Cyclone FANI Situation Updates- High to Medium Risks for Bangladesh Needs Assessment Working Group Updates Version: 04, Date: 4 May 2019 (2.00 BST)

Cyclonic storm ‘FANI’ over West central and adjoining areas of Bay of Bengal Parts of the Khulna and adjoining South-western part of Bangladesh started to inundated by evening of 03 May 2019 High likelihood of PERIPHERAL EFFECT OF THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” BY THE MORNING to evening of OF 04 MAY 2019. Updates on Location and direction: The severe cyclonic storm “Fani” (pronunciation: Foni) over What you need to know? coastal Odisha and adjoining northwest bay

moved north-northeastwards, weakened further Report (From – To) 27 Apr - 03 May

and now lies over coastal Odisha, Gangetic West About 10 Million Bengal and adjoining area (near lat. 21.5°n, long. Exposed population (Bangladesh) 86.5°e) at 09 pm today (03 may 2019). It is likely

to move in a north-north-easterly direction further 1.3 m (03 May 04:00 UTC) and reach Khulna and adjoining southwestern Maximum storm surge (India) part of Bangladesh during midnight tonight to morning of 04 may 2019. Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

Landfall: Cyclone FANI has made landfall on Odisha The peripheral effect of cyclonic storm “Fani” coast between Gopalpur and Chandbali, south of Puri has been continuing over Bangladesh and its at 10.00 am to 10.15 on 3rd May with maximum adjoining coastal areas from morning today (03 sustained wind speed of 170-180 kmph gusting to 200 may 2019). Under its influence sky remains kmph. Now its sweeping over West Bengal as of 2.oo overcast and rainfall is occurring at many places BST with 1100-110 kmph wind speed. over the country. Low lying areas of the coastal belt MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE STORM CENTRE IS ABOUT 100 KPH RISING TO 120 KPH IN started to inundated by tidal surge. GUSTS/ SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN HIGH. MARITIME PORTS The track of the cyclone may cross OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN (R) SEVEN. Impact on Bangladesh tomorrow morning. Seven people died due to lighting Bangladesh COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, strike in two different districts and BARISHAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL one people died due to branch fall COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER SEVEN (R) SEVEN. by gusty wind MARITIME PORT OF CHATTOGRAM HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SIX (R) SIX. Low lying areas of Chattogram, COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS Noakhali, Laxmipur, Feni, Chandpur, Tidal Surge AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER Borguna, Patuakhali, Barishal, Bhola, SIX (R) SIX. Risk in Bangladesh Pirozpur, Jhalokathi, Bagerhat, Khulna, MARITIME PORT OF COX’S BAZAR HAS BEEN ADVISED TO Satkhira and their offshore islands are KEEP HOISTED LOCAL WARNING SIGNAL NUBMER FOUR prone to 2-4 Feet Tidal surge. (BMD) (R) FOUR.

Source: GADCS Impact Areas of Bangladesh:  The current projection of The projected track anticipated that on 4th May early moring to noon through the Meherpur/Rajshahi/District districts with the 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph.(IMD and GDACS)  A total 52 districts are projected as risks prone due to cyclonic wind or tidal surge.  There is likelihood of heavy damages of crops due to heavy rainfall.

Precautionary Measure:  BDRCS has open Control room at Dhaka Level  NAWG has called for the JNA preparation meeting and mobile field team for early warning tomorrow at DDM. dissemination and evacuation.  NAWG is closely observing the cyclone track and  In HCTT meeting, 72 hours Needs Assessment is situation. Will update every 12 hours. decided. NAWG will conduct the assessment with  NAWG already updated and prepared the secondary the technical support from WFP. pre-crisis data set for the anticipated risks areas of  MoDMR has coordinated the relocation of 1.2 Cyclone FANI. million people in shelter in cyclone risk prone  All cluster and working group coordinator/focal are district. requested to stay alert and take necessary actions to  MoDMR allocated 1 Crore BDT for 20 most collect their sector specific secondary data. NAWG will seek support if we decided for JNA 1st Phase/72 cyclone risk prone districts. hours heeds Assessment.  MoDMR has started to distribute dry food in the cyclone shelter.

Impact Anticipation: With overlay analysis of GIS track areas of proximity information from three different sources (IMD, GDACS, and Cyclocane) are analyzed and overplayed in GIS software for anticipation of impacts.

Snapshots of Risks Risks Type Number of district Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) 30 Very High Risk(eye will sweep over) 7 Severe Risk(Tidal Surge+High Wind) 14

Anticipation of Tidal Surge Prone Areas Table 1: Tidal Surge Inundation and High wind risk Prone Districts (Forecasted By BMD) Division_N District_N Tot PopN Inundation Risks Remarks BARISAL BARISAL 2308540 2-3Feet Tidal Surge Severe Risk(Tidal Low Lying and with 90-120 kmp Surge+High Wind) Char(Island) Areas Gusty Wind BARISAL PIROJPUR 1104760 2-3Feet Tidal Surge Severe Risk(Tidal Low Lying and with 90-120 kmp Surge+High Wind) Char(Island) Areas Gusty Wind BARISAL BARGUNA 890340 2-3Feet Tidal Surge Severe Risk(Tidal Low Lying and with 90-120 kmp Surge+High Wind) Char(Island) Areas Gusty Wind BARISAL BHOLA 1778060 2-3Feet Tidal Surge Severe Risk(Tidal Low Lying and with 90-120 kmp Surge+High Wind) Char(Island) Areas Gusty Wind BARISAL JHALOKATI 671680 2-3Feet Tidal Surge Severe Risk(Tidal Low Lying and with 90-120 kmp Surge+High Wind) Char(Island) Areas Gusty Wind BARISAL PATUAKHALI 1530060 2-3Feet Tidal Surge Severe Risk(Tidal Low Lying and with 90-120 kmp Surge+High Wind) Char(Island) Areas Gusty Wind CHITTAGONG CHANDPUR 2406900 2-3Feet Tidal Surge Severe Risk(Tidal Low Lying and with 90-120 kmp Surge+High Wind) Char(Island) Areas Gusty Wind CHITTAGONG CHITTAGONG 7633760 2-3Feet Tidal Surge Severe Risk(Tidal Low Lying and with 90-120 kmp Surge+High Wind) Char(Island) Areas Gusty Wind CHITTAGONG FENI 1441600 2-3Feet Tidal Surge Severe Risk(Tidal Low Lying and with 90-120 kmp Surge+High Wind) Char(Island) Areas Gusty Wind

Division_N District_N Tot PopN Inundation Risks Remarks CHITTAGONG LAKSHMIPUR 1726780 2-3Feet Tidal Surge Severe Risk(Tidal Low Lying and with 90-120 kmp Surge+High Wind) Char(Island) Areas Gusty Wind CHITTAGONG NOAKHALI 3109820 2-3Feet Tidal Surge Severe Risk(Tidal Low Lying and with 90-120 kmp Surge+High Wind) Char(Island) Areas Gusty Wind

Anticipation of Cyclonic Storm Prone Districts (from projection) (Subjected to the projected tracks and storm wind remain same on 4th May when enter Bangladesh) Population under risks of Division District 60km/h 90km/h 120km/h Total Remarks

Dhaka Dhaka 7,643,954 7,643,954 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Faridpur 1,884,726 1,884,726 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Gazipur 3,965,153 3,965,153 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Gopalganj 548,138 548,138 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Jamalpur 2,724,680 2,724,680 Very High Risk(eye will sweep over) Dhaka Kishoreganj 2,760,876 2,760,876 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Manikganj 1,662,561 1,662,561 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Munshiganj 532 532 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Mymensingh 5,993,627 5,993,627 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Narayanganj 160,707 160,707 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Narsingdi 649,408 649,408 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Netrakona 2,610,397 2,610,397 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Rajbari 1,228,712 1,228,712 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Dhaka Sherpur 1,572,700 1,572,700 Very High Risk(eye will sweep over) Dhaka Tangail 4,248,433 4,248,433 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Khulna Bagerhat 827,122 827,122 Severe Risk(Tidal Surge+High Wind) Khulna Chuadanga 1,311,449 1,311,449 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Khulna Jessore 3,186,379 3,186,379 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Khulna Jhenaidah 2,061,142 2,061,142 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Khulna Khulna 2,721,178 2,721,178 Severe Risk(Tidal Surge+High Wind) Khulna Kushtia 2,247,049 2,247,049 Very High Risk(eye will sweep over) Khulna Magura 1,072,948 1,072,948 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Khulna Meherpur 704,485 42,802 2,461 749,748 Very High Risk(eye will sweep over) Khulna Narail 828,713 828,713 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Khulna Satkhira 2,253,576 2,253,576 Severe Risk(Tidal Surge+High Wind) Rajshahi Bogra 3,990,857 3,990,857 Very High Risk(eye will sweep over)

Population under risks of Division District 60km/h 90km/h 120km/h Total Remarks

Rajshahi Joypurhat 1,083,993 1,083,993 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Rajshahi Naogaon 3,069,352 3,069,352 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Rajshahi Natore 1,976,899 1,976,899 Very High Risk(eye will sweep over) Rajshahi Nawabganj 1,951,378 1,951,378 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Rajshahi Pabna 2,987,082 2,987,082 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Rajshahi Rajshahi 3,055,340 3,055,340 Very High Risk(eye will sweep over) Rajshahi Sirajganj 3,600,863 3,600,863 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Rangpur Dinajpur 1,123,531 1,123,531 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Rangpur Gaibandha 2,759,794 2,759,794 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Rangpur Kurigram 1,893,357 1,893,357 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Rangpur Lalmonirhat 130,546 130,546 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Rangpur Rangpur 2,408,813 2,408,813 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Sylhet Habiganj 269,453 269,453 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Sylhet Sunamganj 2,807,740 2,807,740 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Sylhet Sylhet 948,357 948,357 Medium to High Risk (Storm Wind may Prevail) Total 88,926,000 42,802 2,461 88,971,263 The High resolution maps of this anticipated storm impact areas can be downloaded from here.

Notes: : Cyclone FANI has landfall on Odisha Coast between Gopalpur and

Chandbali, south of Puri between 10.00 AM to 10.15AM. The land fall location is

more than 500 km away as the direction showing the entering path to Bangladesh

(Meherpur/Kushtia/Rajshahi Districts). There is high chances of weaken of the

cyclonic storm after landfall and by the time there may be medium to very limited

impact of storm wind in Bangladesh. NAWG is closely observing the situation and if

the situation change, will disseminate special updates

Table: Projected Tidal Inundation location and anticipated storm Surge Height. The location specific maps can be visualized from here.

Date and time Name Country Storm surge height (m) (UTC) 5/4/2019 2:00 Sarankhola Forest Bangladesh 0.7 Office 5/4/2019 5:00 Boro Char Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Idris Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Aithadi Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Bara Char Kalia Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Adam Manirabad Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Tarabania Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Mugadi Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Amanullapur Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Chandpur Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Nilkamal Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Fatehjangpur Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Haim Bangladesh 0.7 5/4/2019 5:00 Bausia Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Hijla Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 6:00 Andharmanik Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Harni Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Bansi Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 4:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 4:00 Aswadia Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 4:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 4:00 Lamchhi Prasad Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Bamnia Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 4:00 Tulatali Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 4:00 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 4:00 Banskhali Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Medua Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Kalupura Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 4:00 Miar Hat Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 4:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Bariakhali Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Munsi Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 6:00 Char Chanda Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Hazari Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Falcon Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 2:00 Dhalua Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Sandwip Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 4:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 4:00 Maitbhanga Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Dhalapara Bangladesh 0.6

Date and time Name Country Storm surge height (m) (UTC) 5/4/2019 6:00 Mehdigunj Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Madhyam Bangladesh 0.6 Lamchhidhali 5/4/2019 5:00 Hazipur Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 7:00 Jagannathpur Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Algi Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 2:00 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Munshir Hat Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Char Fakura Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Char Chandia Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Akbar Hat Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Rabipur Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Gazi Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Ramiz Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 6:00 Mahishkhola Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Hatia Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 7:00 Mahisha Gagaria Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 7:00 Char Nandanpur Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 7:00 Pangasia Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 6:00 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 6:00 Majanadi Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Chandpur Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Dasher Hat Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Nalchira Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Jafarnagar Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 7:00 Bisarikati Charkhanda Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 7:00 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 6:00 Chandpur Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 7:00 Char Kali Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 6:00 Char Lawrence Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 7:00 Chiladi Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Kanchanpur Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Barabkunda Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Manpura Bangladesh 0.6 5/4/2019 3:00 Bansbaria Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 9:00 Adhara Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 3:00 Kumira Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 7:00 Bageswari Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 7:00 Chandkati Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 7:00 South Dighaldi Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 7:00 Sakusia Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 7:00 Baga Bangladesh 0.5

Date and time Name Country Storm surge height (m) (UTC) 5/4/2019 6:00 Char Kadira Bangladesh 0.5

5/4/2019 11:00 Anantasar Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 11:00 Baniagaon Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 11:00 Bhatkul Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 11:00 Banari Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 9:00 Hogla Char Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 11:00 Baghia Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 9:00 Atpara Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 11:00 Aldi Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 6:00 Char Bedama Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 11:00 Ahadi Bayatir Kandi Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 12:00 Naria Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 7:00 Bazemahal Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 7:00 Bara Pata Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 3:00 Sitalpur Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 3:00 Kamla Char Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 5:00 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 5:00 Maijchara Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 5:00 Sagaria Bangladesh 0.5

5/4/2019 5:00 Char Ishwar Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 3:00 Bhatiari Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 8:00 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 4:00 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 2:00 Chalitabunia Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 3:00 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh 0.5

5/4/2019 3:00 Londa Bangladesh 0.5 5/4/2019 1:00 Sibsa Point Bangladesh 0.5

Source and Disclaimer: 1. The track interpolated from projected forecast of IMD, GDACS and Cyclocane on 18.00 to 21.00 BST on 3rd May 2019. 2. Information from Different Sources (GDACS, IMD, and BMD) are compiled here. No information is generated nor authored by NAWG. 3. This report is only for internal use of Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh as preparatory activities not official information of GoB. The Next report will be published at tomorrow 12.00 PM

For any kind of information please contact: 1. Mrityunjoy Das Program Coordinator, Humanitarian and Resilience-CARE. E: [email protected],Ml: +8801711-156932 2. Md Jafar Iqbal, Coordinator-NAWG. M: +8801915177117, E: [email protected] 3. Apurba S Mahboob, TC_IM-NAWG, M: 01622837796, E: [email protected]