Indigenous Knowledge of Seasonal Weather Forecasting: a Case Study in Six Regions of Uganda
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Vol.4, No.12, 641-648 (2013) Agricultural Sciences http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/as.2013.412086 Indigenous knowledge of seasonal weather forecasting: A case study in six regions of Uganda Joshua S. Okonya1*, Jürgen Kroschel2 1International Potato Center (CIP), Kampala, Uganda; *Corresponding Author: [email protected] 2International Potato Center (CIP), Lima, Peru Received 3 October 2013; revised 6 November 2013; accepted 22 November 2013 Copyright © 2013 Joshua S. Okonya, Jürgen Kroschel. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attri- bution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ABSTRACT undo decades of development efforts and negatively im- pact agriculture, health, settlements, and infrastructure in Indigenous knowledge of seasonal weather fore- developing countries [1-3]. Agriculture in Uganda, like casting could be useful in decision making at in most of sub-Saharan Africa is mainly rainfed and a village level to best exploit the seasonal distri- drought will mean household food insecurity as a result bution of rainfall in order to increase or stabilize of complete crop failure [4]. Rainfall variability together crop yields. We examined existing indigenous with the occurrence of extreme weather events like knowledge by interviewing 192 households in droughts, floods, and landslides is a reality in Uganda six regions of Uganda. Twenty one distinctive (Table 1) and is threatening livelihoods and ecosystems indicators were mentioned by local communities alike [5-10]. for forecasting the start of the dry season, but Early warning systems have proven to be indispensa- only few of these indicators were more consis- ble in preparedness for climatic events like the onset of tently and frequently used in the different dis- rainfall, floods, earthquakes, landslides, droughts and tricts. These included the appearance of bush related famine, and tsunami [11-14]. In West Africa, Tall crickets (Ruspolia baileyi Otte), winds blowing et al. [15] and Braman et al. [16] demonstrated how sea- from the east to the west, the appearance and sonal rainfall forecast information was used to reduce movement of migratory birds such as cattle egrets loss of lives, property, and illness due to floods. Efficient (Bubulcus ibis Linnaeus), and calling by the early warning systems have been shown to greatly re- Bateleur eagle (Terathopius ecaudatus Lesson). duce mortality and morbidity due to extreme weather For prediction of the start of the rainy season, 22 events in the health sector [17]. indicators were mentioned and these included The knowledge of the indigenous people should be in- winds blowing from the west to the east, cuckoo cluded when designing adaptations to climate change birds (Cuculiformes: Cuculidae) start to call, and especially in Africa [18]. Local communities and farmers winged African termite (Coptotermes formosanus have developed a rich knowledge base of predicting cli- Shiraki) swarms leave their nests. Predictors of matic and weather events based on observations of ani- rain in the following days included presence of mals, plants, and celestial bodies, among others [19]. red clouds in the morning. Together with the me- Roncoli et al. [20] demonstrated that indigenous knowl- teorological forecasts, traditional indicators could edge on rainfall forecasting can form an important part of be very useful in rain forecasting and improving the scientific forecasts in Burkina Faso. It was urged that the timing of agricultural activities. understanding how local communities perceive and pre- dict rainfall variability is key to communicating scientific Keywords: Climate Change; Agricultural weather forecasts. The most common environmental in- Meteorology; Early Warning Systems; Oral dicators used by the Bonaman inhabitants of Burkina Tradition; Weather Lore; Uganda Faso were the occurrence of intense heat and/or cold at different times of the year indicating the timing and 1. INTRODUCTION amount of rainfall in the upcoming rainy season and the fruiting of specific tree species to either mean abundant Adverse effects of climate change are threatening to rain or drought. Copyright © 2013 SciRes. OPEN ACCESS 642 J. S. Okonya, J. Kroschel / Agricultural Sciences 4 (2013) 641-648 Table 1. Occurrence of some extreme climatic events over the last 20 years in Uganda. Climate event (period) Impact of climatic event Affected place(s) Reference About 1000 people died due to floods About 150,000 people were displaced El Niño (1997/1998 and Damage to trunk and rural roads 2002) Kapchorwa, About 300 ha of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) were destroyed [5] Floods Sironko Coffee (Coffea spp.) exports dropped by 60% Landslides Submerging of fuel stations by water Over 11,000 people hospitalized and treated for cholera Crop failure Low livestock productivity Soroti, Ngora, Kumi, Severe floods (2007) [10] Infrastructure destruction Katakwi, Serere About 5000 people displaced 400 people died Landslides (2010) Livestock, crop fields and houses destroyed Bududa, Bukwa, Sironko [9,10] Roads blocked Melting of icecaps on Reduced tourism; loss of the icecaps Mt. Rwenzori by 40% Release of carbon locked in glaciers into the atmosphere Kasese [6] due to higher Increased water flow in R. Semiliki, eroding its banks, silting of L. temperatures (1955-2010) Albert, and causing flooding of homes and crop gardens Death of livestock; tsetse fly (Glossina spp.), belt expanded Prolonged drought, Reduced milk yields for dairy farmers Moroto, Kotido, extreme heat and Increased food insecurity; famine; cattle rustling Nakapiripirit, Abim, [7,32] higher temperatures Kaabong (1991-2000) Increased conflict over water, tick-borne diseases, dust storms, chest and eye infections Reduced area for coffee cultivation Increased pest and disease pressure in coffee due coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei Ferrari), nematode, coffee wilt disease Bududa, Kapchorwa, Higher (Tracheomycosis) and coffee leaf rust Bulambuli, Bukwo, temperatures Reduced quality and yield of coffee Kween, Kasese, (1999-2000) Loss of 265.8 million USD or 40% of export revenue Kabale, Kisoro Spread of coffee leaf rust disease to higher altitudes emergence of pests like the stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus Pascoe) and diseases like leaf rust and wilt Extreme heat and New cases of tick-borne diseases Mbarara, Kiruhura, Lyantonde, higher temperatures Expansion of the tsetse fly belt causing nagana and sleeping sickness Sembabule, Rakai, Soroti, Kumi, (2007) Escalation in pest epidemics Isingiro Nakasongola, Karamoja Destroyed all cereal crops [6] Katakwi Locust epidemics (Schistocerca gregaria Forsskål) Destroyed pasture and grain crops (maize Zea mays L. and wheat) Wakiso, Tororo and Pallisa Outbreak of armyworms (Spodoptera frugiperda J. E. Smith) In the rural villages of Rajasthan, India, Pareek and spyros kirkii Hiern) among others [22]. In the south- Trivedi [21] investigated cultural values and indigenous western highlands of Tanzania, Chang’a et al. [23] docu- knowledge of climate change and disaster prediction. mented a good number of signs relied on by the local They established that traditional knowledge systems communities to predict the start and intensity of the rainy were an important tool in environmental conservation season and these included behavior of insects (army- and natural disaster management. Tree (Ficus spp.) flow- worms, grasshoppers, termites, and butterflies), behavior ering and generation of new shoots, appearance of ter- of birds like the swallow-tailed bee-eater (Merops hir- mites, ants, butterflies, and frogs indicated the near rain- undineus Lichtenstein), plant phenology, like the flow- fall onset. In Mberengwa district of Zimbabwe, inter- ering intensity of trees, and wind direction, among others. views of persons over 70 years of age revealed a number Elders in Manicaland and Masvingo provinces in Zim- of traditional weather forecasting indicators including babwe rely on a vast number of biological (singing of birds (southern ground hornbill, Bucorvus leadbeateri nyenze insects, collecting of grass and food by ants and Vigors, rain cuckoo), invertebrates (termites, cicadas), termites to mark the start of the rainy seasons), atmos- and vertebrates (frogs), fruiting of the ebony tree (Dio- pheric (frequent occurrence of mist or fog on mountain Copyright © 2013 SciRes. OPEN ACCESS J. S. Okonya, J. Kroschel / Agricultural Sciences 4 (2013) 641-648 643 tops for the start of rain), and astronomic (position of the portunity to describe important features of their local Milky Way and a group of six stars in the sky) weather weather forecast systems while detailing features that are forecasting indicators [24,25]. important for them. Information on demographic charac- In India, Anandrajaga et al. [26] identified fifteen tra- teristics and indigenous knowledge of forecasting the ditional weather and climate related practices that farm- onset of the rain and dry seasons was collected. Data ers of Tamil Nadu, Coimbatore district follow in their were mainly qualitative and percentages were the major farming systems to help them in forecasting weather statistical tools used to enable the description of socio- events. These included insect behavior (termites, ants, demographic characteristics and early warning signs and dragon flies), frogs’ croaking, dense fog in the morn- used by farmers for prediction of climatic events. ing, and high