............................................................................................................. v Table of Tables ................................................................................................................ vii Table of Figures................................................................................................................ ix Abbreviations ................................................................................................................... xi Executive Summary.......................................................................................................xiii 1 Introduction.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Statement of Purpose .............................................................................................. 1 1.2 Sources of Information and Analytical Methods .................................................... 1 1.3 Assessment Area and Level of Analysis ................................................................. 1 1.4 Organization of the Report.................................................................................... 13 2 Demographic Patterns and Trends ............................................................................ 15 2.1 Population Density and Growth............................................................................ 15 2.2 Racial/Ethnic Composition................................................................................... 17 2.3 Age of Population ................................................................................................. 19 2.4 Income and Poverty .............................................................................................. 22 2.5 Household Composition........................................................................................ 24 2.6 Educational Attainment......................................................................................... 25 2.7 Housing................................................................................................................. 27 2.8 Net Migration........................................................................................................ 30 2.9 Opportunities, Risks and Special Circumstances.................................................. 31 3 Access and Travel Patterns......................................................................................... 33 3.1 Location of Major Transportation Routes............................................................. 33 3.2 Airports ................................................................................................................. 37 3.3 Traffic Flows......................................................................................................... 37 3.4 Capital Outlays and Transportation Infrastructure Improvements...................... 38 3.5 Forest Roads and Trails......................................................................................... 39 3.6 Off-Highway Vehicles and the Travel Management Rule .................................... 41 3.7 Opportunities, Risks, and Special Circumstances................................................. 43 4 Land Cover, Ownership and Forest Health .............................................................. 45 Socioeconomic Assessment of the Cibola National Forest v 4.1 Land Cover on Cibola National Forest................................................................. 45 4.2 Land Conveyance and Exchanges ........................................................................ 54 4.3 Forest Health......................................................................................................... 55 4.4 Opportunities, Risks, and Special Circumstances................................................. 58 5 Forest Uses and Users.................................................................................................. 61 5.1 Recreation ............................................................................................................. 61 5.2 Hunting and Wildlife............................................................................................. 63 5.3 Grazing.................................................................................................................. 64 5.4 Timber................................................................................................................... 65 5.5 Special Use Permits .............................................................................................. 69 5.6 Illegal Uses............................................................................................................ 70 5.7 Opportunities, Risks, and Special Circumstances................................................. 71 6 Special Areas, Recreational Sites, Heritage and Cultural Resources ..................... 73 6.1 Special Areas, Wilderness and IRAs..................................................................... 73 6.2 Recreational Sites and Heritage Resources........................................................... 75 6.3 Cultural Resources................................................................................................ 77 6.4 Opportunities, Risks, and Special Circumstances................................................. 77 7 Economic Impacts........................................................................................................ 81 7.1 Cibola National Forest Region Economy ............................................................. 81 7.2 Methodology and Organization of the Cibola National Forest Impact................. 88 7.3 Direct Impact of the Cibola National Forest on Local Economies....................... 89 7.4 Economic Impacts and Multipliers ....................................................................... 90 7.5 Discussion of Results............................................................................................ 92 7.6 Opportunities, Risks, and Special Circumstances................................................. 93 8 Community Relationships..........................................................................................
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