DAVID MCWHINNEY

Postal area: BT22

Response ID: BHLF-FFDS-VS6W-S

Composite comments regarding the proposals

Response to the 2018 Parliamentary Constituency Review in

19th October 2016

David McWhinney *****************, ******** ***********. BT22 ***

Even after a cursory glance at Northern Irish electoral map, the difficulties encountered by the Boundary Commission in drawing up seventeen new parliamentary constituencies are clearly evident. The tight restrictions on electorate size imposed by the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, together with the new larger and in places awkwardly shaped local government wards make the formation of cohesive constituency units more problematic.

The first and most important decision made by the commission, namely which region of Northern Ireland must suffer the loss of one constituency, is sensible. For some time our capital city has experienced a declining population producing significantly undersized electorates in each of the four constituencies. Even though previous reviews have expanded these constituencies well outside the limits of the city council, several, most notably Belfast West and East, currently remain at the smaller end of the range of electorate sizes in Northern Ireland. The reduction of four constituencies to three is therefore entirely reasonable and fair. The alternative, to attempt to maintain the four urban constituencies, would create seats that would be unrecognisable as 'Belfast' containing either rural wards or large parts of neighbouring cities and towns such as , or Newtownabbey. The follow on disruptive effects in constituencies in Counties Antrim and would also be severe on long established local ties. The three constituency proposal in Belfast is the only possible outcome given the electoral size constraints the commission must operate within.

However many of the specific proposals made by the commission outside Belfast warrant major changes. Two of the new proposed constituencies appear especially artificial. 'Upper Bann and Blackwater' curves around Lough Neagh from eastern Tyrone through north Armagh finishing in southern Antrim connecting towns such as Coalisland and with no natural ties. Equally 'West Antrim' binds Ballymena in the heart of rural County Antrim with a corner of the northern suburbia on the outskirts of Belfast.

Many of Northern Ireland's largest towns have been cut of from their traditional hinterlands, Coleraine, Ballymena, Antrim, Lisburn and Lurgan have been treated in this manner. Worse, several towns have been dismembered by a boundary cleaving intrinsic parts into another constituency. Dungannon (Mullaghmore), (Mahon and Bleary), Glengormley (Hightown and Collinbridge) and Lisburn (Blaris and ) have all suffered. The commission should limit these incongruities as best it can in it's revised proposals.

The proposed constituencies all have a variance of less than three percent from the Northern Ireland electoral average. While the commission is not under any obligation to do so, the determination to reduce excessive electoral size variation within Northern Ireland is admirable given that each Westminster constituency elects an equal number of assembly members. However I would suggest a little more leniency, the central principle of the 2011 Act limits variance to five percent from the UK electoral quota, a similar degree of deviation from the Northern Ireland electoral average would be a reasonable aim. The commission also states that the conditions for the application of Rule 7, permitting a lower electorate limit, have not been met. If the commission takes a more relaxed position on both these issues a better model for Northern Ireland's Parliamentary seats becomes possible respecting traditional local community ties and the approximate positions of the existing fourteen constituencies outside Belfast.

The following proposals demonstrate that such a redrawing of Northern Ireland's political boundaries is possible in an equitable way, despite the tight restrictions imposed on the commission.

Belfast

As previously stated a 3 seat city is the logical response to the reduction of constituencies within Northern Ireland.

The Boundary Commission states it's intention to honour as far as possible the new City Council boundary. However given the total electorate within the local government district is insufficient for the formation of three constituencies without the application of Rule 7 and that the natural frontier of the city of Belfast is more expansive than the rigid City Council line would suggest it is reasonable to propose the inclusion of several surrounding urban wards to form constituencies of the appropriate electoral size. Several minor ward changes can improve the cohesion and shape of the commission's proposed boundaries.

Belfast East

The commission uses the river Lagan as a natural dividing line across the city. This produces a peculiar salient projecting south west from the bulk of the constituency. The Belvoir ward has no obvious tie to East Belfast, it's inappropriate inclusion breaks it's traditional connections with either the south of the city or the Castlereagh area. It would be better to consider the arterial roads radiating out of Belfast city centre as natural units each with it's own local identification. The addition of the Central, Ormeau and Galwally wards preserves the integrity of the residential areas along the full length of the Ormeau and Roads from the Forestside Shopping Centre into the heart of the city when joined with the three eastern Belfast DEAs.

Lisnasharragh DEA Ormiston DEA Titanic DEA Ormeau and Central wards from Botanic DEA Galwally ward from Castlereagh South DEA

Total electorate 75225

Belfast North

The commission has proposed the addition of two Antrim and Newtownabbey Council wards to make up the required electoral numbers but one of these is ill considered. Collinbridge is naturally part of the Glengormley area, it's proposed inclusion in North Belfast creates a boundary that runs through residential streets and splits the integrity of this district. The electorate of Collinbridge would also be physically isolated from the rest of North Belfast by it's position on the northern slope of Cavehill. The northwestern boundary of Belfast could be readily defined by the line of hills extending from Divis and Blackmountain, across Cavehill to Carmoney Hill enclosing the city that stretches from their eastern slopes to . By adding the four wards to the immediate northeast of the M2 to the three northern Belfast DEAs not only meets the prescribed electoral numbers but also preserves this natural geographical limit of the city. Also note that these wards have been part of the North Belfast constituency since 1997. The entire constituency is directed northwards. As such, the name change to North West is not necessary.

Castle DEA Oldpark DEA Court DEA O'Neill, Rathcoole, Valley and Whitehouse wards from Macedon DEA

Total Electorate 71,963

Belfast South West

The remaining Belfast City Council wards meet the electoral quota, no further wards need be added. The commission included Beechmount in North West Belfast; I have placed it in the South West constituency due to its very close associations with the heart of west Belfast and to preserve the unity of the Black Mountain DEA.

Black Mountain DEA Collin DEA Balmoral DEA Blackstaff, Stranmillis and Windsor wards from Botanic DEA

Total Electorate 76,220

Southern Region

Four of the six proposed constituencies in Counties Down and Armagh require only minor changes at most, once the glaring anomaly of 'Upper Bann and Blackwater' has been rectified. This constituency combines areas without any known ties, forcing rural east Tyrone together with suburban Craigavon in an odd lop sided shape, slicing off parts of Portadown and Dungannon in the process. If the commission considers the Blackwater river as a natural geographical line of demarcation, the creation of constituencies which respect both local connections and the rough outline of the current boundaries becomes possible.

Upper Bann

The simple combination of the Portadown, Craigavon and Lurgan DEAs with four surrounding rural wards provides the necessary electoral numbers.

Portadown DEA Craigavon DEA Lurgan DEA Tandragee ward from Cusher DEA and wards from Lagan River DEA Gilford ward from DEA

Total Electorate 73,471

Newry and Armagh

The remaining wards when combined with the city of meets the electoral quota requirement with only minimal changes to the existing constituency boundary.

Newry DEA Slieve Gullion DEA Armagh DEA Hamiltonsbawn, Markethill, Richhill and Seagahan wards from Cusher DEA

Total Electorate 71,959

South Down

As proposed

Crotlieve DEA The Mournes DEA DEA DEA and wards from Banbridge DEA

Total Electorate 74,040

Lisburn and West Down

The commission's proposed 'West Down' constituency is an interesting and meritorious idea. Possible objections include the separation of both Lurgan and Lisburn from their immediate hinterland; towns which do not respect ancestral county boundaries. However once the mistakes of 'Upper Bann and Blackwater' have been rectified some changes are necessary to reach the electoral quota limit.

A new constituency loosely based on the present Lagan Valley seat could be created by aggregating the towns and villages along the A1 corridor, one of Northern Ireland's most important arterial roads. This constituency would begin in Banbridge extending northward through Dromore and ending with Lisburn city. Although this idea preserves the commercial and residential heart of Lisburn, it does necessiate a northern boundary which separates the city from the urban overspill of Belfast in the Derryaghy, Lambeg and Seymour Hill areas. These wards while, included in the Lisburn North DEA, do not constitute the central 'core' of Lisburn and so their inclusion in a different constituency should not be objectionable on serious consideration. With the inclusion of Banbridge spanning the river Bann, the name Lagan Valley would of course now be erroneous. The new name should reflect not only northwestern but also the significance of Lisburn City itself.

Lisburn South DEA Hilden and Wallace Park wards from Lisburn North DEA Downshire East DEA Downshire West DEA Dromore, Gransha and Quilly wards from Lagan River DEA Banbridge East, North, South and West wards from Banbridge DEA Beechill, West and wards from Castlereagh South DEA

Total Electorate 72,498

North Down

As proposed

Bangor East and DEA Bangor Central DEA Bangor West DEA Holywood and DEA Ballyhanwood, Carrowreagh, Dundonald, Enler and Graham's Bridge from Castlereagh East DEA

Total Electorate 74,317

East Down

As a result of alterations in neighbouring constituencies slight changes are required to the Commission's proposals for .

On first glance the division of Carryduff East and West appears inappropriate but on reflection it can be justified. Carryduff East is a partly rural ward with links to and Saintfield while the 'town' itself lacks an identifiable centre and is in reality more a collection of fairly recent housing estates on either side of the A24 with established links to Belfast, Lisburn and the mid Down area. Due to the shape of the two wards, retaining both Carryduff East and West in either the eastern or western Down constituency creates an obtrusive boundary.

A constituency name change is appropriate. With a South, North and now West Down constituency 'Strangford' seems somewhat out of place, why not also simply name the constituency according to it's geographical position.

Ards Peninsula DEA DEA DEA Rowallane DEA Cairnshill, Knockbracken and Carryduff East wards from Castlereagh South DEA Moneyreagh ward from Castlereagh East DEA

Total Electorate 74,925

Western Region

Two constituencies, Foyle and Fermanagh and South Tyrone, meet the electoral limits and can be left virtually unaltered with only fractional changes to reflect the new local government wards. The remainder of County Tyrone and southern County Londonderry are currently divided north to south into the undersized West Tyrone and Mid Ulster; with constituency enlargement an east to west line produces a better topographical alignment.

Foyle

As proposed

Ballyarnett DEA Foyleside DEA The Moor DEA Waterside DEA Eglinton, Enagh, Slievekirk and New Buildings wards from Faughan DEA

Total Electorate 71,398

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Dungannon DEA Clogher Valley DEA Erne East DEA Erne North DEA Erne West DEA Enniskillen DEA

Total Electorate 71,038

Mid Ulster

From 1983 to 1997 the constituency named Mid Ulster stretched across County Tyrone from Lough Neagh to the border. The formation of a rural constituency, with not dissimilar boundaries encompassing central Tyrone, allows the retention of this historic name.

Mid Tyrone DEA Omagh DEA West Tyrone DEA Cookstown DEA Torrent DEA Castlederg, Glenderg and Newtownstewart wards of Derg DEA

Total Electorate 73,109

Sperrin

The final western constituency spreads across the rural northwest. It's name reflects the most prominent geographical feature within it's borders - the Sperrin mountains.

Benbradagh DEA Carntogher DEA Moyola DEA Magherafelt DEA Sperrin DEA Finn and Sion Mills wards from Derg DEA Claudy ward from Faughan DEA

Total Electorate 73,893

Northern Region

The remaining four constituencies across County Antrim and northern Londonderry do not need radical change to meet the electoral quota limit. The transfer of several medium sized towns and urban districts between various seats accommodates the alterations already made elsewhere.

Coleraine and the Causeway Coast

If the current East Londonderry constituency is transposed some miles eastwards to include Ballymoney, a new seat can be created centred around the town of Coleraine and comprising the core of the new Causeway Coast local government district.

Ballymoney DEA Bann DEA Causeway DEA Coleraine DEA Limavady DEA

Total Electorate 71,986

North Antrim

After the loss of Ballymoney, the current North Antrim seat requires some movement eastwards. The inclusion of the Glens of Antrim and the town of Larne brings the constituency towards the electoral quota.

Glens DEA Ballymena DEA Bannside DEA Braid DEA Coast Road DEA Curran and Inver ward from Larne Lough DEA

Total Electorate 72,764

East Antrim

The metropolitan area north of Belfast, combining Newtownabbey and Carrickfergus, can be used as the basis of a new East Antrim seat. Previous boundaries and the commision's current proposals split this area between numerous disparate constituencies. The current review could take the opportunity to unite this largely interconnected urban district along the north shore of Belfast Lough for the first time.

Glengormley Urban DEA Three Mile Water DEA Abbey and Carnmoney Hill wards of Macedon DEA Ballynure ward of Ballyclare DEA Carrick Castle DEA Knockagh DEA Ballycarry & Glynn, Island Magee, Kilwaughter and Whitehead South wards of Larne Lough DEA

Total Electorate 72,440

South Antrim

By adding the County Antrim wards to the north of Lisburn City from the old Lagan Valley seat, South Antrim can be brought within the statutory electoral limits.

Antrim DEA Airport DEA Dunsilly DEA Ballyclare East, Ballyclare West, Ballyrobert and Doagh wards from Ballyclare DEA Killultagh DEA Derryaghy, Harmoney Hill, Lambeg and Magheralave wards from Lisburn North DEA

Total electorate 72,123

Once again the difficulties facing the Commission in redrawing the electoral map of Northern Ireland must be acknowledged. Given the strict limits that the Commission labours under, the 'perfect' rearrangement which respects all local ties, geography and existing boundaries simply isn't possible. However a better reworking most certainly is feasible.

I hope the Commission takes seriously the arguments I have presented into account during future deliberations. I wish the Commission well in the work ahead and look forward to reading it's revised proposals.

Proposed Parliamentary Constituencies in Northern Ireland

Constituency Electorate Deviation from UK Deviation from NI electoral quota electoral average Antrim East 72,440 -3.1% -1.0%

Antrim North 72,764 -2.7% -0.5%

Antrim South 72,123 -3.5% -1.4%

Belfast East 75,225 +0.6% +2.9%

Belfast North 71,963 -3.6% -1.6%

Belfast Southwest 76,220 +1.9% +4.2%

Coleraine & the 71,986 -3.7% -1.6% Causeway Coast Down East 74,925 +0.2% +2.4%

Down North 74,317 -0.6% +1.6%

Down South 74,040 -1.0% +1.2%

Fermanagh & South 71,038 -5.0% -2.9% Tyrone Foyle 71,398 -4.5% -2.4%

Lisburn City and 72,498 -3.0% -0.9% West Down Mid Ulster 73,109 -2.2% 0%

Newry & Armagh 71,959 -3.8% -1.6%

Sperrin 73,893 -1.2% +1.0%

Upper Bann 73,471 -1.7% 0.5%

Total NI 1,243,369 Electorate https://consultations.nidirect.gov.uk/boundary-commission- ni/4815919c/consultation/download_file?squid=question.2016-08-17.4859370250- filesubquestion&user=BHLF-FFDS-VS6W-S