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Appendix C – Pre-Analysis Plan Introduction

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Appendix C – Pre-Analysis Plan Introduction Appendix C – Pre-analysis Plan Introduction A critical constraint to food production and food security in Ghana is low soil fertility. Evidence from past projects indicates that measures to increase soil fertility and crop yields are viable and cost-effective when farmers have access to information on good management practices, site-specific input-use recommendations, and input and output markets (Africare 2015). One particular solution along these lines is integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), or a flexible set of economically and socially acceptable uses of existing resources in conjunction with organic and mineral inputs to increase productivity (Vanaluawe 2004). Prior agronomic research on ISFM has demonstrated its efficacy under controlled scientific conditions and under farmers’ conditions (Vanluawe et al. 2005; Place et al. 2003). While the dissemination of information on ISFM is often considered the mandate of public extension systems, there is evidence suggesting that capacity among agricultural extension agents to provide advisory services on ISFM is generally low (Nkonya et al. 2015). This is consistent with wider concerns about the limited capacity of public extension systems to deliver advisory services on a wide variety of technologies and practices to small-scale, resource-poor farmers (Haug 1999; Anderson 2007; Davis 2008; Birner et al. 2009). In effect, traditional extension services have been relatively more successful—or simply more focused on—the provision of advisory services on basic input use such as improved cultivars, inorganic fertilizer, and agrochemicals, and are less equipped to provide information on relatively complex technologies and practices such as ISFM. There is a growing body of evidence on the impact of alternative approaches to promoting such complex technologies and practices, including various extension approaches such as farmer field schools (FFS; Davis et al. 2012), enhanced training and visit (T&V) systems (Kondylis et al. 2014), and other demand-driven extension services (Klerkx and Leeuwis 2008). A similarly rich body of evidence has emerged around the role of social networks and individual learning dynamics in complex technology adoption processes (Hanna et al 2014; Conley and Udry 2001). However, conclusions are almost always specific to context – to the farmers, crops, agro-ecological conditions, infrastructure, institutions, markets, and policies that influence the target population. The evaluation described here aims to expand this body of evidence by exploring the impact of Africare’s efforts to promote ISFM practices and marketing strategies through a training of trainers (ToT) approach on input use, management practices, and productivity enhancement in the Volta region of Ghana. AFricare’s project, funded by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, is being implemented in close collaboration with the Ghanaian Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA), district-level extension services and other key stakeholders in the Volta region. For this reason, there is scope for this evaluation to influence the ISFM scaling-up process. By directly engaging decision-makers as they explore their options around ISFM promotion and scaling-up, there is an opportunity to improve evidence-based decision- making on the investment of public and private resources in strengthening, training and empowering farmers and farmer-based organizations not only in the immediate project area, but also throughout Ghana. This evaluation specifically assesses the extent to which Africare’s project results in changes in awareness, learning, uptake, adoption, productivity, and welfare among targeted beneficiaries. This study will fill a knowledge gap in the evidence on extension by rigorously evaluating the extent to which Africare’s use of ToT to disseminate a suite of ISFM technologies and practices will effect improvements at the farm and household level for a range of outcome variables that are of interest to Africare and its stakeholders. Project overview The Intervention The Volta region’s predominantly agricultural sector is characterized by low productivity, limited input use, low soil fertility, land degradation from shifting cultivation (“slash-and-burn”) practices, and low yields for most food staple crops. To address these issues, Africare’s intervention promotes the adoption of a suite of ISFM technologies and practices that ultimately aim to increase on-farm yields and the farm incomes of smallholders in the Volta region. Africare’s project specifically promotes the sustainable intensification of maize, rice, cowpea, and cassava cultivation with the provision of information on (a) production inputs and their use, (b) integrated soil management practices, and (c) marketing strategies and services. This information intervention is provided by Africare-trained, MoFA-employed agricultural extension agents (AEAs) and targeted to members of farmer-based organizations (FBOs) in selected districts of the region. The Africare project, now in its second phase,1 targets 20,000 farmers over a three-year period (2015 to 2018). The project’s goal is to reach out to roughly 7,000 farmers per year in six target districts of the Volta Region – Jasikan, Kajebi, Kpando, Hohoe, Afajato South and North Dayi. Its main intervention point and modality is the training of trainers through which it plans to train 30 AEAs in year one, each of whom are capable of providing training to between 90 and 150 farmers per semester. Evaluation Design The evaluation study proposed here will use a difference-in-difference (DID) approach and propensity score matching (PSM) techniques to evaluate the impact of Africare’s intervention among smallholders in Ghana’s Volta region. The DID approach and PSM techniques aim to develop a credible counterfactual with which to compare treatment effects on “treated” participants in Africare’s project. The study will base its analysis on comparisons between two groups: 1. Treatment group: FBO members who reside in one of the six districts where Africare-trained AEAs will conduct training sessions 2. Control group: FBO members who reside in one of six districts where Africare-trained AEAs will NOT conduct training sessions The DID approach and PSM techniques will be used to identify and quantify the causal relationship between participation in training sessions and outcome variables related to in increases in (1) awareness, learning, uptake, and adoption of selected ISFM-related technologies, (2) land and labor productivity, (3) returns to and incomes from farming, and (4) household food security and welfare. The DID approach and PSM techniques will be used to identify and quantify the causal relationship between participation in ISFM training and the outcome variables of interest. The DID approach and PSM techniques allow for comparison of treated households against a set of similar but untreated households that are identified based on observable characteristics, with comparisons being made both before and after the intervention. This approach offers a fairly straightforward means of evaluating the impact of Africare’s project when compared against similar households who were not part of the project (with vs. without), and 1 Africare’s project is the second phase of activities in the Volta Region, and began in September 2015. Phase I of the Africare project, also funded by AGRA, concluded in July 2014. The highlight of Phase I was the establishment of three “one stop centers” (OSCs) in three districts of the Volta region namely, Jasikan, Kadjebi and Hohoe (after the change in administrative boundaries the OSC that was intended for Hohoe is now in Afadjato South). By design, OSCs are structures that encompass a suite of agricultural services including an agro-input shop, warehouse, drying floor, training center, and farmers’ library. Phase II of the project shifts focus away from OSCs and places greater emphasis on the ToT approach described here. 1 by controlling for exogenous changes affecting both project participants and non-participants (before vs. after). This comparison will be made between treated group farmers and control group farmers. The study will use DID to estimate the intention to treat (ITT) impact of ISFM training, as well as the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) using kernel matching, nearest neighbor matching, and other appropriate matching estimators. Sample The sample consists of smallholder farmers who cultivate at least one of the three target crops – maize, cassava, and cowpea—and belong to a FBO. The treatment districts where Africare’s intervention is active are Jasikan, Kadjebi, Hohoe, Afadjato South, North Dayi, and Kpando. The control districts—Biakoye, South Dayi, Ho Municipal, Ho West, Kranchi East, and Nkwanta South—were purposefully based on proximity and similarities in agro-ecological and socio-economic characteristics to the treatment districts. A sample of treatment communities was drawn using probability proportional to size sampling. All communities in the control districts were included in the sample to accommodate the need for a significantly large set of control households to draw from for the purposes of finding an area of common support in the propensity score matching exercise. A random sample of households was drawn from a list of FBO members in each community. During survey implementation, enumeration teams were able to conduct surveys in 59 treatment communities and 75 control communities. In total, data were collected from
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