A World in Turmoil

www.policymagazine.ca March—April 2020

Canadian Politics and Public Policy

AThe World Conservative in Turmoil Leadership

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Route # of daily Distance Productive Non-productive Cost Cost Taxpayer savings departures train time car time* of travelling of travelling by by choosing by car** train (as low as) train travel***

Ottawa Toronto Up to 20 450 km 4 h 25 min 4 h 46 min $487 $49 $438

Ottawa Montréal Up to 12 198 km 1 h 50 min 2 h 21 min $230 $37 $193

Ottawa Québec City Up to 8 482 km 5 h 39 min 4 h 47 min $510 $49 $461

Toronto Montréal Up to 13 541 km 4 h 49 min 5 h 39 min $583 $49 $534

Government of Canada employees enjoy a 10% discount on personal travel booked directly with VIA Rail. Government of Canada employees can take advantage of specially negotiated rates for business travel available through the Shared Travel Services HRG Portal. The discount does not apply to Prestige class or Escape fares. * Data pulled from a travel application on March 22, 2019, at 5 pm. ** The total cost to the taxpayer of travelling by car is calculated based on the following formula: $ cost of travelling by car (Treasury Board kilometric rate for Ontario of $0.58/km for car travel by a government official X total distance travelled) + $ employee-related cost (average hourly rate of $48/h for a government employee, based on a salary of $100,000 per year including employee benefits X travel time) = $ total cost to taxpayer. *** The value of travelling by train is calculated based on the following formula: $ cost of travelling by car – $ cost of travelling by train = $ taxpayer savings. Fares and conditions are subject to change without notice. TMTrademark owned by VIA Rail Canada Inc.

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Check couleur : C M J N Les sorties laser ne refl ètent pas fi dèlement les couleurs telles qu’elles paraîtront List sur le produit fi ni. Cette épreuve est utilisée à des fi ns de mise en page seulement. In This Issue Canadian Politics and Pub licFrom Poli cythe Editor / L. Ian MacDonald 2 The World in Turmoil Canadian Politics and 3 Jeremy Kinsman Public Policy Canada’s Role in a World of Turmoil Robin V. Sears EDITOR AND PUBLISHER 6 L. Ian MacDonald A China Reality Check [email protected] 10 Dennis Horak ASSOCIATE EDITOR U.S.-Iran Relations: Lessons for Canada From the Ukraine Lisa Van Dusen Airlines Tragedy [email protected] Suzanne Fortier CONTRIBUTING WRITERS 13 Letter From Davos: A Powerful Telescope Into the Future Thomas S. Axworthy, Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran, 15 Elizabeth May Derek H. Burney, Catherine Cano, Australia: Ground Zero of Climate Politics Margaret Clarke, Rachel Curran, John Delacourt, Susan Delacourt, The Conservative Race Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier, Helaina Gaspard, Martin Goldfarb, Yaroslav Baran Sarah Goldfeder, Patrick Gossage, 17 The Road to Toronto: Pathway to Power Frank Graves, Shachi Kurl, Brad Lavigne, Geoff Norquay Kevin Lynch, Jeremy Kinsman, 19 Peter Mansbridge, Carissima Mathen, The Conservative Leadership: Waiting for Content Elizabeth May, Velma McColl, Brian Topp David McLaughlin, David Mitchell, 21 Party Members Don’t Pick Leaders, and They Should Don Newman, Geoff Norquay, Fen Osler-Hampson, Kevin Page, Column / Don Newman Robin V. Sears, Brian Topp, 24 Thanks, but No Thanks Lori Turnbull, Jaime Watt, Anthony Wilson-Smith Budget Preview WEB DESIGN Nicolas Landry 25 Kevin Page with Kyra Carmichael, Nicholas Liban Dahir, [email protected] and Hiba Khan Budget 2020: Managing Risk and Uncertainty SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR Grace MacDonald Helaina Gaspard and Emily Woolner [email protected] 27 Budgeting for Well-Being GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION Monica Thomas Canada and the World [email protected] 29 Shachi Kurl Policy A Canadian Divide Over Barricades, Pipelines and Indigenous Reconciliation Policy is published six times annually by LPAC Ltd. The contents are Philip J. Cercone copyrighted, but may be reproduced 31 Can’tLit? Complacency and Canadian Publishing Policy with permission and attribution in L. Ian MacDonald print, and viewed free of charge at the 35 Policy home page at Leo: A Life, Well-Lived www.policymagazine.ca. BOOK REVIEWS Price: $6.95 per issue Annual Subscription: $39.95 Review by Lori Turnbull Printed and distributed by St. Joseph 38 Truth Be Told: My Journey Through Life and the Law Communications, 1165 Kenaston Beverley McLachlin Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 1A4 Review by Anthony Wilson-Smith Available in Air Canada Maple Leaf 39 The Fight for History: 75 Years of Forgetting, Remembering and Lounges across Canada, as well as Remaking Canada’s Second World War VIA Rail Lounges in Montreal, Ottawa Tim Cook and Toronto. Review by Daniel Béland Now available on PressReader. 40 Democracy in Canada: The Disintegration of our Institutions Donald J. Savoie Special thanks to our sponsors and advertisers.

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From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald A World in Turmoil elcome to our issue on A by its almost hysterical reaction to the Rona Ambrose, Pierre Poilievre and World in Turmoil, in which January 11 re-election of President John Baird, all of whom said “Thanks, W we look at some of the re- Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan.” but no thanks”. That left former Pro- cent global issues—from China to When it comes to the Middle East and gressive Conservative Leader Peter Iran to climate change—facing us all. Gulf states, the credentials of Dennis MacKay the default frontrunner and For Canada, as always, the question is Horak, former head of mission in Iran MP Erin O’Toole, for the moment, a about our place, and role, in the world. and later ambassador to Saudi Ara- distant second. Veteran Conservative From the end of the Second World bia, are as solid as they come. On the strategist Yaroslav Baran looks at the War 75 years ago, to the end of the shooting-down of Ukraine Airlines road to the Toronto convention, while Cold War nearly half a century lat- Flight 752, which claimed the lives of Geoff Norquay considers the players. er, Canada’s place was with its allies 57 Canadians and 29 permanent Ca- In terms of process, Brian Topp looks and its role was as a middle power nadian residents, Horak sees it as the across from the NDP gallery and sug- in the struggle of democracy against tragic outcome of decades of hostili- gests party members should have a tyranny, and of free markets versus ty between Washington and Tehran, greater say than a preferential on-line ballot, as is the case with the Conser- state economies. with Canada caught in the crossfire. “Future incidents,” Horak writes, “are vatives. And Don Newman handicaps The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and a near certainty.” the race in his column. the demise of Soviet communism, were supposed to herald a geopoliti- The world’s most important annu- lsewhere, Kevin Page previews cal realignment, an era of peace and al conference of ideas is held by the Budget 2020, with the collabo- prosperity led by the United States, World Economic Forum every January E ration of several of his students with Canada in its customary role as in Davos, featuring a strong Canadian from the Institute for Fiscal Studies an honest broker. Now, the post-Cold contingent led by the likes of Suzanne and Democracy while IFSD Director of War New World Order that seemed Fortier, Principal and Vice-Chancellor Governance Helaina Gaspard and re- inevitable in 1989 has been usurped of McGill. Fortier is currently Chair of search assistant Emily Woolner look by a different New World Order, one the WEF’s Global University Leaders’ to a better world of budget transpar- with decidedly different values. Forum, and shares her impressions ency and vision. Meanwhile, pollster from this year’s WEF. She was struck Shachi Kurl offers a timely look at the There’s no better guide for this tour by two Davos reports, Jobs of Tomor- mood of Canada on rail blockades, d’horizon than our own lead foreign row and Schools of the Future. She con- pipelines and reconciliation with In- affairs writer and former senior dip- cludes: “I hope to give members of the digenous peoples. lomat Jeremy Kinsman. “Our foreign McGill community the opportunity policy belief system, the mantra of co- On the Canadian book industry, Philip to be local and global shapers.” operative liberal internationalism,” he Cercone of McGill-Queen’s University writes, “is being challenged, especial- On the heels of her excellent report- Press looks at Canadian publishing, ly in our own neighbourhood.” But ing from the Madrid COP25 in our acclaimed internationally for writers it isn’t just Donald Trump. There are last issue, former Green Party leader such as Margaret Atwood, but strug- other actors, in China, Russia, Iran Elizabeth May delivers her take on gling to grow market share at home. and elsewhere pushing the world the Australia bushfires as just one fac- Finally, I was privileged to work with away from democracy. tor making Australia ground zero of Sen. Leo Kolber on his best-selling climate politics. “We are operating in 2003 memoir Leo: A Life, and offer a ur Robin Sears knows Asia a fog,” she concludes, “or maybe it’s tribute on his recent passing, at 90. and China like his own back- just the smoke.” yard, having worked as Ontar- And we offer three reviews of impor- O loser to home, we’re now in tant Canadian books—Lori Turn- io’s Tokyo-based representative, and later in the private sector in Hong the spring of the Conserva- bull on Beverley McLachlin’s mem- Kong. Our cover image speaks vol- C tive leadership race, marked oir, Truth Be Told, a judge’s fascinating umes, with Hong Kong residents tak- in the early going by the successive life; Anthony Wilson-Smith on Tim ing to the streets in late 2019 to protest standing-down of first-tier candidates. Cook’s The Fight for History, on Can- an extradition bill pushed by Beijing. Usually, the opposition leader is ada and the Second World War, and Sears writes that China’s obdurate “reviewed by the party as a prime minis- Daniel Béland on Donald Savoie’s De- fusal to give an inch towards reconcil- ter in waiting, especially in a minority mocracy in Canada. iation in Hong Kong, is now matched Parliament. Tell that to Jean Charest, All must-reads. Enjoy.

Policy 3

Canada’s Role in a World of Turmoil

After the end of the Second World War in 1945 and panied the Berlin Wall’s fall in 1989. That ignited a decade when we as- following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, Canada sumed more open and cooperative so- played an important middle power role in the post-war cieties would be de rigueur. It seemed and post-Cold War spread of democratic values and free inevitable that national impulses and expectations would be mediated market economies. But that’s not the shape or direction through universal cooperative inter- of today’s emerging world of turbulence. Our lead for- national rules and institutions. eign affairs writer Jeremy Kinsman asks the pertinent So it goes. Our national interest is as Canadian question: what is Canada’s role in this new vested as ever in cooperative rules- based internationalism, but we can’t world of turmoil? hang on to old international institutions, habits of thought, and world rankings that are overtaken by new realities.

Jeremy Kinsman “How am I doing?” But we are stuck with our geogra- fter 75 years, our foreign poli- One day an older lady pleaded, “May- phy. Still, we needn’t bow to Mon- tesquieu’s dictum that geography cy belief system, the mantra or! Please make it like it was...Make it is all that drives our fate. It’s also A of cooperative liberal interna- like it used to be.” tionalism, is being challenged, espe- our leverage. “Lady,” he said, “It was never as good cially in our own neighbourhood. We shall always be emphatically as we think it was...But I’ll try.” A contagion of competitive national- North American, though our geo- istic illiberalism and misremembered graphic self-concept is enlarging as nostalgia is pushing back against the Of course, today’s we add our sense of our North, as in forces of globalization and change. turmoil roiling the “From Sea to Sea to Sea.” Borne on the winds of populist slo- world shows a drastic Canada’s outward view is themati- gans—“Make America Great Again,” change in mood from the cally very different from that of the or (Brexit’s) “Take Back Control”—it internationalist optimism Trump White House. We need to stay venerates old identities, status, and unapologetically globalists, and con- values. that accompanied the Berlin tinue energetically to strengthen ties Wall’s fall in 1989. That with like-minded internationalists as Change happens. Its impact on world “the other North America.” We need rankings has created an increasingly ignited a decade when we to work together to reboot the world’s fierce U.S. resistance to China’s chal- assumed more open and belief in liberal internationalism. lenge to U.S. primacy, catching Can- cooperative societies would ada in the middle. be de rigueur. It’s worth reflecting on how it lost ground. Confidence and turbulent change have always interacted in contrary It happened the way Hemingway de- global cycles. scribed in The Sun Also Rises, how bankruptcy happens: at first, “gradu- Upheaval in the 1970s had left many ally. Then suddenly.” older Americans reeling, and long- f course,today’s turmoil roiling for times gone by. Ed Koch, the ing the world shows a dras- The nineties had a golden surface. ebullient mayor of New York, con- Otic change in mood from the Western stock markets boomed, pro- tinuously checked their pulse asking, internationalist optimism that accom- pelled by new tech. China and India

March/April 2020 4 services devastated the reputation of the capitalist system in the eyes of millions. But again, Canadians de- fied the crisis. Our prudent financial regulations kept us on dry land from the flood of bankruptcies that affected ordinary people almost ev- erywhere else.

Obama won office just as the still underestimated 2008 financial crisis was unfolding. His distinct preference for multilateralism renewed the hopes of internationalists. Moreover, his belief that “yes, we can,” helped to fuel the Arab Spring of protests and uprisings against authoritarian governments in the Islamic world. Except for Tunisia’s, they failed.

oreover, while Canada embraced Obama’s interna- M tionalism, democracy- averse China and Russia, even India, chose to pump up nationalist pride and purpose. To some extent, they U.S. President George H.W. Bush and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev during a press gamed the international economic conference at the Helsinki Summit on September 9, 1990. Wikimedia photo system which they regarded as serving the interests of the established economic powers who designed it. began their accelerated ascension to Unfortunately, in 2003, the U.S. The World Trade Organization stag- the world Premier Economic League, and U.K. rushed to an unnecessary gered into increasing irrelevance. lifting hundreds of millions into the invasion of Iraq that catastrophi- Rising countries resented the assump- middle class. cally turned the Middle East into tion they should just imitate West- the world’s first failed region. Jean ern liberal ways. On the other hand, e celebrated the end of the Chrétien made the right call, to stay many of the best and brightest in the Cold War, an outcome en- out of what presidential candidate post-communist countries of Europe W abled by Mikhail Gor- Barack Obama would later term “this emigrated to the West. This depletion bachev. But we were naive to think stupid war.” by emigration induced phobic antip- that it was bound to be welcomed athy to phantom immigration, espe- as win-win for everybody. Despite cially Muslim, as the grotesque Syr- George H.W. Bush’s thoughtful ad- Moreover, while ian civil war and conflict with ISIS vice, American triumphalism began spewed millions of refugees across Canada embraced porous European borders (though to make resentful Russians feel like Obama’s internationalism, paradoxically, not to the post-com- losers. U.S. neo-conservatives dis- democracy-averse China and munist countries in question). missed grievance over NATO expansion to Russia’s borders. “We won. Russia, even India, chose to Populist nationalist leaders exploited Get over it.” So, Vladimir Putin’s re- pump up nationalist pride the fever of resentment, contesting covering Russia went rogue. and purpose. liberal Western values. Demagogues marshalled nationalist, ethnic, and On 9/11, 2001, the roof fell in on sectarian majorities against plural- complacent Western narcissism. Ji- ism, change, and established “elites” hadist terrorism became a new global at home and abroad. They also be- scourge. Borders hardened, including gan to disassemble the checks and our own with the U.S. Societies re-pri- In 2008, the evidence of endemic fi- balances of democracy in favour of oritized for a new kind of war. nancial fraud in Western financial authoritarian power. The contagion

Policy 5 of nationalist populism metastasized Our Canada-U.S. working levels function day-to-day to Western democracies where “left- pretty well in mutual functional interest. Basic behind” workers blamed “globalization” and the remorseless ener- friendships endure and sooner or later will again prevail in gy of change for the export of their defining the bilateral relationship. jobs and the hollowing-out of their communities.

Amplified by errant and irresponsible monetized social media, political polarization eviscerated the centre, where compromise can live. As Wil- dition treaty stipulates for extradi- government will keep its composure liam Butler Yeats put it in The Second tion. Yet, for decades, Canada has and accept that we have to navigate Coming a century ago, opposed the extraterritorial appli- the world on terms that suit our in- cation of U.S. law to foreigners, and terests. Lining up behind the Trump “Things fall apart; the centre cannot abroad. It is baffling why Canadian administration in an adversarial G-2 hold...... Justice officials who, according to contest is not the way to go. The best lack all conviction, while the treaty, represent the U.S. case in Trump’s ascent wasn’t an accident. the worst Vancouver court hearings continue America today is what it is, polar- Are full of passionate intensity.” to present over-the-top arguments ized, dysfunctional, and unreliable that Canada should extradite the Thus, “America First!” became a win- at the top. As Lester Pearson once ambushed Huawei executive. ning presidential slogan in 2016, said, we shouldn’t shy from giving supplanting Obama’s international- In a cynical and deplorable reprisal, the Americans a kick in the shins ev- ist leadership. Tariffs and sanctions the furious Chinese jailed two inno- ery so often. Our Canada-U.S. work- were weaponized against partners cent Canadians. It was a very harsh ing levels function day-to-day pretty who resisted the systematic undoing warning to all and sundry that Chi- well in mutual interest. Basic friend- of international agreements to tame na has real red lines at stake in this ships endure and sooner or later will humanity’s greatest threats, nuclear new era of all-out competition with again prevail in defining the bilater- weapons, and global warming. the U.S. Unfortunately, it prompt- al relationship. ed a phobic wave of anti-Chinese re- In the meantime, our national inter- irst gradually, then suddenly, porting in Canadian print media, and ests call for determined defence of internationalist Canada was calls for counter-reprisals against the international cooperation, and resis- mugged by the increasing- Chinese. We resisted those, but clear- F tance to nationalist populism. The ly dominant nationalist reality. Yet, ly, the rosy lens which for some time most effective promotion of democ- we managed a defensive save of our had blurred the real nature of new racy is by the vivid example of in- most important relationship by ne- China’s old-style communist leader- clusive and responsive governance gotiating an upgrade of NAFTA. We ship needed an updated prescription. at home that works. The crisis over completed a comprehensive 21st With wary eyes wide open, we need the Wet’suwet’en territory is a test. century economic cooperation agree- that relationship. ment with the EU. But with the other Resilience and capacity to navigate of the three great economic powers, China’s profound crisis over the deftly challenging surprise “events” China, it went sour. coronavirus epidemic has been a like the Iranian plane catastrophe chastening experience, jarring their and our breakdown with China The emerging U.S./China rivalry enormously successful top-down na- also test us. blindsided us into entrapping Hua- tional development narrative. But There will always be combative Ca- wei’s Meng Wanzhou at YVR on be- it has permitted Canadian and Chi- nadian political voices condemning a half of a vindictive U.S. Department nese officials to connect and coop- smile for the Iranian or Chinese for- of Justice. The U.S. sought to hob- erate. It may have increased mutual eign minister as inappropriate, who ble China’s principal competitor for confidence so that we can resolve our judge that reaching out to communi- global telecommunications primacy shared hostage problem. with an indictment for Iranian sanc- cate is a sign of weakness. tions-busting that had nothing to do eanwhile, the old U.S. neo- But it never is. with Canada. conservative security blob Contributing Writer Jeremy Kinsman This isn’t the place to re-litigate the M is pumping up the neces- is a former Canadian Ambassador argument that Meng Wanzhou cer- sity of a new Cold War against Chi- to Russia and the European Union, tainly did not commit a crime that na, along with hard-line solidarity and High Commissioner to the U.K. would merit at least a year’s impris- against other enemies, notably Rus- He is a Distinguished Fellow with the onment in Canada that the extra- sia, and Iran. Hopefully, the Trudeau Canadian International Council.

March/April 2020 6

Protesters in Hong Kong demanding democratic reform, October, 2019. Former Hong Kong resident Robin Sears writes that Beijing’s intractability on Hong Kong is now matched by its fixation on Taiwan’s newly re-elected government.Wikimedia photo A China Reality Check

As the “peaceful rise” China’s leaders promised amid the Robin V. Sears country’s stunning socioeconomic progress has proven to his was to have been a year of be bumpier than anticipated, the tension between Bei- celebration of the half-century T anniversary of Canada’s land- jing’s global ambitions and the rules-based international mark recognition, in 1970, of the order have escalated. Veteran political strategist Robin People’s Republic of China. Instead, Sears, who spent six years as Ontario’s agent general for we are close to a state of paralysis in government-to-government relations. Asia and a further six in the private sector in Hong Kong, The bilateral dynamic has not been writes that now more than ever, Canada must proceed this bad since the global outrage over the People’s Liberation Army crack- with caution. down on protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Some China watchers say things have never been this chilly. Canada is not alone in facing a more unpredictable and obdurate China. Not only is the United States entering round two of a potentially disastrous trade war; Australia, Germany, Sweden and many other nations are

Policy 7 all experiencing the consequences The Chinese refusal to give an inch toward of a China too easily offended and reconciliation in Hong Kong is now matched by too often over-reacting to perceived slights. China appears to be drifting an almost hysterical reaction to the January 11 toward the brink of confrontation re-election of President Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan. Taiwan is on several fronts. the most emotionally charged file in China’s relations We need to recognize that our com- with the world. mercial interests in this relationship, while of strategic importance to us more than to China, cannot always take precedence over maintaining the post-war consensus on the rules governing members of the internation- the Treasure Island featuring video of American, Japanese and Taiwanese al community. We have made these fighters circling Taiwan. At the same command and control systems in tar- choices before. We supported—albe- time, in the real world, the Chinese geted cyber-attacks. A military offen- it, too late—tough sanctions on apart- air force broke a three-decade old con- sive or targeted cyberattack against heid South Africa at some commercial vention and flew fighter jets across the Taiwan’s economy, energy grid or cost to Canadian business. line in the Taiwan Strait separating the other infrastructure could draw the island from the mainland. One of Chi- U.S. and the West into an unprece- he Chinese refusal to give an na’s two aircraft carriers (two more are dented, status-testing escalation. currently under construction) made inch toward reconciliation in Former U.S. Secretary of State and Chi- two passes in the Taiwan Strait in less T Hong Kong is now matched by na expert Henry Kissinger, who more than two months; again, a first. In a an almost hysterical reaction to the than any other has defined and de- bombastic reaction to the landslide January 11 re-election of President fended the West’s efforts to find a way re-election of President Tsai, the offi- Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan. Taiwan is the to work with China, has pleaded for cial Chinese response called the result most emotionally charged file in Chi- an understanding of our long-term a “fluke,” said her victory had been na’s relations with the world. China’s goals and the time required to achieve achieved through massive “cheating,” claim on Taiwan as an integral part of them. Kissinger draws on the similar- and declared the winner “evil.” the nation goes back to the 19th cen- ities today with World War One. He tury. Chiang Kai-Shek’s flight to Tai- The world has never been here before. points out that every statesman in the wan and his successful bloody seizure Today in China the world faces a rich spring of 1914 would have behaved of the island, cheated the PLA of their and increasingly powerful authoritar- very differently if they could have seen final victory over their hated enemy, ian state, integral to the global econo- what horrific consequences would un- his Kuomintang army. my. The Soviet Union by contrast may fold as a result of their choices that not have been “Bangladesh with bal- Since the creation of the People’s Re- summer. They did not have that abil- listic missiles,” in the dismissive words public of China (PRC) in 1949, the ity, but we have no such excuse. of American super-hawk Richard Per- Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has The Communist Party of China’s for- le, but neither was it a true global su- been obsessed by ‘unity’ with Taiwan. perpower. Strategies to counter Soviet eign policy, until Deng Xiaoping, They reconciled with one faction of power and influence when the world echoing that of centuries of Chinese the Kuomintang (KMT) in the 70s, was easily bifurcated into capitalism emperors, had one centre of gravity: only to be enraged by the creation of and communism will not apply here. the defence of the motherland. Chi- a successful political competitor in China today is not simply integrated na never attempted to occupy distant Ms.Tsai’s party, the Democratic Pro- into the economy in ways the USSR foreign territories, only those on its gressive Party (DPP). In the unending never was, it is absolutely crucial to it. borders. Foreign imperial adventures ironies of Chinese history, the CCP Cold War era policies of isolation can- simply did not contribute to the de- and the rump of the KMT are now not apply here. fence of Chinese territory. Mao and allies, but in today’s KMT, the CCP even Deng would probably have been has a very weakened ally. Beijing has deeply skeptical about the PLA Navy n Taiwan, we may be ap- been blocked at every turn by an in- setting up a provocative naval base on proaching a dangerous prec- creasingly independent nation of citi- the Horn of Africa, for example. The ipice. Chinese military ca- zens, many of whom identify as Tai- O massive Chinese Djibouti base is lit- pacity is reaching the level at which wanese first and Chinese second. erally beside even larger U.S., French a “successful” invasion could be con- Evidence of this obsession was re- templated. According to some mili- and other military bases and assets vealed by the PLA Air Force a few tary observers in Taiwan and Wash- along that vital shipping corridor. months ago when they released a pop ington, China already has the ca- What makes this situation unique, video titled, My War Eagles Are Circling pability to render blind and useless and in no way vulnerable to the

March/April 2020 8 “Thucydides trap” whereby when one Seen from the perspective of the Unit- hardly rational responses to a public great power rises to displace another, ed States and the West however, Chi- health crisis. They reflect the ambigu- war is the result, is this: China, unlike na’s efforts to buy influence across vast ity of Chinese leaders’ thinking about Sparta, or Carthage, or even Germa- swathes of territory beyond its borders the use of state power in a crisis. ny, is already a superpower—militar- with the Belt and Road infrastructure ily and economically—woven deeply initiative, its efforts to threaten access wo threads of Chinese history into the fabric of the global economy. to the South China Sea, its complete —the justifiable angst of its There is no realistic economic decou- rejection of international legal deci- T rulers about their domestic pling possible, except at a cost of tril- sions about free passage, its rapidly ex- survival and a suspicion of the non- lions and decades of destructive effort. panding blue water navy, and its ris- Chinese world—still form part of ing rhetorical aggression towards its the culture of the leadership of the neighbours, paint a picture of a sober- CCP today. China, unlike Sparta, ing new strategic threat. or Carthage, or even A secure party in power does not in- Germany, is already a China has, according to some intelli- vite international opprobrium and gence observers the largest and most superpower—militarily and waste billions of dollars building “re- capable network of spy agencies in the education” camps for its citizens. A economically—woven deeply world. There’s an emerging consensus secure leader does not regularly pro- into the fabric of the global that it is at least coming to be Ameri- claim the unshakeable future of his economy. There is no ca’s equal in this domain. rule—unless he worries that that realistic economic Yet no vision is sufficient to under- may not be the case. In finding the decoupling possible. standing China’s sometimes baffling right balance, therefore, in a stra- behavior without the inclusion of a tegic analysis of China’s intentions final layer: China and the CCP are, and likely future choices, each factor and always have been, deeply insecure deserves weight. about their place in the world and It is true that China often presents it- their legitimacy in power. The Chi- self on the global stage with a provoca- ere is an indication of the nese Communist Party has not had tive arrogance. There is no monolithic challenge: General Motors al- as deeply insecure as Xi Jinping since ready sells far more cars in ‘China Inc.,’ but across many of its in- H its first. Mao’s feared class enemies stitutions, one can hear the tension in China that it does in the U.S. Does “swarmed like flies” around him at all anyone believe those ratios will be re- their leaders’ public statements, veer- times. That Xi is in power at the same ing between overweening confidence versed in a market 1.4 billion of still moment as America’s most deeply in- mostly car-less buyers vs. the declin- and a hesitation revealing an underly- secure president in memory doesn’t ing uncertainty. And there is the im- ing U.S. market? The core of China’s enhance global stability. drive toward technological self-suffi- pact of history in other ways. A popu- ciency is the ability to manufacture Deep insecurity is common among lar aphorism used by Chinese leaders leading-edge semiconductor chips. Chinese leaders, and understand- to explain their differences to western Most experts suggest that they are at able. After all, there have been very critics is “Remember, we are the sec- least a decade away from catching up few changes of emperor in Chinese ond generation in all the years of the with today’s chips. A leader in that history—over three millennia—that Chinese history that does not have to sector, is ironically, Taiwan. have not been violent. The history of worry about starvation or war…that the CCP itself is one of regular, often changes one’s perspective somewhat We face a multi-layered complexity in bloody factional battles. The years on what’s important, and how fast today’s strategic puzzle, with one lay- between Deng Xiaoping’s death and one can move.” er being economic, another military, Xi’s installation for life, only a few and a third managing China’s global In stark contrast to the authoritarian decades, are the only exception in a ambitions. Seen through the eyes of angst above them is the surging confi- century, delivering smooth changes a hardline PLA general, China’s stra- dence and creative optimism of more of leadership. tegic position is one of a nation dan- affluent, well-educated young Chinese gerously encircled by increasingly The response to the Wuhan coronavi- citizens than ever in the country’s his- well-armed neighbours who treat the rus is another example of an insecure tory. As you listen to young Chinese motherland with disrespect. After all, state’s management of a crisis: first business leaders brag about their plans Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Mongolia, Ka- denial and concealment, then partial to compete with the world ... to com- zakhstan, India, Burma, Malaysia, Sin- disclosure, followed by massive over- pete with the best, be victorious in gapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the reaction. Locking down 56 million of sports, electronic gaming, AI and on Philippines all regard China with in- your citizens and then bringing much and on, one cannot but be impressed creasing suspicion. of your economy to a standstill are by their dynamism.

Policy 9 They study abroad in the hundreds of Institute survey published late last national standards on basic human thousands and then maintain the in- year showed unfavourable views of rights. With our allies, this requires ternational friendships and networks the country had risen to 66 percent constant and vigorous pushback. they develop there. They are proud from 51 percent in 2018. The data also We must continue to press for the re- Chinese nationalists in many cases, reveal an increasing number of Cana- lease of our two hostages but resist the but equally at home in the world. It dians—70 percent—saying human temptation to tie their fate to China- will be interesting to watch the in- rights should be more important than U.S. relations, or China’s overall hu- evitable culture clash between their trade opportunities in Canada’s deal- man rights record. As one of the na- ebullient international confidence ings with China. tions determined to maintain an and the xenophobic suspicions of to- international order of agreed rules, we day’s party leaders. We have had prime may not always be able to take stands Canada has a long and deep connec- ministers from Pierre that serve immediate Canadian com- tion with the Chinese people, begin- Trudeau to Brian Mulroney mercial interests in China. Ensuring the safe return of the two Michaels is ning with doctors like Norman Bet- and Jean Chrétien who made hune and missionaries devoting their one of those occasions. lives to medical care and education— themselves globally respected and a mostly unsuccessful religious interlocutors with the or Canada now, our challenge is to encourage China to move conversion project. The relationship Chinese leadership. We back from the brink. To per- grew through massive wheat sales be- F dropped the ball badly under suade Beijing that its interests will gun by John Diefenbaker during some always be better served absent con- very hard years in China. It continued Stephen Harper, recovered frontation, and that the costs of con- through Pierre Trudeau’s courageous briefly with Justin Trudeau, frontation would probably be fatal step in granting diplomatic recogni- and are today at a deeper for the future of the CCP in power if tion to China half a century ago. We and more challenging they played out militarily. Laying out have had prime ministers from Pierre these benefits to the reputation and Trudeau to Brian Mulroney and Jean impasse than ever. status of China is not “going soft on Chrétien who made themselves glob- China.” It’s what is required to avoid ally respected interlocutors with the what Kissinger somberly intones as Chinese leadership. We dropped the “making the 21st century as tragic ball badly under Stephen Harper, re- and bloody as the one before.” covered briefly with Justin Trudeau, As intractable as the gap may seem and are today at a deeper and more between Beijing’s sabre rattling and In all our years of nimbly balanc- challenging impasse than ever. Canadian diplomacy, threatening to ing our relationship with the Sovi- punish China through sanctions or ets, the Chinese and other authori- s we learned in dealing with visa restrictions will not move Chi- tarian regimes, we know three things the equally insecure Leonid nese thinking. We need allies, not vol- to be true: quiet diplomacy can work, A Brezhnev and his successors, ume. Setting rules, establishing pro- megaphones can’t; that we need to of- leaders worried about their survival portionate consequences for breaking fer proof of the benefits that will flow do not respond well to public threats. them, especially when they happen in from the path we offer, as opposed to Pressure must be applied, but most ef- Canada, or to Canadians, is a must. the dramatically higher costs of con- fectively in private and with predict- We should learn from the Australians’ frontation; and finally, that we speak able regularity and determination. sad experience in this regard. with one voice along with our many All reports suggest that that is exactly Canada must wrestle with three kinds powerful allies. the path our new ambassador, Dom- of policy conundrum. In each case, Canada has shown great skill in build- inic Barton, is pursuing today as he whatever choices are made, they will ing coalitions to win peace and avoid struggles to find a path that could only be effective if their tools and conflict, even if it is only a violence- lead to the release of Michael Kovring goals are supported by a network of free frozen peace, in Suez, in Cyprus, and Michael Spavor in the face of the like-minded nations. We have our na- in South Africa and elsewhere. As continuing legal battles surrounding tional interests, we have our commer- China and the West move closer to Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou—quiet, cial interests and we have the defense confrontation, it’s again time we put relentless pressure. of the values of the international com- those special skills to use. While public opinion in China on the munity, of which we are a respected Contributing Writer Robin V. Sears, a captivity of the two Canadians and leader. The Chinese are attempting, principal of Earnscliffe Strategy Group in the ongoing conflict over Ms. Wan- however maladroitly, to change the Ottawa, lived and worked in Tokyo as zhou may be impossible to discern ac- post-war consensus on internation- Ontario’s Agent General for Asia for six curately, views of China among Cana- al values and law—most egregious- years, and later in the private sector in dians have changed. An Angus Reid ly with respect to honouring inter- Hong Kong for a further six years.

March/April 2020 10

The bodies of Ukrainian victims of the Iranian downing of Ukraine Airlines Flight 752 arriving at Kiev airport on January 19, 11 days after the tragedy also took the lives of 57 Canadian citizens and 29 permanent residents of Canada. The Presidential Office of Ukraine photo U.S.-Iran Relations: Lessons for Canada From the Ukraine Airlines Tragedy

The shoot-down of a Ukraine airlines flight that killed Dennis Horak 57 Canadians in January was the latest chapter in a de- he shoot-down of a Ukrainian cades-long legacy of U.S.-Iran tensions marked by tragedy. airlines flight outside Tehran T in January was a reminder of Canadians paid the heaviest price this time, but it high- how quickly and unpredictably ten- lighted the need for Canada to fully re-engage in the sions with Iran can tragically esca- late. Simmering hostilities between Persian Gulf, however difficult that might be. Dennis the United States and Iran were ig- Horak, former Canadian head of mission in Tehran and nited, took the region to the brink later ambassador to Saudi Arabia, shares exceptional in- and the outcome could have been catastrophic. The incident didn’t be- sights into the region and Canada’s role there. gin with the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani; nor are tensions likely to end with the subse- quent walk-back from the edge.

This is a decades-long conflict that shows no sign of being resolved. Both sides are driven by fundamen-

Policy 11 tally different conceptions of each other’s goals and motivations. That is unlikely to change. For Canada, the incident underscored the reality that what happens in the Persian Gulf can reverberate globally and highlighted the need to be better equipped to address those regional eventualities.

Iran’s missile launch against a civil- ian airliner in January was a tragedy with historic roots. The U.S.-Iran tensions that created the conditions for the attack have been a fact of life in the Gulf for decades. For Tehran, the story tracks back to Washington’s role in the overthrow of their elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mos- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Muhammad Javad Zarif sadegh, in 1953. For the Americans, on February 14 on the margins of the Munich Security Conference. Trudeau said they discussed compensation for victims’ surviving families back in Canada. Tehran Times photo the genesis was the hostage crisis in 1979-80. But whatever the origins, the U.S.-Iran conflict has produced a the next flare-up will occur—and the By all accounts, Iran was verifiably long and grim legacy marked by suc- January incidents may even have re- complying with the terms of the cessive catastrophes (including a pre- stored some level of deterrence—but agreement when Donald Trump de- vious shootdown of an Iranian civil- cided to the pull the plug. But for the ian airliner by the U.S. in 1988) and future incidents are a near certainty. administration, that was beside the sustained regional instability. point. The deal, in its view, was con- The latest chapter actually began in It’s hard to predict ceptually flawed. Its scope was too the summer of 2019, with the Iranian where or how the limited and one-sided in Iran’s fa- bombing of two oil tankers in the Per- next flare-up will occur— vour. The administration’s decision sian Gulf and an attack on a Saudi oil and the January incidents to withdraw and apply “maximum refinery. But it was the attack on an pressure” (which included enhanced Iraqi military base that killed an Amer- may even have restored sanctions) was aimed at forcing a ican contractor and wounded sever- some level of deterrence— weakened Iran back to the table to real U.S. service personnel that set the but future incidents are a open and expand the agreement. Iran key events in motion. Iran was wide- near certainty. rejected U.S. demands immediately. ly held responsible for these incidents. It relaunched previously restricted elements of its nuclear program and The death of an American was clear- stepped up its kinetic actions in the ly a red line for the U.S. and they region. The violent events in the Gulf responded with an unprecedented last summer were intended as a mes- assassination of a senior regime of- he proximate cause of the sage: If Iran could not sell its oil, they ficial—Soleimani. While the Iranian spike in violent incidents over had the ability prevent others from leadership promised a harsh response, the past several months can doing so, too. their retaliation—missile strikes on T be traced back to the Trump admin- two U.S. air bases in Iraq—was suffi- While Trump’s withdrawal from the ciently measured to allow both sides istration’s decision in May 2018 to JCPOA was clearly a spark for the re- to claim victory and climb back from walk away from the Joint Compre- cent flare-up, the JCPOA was never a the edge. Ironically, it was the cit- hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), launchpad for an era of U.S.-Iran dé- izens of a third country, Canada, commonly known as the Iran nu- tente and reconciliation. The JCPOA who suffered the most from the con- clear agreement. Signed in 2015, the was not meant to be a panacea. It was frontation when Iran shot down the deal essentially traded restrictions a limited agreement tied narrowly to Ukraine International Airlines flight on Iran’s nuclear program for lim- one specific item on a rather long list on January 8, killing 57 Canadians. ited sanctions relief. The agreement of Iran-related grievances. U.S. and The relatively quiet pause in hostili- was widely lauded for putting the regional concerns about Iran are driv- ties between Washington and Tehran Iran nuclear problem on the back en as much by Tehran’s support for since then is likely only a temporary burner, but it had its critics, particu- terrorism, its increasingly sophisti- lull. It’s hard to predict where or how larly among U.S. Republicans. cated missile program and, especial-

March/April 2020 12 ly, its destabilizing actions across the sense; it is a destabilizing influence in ttawa needs to learn from Middle East as they were by the nu- a fragile region. But pressure tactics the crisis and realize that Ca- clear program. Iran’s actions on these aimed at curtailing Iran’s regional ac- O nadian interests are best other files was uninterrupted during tivities or gutting its missile defenc- served by maintaining relations— the JCPOA period. Its decisive and es, while fomenting domestic unrest even uncomfortable ones—to be bloody intervention in Syria, its sus- to create bottom-up pressure on the ready to respond when things go tained manipulation of Iraqi politics leadership, only inflame irredentist badly. This is especially true in a re- for sectarian advantage, its continued fears and spawn Iranian responses gion as volatile and as populated support for Hezbollah and Hamas, its that can, as we have seen, quickly spi- with Canadians as the Gulf. There are backing of the Houthis in Yemen and ral out of control. There are no easy important obstacles to reopening in its unrelenting hostility to Israel were answers and the differences may, in Iran, with the Justice for Victims of unaffected by the nuclear agreement. fact, be irreconcilable. Terrorism Act being the principal bar- Washington’s provocative withdraw- rier. It would be irresponsible to real from the JCPOA and Iran’s reac- The government turn Canadian diplomats to Tehran tion to it added a dangerous layer of with the threat of further seizures of complexity to an already volatile re- managed the Iranian property in Canada under the gion, but it is was not the source of consular crisis stemming Act hanging over the relationship. the problem. from the shoot-down as well The risk of Iranian retaliation would as could be expected under be high given Tehran’s historical disrespect for diplomatic immunity. Re- he underlying issues run deep- the circumstances. But the er. At their core, U.S.-Iran ten- pairing ties with Saudi Arabia should T sions reflect entrenched per- absence of a Canadian be easier. It will require face-saving ceptions of their respective goals and diplomatic presence measures for both sides, but that is motivations. For the U.S., the Islamic undeniably complicated an what diplomats do—when they have Republic is an inherently destabiliz- already tragic and stressful the requisite political backing. ing and malevolent force in the Mid- Both moves will be challenging (and dle East; ideologically driven to un- situation for the families. some distance from the shootdown dermine U.S. interests and influence. will be needed to move forward with In their view, Iran’s desire to domi- Iran). Neither country is popular and nate the region through support for opposition to “rewarding” Riyadh sectarian proxies and terrorist groups and Tehran by normalizing ties will is a threat to U.S. assets and allies that So, where does Canada fit-in in all be fierce in some quarters. But it is must be countered. It is a perspective this? The short answer is, nowhere, worth the effort. widely shared in the region. really. Ottawa has been blind to what’s happening in Iran since the The Gulf is a difficult and often frus- For Tehran, the U.S. is a hostile power Embassy was closed in 2012 and it trating region. U.S.-Iran tensions (fed that is determined to overturn the Is- has been playing short-handed in by and involving regional players like lamic Revolution (as it has been from Saudi Arabia since the “tweet-storm” Saudi Arabia) will remain, but the in- the start) and restore the dominant in 2018 upended the bilateral rela- ternational community has an obli- role it had under the Shah. Opposi- tionship. These are the two key play- gation to try and moderate or manage tion and resistance to the U.S. was ers (with the U.S.) in the region and them. As the January events demon- (and remains) a pillar of the Revolu- Canada has no relations with one strated, the brink is never far off and tion and it informs the views of the and strained links with the other. But the impact of tumbling over it will Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khame- the tragic events in January vividly reverberate widely and, likely, tragi- nei (the only person in the country underscored the fact that Canada can cally. If Canada fancy’s itself as an whose views really matter). For the no longer afford to pretend that what important international player—wor- regime, Iran’s cultivation of region- happens in the Gulf stays in the Gulf. thy of G7, G20 and, even UN Securi- al allies and influence and its efforts The Gulf matters and it can come up ty Council membership—it would do to confront Washington’s regional and bite you in ways you can’t al- well to position itself to act the part “puppets” and, ultimately, drive the ways imagine. The government man- in a region with such broad and chal- U.S. from the region are defensive aged the consular crisis stemming lenging risks. measures designed to safeguard the from the shoot-down as well as could Revolution and Iranian security. Dennis Horak was Canada’s be expected under the circumstances. ambassador to Saudi Arabia from Finding a way around these percep- But the absence of a Canadian diplo- 2015-18 and head of mission/chargé tions and the behaviours they gener- matic presence undeniably compli- d’affaires in Iran from 2009-12. ate will be tough. They are self-rein- cated an already tragic and stressful He retired in 2018 after a 31-year forcing. Containing Iran does make situation for the families. diplomatic career.

Policy 13

Letter From Davos: A POWERFUL TELESCOPE INTO THE FUTURE

Every year, when the world’s most politically and economi- ed by several decades in age, but united by their determination and com- cally engaged leaders gather in Davos for the annual World mitment to save our planet. Economic Forum meeting, there is a Canadian contingent The objective of creating a carbon working the hallways and gracing the panels. Since 2016, neutral future was discussed in a ses- Suzanne Fortier, Principal and Vice-Chancellor of McGill sion that reported the disturbing sta- tistic that only 33 percent of primary University, has been part of that contingent. She shares energy is converted into useful energy her experience and takeaways from the 2020 event. for transport, industry and buildings. Industry leaders on the panel not only validated the figure but also promoted Suzanne Fortier meeting was to carve my own Davos. realizing greater efficiency, particular- The meeting’s program, with its rich ly given that technologies required to s head of an international and diverse choice of sessions, gives do so are already available. university, I am privileged to each participant the opportunity to A have stimulating conversa- have a unique “personalized” Davos A greater recognition tions every day, whether with stu- experience. dents, researchers, partners, or col- among investors leagues from around the world. The y Davos journey this year that climate risk is discussions held at the World Eco- included topics that piqued investment risk was evident, nomic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting M my interest such as listen- as was their anticipation in Davos are ones I especially look ing to Yo-Yo Ma talk about the pow- forward to, as I believe that this gather of narratives, the annual session of a fundamental reshaping ering of global stakeholders is a pow- on the Global Economic Outlook and of finance. erful telescope into the future. a presentation on the recent claim of quantum supremacy. The majority I first began attending the WEF An- of my time, however, was devoted to nual Davos Meetings back in 2016, topics that are much discussed at Mc- The release of BlackRock’s annual let- and while every meeting is thought- Gill. I had the chance to participate ter to CEOs, a few weeks ahead of the provoking, they are also very differ- on panels that covered important meeting, and its observations on client from one year to the next, reflect- subjects such as education, of course, mate change resonated throughout ing the main agenda items on the but also addressed mental health is- the meeting. A greater recognition global scene. sues, steps for increasing social inclu- among investors that climate risk is sion, and the future of work. The 2020 Annual Meeting was the investment risk was evident, as was 50th anniversary of the establishment Most would agree that climate change their anticipation of a fundamental of the WEF and capped off a year that was at the forefront of discussions at reshaping of finance. was marked by social, economic, and Davos. Very few attendees, if any, de- The Striking a Green “New Deal” ses- geopolitical turmoil with rapidly shift- nied that this was a pressing and ur- sion brought together politicians who ing realities. We saw flare-ups in for- gent issue concerning us all. But what discussed “new deal” agreements that eign relations, civil uprisings and was most interesting was to hear voic- link goals to combat climate change, clashes with governments, uncertain- es from so many different roles and social justice reforms and econom- ty about the future of the planet, and, perspectives all gathered in one place. most recently, the spread of a life- ic development. They acknowledged threatening health epidemic. We heard the voices of activists, from the challenge of bringing people on Greta Thunberg to Jane Goodall, two board in the transition to a greener Some wise advice I received be- people featured on TIME’s 2019 list of future. While there may be buy-in fore attending my first WEF annual the most influential people—separat- on the importance of addressing cli-

March/April 2020 14 al issues that have prevented people in the past from fully participating in society. Sessions such as The Big Picture on Mental Health, The Future of Good Work, The Reality of Racial Bias, Free to Be (LGBTI) and Disability Inclusion are good examples of the deep connec- tions between the WEF and the key issues of today’s world, and its commitment to promoting social inclusion. While the annual meeting certainly does not disappoint when it comes to the different offerings within the official program, conversations outside of the session are equally interesting. Davos brings together thousands of people who each contribute their different views, experiences, and ideas. For me, the ones who always stand out at the meetings are the partici- McGill Principal and Vice-Chancellor Suzanne Fortier at the World Economic Forum in January. A member of the Canadian contingent at Davos since 2016, she’s now also Chair of the WEF’s pants from the Global Shapers Com- Global University Leaders’ Forum, a role she says enhances McGill’s learning environment as one munity. Their creativity, talent and that “responds to the needs of our world.” World Economic Forum photo commitment, as well as their bound- less energy, give me confidence that mate change, it is far more difficult to Lifelong learning and they are well equipped to take on the achieve agreement on solutions that challenges we are facing now and will require important lifestyle changes. the opportunities for face in the future. They truly represent reskilling and upskilling are the WEF’s motto to be “Committed to wo other topics that have been now seen as an essential Improving the State of the World.” recurring at Davos since I be- What happens now that the meet- gan attending are education element of social inclusion, T ing has come to a close and the Al- and the future of jobs. What stood as is giving children from the pine town has regained its tranquili- out this year, in particular, was their earliest stages of life learning ty? As someone who has the privilege close integration with social inclu- content and experiences of being part of the WEF stakeholder sion through the common Platform for community, I have reflected on this Shaping the Future of the New Economy geared toward the needs of question. Having access to this great and Society. In fact, one of the seven the future. “telescope into the future,” how can themes for this year’s meeting was In- each of us use it for the benefit of our vesting in Human Capital for Inclu- own community? For me, it starts with sive Societies. Two reports were re- using what I learn at Davos at my own leased during the annual meeting, social inclusion, as is giving children university and in my own community which were of particular importance from the earliest stages of life learning to build a learning environment that to me: Jobs of Tomorrow and Schools content and experiences geared to- responds to the needs of our world, of the Future, both rethinking the fu- ward the needs of the future. Learning and equips learners to shape its future ture within the context of the Fourth 4.0 was brought to life through high- and take on the challenges we face, Industrial Revolution. The Jobs of To- lighting examples of 16 innovative whether climate change, health cri- morrow report looks at what profes- schools, systems and initiatives from ses or other issues that may await. Us- sions might emerge in the future, and around the world, while the launch of ing the words of the WEF, I hope to what skills will be required to success- the WEF Reskilling Revolution Platform, give members of the McGill commu- fully fill them, while theSchools of the nity the opportunity to be local and Future looks at how education systems bringing stakeholders together around global shapers. need to realign with the realities and the ambitious goal to “provide better needs of evolving societies, and stress- jobs, education, and skills to 1 billion Professor Suzanne Fortier is the es the need for new education models. people in the next 10 years,” set the Principal and Vice-Chancellor of McGill path to lifelong learning. University. In 2016, she was appointed Lifelong learning and the opportuni- to the World Economic Forum’s Global ties for reskilling and upskilling are The theme of Investing in Human Capi- University Leaders Forum (GULF). She now seen as an essential element of tal for Inclusive Societies discussed sever- was appointed Chair of GULF in 2019.

Policy 15

Australia: Ground Zero of Climate Politics

At a time when the toll of climate change is becoming force of going from 280ppm to over 400ppm in a cosmic blink of an eye increasingly apparent in both human and economic costs, should get peoples’ attention. recent events have also revealed the role corruption plays No scientist will hazard a guess as to in the policy intractability around the issue. In Australia, when “too late” really is. But we do where unprecedented bushfires have galvanized attention know with certainty that with ev- on the issue, the revolving door from fossil fuel lobbying ery increase in the concentrations of CO2, we are worsening the odds to politics and back to the industry rewards denial and that human civilization will remain stymies progress. functional to the end of this century. We are gambling. We won’t beat the house.

The big danger is unleashing some- Donald Trump make even those cli- Elizabeth May thing referred to as “hot house Earth” mate pretenders look good. he Australian bushfire storms or runaway global warming. The risk may yet prove to be a tipping We really do need to understand just is from “positive feedback loops.” The point in global climate con- a little basic climate science. Beyond carbon we put into the atmosphere T the confusing political babble of per- sciousness. Or, like the images of sets in motion natural events which Hurricane Katrina (when we thought centage cuts and shifting base years, themselves put more carbon into the that changed everything), or the sat- there are some absolutes, things atmosphere, and so we accelerate the ellite images of disappearing Arctic we know with certainty. We know whole process. ice, the modern human family may (thanks to the analysis of air bubbles just turn the page to the next big sto- in Antarctic ice cores) that over near- ry. As I write this, that next big story ly the last million years atmospher- No scientist will is the coronavirus. ic CO2 never exceeded 280 parts per hazard a guess as to million. We know that atmospheric when “too late” really is. But But it is worth considering: the koala concentrations of carbon dioxide are bears and their burned paws, the sil- now well above 400 ppm. We know we do know with certainty houette of the leaping kangaroo with that we’ve forced these changes— that with every increase in a backdrop of the inferno, the torna- slowly since the beginning of the In- the concentrations of CO2, do cloud made of flame—these imag- dustrial Revolution and rapidly in the we are worsening the odds es might just save us. last half of the 20th century. that human civilization will We are perilously near other “tipping In cold periods, the ice ages, there remain functional to the end points”—the real and irreversible was far less carbon dioxide inside the of this century. We are ones that represent an atmospheric little bubble of our atmosphere (Carl point of no return. Still, our climate Sagan once compared it to a layer of gambling. We won’t beat discourse is remarkably soporific and saran wrap around a basketball), but the house. sophomoric. Politicians around the there were trace amounts, enough to world (at least, those who claim to keep the planet warm enough for hu- want climate action) talk of “meeting man life to take hold. But even in the our Paris targets,” without knowing warmest periods, of tropical jungles what they are or understanding what at the poles, it never went above 280 they would mean. And, of course, ppm. When one considers that nar- Positive feedback loops come, for ex- global bullies like Brazilian President row band of atmospheric CO2 over ample, from melting permafrost that Jair Bolsonaro and U.S. President a million years of earth’s history, the releases methane that warms the at-

March/April 2020 16 mals, destroyed 2,000 homes, burned 18 million acres, and hit the Austra- lian economy hard. Yet, Australia, like Canada, is one of the world’s worst performers in climate action. Australia, Canada, Sau- di Arabia and the United States are ranked the lowest in the industrialized world in terms of real climate action. I have to believe—because I refuse to accept an unlivable world for my grandchildren—that humanity is on the verge of a massive economic shift to reject fossil fuels. So, it is sobering to read what Tim Flannery thinks Aus- tralia’s political leadership will do, again in the New York Review of Books:

“A significant minority of federal conservative politicians are climate change deniers, as well as part of the ‘revolving door’ system of Australian politics— Fires and smoke engulf Southeastern Australia, January 4, 2020. NASA Earth Observatory image by whereby politicians enter as lob- Joshua Stevens. byists for the fossil-fuel industry, emerge as government ministers, mosphere that melts the permafrost leased massively more carbon diox- and then exit politics to become and so on, from forest fires releasing ide, while leading to Beijing-like air directors of fossil-fuel companies. CO2 that warms the atmosphere that quality in Victoria—far from the fires. dries the forest, and so on; from Arc- “I’m fairly certain that Australia’s The fires in Australia in the 2019- tic ice melting away and reflecting bushfire crisis will not change this 2020 season were also caused by the less sunlight and making the oceans system. The next federal election hot dry conditions. Australian scien- warmer and melting more ice, and so is two and a half years away, and tists have been warning of more for- on. And so, on and on. The big tip- there’s just too much self-interest fires due to global warming for ping point is unleashing self-acceler- est—too much money to be made years. Leading Australian scientist Dr. ating, unstoppable warming. pandering to the fossil-fuel in- Tim Flannery, author of the global dustry—even if the cost of it is to 2005 best-seller The Weather Makers, send the country up in smoke.” ritish Columbia’s forests offer wrote recently: a key example of economic Similarly, most Canadian media “The first scientific report warning loss and damage from two pos- pundits see nothing wrong with the B of an increase in dangerous fires itive feedback loop events. The first, prospect of the Trudeau adminis- was published in 1985. Austra- the pine beetle epidemic, killed an tration spending billions in public lia’s Climate Council (for which area of forest as large as New England. funds to build a new pipeline. The I’m the chief councillor) has pub- Before the climate crisis, a cold snap new price tag on the Trans Mountain lished eleven reports over the past in winter would have knocked out Expansion (TMX) is over $12.6 bil- six years warning of the increas- burgeoning beetle populations. So, a lion, up from $5.4 billion, in addi- ing danger of bushfires as fire in- warming world led to the epidemic, tion to the $4.5 billion Ottawa paid tensity strengthens and the fire which itself left standing dead trees— in 2018 to acquire the existing pipe- season gets longer,” he wrote in line and route from Kinder Morgan. which in positive feedback loop fash- the mid-January issue of the bi- ion released more carbon one year weekly New York Review of Books. We are operating in a fog. Or maybe than all human activity in B.C. it’s just the smoke. Perhaps the light This year’s fires have emitted more from the fires of Australia may finally Feedback loop zinger-number-two than 250 megatonnes of carbon to help us see things clearly. was that the dead trees became stand- the atmosphere, roughly half of the ing and fallen fuel. Hot dry summers total amount of Australia’s emissions Contributing Writer Elizabeth led to the tinder dry conditions for in 2018. And, of course, they killed at May, MP, is leader of the Green the extraordinary fire seasons that re- least 24 people and millions of ani- Parliamentary Caucus.

Policy 17

The Conservative Race The Road to Toronto: Pathway to Power

Once the Conservative Party picks a new leader in To- off over the succession formula for future leadership elections. Many from ronto on June 27, it will need a plan to leverage that indi- the Reform side of the family argued vidual’s strengths to make inroads in the Greater Toronto for one-member-one-vote, with the Area if it aims to seriously contest the next election. As idea that party members should be treated equally, and nobody should longtime Conservative strategist Yaroslav Baran writes, be either under- or over-franchised Toronto likes to vote for nationally viable contenders who because of where in the country they live. Most from the PC side favoured have a plausible Quebec strategy. a one-riding-one-vote system, fearing that mile-deep support in just a few areas—say, a combination of Calgary, Surrey and Brampton—could control the fate of the entire party. (For per- Yaroslav Baran Yet we want our politics to be more spective, at the time, MP Art Hanger than this. had more party members in his rid- he Conservative Party of Cana- One of the great ironies of the 2019 ing of Calgary North-East than all of da is in the midst of a leader- election is that the Ontario provin- Atlantic Canada combined.) ship campaign. That is Act T cial election a year earlier proved To- The latter approach won out. Inter- One. But selecting a leader is not the ronto is winnable for the Blues: the estingly, the primary champion of only critical job at hand. Act Two is provincial PCs took half the seats in the riding equality formula was Peter establishing a tactical roadmap for “416”—the City of Toronto itself— MacKay—perhaps in prescient antici- the federal Tories to finally crack To- with 11 of 25 seats, and nearly swept pation of his present challenge. ronto and mine its wealth of seats to the urban “905 belt” that arcs around build a caucus large enough to form MacKay’s rationale for this formula the city proper with another 21 out government. While no prescriptions was not just a fear of one faction of of 25 seats. Torontonians are capable are absolute in politics, on a practical the party swamping the rest, but also, of voting Conservative. level it is ultimately not feasible for importantly, a conviction that a party striving for stable and long-term the Conservatives to win government n contrast, the federal Tories won winnability must appeal to all parts without Fortress Toronto. no seats in the City of Toron- of Canada. Some federal Conservative tacticians I to in 2019, and lost seats in the try to write the region off, seeing it 905. Yet, Andrew Scheer should have Indeed, the difference between a national party and a regional party is as a political dead zone for the party, had the additional advantage of not made precisely of this stuff. To be arguing campaign resources are bet- being Doug Ford—he didn’t carry the clear, regional parties are capable of ter spent squeezing out the remain- personal baggage of a sometimes a quick and aggressive rise to promi- ing isolated swing ridings that still bombastic premier whose numbers nence, but history shows they tend went Red last year in more fertile re- have slumped in the last year. So, To- also to be short-lived. Long-term via- gions of the country. How do you do ronto is possible; there’s no excuse for bility resides with national parties that that? Concentrate on a combination not doing better; but the question re- seek to represent the entire country. of demographic microtargeting (to mains: how? boost Conservative votes) and “op- In 2005, when the newly-reunited o, how to crack Toronto for the position research” (to suppress Liber- Conservative Party of Canada held federal Conservatives? For start- al votes). That means more small-fry its first policy convention, the single S ers, demographics matter. While boutique policy and more negative biggest issue of contention in the par- no longer completely fair, the stereo- campaigning. ty constitutional debates was a stand- type of the Tory politician is distinct-

March/April 2020 18 ly old, rural, born here, and white. In imilarly, economic policy needs contrast, the profile of the successful to be reimagined. Sophisticat- Ontario Tories in 2018 reflected the S ed voters will need a smart- face of today’s Toronto: young, urban er message than simply, “Never met and diverse. Consequently, so was its a tax that done nothin’ good!” We voter base. need to see an industrial development Aggressive outreach to these commu- policy that addresses the post-heavy- nities will also be critical. The notable manufacturing economy, that bol- difference between the 2008 and the sters the knowledge economy, that 2011 federal elections (which saw the works to retain skilled workers and at- Conservatives make the transition tract the brightest minds from around from minority to majority govern- the globe, that promotes and fosters ment) was the maturation of a thor- patent commercialization and start- ough and earnest cultural outreach up success here at home, and that at- campaign, largely headed up by now- tracts foreign direct investment. And Alberta Premier Jason Kenney. In the then there are critical urban issues like 2011 election the road to a Conser- transit infrastructure, congestion and vative majority ran right through the home affordability. Urban voters are Greater Toronto Area, with the Tories yearning to hear solutions. winning 21 of 22 seats in 905, and Frontrunner Peter MacKay brings strong moderate credentials that matter in the Greater Finally, critically, the bugbears that nine out of 23 in 416. Toronto Area, which holds the keys to the kingdom of power for the Conservatives. plagued the 2019 Scheer election Quebec is also something of a back Korona Lacasse Flickr photo must be strenuously avoided. Any door to Toronto. Toronto voters, at hint of unease with LGBTQ rights the federal level, tend to be far more A strong climate policy is a must. Ur- will be noticed and will go over like a likely to cast a ballot for a party if they ban voters, young voters, will reject a lead balloon with the voters of Can- see it as Quebec-friendly. In an inter- party that either ignores or pays mere ada’s metropolis. Similarly, there can esting quirk of history, Ontarians— lip-service to one of the most urgent be no signal that abortion policy will and predominantly Torontonians issues of our age. The Tories’ next cli- be reopened, either directly or indi- and Ottawans—have come to see mate policy must not only be solid, rectly. The bar is high for Conserva- themselves as the arbiters of what is it must be talked about by the party— tives in this policy space, and the new “acceptable” from a vantage point of not a box ticked (“Yep, we have a cli- leader will need to send a clear signal national unity. Any political option mate policy! Next?”), but an impor- that these matters are closed. seen as anti-Quebec, Toronto will re- tant feature of the platform. ject as unviable. That means strong It is almost certain that the victor Quebec candidates, a new leader who Environmental policy, writ large, of- of the leadership race will be some- quickly masters l’autre langue offici- fers an enormous opportunity for the one who already resides in the GTA. elle, and a significant focus on Que- Tories. Conservative governments That’s a start. But that leader will bec during the election period. have a strong legacy of achievement have to lead—to actively demonstrate in air, land and water protection and that federal Conservatives are not po- hen there is the overall ques- remediation. You can look this up litical aliens to the sensibilities and tion of party policy and the under “Mulroney, Brian”. realities of Canada’s largest, most di- T next election platform. To pen- Justice policy can be discussed from verse and fastest-growing city. etrate not only Toronto, but also Van- a conservative perspective, and need couver and Montreal, the policy must This means a new and modern vi- not have a hang-em-high conno- sion of conservatism for Canada— be a retooled and modernized expres- tation. How will we deal with im- sion of 21st-century conservatism. one that looks, sounds and cares like paired driving in a legalized cannabis the city it wants to win over, one that world? How will we deal with gangs As table-stakes advice, the party needs is true to its core principles, but has to continue to steer clear of the al- and guns in Toronto? How do we ap- adapted them to an urban Canada of lure of populism that has lured other ply preventive measures in the policy the 21st century. countries’ conservative movements mix, to avoid having to deal with in- into its short-term-gain embrace. In dividuals through the criminal justice Contributing Writer Yaroslav Baran, most cases, populist conservatism system? These questions, on the fore- Managing Principal of the Earnscliffe brings with it an ugly underbelly of front of Toronto voters’ minds, are Strategy Group in Ottawa, was intolerance. Canada’s conservative natural winners for Conservatives— communications director of Stephen culture is a rare strain that has avoid- provided the policy is sufficiently so- Harper’s 2004 leadership campaign, ed the populist trap, and we should phisticated, and the communication and ran party communications in the keep it that way. sufficiently articulate. next three elections.

Policy 19

The Conservative Leadership: Waiting for Content

There was a time when being the leader of one of tious events in its early stages. The shooting down of Flight 752 on Janu- Canada’s two alternating governing parties was seen as ary 8 by Iran, killing all 176 aboard, a gig desirable enough to obsess the otherwise rational including 57 Canadians, the world- and foment epic, Shakespearean rivalries. Now, it seems, wide coronavirus outbreak, the Wet’suet’en-inspired blockades of the many qualified candidates are finding better things to do. rail system and Teck Resources Lim- Veteran Conservative strategist and Earnscliffe Principal ited’s withdrawal of the Pioneer mine proposal all provided cover for the Geoff Norquay looks at a field eerily absent of presumed sputtering beginning of the contest. contenders and analyzes the state of play. ith the party’s February 27 deadline for potential can- W didates to enter the race Geoff Norquay following the 2015 election, having been reached, the battle has was the next to say “no,” citing been seriously joined by three main s the Conservative leadership contentment with her post-politics contenders. race kicked off over the first life back in Alberta. month of 2020, the party A • Pierre Poilievre, the youngest of Politics at the level produced a close approximation to the serious contenders and an the proverbial dog that catches the of leader has accomplished question period car and doesn’t know what to do always been a brutal sport warrior, gave the leadership a pass, with it. In the wake of last fall’s di- too, in favour of his young family. in Canada, but with the sastrous election campaign, Conser- advent of social media and vatives were broadly agreed on the In a three-day period, the leader- future of Andrew Scheer. As to who ship race was deprived of: Charest’s the prospect of subjecting might run to succeed him, that was broad experience, leadership skills one’s family to its toxic another question. and knowledge of the federation; abusers and trolls, fewer Ambrose’s centrist appeal, sensitiv- Initially, there was no end of “per- experienced people are ity to the climate change file and fect” candidates topping the wish- willing to make the bridge-building skills to Alberta; and lists of party members, but between Poilievre’s youthful enthusiasm and leadership leap. January 21 and 23, three heavy- hard edge. weights, all with a decent chance of winning, demurred: There was likely another factor that • Jean Charest was the first, helped scare candidates off. Politics at the level of leader has always been a noting that the party had As leader of the Progressive Conser- brutal sport in Canada, but with the changed significantly since his vative Party in 2003, Peter MacKay advent of social media and the pros- days of leading the Progressive played a pivotal role in creating the pect of subjecting one’s family to its Conservatives back from the new Conservative Party of Canada. toxic abusers and trolls, fewer experi- debacle of 1993 and acknowledging MacKay, and then-Canadian Alliance enced people are willing to make the he would face an uphill battle in leader Stephen Harper, agreed that leadership leap. Who needs the ag- reintroducing himself to today’s their two parties had reached a stale- gravation? Not John Baird, who also Conservatives. mate, and that as long as the “con- stood down from consideration. • Rona Ambrose, universally credited servative family” was divided, the with being a brilliant interim leader The slow start to the leadership race Liberals would continue to rule the after Stephen Harper resigned was upstaged by tragic and conten- country indefinitely. It took a signifi-

March/April 2020 20 cant amount of courage on MacKay’s • Derek Sloan, MP for the eastern ment with climate change action—are part to lead his party into the merg- Ontario riding of Hastings-Lennox rapidly overtaking the tried and true er, particularly since it inevitably cost and Addington, who was first policy positions of all parties. Each him the leadership. In the Harper gov- elected in 2019; side in the resource development-cli- ernment, MacKay served in three key • Rick Peterson, a Calgary venture mate change debate has contributed portfolios: Foreign Affairs, National capitalist who placed 12th in the to an atmosphere of distrust between Defence and Justice. Since 2016, he 2017 leadership race; the federal government and Alberta. has been a partner in the Toronto law • Leslyn Lewis, a Toronto lawyer and firm of Baker McKenzie. When the federal government soon defeated candidate in Toronto’s reveals its plan to take the econo- Scarborough-Rouge Park in the my to net-zero emissions by 2050, For a party that 2015 election; and it will be easy for the Conservatives • Rudy Husny, a young Harper-era to criticize, but where are their alter- desperately needs to staffer who was Trade Minister Ed natives? All that’s been put in the offer a new take on a host of Fast’s press secretary and ran twice window so far by the candidates is a policies, the race so far has against NDP leader Tom Mulcair in doubling down on repealing the fed- been uninspiring; in fact, it’s Outremont, in 2015 and 2019. eral carbon pricing regime. But that positioning is so 2019 and the issues been little more than a Richard Décarie, who earlier stirred facing the country today are much contest of small differences. controversy when he stated earlier more fundamental. It was the lack of that LGBTQ was a “Liberal term” and a credible climate change policy that that being gay is a “choice,” was de- resulted in the party being virtually nied candidate status. shut out in the last election in southern Ontario and in most big cities or a party that desperately needs across the country. Erin O’Toole was first elected to the to offer a new take on a host of House of Commons in the southern F policies, the race so far has been Ontario riding of Durham in a by-elec- uninspiring; in fact, it’s been little Each side in the tion in November 2012. Prior to poli- more than a contest of small differ- resource tics, he graduated from the Royal Mili- ences. The initial appeals of the can- development-climate change tary College and served 15 years in the didates have been directed inward Royal Canadian Air Force. Leaving the towards party members and largely debate has contributed to an forces in 2000, he studied law at Dal- aimed at establishing Conservative atmosphere of distrust housie and then practised in Toron- bona fides. between the federal to before entering Parliament. In the Reacting to the unexpected non- government and Alberta. Harper government, he served as Min- candidacy of Pierre Poilievre, Erin ister of Veterans’ Affairs in 2015. In O’Toole has sought to position him- the 2017 leadership, he placed third behind Scheer and Maxime Bernier. self as the “true blue” conservative candidate in a play to cement the Before politics, Marilyn Gladu had support of party members who were The Prime Minister has failed to de- a career as a chemical engineer with inclined towards Poilievre. O’Toole liver on his promise to simultane- Dow Chemical, Suncor and the mul- is also attempting to wedge MacKay, ously restrain GHG emissions while tinational consulting company Wor- depicting him as too centrist. Marilyn allowing predictable resource devel- leyParsons. She was first elected for Gladu has initially tried to position opment. With that middle-ground Sarnia-Lambton in 2015 and re- herself as the newcomer, able to build turned to quicksand, what better elected in 2019. In 2016, Gladu was the party out and expand its base in time for Conservatives to open a dis- cited by Maclean’s as the most col- directions that MacKay and O’Toole cussion on alternatives? legial MP “who consistently works are unable to imagine. Hopefully, this across party lines.” is all pre-positioning and the candi- Perhaps the upcoming leadership dates will soon turn to more substan- debates in Toronto and Montreal in Five additional candidates were given tive policy discussions. April will provide some answers. the green light by the party’s Lead- Contributing Writer Geoff Norquay, ership Election Organizing Commit- The reality is that the events of the a Principal of Earnscliffe Strategy Group tee following the February 27th filing last month—the Indigenous protests, in Ottawa, was senior adviser on social deadline: Teck’s withdrawal of the proposal to policy to Prime Minister Mulroney and • Jim Karahalios, an anti-carbon tax build the Frontier project and the im- later communications director in the activist and a perennial critic of the plosion of the Prime Minister’s at- Official Opposition Leader’s office of Ontario PC party establishment; tempts to square resource develop- Stephen Harper.

Policy 21

Party Members Don’t Pick Leaders, and They Should

Leadership conventions in Canada were once a climactic, In 1919, the Liberals inaugurated leadership selection by delegated conven- integral part of a political party’s cyclical renewal and po- tion, electing Mackenzie King that litical zeitgeist footprint. They were sometimes bloodbaths way. Other parties soon copied this and often left wounds that lasted a generation. The systems model. There is much to be said for this system. First, it was fun, provid- that replaced them have lessened the risks of internecine ing several generations of Canadians warfare but increased those of outsider hacking and the with exciting political spectacles, such as the 1968 Liberal Trudeau conven- disenfranchisement of loyal supporters and elected repre- tion and the 1983 Conservative Mul- sentatives. Former New Democratic Party president Brian roney one. More important, as long Topp has some solutions. as the delegates participating in these conventions were really “delegates”— i.e., well-respected local party members who had been elected by their fel- Brian Topp Australian leadership arguably re- low members to represent their views assures us that Canadians made the and then to use their best judgment— s I write, the Democratic cau- right call in abandoning caucus lead- then those conventions were exam- cuses in Iowa have just disinte- ership selection. ples of party democracy working well. A grated into farce. And all across Canada, Canadians were no For the first century leadership convention could doubt thanking their lucky stars that become a true deliberative as- our country does not labour under or so of Canada’s A sembly, in which the party’s the dysfunctional mess-by-design that history of responsible most engaged activists met to collec- is U.S. presidential politics. But as on government, leadership tively discuss what kind of party they many other files, we should not be too elections were wanted to be and whom they wanted smug. The Conservative Party of Can- to incarnate it. We have seen this at ada’s 2020 leadership race reminds straightforward matters. work quite recently. The Ontario Lib- us that our major political parties all MPs picked leaders from eral Party changed its mind after hear- struggle with leadership selection sys- their own ranks. ing out the candidates, set aside front- tems that also, in their own ways, dis- runner Sandra Pupatello, and named empower their party members and Kathleen Wynne as leader and pre- their elected parliamentary caucuses. mier of Ontario in 2013 because she impressed them more and spoke to We can, I submit, do better. As the regular defenestration of Aus- their values better. However, delegat- First, let’s discuss how we got here, tralian leaders—even when they’ve re- ed conventions in all parties drifted and what I mean when I say that all cently won general elections—dem- far away from this. our current systems disempower their onstrates, parties aren’t governed well This occurred because well-fund- members and elected representatives. by leadership systems that are exclu- ed and professionally-led leadership For the first century or so of Canada’s sively in the control of elected MPs. campaign teams reached around local history of responsible government, Senior front bench MPs want to be party democracy and flooded the del- leadership elections were straight- leader. If they are operating in a sys- egate-selection process with instant forward matters. MPs picked lead- tem in which they can simply plot “members” and slates of candidates ers from their own ranks. In light of among fellow MPs to replace the in- for delegate spots. Instead of a delib- what has followed, we might wonder cumbent with themselves, they will. erative process, delegated conventions whether it was wise to abandon this We probably don’t need that kind of became local organizing and fundrais- model. The revolving door of recent permanent instability here. ing tests—still exciting and fun, but

March/April 2020 22 destructive to the value of member- cruited for one minute in order to ship. Caucuses of MPs, meanwhile, be- vote would stay, become full mem- came essentially irrelevant to the pro- bers, and thus grow the party’s mem- cess—and were then handed a leader bership and fundraising base. But they might or might not wish to work there is no evidence that this ever oc- with. One-member-one-vote voting curs. They don’t stay, generally speak- systems—widely adopted by Canadi- ing, and they don’t become contribu- an political parties in the 1990s and tors. So, the bargain—disempowering 2000s—were supposed to cure these party members and the parliamentary problems. Members would be re-em- caucus in return for growing the list of powered by being given a direct vote. members and its financial resources— has failed and will probably continue This has not turned out to be the case to do so. under the model adopted by most Conservative parties, which weighs votes by riding. The idea here is that each riding is worth 100 points, and S o, what’s the solution? the members in that riding vote First, I suggest that leadership can- their 100 points—giving candidates a didates should require nominations strong incentive, it is argued, to cam- from elected federal MPs or provin- paign across the country. What it ac- cial MLAs. That’s how the British La- tually does is give candidates a strong bour Party does it (the U.K. Tories go incentive to organize ridings where a little further and use their caucus to Michael Wilson (R) and Peter Pocklington the party is weakest, since very small (C) together moved to Brian Mulroney after narrow the ballot down to two final- numbers of members have the same the first ballot at the Progressive Conservative ists). In the result, what elected people weight in this system as ridings with leadership convention in Ottawa on June 11, 1983. It was a delegated convention, with think would matter again. The pro- thousands of members. Medicine Hat Mulroney winning on the fourth ballot. cess of obtaining their support would might have 5,000 Tory members. Ar- Colin McConnell, Toronto Star Photograph Archive, Courtesy of Toronto Public Library provide some free publicity for leader- genteuil might have, say, 25 mem- ship candidates, while putting elected bers who happen to be regulated milk caucuses at the heart of the leadership farmers and social conservative issue- for one minute, while they vote— process. More of the time than cur- voters. Both ridings are worth the from outside of the party. That is, for rently, no-hope and distraction can- same number of leadership votes in example, how Ujjal Dosanjh won the didates would be screened out. And the CPC race. leadership of the B.C. NDP, so that he more of the time than currently, so could then preside over the annihila- would individuals known by their col- rganizing weak ridings is how tion of that party’s caucus before be- leagues to have dysfunctional person- Christy Clark became leader coming a Liberal. alities or issues of conduct that make Oof the B.C. Liberals, and how them poor candidates for leader, even Doug Ford became leader of the On- if they speak well on television. tario Conservatives. You could aim The merit of a pure In federalized Canada, and in a first- a utilitarian argument at this—Clark one-member-one- past-the-post electoral system that and Ford played smart, and both then vote system is that every often elects very modest numbers of went on to win their elections. But federal NDP MPs with large gaps in its party members and caucuses aren’t at member’s vote is equal and regional representation, I suggest that the heart of this system and that is, I equally valued. But as endorsements from 20 MPs or provin- submit, ultimately destructive to po- practised in the NDP, this cial MLAs be required. Arguably, you litical parties. model has simply reimported could go a step further, in the NDP, Members also weren’t re-empowered the worst problems of and add federal council members to by the pure one-member-one-vote sys- traditional delegate this list of potential nominators. The tem widely adopted in the NDP. The Canadian Tories are currently trying merit of a pure one-member-one-vote selection elections into one to get to the same outcome with a system is that every member’s vote is big vote. $300,000 entry fee. But Canadian po- equal and equally valued. But as prac- litical parties should get money and tised in the NDP, this model has sim- brute-force organizing out of leader- ply reimported the worst problems of ship races. Let the elected caucuses do traditional delegate selection elections the initial political vetting with their into one big vote. The ballot is wide- The benefit of this system was sup- best judgment, instead of leaving it to open to instant members, recruited— posed to be that instant members re- party bagpersons.

Policy 23 Secondly, to vote, members should in, and then to join a cross-Canada have been a full member in good tour to speak to members. standing for at least 12 months— How would that look? Well, even in a no exceptions. So, leadership races short five-week campaign, a series of would not be about creating soap bub- leadership town halls in each of the ble membership lists at a party office. provinces and territories would take And they would not be about recruit- up only 13 evenings on the campaign ing donors who in reality will never trail, presumably building momen- donate again. And they would not be tum and interest along the way. The invitations for professional campaign result would be an informed member- teams inside and outside of the party ship, with the party presumably bene- to flood its lists with temporary mem- fiting from earned media coverage. bers in the style of an old delegate se- Then at the end of the campaign, en- lection meeting. gaged members would vote in an on- Would this slam the door on ambi- line preferential ballot, results to be tions to recruit tens of thousands of announced at a lovely unity event. members who are women, racialized, And finally, here is a piece of advice First Nations, or other equity-seeking over the fence to Tories and anyone groups? I would argue that the last tempted to copy their system. Hand- people you should rely on for this im- Brian and Mila Mulroney at the 1983 PC ing power to decide your leadership to portant work are organizers for lead- convention. While not as democratic as all your weakest ridings with the fewest ership campaigns, looking for votes party members casting preferential ballots online, delegated conventions were a lot of fun. members got you Andrew Scheer and on a ballot for one minute. Building a Ron Bull, Toronto Star Photograph Archive, got you the current premier of Ontar- strong, diverse, and real membership Courtesy of Toronto Public Library io. Think about that. is 365-day-a-year work for party offices and riding associations. There aren’t last for 36 days—the minimum Brian Topp is a former president and national campaign director for the New any shortcuts—certainly not during length of a federal election cam- Democratic Party of Canada, and made leadership campaigns. paign. This leaves little time to game the contest but plenty of time for it to the last ballot as a candidate for the Finally, leadership campaigns should candidates to get their nominations NDP leadership in 2012.

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Policy Magazine presents The Week in Policy, our weekly look at developments in the world of policy and politics in Ottawa, Washington and points beyond. Written by Policy Associate Editor and Hill Times columnist Lisa Van Dusen, The Week in Policy hits the screens of Canada’s political and policy community every Friday afternoon.

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March/April 2020 24

Column / Don Newman Thanks, but No Thanks hat is wrong with the Con- leader of the Quebec Liberal Party in plans. Not only was Harper not sup- servative Party of Canada? 1998 and premier in 2003. portive, he said he would do every- With the Trudeau Liberals thing he could to make sure that if W Some inched right up to the line be- reduced to a minority government, Charest ran, he would not win. fore changing their minds. Poilievre with climate change, Indigenous and had a launch announcement set be- Whatever his personal view of Cha- energy politics appearing hopelessly fore stepping back, saying he realized rest, Harper did not want the Conser- intertwined, and with foreign policy the toll it would take on his wife and vative Party moving from the right dilemmas with both the United States baby daughter. to the middle of the political spec- and particularly China, the prospects trum. That key opposition, combined John Baird had been Poilievre’s cam- of a third Liberal election victory are— with a barrage of prohibitively nega- paign manager. But as the prospec- to put it mildly—not very bright. tive news coverage, supplied a sense tive field collapsed, he was urged to Against that backdrop you would of what Charest and his family would become the candidate himself, to be- think the current race to lead the Con- be facing. come the horse instead of the jockey. servative Party would be attracting Baird now has a lucrative private sec- Whether Charest retains the political the best and the brightest contend- tor career in Toronto, and a private skill he once had was not clear. But ers. Because when the party crowns its life he enjoys. In the end he wasn’t the Conservative Party lost the 2019 new leader on June 27 replacing the prepared to give either up. election because of its inability to win hapless Andrew Scheer, that person seats in Ontario, Quebec and Atlan- should have at least a 50-50 chance Rona Ambrose became interim leader tic Canada. Of all the potential candi- of being the next prime minister. Per- in 2015 after agreeing that she could dates, Charest seemed the most likely haps by then, given winters like the not use that job to then try for the to correct that deficiency. one Justin Trudeau has been through, leadership in 2017. Three years later the odds could be even better. in 2020, her interest in becoming the So now the race is between two former cabinet ministers from the Harper era: Those odds should have brought big permanent leader was somewhere between slim and non-existent. With a Peter MacKay and Erin O’Toole. Oth- name, competent candidates lining up ers have signaled they want to run, to announce they are running. But in- successful career and happy life with her husband, J.P. Veitch, returning to but aside from Ontario MP Marilyn stead, the big names have bowed out. Gladu they are all no-hopers from the One after another, they have taken Ottawa from Calgary was never really in the cards. fringes of the party unlikely to meet their names out of consideration. All the fundraising and membership re- have had their reasons, either stated he circumstances surrounding quirements to be on the ballot. publicly or not. But none would seem Jean Charest not running are a barrier to running if a person really MacKay is a former Foreign Affairs, in some ways the most bizarre thought they could be the next PM. T Defence and Justice minister in the of all. Also, the most challenging both Harper government, while O’Toole Pierre Poilievre, the feisty Conserva- for Conservatives and more broadly was minister of Veterans Affairs. tive finance critic from the last Parlia- for Canadian politics in general. MacKay is the perceived front run- ment. Rona Ambrose, the Harper-era After leaving public life following his ner, but neither is lighting up the cabinet minister. She impressed many defeat in Quebec in 2012, Charest em- sky. Perhaps that will change as the in the House during her time as in- barked on a very successful and lucra- vote draws near. But the absence of terim leader after the party’s defeat in tive career as an international lawyer so many big names in the leadership the 2015 election and before Scheer with a prominent Canadian law firm. race is not a good omen for the party. was elected leader in 2017. John Baird, the highly competent cabinet minis- But he still had the political itch. And And it leaves the question: What ter in successive Harper cabinets who he planned to scratch it by running is wrong with the Conservative

also served in the Ontario provincial for the Conservative leadership. Part- Party? government. And Jean Charest, who ly as a courtesy and partly to take the Columnist Don Newman, Executive as a young MP 30 years ago served in political temperature, Charest called Vice President of Rubicon Strategies in the Progressive Conservative cabinet former Prime Minister Stephen Harp- Ottawa, is a lifetime member of the of Brian Mulroney, then became the er before Christmas to tell him of his Parliamentary Press Galley.

Policy 25 Budget Preview Budget 2020: Managing Risk and Uncertainty

Fiscal planning always contains an element of uncertainty. predict), the risks around growing imbalances in output, regional econ- Budgetary policy at the federal level in Canada includes omies, investment and household managing not just all the risks inherent in an economy debt in the Canadian economy are subject to global trends—from capital flows to the coro- real. Short- and long-term economic imbalances create risk to stability navirus—but all that and the price of oil, too. Ahead of and growth. Budget 2020, former Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin • All the growth in the economy Page advises prudence. since fall 2018 has come from the service sector. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz expressed concerns earlier this year that weakness in the goods sector may adversely affect the service sector. Kevin Page While it is early going, there is a with Kyra Carmichael, good chance that markets and ana- • Economic situations are much lysts have underestimated the po- weaker in energy producing Nicholas Liban Dahir, tential negative economic impacts of provinces like Alberta, and Hiba Khan the spread of the coronavirus. Glob- Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland al supply chains have already been and Labrador. inance Minister Bill Morneau is seriously disrupted. As the disease expected to table his first budget spreads, the impact on supply chains • Household credit and mortgage of a new government mandate will grow. Whether we are facing a liabilities relative to GDP sits at F 165 percent in 2019, up from 100 in late March, just before the current global growth slowdown or a reces- fiscal year draws to an end. It is an sion will depend on the spread of the percent in 2000. Debt service costs important budget. The government virus and the impact on business and have risen significantly over the needs to demonstrate it can be consumer confidence. past two years. a steady hand on the tiller in a This is all playing out in the wake • Real gross fixed capital formation period where the waters are likely to of a loss of economic momentum. has not grown since 2014. be choppy. Growth in North America and Eu- • All the relative gains in income rope was below expectations at the A ship’s captain confronted with dif- distribution (market income and end of 2019—virtually no growth in ficult weather must make choices. after tax and transfer income) have Europe in the fourth quarter. One, the captain can slow headway gone to the top 10 percent over and put the bow into the wind—ap- the last 30 years. proaching waves at an angle so not to o, what does this mean for unbalance the ship. Two, the captain Budget 2020 strategy? We think The textbooks on managing risks and can adjust course and seek shelter. S it means the prudent course is uncertainty highlight two success fac- for the ship’s captain, Finance Min- tors—accommodate challenges (do The economic clouds on the hori- ister Morneau, to slow headway on not make decisions that ignore them) zon are real. They are global in na- platform implementation. and build capacity to manage risks. ture—coronavirus, slumping world trade, geopolitical tensions related First and foremost, budgets are eco- In rolling out 2019 election platform to a host of factors including Brexit, nomic and fiscal plans. While the initiatives, the government needs to the U.S. election and relations with likelihood and timing of a global give priority to initiatives that reduce China and Iran. slowdown is uncertain (difficult to imbalances.

March/April 2020 26 The Liberal platform proposed about TABLE 1 $57 billion in new deficit finance The Tale of Two (Liberal) Budgets: Economic and Fiscal Update 2019 initiatives over four years. While the vs Budget 2016. Year 2020-21 (% of GDP) money was spread over close to 50 initiatives, the majority went to a Budgetary Program Public Debt Budgetary Debt broad-based tax cut, seniors, fami- Revenues Spending Interest Balance lies, health care and education. The 2019 E&F Update 14.7 14.8 1.0 -1.0 31.0 climate change agenda—the commitment to get to zero net carbon 2016 Budget 14.5 13.6 1.5 -0.6 30.9 emissions was not costed. Over the Notes* Reference Economic Indicators 2020 next four years, the Liberal commitment was to raise some $25 billion in new revenues or savings through Nominal Gross Domestic 3-Month Treasury Product ($ millions) Bill Rate (%) reviews and tax increases on corpo- rations and luxury goods. 2019 E&F Update 2388 1.5 2016 Budget 2368 2.7 o we need to see all or some of these initiatives in Budget Source: Department of Finance Fiscal Reference Tables; 2019 Economic and Fiscal Update D 2020? Maybe less is more and fiscal capacity is saved to help stabi- lize a potentially unstable economy. some four years ago. It is a fiscal man- sustainability crunch. Second, mone- agement achievement that deserves tary policy has less room to maneu- Building trust on fiscal management to be noticed. What stands out, how- ver if a recession hits, which means is a challenge. Having a good track re- ever, is that the Liberals have spent that fiscal policy needs to be able to cord is indispensable. In the 2015 and the economic dividend from lower step up. 2019 elections, the Liberal fiscal strat- than expected interest rates. There is egy was to run modest deficits and a penchant to increase spending. Currently, the Liberals’ main fiscal put the federal debt to GDP ratio on sustainability objective is to keep the a downward path. Table 1 compares With the building of economic im- debt-to-GDP ratio declining, a goal fiscal and economic projections for balances, it is worth considering how that will be difficult to demonstrate 2020-21 between the Fall 2019 Eco- much room the government has to in Budget 2020 without new sav- nomic and Fiscal Update and their introduce new spending initiatives ings measures. This target leaves im- (first) Budget in 2016. and cut taxes and how to use it. Un- portant questions about appropriate usually low interest rates have two planned limits on spending. With respect to deficits and debt, the upshots: first, governments can carry world has largely unfolded as planned higher levels of debt without facing a To build confidence and credibility, the Liberals could work on creating a more transparent, comprehensive, CHART 1 and clearly defined fiscal planning Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio framework with a focus on long-run economic growth. To strengthen accountability, they could consider targets on spending and the budgetary balance (deficit) in addition to a medium-term debt to GDP rule. To Accumulated deicit o D promote intergenerational fairness, they could develop principles on the 31% use of deficit finance. Contributing Writer Kevin Page is founding President and CEO of roections the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Democracy at University of Ottawa. 1 He previously served as Canada’s first Parliamentary Budget Officer. He has been joined in preparing this Budget 1-1 1- 1- - - 1-11 1-1 1-1 - preview by students Kyra Carmichael, Source: Finance Canada, Fiscal Reference Tables/Economic and Fiscal Update Nicholas Liban Dahir, and Hiba Khan.

Policy

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s popular and progressive leader, at a 2018 Cabinet swearing-in. Her “Wellbeing Budget” is considered a landmark of transparent and forward-looking fiscal policy that Canada would do well to emulate.Wikimedia photo Budgeting for Well-Being

The thread linking Bobby Kennedy’s contention that GDP Helaina Gaspard “measures everything but that which is worthwhile”, and Emily Woolner Jacinda Ardern’s “Wellbeing Budget” half a century later he pursuit of the good life has and all the efforts to humanize fiscal policy in between is been contemplated by philos- T ophers and debated by poli- well-known. What can Canada do to move closer to the ticians. Fostering an environment quality-of-life budgeting model embraced by New Zea- in which individuals can pursue the best possible versions of themselves land and Scotland? can be one conception of the good life, based on the well-being of individuals. Organizations such as the Organisation for Economic Coopera- tion and Development have attempted to capture this well-being through a series of indicators, by measuring quality of life and opportunity in countries and cities.

In his post-election mandate letters, Prime Minister Trudeau tasked newly minted Minister of Middle Class

March/April 2020 28 Prosperity and Associate Minister of tion of the good life and its potential that help to assess progress Finance Mona Fortier, to “better in- implications for them. It just may transparently along the way. corporate quality of life measure- promote better politics and policy de- Future attempts at budgeting for well- ments into government decision- velopment, too. being would have to be gradual. The making and budgeting, drawing on U.K.’s All Party Parliamentary Group lessons from other jurisdictions such In its pursuit of well-being, Scotland on Wellbeing Economics released a as New Zealand and Scotland.” adopted a National Performance Framework with desired “National report to the Chancellor of the Exche- The pursuit of well-being may not Outcomes,” measured through 81 quer in May 2019. As a group of par- be new, but budgeting for well-be- indicators ranging from children to liamentarians, their goal is to define a ing has the potential to be a strate- economics to human rights and the vision of well-being for the U.K. and gic shift in how money is used by environment. The framework is in- to use that vision as a frame for policy placing results and accountability for tended to guide budget and policy decisions. Recognizing that targeted outcomes at the centre of decision- making by focusing on the country’s investments (approximately 8 billion making. This approach—when done overall goals of a successful, inclu- GBP were proposed) are required in well—requires strategic alignment sive, productive and happy country. mental health, schools, continuing among policy approaches, expendi- To get a sense of progress overall or education, community facilities and tures, and measurement. on any one indicator, the “Equal- justice, the group proposes a spend- ity Evidence Finder” will generate ing review focused on well-being to Consider New Zealand, which re- graphs from a variety of data sources find the funds. The spending review leased “The Wellbeing Budget,” in used for measurement. would be an important tool to refo- 2019. The budget’s purpose was to cus priorities and align spending to focus on “five priority areas where What New Zealand and Scotland share desired outcomes. evidence tells us there are the great- in their approaches is a clear vision for est opportunities to make real differ- well-being in their societies, means of o obtain a full picture of how ences to the lives of New Zealanders.” working towards it, and tools for mea- Canada allocates and spends These five priorities included: men- suring progress. While not perfect, T public money for its programs tal health, child well-being, support- they represent transparent and veri- and services, one must consult the bud- ing the aspirations of the Maori and fiable approaches against which to get (for in-year incremental spending), Pasifika, enhancing productivity, and measure government action or inac- the appropriations (for a full portrait of transforming the economy. Each of tion on nationally defined priorities. spending) and the results reports (for these action areas had associated pro- This is different than internal horizon- a definition of program parameters grams to promote change. tal results management frameworks and outcomes). Canada has the foun- or even mandate tracker dashboards. dations to begin to rethink how gov- Preceding New Zealand’s well-being These visions may very well extend ernment spends to focus investments budget was their Living Standards beyond their current governments on desired results for its citizens. Cur- Framework, (LSF) developed by the and focus on long-term well-being. rent spending can be reviewed and re- Department of Treasury. Drawing on a focused, as was proposed in the U.K. variety of measures of physical health, Budgeting is about more than in-year With a defined vision, roadmap and social health, general life satisfaction deficits and surpluses; it defines pri- measurable goals, Canada could feasi- and work-life balance, the LSF was in- orities and actions. True public finan- bly work toward a well-being budget in tended to provide ministers with ad- cial management encompasses sound the next fiscal year. vice on how to promote well-being. fiscal discipline, with an alignment of Leveraging a variety of data points, spending to priorities, and a means Imagine if Canada’s next budget the LSF dashboard provides a detailed of tracking results over time. None of looked beyond merely the deficit overview of indicators, progress and this contravenes the realities of poli- number, and started to treat money trends to capture well-being from a va- tics. In fact, it may represent a set of like a tool for long-term progress (yes, riety of perspectives (as no single data tools often unused to refocus action beyond the next election) to support point tells the full story). on national priorities. the sustainable growth and development of this country and its people. udgeting for well-being may Wouldn’t that make budget day even seem indulgent to some and n Canada, a future budget focused more exciting? obvious to others. But consider on well-being would: B I Contributing Writer Helaina Gaspard for a moment that this government 1) Define a vision of the good life; is Director of Governance and defined its policy priorities, aligned Institutions at the Institute for Fiscal its expenditures and is attempting to 2) Present a roadmap for working toward that vision in the short-, Studies and Democracy (IFSD), at measure the results, openly. As a citi- University of Ottawa, and Emily medium-, and long-terms; zen, it’s useful to have a clear under- Woolner, a research assistant at IFSD, standing of a government’s concep- 3) Align goals to meaningful data is a UofO graduate student.

Policy 29

Canada and the World A Canadian Divide Over Barricades, Pipelines and Indigenous Reconciliation

The railway blockades over pipelines have deeply dam- CHART 1 In thinking about this whole topic aged the Reconciliation dialogue with Indigenous peoples, we’ve been talking about, what for and undermined the economy as well as Justin Trudeau’s you is the MOST important issue involved? leadership role as Prime Minister. Pollster Shachi Kurl shares timely Angus Reid data showing 80 percent of Ca- nadians thought the winter crisis hurt reconciliation, 86 percent thought it harmed the economy, while 70 percent thought Trudeau did a bad job managing an admittedly et Economy Law and rder difficult situation. et ndienous rihts Environment Shachi Kurl This was no longer just about how it all started with hereditary t’s as if this country was in the Wet’suwet’en chiefs opposing the grips of some deep convulsion Coastal GasLinks LNG pipeline proj- I caused by our utter polarization ect in Northeastern British Colum- on energy policy. bia, but about a nation-wide protest These two perspectives were strong- movement shutting down commer- ly linked to attitudinal data on what While the cycle of the erection and cial and passenger rail service in large Canadians believed to be the most dismantling of anti-Coastal Gas- parts of the country. important aspect of the conflict—56 Link blockades that have clogged our ports, obstructed our rail freight and put the brakes on our passenger trains, the impact on public opinion CHART 2 struck a Canadian divide. Overall, are the blockades helping or hurting: Reconciliation and the overall relationship between Indigenous and other Canadians? The implications for public policy (All respondents, n=1,501) discussion, and for economic outcomes, are also matters on which Ca- nadians are sharply divided on how Helin a lot 2% to handle the situation. Helin A new online survey by the Angus 10% Reid Institute among 1,500 Canadi- ans on February 25-26 found 53 per- Hurtin 39% cent of respondents said it was time to bring down the blockades of rail Hurtin a lot 41% lines using force if necessary, while the other 47 percent thought pa- o real imact either way 8% tience and dialogue with pipeline op- ponents was the best way forward.

March/April 2020 Helin a lot 2%

Helin 10%

Hurtin 39%

Hurtin a lot 41%

o real imact either way 8%

percent said it was the economy or CHART 3 Doing a good or bad job handling this whole issue regarding the the rule of law, while 44 percent said Indigenous or environmental issues Coastal GasLink project and the protest blockades against it? - were at the heart of it. “Prime Minister Justin Trudeau” Whatever side they were on, Ca- 9% 5% 14% nadians generally did agree on one thing—that Justin Trudeau has not handled the crisis well. 70% 80% 57% Just one in five Canadians, 21 percent of respondents, thought the Prime Minister had done a good job, 29% while 70 percent thought he had 21% 15% done a bad job. The economy and obs Indienous rihts Law and order The environment Just as damaging to a leader who came Total (n=1,501) n1 n to office saying that no cause was more Most important aspect of this issue important to him than healing with Indigenous peoples, a vast majority et ood ob et Bad ob Dont knowCant say of Canadians thought the blockades were harmful to reconciliation.

Among our poll respondents, 39 per- thought the barricades were “hurting 51 percent. By month’s end, support cent thought the blockades were the Canadian economy”, while only across the country had increased to a Helin“hurting” a lot reconciliation,2% and 41 per- 5 percent thought they were helping. solid 61 percent. cent found them “hurting a lot”, for a The longer-term aspect of this, the And that was before the Wet’suwet’en negative score of 80 percent. Helin 10% impact on Canada’s reputation as a hereditary chiefs and federal and provincial ministers responsible for the Only 10 percent of Canadians thought place to invest, is seen as harmful— file finally met on February 27, the theyHurtin were “helping”, while a negli- 78 percent thought the3 9%blockades same day as the release of this poll gible 2 percent thought they were were hurting, compared to just 6 per- taken the two previous days, while “helping a lot”. Barely one Canadi- cent who thought they were helping. Hurtin a lot 41% the argument was still ongoing in an in 10 thought the barricades were One positive result of the barricades Parliament, the B.C. Legislature and o realhelpful imact to the cause of reconciliation. either way 8% for pipeline proponents is that sup- among Indigenous leaders. port for the $6.6 billion Coastal Gas- anadians were equally down It will be interesting where our next Link project increased as the tensions on the impact of the bar- survey situates us all, not just in mea- escalated. Only two weeks earlier in a ricades on the economy and suring public opinion, but in terms C mid-February poll by the Angus Reid investment. of the issue going forward and its im- Institute, national support for the pact on the future of our country. Fully 86 percent of poll respondents pipeline stood at a slim majority of We know and understand the impacts that increasing carbon emis- CHART 4 sions have on the physical environ- Overall, are the blockades helping or hurting? (All respondents, n=1,501) ment. Few in this country totally reject the need to reduce them. 86% On our investment environment, it 78% should be a no-brainer that Cana- da, with all it has going for it, from our people to our resources and access to global markets, is a great place to invest. 16% 6% 5% 8% We’ll all be watching. Contributing Writer Shachi Kurl is et Helin et Hurtin o real imact either way Executive Director of the Angus Reid Institute, a national not-for-profit Canadas reutation as a lace or business investment The Canadian economy public opinion research foundation based in Vancouver. Source of all charts: Angus Reid

Policy 31

The ubiquitous best-selling Margaret Atwood on a book tour of Europe, doing her part to build the Canadian literary brand worldwide. A new and different world from the formative CanLit days, but also a challenging one for Canadian publishing in retail sales, even at home. Chris Boland Flickr photo Can’tLit? Complacency and Canadian Publishing Policy

Canadian authors are having a pan-generational, meta- Philip J. Cercone cultural moment. Led by the stratospheric, genre-jumping, o outsiders, it appears that late-career phenomenon of Margaret Atwood’s ubiquity Canadian authors and pub- and boosted by internationally recognized writers from T lishers in English Canada are flourishing: some 3,500 trade titles Michael Ondaatje to Esi Edugyan, Canadian literature are published each year, approxi- today is not your grandmother’s CanLit. But as McGill- mately 72 percent of these issued by over 100 Canadian-owned inde- Queen’s University Press Executive Director Philip Cercone pendent publishers, with Canadian writes, beneath the Bookers and bonnets, publishers in a branch plants of multinational publishers releasing the rest. To insiders, market this size still rely on government funding mecha- the view is that we are being inundat- nisms, some of which contain fatal flaws. ed by a tidal wave of non-Canadian titles in bookstores, libraries (whether they be public or housed by a university, college, or classroom), and re-

March/April 2020 32 views and media. Over the past few Not since the government of Brian Mulroney, decades, the number of new titles has when the Baie Comeau policy was announced and increased dramatically and, today, an educated guess is that over 700,000 the Canada Book Fund was created, has there been a titles in the English language are willingness on the part of the federal government to published worldwide each year, with promote and foster Canadian culture, of which the some 60 percent of those published writing and book publishing industry forms a part. in the United States and 30 percent in the United Kingdom.

There are two major bodies of national scope that fund book publishing in Canada: the Department of Canadian support accessible digital book pro- as fiction does to Canadian culture. Heritage and the Canada Council for duction and distribution by Canadi- At the same time, in a departure from the Arts. The latter is a federal Crown an independent publishers. longstanding practice, significant in- corporation accountable to Parlia- dustry input on the direction of pub- ment through the minister of Cana- These initiatives on the part of the lishing support by the Council is no dian Heritage. Thanks to substantial federal government are laudable and longer a given. The industries, both funding from the Department of Ca- they will bolster the creative side of anglophone and francophone, are nadian Heritage through the Canada Canadian book writing and publish- united in asking the Canada Council Book Fund (CBF) and from the Cana- ing, which is in good shape in all to restore its support for non-fiction da Council for the Arts, and to a less- genres. Nevertheless, while supply is er extent from provincial programs plentiful, awareness and readership to the same degree that it supports and the Social Sciences and Humani- have been in decline over the past the other genres—fiction and short ties Research Council (SSHRC), the in- decades. Further actions are needed. stories, poetry, drama, children’ and dustry has managed to remain stable young adult literature, and graphic and slightly profitable. Without gov- ince the founding of the Cana- novels. Because the Council sees its ernment support, a vibrant publish- da Council 63 years ago, pro- mandate as “supporting the producing industry in this country would not S motion and support for the Ca- tion of art works in the literary arts be viable as multinational publishers nadian writing and publishing com- and the study of literature and the have captured the best-selling Cana- munity has been a cornerstone of its arts,” non-fiction publishing must dian authors who were first nurtured mission. Publishers worked in tan- be recognized as literary if it is to and published by small independent dem with budding writers and, as a be supported. Canadian publishers. But not since result, Canadian writers such as Mar- the government of Brian Mulroney, garet Atwood, Alice Munro, Michael urther, if a writer’s activity is when the Baie Comeau policy was an- Ondaatje, Marshall McLuhan, and funded at the research stage by nounced and the Canada Book Fund Margaret MacMillan are household F the SSHRC, or if its publication was created, has there been a willing- names around the world. Together is partially funded by SSHRC’s Awards ness on the part of the federal govern- we punch above our weight. Never- to Scholarly Publishing Program ment to promote and foster Canadi- theless, publishing has not benefited (ASPP), the resulting book is not eli- an culture, of which the writing and from the Council’s doubled budget as gible for core publishing support, for book publishing industry forms a part. much as one would have thought. translation grants, or for non-fiction Governor General’s Awards. The only our recent government initia- Non-fiction has been downgraded Canada Council funding for which it tives to support the industry are and this puts some publishers at risk remains eligible is Creating, Know- the doubling of the budget of of their grants being frozen or not be- F ing and Sharing, the component that the Canada Council over five years; ing funded at all if they do not attain supports the arts and cultures of First the restoration of funding for cul- the required minimum number of el- ture to Canadian embassies around igible titles. Indeed, some members Nations, Inuit, and Métis peoples. An the world; the funding of Canada as of the publishing industry have been art history book on the Group of Sev- a guest of honour at the 2020 Frank- told directly by current senior Coun- en, for example, if the research was furt Book Fair, where the Canadian cil leadership that it would prefer not funded by SSHRC, would not be con- publishing industry and its authors to be funding publishers at all. In- sidered eligible. But if it were fund- will be the epicentre of this singular stead of expanding criteria to match ed by other organizations, it would cultural showcase as the world’s larg- its expanded resources, the Council be. Where are the logic and justifica- est annual trade book fair; and the in- has narrowed them, and it does not tion for singling out SSHRC-funded vestment in the Canada Book Fund see some genres, specifically non-fic- projects? Should this decision not be of $22.8 million over five years to tion, as contributing as significantly based on the book’s merits?

Policy 33 The Canada Council has always fund- the hard sciences, where journal and gram: they intend to transition the ed translations, but some eight years open access (OA) publishing—online, ASPP to a program that would require ago under the Harper government, it free of charge, usually with less re- all awarded books to be published was given some additional $800, 000 strictive copyright and licensing bar- with open access. The exact imple- a year by the Department of Canadi- riers—are the norm. But books in the mentation of this change has not yet an Heritage to have a programme to- human sciences are not the same as been determined, but SSHRC has stat- talling $1 million to fund translations journals in the hard sciences and do ed that it will not be accompanied by from French to English or vice versa. not follow the same conventions. the additional funding such a move Unfortunately, with its narrowing would require. criteria, serious books of non-fiction, unless deemed literary, are no longer The industries, This policy shift will affect Canadian being funded for translation. Given both anglophone university presses, Canadian scholars, this new departure at the Council, and francophone, are and the broader scholarly communi- the Department of Canadian Heri- united in asking the cations environment in significant ways. Most, if not all, of the 180 books tage should redirect the $800, 000 Canada Council to restore and administer that amount itself or a year the ASPP funds would nev- through other cultural agencies. its support for non-fiction er have been submitted to them un- to the same degree that it der these conditions, because publish- Before SSHRC was founded in 1978, supports the other ers cannot afford the loss of sales that the humanities and social scienc- would result from such a policy. In my es formed a division of the Cana- genres—fiction and short view as executive director of McGill- da Council. Now it is more close- stories, poetry, drama, Queen’s University Press and former ly aligned with the policies of the children‘ and young adult director of the ASPP, this destabiliza- Canadian Institutes of Health Re- literature, and graphic tion would be disastrous for the Cana- search (CIHR) and the Natural Sci- dian scholarly publishing scene. ences and Engineering Research novels. Council (NSERC). SSHRC funds some Scholarly publishers are not opposed 180 publications through the arm’s- to open access, but when it is elect- length Awards to Scholarly Publica- ed or mandated it must also be ad- tions Program of the Canadian Fed- equately funded. Significant num- eration for the Humanities and Social bers of scholarly titles in Canada Sciences (CFHSS). This program, At a recent meeting, SSHRC and are funded by publishers’ backlists, which has been in place for 80 years the CFHSS announced a significant and with no backlist sales, OA books and preceded the Canada Council, change to the current operation of would need to be funded in the now finds itself more aligned with their flagship publication awards pro- range of $30,000–$40,000 each. This

Presence in Canadian Book Distribution, January-May 2019

Canadian Canadian 11 Canadian 1

orein orein orein

Canadian-authored book borrowin Canadian-authored book urchases Canadian-authored book urchases rom ublic libraries 1 rom all book retailers 1 rom indeendent bookstores 1

Source: More Canada Report, 2019

March/April 2020 34 model would also reduce publishers’ Lorimer of James Lorimer and Com- their budgeting practices must Canada Book Fund grants, which are pany and Formac Publishing and be improved to help their users allotted based on sales revenue. Fi- Jeff Miller of Irwin Law Inc., I co-au- discover and borrow Canadian- nally, OA would put Canadian uni- thored a 180-page report titled More authored books. versity presses at a further disadvan- Canada: Increasing Canadians’ Aware- • Publishers must develop industry tage compared with U.S. university ness and Reading of Canadian Books. practices that give Canadian presses and with Cambridge and Ox- The report is our distillation of the books a strong identity mark in ford, which are not moving towards discussions of a task force we cre- the crowded marketplace. an OA model. Instead of adopting a ated to bring together 29 seasoned full-blown OA policy, SSHRC should professionals with over 1,000 years • The industry must take action launch a pilot project to see how of experience in publishing, book- to support new independent some of those 180 publications can selling, libraries, schools, and me- English-language bookstores be published in that form and evalu- dia, prompted by the disappearance across the country, with a target ate the results after three years. of Canadian books from bookstores of establishing 50 in the next and library shelves across Canada. five years. nlike the other bodies men- Unlike in Quebec, where provin- • The Canada Book Fund should be tioned above, the Depart- cial legislation regarding Canadian expanded to support bookstore ment of Canadian Heritage U books protects their market share, programming of events with has implemented some enlightened in English Canada, while Canadian Canadian authors, and to double publishing policies. Recently the writers and publishers continue to public library spending on Canada Book Fund, established some account for large numbers of new Canadian-authored books. 40 years ago, was re-evaluated and books, their share of book sales has the report correctly read the pulse of declined from 25 percent to 12 per- • Provincial governments need to the industry to identify some needed cent over the past 10 years. implement accredited bookstore changes. It found that its main sup- policies, adapted from a highly port mechanism, the CBF, remains successful Quebec model that relevant and is effective. In English Canada, gives Canadian-authored and while Canadian Canadian-published books Between 2012 and 2017, $175 mil- great visibility and puts an lion was allocated to publishers for writers and publishers independent bookstore in the production, marketing, and dis- continue to account for virtually every town and city in tribution of Canadian-authored ti- large numbers of new Quebec. tles. The evaluation also identified books, their share of book some “unmet needs,” such as dis- • New provincial support should coverability in a “crowded market- sales has declined from 25 be provided to expand the very place” and the promotion of Cana- percent to 12 percent over popular “tree award” programs, dian books in the digital age. What the past 10 years. which put new books by is needed is an increase in the CBF’s Canadian writers into the hands budget, which has remained the of tens of thousands of school-age same for decades, and funding to kids every year. support the marketing of Canadi- Much has to be done to reinvigo- an books in Canada. Canada being rate the English Canadian publish- the 2020 host country at the Frank- The report has 68 policy recommen- ing world so that our culture is rep- furt Book Fair, where the publishing dations, among which the eight most resented in all of its rich diversity. world shops, is highly laudable, but important are: Industry leaders, government, and in 2021 we have to put more energy • Digital infrastructure that funding agencies need to do our part into ensuring that Canadian books does not distinguish between to ensure that we continue to create are widely available in Canada. Canadian and foreign books must a literature we are proud to have in Not identified in the report is suc- be reworked. Canada and abroad. cession planning, which is close to a • Financial support should be Philip J. Cercone is Executive Director crisis as the owners of about 20 per- extended to independent and Editor of McGill-Queen’s University cent of presses are nearing or past re- bookstores, which do the best job Press, Canada’s premier academic tirement age. We have to ensure that of bringing Canadian books to and trade publisher, with offices in those companies survive and contin- the fore. Montreal, Kingston, Toronto and ue discovering and publishing new • Public libraries are doing a Chicago. It is the only Canadian and established Canadian authors. superb job of encouraging book publisher with an editorial and In December 2018, along with James reading, but their software and marketing office in Great Britain.

Policy 35

Leo: A Life, Well-Lived

for a kid who grew up as a dentist’s son, 5 km down the mountain and due northeast in the storied Jewish neighbourhood around St. Urbain Street immortalized in Mordecai Richler’s novels. His grandparents, Samuel and Naomi Kolber, had been immigrants from Austria and his grandfather, “a merchant and a moneylender,” as Leo recalled, had a clothing store in a building he owned on St. Laurent— universally known as the Main, then the heart of the shmatte business—and lent people money for mortgages in places like Westmount. Leo went to McGill as a 16-year-old undergraduate in 1945, and worked his way through law school, class of ’52. “It was at McGill,” he wrote, “that I met Charles Bronfman, who Leo Kolber, then Chair of the powerful Senate Banking Committee, at home in Montreal in 2003. became my best friend for life.” He was a force to be reckoned with in business, philanthropy and politics. Mosaic Design Photo Leo, who had been suffering from Alzheimer’s, would have been deeply touched that Charles and his wife, Rita, flew to Montreal at the end to L. Ian MacDonald Leo: A Life, which became a national say farewell. Leo would have been business bestseller in 2003. equally moved by the eulogy of- eo Kolber was famously punc- Oh, the stories he told while we fered by Charles at his funeral several tual, as he once reminded me worked on that book, in his own days later. when I rang the doorbell of L words, and his own voice: from his his house, five minutes late for a “I’d give anything not to be here to- birth in 1929 at the dawn of the Great luncheon meeting about writing his day,” Charles began, speaking of his memoir. Depression, to his retirement in 2003 “friend of 70 years.” Charles was one as chair of the powerful Senate Bank- of two eulogists who was not a mem- “If we are going to work together,” he ing Committee before his compulso- ber of Leo’s immediate family, but said as he answered the door, “you ry retirement from the Red Chamber part of the larger one, the other being are going to have to learn to be on itself the next year as he turned 75; former prime minister Jean Chrétien, time.” On leaving his full and event- from his role as chief fund raiser of in high form as he spoke of Leo’s rec- ful life early in the morning of Janu- the federal Liberal Party to champi- ommendation for fixing the Liberal ary 9, Leo was a bit early—a week be- on of Israel and an array of non-prof- Party’s books (“declare bankruptcy”) fore his 91st birthday. it causes. and his love of Canada. He lived on Summit Circle, at the Whether he was fundraising for Mc- top of Westmount in Montreal—a t was through Charles that Leo Gill University, the Jewish General symbolic residential achievement for met the legendary patriarch Sam Hospital, Combined Jewish Appeal or more than a few of Canada’s captains Bronfman, builder of Seagram’s the Montreal Symphony Orchestra, I of industry, entertainment and pol- and Distiller’s Corporation, the he knew how to get to “yes”. No one itics. How he got there as the consi- foundation of the family’s iconic li- said no to Leo. gliere of the Bronfman liquor and real quor brands and real estate invest- estate empire was part of the story of It was quite a trip to the summit ments. He was known as “Mr. Sam”,

March/April 2020 36 except to Leo, who loved him like As Kolber would write in his memoir: paign finance reform, when both a father and never called him any- “The TD Centre was the architectur- leading parties appointed prominent thing other than Mr. Bronfman. al statement that defined the essence fundraisers and few people blinked. For his part, Charles told the audi- of a great city coming of age.” The After the scary one-point win by the ence at the Shaar Hashomayim Syn- vision was partly Cadillac Fairview No side in the 1995 Quebec referen- agogue in Westmount, his father building a great Canadian and inter- dum, the Chrétien Liberals were de- was not concerned that Kolber be- national brand. The rest was large- termined to make a statement in the gan “without money”, but saw him ly the relationships Kolber nurtured 1997 election, and asked Kolber if he instead as someone “with his feet with the firm’s partners, none more could raise an extra $1.5 million in on the ground” so that if either of so than Allen Lambert, chairman of Quebec. Only if they gave him 24 the TD Bank in the 1960s and 70s. his own sons “went astray, he would Sussex, he replied, for seven nights They built the TD Centre on a hand- keep us in check.” of dinners for 10 with the PM. “No- shake, with each partner investing body turned down an invitation to Mr. Sam hired Leo to run Cemp In- only $6 million up front. (Cadillac dinner at 24 Sussex,” Kolber later vestments, the holding company Fairview walked away with $500 mil- wrote. He easily raised the extra $1.5 named for his four children, Charles, lion when Kolber sold at the top of Edgar, Minda and Phyllis. And from the market in 1987.) When another million and the Liberals picked up the Seagram castle on Peel Street, bank pulled out of the Pacific Centre, seven seats in Quebec. Leo was the driving force of Cadillac a major development in Vancouver, Fairview, which built Canada’s ur- Lambert told Kolber on the phone: Leo was seriously ban and suburban landmarks of the “Count me in for a third. It’s a done interested in policy 1960s and 70s, from Fairview Pointe deal.” Lambert would later say that Claire on Montreal’s West Island to the TD Centre transformed the bank making, and played a the famed Toronto-Dominion Cen- from a regional to a national player. leading role as chair of the tre, whose Bay Street black towers de- “Of the Big Five, we were the smallest Senate Banking Committee, fined the modern Toronto skyline. bank,” he once recalled, saying the then the best informed and TD Centre gave the bank “a tremen- t the urging of his daughter, dous lift.” most influential committee Phyllis Lambert, whose pas- on the Hill. Most of its sion for design later inspired Such was the relationship with Kol- A ber that he was appointed a director members had worked or her founding of the Canadian Centre for Architecture, Sam Bronfman had of TD at the age of 42, a seat he re- served on boards in financial hired architect Ludwig Mies van der tained for 28 years. A bank director- services, and knew what they Rohe to design the Seagram Building, ship had eluded Mr. Sam for decades, were talking about. the acclaimed bronze landmark which primarily because he was Jewish. Also opened on Park Avenue in New York unfulfilled was his fondest wish, ap- in 1958. When it came to hiring an ar- pointment to the Senate. Leo Kolber, chitect for the TD Centre in the 1960s, his protégé, attained both. she told Kolber: “It has to be Mies.” And, so it was, for both the TD Centre A bank directorship Quite apart from being the Liber- and Montreal’s Westmount Square, had eluded Mr. Sam al bagman, Leo was seriously inter- the multiple black towers which are for decades, primarily ested in policy making, and played Phyllis and Leo’s Mies van der Rohe a leading role as chair of the Senate twins, an architectural legacy that has because he was Jewish. Also Banking Committee, then the best stood the test of time beautifully. unfulfilled was his fondest informed and most influential com- The other banks had no choice but wish, appointment to the mittee on the Hill. Most of its mem- to follow TD’s lead in building im- Senate. Leo Kolber, his bers had worked or served on boards pressive head office towers, all with- protégé, attained both. in financial services, and knew what in a few blocks in Toronto’s finan- they were talking about. cial district. Decades later, when he flew into Toronto, Leo would often Within the Liberal caucus, he won the look down at the world class Toron- argument to cut the taxable portion to skyline, and think, “we did that.” of capital gains from 75 to 50 percent, As so they did, as well as the Eaton with capital gains cuts typically re-in- Centre, then the largest retail shop- eo served as a Liberal senator vested rather than spent on household ping space in Canada, 1.6 million for 20 years under Pierre expenses. “I want you to listen to Leo square feet in the middle of down- L Trudeau, John Turner and Jean on this, because he’s right,” Chrétien town Toronto. Chrétien in the days before cam- told the Liberal caucus. And they did.

Policy 37 On the sensitive issue of big bank the business and social gathering athan and Lynne and their grandchil- mergers, not so much. Senate Banking place of Montreal’s anglophone es- dren. In recent years, he found love produced a 2002 report unanimously tablishment on Sherbrooke Street. A again with Roni Hirsch, who saw him recommending the approval of large leading member of the Jewish com- through his final illness. bank mergers, provided the finance munity reproached Kolber for not And at his passing, not just one prime minister was on-side. It was a land- receiving the Israeli prime minister minister, but two, came to Leo’s final mark study, produced within only at the exclusively Jewish Montefio- command performance—his funer- two months, but the Liberals were re Club. “Like hell,” Kolber replied. al. Chrétien was there, as was Brian spooked by the negative reaction of “They discriminate against us. Do we Mulroney. Not just any two prime voters and opinion leaders alike, and have to discriminate against them?” ministers, but two who had run the nothing more ever came of it. It was one of the stories he recounted country for nearly two decades with with delight in his memoir. Aside from his involvement in busi- great success, one as a transforma- ness and politics, Leo maintained In his decades as an honourary Bron- tional leader and the other who rep- longstanding friendships with Hol- fman and the éminence grise known resented continuity. lywood legends like Frank Sinatra, as the brains behind the family for- Both came from modest beginnings Danny Kaye and Cary Grant whom tune, Leo straddled the line between in small towns, and rose to the pin- he met through his major philan- respect for the dynasty and a desire nacle of public life in a country where thropic work and service on corpo- for independence. Of everything he success is its own reward, and giving rate boards. His love of and support achieved, his success in balancing back is a high honour. for Israel was the bond at the heart those allegiances may be his lasting of his close friendship with the late legacy. He was both deeply loyal, and Leo understood that. It’s how he lived prime minister and peace maker never not his own man. his own remarkable life. L’Chaim. Shimon Peres. And that began and ended with his L. Ian MacDonald, Editor and Publisher Leo once organized a lunch in hon- family, his first wife Sandra who died of Policy, was co-author of Leo: A Life, our of Peres at the Mount Royal Club, of cancer in 2001, their children Jon- the bestselling memoir by Leo Kolber.

Canadian Politics and Public Policy

Policy is a bi-monthly magazine. The guaranteed 2020 PUBLICATION DATES circulation of Policy includes leading Canadian policy makers Policy Issues Deadline for submission of ads and business leaders, including MPs, Senators, Deputy Ministers, Heads of Boards and Agencies, and members of the National Press May – June April 15 Gallery. Distributed in Air Canada Maple Leaf Lounges across July – August June 15 Canada and VIA Rail lounges in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. September – October August 15 For more information about advertising in Policy contact: November – December October 15 L. Ian MacDonald at [email protected] January – February 2021 December 15 or (514) 943-3868 March – April 2021 February 15 policymagazine @policy_mag www.policymagazine.ca

March/April 2020 38 Book Reviews

but she admits that she “never dared burden of poverty. Justice McLach- dream” of the life she came to know lin’s court helped to establish pay on both the personal and profes- equity in Canada, including with sional fronts. After carefully weigh- the Public Service Alliance of Canada ing the pros and cons, she left her v. Canada Post Corp. decision in 2011 tenured position at the University that awarded damages to a group of of British Columbia law school to employees after a claim was original- accept an appointment as a judge ly filed against Canada Post in 1983. in the County Court of Vancouver McLachlin sat on the Supreme Court at just 37 years old. McLachlin was for many of the most pivotal Char- promoted to the Supreme Court of ter cases in the country’s history. British Columbia just months later. Her decisions have had definitive ef- She was appointed to the British fects on key aspects of constitutional Columbia Court of Appeal in 1985, law, including the aforementioned was made the Chief Justice of the pay equity issue, the scope of free Supreme Court of British Columbia speech, the right to a doctor-assist- in 1988, and was nominated to the ed death, the role and reform of the Supreme Court of Canada in 1989, Senate, and Indigenous rights. where she became Chief Justice in 2000 and remained so until her retirement in 2017. Her nearly 40-year Truth Be Told adds career as a judge made an impact on Canadian jurisprudence that is noth- welcome texture to A Personal ing short of profound. the significant legacy of a Pathway to Her approach to the law has been Canadian policy leader. influenced by the work of Ameri- Beverley McLachlin’s the Pinnacle of can liberal philosopher John Rawls, whose central contribution was his forthright, generous style Power thinking on “justice as fairness.” The allows the reader to law should afford maximum liberty understand more not only Beverley McLachlin to individuals so long as that liberty does not infringe upon that of an- about her, but about the Truth Be Told: My Journey other. This line of argument echoes judicial decisions that have Through Life and the Law. the basic harm principle that John shaped Canada’s law and Toronto: Simon Stuart Mill articulated. Further to this, McLachlin believes that treat- Constitution in the post- & Schuster, 2019. ing people as “equals” ought not be Charter era. Review by Lori Turnbull confused with treating people “the same.” True justice requires consideration of context and circumstanc- n the pages of Truth Be Told, es, and merely treating people as retired Supreme Court Chief Jus- I though they are “the same” amounts tice Beverley McLachlin gives the to wilful blindness to truth. reader an open and candid account One of McLachlin’s early decisions of her life, from her childhood in on the Supreme Court addressed a Pincher Creek, Alberta, up until a hroughout her life as a lawyer, matter we grapple with frequently to- post-retirement vacation in Tuscany. T law professor, and judge, day: the prevalence of fake news and This book is not a chronology of her McLachlin viewed the law as an the state’s role in protecting us from work as a judge. Instead, it is an op- equalizer and as a mechanism for it. In R. v. Zundel (1991), the question portunity to get to know her and to fairness that is and ought to be at stake was the constitutionality of understand the personal, intellectu- available to all of us. About halfway section 181 of the Criminal Code, al, and ethical motivations that have through the book, she reveals her in- which was the “false news law” that driven her life and career. ner discourse around the concept of prohibited spreading “a statement, equality and its elusiveness for many tale or news” that a person knows Studious, hardworking, and self-re- people, including women. She dem- to be false and is likely to cause “in- flective from a young age, McLach- onstrates lifelong mindfulness of the jury or mischief to a public interest.” lin takes nothing for granted. She is struggles that women face, particu- McLachlin penned the majority deci- hopeful and optimistic by nature, larly those who bear the intersecting sion that struck down the law for its

Policy 39 vagueness and, in her memoir, writes bering and Remaking Canada’s Second that the Zundel decision, when con- World War. As Cook notes, our rela- sidered together with the earlier tionship with our country’s role in Keegstra decision that upheld the law the Second World War is “compli- prohibiting the wilful promotion of cated, complex and ever-shifting.” hatred against an identifiable group, That attitude is quite different from struck a balance between the right to other Allied partners who fought free speech and the protection of mi- the war to its bloody but success- norities from harm. ful close. In the United States, Cook writes, “the Second World War is the Throughout her career, Justice ‘Good War’ in which the Americans McLachlin has been known and re- defeated their evil enemies.” spected not only for her decisions but also the straightforward, acces- In Great Britain, ‘the dominant sible style in which she wrote them. memory of the war is that of the Not one for using jargon, which is an lone island standing up against over- exclusionary, elitist tactic designed whelming Nazi forces’, even though, to leave people out of conversations he notes, more than half a billion rather than draw them in, McLach- people in the then-British Empire lin was committed to writing deci- also pitched in. In Russia, they still sions in plain language and she en- speak proudly of ‘The Great Patri- couraged her peers to do the same. otic War’—and a huge memorial en route from Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Given the daunting list of accom- Airport into the city marks how plishments that have defined her ex- close the Germans came to captur- traordinary career, McLachlin would ing the capital. have every right to publish a book Canada’s Second that situates her, front and centre, as But here, Cook argues convincingly, a brave pioneer and a key player in World War Canada’s important wartime role the evolution of the law in Canada, and contributions have been largely particularly with regard to equality Tim Cook downplayed, both by governments and human rights. After all, she is and the population at large. The rea- that brave pioneer. But her tone is The Fight for History: 75 Years sons include timing, circumstance, realpolitik, societal and generational unwaveringly modest. She is refresh- of Forgetting, Remembering and ingly upfront about the times in her changes, and the traditional Cana- Remaking Canada’s Second World dian reluctance to applaud ourselves. life that she has struggled. As she War. Toronto: Penguin Random was building her career, she was also Only in recent years, with the num- House Canada, 2020. grieving the loss of her mother, and ber of Second World War veterans then her father, and then her hus- Review by dwindling, have we started to ac- band. She found herself confronting knowledge the enormity of their unexpected sadness when her son Anthony Wilson-Smith achievements and sacrifices. was an infant. She knows the acute stress of trying to make ends meet. ll wars,” the novelist Viet he numbers give a powerful sense The richness of her own life experi- “ AThanh Nguyen once observed, T of the commitment of Canadi- ences readied her as a judge and en- “are fought twice—the first time on ans. When the Second World War abled her to bring empathy to the the battlefield, the second time in began in 1939, Canada was a coun- bench. She could relate genuinely to memory.” Then there is Canada, try of 11 million people. By 1945, the people making cases before her. where our unending interest in defin- 45,000 Canadians had been killed ing our identity means we relive wars and 55,000 wounded. An untold Truth Be Told adds welcome texture many times over. We do so with at- number suffered from trauma that to the significant legacy of a Cana- titudes ranging from indifference to meant their lives and those of their dian policy leader. Beverley McLach- willful ignorance to periodic pride families were never what they would lin’s forthright, generous style al- and appreciation of both our achieve- have been. In the 1950s, one in three lows the reader to understand more ments and losses. adult males were war veterans, along not only about her, but about the with 50,000 women. Canadian ca- With that in mind, the influential judicial decisions that have shaped sualties are buried in 70 countries Canadian military historian Tim Canada’s law and Constitution in around the world. the post-Charter era. Cook, who has taken up the torch from Jack Granatstein and the late Despite that, successive generations Contributing Writer Lori Turnbull, Desmond Morton as a new genera- of Canadians, including, sometimes, a co-winner of the Donner Prize, tion’s pre-eminent voice in the field participants, often found it conve- is Director of the School of Public uses the quote as a framing device nient to push war memories aside. Administration at Dalhousie in his superb new book The Fight for Cook quotes an editorial from the University. History: 75 years of Forgetting, Remem- time in The Regina Leader-Post on

March/April 2020 40 the returning soldiers: “The long CBC’s demanding policies and stan- concludes, the Second World War trail which stretches behind them is dards”, so would not be re-broadcast. “has been waiting for us to return to strewn with memories, and the road As well, Cook delivers a frank account it.” As he explains so eloquently, it’s ahead shines bright with hope.” By of the many pressures and controver- an invitation we need to accept. the 1950s, veterans and others were sies surrounding the building of a Contributing Writer Anthony raising families at an unprecedented new Canadian War Museum, which Wilson-Smith is President and CEO of rate, and focused accordingly. The has since surmounted those and be- Historica Canada. 1960s brought huge social change; come a great success. anti-war sentiments, fed by the Unit- ed States’ troubled engagement in hose controversies marked a turn- Viet Nam, were also felt in Canada. T ing point. At the 50th anniversary By the 1970s, interest in November of D-Day in Normandy in 1994, Prime 11—Remembrance Day—was so low Minister Jean Chrétien led a large that Brig. Willis Moogk lamented that delegation in ceremonies aired on all many Canadians looked on it “as just national networks and watched by another holiday, rather than a day millions of Canadians. (As a journal- of grateful and thoughtful remem- ist covering the event, I recall seeing brance.” By the 1980s, Second World Chrétien, long after other dignitaries War veterans, now in their 60s, were had returned to their hotels, chatting shuffling off centre stage. A 40th an- informally for more than an hour in niversary event in Normandy, France, the darkened cemetery with remain- commemorating the historic D-Day ing veterans.) invasion, was notable for the low level In making his case, Cook’s many of Canadian engagement. strengths are again evident. He writes fluidly, with a sharp eye for In making his case, detail and the telling anecdote. His sympathies are with people on the Cook’s many ground rather than higher-ups—but strengths are again evident. he has a keen understanding of poli- He writes fluidly, with a tics and how and why decisions are made. He highlights the complex sharp eye for detail and the challenges of war—for example, the telling anecdote. His anguished decision celebrated naval commander Harry deWolfe made sympathies are with people when, after rescuing some men from on the ground rather than a sinking vessel, had to abandon oth- higher-ups—but he has a ers to their death in order to escape Canada’s nearby U-Boats. His descriptions of keen understanding of the mental challenges that soldiers Democratic politics and how and why faced after the war, drawn from let- Deficit decisions are made. ters, are heartbreaking.

nd now, 2020 almost certainly Donald J. Savoie marks the last major anniversa- A Democracy in Canada: ry—the 75th anniversary of the end The Disintegration of our of the war—for which we will still By the early 1990s, teaching of Can- have survivors with us to mark the Institutions. Montreal and ada’s role in the war was near-absent occasion. We do so, as Cook laments, Kingston: McGill-Queen’s from many schools, and what was still “without a major, unifying Sec- University Press, 2019. available in the media focused inordi- ond World War memorial”—again nately on the occasional mistakes and unlike our Allies. In that absence, it Review by Daniel Béland failings of Canada’s military rather becomes particularly important to re- than its accomplishments. Cook fo- member the people who live among onald Savoie is Canada’s best- cuses particularly on the three-part us still touched by the war’s direct D known expert of public admin- CBC series, The Valour and the Horror, hand. That includes not only the vet- istration, and he has published many which was harshly critical of Allied erans, but surviving widows who lost influential books over the years. His Bomber Command—including the husbands, the war-era children now newest, Democracy in Canada, is the Royal Canadian Air Force—as well grown old with scant memory of most ambitious of all, and Savoie as some decisions made during the their fathers, and the ravaged small makes it clear in the preface that he D-Day invasion. A CBC review sub- communities that lost the young sees it as his “magnum opus.” Read- sequently concluded that the series people who would have forged their ers familiar with his work will recog- “is flawed and fails to measure up to futures. After years of neglect, Cook nize key themes he has worked on

Policy 41 extensively in his previous books. More generally, what Savoie depicts Nothing less will succeed, as history Yet, in Democracy in Canada, after is a paradoxical mix of institutional demonstrates.” evoking C.B. MacPherson and Alexis disintegration and path dependence de Tocqueville, he revisits these is- related to the incapacity of our po- his poignant call is also a desper- sues by asking a very general ques- litical elite and system to bring about T ate one, as it places the fu- tion: “How healthy is Canadian constitutional change. Although to- ture of Canadian democracy in the democracy?” His answer is that it is day the issue of a democratic deficit hands of the prime minister, a figure deeply unhealthy and that a series is widely debated all over the world, whose growing power, for Savoie, of historical and institutional factors the book remains focused primarily incarnates one of the major prob- explain this dire situation. on what is specific about the contem- lems plaguing our democratic in- porary Canadian experience. Turning to historical institution- stitutions. After writing more than alism—a theoretical approach de- 360 pages on the path-dependent nature of institutions, he resorts to veloped in the late 1980s and early The fact that the 1990s—Savoie argues that “change the vague concept of “political will” in Canada is difficult because our book is quite long and the quasi-monarchic figure of political and administrative institu- and repetitive should not the prime minister at the centre of tions were constructed from a Brit- prevent scholars and contemporary “court government” ish historical and cultural experi- (a concept Savoie popularized in his ence with no effort or desire to bring practitioners from reading earlier work but does not deploy in into the mix Canadian realities.” For and engaging with this rich this book) to rescue Canadian de- him, the drawback that “none of our and ambitious work. mocracy. This approach points to institutions are home grown” is es- the challenge facing historical insti- pecially obvious with regard to the Hopefully, it will encourage tutionalism to account for change, Senate, which is primarily seen as a others to focus attention on which scholars like Jacob Hacker and site of “sober second thought” rather the “big picture” and the Kathleen Thelen diagnosed more than a tool for (intrastate) regional than 15 years ago. representation. Regarding this issue, challenges facing Canadian Savoie refers to the situation of other democracy today. Yet, instead of drawing on their countries, especially Australia and work, Savoie places his hopes in a the United States, to shed light on benevolent prime-ministerial sav- the Canadian case. iour. Ironically, he does not seem to perceive citizens and their capacity Savoie thinks the example of the to mobilize and bring about political Senate points to a broader reality: hat can we do to address a change as potential sources of con- the fact that, to quote the title of W democratic deficit stemming temporary democratization. Con- Chapter 6, “Everything Canadian is largely from a lack of regional repre- sidering the original meaning of the Regional, Except National Political sentation within the federal state? In word democracy (rule of the people), Institutions.” In a country where the last chapter, Savoie puts a num- this is problematic. Savoie’s vision of Ontario and Quebec continue to ber of suggestions forward: reducing democratic and institutional change dominate federal politics, it means the power of the prime minister; re- is elite-centric. that Atlantic and Western provinces empowering Cabinet, Parliament and struggle to have their voices heard, backbenchers; ending omnibus bills; These critical comments and the fact which weakens Canadian democra- organizing the Senate along regional that the book is quite long and repet- cy. Savoie argues that this problem lines; making information about re- itive should not prevent scholars and is exacerbated by the gradual cen- gional federal spending more easily practitioners from reading and en- tralization of power in the hands of accessible; reducing the staff of cen- gaging with this rich and ambitious the prime ministers and their court- tral agencies; and, improving public work. Hopefully, it will encourage iers, a trend associated with a sharp management. others to focus attention on the “big decline in the influence of the cabi- picture” and the challenges facing net, which has traditionally featured Savoie believes none of these reforms strong regional voices. Canadian democracy today. Ground- requires constitutional change and ed in Savoie’s deep institutional Beyond this lack of regional repre- he seems to place his hope in the knowledge and practical experience, sentation, according to Savoie, Cana- “political will” of a prime minister Democracy in Canada is a flawed book dian democracy is facing other chal- eager to bring about change to fix well worth reading. lenges, including the post-Charter Canadian democracy. The book thus rising influence of the courts, the de- ends on this call: “What is needed Daniel Béland is Director of the institutionalization of the country’s is a prime minister who is as firmly McGill Institute for the Study of media sector, and a public sector in- committed to fixing our political in- Canada and James McGill Professor in capable of renewing itself to address stitutions as Pierre E. Trudeau was the Department of Political Science at profound managerial problems. in patriating Canada’s Constitution. McGill University.

March/April 2020 PDF/X-1a:2003 42Avec vous à bord, on est sur la bonne voie

Ensemble, nous menons les Canadiens vers un avenir durable

La voie productive La voie écologique La voie économique La voie collective

Avec un accès Wi-Fi gratuit, Notre destination commune : En avançant ensemble, on En connectant plus de 400 com- des sièges spacieux et des un avenir durable. En choisis- donne un coup de pouce au munautés au Canada, on permet à bornes de rechargement à sant le train, vous contribuez portefeuille des Canadiens. près de 4,8 millions de voyageurs portée de main, vous serez à bâtir un Canada plus vert. de se rapprocher des personnes aussi confortable qu’au bureau. et des endroits qu’ils aiment.

Liaison Nombre Distance Temps Temps Coût du voyage Coût du voyage Économies pour de départs productif non productif en voiture** en train le contribuable par jour en train en voiture* (à partir (voyage en train)*** de seulement)

Ottawa Toronto Jusqu’à 20 450 km 4 h 25 min 4 h 46 min 487 $ 49 $ 438 $

Ottawa Montréal Jusqu’à 12 198 km 1 h 50 min 2 h 21 min 230 $ 37 $ 193 $

Ottawa Québec Jusqu’à 8 482 km 5 h 39 min 4 h 47 min 510 $ 49 $ 461 $

Toronto Montréal Jusqu’à 13 541 km 4 h 49 min 5 h 39 min 583 $ 49 $ 534 $

Les employés du gouvernement du Canada sont admissibles à un rabais de 10 % sur leurs voyages personnels réservés auprès de VIA Rail. Les employés du gouvernement du Canada peuvent profiter de tarifs spéciaux pour leurs voyages d’affaires réservés par l’entremise des Services HRG de voyage partagés. Le rabais ne s’applique ni aux tarifs Évasion ni à la classe Prestige. * Donnée issue d’une application de voyage en date du 22 mars 2019, à 17 h. ** Le coût du voyage en voiture est calculé selon la formule suivante : coût en $ du voyage en voiture (taux de 0,58 $/km établi par le Conseil du trésor pour l’Ontario pour une voiture conduite par un employé du gouvernement X distance parcourue) + frais en $ d’employé gouvernemental (taux horaire moyen d’un employé gouvernemental de 48 $/h selon un salaire de 100 000 $ par année, y compris les avantages sociaux X durée du voyage) = coût total en $ pour le contribuable. *** L’économie pour le contribuable associée aux voyages en train est calculée selon la formule suivante : coût en $ du voyage en voiture – coût en $ du voyage en train = économies en $ pour le contribuable. Les tarifs et les conditions peuvent changer sans préavis. MC Marque de commerce propriété de VIA Rail Canada inc.

Policy

2100, rue Drummond Cossette Montréal (Québec) H3G 1X1 24/04/19_13:07 client : VIA Rail Canada Nº Septième 111159146-1 format pap : 100 % @ 300 dpi description : Magazine Nº Cossette 111159146 trim — : 8,5” x 11” publication : Policy magazine – FR Nº VIA 6XXX-X safety - - - : 7,5” x 10” (0,5 po) conseillère : Andréanne L. Livraison: 4 octobre bleed — : 8,75” x 11,25” (0,125”) infographiste : Eric L. Parution: 15 octobre visible : — nom ﬁ chier : 59146-1_VIA_GovAd_Policy-FP-October-Fr.indd

To: The Right Honourable Justin Trudeau, P.C., M.P. The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, P.C., M.P. Prime Minister of Canada Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs The Honourable William Morneau, P.C., M.P. Minister of Finance

Dear Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Re: It’s Time for Some Good News in the 2020 Budget With all the negative media coverage regarding the Coronavirus and protesters, HEALTHCARE the time is right to include some good news in the 2020 budget that will have the support of all the opposition parties. The removal of the capital gains tax on charitable donations of private company shares and real estate would stimulate an estimated $200 million per annum in charitable donations, capitalizing on the success of the measure for gifts of listed securities, which has resulted in $1 billion per annum in charitable donations. The foregone capital gains tax on such gifts is estimated at only $50-$60 million and the charitable donation tax credit is the same as for gifts of cash. This fiscal cost is immaterial when your government anticipates a $20 billion deficit. There is no concern about valuation abuse because the asset must be sold to an arm’s-length party before the cash is donated. It removes a barrier to charitable giving for people who wish to give Mother’s Day Run and Walk in support of Stollery Children’s Hospital Foundation. Sangudo Flickr photo back to their communities. EDUCATION This measure will help unite our country and your relationship with each of the provinces and the municipalities. 2/3 of the fiscal cost is borne by the federal government and 1/3 by the provinces. Charities in each of the municipalities will receive additional funding and there is no fiscal cost, because municipalities derive their revenues from property taxes, not income taxes. This measure addresses an inequity in the current Income Tax Act and provides the same tax treatment for donations of public company shares and private company shares. Furthermore, it levels the playing field for fundraising by

Canadian charities compared to our U.S. counterparts and helps us compete for Fraser Valley University photo the best and brightest talent. SOCIAL SERVICES Comments from the tax policy professionals in the Department of Finance have been addressed with the above facts. Importantly, the Special Senate Committee on the Charitable Sector recommended “INCENTIVIZING THE DONATION OF REAL ESTATE AND PRIVATE COMPANY SHARES” in Section 3 of its June 2019 report. Now is the time to demonstrate leadership and make a public policy decision that would benefit all of our charities and the millions of Canadians who are served by our hospitals, social service agencies, universities and arts and

cultural organizations. Steve Nash Foundation Flickr photo Yours truly,

Donald K. Johnson, O.C., LL.D. cc: Mr. Andrew Scheer, Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada Mr. Jagmeet Singh, Leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada M. Yves-François Blanchet, Chef du Bloc Québécois Ms. Jo-Ann Roberts, Interim Leader of the Green Party of Canada