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Home , Albert Owen, Independent Unionist, Lesley Laird, Martin Whitfield, Paul Sweeney, Scottish Labour

6 December 2019

General election key seat guide The nations

his is the final briefing in Headland’s four-part series of 2019 General Election Key Seat Guides. This election will be a complex race with different voter dynamics in so T many different constituencies. Based on an assessment of election history, demographics and an in-depth knowledge of local areas, we will lay out which seats are going to be the most interesting and tightly fought during this election.

This edition focuses on the devolved nations – looking at , and Northern Ireland.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Wales, particularly North Wales, will be a key Labour/ Conservative battleground at this election, with the Conservatives needing to make gains in Leave-voting Labour heartlands to stand a chance of winning a majority.

• Still in a state of political flux, Scotland’s results are perhaps the most difficult to predict. A combination of marginal seats and loyalties over left/right, Leave/Remain, pro/anti- independence identities are all at play here.

• In Northern Ireland, the convergence of the vote around the largest nationalist and unionist parties seen in 2017 looks to be reversing as voters grapple with and complex social issues.

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The nations | 1 WALES Wales has been a Labour heartland for decades and the south of the country looks set to continue that trend. However, in the north things are less clear. Labour is under pressure in the North West of Wales from a combination of the Conservatives and the Welsh nationalists. In the former industrial areas towards the English border, where Labour’s traditional vote behaves much like it does in the and Midlands of England, the Party’s support is susceptible to the pro-Brexit Conservative message. As a result, keeping an eye on North Wales through election night will give a good indication as to if and how big the Conservative majority will be.

YNYS MON Incumbent: Albert Owen (Labour, retiring) Majority: 5,259 Ynys Mon, covering , was won by Labour in 2001. It has been a three-way marginal between Labour, and the Conservatives for decades and it is represented by Plaid Cymru in the Welsh Assembly. As with many of the North Wales seats, the population is small so the current majority represents a much bigger percentage than it might suggest. The fear of the impact Brexit might have on is likely to hurt the Conservative vote. However, the retirement of popular Labour MP Albert Owen makes this a tough fight for Labour against Plaid and they will be hoping they can hold on to enough votes from both Conservative and Plaid attacks to keep the seat. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD

ALYN & DEESIDE Incumbent: Mark Tami (Labour) Majority: 5,235 A top Conservative target, it was incorrectly called by the exit poll as a Conservative gain in 2017. Still high on the Party’s target list, but trouble finding a Conservative candidate has made for a slow start to their campaign. Labour are benefiting from a well organised campaign led by popular incumbent MP Mark Tami and are seeing support from the local Airbus factory come back to Labour following threats of job losses due to Brexit. The Conservatives would like to think they have a chance here, but the trends are moving in Labour’s direction at the moment. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD

WREXHAM Incumbent: Ian C. Lucas (Labour, retiring) Majority: 1,832 A once safe Labour seat, Wrexham has been getting more and more marginal in the last decade. With the Conservatives hoovering up the votes of Leave supporters, they are hoping to take this classic Labour seat. Labour are not helped by their MP of 18 years, Ian Lucas, standing down. Reports from the doorstep suggest that the Labour leader is a bigger drag on their vote than Brexit and thus the candidate, Corbyn-sceptic Mary Wimbury, will be hoping to distance herself from the leader. However, current polling points towards her losing this seat and a symbolic gain in North Wales for the Conservatives. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The nations | 2 DELYN Incumbent: Hywel Williams (Plaid Cymru) Majority: 92 Arfon has the smallest population of any seat in mainland Britain. With the population centred around the medieval town of Caernarvon and the university town of Bangor, this seat has been a Plaid Cymru/Labour marginal since its creation in 2010. Plaid currently hold the seat with the smallest majority in Wales and Labour will be hoping the ‘one more heave’ approach will get them over the line. However, in this seat, where 66% of people voted Remain, Plaid’s message of ‘revoke Article 50’ is likely to play well, particularly among students and lecturers in Bangor. Though Labour are putting a lot of resource into the seat, this looks, at this stage in the contest, a stretch for them. Headland prediction: PLAID CYMRU HOLD

SCOTLAND Scottish politics is in many ways still coming to terms with the seismic events that followed the 2014 independence referendum. Both Labour and the Conservatives were all but wiped out in 2015, only for both parties to make a surprising comeback in 2017. Events of the last three years have given the SNP hope they can reclaim the seats they lost, but with over 30 seats in the country having majorities of less than 3,000, and the dynamic of Remain/Leave vs. pro/ anti-independence not producing clear voting patterns, there are likely to be some interesting results here – many of which will be very difficult to predict.

AYR, CARRICK AND CUMNOCK Incumbent: (Conservative, retiring) Majority: 2,774 Once a safe Labour seat, this large economically diverse seat has had both SNP and Conservative representation in Westminster since 2015. The constituency, which includes former mining communities, fishing towns on the West Coast of Scotland and large swathes of agricultural land, has seen significant political change brought about by two referenda. The SNP won in their 2015 ‘tidal wave’, and the Conservatives gained the seat in 2017 through uniting the ‘Leave vote’ whilst the ‘Remain vote’ split amongst Labour and the SNP. However, as the Brexit process has continued, SNP support in the seat has grown, and with the incumbent Conservative standing down it is increasingly likely the SNP will take this seat back. Headland prediction: SNP GAIN

GLASGOW NORTH EAST Incumbent: (Labour) Majority: 242 North East was a Labour fortress for decades until 2015 when it was lost to the SNP following the independence referendum. To some surprise it was won back by Labour in 2017 with a small majority. The incumbent Labour MP, Paul Sweeney, has been vocal over the last two and a half years and has made a name for himself, particularly in Scotland where he won ‘Best Scot in Westminster’ at last year’s Scottish Politician of the Year Awards. However, Labour’s ambiguous Brexit position and a confused position on a second independence referendum means the SNP are making hay here and with a tiny majority to overturn, stand a good chance of taking this seat back. Headland prediction: SNP GAIN

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The nations | 3 AND COWDENBEATH Incumbent: (Labour) Majority: 259 The former seat of and now home to Labour’s Shadow Scottish Secretary Lesley Laird, this is another ultra-close SNP/Labour marginal. Unlike constituencies such as Glasgow North East, the demographics of this seat are older and more pro-union, something which in theory should help Labour. However, their seemingly consistently confused messaging about a second independence referendum mean the pro-union vote is split amongst the non- SNP parties. As such it will a very tall order for Labour to hold this one. Headland prediction: SNP GAIN

EAST LOTHIAN Incumbent: (Labour) Majority: 3,083 The ‘Dark Horse’ of Labour seats in Scotland – many insiders believe the Party, which has been largely written off in most of Scotland, might hold onto this seat. The constituency was a Labour stronghold until 2015 when it was lost to the SNP. However, following the ‘herding’ of Remain votes around Labour in 2017, they took the seat back. Since then, incumbent MP Martin Whitfield has been an outspoken voice in support of continued EU membership and has become popular locally. He has also been quietly critical of the Labour leadership which is likely to help him. That said, the SNP will be aiming to unite the independence vote and hive off a significant chunk of Labour’s ‘Remain’ support. This could be one of the closest fights in Scotland. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD

EAST Incumbent: Paul Masterton (Conservative) Majority: 4,712 The seat of former leader , this affluent middle class suburb of Glasgow, with a wider rural hinterland, went SNP in 2015 and then Conservative in 2017. The social demographics of the constituency coupled with being home to Scotland’s largest Jewish population mean Labour is not in the running here and thus the fight is between the Conservatives and the SNP. The composition of the electorate should naturally lend itself to returning a sizable Conservative majority, however, they voted 75% to remain in the EU and thus the pro-Brexit message from the national party does not play well. The incumbent MP, Paul Masterton, has been outspoken in his support for the EU but he will be up against it to keep the SNP at bay. The interesting dimension will be how people who voted ‘No’ in the independence referendum and then Remain break because which of those two ‘identities’ comes out on top will likely determine the future of this seat. Headland prediction: SNP GAIN

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The nations | 4 NORTHERN IRELAND Electoral politics in Northern Ireland have been complicated by Brexit. It remains the case that Brexit identities align with communitarian ones: Catholic nationalists are inclined to be pro-Remain, while Protestant unionists are more likely to be pro-Leave. However, the split loyalties of some groups – such as the powerful pro-Remain Protestant farmers’ lobby and the pro-Remain largely Protestant business in Belfast – could complicate matters for unionist Brexiteers. No starker is this the case than in Belfast where unionists could be in the position at the end of this election holding just one seat in the capital. With voters finding themselves quite literally on the front line of the issue, old loyalties may be shifting.

BELFAST NORTH Incumbent: Nigel Dodds (DUP) Majority: 2,081 This seat in Belfast’s docklands was traditionally a unionist stronghold but shifting demographics have diluted their dominance. The constituency is mostly working class with a pocket of middle class voters in the leafier and less sectarian area of Cavehill. Nigel Dodds, the DUP’s leader in Westminster, is facing a significant challenge from a Remain pact between the nationalist parties Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP). The SDLP have agreed to stand aside with the assumption that most of their vote will go to Sinn Féin. Should the republican Party be seen as the only viable Remain vote, some who voted for the liberal Alliance Party last time could also back Sinn Féin, pushing them over the line. The calculations have been complicated by the ’s withdrawal from the seat to allow the Democratic Unionist Party a clear run, following political pressure from the larger unionist party – and threats of violence against party members by the notorious paramilitaries in the East Belfast Ulster Defence Association. Still, a similar unionist pact in the last election delivered only a slim majority for Dodds, and the Remain pact may be enough to unseat him. Headland prediction: SINN FÉIN GAIN

NORTH DOWN Incumbent: Lady (Independent Unionist) Majority: 1,208 North Down has been somewhat of an anomaly in Northern Ireland politics. The safest of unionist seats, it resisted the DUP’s consolidation of the unionist vote in 2017. This was mostly down to the local reputation of Lady Sylvia Hermon, ex-Ulster Unionist Party and then independent unionist who was revered as a dedicated constituency MP. Upper-middle class voters in the seat also turned their nose up at the brash rhetoric of the DUP. Hermon has announced that she will not stand in 2019, and a Remain pact in the constituency between the liberal Alliance Party and the nationalist Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party looks doomed, largely due to the desultory performance of the latter two in polls in the past. Without an independent option, unionists will surely back the DUP so the Party’s perennial candidate, Alex Eaton, looks to be a shoo-in. Headland prediction: DUP GAIN

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The nations | 5 BELFAST SOUTH Incumbent: Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) Majority: 1,996 A rare swing seat in Northern Ireland’s divided system, Belfast South has historically had an equitable split between the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), DUP, Alliance and Sinn Féin. The seat covers some of Belfast’s most affluent neighbourhoods and Queen’s University and is thought to be amongst the most Remain-friendly areas in the city. The SDLP have been aided in their attempt to regain the seat which they lost in 2017 by Sinn Féin pulling out of the race, as part of the pact that gave the latter a clear run in Belfast North. All else being equal, Sinn Féin’s 8,000 votes from 2017 would be more than enough to restore a considerable majority for the SDLP. Headland prediction: SDLP GAIN

FERMANAGH AND SOUTH TYRONE Incumbent: (Sinn Fein) Majority: 875 This rural seat in Northern Ireland’s South West is almost equally split between working class Catholic nationalists in the towns and comparatively better-off unionist farmers in the countryside. Once the seat of IRA hunger striker Bobby Sands, the constituency has flip-flopped between Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionist Party for decades and is Northern Ireland’s second slimmest majority. Unionist pacts have become a norm in the constituency, with the DUP having not fielded a candidate in the last decade. The Sinn Féin candidate, Michelle Gildernew, has made her campaign all about Brexit in the hope of drawing some support from moderate unionist farmers who detest the idea of a hard border with the neighbouring Republic of Ireland and its potential impact on cross-border livestock trade. Gildernew’s messaging that voters must choose “which union they want to be a part of” may be enough to increase her majority in this tightly contested seat. Headland prediction: SINN FÉIN HOLD

FOYLE Incumbent: Elisha McCallion (Sinn Féin) Majority: 169 A working class largely Catholic seat, Foyle has long been a nationalist stronghold. The constituency was dominated by the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) for decades, with the Party’s leader – and architect of the peace process – John Hume holding the seat since its creation in 1983 until he was succeeded by fellow SDLP man Mark Durkan. The Party was narrowly ousted by a popular Sinn Féin MLA, Elisha McCallion, in the 2017 election. The two parties’ marriage of convenience in Belfast South has not been extended to Foyle, where the contest for nationalist votes is highly competitive. SDLP leader Colm Eastwood is standing in the constituency, in a sign of how highly the Party views the seat as the key to a turnaround of its fortunes. Nationalist voters view Brexit as an existential threat, and Brexit politics will likely play a key role in this border constituency. The fact that nationalists may want a pro-Remain, nationalist voice in the Commons may be enough to coax nationalist Remainers back to the Party’s fold. Headland prediction: SDLP GAIN

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The nations | 6