Morning Insight
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Morning Insight MAY 22, 2019 % Chg News Highlights 21-May 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices Large corporates looking to buy back shares may now have to factor SENSEX Index 38,970 (1.0) (0.4) 8.6 in consolidated group debt in their calculations. The Securities and NIFTY Index 11,709 (1.0) (0.4) 8.5 Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is planning to tweak share buyback NSEBANK Index 30,308 (1.5) 0.3 12.0 norms by proposing that it would consider consolidated numbers NIFTY 500 Index 9,579 (1.0) (1.6) 7.6 instead of standalone financial metrics. (ET) CNXMcap Index 17,361 (1.1) (4.0) 5.4 BSESMCAP Index 14,293 (0.6) (4.9) 6.5 The Punjab National Bank (PNB) is likely to take over two to three World Indices smaller state-run banks -- Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC), Andhra Dow Jones 25,877 0.8 (2.4) (0.6) Bank and Allahabad Bank -- in the next three months, reports Nasdaq 7,786 1.1 (2.9) 3.4 Reuters. (moneycontrol). FTSE 7,329 0.2 (1.8) 2.1 NIKKEI 21,272 (0.1) (3.9) (0.4) Dewan Housing Finance Ltd (DHFL), one of India’s largest housing Hangseng 27,657 (0.5) (7.6) (3.9) finance companies, announced that it has stopped accepting fresh Shanghai 2,906 1.2 (9.9) 3.3 public deposits and renewals of existing deposits with immediate Value traded (Rs cr) 21-May % Chg Day effect. This, in view of the recent revision of the credit rating of its Cash BSE 3,069 (11.7) fixed deposit programme. (Livemint) Cash NSE 37,240 (15.0) Derivatives 532,797 (7.8) Larsen & Toubro's standalone market capitalisation will touch Rs 3 trn and revenue will reach Rs 2 trn in five years as strategic Net inflows (Rs cr) 20-May MTD YTD FII 1,607 (3,395) 64,827 initiatives like L&T NxT have helped in making giant strides, Group Mutual Fund (215) 7,641 4,980 Chairman A M Naik said. (Livemint) Nifty Gainers & Losers Price Chg Vol US insurance broking firm Arthur J Gallagher & Co has agreed to pick 21-May (Rs) (%) (mn) up a minority stake in Edelweiss Insurance Brokers, a part of Gainers Edelweiss Group (TOI) Dr Reddy's Lab 2,667 3.0 2.0 Bharti Infra 276 2.4 4.7 Asian Granito to sell its 50 percent stake in its JV with Italian based Britannia Ind 2,849 1.7 0.5 Panaria Group and exit the agreement. The joint venture between Losers both the companies was entered in February 2012. (Hindu) Tata Motors 177 (7.0) 57.8 BPCL 374 (4.4) 8.4 FDC board to consider share buyback on May 24. (Hindu) Zee Entertainment 348 (4.1) 13.4 Endurance Technologies - CRISIL reaffirmed AA/Positive to the Advances / Declines (BSE) long-term bank credit facilities and A1+ to the short term credit 21-May A B T Total % total facilities/CPs. (moneycontrol). Advances 133 336 60 529 100 Declines 328 636 51 1,015 192 India Glycols approved fund raising, subject to the approval of the Unchanged - 26 14 40 8 members, for an amount not exceeding Rs 2.5 bn. (moneycontrol) Commodity % Chg Vedanta: Declared as preferred bidder for two copper blocks with a 21-May 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths combined area of 1585 HA area in Maharashtra. (Hindu) Crude (US$/BBL) 71.8 (0.6) (3.1) 6.9 Gold (US$/OZ) 1,274.7 (0.2) (0.1) (4.1) Rating agency ICRA, on Tuesday, downgraded the long-term ratings Silver (US$/OZ) 14.5 (0.1) (3.7) (9.2) of IDFC First Bank after the lender posted weak results. “The rating Debt / Forex Market 21-May 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths downgrade considers IDFC First Bank’s weak earnings profile, given 10 yr G-Sec yield % 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 the elevated cost-to-income ratio because of the ongoing branch Re/US$ 69.7 69.7 69.7 71.2 expansion, which has been pressurising the operating profitability, and an increase in credit provisions on account of unanticipated Nifty fresh stressed exposures identified by the bank in the fourth quarter 12,400 of 2018-19,” it said in a statement. (Hindu) 11,900 11,400 What’s Inside 10,900 Result Update: Bodal Chemicals Ltd 10,400 9,900 Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express, IE = Indian May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Express, BL = Business Line, BQ = BloombergQuint, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Stock Exchange, MC = Moneycontrol Source: Bloomberg Kotak Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by the Private Client Group. MAY 22, 2019 Result Update BODAL CHEMICALS LTD Stock Details PRICE RS.115 TARGET RS.109 SELL Market cap (Rs mn) : 14076 52-wk Hi/Lo (Rs) : 156 / 90 Bodal Chemicals (BCL) Q4FY19 operating performance was below our Face Value (Rs) : 2 estimates due to inventory loss of Rs50-60mn and increase in other 3M Avg. daily vol (Nos) : 171,321 expenses, while PAT was in-line with estimates due to higher than expected Shares o/s (mn) : 122 other income. On the revenue front, higher contribution from Dye Source: Bloomberg Intermediates and Dyestuffs led to 17.4%/3% YoY/QoQ jump in revenue. Financial Summary Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY19 FY20E FY21E Key Highlights Revenue 14,235 15,843 17,138 Dyestuffs and Dye intermediates production grew by 19% and 8% YoY, Growth (%) 22.1 11.3 8.2 EBITDA 2,361 2,577 2,813 respectively, while Basic Chemicals production declined by 2% YoY in EBITDA margin (%) 16.6 16.3 16.4 Q4FY19. PAT 1,413 1,557 1,665 Subsidiaries: SPS performance improved sequentially and reported revenue, EPS 11.6 12.7 13.6 EBITDA and PAT of Rs269 mn, Rs18 mn and Rs17 mn (loss of Rs18 mn in EPS Growth (%) 15.9 10.2 6.9 BV (Rs/share) 68 80 93 3QFY19), respectively. On the other hand, Trion chemicals continue to report Dividend/share (Rs) 0.8 0.8 0.8 loss. Trion reported loss of Rs18mn in 4QFY19. ROE (%) 17.0 15.5 13.5 The trial production of Thionyl Chloride (TC) capacity of 36,000 tonnes per ROCE (%) 11.4 11.2 9.9 annum started during the quarter and commercial production is expected to P/E (x) 9.9 9.0 8.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 6.0 5.0 start in 1QFY20 (delayed by one quarter). P/BV (x) 1.7 1.4 1.2 Dyestuff expansion: The Company added dyestuff (powder) capacity of Source: Company, Kotak Securities - PCG 6,000 MTPA during the quarter, thereby taking the total installed capacity to Shareholding Pattern (%) 35,000MTPA. (%) Mar 19 Dec-18 Sep-18 Next phase of expansion: BCL announce its next phase of growth towards Promoters 57.4 57.4 55.7 more integration of business model, diversification into new products (Chlor FII 6.2 6.2 6.5 DII 6.5 6.5 6.6 Alkali plant, Turquoise Blue and Sulphuric plant), and addition of marketing Others 29.9 29.9 31.3 base at Tukey. The company is likely to spend Rs11.68 bn for the next phase Source: Bloomberg of expansion over the next three years. Price Performance (%) Management expects, the completion of the expansion plan, will enable BCL (%) 1M 3M 6M to offer new products, expand export markets and strengthen its margin. Bodal Chemicals (5.2) 20.2 0.3 Nifty (0.4) 8.5 10.5 Quarterly performance table Source: Bloomberg Particulars (Rs Mn) Q4FY19 Q4FY18 % YoY Q3FY19 % QoQ Price chart (Rs) Net Sales 3,443 2,932 17.4 3,343 3.0 Raw Materials 2,271 1,854 22.5 2,131 6.6 160 Employee Costs 124 127 184 145 Total Expenditures 3,004 2,483 2,786 130 EBITDA 438 449 (2.5) 557 (21.4) 115 EBITDA Margin 12.7 15.3 16.7 100 Depreciation 58 (98) 55 85 EBIT 381 548 502 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Interest 28 11 27 Source: Bloomberg Other Income 74 28 5 PBT 427 565 480 Tax 133 170 196 PAT 294 395 (25.7) 285 3.1 Share of Asso 0 (4) 0 PAT 294 392 (25.0) 285 3.1 Source: Company, Kotak Securities – Private Client Research Jatin Damania [email protected] +91 22 6218 6440 Kotak Securities – Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2 MAY 22, 2019 Valuation & outlook Given the future road map in terms of revenue visibility and margin expansion plans in place, by undertaking an aggressive capex plan, we believe that long term story still remains intact. In the near term, contribution for Dyestuff expansion shall support the earnings, but a weak performance from Trion chemicals (BCL has not achieved breakeven also) would partly offset the benefit. Factoring 4QFY19 performance, we have revised our FY20E earnings to Rs12.7 (earlier Rs13) and introducing FY21E with earnings estimate of Rs13.6. The stock is up ~18% since our last report dated 7th Feb, 2019 (rating BUY) and at CMP, we believe that at current valuation of 9.0x/8.4X FY20E/FY21E earnings, the stock is trading at fair valuation and re-rating will take some more time.