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An Econometric Analysis of Public Transportation in Montreal Vincent Chakour Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechani

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An Econometric Analysis of Public Transportation in Montreal Vincent Chakour Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechani An econometric analysis of public transportation in Montreal Vincent Chakour Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics McGill University, Montreal Submitted Electronically August 14, 2013 A thesis submitted to McGill University in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Civil Engineering © Vincent Chakour 2013 Acknowledgments I would first and foremost like to express my gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Naveen Eluru, whose inspiring guidance, supervision, and constant support throughout my Master’s program made the completion of this thesis possible. I would also like to thank Guillaume Barreau for modeling the transit trips to McGill in Google Maps, Alex Burkley for his help with land use variable generation, and the transportation team in the Department of Civil Engineering as well as the TRAM research group in the School of Urban Planning for their help and support. I would like to give a special thanks to Ahmed El-Geneidy from the School or Urban Planning, Daniel Bergeron from the Agence Métropolitaine de Transport (AMT), and Jocelyn Grondines from the Société de Transport de Montréal (STM) for providing the necessary data to carry out the studies. I would also like to acknowledge financial support from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada under the Discovery Grants program and from the McGill Sustainability Projects Fund. 1 Contributions of Authors Chapters 2, 3 and 4 of this report are based on three separate papers. The paper from Chapter 2 has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Public Transport on September 8th 2012 and presented at the Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting, whereas the paper from Chapter 3 has been presented at the Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting and submitted for publication in the journal of Transportation. The paper from Chapter 4 will be prepared in the summer of 2013 and will be submitted for publication in Journal of Transport Geography. The first paper, titled Travel mode choice and transit route choice behavior in Montreal: insights from McGill University members commute patterns is co-authored with my supervisor, Professor Naveen Eluru and Professor Ahmed El-Geneidy from the School of Urban Planning in McGill University. The second paper, titled Analyzing Commuter Train User Behavior: A Decision Framework for Access Mode and Station Choice and the third paper, titled An Examination of the Influence of Urban Form and Land Use on Bus Ridership, are also co-authored by my supervisor Professor Naveen Eluru. I have received supervision and guidance for all three papers by Professor Naveen Eluru. Specifically, he has provided me with the appropriate knowledge and modeling techniques to carry the studies. Finally, Professor Ahmed El-Geneidy has provided the data necessary to write the first paper, with the 2011 McGill Transportation Survey. 2 Abstract The last decade has seen a strong push towards improving the sustainability of transportation systems in urban regions. In this regard, a recurring issue is that of increased car dependence in major North American cities. Policy makers are challenged to find new and innovative solutions to counter the negative externalities of this personal vehicle dependence. For instance, the air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions resulting from private vehicular travel is of a particular concern for the health and safety of future generations. Moreover, the prevalence of sub-urban life in North American cities in the recent years has resulted in increased private vehicle usage while reducing public transportation systems usage. A well planned and efficient public transportation system can provide equitable service and accessibility to the population as well as contributing to the reduction of air pollution and GHG emissions. An effective solution lies in transit agencies and government implementing policies that maximize transit use and minimize car dependence. Not surprisingly, many urban regions are enhancing public transportation infrastructure to address the private vehicle use challenge. A number of research efforts have been focussing on understanding individual behavioral challenges in using transit while several other studies have examined the factors affecting transit operations. These studies provide important information to local agencies and transit agencies to enhance public transit services and operations. This thesis is a collection of three distinct studies, each relating to public transportation issues from different perspectives. The first study examines individual home to work/school commute patterns in Montreal, Canada with an emphasis on the transit mode of travel. The overarching theme of this research is to examine the effect of the performance of the public transportation system on commuter travel mode and transit route choice (for transit riders) in Montreal. We investigate two specific aspects of commute mode choice: (1) the factors that dissuade individuals from commuting by public transit and (2) the attributes that influence transit route choice decisions (for those individuals who commute by public transit). 3 The second study is an effort to develop a framework for a better understanding of commuter train users’ mode and station choice behavior. Typically, mode and station choice for commuter train users is modeled as a hierarchical choice with mode being considered as the first choice in the sequence. This research proposes a latent segmentation based approach to relax the hierarchy. In particular, this innovative approach simultaneously considers two segments of station and access mode choice behavior: Segment 1 - station first and mode second and Segment 2 – mode first and station second. The allocation to the two segments is achieved through a latent segmentation approach that determines the probability of assigning the individual to either of these segments as a function of socio- demographic variables, level of service (LOS) parameters, trip characteristics, land- use and built environment factors, and station characteristics. Finally, the third study draws attention to the spatial characteristics affecting transit ridership. An analysis of bus stop level boarding and alighting is undertaken by developing ordered response models of the bus stop specific boarding and alighting by time of day. The analysis quantifies the influence of various exogenous factors including public transit accessibility indices (number of bus/metro/train stops around each stop, length of bus/metro/train lines, length of exclusive bus lanes), infrastructure attributes (road length by functional classification, bike lane lengths, distance to central business district, CBD), and land use measures (number of parks and their areas, residential area, number of commerces and their area, government and institutional area, resource and industrial area, and population density). The results obtained from the various studies provide interesting insight to transit agencies. It can assist these agencies in developing strategies to increase transit patronage, thus improving the sustainability of the overall transportation system. 4 Résumé Au cours de la dernière décennie, une vague cherchant à améliorer le développement durable dans le secteur du transport urbain s’est manifestée. Dans cette veine, un obstacle récurrent est celui de la dépendance automobile. Les dirigeants ont le défi de trouver de nouvelles solutions et innovation afin de contrer les effets négatifs de cette dépendance. La pollution atmosphérique ainsi que les gaz à effet de serre (GES) provenant du haut taux d’utilisation automobile sont des enjeux importants pour la santé et sécurité des générations à suivre. De plus, l’expansion rapide des banlieues dans les villes nord-américaines encourage la surutilisation de l’automobile tout en diminuant l’usage du transport en commun. Un réseau efficace et une bonne planification d’un système de transport collectif peut offrir un service équitable et accessible à la population tout en contribuant à la diminution de la pollution atmosphérique et émissions de GES. Une piste intéressante en guise de solution est d’implanter des politiques vertes visant à augmenter l’achalandage du transport en commun et diminuer la dépendance automobile. Sans surprise, plusieurs régions métropolitaines cherchent à améliorer leur service et l’infrastructure du transport collectif afin d’offrir une alternative viable au transport privé. Une multitude d’étude cherchent à mieux comprendre les comportements individuels portant à l’utilisation du transport en commun tandis que d’autres se concentrent plutôt sur le côté opérationnel. Ces études sont d’une importance primordiale, puisque l’information obtenue peut être utilisée par les agences de transport pour optimiser leur service. Cette thèse est un recueil de trois études distinctes, dans laquelle le thème du transport en commun est abordé en différentes perspectives. La première étude examine les déplacements domicile-travail et domicile- école à Montréal, avec une emphase particulière sur le transport collectif. Le thème global de cette recherche est d’examiner l’effet de la performance du transport en commun sur le choix modal et choix de route (pour utilisateurs de transport en commun) d’un individu. Deux aspects du choix modal sont examinés : (1) les facteurs qui dissuadent un individu d’opter pour le transport collectif et (2) les 5 caractéristiques qui influences le choix de la route empruntée (pour
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