A stolen horse, a queen, and the 2015 Kentucky Derby

George’s annual musings and predictions

“It’s May, it’s May. The lusty month of May.” Queen Guinevere in Camelot, celebrated the month with lyrics that apply to every horseplayer. May is when “everyone makes divine mistakes,” especially in the Kentucky Derby.

Insiders know that Guinevere did not spend a full day dancing around the maypole, chasing beaus like a medieval Sadie Hawkins. She was a British queen, and in their true tradition, Guinevere undoubtedly made a quick exit to the local races. Songsters Lerner & Loewe got it wrong. They didn’t know British queens.

Flash forward to 1704 and Queen Anne, a real queen who ruled Britain from 1702-1714. With a wink and a nod, Anne is as responsible as any person for the thoroughbred breed as we know it today. Well, maybe I’m stretching, but here’s the theory.

Tom Darley, counsel to the Levant (Syria) had just purchased the prize Arab colt of Sheikh Mirza to breed to his father’s mares. English horses, bred to carry weight for long distances over high fences, lacked the speed you see in today’s racehorses. Darley’s imported Arab, only 15 hands high, had dominant genes which stamped the foals of every mare with his speed and handsome appearance.

So, what was Queen Anne’s role? We know she liked a fast horse and drove a one horse chaise. Jonathan Swift observed that Anne drove herself “furiously like Jehu and a mighty hunter like Nimrod.” (This passed for flattery in the Augustan age of Swift and Alexander Pope.)

Like many of her countrymen, Anne must have found the English racehorses too slow and applauded Darley’s efforts to add some zip to staid bloodlines. How do we know that Anne was aware of the new stallion? Sheikh Mirza wrote to Queen Anne about the “sale” of the Darley Arabian.

He has been “foully stolen” by “British sailors.”

Seller’s remorse or truth? We don’t know what actually happened in Syria in 1704, or why the colt was shipped from Smyrna (Turkey) instead of the much nearer Aleppo (Syria) where the Sheikh held sway. The buyers presumably accused the Sheikh of keeping the money (or a flintlock, under some accounts) and then reneging.

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Whatever the facts, Anne’s ministers did not urge diplomacy with the Sheikh. The Darley “import” stayed in England, and covered English mares until the ripe age of 30. You will see his descendants this Saturday. In a fair twist, many of the best offspring from Sheikh Mirza’s prize are now owned by modern day sheikhs.

Breeding big English mares with a smaller, hot-blooded Arab stallion created the thoroughbred, a genetic masterpiece. At least eighty percent (80%) of the world’s thoroughbreds trace back to the Darley Arabian. A horse cannot be registered as a thoroughbred unless the pedigree starts either with the Darley Arabian or two other Arabs, all imported by British sportsmen looking for an edge at the races. The Darley Arabian

Whiskey thieves nabbed

I reported last year on the theft of a few hundred bottles of Pappy Van Winkle. When aged for 25 years, it can sell for $2,500 per bottle, country Nectar for the Wall Street set. Anyway, this crime against civilization turns out to have been an inside job. Dirty rotten scoundrels. Nine Kentuckians were indicted last Tuesday in Frankfurt County.

Classes in history and current events now adjourned. Turn the page for this year’s prediction. We had the winner last year.

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And the horses, in order of finish, are:

Name Select Program Odds Comment profiles Dortmund p. 4 #8 3-1 Runs close to the pace but not as a leader, rallies to 1st on far turn. His macho temperament is the only concern. Frosted p. 7 #15 15-1 Mid-pack, rallies on far turn. Minor throat operation did the trick. Upstart P. 10 #19 15-1 Underrated NY-bred may have enough speed to overcome the bad post. American pp. 6-7 #18 5-2 Disappoints as the favorite. Lacks condition for 1 & Pharaoh ¼ miles, throws a shoe, gets bumped hard trying to get position. Danzig Moon p.9 #5 30-1 He is maturing and has a good late kick. If the race falls apart, he could do better. Watch out. He bites. El Kabeir P. 8 #7 30-1 Calvin Borel gives him a flawless ride with the colt’s new come-from-behind running style. Mubtaahiij p. 8 #6 20-1 From Dubai with love. Shows his Dubai wins were not a fluke. Tencendur #4 30-1 If he runs the same way as he did in the Wood, he could really surprise. Carpe Diem #2 8-1 Rotten post; needs luck and a super ride from John Velasquez. Has the capability to finish in the top three. Firing Line p. 9 #10 12-1 14 length winner in NM with no respect because he does seem to need the lead, and it will be hot up front on Saturday. He has been close to Dortmund twice. With Gary Stevens and luck, he could win this race. Materiality #3 Another talented speedster. He cannot overcome the curse that he never started as a 2 year old. Bad call to race him today. International #12 20-1 Has a late kick and three wins in New Orleans, but Star beat nothing. If they all fall down, he gets a share. Keen Ice #14 30-1 A plodder, but he actually has a chance to rally into a decent placing with all of the speed in the race. It’s a #13 30-1 Nothing special. Knockout Ocho Ocho #1 50-1 #1 post is the worst, and he will be in a speed duel Ocho as well. Far Right #20 30-1 Has some late gas, but compromised by bad post. Bolo #9 30-1 Waste of a nice post position.

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Mr. Z #17 50-1 One win in 12 starts. War Story #16 50-1 They take the blinkers off. It’s a bit late to experiment. OK horse, but overmatched. Framento #11 50-1 A plodder who gets in because of the scratch of Stanford / Starts in Post 20.

Select Profiles

Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Frosted, El Kabeir, Mubtaahij, Danzig Moon, Firing Line & Upstart

Dortmund 3-1

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Martin Garcia

Readers, there is no three year old in the world who could beat this horse in a match race. He is massive, at least 17 hands high, and is undefeated in six races. He starts fast, he runs fast. Based in California, he has won at Churchill Downs by 7 & ½ lengths. His trainer says Dortmund simply tolerates Santa Anita, but loves the surface at Churchill Downs.

My special take and something you must know about this year’s Derby. As usual, only 20 horses can get in, based on points won at prestigious “prep” races at various tracks round the country. With points to be won in CA, NY, AK, FL, KY, LA and NM, trainers usually search for a prep that other good horses have skipped. Take the easy win. That’s been the story for most of these this year, except Dortmund. He has faced and beaten a really good horse, Firing Line, twice, at Santa Anita. How good is Firing Line? His trainer, Simon Callaghan finally wised up and took him to a million dollar prep at New Mexico’s Sunland Park to avoid Dortmund. Firing Line won by 14 lengths in a canter. None of the other favorites for this year’s Derby have faced a horse of Firing Line’s caliber. So how good is Dortmund?

Other pluses: Dortmund drew the very favorable post position 8. He’s not stuck inside and he’s not on the far outside. His sire, Big Brown, won the Derby and the Preakness in 2008, so there are genes in his favor for the 1 & ¼ mile trip.

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Negatives:

Temperment, and lots of early speed horses in the field. Dortmund was very badly mannered in the Churchill Downs paddock recently. Big crowds, lots of excitement. If he gets into an aggressive speed duel and does not rate kindly behind the leaders, some loafer will pass him in the 1 & ¼ miles.

Stupid name. It doesn’t roll off the tongue, does it? Dortmund, now termed the “green city” of Germany, is an unexceptional holdover from the coal and steel era of the Ruhr valley. However, it has a very good soccer team, and the owner is passionate about the sport. In fact, his Bayern, who won the Breeders Cup Classic last year, is similarly named after a European soccer team.

About the owner:

Kaleem Shah has a racing pedigree himself. An emigree from India, his father and uncle are horse trainers there. Dad won the Indian Triple Crown but gave his son good advice. Make some money; then buy a horse. Kaleem’s company is one of the fastest growing in the US, is a major IP contractor with the Defense Department, and he got his start with a $3,000 contract from GE. His silks are red, white and blue.

Prediction: Dortmund sits off a fast pace and wins. If he beats himself with rank behavior, he will be out of the money and a closer will get the roses.

Dortmund winning as a “baby” last year at Churchill. Look at the size of him. Only 2 years old in this picture.

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American Pharaoh 5-2 Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Victor Espinoza He is the two year old champion. He won the $1M Arkansas Derby by 8 lengths without a bit of effort. His jockey rode California Chrome to victory last year. He is the nicest moving horse I have ever seen, but he won’t win the Derby.

Pharaoh is the winner of four out of five races, with his first start the only blemish. Even though an injury kept him out of the Breeders Cup Race for Juveniles, they made him the Two Year Old of the Year. His most recent prep, the $1M Arkansas Derby, was simply a public workout. It was Pharaoh and the field, and he made it look so easy. It’s the way he travels, and everyone is noticing. So smooth, you can’t tell that he’s going fast. The Churchill Clocker who timed his workout on April 26 said it was the best work he had seen in 30 years. His sire, Pioneer of the Nile, got a second in this race, so he has the genes.

So why do I know he won’t win? 

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Negatives:

Conditioning. The best candidate for a Derby win will have exerted himself a bit (but not too much) by beating good horses in a prep. Baffert sent American Pharaoh to Arkansas so that he would not have to compete with Dortmund. The horses in Arkansas this year just weren’t that good. In fact, the horses he beat up in California as a 2 year old were not stand-outs either. It’s not the Pharaoh’s fault, but running unopposed in happy romps against mediocrities did not properly prepare him for that final Churchill quarter of a mile with this talented field. I don’t know if he has ever been bumped in a race, so Saturday will be a wake-up call.

Feet. American Pharaoh has bad feet that bruise easily and do not always hold the shoes. He has been fitted with a full metal plate under a front shoe to prevent bruising. It seems to work, and the trainer says it’s a non-event. I just wonder if his training and racing schedules have been easier than needed due to this reason.

Post 18. In the “old” days, horses who drew a post this wide were considered out of it. That’s not always the case, but it’s something to overcome.

About the owner:

Ahmed Zayat is a graduate of the BU Business School and moved here from Egypt after selling a large beverage company to Heineken. As a boy, he rode show horses in Egypt. He lives in Teaneck, N.J. and is into thoroughbred racing in the biggest way. In addition to Pharaoh, he has entered Mr. Z. and El Kabeir. Getting one horse to the Derby in a lifetime is a dream. Three in one year? Wow. What do they teach at BU?

Notables and longshots

Frosted 15-1

They made a lot of changes after a bad race in Florida. Importantly, they think he flipped a palate and it blocked his airways in the stretch run. A very minor medical procedure may have fixed that, because he was an easy winner in the $1M Wood Memorial at Aqueduct (NY) on April 4. His sire, Tapit, costs $300,000 for a mating, and his offspring prove it’s a bargain.

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El Kabeir 30-1

This horse showed a different dimension in his last two races in NY. Instead of being on the lead, he is settling and rallying with even strides. I liked his 3rd place finish in the 1 & 1/8 mile Wood Memorial. He finished 5 lengths behind Frosted. On Saturday, with a hot pace and an extra 1/8 of a mile, he could be in the hunt, but he’s a bit small and needs luck.

Oh, and guess who the new rider will be? Calvin Borel, three time Derby winner. That’s tough luck for journeyman jock, CC Lopez, but it may make a difference to get Calvin’s experience in this quirky race.

Mubtaahij (Elated) 20-1

The mystery horse from the Mideast is well-conditioned with breathtaking acceleration.

Trainer Michael de Kock has a fabulous reputation for shipping horses round the world and winning races after quarantines.

Not only is this horse a heart stopper for robust good looks, he will run without Lasix, the only horse in the field to dispense with what has become an everyday designer drug in American racing. One little wrinkle: agricultural rules prohibit feed from overseas, so they had to switch to American grain, which could have been a problem for a creature of habit like a horse. But he is eating up and healthy. Mubtaahiij could be the big surprise of the day.

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Danzig Moon 30-1

On paper, he’s an obvious late bloomer, but he is a rugged-looking horse who has a decent late kick and seems to be blooming at just the right time. Other than his fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby, he has run well. The trainer blames the bad Tampa result on a virus, because Danzig Moon spiked a fever shortly after the race. At 30:1, what’s to lose? One warning. Don’t hand feed him carrots. He thinks he’s a big stud and likes to bite. That’s not evil, just Alpha manners in the horse world. His grooms were proudly displaying their wounds on TV a few days ago.

Firing Line 12-1

Firing Line has true grit. In this photo, he’s at the throatlatch of you know who – Dortmund. They have been at each other twice, and have complimented each other. None of the other colts this year have fought hard against an opponent with the quality of Firing Line (or Dortmund). You get 12-1 on Firing Line.

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Upstart 15-1

Three firsts, three seconds, and a third out of seven starts. He’s a NY Bred who has been based in sunny (muggy) Florida. His trainer says he loves the chill Kentucky air and is feeling really great. The 19th post position is a concern, and he has American Pharaoh directly inside him. Lots to think about, but enjoy the picture.

The normal admonitions and advance excuses.

Many of you have read this before, but just a reminder. Selecting horses is not an exact science. As a boy, I remember a lady who sat in front of me at Saratoga, picking winner after winner based on the names of her pets and grandchildren. By the 7th race, my ears had pricked up, but the magic immediately stopped. Maybe it was the name of my pets. Go Tweety? It’s hard to find a fast horse named after a parakeet, so I decided it was better to read the Racing Form.

The Kentucky Derby is this Saturday at 6:35 PM. If you are at a party, I hope you draw Dortmund.

Best to all.

George

May 1, 2015

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