Summary for Policymakers

José M. Moreno (Spain), Clara Laguna-Deﬁ or (Spain), Paulina Aldunce (Chile), Vicente Barros (Argentina), Bibiana Bilbao (Venezuela), Mercedes Bustamante (Brazil), Eduardo Calvo Buendía (Peru), Inés Camilloni (Argentina), Omar Darío Cardona (Colombia), Jorge Cortés (Costa Rica), Gian Carlo Delgado (México), Íñigo Losada (Spain), José A. Marengo (Brasil), Carlos Mena (Ecuador), Jaime Mendo (Peru), Ana Rosa Moreno (Mexico), Úrsula Oswald Spring (Mexico), Germán Poveda (Colombia), Fabio R. Scarano (Brazil), Miguel A. Taboada (Argentina), and Sebastián Vicuña (Chile).

This text should be cited as:

Moreno J.M., C. Laguna-Deﬁ or, P. Aldunce, V. Barros, B. Bilbao, M. Bustamante, E. Calvo Buendía, I. Camilloni, O.D. Cardona Arboleda, J. Cortés, G.C. Delgado Ramos, I. Losada, J.A. Marengo, C. Mena, J. Mendo, A.R. Moreno, Ú. Oswald Spring, G. Poveda, F.R. Scarano, M.A. Taboada, and S. Vicuña, 2020: Summary for policy makers –RIOCCADAPT Report. In: Adaptation to Climate Change Risks in Ibero-American Countries — RIOCCADAPT Report. [Moreno, J.M., C. Laguna-Deﬁ or, V. Barros, E. Calvo Buendía, J.A. Marengo, and Ú. Oswald Spring (eds.)], McGraw Hill, Madrid, Spain. Summary for Policymakers

SUMMARY – TABLE OF CONTENTS

A) Introduction...... IX B) Context of RIOCC Countries...... X C) Relevance of the Sectors and Systems Included in the Report...... XII D) Components of Climate Change Risk and Impacts...... XV E) Main Climate Change Risks...... XIX F) Adaptation Options and Actions...... XXII G) Examples of Useful Experiences for Adaptation...... XXVI H) Barriers to and Opportunities for Adaptation...... XXIX I) Future Needs to Advance Adaptation...... XXXII

VIII RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

To contextualize adaptation actions, the report also includes A) Introduction an analysis of vulnerabilities, as well as of climate change risk and impacts. Report presentation The purpose of the RIOCCADAPT report is to assess the Climate change adaptation within a risk climate change adaptation actions being carried out in the member countries of the Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de framework Cambio Climático (Ibero-American Network of Climate Change Offices or RIOCC), i.e., Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking Climate change carries risks that arise as a result of the in- countries in the Americas, the Caribbean, and the Iberian teraction of three components: hazard exposure and vulnera- Peninsula (Figure 1). bility (Box 1, Figure 2). Risks are materialized in the form of impacts that, in turn, can affect development and governance The adaptation analysis has focused on some of the main pathways, or in the form of hazards themselves either directly sectors and systems that are relevant to RIOCC countries, or indirectly originating from climate change. and includes the more important extreme weather and climate risks and key sectors such as urban settlements and Climate change adaptation (CCA) refers to any action, activ- coastal areas (Table 1). Each chapter includes several case ity, plan, or program whose final aim is to reduce or prevent studies whose experiences provide useful conclusions for climate change risks and their subsequent impacts through adaptation. risk management, or to exploit opportunities arising as a

Andorra

Portugal Cuba Spain

Mexico Dominican Republic Venezuela Colombia Ecuador Brazil Guatemala Peru Honduras Nicaragua Bolivia Paraguay Chile Uruguay

Costa Rica Argen�na Panama

El Salvador

Figure 1. Member countries of the Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (RIOCC). Source: compiled by the authors based on SMHI (2008).

RIOCCADAPT REPORT IX Summary for Policymakers

Table 1. Report content by chapter. fact, the most attractive adaptation actions are usually those that also offer development benefits, such as a reduction in Subject area Chapter Topics addressed in each chapter vulnerabilities. Conceptual Framework and Regional 1 I. General Context Introduction Society, Governance, Inequality, and 2 B) Context of RIOCC Countries Adaptation Terrestrial and Freshwater RIOCC countries cover areas from 43ºN to 55ºS, with alti- 3 Ecosystems tudes reaching 6,960 m (Aconcagua, Argentina), and com- II. Natural Systems prise ecosystems ranging from high altitude plateaus (Alti- 4 Coastal and Marine Ecosystems plano, 3,800 m) to great plains (Amazonia, Los Llanos, La 5 Biodiversity Pampa), the most extreme deserts (Atacama) to extremely 6 Water Resources rainy areas (El Chocó, Colombia). Thanks to this diversity, III. Managed there is a great representation of the planet’s climates and 7 Agriculture Sector Systems of its terrestrial or marine biomes. For practical purposes, 8 Fishing Resources the study area was divided into nine subregions (Figure 4). 9 Storms and Hurricanes RIOCC countries have large socioeconomic differences IV. Climate 10 Floods and Droughts between and within themselves. Poverty is widely spread. Life expectancy is lower than in more developed countries. Disaster Risks 11 Slope Instability and Landslides Gender inequality still predominates. RIOCC countries are a 12 Wildfires source of migration within the region and abroad. 13 Urban and Rural Settlements The region has been experiencing widespread temperature V. Other Key Areas 14 Coastal Areas rises associated with greenhouse gas emissions of anthro- and Sectors 15 Tourism pogenic origin. Changes in precipitations are more varied and include both increases (southeast South America) and 16 Human Health decreases (Spain, Chile, Mexico, northeast Brazil). In the medium term (mid-21st century or when global warming exceeds 1.5ºC), climate change is expected to contin- consequence of climate change (Figure 3). Adaptation is con- ue to increase global surface temperature, although to a ceived as something that is planned in order to face a future varying degree in terms of its magnitude in the different that will be different. subregions. Precipitation will continue to increase where it al- On the other hand, people, either individually or collectively, ready has done so (southeast South America) and decrease and communities react to the adversities they face, prompt- in the semi-arid subtropical areas, both in the Americas and ing them to develop actions with an adaptive value. Adap- in Europe (Chile, Mexico, Iberian Peninsula), or in the tropical tation actions are often em bedded within other policies. In areas of northeastern Brazil and Central America.

Box 1. Some key concepts related to risk and adaptation

Hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced phys- Risk: The potential for consequences where something of human value ical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, (including humans) is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain. Risk injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to prop- is often represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events erty, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends (R=P*C; environmental resources. where R= risk, P=probability, C=consequences or impacts). Risks result from the interaction between hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and Exposure: The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, they are expressed as: R=H*E*V (R=risk; H= hazard; E= exposure; environmental functions, services and resources, infrastructure, or eco- V= vulnerability). nomic, social or cultural assets in places and settings that could be Risk Management: Plans, actions, or policies applied to reduce the like- adversely affected. lihood or consequences of risks or to respond to their consequences. Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affect- Adaptation: The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and ed. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or prevent including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human cope and adapt. intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.

X RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

IMPACTS

SOCIOECONOMICSOCIOECO CLIMATEIMATE VVulnerabilityulnerability PROCESSESPROCES

Natural Socioeconomic variability pathways

Hazards RISK Adaptation and mitigation Anthropogenic actions climate change

Governance EExposurexposure

Emissions Land use changes

Other hazards and stressors

Figure 2. Conceptual risk framework, expressed as the product of the interaction between climate and climate change hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, which in human systems mostly depend on socioeconomic processes that determine the socioeconomic pathways, adaptation and mitigation actions, and governance. Risks materialize into impacts that, in turn, may affect climate or socioeconomic processes. These may affect other factors that also contribute to the risk, insofar as greenhouse gas emissions, changes in land-use, and other hazards and stressors affect climate change or through direct actions on the risks themselves. Source: modified from Chap. 19, AR5, WG2, IPCC, 2014 (Oppenheimer et al., 2014).

New risk Risk management Vulnerability Vulnerability Ini�al risk

Hazards Risk Hazards Risk Climate Change

Exposure Exposure

Residual risk

Adapta�on

Figure 3. Climate change brings about risks that are greater than those already in existence or new risks all of which require management in order to reduce, where possible, the corresponding impacts. Adaptation, therefore, seeks to act upon all three risk components. An intervention on climate hazards may be less feasible and therefore actions applied to the other two risk components will be more important. Even with adaptation, it will be impossible to mitigate risk in its totality, meaning there will be a residual risk that needs to be addressed. Source: compiled by the authors based on Chap. 19, AR5, WG2, IPCC, 2014 (Oppenheimer et al., 2014).

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XI Summary for Policymakers

IBE

MEX CAC

AMZ

NEB NAP MEX = Mexico CAC = Central America and Caribbean SSA AMZ = Amazonia CAP NEB = Northeastern Brazil SSA = Southeastern South America NAP = North Andean Paciﬁc CAP = Central Andean Paciﬁc PAT = Patagonia IBE = Iberian Peninsula PAT

0 1,5 00 3,000 6,000 9,0 00 12,000 15,000 km Figure 4. Topographical map of RIOCC countries and geographical division used in this report. Source: compiled by the authors based on Magrin et al. (2014) and Seneviratne et al. (2012).

Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing in certain coun- few countries—dependent on a practically subsistence-based tries, although average emissions per person are much lower farming, as well as the numerous indigenous populations than those of more developed countries. Emissions from and gender inequality are, among others, some of the main land-use changes are extremely high in certain countries. characteristics of the societies of many RIOCC countries. The political framework for cooperation and coordination of Moreover, many of these populations are located in risk climate change policies is poorly developed. In general, the areas and are therefore highly exposed and not very resil- fight against climate change has not been a priority goal for ient to climatic change due to the abundance of low quality, the various regional entities and bodies in which the region’s self-constructed housing. This makes them highly vulnerable countries participate. to climate-related hazards.

C) Relevance of the Sectors and Natural systems The terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems of RIOCC coun- Systems Included in the Report tries contain nearly 800 million hectares of forest areas, 570 million hectares of wild savannas, 700 million hectares Society, governance and inequality of productive land, over 30% of the planet’s available freshwater, and about 40% of total renewable water resources. Widespread economic and social inequalities, pockets of ur- These are one of the region’s most valuable assets due to ban and peri-urban poverty, a rural population—dominant in their strategic importance in sustainable development. They

XII RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

constitute the foundation of a wide range of human activi- greenhouse gas emissions, where enteric fermentation of ties, such as agriculture, fishing, and tourism, among others, ruminants is the main source (34%-55%). which produce market goods and services, and they are an The agricultural sector of RIOCC countries is very heteroge- important source of income and employment. neous. In most Latin American and Caribbean countries, a RIOCC countries harbor an extraordinary diversity of coastal more or less high proportion of the rural population carries and marine ecosystems that contribute extraordinary socio- out a type of small-scale agriculture that has little or no economic services. This diversity of ecosystems include, bearing on international markets. It often revolves around among others, mangroves, estuaries, marshes, seagrass subsistence-based family and peasant farming, using ances- beds, coral reefs and macro-algae forests, as well as deep- tral practices, although some family farms also engage in sea regions. capitalist production. In contrast, there are countries with a smaller rural population and a larger land area (e.g., Argen- Ibero-America is exceedingly rich in biodiversity. The Amer- tina, Brazil and Paraguay) that have a more entrepreneurial icas in general house 29% of all seed plant species on the type of high-tech agricultural activity, with a strong focus on planet, 41% of birds, 35% of mammals, 51% of amphibians exportation. and 35% of reptiles, the overwhelming majority of which are found in South America, Mesoamerica and the Caribbe- Fisheries and aquaculture are extremely significant sectors in an. The Amazonian rainforest is estimated to host around some of the region’s countries, contributing more than 10% 1/10 of all plants and animals. Northern Andes alone house of the world’s fishery production. In Latin America and the Ca- around 45,000 species of plants of which 44% are endemic. ribbean alone, this sector provides jobs for almost 2.4 million The Iberian Peninsula is also the most species rich area in people. Of the 25 leading countries in the world catch rank- Europe, with over 50% of all plants and animals of the conti- ing, 6 of them belong to Ibero-America, in the following order nent. To this it must be added the extraordinary biodiversity of importance: Peru (5th world producer), Chile (12th), Mexico of the Canary, Azores and Madeira islands. This biodiversity (16th), Spain (19th), Argentina (22nd) and Ecuador (23rd). is essential for the flow of ecosystem services and their The Humboldt Current System (Pacific South East) is the functions, and is vital for food security, the economy and most productive marine ecosystem in terms of fisheries at cultural and identity values, among others. a global level and is dominated by a single species (Engrau- lis ringens or anchovy) that contributes more than 30% to the total catches of RIOCC countries. This species is mainly Managed systems intended for fishmeal and fish oil production used in the The region has a heterogeneous distribution of available wa- production of feed for aquaculture, poultry and livestock, ter resources. Central and South America are regions with a among others. high average availability of water resources, but distributed heterogeneously within the region and within each country. The amount of resources, in terms of per capita availability, Climate disaster risks is very different between countries, nearing the water stress Hurricanes and storms constitute one of the greatest haz- limit in certain countries (especially in the Caribbean and the ards in Latin America and the Caribbean. Between 1970 Iberian Peninsula). and 2010, 70 climate-related natural disasters occurred The primary water-using sector in the region is agriculture, in the region, 31 in Central America and Mexico, 16 in with values nearing 70% of total water use, despite rain- South America, and 23 in the Caribbean. Of these, 40 were fed agriculture being the main cultivation type, and in some caused by storms and hurricanes, 14 by El Niño periods, cases representing more than 90% of water resources. Its only 3 by La Niña periods, and 14 by neutral periods. use for hydropower generation is also a relevant factor in Disasters caused by storms and hurricanes accounted for the region compared to other regions of the world. Despite 50.2% of the deaths, 37.3% of the affected population, improvements in access to drinking water in urban areas, 41.3% of damages, and 38.4% of total losses associated access to it water in rural areas remains a major challenge with climate-related disasters. Disasters caused by El Niño in many countries of the region. and La Niña accounted for 4.1% of the deaths, 48.8% of the affected population, 47.8% of damages, and 52% of The rural population in RIOCC countries reaches 130 million total losses. In the Iberian Peninsula, southwestern and people, with a proportion that varies from 8% to 47%, ac- polar front storms in winter, as well as intense storms cording to the country. This rural population produces a total in summer and autumn, particularly in the Mediterranean of 250.8 million tons of cereals and oilseeds, of which four area, also cause heavy losses. countries (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Spain) account for 84% of the production. Three RIOCC countries together (Bra- The costs of damages and losses caused by climate-related zil, Argentina and Mexico) account for 68.8% of all agricultural disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean during the land in the region. These lands are mostly used (72.5%) to 1972-2010 period are estimated at US$106.427 billion, produce livestock fodder (pastures and grazing land). The of which US$21.012 billion are the result of hurricanes agricultural sector is responsible for 10% to 60% of countries’ and storms in the Caribbean, US$17.64 billion in Central

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XIII Summary for Policymakers

America, and US$3.754 billion in Mexico. Damages from stability (e.g. savannas, oak or pine forests in certain areas the El Niño totaled US$42.471 billion in South America of RIOCC countries). and US$4.013 billion in Central America, and from La Niña In places where fire is not a natural part of the ecosystem’s US$5.478 billion in South America. For extreme precipita- disturbances, or where human activity produces changes to tion (floods and landslides), the cost of damages amounted its natural regime—making fires more frequent, extensive to US$10.974 billion. or severe—fire represents a disturbance that can produce In recent decades, floods have caused almost half of the serious impacts on ecosystems, altering their composition climate-related disasters around the world. Their relative and structure, the functions and services they provide or their importance has also increased during this period, either in capacity as a sink for greenhouse gases, as well as affecting terms of economic losses, reinsurance losses or the number goods, assets and human lives. of reported flood events. However, it is not yet clear why The current levels of fire incidence in Ibero-America are high these observed changes happen. Possible causes include to very high. Each year more than 40 million hectares are increases in the magnitude or frequency of extreme precipita- burned, representing 7%-14% of the area burned worldwide. tion. In the last two decades, 548 flood events were recorded The causes of fire ignition are mostly human, although light- in Latin America and the Caribbean, affecting a total of 41 ning is an important cause in certain areas. In terms of areas million people and causing US$26 billion worth of damage. burned each year, the most affected countries are Brazil and The most affected countries in recent times have been Brazil, Bolivia (4% of their territories), followed by Portugal (1.6%). Mexico, Colombia and Peru, with increases in maximum daily The estimate of the number of active fires based on satellite flows observed in the Rio de la Plata or Amazon basins. records taken in recent decades reveals that Guatemala, In recent decades, Mexico, Amazonia and northeast Brazil, Paraguay and Honduras lead in terms of the number of fires central and southern Chile, Patagonia and the Iberian Penin- per unit of surface area in the region. sula have experienced greater frequency of droughts. Con- versely, northern Argentina and Uruguay have experienced a drop in frequency. The meteorological droughts were more Other key areas and sectors severe in parts of Patagonia and southern Chile, northeastern Brazil, Nicaragua, Honduras, southern Mexico, Baja Cal- The RIOCC region is highly urbanized and it is expected that ifornia, and the Iberian Peninsula. Conversely, southeastern it will become more so. In 2050, about 90% of the population Brazil experienced less severe droughts. Between 2005 and will be urban in countries such as Mexico, Costa Rica, Argen- 2015, drought caused US$13 billion in damages to crops tina, Spain, and Brazil. Despite this, the weight of the rural and livestock in Latin America and the Caribbean. population will continue to be considerable in some countries, particularly in Central America and the Caribbean. The The Andes mountains and other mountain systems of Latin high degree of population living in large conurbations of more America are especially susceptible to the emergence of slope than 5 million inhabitants is also noteworthy to the point that instability processes or landslides, due to their geodynamic except in Central America and the Caribbean, about 20% of and climatic characteristics. Risks are due not only to excess the population of the remaining Latin American countries of rainfall but also to environmental deterioration, deforestation, the RIOCC region lives in them. basin degradation, and the increase of multiple physical and social vulnerability processes associated with human settle- Many major cities have experienced a disorderly growth in ments, which are also risk drivers. In recent decades, risks recent decades; this has been characterized by self-con- due to slope instability accounted for at least 12.6% of all struction, poor quality housing, deficient services, inse- disasters with more than 10 deaths. curity, a high degree of poverty and marginal livelihoods. There are around 124 million urban poor (living between Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation non-extreme and extreme poverty). The rural world is also are integral, inter-institutional, multi-sectoral and interdisci- characterized by a lack of services, low-tech agriculture in plinary processes. They generally result in public policies certain countries (Central America) or parts of certain coun- that have the same objectives. It is not appropriate to speak tries (Brazil), and high poverty, with an estimated 58 million of adaptation to slope instability or landslides generically rural poor, where indigenous populations experience the without referring to disaster risk management. Promoting risk most acute poverty. management is equivalent to promoting adaptation, although the risk of slope instability is not necessarily associated with The coast of RIOCC countries is more than 70,000 km long. climate change in all cases. It is an area where some of the most valuable and unique habitats on the planet are found and also where intensive Wildfires are present in a large part of the region’s terrestrial development, an important part of the economic activity of ecosystems and their impacts can be beneficial or adverse, many RIOCC countries, is located, along with high levels of depending on the type and regime of fires and the context poverty. in which they occur. Fire is a tool used in landscape management and many indigenous and rural communities depend on Based on population data from the year 2000, it is estimated it for their survival. Certain ecosystems require fire for their that between 29 and 32 million people live in the first 10

XIV RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

m of elevation on the coast of Latin America and the Carib- countries, because it has been found that this component bean, and more than 6 million in the 100-year return period has not yet been sufficiently considered or is still considered floodplain, not taking into account hurricanes. In Colombia, as a secondary issue in these assessments. Venezuela, Costa Rica, El Salvador and Panama, more than 30% of the total population lives in these first 10 m of elevation of the coast. Natural systems Population trends and projections of mean sea level rise Land use changes are predominant in the region. During the indicate that, by mid-century, and in the absence of adapta- first decade of this century, deforestation of humid and dry tion, 10 million people will be living in the coastal floodplain. forests, savannas and scrublands affected more than 0.54 The tourism industry of RIOCC countries is one of the most million km2, which were converted into crops or pasture. It is important economic sectors from an economic point of view. the world’s region with the highest rate of deforestation. At In 2019, the average contribution of this sector to the GDP the same time, abandonment has also occurred in dry or too was 11.7% in Ibero-American countries, where Portugal sttep slope areas for agriculture, affecting 0.36 million km2. (22.9%), Uruguay (18.5%) and Spain (16.2%) are the most noteworthy. Nature, Sun and the beach, cultural, sports and The combined effects of climate change and habitat loss ecological tourism are increasingly represented in the region. represent a great threat to the terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems of RIOCC countries. Projected climate chang- There are significant differences in the strength of the health es envisage a decline in productivity in the short term and systems and the level of poverty between RIOCC countries. degradation in the long term. Inadequate management and On the one hand, there are countries with better developed fragmentation diminish ecosystem functions, while making health systems and low levels of poverty (Spain, Portugal, them more vulnerable to climate change. Uruguay, Chile), and on the other hand, there are those where the health system is weak and poverty is high (a Ecosystems of the high mountains (e.g., paramos, puna) substantial part of Central American countries). Up to one are critical for water regulation in large areas and have third of the Latin American population have limited access to a high carbon absorption capacity. Their permanence is health services. Access is more deficient in rural and remote threatened by over-exploitation and climate change. Tropi- areas, which also have unsafe housing and less access to cal forests, notably Amazonia, are threatened by drought, drinking water. particularly under high emission scenarios as well as by fires that previously did not occur. Temperate forests are threatened by the loss of climatic niche, as well as by fire. D) Components of Climate Arid ecosystems face an increased risk of aridification (e.g. the Caatinga, Brazil) and livestock pressure, rendering them Change Risk and Impacts even more vulnerable. Freshwater ecosystems face changes in the flow regime, Society, governance and inequality which will modify their seasonality. This is due to the loss of glacial ice mass (Andes, Patagonia). Sediment in trop- The hazards of climate change through changes in both ical Amazon rivers, as well as downstream productivity in temperature and precipitation, particularly in terms of their floodplains, are expected to decrease. In temperate zones, extreme values, as well as through sea level rise, translate extreme droughts in response to climate change or more into negative impacts on livelihoods, into food insecurity and frequent El Niño events can cause major changes in the malnutrition, particularly in children, and into increases in aquatic communities. A rise in water temperature will also migration, morbidity and mortality. lead to changes in water quality (e.g., reduced oxygen dis- Impacts are generally more pronnounced in socio-politically solving capacity). marginalized populations, such as women, indigenous people Temperature is rising, as are sea levels, while the water is be- and those living in poverty. This is due to the fact that these coming more acidic. Consequently, the distribution of some groups often have many of their basic needs unmet, suffer species, their behavior and reproduction are changing. Ocean from energy poverty, lack the power to participate in any current patterns are also being disrupted. The outcome of decision-making, are physically and socially isolated, suffer these transformations affects coastal marine ecosystems, from discrimination and forced displacement, and have limit- significantly reducing their resilience and jeopardizing their ed access to education, natural resources and financial capi- ability to provide goods and services. This includes reduced tal. Women, moreover, are exposed to gender-based violence. economic benefits owing to the migration of capture species, Indigenous people are also vulnerable because of the denial reduced employment, loss of traditional knowledge of the of their rights and of their material and spiritual relationship coastal populations and reduced social cohesion of coastal with the environment. This differentiation needs to be includ- communities, which will ultimately lead to greater inequality ed in the vulnerability assessments conducted by RIOCC in the region.

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XV Summary for Policymakers

Coastal marine ecosystems of RIOCC countries are already those to central and southern Chile and Argentina have been being directly and indirectly impacted by human activities observed. These changes are mainly generated by a reduc- and by the effects of climate change. Shellfish farming, tion in precipitation and are accentuated by changes in the dam construction, large-scale salt mining and contaminat- cryosphere (glaciers and snow), generating disruptions in the ed effluent discharges into the sea, deforestation and land seasonality of flows, reducing flows in the dry season, and conversion for agriculture, among other stressors, intensify increasing them in the wet season. climate change-related impacts on the region’s coastal ma- A reduction in water resource availability is expected, with rine environments. a high level of consistency among models in some areas Climate change impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems of the region, such as Mexico, Central America and the of RIOCC countries are more apparent in a context of pre-ex- Caribbean, Northeast Brazil, the Central-Andean Pacific re- isting vulnerability. Vulnerability derives from the human ac- gion, Patagonia and the Iberian Peninsula. The increase in tivities that take place around coastal marine ecosystems temperature accelerates the melting of snow and glaciers, (tourism, unplanned urban expansion, pollution from land- altering the seasonality and quantity of flows. Extreme based sources and the aquaculture boom). These represent events and changes in water quality are also a hazard. a threat to fish, coral and mangrove populations. Some of Rainfall increases are also expected in the tropical countries these impacts have already been observed in the region, of the Pacific (Peru, Ecuador, Colombia), as well as in the such as coral bleaching in the Caribbean as a result of rising Río de la Plata basin. temperatures and loss of mangrove cover. In the agriculture sector, the main climate hazards are re- Sea surface temperatures is expected to continue to rise, lated to the increase in thermal and water stress of crops along with sea heat waves, water acidification, sea level and and livestock, with crop and livestock losses due to erosion, hypoxic areas. This will cause the displacement of marine droughts and floods, and an increased spread of pests and species to more northern latitudes, along with the local ex- diseases. However, in some regions, new opportunities have tinction of species in the tropics and enclosed seas and coral also emerged due to increased precipitation (southeastern bleaching, which coupled with rising sea level will place them South America), or due to the possibility of exploiting new at high risk. Ocean net productivity will be redistributed, with varieties (megathermal or tropical species) in areas where, a tendency to decrease the higher the greenhouse gas emis- until now, their cultivation had not been commonplace. sions. This will lead to a reduction in the services provided The level of exposure to these climatic hazards varies greatly by the sea in terms of fish catches. depending on the socio-economic level of the affected pop- Despite considerable sub-regional variation, ecosystems ulation, the relative rigidity or flexibility of their productive (e.g., high altitude, coastal, freshwater, urban, the Amazon) systems to vary or adopt technology, and the possibility of and taxonomic and functional groups (corals, vertebrates, being assisted by such technology and its availability, among plants) vulnerable to climate change are present across the other aspects. Poor populations are most at risk, a situation region. Ecosystems with restricted geographic ranges and often exacerbated by a lack of land tenure, or by settling with high endemism are among the most vulnerable systems. on mountain slopes, flood plains or arid areas. More rural Biodiversity hotspots (i.e., areas with great species diversity countries (e.g. Central America, Central Andes) have fewer that show high habitat loss and high levels of species en- options than more technologically advanced countries (e.g. demism), eight in total in the region, are among the most Argentina, parts of Brazil, Spain). vulnerable places in the world. The Mediterranean basin, the Potential threats to fisheries and aquaculture are: (i) changes Caribbean Islands, the Brazilian Cerrado, and the Tropical in sea temperature at the local level; (ii) ocean acidification; (iii) Andes are among the most vulnerable hotspots in the world. sea level rise; (iv) changes in oxygen concentration in aquatic Climate change directly impacts biodiversity by causing dis- systems; (v) increase in storm intensity and frequency; (vi) tribution shifts or by triggering extinction processes. Among changes to the circulation patterns of marine currents; (vii) taxonomic groups, amphibians and reptiles are already in changes in rainfall patterns; (viii) changes in river flows; (ix) decline, and face greater extinction under different sce- changes in biogeochemical (nitrogen) flows; and (x) increased narios by 2100. Among plants, tall trees are particularly frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events. vulnerable, as well as high altitude species. Under high In Atlantic Iberian waters, changes in species composition emission scenario, more than 25% of the species in Latin and distribution are translating into important changes in America face extinction risk by 2100. Risks are high also fisheries, which will have an effect on fishing communities for species in the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic islands and consumers. Mussel production faces a high risk of loss (Canary, Azores, Madeira). of productivity due to, among other things, increased out- crops of toxic algae and the acidification of seawater. Managed systems Overfishing, pollution, the introduction of exotic species and the misuse of water bodies in the region, especially in Latin As for water resources, reductions in the flows of certain America, are non-climatic stress drivers that exacerbate the rivers in the Iberian Peninsula, Colombia, Mexico, Central impacts of climate change.

XVI RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

Climate disaster risks In terms of landslides, the increase in precipitation intensity and frequency due to global warming is a driver that ampli- The increase in air and sea temperatures is contributing to fies the slope instability hazard and, therefore, the risk to the intensification of major category hurricanes and an in- exposed elements. However, the hazard increase is also due crease in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme to environmental deterioration and human action, therefore storms, with numerous electrical discharges. Sea level rise this hazard is considered to be a socio-natural one. The risk is contributing––and will increasingly continue to contribute increase is also due to increased vulnerability resulting from in the short- and medium-term––to the destruction of coastal social processes and inappropriate occupation of land; in infrastructure, to the reduction of mangroves on the Caribbe- other words, this type of risk is not only due to climate vari- an, Central American and Mexican coasts, both Atlantic and ability and change. Pacific, and to the salinization of coastal aquifers. Ocean In terms of wildfires, a reduction in fire activity has been acidification will also contribute to the destruction of coral observed globally in recent decades, as well as in some reefs. All of this will increase the socio-ecological vulnerabil- countries (e.g. Spain), despite an increase in weather haz- ity to hurricanes. ards and, in some areas, vegetation cover. Nevertheless, in The impacts of hurricanes are multiple, among them: loss of several natural, rural or rural-urban interface regions of RIOCC human lives, increase in the number of refugees, destruction countries, wildfires have increased in number, duration, ex- of infrastructures, loss of essential services (light, water, tent and severity, and the fire season is becoming longer. communications), water pollution, increase in diseases (e.g. Ecosystems that are vulnerable to fire, such as tropical, sub- gastrointestinal infections), loss of crops and domestic ani- tropical, high Andean and Andean-Patagonian rainforests and mals, among others. tropical and Mediterranean forest plantations have increased The total costs of the impacts of climate change in the face their exposure to fire in Ibero-America. Fire-prone ecosys- of a 2.5°C increase in Latin America and the Caribbean could tems, such as tropical savannas and pine and oak forests amount to between 1.5% and 4.3% of the GDP, while costs of in the Americas, or Mediterranean pine and shrub forests in adaptation would not exceed 0.5% of the regional GDP. In the Spain and Portugal, have also increased their exposure. The Iberian Peninsula, an increase in storms on the west coast abandonment of rural areas and traditional fire practices by and episodes of “cold drop” are expected, as well as more indigenous or rural communities, fire exclusion, plantations humid winds and a warmer Mediterranean, leading to torren- and the introduction of highly flammable invasive species or tial rains on the Mediterranean coast and Balearic Islands intense and prolonged droughts are resulting in particularly and the so-called “medicanes” (Mediterranean hurricanes). devastating fires (megafires) (e.g. Chile and Portugal, 2017; This singles out the need to implement adaptation plans Amazonia 2010, 2015, 2016, 2019). that should be coordinated with the priorities of the Sendai The components of society most at risk from fires are the Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and with poorest sectors, such as indigenous and rural communities achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. in Latin America, the populations of urban-rural interfaces As for droughts and floods, the available climate scenari- and forest firefighters of the entire region. Children, the el- os for the foreseeable future indicate that changes in the derly and pregnant women are the most vulnerable due to air different components of the water cycle will continue to af- pollution resulting from the emission of gases and particles fect RIOCC countries unevenly. Increases in peak flows are produced by the combustion of biomass from the fire, even projected for the rivers of Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, in urban and rural sectors located far from fire sites. the coastal region of northern Peru, the Plata basin, Central Globally, climate change is expected to further increase the America and the Iberian Peninsula (except the Mediterranean danger of fire-inducing weather, the higher the level of emis- coast) and increases in the occurrence of droughts in Am- sions. The areas of greatest fire danger within the region will azonia, northeast Brazil, the Mediterranean region, Central be the Iberian Peninsula, Mexico, Amazonia and central Chile. America and Mexico. Projections claim that the fire season will be more prolonged The countries with the largest populations exposed to floods and the number of extreme hazard days will increase. The recently have been Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and effectiveness of such an increase will be greater in produc- Colombia. The Latin American countries with the largest pop- tive areas where wildfires have been limited by unfavourable ulations exposed to drought have been Guatemala, Chile, weather conditions unfavorable to fire spread. Ecuador, Mexico and Nicaragua. Population growth, rapid urbanization of informal human Other key areas and sectors settlements, lack of well-planned and quality infrastructure, high rates of social inequality and poverty, agriculturally de- The degree to which climate change impacts are felt varies pendent economies and inadequate environmental practices between rural and urban settlements, and between cities with are all socio-economic factors that enhance vulnerability and different urban sprawl patterns. Moreover, the vulnerability result in water deficit and excess events that have an even and potential risks associated with climate change are not greater impact. only a function of the typology and intensity of potential haz-

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XVII Summary for Policymakers

ards, but also of the social, economic, political, and cultural waves, intense rains or lack of rain in the form of snow or characteristics of each place, explaining why there is no one water (drought). These changes can manifest themselves in single solution but only common challenges. alterations to habitats and changes in species, as well as in diseases. Each of these hazards and changes can affect The biophysical characteristics of each region and location different types of tourism in different ways. determine to a great extent the hazards to populations, their temporal scale of formation (fast or slow), and potential Changes in the weather conditions at touric destinations are impacts (e.g. constructions on unstable slopes or in flood important, but so are those that occur at the origin, thus mak- zones). Population dynamics, land uses and the character- ing the end result depend on the interaction between both istics of the built space that derive from ongoing socio-eco- places. For example, improvements in weather conditions nomic, political, institutional, technological and cultural con- during the summer in the places of origin could showcase ditions, unevenly exacerbate vulnerabilities. and place value on its own resources versus those of the destination. Thus, Sun and beach tourism can use local re- The human settlements that will experience greater vulner- sources and decrease the flows to the traditional destination, ability are those of rapid growth, little planning and, above which could suffer from a worsening climate. Consequently, all, those that are more informal or located in risk-prone in order to understand the impacts of climate change on areas lacking infrastructure, services or appropriate adap- tourism, it is necessary to know how these will occur jointly tive action. In the short term, floods, landslides, coastal in the origin and destination. erosion and heat waves are the main hazards at the local level. In the long term, sea level rise, water shortages and Some of the major tourist destinations in Latin America are the potential spread of infectious vectors can be added to located in highly exposed areas. This is the case in the Carib- the above. bean and the Pacific coast, which are affected by hurricanes that cause enormous losses to the sector, especially when The risks of climate change to coastal systems in RIOCC these reach high intensities, as is expected to occur with countries are determined by the increase in three climate-re- climate change. Rising mean sea levels affect the stability lated drivers: mean sea level, sea surface temperature and of beaches and threaten coastal assets and ecosystems, acidification. Existing observations of these drivers show high undermining the very resource of tourism. Some snow des- geographical variability in the region. Future projections in- tinations are threatened by the lack of resources, due to a dicate consistent increases for higher representative con- decrease in rainfall. Excess heat in the summer can reduce centration pathways of greenhouse gases and more distant climate comfort, diminishing outdoor activities. time horizons. Vulnerability varies according to the type of tourism. While Flooding and erosion induced by extreme weather-based Sun and beach and city tourism are based on a well-devel- wave and storm surge events are the prevailing climate-based oped hotel sector, environmental tourism in a broad sense impacts on socioeconomic systems located on the coast. is more based on community systems, with more informal These impacts are exacerbated by anthropogenic action. Due jobs and a population of fewer resources, whose lives depend to the mean sea level rise, these extreme events will become largely on this resource. Climate change also threatens the more frequent and as such the associated impacts will con- sector specifically, as it can directly affect the resource, for tinue to increase in the future. example, through the loss of an emblematic species that Sea level rise, changes in precipitation regimes and alter- migrates elsewhere. This makes this type of tourism and the ations in the marine climate are responsible for the shifts in population that depends on it particularly vulnerable. the hydro-sedimentary and nutrient balances that increase The most significant hazards to human health from climate the salinization of coastal aquifers and affect coastal mor- change are rising temperatures, heat waves, lack of wa- phology. As a result of these processes, a decrease in fresh- ter quantity (drought) and quality, floods and air pollution. water availability and changes in or loss of coastal ecosys- Some of these hazards exert their effects directly (extreme tems are expected. heat) and others indirectly, for example through changes Rising sea surface temperatures, changes in hydro-sedimen- in disease vector distribution, water pollution or food in- tary regimes, variations in water quality and acidification are security. processes that alter the types, extent and health of coastal From a health viewpoint, populations living in conditions of ecosystems. While in many areas the dominant impacts will poverty and with deficient infrastructure (deficient housing, originate from temperature increases, the combined action sanitation, health system); indigenous populations (who on of these drivers is the main risk inducer on coral reefs, dune account of their poverty situation and marginalization often vegetation, mangroves and seagrass beds. Mortality in some have very limited access to primary health services); and, coastal ecosystems will also rise due to the increase in ex- in connection with the effects of heat waves, the elderly, treme events. children, and people with pre-existing cardiovascular diseas- Among the main climate change hazards that can affect es, are more vulnerable to climate change. Urban areas can the tourism sector are rises in temperature, the mean sea augment the impacts of heat waves through the urban heat level, or extreme weather or climate events, such as heat island effect.

XVIII RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

caused by an increase in the average and minimum daily E) Main Climate Change Risks temperatures (less night cooling) and heat waves; 2) risk of yield losses of crops and livestock on account of water stress Below is a list of the main risks identified for each sector in crops and thirst in livestock due to the decrease in rainfall or system analyzed. Figure 5 shows a selection of some of or the increase in continuous days without rain, coupled with these risks, the climatic drivers that determine them, their competition with other water uses which can create restric- importance, urgency and the areas most affected (for further tions on the availability of water for irrigation and animals; details see the risk table in each chapter). 3) risk of crop losses due to an increased incidence of pest outbreaks and diseases as a result of climate tropicalization; and 4) risk of crop displacement and replacement with others Society, governance and inequality due to loss of climatic conditions. The main risks in the field of society, governance, inequity The main risks to the fishing sector are: 1) risk of change in and adaptation are: 1) risk of food insecurity and malnutri- species composition in marine fishing grounds as a result tion of the population, especially of girls and women, due to of changes in temperature and the consequent effect on the an adverse climate; 2) risk of loss of livelihoods and other type of catches; 2) the risk of loss of fishing potential as a economic losses due to extreme weather events, such as result of the decrease in productivity due to physiological floods; and 3) risk of migration from rural to urban areas, changes in species; 3) risk of an increase of hypoxic areas due to the loss of livelihoods. due to thermal stratification and eutrophication; 4) risk of coral bleaching and lack of calcification in other species as a consequence of ocean acidification; and 5) risk of increased Natural systems mass mortality of plants and animals due to extreme temperature events. The main risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems include: 1) risk of loss of primary productivity in natural and managed systems due to an increase in the frequency and intensity of ex- Climate disaster risks treme weather or climatic events, as well as the loss of species’ climatic niche conditions; 2) risk of habitat loss in ecosystems The main risks related to hurricanes and storms include: 1) and displacement of their borders between adjacent systems; risk of loss of human life caused by wind, tidal waves and and 3) risk of instability due to the loss of species and changes their effects, as well as by floods; 2) risk of loss of infra- in the disturbance regimes, particularly by fire. structure, goods, equipment, crops, livestock and services The main risks to coastal marine ecosystems include: 1) risk essential for life; 3) risk of morbidity and mortality due to of loss of local biodiversity due to the migration of species increased diseases as a result of floods and water pollution; that lose their ecological niche; 2) risk of loss of critical eco- and 4) risk of social unrest. systems, such as coral reefs, sea grasses or macro-algae The main risks related to floods and droughts are: 1) risk of forests as a result of increases in temperature, acidification loss of human life caused by floods; 2) risk of loss of infra- and sea level; and 3) risk of loss of primary productivity due structure, goods and services due to floods; 3) risk of loss mainly to temperature rise. of crops and livestock due to droughts; and 4) risk of food The main risks to biodiversity and ecosystems in Ibero-Amer- insecurity due to droughts. ican countries include: 1) risk of biome shifts and species The main risks related to slope instability or landslides are: displacements; 2) risk of species extinctions; and 3) risk 1) risk of loss of life and economic damage due to the de- of alterations in ecological processes rates. Such risks are struction of housing and other exposed buildings, mainly in present all across the region, be it in terrestrial, freshwater precarious and marginal human settlements in large and or marine ecosystems, and impose consequent direct and intermediate cities located on slopes; 2) risk of loss of life indirect risks to human livelihoods and wellbeing. and economic damage and destruction of exposed infrastruc- The main risks to water resources are: 1) risk of reduction ture and public water and sewage service networks in human of water resources in subtropical areas of North and South settlements of different scales in cities and small towns in America, the Iberian Peninsula, and the northeast of Brazil; mountainous areas; 3) risk of damage to and destruction of 2) risk of changes in seasonality, particularly in rivers de- exposed transport infrastructure and networks, roads, rail- pendent on high-mountain ice; and 3) risk of a decrease in ways, viaducts, polyducts, power towers, in mountainous water quality due to extreme rain fall events. areas; 4) risk of deterioration of watersheds due to erosion and uncontrolled geodynamic processes in rural areas, loss of soil, impacts on ecosystems, crops and other livelihoods; Managed systems and 5) risk of loss of life and economic damage and destruction of housing and other exposed buildings in small urban The main risks to the agricultural sector include: 1) risk of centers and human settlements in rural areas in mountain- yield losses of crops and livestock due to thermal stress ous areas.

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XIX Summary for Policymakers

Extension Main risks identiﬁ ed Main climatic driver Urgency (most aff ected regions)

Losses of human lives and increases in climatic + refugees

Economic damages, destruction of homes and + infrastructure and losses of human lives due to

landslides

+ Flooding in poorly planned urban settlements

+ Increased incidence of vector-borne diseases

Thermal stress of crops and livestock !

Decrease in ﬁ sh catches due to changes in marine ! productivity

Malnutrition of the population, particularly in women + and girls

Losses in ecosystem primary productivity !

Changes in biodiversity due to the displacement of species

Figure 5. Selection and characterization of some of the risks identified for the different systems and sectors analyzed. (Continue in the next page).

XX RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

Extension Main risks identiﬁ ed Main climatic driver Urgency (most aff ected regions)

Changes in ecosystem composition, structure, and function due to increased frequency or intensity of !

forest ﬁ res

Loss of nature-based tourism due to the degradation + of the ecosystems that sustain it

Main climatic drivers: Urgency; one of the following Extent: Flooding three levels was assigned: Mexico Central America IBE imminent (that may be and Caribbean Temperature Rise Iberian Peninsula Drought occurring or occur at any time), MEX + CAC Amazon Precipitation Increase Sea Level Rise medium-term (that is expected to occur in the medium term, by AMZ mid-century, or when 1.5°C is NEB Precipitation Decrease Northern N.E. Brazil Ocean acidifi cation exceeded), Andean-Pacifi c NAP Central CAP SSA Southeast America ! Extreme Temperatures Changes in seasonality long-term (that is expected to Andean-Pacifi c occur after mid-century or when PAT Intense Storms and CO2 2°C of warming is exceeded). Patagonia CO fertilization Hurricanes 2

Figura 5. Selection and characterization of some of the risks identified for the different systems and sectors analyzed. Source: compiled by the authors. (Continues).

The main risks arising from an increase in the frequency with deficient planning and high urban demand, such as cer- or intensity of wildfires are: 1) risk of ecosystem insta- tain beach tourism areas. bility, including the appearance of critical points (leading The main risks of climate change to coastal areas are: 1) risk to non-recovery of the ecosystem); 2) risk of loss of bio- of coastal flooding with the ensuing loss of life and property diversity, environmental functions and services (e.g., de- due to sea level rise, adverse weather in terms of storms creased capacity of vegetation and soil to store carbon); 3) and cyclones, and growing urbanization of the coastal area; risk of loss of forest products in forests and plantations; 2) risk of loss of infrastructure operativity due to contin- 4) risk of loss of the livelihoods of native populations in ued sea level rise and increased extreme events; 3) risk of traditionally fire-managed areas; 5) risk of morbidity and coastal erosion caused by sea level rise coupled with local mortality of people living in fire exposed areas, includ- changes in wind and current patterns; and 4) risk of loss of ing those living at a distance, as a result of exposure to ecosystem services due to the loss of mangrove, coral or smoke; and 6) risk of loss of property and assets in the dune systems, which are critical in reducing the impact of rural-urban interface. storms and cyclones. The main risks to tourism are: 1) risk of change in seasonal- Other key areas and sectors ity in mountain, country, lake, city and outdoor destinations due to rises in temperature and a decrease in the indexes The main risks related to rural and urban settlements are: 1) of climate comfort in the regular seasons; 2) risk of loss risk of urban flooding due to extreme precipitations combined of tourist resources and flows to the destination due to the with deficient drainage systems and inadequate planning; 2) deterioration of resources (erosion of beaches, loss of nat- risk of urban water stress due to deficient infrastructure and ural ecosystems, migration or extinction of species that are increased demand; 3) risk of morbidity and mortality as a emblematic for nature-based tourism, lack of snow); 3) risk result of heat waves favored by the thermal island effect of of loss of flows to the destination due to an increase in cities; and 4) risk of erosion and coastal invasion in cities extreme events (hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, floods);

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XXI Summary for Policymakers

4) risk of loss of flows due to deterioration in health and hy- and ecosystem services for the conservation, restoration and giene conditions on account of a lack of water resources or sustainable management of ecosystems. It also facilitates the outcrop of diseases; and 5) risk of loss of tourist flows an integrated approach with actions at the key territorial due to favorable changes in climate conditions at the origin scale (basin level) to reduce the adverse effects of climate of tourist flows. change on the region’s terrestrial ecosystems. The main risks to health are: 1) risk of morbidity and mortal- F_032 Natural protected areas are fundamental to ensure ity in vulnerable people, such as children, the growing pop- the persistence of ecosystems to climate change. Adaptation ulation of the elderly, individuals with pre-existing diseases, measures for terrestrial ecosystems must include actions to low-income populations and outdoor workers, particularly in reduce other non-climatic stresses, thereby increasing their urban areas as a result of heat waves; 2) risk of morbidity resilience and maintaining connectivity between disrupted and mortality from vector-borne diseases due to the shifting areas. The national adaptation plans of several RIOCC coun- distribution of mosquito populations and resulting climate tries include adaptation measures and programs that ad- changes, affecting the bite and survival rate, shortening or dress the conservation and restoration of ecosystems, both lengthening the development time of the pathogens of ma- terrestrial and freshwater, including EbA measures. laria, dengue, zika, chikungunya, leishmaniasis and chagas, The effective implementation of adaptation strategies to among others; 3) risk of morbidity and mortality from air pol- counteract climate change impacts on ecosystems requires a lution caused by combustion products and their transformed clear understanding of how climate change will influence the elements (urban areas), including smoke from wildfires (ur- future functioning and distribution of ecosystems. The loss ban or rural environments); 4) risk of morbidity and mortality of connectivity between fragments of native ecosystems, from increased infectious diseases (cholera, typhoid fever, the introduction of invasive species, coupled with strong cli- shigellosis, hepatitis, diarrhea, giardiasis, salmonella, cam- mate variability, threatens ecosystem functions and their pylobacter, etc.) due to contaminated food or water. biodiversity. The current spiral of environmental degradation is progressively depleting ecosystem services and reducing their capacity to adapt to climate change. F) Adaptation Options and Several Ibero-American countries have examples of climate Actions change adaptation strategies that include management tools and measures for recovering freshwater ecosystems, such as rivers and wetlands, and managing forest recovery. There Society, governance and inequality are cases of successful basin conservation programs that include actions on native vegetation, agro-ecological manage- More than adaptive, the response to climate change, partic- ment of crops, rivers and wetlands, and mechanisms for local ularly in the face of severe risks, must be transformational. community participation. Other actions include reforestation This is because there are limits to adaptation. Transforma- in micro-basins and some actions of the Reducing Emissions tional adaptation is understood as any adaptation based on from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD/REDD+) profound changes to social structures. Incremental adapta- program, although aimed at mitigation, involve adaptation tion and transformational adaptation do not compete with measures. one another, rather they complement each other, as each is needed according to the magnitude of the impacts. The sustainable and integrated management of coastal environments constitutes one of the pillars of ecosys- Autonomous adaptation emerges mainly at the local level tem-based adaptation that enables enhancing their func- and oftentimes is the result of the need to respond to ad- tions and ecosystem services. Ecosystem-based adaptation versities in the face of weak or inexistent state institutional is a common practice in marine and coastal areas and is frameworks. Against the backdrop of insecurity, populations important for the management of mangroves, seagrass are forced to act to reduce the impacts of climate change. beds, coral reefs and sandy beaches. These ecosystems Some of the practices carried out are diversification of liveli- have the natural capacity to regulate or mitigate the im- hoods; greater efficiency in water use; crop substitution; use pacts of, for example, storms and floods, or the effect of of drought-resistant seeds; and support for mother-headed rising sea levels. The sustainable management of coastal households, among others. Changing social roles can also environments (for example, fishing and aquaculture) con- generate conflict, therefore governance needs to be rein- tributes with ecosystem-based adaptation by maintaining forced. ecosystemic functions and services. Marine protected areas are one of the main mechanisms Natural systems for the adaptation of marine and coastal ecosystems. In protected conservation regions, the recovery of species, pop- Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) has proved to be an effec- ulations and ecosystem functions has been achieved thanks tive strategy to cope with the impacts of climate change on to the regulated use of marine and coastal organisms. RIOCC terrestrial ecosystems. EbA combines the use of biodiversity countries have a significant proportion of coastal marine eco-

XXII RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

systems under some form of legal protection, although in Planned adaptation actions for the fishing and aquaculture some cases this protection is not put into practice. In any sector, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean, are case, this is a good practice to increase adaptation in these scarce, and mostly autonomous adaptation actions have ecosystems. been recorded. There is a wide portfolio of public policies on climate change, both as regards adaptation and mitigation, Adaptation options in coastal marine ecosystems include in RIOCC countries. However, despite governments’ efforts, the restoration of key ecosystems and the re-establishment their practical implementation in the fisheries sector is in- of species and populations in order to increase the resil- cipient. ience of these ecosystems, following an ecosystem-based adaptation. Several RIOCC countries have projects focused Adaptive capacity in the fisheries sector is limited by certain on restoring altered ecosystems, so that they contribute to anthropogenic stress factors related to the globalization of climate change adaptation and mitigation. There are also fisheries and, in the case of RIOCC developing countries, to sustainable fisheries and aquaculture projects in place that the lack of public infrastructures, the high incidence of dis- could lead to the recovery of ecosystem services. eases, pollution, poverty, weak governance and overfishing. Accordingly, climate change adaptation strategies should em- Adaptation options for biodiversity include: 1) Nature-based phasize the need to eradicate poverty and food insecurity in solutions: the use of natural elements to foster sustain- fishing communities. ability in urban and rural areas can help with adaptation to climate change. 2) Ecosystem-based adaptation: local The main options for adaptation in the fisheries and aquacul- initiatives in the region, both urban and rural, are ecosys- ture sector are the cultivation of species with greater thermal, tem-based adaptation initiatives, showcasing the value for saline and hypoxia tolerance; the formulation of new foods adaptation to climate change. 3) Ecosystem-based disas- for carnivorous species that do not use low value fish; cultiva- ter risk reduction: ecosystems (restoration of mangroves, tion of herbivorous species; adaptive and ecosystem-based hillsides, coastal vegetation, riverine vegetation, etc.) are management plans; spatial monitoring and evaluation of the being used across the region to reduce disaster risk caused state of marine resources and biodiversity; reduction of dis- by climate change. cards and incidental fishing; risk analysis in management plans; adaptation of port infrastructure; establishment of There is a range of policy options, innovations and tools insurance systems for extreme weather events; promotion across the region to address biodiversity risks and vulnerabil- of consumption of low commercial value fish species; use ities to climate change, and also to promote the use of biodi- of friendly fishing gear and equipment; protection of critical versity and ecosystems to foster societal adaptation. These or essential habitats such as mangroves and estuaries; im- include: 1) Development or implementation of tools regarding provement of governance systems (co-management); and monitoring of biodiversity to inform adaptation strategies, diversification of the livelihoods of fisheries-dependent pop- and also to define priorities for ecosystem-based adaptation ulations. policies. 2) Collaboration networks (scientific and policy networks) to address nature-based solutions to combat climate change. 3) Adaptation planning based on biodiversity and ecosystems has been incorporated to national and sub-na- Climate disaster risks tional adaptation plans. The adaptive capacity in the region in terms of storms and hurricanes is mostly low. This is due to the lack of robust early warning systems, an increase in population in areas Managed systems with urban sprawl in coastal and mountain areas, and deforestation. Other drivers include: marginality and poverty; in- The main adaptation tool for water resources in the majori- stitutional weakness and lack of coordination; precarious risk ty of RIOCC countries consists of the design of adaptation management; lack of preventive culture and poor preparation plans at the national, regional, and local scales that include in rescue tasks; scientific and technological backwardness in future climate scenarios and adaptation actions to cope with hydro-meteorological monitoring and forecasting tasks; lack possible impacts. These plans include both improving the of human and technological capacities and lack of a culture supply of water resources and improving management to of insurance against risks. make it more efficient and to promote a culture of sustainable water use. Adaptation plans in the RIOCC region show very different degrees of development and implementation. Some show Climate change adaptation actions in the agricultural sec- progress in their creation (though not necessarily in their im- tor include: preventive measures regarding soil erosion; cli- plementation), and many others exhibit major shortcomings mate-smart agriculture, which aims to improve yields while and considerable delays. reducing inputs and greenhouse gas emissions; climate early warning systems; changes to sowing areas in response to Hurricane and storm adaptation measures comprise actions changes in rainfall; change in crop varieties and transfer; of various types, i.e., based on ecosystems (green adapta- direct sowing or zero tillage for better soil conservation; im- tion), infrastructure (hard adaptation) or legislation and infor- provement of pasture varieties and livestock breeds. mation/training (soft adaptation). Main measures include:

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XXIII Summary for Policymakers

1) preserving and restoring coastal ecosystems (wetlands, populations, developing strategic infrastructure, as well as dunes, mangroves and coral reefs) to reduce the impact of production and conservation systems, and the sustainable cyclonic waves; 2) replenishing beaches and improving coast- use of ecosystems and their environmental services. al protection infrastructure; 3) raising the defenses of vulner- The effectiveness of slope instability risk management, or able buildings and constructions to reduce flood damage; of adapting to slope instability risks in a climate change con- 4) designing structures resistant to high winds and flying text, has a great deal to do with the use of correct information debris; 5) enacting policies that discourage development in and the ideal application of models that allow for a correct vulnerable areas; 6) preparing before the arrival of a storm by and appropriate diagnosis for decision making. The use of covering windows and cleaning properties of potential flying information that fails to bring about clear intervention actions debris; and 7) having an evacuation plan in place. leads to maladaptation. Proper hazard and risk assessment Improvements in risk management, both preventive and re- contributes to adequate land zoning, the relocation of ex- active, with decisive support for monitoring and forecasting posed human settlements, improvement of neighborhoods, are fundamental. These measures include implementing the design and construction of stability and erosion control early warning and risk management systems. These should works, the implementation of both structural and non-struc- include: 1) zoning exposed areas and their degree of suscep- tural prevention measures, and collective insurance and land- tibility and vulnerability; 2) development of communication slide warning systems, among others. programs, channels and strategies (pre- and post-events) Hazard intervention, vulnerability reduction and the increase through mass media, social networks, community cell phone in resilience are concurrently the objectives of slope instabil- networks and amateur radio; 3) social appropriation of evac- ity risk management and planned adaptation. However, there uation plans and climate refugee attention plans; 4) update are also examples of autonomous adaptation associated with local and regional risk management activities and maintain the way certain communities have implemented measures evacuation drills; 5) establish permanent hydrological and to avoid slope instability and put effective community-based atmospheric monitoring programs; 6) deploy weather radar warning systems into place in cases where the population networks for continuous monitoring of storms and hurricanes; has been appropriately involved. In the case of slope in- and 7) maintain a hydrometeorological forecasting program stability or landslides, the risk and risk management and for river floods, flood zones and landslides. adaptation actions are essentially local. Adaptation is highly cost-effective and capable of coping In different parts of the Andes and other mountainous loca- with the challenges of both climate variability and climate tions of the region, communities have developed stability change. For this reason, RIOCC countries should expedite and terracing techniques using stone and wood, and even relevant scientific research, allocate adequate budgets, and bamboo, materials that in some cases have been success- make the necessary institutional arrangements to implement ful, but which are also perishable, causing the subsequent adaptation tasks. inconveniences when they lose their capacity. Radio systems Improvements in training and prevention by halting deforesta- for communication between observation sites and exposed tion and valuing its services are other important adaptive populations have made it possible to implement simple warn- measures. Specifically, these measures include: 1) funding systems with sirens and even loudspeakers, which are ing scientific education and training at the graduate level activated by electrical contacts or wire breaks that act as in oceanography, atmospheric sciences, meteorology, cli- sensors. Risk management systems with a mainstream vi- matology and hydrology; 2) stopping deforestation, devel- sion, associated not only with emergency preparedness and oping reforestation and ecological restoration programs for response but also with land use planning, urban planning, forests and other biomes, mangroves and coral reefs; and and risk transfer, have proven to be effective in achieving 3) increasing access to payment for environmental services adaptation in cases of slope instability and landslides. as an economic instrument to stop deforestation and envi- There are numerous supranational initiatives, both in Latin ronmental degradation. America and the Caribbean and in the European Union for Despite considerable uncertainties about future changes with cooperation between different RIOCC countries or with third respect to the occurrence of droughts and floods, adaptation parties in wildfire risk management. At the European level, the European Commission’s European Forest Fire Information processes must be developed based on the best available System is noteworthy, storing statistics and providing regular scientific knowledge. Consequently, tools are required to hazard warnings. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the anticipate flood and drought events in the medium and long most noteworthy systems are the Latin American Network of term. Remote Sensing and Wildfires, in which nine RIOCC countries There is a variety of climate change adaptation measures of participate; the Mesoamerican Environmental Sustainability different scales in relation to droughts and floods that have Strategy (EMSA), in which all countries from Mexico to Co- already begun to be implemented in Ibero-America. These lombia, both inclusive, participate and whose objective is include improving the quality of forecasts, early warning to develop technical capacities and public policies in fire systems and climate information services, plans for reduc- management; and the International Cooperation Strategy in ing vulnerability and increasing the resilience of exposed Fire Management (Project TCP/RLA/3010/FAO, 2005) which

XXIV RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

established the Central American, South American and Carib- sistance to and relocation of vulnerable populations; epide- bean sub-regional networks for mutual assistance, with the miological surveillance; the inclusion of adaptation in land goal of strengthening the countries’ capacities for preventing, use planning and urban design; the inclusion of gender controlling and combatting wildfires. and priority groups in adaptive actions; the improvement and expansion of the rainwater drainage network and other At the national level, a minority of countries have established hydraulic infrastructure, including the harvesting of water firefighting plans, with basic infrastructure for collecting sta- or regenerated water. tistical data, fire hazard alerts and well-developed human and physical firefighting infrastructure. They have also developed Adaptation actions on an urban scale are limited and the their plans to combat climate change specifically including planning and implementation thereof are still underway or wildfires. In this regard, the plans of Spain, Portugal, Brazil, in the project phase, especially in medium or small settle- Chile and Mexico stand out. Other countries, such as Ecua- ments, where capacities and financing are limited. Adapta- dor, Colombia and Paraguay have advanced these firefight- tion actions are mostly soft, although some green and hard ing and climate change plans, in part due to responses to adaptation actions have also been implemented. The vast catastrophic events. Finally, the plans and infrastructures majority of actions are planned, although this may be due to of the remaining countries are less developed. In any case, the limited monitoring of autonomous measures at the local the implementation of adaptation plans, beyond their legal level. While planned adaptation at the local level has made development, is incipient. progress, a number of issues and challenges remain. These Despite costly investments in human resources and high include a lack of robust knowledge about unplanned adapta- technical deployment, firefighting and suppression policies tion experiences in cities and towns of the RIOCC region and, prevailing in the region have not been sufficiently effective. hence, about the best way to channel their interaction and Although exclusion and suppression can reduce the area coordination within planned adaptation actions. burned, as in the case of Spain, in extreme weather condi- There are plans and initiatives in place for adaptation in tions these policies are inefficient, especially in countries marine and coastal areas in all RIOCC countries, but with with limited resources, as is the case of most Latin Ameri- varying scales, scopes and levels of implementation. In can countries that have also large territories to manage. In general, adaptation to climate change in coastal areas has the face of more severe weather due to climate change, a been incorporated into national or local adaptation plans or review of current plans and changes to the fire paradigm are strategies or the adaptation component is part of coastal required. On the other hand, historical international coopera- management or risk management plans. Only Spain has a tion efforts toward Latin America, mainly involving technology specific adaptation strategy. transfer and training of forest firefighters, are not necessarily adapted to local socio-environmental conditions, and may The predominant adaptation options for coastal areas in the even place the livelihoods of local communities at risk. region today are programmed. These include: social adaptation options, leading to the assessment of risks and vulner- Some countries, such as Brazil, have developed integrated abilities; institutional adaptation options, aimed at improving fire management plans at the local level that include the use their institutional capacity and governance; and informational of prescribed burning at the end of the rainy season, or at adaptation options, leading to the creation and management the beginning of the dry season, authorization of community of knowledge. Physical measures have also been put into burns, the incorporation of traditional indigenous knowledge, practice, based on engineering solutions (grey) that have and the creation of indigenous fire management brigades, been implemented in areas of high exposure and vulnerability among other activities. These plans effectively reduce the and based on ecosystems (green). hazard of fire-managed landscapes by avoiding the likelihood of large fires. Venezuela and Bolivia have also made signifi- While most Ibero-American countries have climate change cant progress in this regard. strategies or plans, in general, and except for a few countries, the tourism sector lacks specific plans. Adaptive measures planned for this sector are either being implemented Other key areas and sectors or in the definition phase in other sectoral programs that include tourism. As far as human settlements are concerned, many local gov- Some measures put into practice in the tourism sector with ernments have yet to implement adaptation actions from adaptive value include: strengthening of alternative tourism their respective administrations, restricting themselves at segments to traditional tourism (e.g. gastronomy, sports, cul- best to a reactive approach to potential disasters. In other ture, leisure, rural); development of other economic options cases, the actions are insufficient compared to the magni- for the population (agriculture, fishing); implementation of tude of the expected impacts. Additionally, on many occa- prevention and emergency plans, with early warning plans, sions, there is inadequate tracking of the actions carried out. mapping of risk and vulnerable areas, calendars for safe The most urgent measures in the field of urban and ru- outdoor recreational activities; ecological restoration plans, ral settlements are related to the implementation of early soil conservation, afforestation and reforestation; commu- warning systems, contingency plans, shelter networks, as- nity management of natural resources; green infrastructure

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XXV Summary for Policymakers

in hotels and beaches (shade trees, urban gardens, among actions, from the local to the national level, and the different others), creation of decision-making forums. types of adaptive actions (planned or autonomous, soft or hard, etc.). Some examples illustrating the diversity of the Adaptation options in the tourism sector should be designed selected case studies are listed in Figure 6. The main expe- to promote human development and poverty alleviation at riences of the different sectors and systems analyzed are the destinations to make communities more resilient, and to summarized below. increase disaster risk management and sustainable natural resource management, including the conservation of ecosystems and their species. Land use planning and the adoption of technological options for infrastructure construction, in- Society, governance and inequality cluding the use of ecosystem-based measures, should also Society, Governance, Inequality, and Adaptation 1) Index of be included as central processes. Usefulness of Practices for Adaptation (IUPA); 2) Impacts of Environmental labels and certificates are especially import- floods and droughts on the livelihoods of the Cocama (Peru); ant for nature-based destinations, such as “Ecolabel” or “Bio- and 3) Mainstreaming gender into climate change policies sphere Destination” for responsible tourism. These are being in Mexico. incorporated as effective tools in environmental protection decision-making and for combatting climate change. In the field of health, heat wave adaptation measures should Natural systems be directed at protecting vulnerable individuals through early Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems: 1) Floodplain resto- warning systems that provide information at the population ration in the Órbigo River (Spain); and 2) Participatory scenar- level and raise awareness regarding protective measures at ios for sustainable forest management in Mexico. the individual and family levels, along with health services that are prepared to identify and care for people requiring Coastal and Marine Ecosystems: 1) Increased coastal resil- emergency services. ience based on native vegetation in Uruguay; and 2) Communi- ty-based mangrove restoration in Baja California, Mexico. Measures to adapt to disease transmission include risk communication to avoid the presence of mosquitoes at the Biodiversity: 1) Greening the cities: evaluation of urban for- domestic level, as well as mosquito bite protection; entomo- est services in Barcelona; 2) Monitoring ecosystem senti- logical surveillance must also be maintained to detect vector nels: Andean wetlands monitoring in Bolivia; 3) Use of Aga- dynamics. In cases of epidemic outbreaks pesticides will ve spp. in Mexico: resilience and uncertainties; 4) Adaptive have to be sprayed. potential of the biodiversity conservation system in Cuba; Air pollution-related risk communication is a tool to protect the 5) Defining priority municipalities for ecosystem-based ad- health of vulnerable populations, such as people with chronic aptation in Brazil; 6) Integrating conservation and human respiratory problems and those suffering from allergies. wellbeing to mitigate and adapt to climate change: the case of Cape Horn Biosphere Reserve in Southern Chile, and Food insecurity must be approached by adopting improved 7) Filling the knowledge gaps: scientific collaboration among agricultural management practices; implementing agricultural Ibero-American countries. biodiversity, as a production strategy, which could support adaptation to environmental pressures such as salinization, droughts and floods; and instituting programs and policies Managed systems to promote sustainable agriculture and fisheries. In the area of health, early warning systems are an essential Water Resources: 1) Combination of decision support sys- part of climate change adaptation for populations exposed tems and participatory workshops for the design of adap- to extreme hydrometeorological events. Therefore, efforts tation measures in the Júcar River Basin District (Spain); must be expanded in connection with these systems in or- 2) Electricity for the use of groundwater in Mexico: opportuni- der to protect vulnerable populations in terms of managing ties and constraints for climate change adaptation response; integrated information systems and risk communication that 3) Panama’s National Plan for Water Security; 4) Photovoltaic provide prompt warnings and promote action; train and equip energy to abstract water for camelid watering holes in the personnel; and provide infrastructure for managing evacuees, Municipality of Turco, Bolivia; 5) Adaptation to climate vari- as well as medium-term care for displaced persons. ability and climate change through rainwater harvesting and storage at the Chortitzer Cooperative in the Central Chaco in Paraguay; 6) Changes to the operation of the Cantareira system to cope with water crises in the São Paulo metropolitan G) Examples of Useful region, Brazil; and 7) Development of infrastructure resilient to climate change impacts on the drinking water supply in Experiences for Adaptation the city of Santiago, Chile. The chapters of this report contain a series of case studies Agriculture Sector: 1) Comparative analysis of the conse- showing what can be done to implement various adaptive quences of the advance of the agricultural frontier in Argen-

XXVI RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

Case Study Name Countries Regions Main Climate Drivers Geographic Types of Applicability Scale adaptation

Creation of the National Center for Monitoring and Warning of + Brazil National National Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), Brazil

Comprehensive risk management + Municipal/ Colombia Municipal/local in Manizales, Colombia local

Risk in exchange for risk in La + Municipal/ Mexico Municipal/local Pintada, Guerrero, Mexico local

National Atlas of Vulnerability + to Climate Change (ANVCC) of Mexico National National

Mexico

ee farmers in Mexico and Peru to the appear- Mexico and + ance of stem rust associated with ! Local Subnational Peru climate change: Selection of stem ee plants

Selection of adapted banana germplasm in Northeast Argentina Local Subnational Argentina

Autonomous adaptation to climate variability of the fan-shell Peru Local National (Argopecten purpuratus) ﬁ shery in Peru

Risk scenario assessment and National, forest management following the Portugal ! Local subnational ﬁ res in Alvares (Portugal)

Integrated ﬁ re management ! Supranational, in indigenous lands in Brazil: Brazil Subnational national, The experience of the Prevfogo subnational Specialized Center

Mainstreaming the gender Supranational, perspective in climate change México National + national policies in Mexico !

Figure 6. Selection and description of some case studies on adaptive actions from among those presented throughout the chapters of the report. (Continue in the next page).

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XXVII Summary for Policymakers

Geographic Types of Case Study Name Countries Regions Main Climate Drivers Scale adaptation Applicability

Vector-borne diseases - Challenges and adaptation Bolivia Subnational Regional options in Bolivia focusing on the Chaco region

Argentina, Brazil, Strategies developed Chile, Colombia, Municipal/local, + as part of the 100 Ecuador, Spain, ! Municipal/ subnational, Resilient Cities Mexico, Panama, local national, Program Portugal, Dominican supranational. Republic, Uruguay

Órbigo river restoration, an + example of ecosystem based Spain Subnational Subnational

adaptation

Supranational, Deﬁ ning priority municipalities Brazil Múltiples National national, for conservation subnational

Nature tourism in the Galapagos Ecuador Local Subnational Islands, Ecuador

Main climatic drivers: Extent: Types of adaptation: Flooding Mexico Central America IBE planned, i.e. if it is the result of Temperature Rise and Caribbean deliberate political decisions; Drought Iberian Peninsula MEX autonomous, i.e. if it is carried out, + CAC Precipitation Increase Amazon usually by individuals, communities or Sea Level Rise private entities; AMZ NEB Precipitation Decrease Ocean acidifi cation Northern N.E. Brazil hard (requires changes in Andean-Pacifi c NAP infrastructure, regardless of type); ! Central SSA Southeast America soft (political, social, training actions, Extreme Temperatures Changes in seasonality Andean-Pacifi c CAP etc.);

Intense Storms and CO2 PAT CO fertilization Patagonia green (ecosystem-based actions). Hurricanes 2

Figura 6. Selection and description of some case studies on adaptive actions from among those presented throughout the chapters of the report. Source: compiled by the authors. (Continues).

tina and Brazil; 2) Selection of adapted banana germplasm Fishing sector: 1) Autonomous adaptation to climate variabili- in Northeast Argentina; 3) Adaptation of coffee farmers in ty related to the El Niño effect of fan shell extraction in Peru, Mexico and Peru to the appearance of rust associated with with movements to new areas and management of the banks climate change, by means of the selection of rust-tolerant by implementing marine farms or restocking areas; 2) Social coffee plants; 4) Change in sowing date to harness mois- adaptation of women in the Galician shellfish picking industry ture in Central Mexico; and 5) Control of degradation and (Spain), using control and self-management of catches, and desertification with agroforestry innovations in the Peruvian training programs; and 3) Autonomous adaptation by the Amazon. artisanal fishing community of El Ñuro (Piura, Peru) against

XXVIII RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

the reduction of catches of high commercial value species Coastal Areas: 1) Emerging and Sustainable Cities Program, due to climate variability and overfishing. Based on their aimed at implementing urban sustainability plans given the strong organization, the community developed tourism for exceptional rate of urban sprawl in the region, largely in the turtle watching, which has diversified occupation by reducing coastal area; 2) Mesoamerican Barrier Reef Insurance Policy fishing efforts and has led to improved economic income in in order to overcome the costs caused by hurricanes due the community. to the loss of benefits provided by these natural systems; 3) Spanish climate change adaptation strategy, the main instrument for coping with the impacts of climate change on Climate disaster risks the Spanish coast.

Storms and Hurricanes: 1) Creation of a National Atlas of Tourism: 1) Alternatives to snow tourism in reduced precipita- Vulnerability to Climate Change in Mexico; 2) Implementa- tion scenarios; and 2) Limits to nature tourism: the example tion of the Adaptation Fund in Colombia in response to the of the Galápagos Islands. impacts of the La Niña phenomenon 2010-11; 3) Creation Health: 1) Vector-borne diseases – challenges in assessing of the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of vulnerability to a changing climate in the Chaco region of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil, in response to the Bolivia; 2) Assessment of the Spanish Ministry of Health’s impacts of intense storms in the Rio de Janeiro region and plan of preventive actions against the effects of excess tem- throughout the country; and 4) Cuban system of protection perature on health; 3) Increasing resilience to floods through against hurricanes and tropical cyclones. training in Veracruz, Mexico; 4) Aeroallergen warning system Floods and Droughts: 1) Development of integrated climate in Madrid, Spain; and 5) Managing the risk of food insecurity change plans, such as that for the Department of Chocó due to drought in the Dry Corridor of Central America. (Colombia); 2) Changes in the hydroelectric operation of dams in the face of drought conditions, such as the case of the Sao Francisco River (Brazil); 3) Adaptation to floods and H) Barriers to and Opportunities droughts in a rural area subject to climate variability, such as northeast Argentina. for Adaptation Slope Instability: 1) Integrated risk management in Maniza- les, Colombia; 2) Urban planning in Vargas, Venezuela; 3) Society, governance and inequality Risk-for-risk exchange in La Pintada, Guerrero, Mexico; and 4) Catharsis and institutional strengthening in Rio de Janeiro, Knowledge of the impacts of climate change on social as- Brazil. pects is deficient. It is common in RIOCC countries for impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies to be imbalanced Wildfires: 1) Future risk assessment and landscape designs in favor of affording more value to biophysical, infrastructure that maximize forest exploitation while decreasing the hazard or ecosystemic aspects over social aspects. This represents in the central area of Portugal affected by the catastrophic a reductionism of reality that must be addressed. event of June 2017; 2) Review of public fire risk management as a result of catastrophic events in order to avoid similar The design and implementation of adaptation actions require events in the future; 3) Community-based fire management a differentiated treatment in terms of poverty, indigenous in the Chiquitano dry forest and the Bolivian Amazonia; 4) people and gender. Although planned adaptation has been Integrated fire management in indigenous lands in Brazil; expanding in RIOCC countries in recent years, especially at and 5) Integration of indigenous knowledge and scientific the national and sectoral levels, the inclusion of vulnerable and technical knowledge in the management of the Canaima groups remains weak and varies among countries. National Park in Venezuela. One of the main gaps identified in this report is the lack of information. It is therefore necessary to make progress in generating data, evaluations, studies and their respective Other key areas and sectors documentation and systematization, ensuring that these are of good quality, readily available and generated period- Urban and rural Settlements 1) Development of resilient city ically. There is a lack of indicators and indices to evaluate strategies, through the creation of municipal offices and the effectiveness of adaptation actions in relation to social specific urban resilience programs; 2) Neighborhood con- and governance aspects, which precludes the assessment tingency plan for response to flooding in an informal and of policy effectiveness and the prioritization of future ac- unregulated urban development context; 3) Institutionalized tions. flood risk management, by integrating various stakeholders at the local and basin level; 4) Enhancing water security in A crucial aspect of governance is the joint participation of poor urban areas without adequate water supply with the all climate change-related stakeholders, especially local gov- funding of rainwater harvesters promoted by the macro-city ernments, civil society organizations and local communities government; and 5) From autonomous to locally planned ad- and academia. Engagement of local communities is crucial aptation to reduce the risk of landslide disasters. because both vulnerability and adaptation depend on the

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XXIX Summary for Policymakers

context, and local communities are on the front line of re- and ecosystems for climate change adaptation, or difficulties ceiving and responding to impacts. Stronger support for local in the dialogue between science and policy are also a barrier communities is needed using governance systems where for adaptation. people have a greater say in decision making. Nature-based solutions, such as ecosystem-based adaptation and mitigation to climate change and ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction, emerge as good opportunities for Natural systems Ibero-American countries. Success is context-dependent and Among the impediments to making progress in the adap- can trigger sustainability transitions, particularly in devel- tation of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems to climate oping countries. For example, conservation and restoration change is the lack of long-term commitments and stable of natural ecosystems are prone to promote synergy be- financial resources in the face of governmental changes. tween mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development. Also, current knowledge about many of these ecosystems However, trade-offs have also been reported, for instance or of particular regions is heterogeneous. More scientific between carbon sequestration and biodiversity values, local knowledge is needed on this subject and on how to man- livelihoods and tenure security. age these ecosystems to favor their adaptation to climate change and to the multiple anthropic stresses to which they are subjected. Managed systems National adaptation plans have made progress in climate There are barriers, opportunities and challenges in achiev- change adaptation strategies, but still fail to reflect the em- ing adequate adaptation to the impacts of climate change bedded vulnerability of ecosystems and associated popula- on water resources. In many cases, a major barrier is the tions. Coordination of administrations and advances in the absence of information at the appropriate scale for designing use of adaptive management for ecosystem management is adaptation actions. Another barrier is misguided incentives still very insignificant. Climate change adaptation requires a regarding the water, energy and food nexus, which can lead comprehensive recognition of the environmental services— to maladaptation. The use of decision-making tools allows for including disaster risk reduction—that ecosystems provide an assessment of the benefits and costs associated with the to the array of productive activities. implementation of adaptation actions. Planning and collaboration at all scales (community, basin and country) is key to Deficient knowledge about the services provided by marine defining successful strategies. ecosystems is a barrier to adopting ambitious measures for their preservation and maintenance against a backdrop of One of the main barriers to adaptation in the agricultural growing hazards stemming from climate change. Competi- sector is the high proportion of poor populations, with low tion between actors over the use of marine ecosystems can education and capacity, who cannot promptly respond to only be resolved if the negative impacts of each action are climate impacts nor compete with corporate agriculture as adequately known in the short and medium term. they occupy land unsuitable for larger scale tillage. Marine protected areas have been created in all RIOCC There are opportunities in the agriculture sector thanks to countries, in some cases of a vast size. However with re- many adaptation measures that have clear co-benefits in spect to most of these areas, governance is extremely weak terms of climate change mitigation or prevention of land deg- or non-existent. Some countries have launched initiatives radation and desertification. This often happens because the to improve the governance of marine and coastal areas. measures that protect soils usually increase their carbon This is critical given the multiple interests converging in stores or decrease erosion rates. these areas. Other adaptation measures veer in a different direction and Lack of monitoring of the coastal marine system is also produce significant adverse effects. A clear example is the an impediment to being able to act accordingly before the change in land use due to the expansion of cultivation areas, impacts reach tipping points. A dense data network of dif- which generated loss of biodiversity and of carbon stores in ferent physical, chemical, biological and socio-economic pa- grasslands or forests, new pests and diseases –or resistance rameters needs to be developed in order to plan accordingly. to them–, and major hydrological imbalances. If due attention There is also a lack of experts and professionals, whose is not paid to these adverse effects, their negative impacts training should be a priority. may exceed any benefits being sought. In some cases, they could even cancel out those that had apparently already Lack of local capacity to design and implement ecosys- been achieved. tem-based adaptation practices and policies is a major barrier for adaptation. Additionally, policy remains being de- Native knowledge, in the form of traditions passed down from signed and implemented predominantly sectorally, and cli- generations, is being lost on account of migration and market mate change adaptation often requires policies that integrate integration, making populations more vulnerable to certain social, economic and ecological components. Moreover, the extreme weather or climate events. The loss of crop diversifi- absence of scientific information on the use of biodiversity cation practices used in certain areas of the Peruvian Andes

XXX RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

to suppress pest outbreaks and buffer the transmission of The national, subnational and local (urban and community) pathogens is an example of this. systems of integrated disaster risk management are, in the case of slope instability (landslides), an inter-institutional or Fishing and aquaculture, in most of the region’s countries, multi-sectoral figure that facilitates adaptation. have not received the same attention as other productive sectors. This is in spite of the fact that the effects of cli- Reducing wildfire risk requires a paradigm shift in national mate change on the sector’s productivity are already being fire management policies. So far, the dominant policy con- observed. Projections show a critical outlook for some coun- tinues to be firefighting and suppression. However, reducing tries, and a high risk for the communities that depend on the area burned as a result of extinguishing fires can be the sector. negative for certain ecosystems by allowing a build-up of fuels that will burn when weather conditions are particularly The greatest barriers to adaptation in fisheries and aquacul- adverse. In a context of increased meteorological hazard ture lie in: 1) lack of real political will; 2) lack of adequate due to climate change, a new fire management policy will economic, human and technological resources; 3) scarce require planning that considers and minimizes all implicit budget for relevant scientific research that can inform pol- human, ecological, and physical risks to fire, and not simply icies; 4) lack of information on costs and benefits; and 5) the affected area. institutional limitations. Developing a new vision and integrated fire management requires the coordination of all sectors involved and affected Climate disaster risks by fire, rather than just firefighting. It requires the inclusion of multiple perspectives, actors and the retrieval of knowledge The deforestation of river basins runs counter to the effec- and adaptive practices of indigenous cultures and commu- tiveness of adaptation plans in connection with storms and nities living in rural territories. It also requires cooperative hurricanes. Deforestation in RIOCC countries threatened by efforts between all levels of the state and sectors of civil these meteorological phenomena must necessarily stop. society that materialize into public policies consistent with Governance and institutions related to adaptation to storms a comprehensive and adaptive vision in the management of and hurricanes present stark weaknesses. Strengthening the territory, to build more resilient landscapes and commu- both requires performing and evaluating institutional chang- nities, while simultaneously encouraging a more informed es and deepening the participatory democracy that climate and trained population on the role of fire. action demands. Opportunities for adaptation in the field of storms and hur- Other key areas and sectors ricanes include the European Green Deal, the European Union’s Adaptation Strategy, its Climate-ADAPT platform, In urban or rural environments, the expected exacerbation and the existence of plans in all RIOCC countries. Similarly, of the impacts of climate change requires moving towards a adaptation plans for storms and hurricanes have co-benefits systemic transition based on increasingly rapid and effective in terms of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. action, leveraging existing positive synergies and co-benefits to the maximum. Such a transition will depend on the knowl- There are institutional, regulatory, administrative, economic edge available, on the interaction of science with the deci- and social obstacles that can delay the implementation of sion-making process, and on the concrete actions of social, some adaptation measures in connection with droughts and institutional and private stakeholders. floods. Consequently, to accelerate the adaptation process, countries will need to improve their planning and response The prevailing informality and inequality in many cities, the capacities, as well as their disaster management and insur- lack of local capacities, and the weak coordination between ance schemes. both governmental and non-governmental agents are aspects that often restrict the progress of the climate agenda, par- Other barriers are the limited knowledge about climate vari- ticularly that of adaptation. This is compounded by an insuf- ability and the uncertainties about the future climate con- ficient production of robust and consistent data and models cerning climate extremes that lead to floods or droughts. at a local scale, especially in the case of small settlements. On the other hand, awareness is insufficient, both among There is limited access to financing, loans and investment political actors and the general population, resulting in the for adaptation actions in the medium and long term. absence of regulations and often poor communication on adaptation needs. To ensure more successful pathways of the systemic transition to adaptation in urban and rural environments, not only A fragmented view of the problem of risk due to slope insta- is it desirable to remove the above constraints, but also to bility (landslides) is inconvenient and contributes to the lack balance and plan for synergies, co-benefits, and potential of effectiveness. trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation. This should Using the results of inappropriate hazard and risk assessment also be done with other actions that arise from the devel- models for slope instability (landslides) leads to maladaptation opment agenda, in general, and from those international or has failed to lead to clear intervention actions. agendas parallel to the climate agenda, specifically those

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XXXI Summary for Policymakers

involving resilience to disaster risk or sustainable develop- Adaptation in the health sector and mitigation must be in- ment, among others. terlinked. The reduction of greenhouse gases results in the reduction of air pollution, which brings health benefits. The The main barriers to the implementation of future climate enhancement of these co-benefits is an opportunity for im- adaptation processes in the coastal zones of Latin American plementing local policies to reduce emissions. countries are due to deficiencies in multiple areas such as social attitude and behavior, knowledge, education and human capital, financing, governance, institutions and policies along with low adaptive and developmental capacity. I) Future Needs to Advance Specifically, the following stand out as barriers to adaptation Adaptation in coastal areas: 1) insufficient financial resources; 2) limited human resources and lack of training; 3) lack of adequate policies; 4) insufficient public awareness of climate change Society, governance and inequality and disaster risk; 5) poor coordination and collaboration between the competent institutions (competence chaos); 6) Integrating scientific knowledge with local and ancestral knowl- difficulty in accessing and lack of availability of accurate, edge is imperative. This will allow for a better understanding of complete and accessible information. local realities in the different contexts that favor the best governance. The complexity and high levels of uncertainty associated In many Latin American countries, reformulating the current with climate change make it difficult for any actor to cope with tourism model is necessary in such a way that the opera- the impacts of this phenomenon on their own. tion and generation of infrastructure and investment are cli- Favoring the fight against climate change and mainstreaming mate-smart, i.e., that the capacities of the destinations and it more into public policies is central, as is also highlighting the resilience of the communities and ecosystems to climate the co-benefits between fighting climate change and devel- change are taken into account. It is also recommended to opment policies. This prioritization could be made, for exam- promote policies that generate financial incentives and in- ple, through a sustained allocation of human and economic clude insurance, catastrophe bonds, clean technology adop- resources. tion programs for tourism operations, and the sustainable use of water resources. An understanding of the risks to the tourism sector is very Natural systems limited. The scant attention paid to tourism in climate change impact studies and the limited presence of the tourism sector Monitoring and assessing adaptation measures implemented in the adaptation plans of a good part of RIOCC countries in connection with ecosystems is not yet widely developed. act as a barrier to the implementation of adaptive measures. Metrics to measure adaptation actions and drivers that can Added to the foregoing is a low perception of risk, as well as contribute to strengthening social and ecological resilience the perception of climate change on the tourism sector as a need to be developed in order to design lines of action that medium-term risk, with a high degree of uncertainty. can act synergistically. Lines of action that include mechanisms for social appropriation and the participation of differ- There is also scant integration of climate change adaptation ent actors, especially local actors, in adaptation programs into tourism sectoral legislation and policy (water resource could be less vulnerable to changes in governance, thus re- planning, coastal area planning, conservation and sustain- sulting in the continuity of the implemented actions. able use of biodiversity, health, etc.), as well as sparse con- sideration of tourism in supporting policies, standards, and Natural resources governance is strongly influenced by the regulations on specific climate change issues. fact that the economies of many RIOCC countries are dominated by exports of natural resource-based products (oil, min- Opportunities for the tourism sector include the conservation erals and agricultural resources). Although climate change and maintenance of some tourism resources most closely affects the entire population of Ibero-American countries, the linked to nature and their value for mitigation (maintenance consequences are more intense in those where the local and conservation of forests or seagrasses), biodiversity con- population’s dependence on natural resources is more direct servation (wetlands, numerous marine or terrestrial species and where the capacity to develop resilience strategies is targeted for ecotourism) and disaster risk reduction (man- lower. Without an adequate conservation strategy for native groves, coral reefs). ecosystems adapted to climate change, the maintenance of There is a lack of technical training and human and financial many ecosystem services is placed at risk and socio-ecolog- resources in various Ministries of Health for climate change ical vulnerability increases. adaptation. Taking into account this sector’s interaction with The development of further basic research is required to other sectors, there is a lack of relevant data to implement understand the current state of coastal marine ecosystems, integrated adaptation measures. There is also an absence of the ecosystemic services they provide, and their responses interdisciplinary and intersectoral work in the implementation to observed and projected future changes. This basic knowl- of adaptation measures in the field of health. edge is essential for defining local, national and regional

XXXII RIOCCADAPT REPORT Summary for Policymakers

adaptation actions. Basic and applied research in RIOCC Government and state administrations (at their different lev- countries, especially in Latin America and particularly in els: national, provincial and municipal) must establish active marine and coastal environments, require greater and im- policies that enhance local products, placing distinctive seals proved institutional, governmental and international support. on them such as “non-deforested places”, “low carbon prod- Training of professionals in different areas of basic, social, ucts”, etc. that allow for a greater connection between rural economic and legal sciences is needed to generate the nec- inhabitants and international niche markets. Cooperativism is essary knowledge for maintaining, protecting, conserving, an appropriate option to implement new production systems restoring, and monitoring marine and coastal ecosystems, that allow people to obtain some of these environmental their species and ecological functions. certificates. Capacity for design and implementation of ecosystem-based Adaptation efforts in the fisheries and aquaculture sector adaptation policies has to be built locally, which is where should be directed toward increasing the adaptive capacity adaptation often needs to take place. Designing and im- of the most vulnerable communities (whether due to lack of plementing integrated policies or policy mixes that combine resources, gender, or other factors) by strengthening gover- the economic, social and environmental components of ad- nance, knowledge development, and reducing poverty levels aptation are a major need to foster biodiversity adaptation and food insecurity. across the region. Synergies between mitigation, adaptation Local training on climate change risks through fishing and and sustainable development need to be jointly explored, as aquaculture pilot adaptation projects must be reinforced. Oth- often these three practices are treated separately by policy. er adaptation strategies of the fisheries sector may include promoting consumption of low commercial value fish species, such as anchovy and sardines, to combat food insecurity, Managed systems or maintaining a minimum biomass stock of forage fish and Several priority lines of action are required to improve the increasing the size of protected areas to allow for the recov- adaptive capacity of water resources, which take into account ery of top predators. future demands and changes that are expected in connection with the availability of these resources. There is a need to work on improving institutional designs that allow adaptation Climate disaster risks actions to be incorporated more easily, particularly those re- Among the most urgent needs in terms of storms and hur- lated to greater efficiency and less use of the resource. Sim- ricanes are: 1) funding scientific research in the relevant ilarly, better tools are needed to assess adaptation needs, sciences and educating and training high-level scientists and taking into account the prospects of expected climate change professionals (master’s degrees and doctorates); 2) covering in different timeframes that are consistent with the system’s the most densely populated areas with meteorological radars inelasticity to prevailing changes. and updating hydrometeorological monitoring networks, and In the agricultural sector it is necessary to strengthen the 3) designing and implementing comprehensive storm and R+D+i systems of the type of varieties of crops and livestock hurricane risk management programs. adapted to thermal and water stress and to new pests in Stop deforestation of river basins that are threatened by order to generate effective responses at the local or regional hurricanes and storms. To this end, there is an urgent need level. The use of local and traditional knowledge must be to economically quantify the value of the ecosystem services advocated, encouraging the reserves of local biodiversity that provided by natural forests, and to financially compensate many RIOCC countries have. communities for their preservation. Local early warning systems for farmers and stockbreeders Risk management plans need to link hydrometeorological regarding extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, monitoring and forecasting tasks to risk management author- hail, severe storms, early and late frosts) and biological ities, and link the latter to civil society, improving access to events (the outbreak of new pests and diseases) must be available information with detailed real-time data. Stakehold- enhanced, and access to the Internet must be made avail- ers must increase coordination between national, regional able for the population in rural areas located far from urban and municipal governments and civil society in prevention centers. activities, information dissemination, evacuation and mitiga- In areas of high vulnerability to extreme meteorological tion of the impacts of storms and hurricanes. events—such as on tropical mountain slopes prone to land- Vulnerability to droughts and floods differs greatly among slides from storms and hurricanes—policies must be com- different RIOCC countries due to contrasts in social and en- bined that prevent or minimize landslides either by building vironmental factors; however, it is essential that efforts to dams or by avoiding deforestation and the lack of vegetation reduce vulnerability be guided through collective action by cover on account of crops such as bananas. In many of these the Ibero-American community. areas, farmers must be given options for more secure and profitable livelihoods. Climate-smart agriculture may be a For adaptation strategies in the field of droughts and floods suitable option in many of these cases. to be really effective, it is essential to reduce the uncertain-

RIOCCADAPT REPORT XXXIII Summary for Policymakers

ties about foreseen changes. This is only possible if research A necessary first step is to identify those most exposed and on climate change and its impacts is prioritized and improve- vulnerable to diverse weather or climate events (e.g. heat ments in climate and hydrological monitoring and warning waves, floods, landslides, lack of water supply, etc.). Iden- systems are implemented. tifying environmental and human exposure and vulnerability with risk mapping is urgent. In terms of slope instability (although this issue could also apply to the remaining sectors), having risk management be In Central and South America and the Caribbean, a large considered, for all intents and purposes, as an adaptation part of funding for adaptation in coastal areas comes from and development strategy is a priority. Risk is a common de- multilateral agencies and international cooperation entities nominator of management from the perspective of different and is being implemented, in many cases, by NGOs. Great- approaches, disciplines and sectors, such as social and eco- er coordination would be desirable to reduce fragmentation, nomic development, infrastructure, environmental protection, avoid duplication and encourage a medium-term vision and zoning, sustainability, resilience, climate change adaptation prioritization of resources for adaptation on the coast. and risk management itself, among others. A fragmented The most common institutional barriers to adaptation in the view of the problem is inconvenient and contributes to inef- coastal areas in RIOCC countries are: conflict over areas of fectiveness. competence and jurisdiction and lack of information, frequent It would be desirable for disaster risk management to be changes to or absence of specific policies, and lack of re- increasingly promoted as a development, sustainability and sources and capacities to deal with the different phases of transformation strategy, so that in addition to being a strat- the adaptation cycle. egy for anticipating the climate change-associated risk, it Climate change adaptation in the tourism sector in general also contributes to the provision of ecosystem services and is not considered to be an individual sector; in the best of to increasing sustainability in the provision of resources for cases it is seen as an issue cutting across different sectors future generations. of the economy and society. In addition, local and national Few RIOCC countries have robust wildfire monitoring systems, stakeholders related to the tourism industry have not priori- much less systems that monitor fire-related impacts. It is vital tized climate change, which is reflected in the low adaptation to invest in environmental, social and economic monitoring, es- levels in Ibero-American countries. Climate change adapta- pecially in little-studied regions. Monitoring makes it possible tion in the tourism sector is essential to the social and eco- to prevent possible catastrophic effects and simultaneously nomic development of all countries. Promoting this agenda measure the effectiveness of actions implemented in terms and the specific agenda of tourism’s adaptation to climate of their ability to reduce risks and maximize the sink effect of change is critical. our forests and wild or managed ecosystems. The tourism industry’s knowledge of climate change risks must A new wildfire governance, based on adaptation actions, is be improved and economic studies on the value of the desti- urgently needed to avoid a “tipping point” for affected natural nation and the costs of adaptation and inaction must also be and rural areas in the region and to reduce economic and carried out. Progress must be made in adaptation within the human losses caused by catastrophic fires. energy-water binomial, as well as in conservation-mitigation. Al- ternatives to the high use of GHG emissions should be explored, increasing the efficiency of each unit emitted. Other key areas and sectors In the context of the fight against climate change, human To give way to a more robust climate governance in urban health should be considered a priority. In spite of the uncer- and rural settlements, encouraging engagement, alliances, tainties, there is sufficient evidence to justify strengthening cooperation and even the co-production of solutions by the the resilience of health systems to ensure that adaptation different stakeholders involved is imperative. The effective- and mitigation actions effectively protect health. ness of local adaptation will have to be measured in terms Identifying vulnerable populations and those exposed to cli- of the concrete betterment of the most vulnerable popula- mate change risks at the regional or local level is imperative. tions; therefore action will have to go beyond adjusting how Based on this information, geographic information systems response to climate impacts is managed in order to promote can be developed to identify, propose, and implement adap- deep structural or systemic changes that change the condi- tation measures that reduce the adverse effects of climate tions that engendered vulnerability in the first place. change on the health of these populations. In the field of urban and rural settlements, generating local Access to safe water and sanitation is a basic necessity. information in a robust and consistent manner, along with the Warning and surveillance systems that include climate-relat- co-production of knowledge and solutions, is also imperative. ed diseases also need to be strengthened.

XXXIV RIOCCADAPT REPORT