6 December 2019 General election key seat guide The nations his is the final briefing in Headland’s four-part series of 2019 General Election Key Seat Guides. This election will be a complex race with different voter dynamics in so T many different constituencies. Based on an assessment of election history, demographics and an in-depth knowledge of local areas, we will lay out which seats are going to be the most interesting and tightly fought during this election. This edition focuses on the devolved nations – looking at Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Wales, particularly North Wales, will be a key Labour/ Conservative battleground at this election, with the Conservatives needing to make gains in Leave-voting Labour heartlands to stand a chance of winning a majority. • Still in a state of political flux, Scotland’s results are perhaps the most difficult to predict. A combination of marginal seats and loyalties over left/right, Leave/Remain, pro/anti- independence identities are all at play here. • In Northern Ireland, the convergence of the vote around the largest nationalist and unionist parties seen in 2017 looks to be reversing as voters grapple with Brexit and complex social issues. Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The nations | 1 WALES Wales has been a Labour heartland for decades and the south of the country looks set to continue that trend. However, in the north things are less clear. Labour is under pressure in the North West of Wales from a combination of the Conservatives and the Welsh nationalists. In the former industrial areas towards the English border, where Labour’s traditional vote behaves much like it does in the North East and Midlands of England, the Party’s support is susceptible to the pro-Brexit Conservative message. As a result, keeping an eye on North Wales through election night will give a good indication as to if and how big the Conservative majority will be. YNYS MON Incumbent: Albert Owen (Labour, retiring) Majority: 5,259 Ynys Mon, covering Anglesey, was won by Labour in 2001. It has been a three-way marginal between Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives for decades and it is represented by Plaid Cymru in the Welsh Assembly. As with many of the North Wales seats, the population is small so the current majority represents a much bigger percentage than it might suggest. The fear of the impact Brexit might have on Holyhead is likely to hurt the Conservative vote. However, the retirement of popular Labour MP Albert Owen makes this a tough fight for Labour against Plaid and they will be hoping they can hold on to enough votes from both Conservative and Plaid attacks to keep the seat. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD ALYN & DEESIDE Incumbent: Mark Tami (Labour) Majority: 5,235 A top Conservative target, it was incorrectly called by the exit poll as a Conservative gain in 2017. Still high on the Party’s target list, but trouble finding a Conservative candidate has made for a slow start to their campaign. Labour are benefiting from a well organised campaign led by popular incumbent MP Mark Tami and are seeing support from the local Airbus factory come back to Labour following threats of job losses due to Brexit. The Conservatives would like to think they have a chance here, but the trends are moving in Labour’s direction at the moment. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD WREXHAM Incumbent: Ian C. Lucas (Labour, retiring) Majority: 1,832 A once safe Labour seat, Wrexham has been getting more and more marginal in the last decade. With the Conservatives hoovering up the votes of Leave supporters, they are hoping to take this classic Labour seat. Labour are not helped by their MP of 18 years, Ian Lucas, standing down. Reports from the doorstep suggest that the Labour leader is a bigger drag on their vote than Brexit and thus the new Labour candidate, Corbyn-sceptic Mary Wimbury, will be hoping to distance herself from the leader. However, current polling points towards her losing this seat and a symbolic gain in North Wales for the Conservatives. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The nations | 2 DELYN Incumbent: Hywel Williams (Plaid Cymru) Majority: 92 Arfon has the smallest population of any seat in mainland Britain. With the population centred around the medieval town of Caernarvon and the university town of Bangor, this seat has been a Plaid Cymru/Labour marginal since its creation in 2010. Plaid currently hold the seat with the smallest majority in Wales and Labour will be hoping the ‘one more heave’ approach will get them over the line. However, in this seat, where 66% of people voted Remain, Plaid’s message of ‘revoke Article 50’ is likely to play well, particularly among students and lecturers in Bangor. Though Labour are putting a lot of resource into the seat, this looks, at this stage in the contest, a stretch for them. Headland prediction: PLAID CYMRU HOLD SCOTLAND Scottish politics is in many ways still coming to terms with the seismic events that followed the 2014 independence referendum. Both Labour and the Conservatives were all but wiped out in 2015, only for both parties to make a surprising comeback in 2017. Events of the last three years have given the SNP hope they can reclaim the seats they lost, but with over 30 seats in the country having majorities of less than 3,000, and the dynamic of Remain/Leave vs. pro/ anti-independence not producing clear voting patterns, there are likely to be some interesting results here – many of which will be very difficult to predict. AYR, CARRICK AND CUMNOCK Incumbent: Bill Grant (Conservative, retiring) Majority: 2,774 Once a safe Labour seat, this large economically diverse seat has had both SNP and Conservative representation in Westminster since 2015. The constituency, which includes former mining communities, fishing towns on the West Coast of Scotland and large swathes of agricultural land, has seen significant political change brought about by two referenda. The SNP won in their 2015 ‘tidal wave’, and the Conservatives gained the seat in 2017 through uniting the ‘Leave vote’ whilst the ‘Remain vote’ split amongst Labour and the SNP. However, as the Brexit process has continued, SNP support in the seat has grown, and with the incumbent Conservative standing down it is increasingly likely the SNP will take this seat back. Headland prediction: SNP GAIN GLASGOW NORTH EAST Incumbent: Paul Sweeney (Labour) Majority: 242 Glasgow North East was a Labour fortress for decades until 2015 when it was lost to the SNP following the independence referendum. To some surprise it was won back by Labour in 2017 with a small majority. The incumbent Labour MP, Paul Sweeney, has been vocal over the last two and a half years and has made a name for himself, particularly in Scotland where he won ‘Best Scot in Westminster’ at last year’s Scottish Politician of the Year Awards. However, Labour’s ambiguous Brexit position and a confused position on a second independence referendum means the SNP are making hay here and with a tiny majority to overturn, stand a good chance of taking this seat back. Headland prediction: SNP GAIN Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The nations | 3 KIRKCALDY AND COWDENBEATH Incumbent: Lesley Laird (Labour) Majority: 259 The former seat of Gordon Brown and now home to Labour’s Shadow Scottish Secretary Lesley Laird, this is another ultra-close SNP/Labour marginal. Unlike constituencies such as Glasgow North East, the demographics of this seat are older and more pro-union, something which in theory should help Labour. However, their seemingly consistently confused messaging about a second independence referendum mean the pro-union vote is split amongst the non- SNP parties. As such it will a very tall order for Labour to hold this one. Headland prediction: SNP GAIN EAST LOTHIAN Incumbent: Martin Whitfield (Labour) Majority: 3,083 The ‘Dark Horse’ of Labour seats in Scotland – many insiders believe the Party, which has been largely written off in most of Scotland, might hold onto this seat. The constituency was a Labour stronghold until 2015 when it was lost to the SNP. However, following the ‘herding’ of Remain votes around Labour in 2017, they took the seat back. Since then, incumbent MP Martin Whitfield has been an outspoken voice in support of continued EU membership and has become popular locally. He has also been quietly critical of the Labour leadership which is likely to help him. That said, the SNP will be aiming to unite the independence vote and hive off a significant chunk of Labour’s ‘Remain’ support. This could be one of the closest fights in Scotland. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD EAST RENFREWSHIRE Incumbent: Paul Masterton (Conservative) Majority: 4,712 The seat of former Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy, this affluent middle class suburb of Glasgow, with a wider rural hinterland, went SNP in 2015 and then Conservative in 2017. The social demographics of the constituency coupled with being home to Scotland’s largest Jewish population mean Labour is not in the running here and thus the fight is between the Conservatives and the SNP. The composition of the electorate should naturally lend itself to returning a sizable Conservative majority, however, they voted 75% to remain in the EU and thus the pro-Brexit message from the national party does not play well. The incumbent MP, Paul Masterton, has been outspoken in his support for the EU but he will be up against it to keep the SNP at bay. The interesting dimension will be how people who voted ‘No’ in the independence referendum and then Remain break because which of those two ‘identities’ comes out on top will likely determine the future of this seat.