A system dynamics analysis of the ‘superclub’ phenomenon in popular youth culture: 1990 - 2004
James Rhys Kearney 2006 Presentation structure:
• History UK ‘rave’ and nightclub scene • Factors contributing to the boom and bust ‘superclub’ reference mode of behaviour 1990 - 2004 • Influence diagram • System dynamics model • Model output • Questions Timeline
• 1977 – 1980 ‘Disco’ Era • 1980s ‘Acid House’ surfaces in the UK • 1988 ‘Second Summer of Love’ • 1990 ‘Acid House Bill’ • 1994 Criminal Justice & Public Order Act
Superclubs
In March 1995, journalist Andy Pemberton coined the term ‘superclubs’ in a small piece in Mixmag (a dance music magazine) noting how organisations such as Cream, The Ministry of Sound, Back to Basics and Hard Times were more than just clubs. They ran DJ agencies, record labels and tours. Their distinctive logos appeared on clothing, merchandise and mix CDs. They were emerging youth brands (Garratt, 1999) Ministry of Sound
£20 million turnover in 1999 • £3.5 million from club • £12.5 million from record label • £4 million from tours, merchandising and media sponsorship Ministry of Sound
“The super DJ and the superclub game is over”
Mark Rodol Chief Executive Ministry of Sound 2003 Timeline continued…
• 1992 Nightclub market – £2.5 billion* (2003 prices) • 1996 Eradication of ‘need’ concept • 2002 ‘Rennaisance’, Midlands, closes • 2002 ‘Gatecrasher’, Sheffield, reduces nights • 2003 ‘Cream’, Liverpool, closes • 2003 Nightclub Market – £1.6 billion* *Mintel Market Research Spin-Off Merchandising (Brand Awareness) + 3. + + 4. Profits + - + Superclub Going Visiting Rate Population Per Club 1. - + 5. - -
7. + New Bar + DJ Fees Openings +
2. + New Club Average Club Openings Door Price
+ 6. Loss Period
Baseline Merchandising Time to Fee Population Entrance Fee Advertising Effect as Population
Av. Club Average Cash Annual DJ Fee (given Capacity Annual No.Visits Possible per Superclub Balance per Club full capacity) existence Total Income Costs and Overheads Nights Open a Year Max Fee per Competition Effect Clubber
Fractional Closure Rate Due to Loss of Profitability Rates and Level Sketch
No.of Superclubs New Superclubs Club Closures
Population Population Going Going to Other to Superclubs New Additions Superclubs' Loss of Clubs & Bars Allegiance
Average Cash Balance per Club Total Income Costs and Overheads
Average Entrance Fee Adjustment to Av. Entrance Fee Superclub population rate of new additions
Merchandising Advertising Effect as Population Function of Sales Going to Superclubs New Additions Growth Factor
Eradication of Reduction due Inital Trend Value 'Need' Concept to Increased (1996) Alternatives Trend Period Product Lifespan Time to Full Affect % of On-Licensed Premises with SHCs No.On Licensed
Baseline Time to Fee Entrance Fee
Average Entrance Fee Club Profitability Adjustment to Av. Index Entrance Fee
Entrance Fee Fee Increment Adjustment Factor Stoppage Point Required Fee Adjustment to Maintain Profitability Required Profitability Index
500,000 people 300,000 people/yr
0 people 0 people/yr 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Time (Year)
Population Going to Superclubs : Run 1 people New Additions : Run 1 people/yr Superclubs' Loss of Allegiance : Run 1 people/yr DJ Fee and Income Factors 4 M £/(yr*club) 60 £/visit 40 clubs 6 M £/club
0 £/(yr*club) 0 £/visit 0 clubs -6 M £/club 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Time (Year)
"Annual DJ Fee (given full capacity)" : Run 1 £/(yr*club) Average Entrance Fee : Run 1 £/visit "No.of Superclubs" : Run 1 clubs Average Cash Balance per Club : Run 1 £/club DJ Fee Policy Experimentation
Population Going to Superclubs 4 M
3 M
2 M
1 M
0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Time (Year)
Population Going to Superclubs : Run 4 people Population Going to Superclubs : Run 3 people Population Going to Superclubs : Run 2 people Population Going to Superclubs : Run 1 people Further Model Development
• Decline in Superclub venues not isolated within whole nightclub industry – Increased competition due to changing licensing laws • Introduction 24 hour licensing laws • Resurgence of ‘raves’ in recent times – Macro-media influence • Subculture development with strong fashion affect Conclusion
• Legislation against ‘rave’ movement led to sizeable potential market for Superclubs contributing towards ‘boom and bust’ reference mode of behaviour • Changes in licensing laws led to highly competitive night-time economy • Carrying capacity of system eroded by an elite group of DJs whom exploited there position as the ‘must have’ commodity (example of a ‘tragedy of the commons’)