TANZANIA Food Security Update August 2009

• Food security is favorable at the national level, Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, though concerns remain in localized areas where August 2009 2008/09 vuli and 2009 masika rains were below normal in the northeastern bimodal areas of the country.

• The poor performance of masika rains in bimodal areas has reduced crop production, causing net producers to turn to the market for food purchases. The number and extent of the food insecure population will be determined by the Rapid Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) to be conducted by the Food Security Information Team (FSIT) in September 2009.

• As a result of failed vuli and masika rains, pastures, browse, and water have dwindled, leading to abnormal migration and high levels of livestock mortality. Pastoralists should begin destocking to reduce pressure on land and the potential for resource‐based conflict, and to increase income for

food purchases. For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please

see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale3TU U3T • Prices for staple crops in all markets continue to be Source: FEWS NET higher than last year as well as above the five‐year averages. The high food prices are likely due to transportation costs and trader speculation during the hunger season (October‐January).

Seasonal calendar and critical events

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in Tel: 22 2928521 this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Washington DC 20006 [email protected] Agency for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected]

www.fews.net/tanzania

TANZANIA Food Security Update August 2009

Food security overview

National food security is generally favorable following the completion of msimu harvests in unimodal areas and masika (maize, rice, sorghum, potatoes, and pulses) harvests in parts of bimodal areas (, Kigoma, parts of Mwanza and Shinyanga regions). However, food security concerns remain for localized areas where 2008/09 vuli and 2009 masika rains were unsatisfactory for plant growth, including Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Tanga, Manyara, Mara, and Pwani, and parts of central areas () where msimu rains were inadequate. In these areas, crop production has been below food requirements. The number of food insecure households and interventions required will be established by the rapid vulnerability assessment (RVA) planned to be conducted by the multi‐agency Food Security Information Team (FSIT) in September 2009.

Despite increased food supplies in the markets, agriculture labor opportunities during the 2008/2009 season were limited in areas that received below‐normal rains. Poor performance of the masika season following the failed vuli season also depleted household food reserves in many crop producer households in bimodal areas. The failed seasons have also eroded household incomes that are normally sourced from the sale of agriculture products in rural areas. Increased demand from the market, compounded with increased transportation costs caused by high fuel prices, are likely to contribute to high food prices. The most food insecure period will be September through November in bimodal areas, as the vuli season is expected to start in October. If the vuli rains perform well, the green harvest will begin in December.

Poor masika rains (Figure 2) in combination with the several successive Figure 2: Rainfall Anomalies, March-June 30, seasons of below‐normal rainfall (2005‐2009) have resulted in poor 2009 pasture and browse and decreased livestock productivity in pastoral areas, especially in the districts of Ngorongoro, Monduli, and Longido (); Simanjiro, Kiteto (); Same and Moshi (Kilimanjaro) and Kilindi (Tanga region), thus triggering abnormal migration of pastoralists and their herds in search of pasture and water. Migration of livestock has most likely decreased household income from livestock products (milk, ghee, and skin) that provide income for food and non‐food household needs.

Abnormal migrations have resulted in long trekking distances, resulting in deteriorating body conditions and increased livestock mortality. The Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries reported that in Arusha region, 145 cattle in Arumeru and 2100 cattle in Longido districts died from lack of water, while 95 percent of livestock in Longido district have migrated in Source: FEWSNET-USGS search of pasture and water. In , livestock are grazed on crop residues that wilted from soil moisture stress in Same, Siha, and Mwanga districts. Pastoralists from have migrated into Tanzania in search of pasture and water for their livestock, which has further increased pressure on available pastures.

As the dry season continues, pastoralists are likely to continue migrating further in search of pasture and water, which causes conflicts between crop farmers and livestock keepers, and increases livestock disease outbreaks and deaths. According to the Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS), most pastoral areas of Tanzania continued to register a declining forage trend. The Northern zone, Kilimanjaro, Arusha, and Manyara regions continue to register very poor forage status, with scarce forage deepening to near‐drought conditions in most areas bordering Kenya, from to Ngorongoro District. The LEWS forage forecast for the next 60 days shows that the Northern zone of Tanzania, Arusha, Manyara and Kilimanjaro are expected to be the most affected by forage scarcity.

In areas where the rains were below normal or a total failure, net food producer households have begun to source food from markets, due to reduced crop production, thus increasing the number of people dependent on markets for food purchases. Increased market demand has encouraged traders to move food from the surplus‐producing areas to food deficit areas, including areas such as Tanga region that are typically surplus food producing areas, but had reduced production this year due to the poor rains.

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TANZANIA Food Security Update August 2009

Cereal demand from neighboring countries, especially Kenya, DRC, and Burundi, may influence the national food supply. This will be particularly true between October and January in bimodal areas, and October through April in unimodal areas, as food availability declines after the start of the hunger period and food prices peak throughout the Southern Africa region. Although the government has imposed a cereal export ban since May 2008, informal trade is likely to continue due to Tanzania’s porous borders, the country’s poor marketing system, and price differentials between Tanzania and its neighbors, which favor exporters. Close monitoring of informal trade flows is recommended given their likely impact on food prices and supply in Tanzania.

Seasonal progress

Currently, the growing cycles for annual crops have finished. The next main season will begin in October with the vuli rains in bimodal areas and in November with the msimu rains in unimodal areas. The normal dry conditions that dominated most areas in the country have continued to facilitate crop drying and storage and transportation of food commodities from remote areas to market centers.

In areas that received normal rains, perennial crops are progressing well throughout the country; bananas in bimodal areas are at peak harvest time, and cassava in both bimodal and unimodal areas is at different growth stages and progressing well. However, cassava mosaic disease (CMD) and cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) continue to threaten cassava‐ dependent livelihoods in Mwanza, Mara, and some parts of Kagera regions, and the disease is spreading. The Ministry of Agriculture Food Security and Cooperatives (MAFC) food preliminary forecast has indicated that, although the acreage of cassava in increased from 45,157 ha to 54,329 ha between 2008 and 2009, forecasted production will decrease from 90,314 MT in 2008 to 81,344 MT in 2009. Areas such as Rorya, Bunda, and Musoma rural districts (Mara region), where cassava is the main staple food, are expected to have early food insecurity because of the production decreases. Cassava production in all other regions outside of the Lake Victoria zone (Tanga, Kigoma, Mtwara, Morogoro, and Coast regions) has been average and is likely to reduce the impact of the poor performance of the masika rains in localized areas of the bimodal areas.

Banana production is threatened by Xanthomonas bacteria (BBW), which has been reported in Bukoba, Muleba, Karagwe, Ngara and Chato districts of Kagera. Bananas represent a major source of food and income for smallholder farmers in Kagera region.

Coffee harvesting and marketing have continued in the coffee/banana growing areas in Kagera, Kigoma, Mara, Kilimanjaro, Mbeya and Ruvuma regions. The current price offered for coffee farmers is lower than that of last year. In Kagera, farmers have been offered 400 TZS compared to 750 TZS last year. Reduced expected incomes from coffee sales will constrain farmers in their expected agricultural future investment, thus limiting agricultural labor opportunities for casual labor‐ dependant households. Cotton marketing has also begun in the cotton growing areas of Mwanza, Mara, Shinyanga, and Tabora regions. Cotton production is likely to be lower than last year and to reduce cotton farmers’ income and future investment in the next agricultural season.

In previous years, there has been a tendency for Newcastle disease in poultry to break out around September. The disease kills 90 percent of infected chickens, thus reducing an important source of household income in rural areas.

Markets and trade

During August, the normal seasonal dry conditions that dominated a large part of the country have facilitated harvesting, drying, storage, transportation of major crops and their distribution to market centres. All markets across the country continue to receive cereals and non cereal supplies from the surplus areas. Improved road conditions in the central regions have enabled food to flow from surplus to deficit production areas. However, prices continue registering higher than the five‐year average and last year at the same time for all main crops in all markets.

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TANZANIA Food Security Update August 2009

The above‐normal food prices across the country are likely due to high transportation costs and trader speculation during the hunger season, following the failed 2008/09 vuli season and the failed 2009 masika season in the northern, northeastern, and coastal areas.

The price of maize, the main staple for most households, has shown a normal trend pattern this season, except for prices in the Arusha market, which has shown an increasing trend (prices normally decrease between the months of June and July). The increase of prices in surplus producing areas (represented by Songea market) indicated the active marketing of food crops. The abnormal trend of Arusha maize prices is likely due to the failed masika season.

During the month of July, prices of beans (the main source of protein) have shown a mixed trend in the monitored markets. While bean prices in and Mbeya have increased, in Kigoma and Songea they have dropped to the same level as last year. Bean price increases in Dar es Salaam are most likely due to the effect of transportation costs from source areas (Mbeya, Iringa, and Ruvuma). In Mbeya, prices have shown an increasing trend, indicating active buying of the crop from the second bean crop harvest.

The Government allocated Tsh. 666.9 billion to the agricultural sector in the 2009/10 budget, reflecting an increase of 30 Percent compared to Tsh.513 billion in the last budget. The increase in budget allocation is meant to improve infrastructure for irrigation and rural access roads; distribution of subsidized fertilizers mainly targeting the major production regions; and availability of quality seeds and other agricultural inputs. All of these are incentives are aimed towards increased production and improved market access.

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ANNEX: Tanzania Monthly Price Bulletin August 2009

Maize is the main staple crop in Tanzania. Rice and beans are also very important, the latter constituting the main source of protein for most low‐ and middle‐income households. Dar es Salaam is the main consumer market in the country. Arusha is another important market and is linked with Kenya in the north. Dodoma represents the central region of the country, a semi‐arid, deficit area. Kigoma is an important cross‐border market with connections to both the Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi. Mtwara sits in a south coastal deficit area while Songea and Mbeya represent the southern highlands. Tanga is also a coastal town in the north, with trade connections with Kenya.

Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other network and private sector partners.

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ANNEX: Tanzania Monthly Price Bulletin August 2009

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ANNEX: Tanzania Monthly Price Bulletin August 2009

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