Long Term Water Needs & Supply
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LONG TERM WATER NEEDS AND SUPPLY STUDY July 2017 Prepared by: Long-Term Needs and Water Supply Study for the Amador Water Agency Final Prepared by RMC Water and Environment July 2017 Long-Term Needs and Water Supply Study Amador Water Agency Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ 1 2 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Agency Background and Purpose of Study .................................................................................. 4 2.2 Wild and Scenic River Designation .............................................................................................. 7 2.3 Climate Change ............................................................................................................................. 8 3 Demand Projections .......................................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Service Area ................................................................................................................................ 11 3.2 Methodologies ............................................................................................................................. 11 3.2.1 Population Growth Projections ........................................................................................... 11 3.2.2 Historical Growth in Water Connections ............................................................................ 12 3.2.3 Land Use ............................................................................................................................. 13 3.3 Demand Management and Conservation .................................................................................... 19 3.4 Climate Change Impacts ............................................................................................................. 20 3.5 Total Projected Demand.............................................................................................................. 24 3.6 Future Demands in Amador County Not Served by the Agency ................................................ 25 4 Supply Projections ............................................................................................................................ 27 4.1 Current System Supplies ............................................................................................................. 27 4.1.1 Groundwater ....................................................................................................................... 27 4.1.2 Surface Water ...................................................................................................................... 27 4.2 Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology ...................................................................................... 28 4.2.1 Hydrologic Impacts: Methodology ..................................................................................... 28 4.2.2 Hydrologic Impacts Results: Streamflow Magnitude ......................................................... 32 4.2.3 Hydrologic Impacts Results: Seasonality............................................................................ 36 4.2.4 Hydrologic Impacts Results: Inter-Annual Variability ....................................................... 38 5 Water Supply Reliability .................................................................................................................. 40 5.1 Historical Reliability ................................................................................................................... 40 5.2 Projected Reliability .................................................................................................................... 41 5.3 Potential Supply Projects ............................................................................................................ 42 5.4 Potential Impacts of Wild and Scenic Designation on Supply Projects ...................................... 45 6 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 46 7 References .......................................................................................................................................... 47 July 2017 i Long-Term Needs and Water Supply Study Amador Water Agency List of Figures Figure 1: Proposed Wild and Scenic Designation on the Mokelumne River ................................................ 1 Figure 2: Amador Water Agency’s Current Service Area and Future Areas Anticipated to be Served at Buildout ................................................................................................................................................ 2 Figure 3: Seasonal Shift of Inflow into Salt Springs Reservoir Due to Climate Change.............................. 3 Figure 4: Frequency of Consecutive Dry Years under Warm-Dry Climate Change .................................... 3 Figure 5: Types of Potential Projects to Address Deficits ............................................................................ 4 Figure 6. Amador Water Agency Service Area ............................................................................................ 6 Figure 7: Proposed Wild & Scenic Designation on the Mokelumne River .................................................. 8 Figure 8: DWR Recommended GCMs and Selected GCMs ...................................................................... 10 Figure 9: Boundaries of the Three Regions Considered in the Land Use Analysis .................................... 14 Figure 10: Amador County Land Use Type at Build-Out ........................................................................... 15 Figure 11: Areas the Agency May Serve at Build-Out ............................................................................... 16 Figure 12: Projected Water Demand through 2100 Based on Land Use Methodology .............................. 18 Figure 13: Projected Demands by Use Type .............................................................................................. 19 Figure 12. General Approach to Determining Impact of Climate Change on Demand .............................. 20 Figure 15: Historical vs Predicted Annual Deliveries per Capita ............................................................... 21 Figure 16: Amador County and the Spatial Extent of GCM Data .............................................................. 22 Figure 17: Projected Average Daily Maximum Temperature (2000-2099) ................................................ 23 Figure 18: Projected Annual Precipitation (2000-2099) ............................................................................. 23 Figure 19. Impacts of Climate Change on Demand .................................................................................... 24 Figure 20: JVID Service Area and its Relation to AWA Service Areas within Amador County ............... 26 Figure 21. Long-Term Precipitation (1907-2016) at Electra Powerhouse .................................................. 29 Figure 22. Streamflow Exceedance Probability Curve above Salt Springs Reservoir ................................ 33 Figure 23. Streamflow Exceedance Probability Curve above Tiger Creek Afterbay ................................. 34 Figure 24. Streamflow Exceedance Probability Curve above Pardee Reservoir ........................................ 34 Figure 25. Summary Statistics: Streamflow above Salt Springs Reservoir ................................................ 35 Figure 26. Summary Statistics: Streamflow above Tiger Creek Afterbay .................................................. 35 Figure 27. Summary Statistics: Streamflow above Pardee Reservoir ......................................................... 36 Figure 28. Seasonal Change in Mean Streamflow (cfs) at Tiger Creek Afterbay under Warm-Wet (CNRM) Climate Scenario ................................................................................................................. 37 Figure 29: Average Monthly Inflow into Salt Springs Reservoir ............................................................... 38 Figure 30: Projected Frequency of Consecutive Years Below Historical Median Precipitation for Warm- Dry Climate Scenario ......................................................................................................................... 39 July 2017 ii Long-Term Needs and Water Supply Study Amador Water Agency Figure 31: Historical and Warm-Dry Climate Scenario Projected Precipitation in Amador County ......... 40 Figure 32: Demand and Deficit for Baseline and Climate Change Scenarios ............................................ 41 Figure 33: Types of Projects to Address Deficits ....................................................................................... 44 Figure 34: Example Projects to Address Deficits ....................................................................................... 45 List of Tables Table 1: Projected Change in Average Climate Values between 2000-2015 and 2085-2099 .................... 22 Table 2: Demand Projections at Buildout ................................................................................................... 25 Table 3: Frequency of Consecutive Years Below Historical Median ........................................................