Our Post- Future A Comparison of Two Scenarios Following the Global Peak in Oil Production

odern society is tied to petroleum more Hubbert successfully predicted that the M than any source of energy and continental United States would peak in oil materials. Peak global extraction of oil means production in the early 1970s – a daunting ever diminishing supplies – with no alternative reality that has made the U.S. economy source or increasingly reliant on oil imports to meet combination of growing domestic demand. sources capable of replacing oil at Despite growing agreement that Hubbert’s anywhere near the general theory is sound, considerable debate same net-energy remains as to how the inevitable decline in oil balance, flow rate, supplies will play out, and what the or volume. implications will be for society at large. In this appendix, we’ve outlined two contrasting In the 1950s the well theories: (1.) author John Michael Greer’s known U.S. geologist “Catabolic Collapse” theory, which predicts M. King Hubbert that will follow a stair-step noted that oil discoveries graphed over time pattern of overall decline, punctuated by tended to follow a bell-shaped curve. He brief periods of economic recovery; and (2.) supposed that the rate of oil production oil analyst Jan Lundberg’s “petrocollapse” would follow a similar curve, now known as theory, which postulates a steep, cliff-like the “Hubbert Curve” (see figure above). drop-off in oil production, with dramatic Despite widespread criticism at the time, consequences for our economy.

Catabolic Collapse: Stair-step Decline How will our own society’s catabolic collapse Excerpted from Frank Kaminski’s review of proceed? Greer sees us on the verge of a John Michael Greer’s The Long Descent couple of decades of economic contraction, chronic energy shortages, declining public In his book, The Long Descent, John Michael health, political turmoil and vanishing Greer foresees a period of glacial knowledge and cultural heritage. This crisis deindustrialization driven by a process that he period, he refers to as “catabolic collapse.” Greer begins predicts, will be with a bit of background on peak oil, the Club followed by a of Rome’s The Limits to Growth study, some respite of perhaps lessons from past societal collapses and the 25 years or so, difference between problems (which are during which solvable) and predicaments (which aren’t). industrial He makes a strong case for peak oil being a civilization’s predicament rather than a problem. newfound relief from the lavish Drawing on the theory of catabolic collapse, energy demands Greer outlines in detail how our predicament of universal is likely to play out during the decades and motoring and centuries ahead. His theory shows how electrification, civilizations headed for collapse tend to climate-controlled buildings, modern decline in a gradual, downward stair-step of medicine and other present-day amenities will repeated crises and recoveries. They don’t buy it a little breathing room. But this respite undergo the sudden, catastrophic free fall will, in turn, be followed by another round of envisioned by diehard peak oil doomers. crises that will rid our civilization of further layers of social complexity, and so on. Eventually, the developed world will assume cities, towns and rural neighborhoods in order an agrarian lifestyle built around local to better meet those challenges. communities and sustainable resources. But this change will happen so slowly that no one On an individual level, everyone needs to alive today will be around to witness the end sharply curtail energy usage and find low- result. Thus, Greer maintains, our energies tech ways of doing things, in order to prepare should be focused not on surviving the end of for the inevitable shortages. We also need to industrial civilization, but on making it through position ourselves into occupational niches the imminent crisis period that will be but one that meet actual human needs, since these brief interval within that larger context. are the jobs that are likely to stay in demand. In the face of declining public health, each To this end, Greer lays out some strategies and person should learn to take charge of his or technologies for weathering the coming her own health. Lastly, we must help foster decades of crisis. The appropriate response to local community networking, which will be the challenges we face, Greer believes, is not essential in preserving basic services like to set up survivalist enclaves or lifeboat public safety and sanitation when the federal communities, but to reshape our existing government proves ineffectual.

Petrocollapse: A Steep Drop-off in Oil community gardens will be stripped clean, by Jan Lundberg, CultureChange.org and car commuters will not be able to get to jobs. Businesses will shut, in part due to their e face an imminent and abrupt oil-free reliance on “just in time delivery.” There will W future with dramatically lower per capita be no floor to the crash until local food energy use. Most literate people have heard supplies can meet what the remaining of peak oil, but many have been led to population size has become. assume there will be a slow, down-slope of extracted supply past the peak. This is The oil industry’s only model is growth. The theoretical, based on estimates of reserves only large-scale economic model known is for remaining in the ground, accurate or not. growth, made possible in the past from petroleum supplies in ever-increasing What must be appreciated are the market- abundance. These sources are collapsing in supply dynamics and oil industry functions oil-producing countries, and demand will such as refinery constraints. These inflexibilities never be met by tar sands, heavy oils, or will trigger not just sudden, crippling shortages biofuels. As oil supply plummets, the industry but the inability of the oil industry to maintain will be unable to adapt. It cannot just ratchet a flow of products at a sustained, long-term down its refining output to follow a smooth level – a scenario which I call “petrocollapse." depletion curve. Refineries must utilize their capacity at high levels to produce a balance In 1979 my firm of products (gasoline, distillates, fuel oils). This Lundberg Survey need will remain even as lower-producing accurately wells are capped and already rusting facilities predicted that a require ever-growing investments and retrofits. 9% shortfall would lead to The quick slackening of business and skyrocketing employment along with worldwide demand- prices, panic destruction for oil are features of buying, and petrocollapse. We are in an early phase, with hoarding – what a sudden, massive supply-crunch inevitable. oil investment The hoped-for “recovery” without cheap banker calls a “run on the energy and other resources for a growing energy bank.” When the next global supply population cannot happen. It is just a matter crisis occurs without the oil industry's or of time for the next Oil Shock and great government's ability to come to the rescue, demand-destruction for oil and other key the socioeconomic effects will be rapid and consumer products. This will transform the devastating. In days, grocery stores and modern lifestyle to post-industrial, local living.

Bay Localize – September 2009