3 Year Strategic Plan

Carlisle College

2015/16 - 2017/18

Approved by Corporation Board July 2015

Section Contents Page No

Section 1 Mission & Strategic Aims 1

Section 2 Strategic overview 2 - 5

Section 3 Educational Character 6 & Values

Section 4 Curriculum Strategy 7 - 9

Section 5 Quality Strategy for Teaching Learning 10 - 12 Assessment

Section 6 Leadership and Management Strategy 13 - 16

Appendices Appendix 1 - Key Performance Indicators (For Board Issue only)

Appendix 2 – Supporting Economic Information

Annex Annex 1 – HE Strategy

Section 1 Mission And Strategic Aims

Mission Statement: “To be recognised as an outstanding and inclusive College providing life changing skills and experiences”.

Public Value Statement Carlisle College contributes to the social, economic, physical and cultural well-being of the community it serves through the delivery of education, training and learning to support the development of individuals and businesses.

Strategic Aims

The Curriculum SA1: Strategy To provide learning opportunities for the whole community that contribute to economic prosperity through meeting the needs of learners and employers.

Quality Strategy SA2: To provide inspirational, enjoyable and successful learning experiences that support learners to achieve their ambitions.

SA3 – Leadership SA3: and Management To provide an environment and culture that is based on Strategy continuous improvement and the core value that students are at the heart of what we do.

Section 2 Strategic Overview

2.1 Introduction

Carlisle College annually updates the 3 year rolling strategic plan to ensure that we keep our strategies relevant to the changing world in which we operate.

The central mission of the College, the Public Value Statement, our central values and the 3 key strategic aims remain unchanged but the key sections and the objectives we set ourselves to achieve the strategic aims are refreshed in order to steer our operational activity on a year by year basis.

The fundamental mission of the College is reviewed on a 3 year cycle and this is due on 2015/16. This strategic plan update therefore concentrates on the actions and activities we need to focus on for 2015/16 and in preparing for 2016/17 and beyond.

We will continue to build on key strengths and priorities as follows: Our commitment to inclusion and continuing our effective support for our learners in helping them to achieve their qualifications and their next goals in life. The role we play in our local community in contributing to the economic growth of our business and wider community developments. Strong partnership working that ensures our learners and the Community can benefit from wider opportunities that would not be possible otherwise.

We recognise also that there are challenges and opportunities to be addressed. These will include: Responding quickly and effectively to opportunities associated with apprenticeship growth targets and associated traineeship and higher level/degree apprenticeship developments. Ensuring quality of provision in all areas of activity at a time of diminishing funding levels. Ensuring we have the staffing and resources in place to deal with the increasing challenges of maths and English GCSE requirements and funding conditions. Developing a very clear picture of the future direction of the College as the political and funding pressures for the longer term become clearer.

2.2 The Political Context

As this annual update of our 3 year rolling strategic plan is being written, the impact of the policies of a new Government are still emerging. What is apparent however is that the Further Education sector is facing the prospect of funding constraints and potentially radical structural changes that could change the Further Education sector dramatically.

For the economy the Government’s intention is to continue with its long term economic plan. Key pledges that will be important for the Further Education sector and for Cumbria include: Creating a ‘Northern Powerhouse’ through investment. Achieving full employment by helping businesses create two million extra jobs over the course of this parliament. Creating 3 million new apprenticeships.

In relation to education the intentions include: Significant investment to create ‘good school placements’ and protection of school budgets. Growth in free schools and a University Technical College (UTC) in reach of every town. Scrapping the cap on higher education numbers. Reaffirmation of the importance of English and maths.

Continued reform of apprenticeships and the development of degree apprenticeship. Continued devolution to City regions and LEP areas including skills funding. Continued drive for quality of provision.

Against this backdrop is the very real challenge of funding constraints across the public sector. For colleges this means the prospect of further cuts to the adult funding budget. Funding may be protected for the statutory school ages from 5-16 but not for 16-18, so there is a potential future risk in this area of funding for colleges.

The focus for funding priorities will be very much around the ambition of creating 3 million new apprenticeships. This represents a 33% growth in current levels of activity. It is yet to be seen how this will be achieved and how traineeships, trailblazer apprentices and the new higher level and degree apprenticeships will be prioritised and funded.

Other opportunities will arise on a more local level as Cumbria LEP rolls out its Strategic Economic Plan and the European funding strategy in Cumbria.

2.3 Economic Social and Demographic Issues

Economic planning is now very much driven by Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs). All 39 LEPs across the country have Strategic Economic Plans (or Growth Plans) for their area that form the basis of negotiated growth funds to support business and job growth. Alongside these economic plans LEPs have been required to produce a plan for the prioritisation of considerable European funding (including EU funds for Skills) that will be allocated from 2015 as well as capital funding for FE.

The Cumbria LEP priorities for growth are focussed on four key themes, i.e.: Advanced Manufacturing growth Nuclear Energy and Excellence Vibrant Rural and Visitor Economy Strategic connectivity of the M6 corridor.

In addition there are four cross cutting themes: Business Support Skills Development Infrastructure Improvements Environmental Sustainability

A process is currently underway to refresh and further develop the Skills plan for Cumbria to support the growth plan and steer the priorities for European funding for skills. This plan will be crucial in steering the resources and focus of the future skills provision in the County.

There is recognition however that Cumbria is diverse in its economic and social profile and that each area of the County needs to develop and grow in line with its own local opportunities and challenges. Carlisle City Council are also developing a refreshed economic strategy and then a Skills Plan that will be more focussed on the immediate locality. Carlisle College draws learners from a wide area of up to 45 miles from the City. This catchment area stretches from the edge of Northumberland, the South West of Scotland and into West Cumbria. The majority of learners however come from Carlisle City and the rural villages and towns of the Carlisle district.

Economic and demographic data is captured largely at district level and therefore the Carlisle District is the best basis of analysing the economic, social and demographic factors

that will influence our plans. A detailed report for Carlisle is attached as Annex 1 to this strategic plan.

The College has invested in the Responsive College Unit (RCU) tool, Vector, for analysing market share of 16-18, adult and apprenticeship provision. This is used to refine curriculum planning and marketing strategies.

Key themes that can be drawn from this overview are: Rates of economic activity in Carlisle are higher than national average Aging population profile with declining population of working age. 5,145 registered business units in Carlisle district contributing on estimated £1.9m in economic value. Large majority of small and micro businesses employing less than 10 people. A reliance on jobs with a number of large companies particularly in food processing (e.g. McVitties, Northern Foods, Carrs Milling) as well as the public sector, i.e. jobs in education, local authorities and the NHS.

The local economy has continues to grow. Carlisle district has seen the largest number of new job posting than any other area in Cumbria and at June 2015 the percentage of working age population in receipt of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) or Universal Credit (UC) stood at 1.25% compared to almost 2.5% in the North West.

2.4 Technological Change

For Cumbria the technological innovation with the Nuclear and Energy area is focussed on West Cumbria with the prospect of 3 new nuclear power stations. The Centre of Nuclear Excellence (CONE) has been formed as a partnership of employers, local authorities, agencies and skills providers to focus on how the significant investment and growth in jobs can be supported over the coming decades. CONE embraces a crescent stretching from Carlisle in the north down to Barrow in the south as being the immediate geographical area that will be impacted. For Carlisle, some businesses are, or aspire to be, part of the nuclear supply chain.

The new National Nuclear College is likely to incorporate the University of Cumbria and Lakes College as elements of the Cumbrian Hub. The University of Cumbria is also leading an approach to the development of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths) in partnership with the four general FE Colleges in Cumbria.

For Carlisle, the technology priorities for local manufacturing businesses are not dominated by nuclear; food production and other non-nuclear production are of key importance. Our new Advanced Manufacturing Centre which we are hopeful will come on stream on 2015/16 will be a significantly beneficial resource to those businesses in enhancing the skill levels of their current and future workforces.

Digital technology continues to grow in importance across the whole of the College. Developing technologies and how they are used, particularly in the use of mobile devices, requires continual investment not only in hardware but in training and development in their use.

2.5 Legal

The responsibilities of the College in legal terms are ever changing and through our policies and procedures we seek to ensure we comply with legislation in all areas. In many respects as part of our educational character and ethos we seek to go beyond the legal minimum and

4 be seen as exemplars for the community and the sector.

A key priority for 2015/16 and beyond will be responding to new requirements relating to Prevent and the promotion of Fundamental British Values.

2.6 Environmental

The College is aware of its environmental responsibility and actively aims to promote this amongst staff, students, visitors and suppliers.

Recycling, procurement, energy efficiency and materials usage are just some of the areas the College reflects its environmental ethos. The College has a renewable energy centre within the campus, providing training with the latest technology that is expanding the range of training opportunities available

Environmental and sustainability issues are a premier consideration during any capital scheme, and through recent schemes the College has introduced energy efficient lighting and glazing, solar panels and rainwater harvesting. Any future investment will continue to include the prioritisation of environmental considerations.

Section 3 Educational Character & Values

The educational character of the college is more than simply the range of provision we offer and the type of learner we provide for. It is also about how we do things. The ethos of the College is embodied in the College Values which underpin staff and management behaviours and guides the way we operate. The College Values are displayed below:

Section 4 - Curriculum Strategy

Strategic Aim: SA1 – To provide learning opportunities for the whole community that contribute to economic prosperity through meeting the needs of learners and employers.

SA1.1 14-19 Year Olds The College aims to continually develop an appropriate curriculum offer for academic and vocational provision that will enable learners to progress into further education, higher education, apprenticeships or employment.

Measurable outcome(s): • Increase the market share for recruitment from the local cohort of 16-19 year old learners. • Increase the % of learners progressing into further and higher education, apprenticeships or employment.

Key Objectives are to: SA1.1.1 Continue to offer 14-16 opportunities to local schools in vocational subjects and in line with current expectations on vocational interest and behaviour. SA1.1.2 Increase the numbers of 14-16 year olds progressing from school link programmes to full time study programmes. SA1.1.3 Plan 16-19 study programmes to meet individual learner needs in response to the raising of the participation age. SA1.1.4 Work with local Advice & Guidance Services and employers to engage learners who are not in employment or training or employed without training into training including Traineeships. SA1.1.5 Continue to focus on the development of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths) subjects for 16-19 year olds. SA1.1.6 Develop cross college level one and level two vocational pathways to enable learners to develop the necessary skills to progress to vocational study programmes, employment, higher level vocational study programmes or apprenticeships. SA1.1.7 Provide meaningful work experience opportunities for all 16-19 year old learners on programmes of study.

SA1.2 Inclusion The College aims to work collaboratively with other agencies in order to ensure the curriculum offer is inclusive and meets the needs of all learners.

Measurable outcome(s): Ensure all learners succeed on their programmes in line with College and national averages.

Key Objectives are to: SA1.2.1 Deliver, where appropriate, accredited qualifications within Foundation Learning that enable learners to progress into further learning, independent or supported employment or living. SA1.2.2 Build on the existing partnerships with local dedicated special needs schools to ensure transition arrangements support learners. SA1.2.3 Collaborate with Cumbria County Council to ensure needs of the learners are met where appropriate with local provision. SA1.2.4 Implement new duties on FE Colleges from changes under the Children and Families Act.

SA1.3 Mathematics & English The College aims to ensure programmes of learning enable learners to acquire the qualifications and skills in English and Mathematics to enable them to progress to further learning and function competently in the workplace.

Measurable outcome(s): To ensure all learners participate in improving their maths/English skills up to level 2.

Key Objectives are to: SA1.3.1 Ensure all full time and where appropriate part time learners complete an appropriate diagnostic assessment at the outset of their programme and guide them onto GCSE English and/or Mathematics, or Functional Skills where appropriate, to enable progression and achievement. SA1.3.2 Provide ESOL qualifications where appropriate in the community, workplace and college to meet the needs of the non-English speaking communities of Carlisle. SA1.3.3 Increase the number of learners achieving English and/or Mathematics qualifications up to and including level 2. SA1.3.4 Ensure learners’ receive the necessary support to achieve in maths/English. SA1.3.4 Embed maths and English in the delivery of study programmes.

SA1.4 Higher Education The College aims to offer a HE curriculum that meets the needs of individuals and employers.

Measurable outcome(s): Key targets for recruitment and fee income area achieved.

Key Objectives are to: SA1.4.1 Continue to monitor and review the impact of the fees policy on HE recruitment. SA1.4.2 Increase the participation rates of under-represented groups within HE, particularly in relation to vocational routes and progression from FE and apprenticeships. SA1.4.3 Continue to review potential opportunities with HE providers to ensure skills needs can be met.

SA1.5 Skills Provision for Adults The College aims to offer a range of skills and learning opportunities that meet individual aspirations and employer needs.

Measurable outcome(s): To maximise the adult funding allocation including 24+ loans & project funding for targeted groups.

Key Objectives are to: SA1.5.1 Expand the curriculum offer to support unemployed individuals to develop new skills in line with labour market opportunities SA1.5.2 Ensure the curriculum offer meets the needs of adult learners seeking to develop their skills in line with their personal and/or career goals. SA1.5.3 Maximise project opportunities including ESF, to reach specific target groups.

SA1.6 Skills Provision for Employers and Apprentices The College aims to offer a range of skills and learning opportunities that meet individual aspirations and employer needs including apprenticeships.

Measurable outcome(s): To maximise apprenticeship funding allocation and alternative funding streams.

Key Objectives are to: SA1.6.1 To increase the number of businesses we work with. SA1.6.2 To increase the number of apprentices engaged by employers SA1.6.3 To ensure our courses are developing the skills that employers want. SA1.6.4 Develop partnership and subcontractor provision to broaden the opportunities for employers and to reach target groups. SA1.6.5 To provide dedicated employer related communication and feedback.

Section 5 - Quality Strategy

Strategic Aim: SA2 – To provide inspirational, enjoyable and successful learning experiences that support learners to achieve their ambitions.

SA2.1 Quality The College aims to continue to focus on quality improvement through continuous development of the quality assurance processes.

Measurable outcome(s): Raise all curriculum area self-assessment grades to at least good by robust and accurate self-assessment processes and quality improvement plans that lead to measureable quality improvements.

Key Objectives are to: SA2.1.1 Monitor controls within partnership arrangements on a regular basis to ensure delivery meets the required standards. SA2.1.2 Achieve external quality standards where appropriate to demonstrate to stakeholders our commitment to high quality provision and services. SA2.1.3 Ensure the College is extensively prepared for external inspection of quality of provision in the Ofsted framework. SA2.1.4 Ensure the College fully complies with the QAA Code of Practice. SA2.1.5 Implement internal quality audit processes to meet external regulatory requirements.

SA2.2 Information Advice and Guidance The College aims to ensure all learners receive information to help them access learning and opportunities to enable them to make appropriate decisions on progression.

Measurable outcome(s): Learner retention remains at or above national averages.

Key Objectives are to: SA2.2.1 Ensure all learners receive information, advice and guidance to help them access appropriate provision to enable them to achieve. SA2.2.2 Provide education and employment guidance and induct learners to help with the transition to College. SA2.2.3 In preparation for progression, on completion of their programme provide learners with timely career and education advice and guidance to help them progress on their next steps in training or employment.

SA2.3 Ambition And Support for Learners The College aims to ensure learners benefit from high expectations, engagement, care and support.

Measurable outcome(s): Learners’ support needs are quickly and accurately identified and appropriate support is in place throughout their programme to support achievement.

Key Objectives are to: SA2.3.1 Initially assess learners’ starting points and set high expectations and targets and monitor their progress towards achievement. SA2.3.2 Provide tutorial and enrichment activities to support achievement. SA2.3.3 Increase opportunities for learners to participate in community/citizenship projects. SA2.3.4 Offer sport and “be healthy” activities to contribute to the well-being of learners. SA2.3.5 Provide pastoral support and coaching to ensure continuing progress on programme.

SA2.4 Quality of Teaching, Learning & Assessment The College aims to deliver best practice in teaching and assessment to promote learning and improve outcomes for learners.

Measurable outcome(s): % of lesson observations which are good or better increase percentage of qualification achievement.

Key Objectives are to: SA2.4.1 Raise the quality of teaching, learning and assessment so that all lessons are outstanding or good. SA2.4.2 Ensure all teaching staff are equipped with the skills to deliver high quality teaching and assessment through effective and planned staff development. SA2.4.3 Collaborate with partners to share best practice in teaching, learning and assessment. SA2.4.4 Promote equality and diversity through teaching and learning. SA2.4.5 Feedback to learners informing them on how to improve. SA2.4.6 Embrace new and emerging technologies to support learning and teaching and enable all learners to have access to appropriate and engaging multi- media facilities. SA2.4.7 Develop e-learning and interactive technology to allow flexible and distributed learning and comply with new Government expectations in relation to on-line delivery. SA2.4.8 Plan learning and assessment and monitor progress to meet individual needs.

SA2.5 Outcomes for Learners The College aims to work to ensure that programmes for learners promote achievement of skills and knowledge that enable learners to successfully progress into further education, higher education, apprenticeships or employment.

Measurable outcome(s): Success rates are at or above national averages across all qualifications. Increase percentage of learners destination outcomes into further/higher education or sustained employment.

Key Objectives are to: SA2.5.1 Improve learners’ value added scores so they achieve their full potential. SA2.5.2 Take measures to ensure that achievement gaps between different groups of learners are narrowing. SA2.5.3 Raise success rates on all programmes to above national average. SA2.5.4 Engage learners in activities that develop their personal, social, enterprise and employability skills. SA2.5.5 Improve attendance across the College to above 85%. SA2.5.6 Increase the number of learners progressing to higher level qualifications and to jobs that meet local and national needs. SA2.5.7 Continue to reduce attrition rates and improve programme success rates for HE.

Section 6 – Leadership and Management Strategy

Strategic Aim: SA3 – To provide an environment and culture that is based on continuous improvement and the core value that students are at the heart of what we do.

SA3.1 College Governance The College aims to practice ethical and accountable governance within a dynamic Corporate framework.

Measurable outcome(s): To achieve key targets in terms of Board member attendance, representativeness, quality of learning and development for governors, and accountability through publication of governance information.

Key Objectives are to: SA3.1.1 Focus on the College’s purpose, outcomes for communities, and learners. SA3.1.2 Perform effectively both as individuals, and as a team, in defined roles and responsibilities. SA3.1.3 Promote values for the whole organisation and behave with integrity. SA3.1.4 Take informed, transparent, decisions and manage risk. SA3.1.5 Develop capacity and capability to be effective SA3.1.6 Engage stakeholders and make accountability real.

SA3.2 Equality, Diversity and Inclusion The College aims to provide an inclusive environment in which learners and staff feel valued and safe and are able to realise their full potential.

Measurable outcome(s): Work beyond compliance in relation to Equality and Diversity legislation and embed in all areas of College.

Key Objectives are to: SA3.2.1 Establish a LGBT group and increase membership of the group year upon year and seek external LGBT recognition. SA3.2.2 Establish a set of student values and behaviours. SA3.2.3 Increase the number of male and female learners participating in non traditional occupational areas. SA3.2.4 Achieve 100% of staff and governors completing equality and diversity training.

SA3.3 Finance, Resources and Compliance The College aims to maintain satisfactory financial health and internal control while maximising the effective and efficient resourcing of College activity

Measurable outcome(s): • Financial health remains at least satisfactory • Student satisfaction with accommodation and resources remains high. • Audit outcomes are at least satisfactory.

Key Objectives are to: SA3.3.1 Utilise a robust curriculum led staffing and resource allocation and monitoring systems to maximise efficiency. SA3.3.2 Ensure effective use of IT resources in enhancing the learner experience and the effectiveness and efficiency of College staff. SA3.3.3 Implement nationally recommended pay awards subject to affordability. SA3.3.4 Return to an operating surplus (Pre FRS17) within the period of the plan and maximise funding opportunities that generate income and are consistent with the College’s Mission. SA3.3.5 Maintain robust systems of internal control, ensuring unqualified audit reports, viability of partnerships and projects and compliance with statutory and funding body requirements. SA3.3.6 Ensure College accommodation, facilities and resources are of a high standard and contribute to the quality of teaching, learning and assessment.

SA3.4 A Framework for High performing Staff The College aims to recruit, retain, support and continuously develop staff in a culture that embodies the College values and associated behaviours expected of staff and managers.

Measurable outcome(s): • High proportion of performance reviews are undertaken in a timely manner • Sickness absence levels are below national averages. • CPD opportunities have a demonstrable impact on performance

Key Objectives are to: SA3.4.1 Maintain an effective Performance Management system that reflects high aspirations for professional standards across all College departments. SA3.4.2 Ensure policies and procedures are supportive and effective in enabling staff to address areas for development and maintain high levels of performance. SA3.4.3 Develop a culture that encourages staff to use their full potential to create an enterprising and entrepreneurial environment within the College. SA3.4.4 To maintain a comprehensive Continuing Professional Development (CPD) plan to enhance staff's knowledge, skills and ability as relevant to the requirements of their posts in order to be high performing. SA3.4.5 To utilise Advanced Teaching Practitioners (ATPs) to deliver effective CPD to improve teaching, learning and assessment to outstanding. SA3.4.6. Develop an ethos of reflective practice and scholarship in line with the UK professional standards framework for teaching and supporting learning in HE.

SA3.5 Marketing and Student Recruitment The College aims to promote the brand identity, opportunities, ethos and range of facilities in order to achieve targets.

Measurable outcome(s): Student recruitment targets are achieved.

Key Objectives are to: SA3.5.1 Ensure there is an effective target driven marketing and student recruitment plan that is effectively implemented to achieve key targets. SA3.5.2 Maximise the effectiveness of the College website and use of social media in the marketing and student recruitment strategy. SA3.5.3 Develop and enhance the College profile and brand externally and internally. SA3.5.4 Implement specific schools liaison strategies to maximise recruitment from schools. SA3.5.5 Implement specific strategies for the promotion of HE opportunities.

SA3.6 Stakeholder Engagement The College aims to engage with all key stakeholders in shaping the curriculum offer and continually improving provision as well as taking an active role in contributing to wider community activities in line with our Public Value Statement.

Measurable outcome(s): Views and feedback from key stakeholders and engagement with key partners is used effectively to shape our provision and drive improvements.

Key Objectives are to: SA3.6.1 Ensure the learner voice contributes to the continual review and improvement of College through the Student Involvement Strategy. SA3.6.2 Enhance the HE experience for learners based on learner feedback. SA3.6.3 Communicate the College plans to all stakeholders by publishing the Strategic Plan and reporting achievement against plans in the Annual Report and AGM. SA3.6.4 Ensure employer views are used to continually enhance the curriculum offer and quality of provision through the Employer Engagement Strategy. SA3.6.5 Continue to ensure staff are kept informed of College priorities and views are sought on operational requirements through appropriate means and engage staff in reviews of the College mission and educational character. SA3.6.6 Ensure the College contributes to the effectiveness of the education and training offer in the area we serve and is seen as a community resource through engagement in relevant partnerships.

SA3.7 Safety and Safeguarding To Safeguard all College learners and particularly children, young people and adults with identified needs and ensure that all learners, staff and visitors are able to learn and work in an environment that is both safe and supportive.

Measurable outcome(s): • Staff and student feedback is positive in relation to safety and safeguarding across mainstream and subcontracted activity. • Incidents are minimised through robust internal procedures and controls

Key Objectives are to: SA3.7.1 Ensure that staff, students, visitors and contractors are safe and without risk to health through adherence to Health and Safety at work legislation and controls. SA3.7.2 Ensure that the College Governing Body’s functions relating to the conduct of the institution are exercised with a view to safeguarding and promoting the welfare of children receiving education or training at the College, as required under Section 175 of the Education Act 2002 relating to Child Protection. SA3.7.3 Implement our duty in response to the Government Prevent Guidance. SA3.7.4 Support all College staff in meeting Cumbria Local Safeguarding Children Board Procedures. SA3.7.5 Recognise the responsibility and vulnerability of education employees whilst ensuring that the welfare of children is paramount. SA3.7.6 Work within the Cumbria Children’s Trust Board Multi-Agency Thresholds Guidance.

Appendix 2

Supporting Economic Information

for

Carlisle College Economic Strategic Plan

Prepared by

Ginny Murphy Cumbria County Council

June 2015

Contents Page 1.0 Executive Summary 3 2.0 People 2.1 Demographics 5 2.2 Economic Activity 6 2.3 Unemployment & Worklessness 6 2.4 Income & Housing 7 3.0 Business & Employment 3.1 Business Structure 10 3.2 Business Growth 12 3.3 Employment Structure 12 4.0 Skills 4.1 Current demand 15 4.2 Current supply 17 5.0 Projections 5.1 Demographic 19 5.2 Pupil numbers 19 5.3 Employment 21 5.4 Occupations 22 5.5 Qualifications 23

1. Executive Summary The Carlisle City Council area is home to 108,000 residents, 5,145 registered business units, providing employment to 56,200 people and generating an estimated £1.9bn in economic value for the area. The area has withstood the economic downturn reasonably well with unemployment consistently below the national average and employment levels remaining relatively stable but challenges still exist, not least in the form of demographic trends and the implications of these for skills supply in the area. Carlisle’s population of 108,000 has grown by 3.4% over the past decade but the number of 0-15 year olds has been unchanged which has implications for the future labour market. Indeed, the latest ONS population projections suggest that Carlisle’s working age population could decline by almost 14% over the next 25 years, alongside a projected continuing decline in the number of 0-14 year olds. This will see a tightening labour market in which the supply of appropriate skills will be crucial for economic stability and growth. Carlisle has a higher economic activity rate among its population and a lower unemployment rate than average, although there are “hot spots” in parts of the area where benefit claimant rates are higher than average, demonstrating the inequalities that exist within the area. This is further highlighted by household income and house price data which suggests that over half the wards in Carlisle have household income below the national average and there are 3 wards where the income to house price ratio is higher than nationally. Carlisle’s 5,145 registered business units contribute an estimated £1.9bn in economic value to the economy. The majority of business units employ fewer than 10 people but the small number of large companies account for a significant number of jobs making their survival and growth crucial for the economy. International names such as McVities, Pirelli, Stobart Group and Northern Foods together with indigenous firms such as Carr’s Milling and Bendall’s Engineering and major public sector organisations such the City and County Councils and the Cumberland Infirmary have a significant influence on the economic health of the area and the demand for skills. The presence of these major organisations is reflected in the employment and occupation structure of the area with a high concentration of jobs in logistics, motor trades, public services and an occupation profile in which more people work in manufacturing-related jobs than nationally. Despite this however, Carlisle has relatively fewer people employed in professional and financial services and in senior occupations than nationally which may act as a labour market constraint in future. Future projections demonstrate the challenge facing the skills market in Carlisle with a projected fall in working age people and, despite projected growth in the total school population over the next decade, this will remain below the pre-recession high and isn’t expected to work through into Year 11-13 rolls for several years. Employment growth is projected to occur in public services (mainly education and health) and in transport, logistics and wholesale but there is projected to be a decline in manufacturing employment. Alongside this, the demand for people to work in the caring services will increase but the demand for process, plant and machine operatives will reduce. In turn, these trends would result in an increased demand for NQF Level 4 or above qualifications and, to a lesser extent, an increase in demand for NQF level 3 and 2 qualifications. Despite the challenges facing the economy, Carlisle’s businesses were relatively optimistic when surveyed as part of the Cumbria LEP Business Survey in the autumn of 2013. The proportion experiencing a rise in orders and output exceeded the proportion reporting a fall, although this wasn’t always being reflected in profit margins. Looking forward, three times as many were expecting orders and profits to increase in the coming year than were expecting them to fall. However, almost a third of businesses saw the availability of people able to do the job as a potential constraint on performance and 15% said that the availability of suitable training was a constraint.

Cumbria LEP will have an important role in assisting companies in achieving their growth ambitions over the next 10 years and overcoming the constraints identified. The LEP’s Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) has four priority themes – advanced manufacturing, nuclear & energy excellence, vibrant rural & visitor economy, strategic connectivity of the M6 corridor. Intervention will be focussed on the four economic drivers of business support, skills development, infrastructure improvements and environmental sustainability. Alongside the Strategic Economic Plan, Cumbria LEP has published an initial Skills Plan in collaboration with employers, business organisations and the network of colleges, universities and other education providers which will articulate the strategic skills priorities for Cumbria. A follow up Skills Plan is currently being developed through the Employment and Skills Commission (ESC) which gives collective local leadership in raising the demand for skills and setting the strategic priorities for public sector investment in skills/employability programmes that will drive the economic growth of the area.

2. People 2.1 Demographic structure The population of Carlisle in 2014 was 108,000, a rise of 3.4% (3,600 people) since 2004. This is higher than the county increase of 0.6% but less than half the national increase of 7.8%. The change in population has not been evenly distributed by age group – there was no change in the number of 0-15 year olds, a small rise in 16-64 year olds (0.4%) and a much larger rise in the number of those over 65 years (17.9%). The stability in the number of young people (0-15 years) is in marked contrast to Cumbria as a whole where the number fell by 9% but is below the UK where it rose by 3.8%. Similarly, the small rise in the working age population (0.4%) is better than Cumbria where the number fell by 3% but behind the UK where the working age population grew by 6.1%. Figure 1: Population change 2004-2014 Population change 2004-2014 (%) 25.0 22.2 19.4 20.0 17.9

15.0

10.0

7.8 6.1 5.0 3.8 3.4 % change 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.0

-3.0 -5.0

-10.0 -9.0

-15.0 Carlisle Cumbria UK

Total Aged 0-15 Aged 16-64 Aged 65+

Source: ONS Mid-Year Estimates 2.2 Economic activity Economic activity is defined as those who are in work, self-employment or actively seeking work. Rates of economic activity in Carlisle are above average with 80.3% of residents aged 16-64 being active at the time of the 2011 Census, compared to 79.2% for Cumbria and 76.9% for England and Wales. By age group, young people in Carlisle (and in Cumbria as a whole) are particularly more likely to be economically actively than the national average, 73.4% in Carlisle v 62.7% nationally.

Figure 2: Economic activity Economic activity, 2011 100.0 90.0 80.0

70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 % pop of in age group 20.0 10.0 0.0 Age 16-24 Age 25-49 Age 50+ Aged 16-64

Carlisle Cumbria E&W

Source: ONS Census 2011 2.3 Unemployment & worklessness The rollout of Universal Credit in Cumbria since January 2015 means that measuring JSA claimants alone no longer represents claimant unemployment fully. However the Office for National Statistics has not yet released a full range of data incorporating Universal Credit which limits the analysis that can be conducted compared to that which is available on JSA claimants. However, we do know that in May 2015, there were 700 people claiming Jobseekers’ Allowance in Carlisle and a further 250 out of work people claiming Universal Credit. The combined total of 950 represents 1.4% of the working age population. This rate is slightly below Cumbria’s (1.6%) and also below the national rate of 2.0%. Figure 3: Out of Work UC & JSA Claimant rates UC & JSA Claimant Rates, May 2015 2.5

2.0

2.0 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 % working agepop 0.5

0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 Out of work UC JSA Combined UC/JSA Rate

Carlisle Cumbria UK

Source: DWP via Nomis/Cumbria Intelligence Observatory At present, we can only analyse JSA data for wards and specific age groups (breakdowns for out of work UC claimants are not available). This shows that there were 2 wards (Castle and Upperby) in Carlisle where the JSA claimant rate was above the national average and 7 wards (Belle Vue, Botcherby, Castle, Denton Holme, Morton, St Aidan’s, Upperby) where the JSA rate was above the Cumbria average.

The number of young JSA claimants in Carlisle has fallen significantly in the past 12 months and the rate is now below that of all ages in the district (09.% v 1%) – the only district in Cumbria where this is the case. Youth JSA rates in Carlisle are lower than for Cumbria and for the UK. (NB: this does not include claimants of Universal Credit.) Figure 4: JSA Claimant rates JSA Claimant Rate by Age, May 2015 2.5

2.0 2.2

1.9 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.0

% working agepop 0.9 0.5

0.0 Aged 16-24 Aged 16-64

Carlisle Cumbria UK

Source: DWP via Nomis. NB: does not include claimants of Universal Credit A broader measure of ‘worklessness’ is available from data on a range of DWP benefits available to those of working age, including JSA, ESA, Incapacity, DLA, Carer’s Allowance, Widow’s Allowance (but not including Universal Credit or PIP). People claiming these benefits may not be actively in the labour market In November 2014 there were 8,390 people of working age in Carlisle claiming DWP benefits, 12.3% of the population (Cumbria 12.0%, GB 12.5%). Three quarters of these were claiming one of the key DWP out of work benefits (ESA/Incapacity Benefit/Jobs Seekers Allowance/lone parent/other income related). Figure 5: DWP working age benefit claimants DWP Working Age Client Group Benefits, Nov 2014 Carlisle Cumbria GB No % % % Total DWP claimants 8,390 12.3 12.0 12.5 By statistical group Job seekers 900 1.3 1.6 1.9 ESA and incapacity benefits 4,680 6.9 6.4 6.3 Lone parents 700 1.0 0.8 1.1 Carers 990 1.5 1.5 1.5 Others on income related benefits 180 0.3 0.3 0.3 Disabled 800 1.2 1.2 1.1 Bereaved 140 0.2 0.2 0.2

Key out-of-work benefits 6,460 9.5 9.0 9.7 Source: DWP via Nomis – NB does not include claimants of Universal Credit or PIP

2.4 Household Income & house prices Median household income in Carlisle in 2015 is estimated to be £25,238 which is marginally below the county median (£25,332) and well below the national median of £28,696. However, wealth is not distributed equally around the district - there are 13 wards in Carlisle (out of 22) where median household income is below the national average and 9 where it is above average with the range being from as low as 66% of the GB average in Morton and Upperby to as high as 126% of the GB average in Great Corby & Geltsdale. Figures 6: Median Household Income Median Household Income, 2015 £40,000 £35,000 £30,000 £25,000 £20,000 £15,000 £10,000 £5,000 £0

Source: CACI PayCheck Similarly, house prices vary significantly within the area. Overall the median house price in 2015 in Carlisle is estimated to be £122,183 compared to a county median of £139,877 and a national median of £175,143. Figure 7: Median House Price Median House Prices, 2015 £200,000 £180,000 £160,000 £175,143 £140,000 £139,877 £120,000 £122,183 £100,000 £80,000 £60,000 £40,000 £20,000 £0 Carlisle Cumbria Great Britain

Source: CACI StreetValue By combining household income and house price data, we can construct a house price to household income ratio to give an indicator of housing affordability in an area. The ratio in Carlisle overall is

better than average at 4.8 (ie prices are 4.8 times household income) but there are 3 wards where it is higher than the nation ratio of 6.1 and 9 where it is higher than the Cumbria ratio of 5.5. Figure 8: Housing Affordability Ratio Housing Affordability Ratio, 2015 8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Source: CACI PayCheck / StreetValue

3. Businesses & Employment 3.1 Business structure In 2014 there were 5,145 VAT/PAYE registered enterprise local units in Carlisle, a rise of 120 (2.4%) from 2013. The rate of increase is below that of the UK (3.6%) but above that for Cumbria (1.9%). This number of local units gives Carlisle a business density of 745 per 10,000 working age resident, a higher density than the national average of 669 but below that of Cumbria (836). Figure 9: Business Density Business Density, 2014 900

800 836

700 745 600 669 500 400 300

per 10,000working age pop 200 100 0 Carlisle Cumbria UK

Source: ONS UK Business: Activity, Size and Location The majority of local units in Carlisle (80.7%) employ fewer than 9 people (NB this does not include the very smallest businesses which have no employees and/or are trading below the VAT threshold). This proportion of micro businesses is slightly below the national average (82.9%) but the proportion employing 10-49 employees is slightly above the national average (15.6% v 13.8%). Figure 10: Enterprise local units by employment size Local Units by Employment Size, 2014

100.0 0.6 0.3 0.4 90.0 15.6 13.8 13.8 80.0 70.0

60.0 50.0 40.0 80.7 83.9 82.9 % of local units 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Carlisle Cumbria UK

Micro (0 to 9) Small (10 to 49) Medium (50 to 249) Large (250+)

Source: ONS UK Business: Activity, Size and Location

The largest sector in Carlisle in terms of the number of local units is ‘other services’ which includes information technology, property, finance, professional services, business admin, arts and recreation. However, this is significantly lower than the national average for this sector, largely because of a relatively smaller number of professional services and IT related businesses in Carlisle. The next biggest sector in Carlisle is wholesale & retail which is responsible for a fifth of all units. Figure 11: Local Units by Broad Sector Local Units by Broad Sector, 2014 (%)

Carlisle 16.8 14.1 19.9 5.0 6.4 8.8 29.0

Cumbria 19.1 14.7 16.1 3.1 8.5 8.8 29.8

UK 6.1 15.2 18.0 3.3 6.3 9.3 41.8

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % total units

Primary Production Wholesale & retail Transport Accommodation & food Public sector Other services

Source: ONS UK Business: Activity, Size and Location The ONS uses the number of businesses entering/leaving the register of active enterprises to produces a measure of business ‘births’ and ‘deaths’. In this context a birth is defined as continuing to appear in the register of active VAT/PAYE enterprises after first registration and a death is defined as disappearing from the register. Whilst this is an indicator of business activity, it should be noted that a business may be active below the VAT/PAYE thresholds before moving above for the first time and likewise may continue to trade below the thresholds rather than ceasing to exist. From this data it can be seen that until 2008 Carlisle had a positive balance of births over deaths. During the recession deaths exceeded births each year before returning to a positive balance in 2013. This is a similar trend to that seen in Cumbria as a whole but nationally, the economy moved back into positive balance of births over deaths in 2011. Figure 12: Registered enterprise ‘births’ and deaths’ Business 'births' v 'deaths' 600

500

400

300

200 No of of No businesses

100

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Births Deaths

Source: ONS Inter Departmental Business Register

3.2 Business growth The Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) 2013 Business Survey revealed that around a quarter of businesses in Carlisle had experienced an increase in domestic orders in the previous 12 months and a similar proportion had seen an increase in output – in both cases this exceeded the proportion reporting a fall. However, only a fifth of businesses had seen this result in higher profits while a third said profits had fallen. Businesses were more optimistic about the future however with over a third expecting orders and profits to increase with fewer than a tenth expecting them to fall. Taking various factors together, a quarter of businesses in Carlisle were classified as ‘Growers’ in the 2013 survey. Across Cumbria as a whole, ‘Growers’ were more likely to be in the accommodation & food and business services sectors but less likely to be in primary industries. Exporters were more likely than non-exporters to be ‘Growers’, as were innovators. However, there was some evidence that growth may be constrained by a lack of appropriate human resources. ‘Growers’ were more likely to report recruitment difficulties than average, although they were also more likely to be undertaking staff training, perhaps as a response to the need to up-skill the workforce as a result of their business growth. Businesses across Cumbria identified a number of potential constraints to performance. Not surprisingly, most of these related to the economy, regulations and taxation with up to two thirds highlighting various factors. However, skills and recruitment issues were also mentioned with 35% saying that the availability of people able to do the job was a constraint, as was the availability of people willing to do the job (32%). Lower down the list, 15% said the availability of suitable training in the area (Cumbria) was a constraint on performance. 3.3 Employment According to the ONS Business Register Employment Survey (BRES) there were 56,200 employees in employment in Carlisle in 2013 (NB this does not include self-employment or farm based agriculture). The largest broad employment sector in Carlisle is the public sector (public admin, education & health) which provides employment for 17,200 people, 31% of employees in the area, higher than both the county (24%) and national averages (27%). The next largest sector is wholesale & retail which employs 11,100 people (20%). Figure 13: Employees in employment by broad sector Employment by Sector, 2013

4% 11%

5% Production Construction 31% Wholesale/retail Logistics 19% Accomm & food Prof, finance & business Public sector Arts, recreation

8% 16% 6%

Source: ONS, Business Register Employment Survey, 2012 (workplace based)

Using location quotients we can identify sectors where the concentration of employment locally varies from Cumbria and GB. The figure below compares the proportion of employment by sector in Carlisle with Cumbria and GB (a value to the right of the vertical axis shows a relatively higher concentration). From this we can see that Carlisle has relatively more employees in logistics, professional services, public sector and wholesale & retail than in Cumbria as a whole but relatively fewer in accommodation & food, production, construction and arts & recreation. When compared with the national average (blue bars), it can be seen that Carlisle has relatively more employees in logistics, wholesale & retail, production, construction and the public sector but relatively fewer in professional services, arts & recreation and accommodation & food. Figure 14: Employees in employment by sector location quotients v GB & Cumbria Sector Employment Location Quotients, 2013

Arts, recreation

Public sector

Prof, finance & business

Accomm & food

Logistics

Wholesale/retail

Construction

Production

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00

LQ v Cumbria LQ v GB

Source: ONS, Business Register Employment Survey, 2013 (workplace based) The 2011 Census gives a breakdown of the occupations carried out by people within workplaces in the Carlisle area and shows that the largest occupation group was skilled trades which employed 7,509 residents (13.3%), closely followed by professional occupations with 7,467 (13.2%) and elementary occupations with 7,162 (12.6%).

Figure 15: Employment by occupation Employment by occupation, 2011

Managers, directors & senior 12.6 9.0 officials Professional

13.2 Associate professional & technical 12.0 Admin & secretarial

Skilled trades 9.3 9.4 Caring, leisure & other services

Sales & customer services 11.4 9.7 Process, plant & machine ops 13.3 Elementary occupations

Source: ONS Census 2011 (workplace based) Using the same location quotient technique as earlier, we can see that Carlisle has particular concentrations in process, plant & machine operatives and in admin & secretarial occupations but fewer skilled trades and managers, directors & senior officials than average for Cumbria (red bars). Relative to England & Wales, Carlisle has more people working in process, plant & machine operatives, skilled trades, elementary occupations and sales occupations (blue bars) but fewer in associate professional & technical, professional and managers, directions & senior officials. Figure 16: Employment by occupation location quotients v England & Wales & Cumbria Occupation Employment Location Quotients

Elementary occupations Process, plant & machine ops Sales & customer services Caring, leisure & other services Skilled trades Admin & secretarial Associate professional & technical Professional Managers, directors & senior officials

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

LQ v Cumbria LQ v E&W

Source: ONS Census 2011 (workplace based)

4. Skills 4.1 Current Demand Labour Insight is a service which monitors online job postings to enable analysis of current demand for workers with particular skills. Not surprisingly, the most commonly mentioned skills by businesses in their job postings are “soft” baseline skills such as communication, which is mentioned in over a third of job postings, problem solving, team work, building relationships etc or are very specific to the business activity. Figure 17: Top baseline skills in demand in Carlisle Top 20 Baseline Skills in Demand in Past Year

Communication Skills Customer service Planning Computer Skills Writing Problem Solving Staff Coordination Organisational Skills Teaching English Team Work Microsoft Excel Budgeting Creativity Detail-Orientated Project Management Building Effective Relationships Quality Assurance Leadership Management

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 % job postings in past year

Source: Labour Insight, Burning Glass Technologies At a more detailed level, many of the skills relate to health related occupations (which dominate the job postings) with business related, retail and construction/engineering skills also featuring highly.

Figure 18: Top specialised skills in demand in Carlisle Top 20 Specialised Skills in Demand in Past Year

Sales Mathematics Repair Promotional Support Accountancy Business Management Midwifery Administrative Support Daycare Business Development Caregiving Mental Health Sales Management Store Management Care Plans Operations Management Construction Knowledge Civil Engineering IT Support Record Keeping

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 % job postings

Source: Labour Insight, Burning Glass Technologies The Cumbria LEP 2013 Business Survey asked businesses whether they could identify any skill gaps among their current workforce and 14% of businesses across Cumbria did so. The propensity to report gaps increases with business size, with 12% of those employing fewer than 10 people reporting gaps, 15% of those employing 10-24 people doing so, 26% of those employing 25-99 and 32% of those employing 100%. The proportion identifying gaps was also significantly higher than average within the business services sector (21%). Businesses were most likely to be experiencing skill gaps in occupations such as skilled trades and amongst managers, directors and senior officials. In terms of the type of skills lacking among the current workforce, these broadly align with those appearing in the job postings data. As demonstrated by the following figure, businesses in Carlisle were most likely to cite IT and admin skills as being lacking as well as technical or practical skills specialist to the business/sector, together with broader skills such as communications, problem solving and customer handling.

Figure 19: Skills reported as lacking by businesses Skills lacking in Carlisle, 2013

Advanced IT or software Basic computer literacy Office/admin Technical, practical / specialist to sector Written communication Oral communication Prblem solving Customer handling Management Foreign languages Team working Numeracy Other Literacy

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 % businesses with skill gaps

Source: Cumbria LEP 2013 Business Survey 4.2 Current Supply Qualification levels among the resident population of working age in Carlisle are slightly below average with slightly more people who have no qualifications or whose highest level is level 1 or 2 and a lower than average proportion with level 4 or above qualifications. Figure 20: Highest level of qualification Qualification levels, 2011 35.0

30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 % working agepop 5.0 0.0

Carlisle Cumbria E&W

Source: Census 2011 In 2014, the proportion of young people achieving 5+ GCSEs at A*-C including English and Maths in Cumbria was 57.0%, slightly above the national average. Achievement at the seven schools from which Carlisle College attracts many of its students varied widely. Achievement in Nelson Thomlinson School (67%), William Howard School (62%) and Caldew School (58.0%) was above the national average with Trinity School (51%) just below, whilst Richard Rose Morton Academy (37%), Richard Rose Central Academy (34%) and Newman Catholic School (33%)were well below the national average.

Figure 21: KS4 school achievements Secondary School KS4 Achievements, 2014 % of pupils making % achieving 5+ A*-C GCSEs (or equiv) expected progress including English & Maths English Maths 2011 2012 2013 2014 England - all schools/colleges NA NA 59.0% 59.4% 59.2% 53.4% England - state funded schools/colleges 71.6% 65.5% 58.2% 58.8% 60.6% 56.6% Cumbria LEA 67.7% 64.6% 57.0% 56.1% 56.6% 57.0% Caldew School 67% 62% 56% 58% 58% 58% Nelson Thomlinson School 73% 82% 69% 65% 61% 67% Newman Catholic School 64% 37% 43% 46% 63% 33% Richard Rose Central Academy 60% 43% 31% 37% 35% 34% Richard Rose Morton Academy 55% 37% 35% 31% 33% 37% Trinity School 64% 52% 66% 60% 50% 51% William Howard School 75% 66% 65% 68% 72% 62% Source: DfE School Performance Tables At Key Stage 5 the highest average score per A Level student in 2014 was achieved at Nelson Thomlinson School (959.5), followed by William Howard School (861.8), both well in excess of the county and national average. Figure 22: KS5 School achievements Secondary School KS5 Achievements, 2014

Average point score per % of A level students achieving

grades A level at least at least at AAB or A entry A level 3 A 2 A least 1 higher in level expressed student levels levels A level at least 2 entry as a (FTE at A*-E at A*-E at A*-E facilitating grade subjects England - all 215.5 C+ 787.1 79.5% 92.4% 99.6% 15.0% England - state funded 211.2 C 772.8 77.9% 91.8% 99.6% 11.9% Cumbria LEA 211.6 C 799.3 80.4% 93.0% 99.8% 12.5% Caldew School 189.6 D+ 767.6 73% 98% 100% 14% Nelson Thomlinson School 213.2 C 959.5 98% 100% 100% 23% Newman Catholic School SUPP SUPP SUPP SUPP SUPP SUPP SUPP Richard Rose Central Academy 187.1 D+ 596.4 29% 65% 98% 2% Richard Rose Morton Academy NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Trinity School 214.1 C 773.5 90% 99% 100% 6% William Howard School 214.6 C 861.8 73% 87% 99% 19% Source: DfE School Performance Tables

5. Future Projections Projections of any type are an inexact science since there are so many factors which can influence their realisation ad the further into the future they project, they become increasingly uncertain. Nevertheless they can provide a useful context for planning. 5.1 Demographic Projections The Office for National Statistics published sub-national population projections (SNPPs) every 2 years and the latest of these were published in May 2014. They utilise the mid-2012 population and project forward how that might develop over the subsequent 25 years taking into account projected births and deaths and adjusting for projected in and out migration (domestic and international). The latest SNPPs project that Carlisle will experience minimal total population growth of just 0.2% (200 persons) between 2012 and 2037. This is in contrast to projected national growth of 16.2%. The projected changes are not spread evenly across age bands in Carlisle. The number of 0-14 year olds is projected to decrease by 1,800 (-10.4%) which is the 4th greatest decline of any local authority in England and contrary to projected growth nationally (+9.4%). Similarly, the projection for 15-64 year olds also runs counter to the national projection. In Carlisle the number of 15-64 year olds is projected to decrease by 9,700 persons (-13.8%) by 2037, in line with the county trend but contrary to a projected national rise of 5.4%. In contrast, the number of 65+ year olds in Carlisle is projected to grow by 12,000 (+58%) which is slightly higher than the county figure (+50.9%) but lower than the national figure (+65.1%). Figure 23: Projected population change Projected population change 2012-2037 70 60 65.1 50 58.0 50.9 40 30 20 9.4

% change 5.4 10 0.2 16.2 0 -1.2 -10 -10.4 -13.8 -11.0 -20 -16.6 -30 Carlisle Cumbria England

0-14 years 15-64 years 65+ years All ages

Source: ONS 2012-based SNPPs 5.2 Pupil Projections School projection figures are constructed using GP registration data on actual births and project these forward to estimate school populations. They have the advantage over the ONS population projections that they use data at a low geographic level and therefore take account of variations at community level but do not take account of migration trends. These school projections show that the total school roll in the seven schools from which Carlisle College attracts many of its students has consistently fallen since 2006 but is projected to start to increase from 2016 onwards with the total roll projected to be 1,115 higher (15.1%) in 2025 than in 2015.

Figure 24: Actual and projected total roll in Carlisle College (combined feeder schools) Number on roll (actual & projected) 9,000

8,500

8,000

No on roll on No 7,500

7,000

6,500

Source: Cumbria County Council, Schools & Learning Team However, the rise in total roll numbers isn’t distributed evenly across the seven schools or by year groups. Both Richard Rose Academies are projected to see a significant rise in their total roll (69.1% in RR Central Academy 70.5% in RR Morton Academy) and between them they account for over 80% of the projected rise in pupils overall by 2025. William Howard is projected to have a smaller rise (13.0%) with Newman and Trinity experiencing little overall change. Nelson Thomlinson is projected to experience a falling roll from 2022. Figure 25: Projected roll by school Projected Roll by School 1,800

1,600

1,400 Caldew 1,200 Nelson Thomlinson 1,000 Newman 800 No on roll Richard Rose Central

600 Richard Rose Morton

400 Trinity William Howard 200

Source: Cumbria County Council, Schools & Learning Team

When broken down by school year, it can be seen that the total number on the roll in Years 11, 12 and 13 is relatively stable to 2018, then demonstrates some variation to 2021 before stabilising again. Figure 26: Projected roll in Years 11, 12 & 13 (combined feeder schools) Projected Pupil Numbers in Years 11-13 1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

Projects no in yr 600

400

200

0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Year 11 Year 12 Year 13

Source: Cumbria County Council, Schools & Learning Team 5.3 Employment Projections Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) has partnered with Experian UK to produce a local economic model which projects employment levels by sector over the next 20 years. The model also projects economic output, occupations and qualifications associated with the projected employment levels by using historical trends, current economic data and national economic projections, supplemented by local information. The baseline projections for Cumbria take into account known developments locally but do not yet include proposals within the Cumbria LEP Strategic Economic Plan or developments such as potential nuclear new build as these are not yet confirmed. The Experian model estimates that in 2014 there were 47,333 full time equivalent employees in Carlisle and that by 2024 this will have increased by 3,215 (6.8%) to 50,648. The projected increase is higher than for Cumbria (2.6%) but below that for the UK (8.0%). Much of the projected increase is anticipated to be in public services (+1,260, 11.7%), mainly education and health. Increases are also projected in the transport, logistics and wholesale sectors. However there is a projected decline in manufacturing FTEs of 862 (-15%).

Figure 27: Projected change in FTEs in Carlisle (number) Projected change in FTEs 2014-2024 (number)

Accomodation, Food Services & Recreation

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

Construction

Extraction & Mining

Finance & Insurance

Information & communication

Manufacturing

Professional & Other Private Services

Public Services

Transport & storage

Utilities

Wholesale & Retail

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 Change in number of FTEs

Source: Cumbria LEP/Experian UK local economy model 5.4 Occupation Projections The Experian model includes assumptions about the occupations associated with industrial sectors and whilst these may not reflect the precise structure of the particular business units operating in a local area, they nevertheless provide a broad indicator of the potential demand for various levels of occupation should the projected sector developments occur. The model shows that the biggest occupation sector currently is elementary admin & services with 7,038 employees, followed by sales with 4,881 and corporate managers & directors with 4,133. The projected change in employment by sector over the next decade will result in increased demand for caring & personal service occupations (+559), corporate managers & directors (+497) and transport & mobile machine operatives (+468). However, the projected decline in manufacturing employment will see a reduced demand for process, plant & machine operatives (-380).

Figure 28: Projected demand for occupations 2014 & 2024 Projected occupation demand 2014 & 2024

Elementary Admin & Services Sales Administrative Corporate Managers & Directors Business & Public Svcs Assoc Prof Caring, Personal Services Transport & Mobile Machine Ops Health Prof Business, Media & Public Svcs Prof Other Managers & Proprietors Skilled Metal, Electrical & Electronic Science, Engineering & Tech Prof Process, Plant & Machine Ops Skilled Construction & Building Teaching & Educational Prof Textiles, Printing & Other Skilled Elementary Trades & Related Secretarial & Related Leisure, Travel & Related Services Culture, Media & Sports Customer Services Skilled Agricultural & Related Science, Eng & Tech Assoc Prof Health & Social Care Assoc Prof Protective Services

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Number of people

2014 2024

Source: Cumbria LEP/Experian UK local economy model 5.5 Qualification Projections The model also utilises assumptions about occupations and qualifications to produce projections for demand for qualifications at broad levels. This estimates that just over a third (36.8%) of jobs in Carlisle in 2014 requires a qualification at NQF level 4 or above and that the projected rise in employment will result in an increased demand of 2,031 qualifications at this level. There is also projected to be additional demand for approximately more 550 NQF level 3 and 470 level 2 qualifications and 300 additional qualifications below NQF level 2.

Figure 29: Projected demand for qualifications 2014 & 2024 Change in demand for qualifications 2014-2024

Trade Apprenticeships 2,951 72

Other qualifications 3,424 152

NQF Level 4 and above 21,696 2,031

NQF Level 3 10,988 546

NQF Level 2 9,714 468

No qualifications 3,166 109

Below NQF Level 2 7,017 307

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Number of people

Current Additional

Source: Cumbria LEP/Experian UK local economy model

Annex 1

Carlisle College

HE Strategy

2015/16 - 2017/18

Approved by Corporation Board July 2015

Carlisle College Higher Education Strategy 2015/16 – 2017/18

Introduction

This Higher Education strategy has been developed to align with the overall strategic plan for the College. It articulates the mission and values of the College in respect of Higher Education and is designed to reflect the regional and local workforce development needs and future requirements.

Through the development of this strategy the College demonstrates its commitment to continuing to develop and deliver quality Higher Education opportunities to the community it serves. The importance of providing the right programmes of study to meet current and future skills needs to stimulate the local economy is essential for its survival.

This strategy has been informed by discussion with local employers, key growth areas as identified by the Local Enterprise Partnership, labour market needs analysis, and collaborative arrangements with local HEIs.

The strategy is to be implemented alongside the teaching, learning and assessment strategy to safeguard the academic quality and standards of the awards the College offers.

About Carlisle College

Carlisle College is a small General Further Education (GFE) College serving predominantly the post 16 education and training needs of North Cumbria. The College campus, located in Carlisle, is the only GFE college within a 35 mile radius and is in a rural area. The University of Cumbria is located in the city and has 3 campuses in Carlisle, West Cumbria and at Ambleside in the Lake District. There is also a campus in Lancaster and shared use at Furness College.

With strong links already existing between the College and other local providers and employers, the College is well positioned to work in collaboration to continue to support the development of HE provision to meet local and regional needs and compliment the work of the University of Cumbria.

Economic Profile

The Carlisle City Council area is home to 108,000 residents, 5,145 registered business units, providing employment to 56,200 people and generating an estimated £1.9bn in economic value for the area. The area has withstood the economic downturn reasonably well with unemployment consistently below the national average and employment levels remaining relatively stable but challenges still exist, not least in the form of demographic trends and the implications of these for skills supply in the area. Carlisle’s population of 108,000 has grown by 3.4% over the past decade but the number of 0-15 year olds has been unchanged which has implications for the future labour market. Indeed, the latest ONS population projections suggest that Carlisle’s working age population could decline by almost 14% over the next 25 years, alongside a projected continuing decline in the number of 0-14 year olds. This will see a tightening labour market in which the supply of appropriate skills will be crucial for economic stability and growth. Carlisle has a higher economic activity rate among its population and a lower unemployment rate than average, although there are “hot spots” in parts of the area where benefit claimant rates are higher than average, demonstrating the inequalities that exist within the area. This is further highlighted by household income and house price data which suggests that over half the wards in Carlisle have household income below the national average and there are 3 wards where the income to house price ratio is higher than nationally. Carlisle’s 5,145 registered business units contribute an estimated £1.9bn in economic value to the economy. The majority of business units employ fewer than 10 people but the small number of large companies account for a significant number of jobs making their survival and growth crucial for the economy. International names such as McVities, Pirelli, Stobart Group and Northern Foods together with indigenous firms such as Carr’s Milling and Bendall’s Engineering and major public sector organisations such the City and County Councils and the Cumberland Infirmary have a significant influence on the economic health of the area and the demand for skills. The presence of these major organisations is reflected in the employment and occupation structure of the area with a high concentration of jobs in logistics, motor trades, public services and an occupation profile in which more people work in manufacturing-related jobs than nationally. Despite this however, Carlisle has relatively fewer people employed in professional and financial services and in senior occupations than nationally which may act as a labour market constraint in future. Future projections demonstrate the challenge facing the skills market in Carlisle with a projected fall in working age people and, despite projected growth in the total school population over the next decade, this will remain below the pre-recession high and isn’t expected to work through into Year 11-13 rolls for several years. Employment growth is projected to occur in public services (mainly education and health) and in transport, logistics and wholesale but there is projected to be a decline in manufacturing employment. Alongside this, the demand for people to work in the caring services will increase but the demand for process, plant and machine operatives will reduce. In turn, these trends would result in an increased demand for NQF Level 4 or above qualifications and, to a lesser extent, an increase in demand for NQF level 3 and 2 qualifications. Despite the challenges facing the economy, Carlisle’s businesses were relatively optimistic when surveyed as part of the Cumbria LEP Business Survey in the autumn of 2013. The proportion experiencing a rise in orders and output exceeded the proportion reporting a fall, although this wasn’t always being reflected in profit margins. Looking forward, three times as many were expecting orders and profits to increase in the coming year than were expecting them to fall. However, almost a third of businesses saw the availability of people able to do the job as a potential constraint on performance and 15% said that the availability of suitable training was a constraint.

Overview of Higher Education at Carlisle College

Why do we provide Higher Education?

The College has been an established provider of HE for over 20 years in partnership with UCLan. This arrangement was established between Cumbrian Colleges and UCLan to fulfil a need due to the lack of a University for Cumbria. However, this was addressed in 2006 when the University of Cumbria was established within Cumbria to address this need and encourage the development of higher levels skills in order to attract businesses into the county and stem the loss of young people from the area.

As HE has become a more significant part of meeting local needs and adding value to both learning opportunities and higher level skills of the people of north Cumbria, the College has recognised the need for the continuing collaboration with partner Higher Education Institutions and Further Education Colleges, as well as continuing to build on and engage a higher proportion of local employers.

Employer Engagement and Work Based Learning

The College already has a very high reputation with local employers. It seeks to build on this strong base and seeks opportunities to forge ever stronger and new industry links. The delivery of Foundation Degrees and HNC/Ds has been in response to on-going dialogue with local employers. Awards are designed, developed and delivered with input from industry and the College seeks to increase this across all current and future programmes.

Widening Participation

The mission of the College clearly articulates its commitment to ensuring it remains inclusive. The College provides opportunities for all the community it serves and will seek to ensure that progression opportunities exist for all its students particularly in accessing higher education. The College is particularly keen to increase progression opportunities for apprenticeship programmes and those who may not have experienced success in compulsory education. The College currently offers progression from level 3 FE programmes to full time Higher Education in Computing.

Existing Provision

HE programmes are delivered across 3 of the 7 curriculum areas with Teacher Training being part of the department of Quality Improvement & Teaching and Learning.

HE Programmes – 2014/15

The College currently offers a range of Higher National Programmes validated by Pearson as well as Foundation Degrees and Initial Teacher Training Programmes validated by The University of Central Lancaster (UCLan). The College is also developing a new partnership with the University of Cumbria particularly in relation to STEM subjects.

Enrolment trends

Courses currently on offer and recent levels of participation are listed below:

Programme 12/13 13/14 14/15 Full time PGCE/Cert Ed 13 11 11 Part-time PGCE/Cert Ed Yr2 14 12 10 Intermediate Certificate in Education and Training N/A N/A 1 Introductory Certificate in Education and Training/CTTLs 2 4 3 Preparatory Certificate in Education and Training/PTTLs 21 10 6 FD Health and Social Care Yr1 N/A 6 N/A FD Health and Social Care Yr2 4 N/A 4 FD Business 18 8 N/A HND Business 12 7 N/A HNC Business N/A N/A 10 FD Computing 34 35 26 HNC Engineering 34 29 20 HND Engineering 6 12 7

The foundation degrees in business and engineering have both been replaced by HNC/D in response to needs identified by local employers. The final cohort on the foundation degree in Health and Social Care will complete in 2015 and the College is looking at more appropriate higher level programmes within this sector area. The College will continue to review its offer to ensure it is responsive to local and regional employer needs.

The College is planning to develop an Advanced Manufacturing Centre within the Engineering Department and is exploring the potential for an expanded HE offer and progression routes within this area of provision.

Our Vision and Values

The College’s vision is:

“To be recognised as an outstanding and inclusive College providing life changing skills and experiences”

Values

The educational character of the College is more than simply the range of provision we offer and the type of learner we provide for. It is also about how we do things. The ethos of the College is embodied in the College Values which underpin staff and management behaviours and guides the way we operate. The College Values are displayed below:

The College’s Strategic Aims

The College has 3 core strategic aims which cover the broad themes of 1 The Curriculum (what we offer) 2 Quality and Outcomes (how well we do) 3 Leadership and Management (how we make it happen)

SA1 – The Curriculum Strategy To provide learning opportunities for the whole community that contribute to economic prosperity through meeting the needs of learners and employers

SA2 – The Quality Strategy To provide inspirational, enjoyable and successful learning experiences that support learners to achieve their ambitions

SA3 - Leadership and To provide an environment and culture that is Management Strategy based on continuous improvement and the core

value that students are at the heart of what we do.

Higher Education Vision

The HE strategic objectives which are specifically identified at strategic level through the College’s Strategic Plan are to:

Strategic Aim 1 – To provide learning opportunities for the whole community that contribute to economic prosperity through meeting the needs of learners and employers

The College will:

Offer a HE curriculum that meets the needs of our learners and employers and contributes to the higher level skills agenda for the government and local LEP priorities

Key objectives: • To continue to monitor and review the impact of the fees policy on HE recruitment. • To increase the participation rates of under-represented groups within HE, particularly in relation to vocational routes and progression from apprenticeships. • Continue to review potential opportunities with HE providers to ensure skills needs can be met.

Where we are now

The introduction of fees continues to have an impact despite the College setting their fee policy in a competitive and realistic environment. The College will monitor this over the coming years to determine the viability of some programmes. The College currently (2014/15) has 98 students across 5 subject areas. The subjects are Foundation Degree in Computing both full and part time plus 2 students working towards a higher level apprenticeship in Computing; Foundation Degree in Health and Social Care full time. The Engineering Foundation Degree has been replaced with HNC/D part time to meet the needs of employers. The Business Foundation Degree has also been replaced with HNC/D to meet the needs of the sector. Teacher training offers both the PGCE and part time Cert Ed and is largest programme for HE enrolments. All the awards have an agreement with partner HEIs for progression to higher awards.

Where will we be in 2018?

The major developments for ensuring the offer meets the strategic aim have already begun with the College moving to HNC/D offer in response to needs identified by the industries/sectors we support and with the development of the Higher Apprenticeship route in Computing. The curriculum offer will continue to be reviewed with employers and partner HEIs to ensure there is adequate provision across the locality to meet the needs of industry particularly for up skilling the current workforce and providing high level skills for new or growth industries and new technologies.

Key areas to be explored with HE partners for future developments, in line with the LEP and/or Carlisle City Council economic priorities, include: • Advanced manufacturing • Renewable energy

• Digital technologies • Business, accountancy and professional services

Strategic Aim 2 – To provide inspirational, enjoyable and successful learning experiences that support learners to achieve their ambitions

Key objectives: • Continue to reduce attrition rates and improve programme success rates. • Develop e-learning and interactive technology to allow flexible and distributed learning. • Ensure the College fully complies with the QAA Code of Practice. • Continue to enhance the student experience through the implementation of the Higher Education Quality Enhancement Cycle. Where we are now

The College has in place a robust action plan to ensure it meets all expectations relating to the QAA Code in preparation for the Higher Education Review visit in January. Attrition and success rates are being closely monitored against key performance indicators and early warning signs for concern are raised and addressed through departmental health checks. The FE quality assurances processes have been further developed and the College now has a specific HE Quality Enhancement Cycle and Handbook which is being implemented across all of its HE provision.

Where will we be in 2018?

By 2018 we expect the success rates of students completing a programme of HE to have improved and be comparative to that of FE success. The observation of teaching and learning will continue to be monitored separately and the identification of good and outstanding practice is identified and transferred across the staff who deliver HE programmes. The use of technology will continue to be explored and e-learning be embedded into all programmes. Resources to support technology and improve and enhance the student experience will meet their expectations.

Strategic Aim 3 - To provide an environment and culture that is based on continuous improvement and the core value that students are at the heart of what we do.

Key objectives: • Actively communicate and promote HE and FE loans arrangements to all relevant individuals. • Embed learner feedback as a key tool in the continuous improvement of the physical and cultural environment for Higher education students. • Develop an ethos of reflective practice and scholarship in line with the UK Professional Standards Framework for Teaching and Supporting Learning in HE.

Where we are now:

Student services provide current and up to date information on HE loans and financial advice. Student feedback is a key aspect of the Higher Education Quality Enhancement Cycle and a new position of Higher Education Student Officer has been created to support

this. The College has developed a scholarship guide for staff based on four strands of scholarship and the UK Professional Standards and is embedding this along with scholarly activity logs for all staff teaching HE. Where will we be in 2018?

The College will have maintained effective working partnerships with HE partners that further enhance the offer available in Carlisle and Cumbria to meet the higher level skill needs as identified in the LEP priority plan and Carlisle city’s economic priorities. Higher Education targets will be consistently met and the impact of fees will have little or no impact on the recruitment of students in HE programmes. The website and all publications to promote the provision will have been effective in achieving maintained or growth in numbers participating in HE. Students will continue to play a key role in helping the College identity these needs of HE and all programmes will have high levels of student satisfaction with their HE experience at Carlisle College.

The Future

The College will continue, in the short to medium term, to offer HE provision that meets the needs of learners and employers where we have the capacity and capability. The longer term strategy will be increasingly influenced and shaped in line with partner institutions and in line with LEP priorities within the Skills Plan for Cumbria. The resources, systems and processes within the College related to HE Provision will be differentiated appropriately to reflect the priorities and needs of HE learners and the staff who deliver HE programmes.

The Management and Monitoring of HE in Carlisle College

• The Corporation Board and Senior Management lead the strategic direction for the College • The Vice Principal Curriculum and Quality has overall senior responsibility for provision within the College curriculum and reports on a regular basis on the performance of programmes to Corporation Board. • Curriculum Team Managers are responsible for ensuring the academic standards are maintained for programmes within their curriculum areas and have devolved responsibility for the quality of the delivery of the programmes in accordance with the college’s policies and procedures. • Course teams/tutors responsible for the management of students’ progress and performance. • The Quality Manager has responsibly for implementation of the quality assurance and enhancement processes and procedures. • The Director of Curriculum will monitor the implementation of the strategy and produce a termly monitoring report for review by the Principalship team. • An annual report will be produced for scrutiny by the Board in February. • Updates on progress will be provided to the Higher Education Strategy group on a bi- annual basis. • The Higher Education Strategy will be reviewed annually in accordance with internal and external developments and overall alignment to the College’s Strategic Plan. This annual review will be informed by progress against the QAA Higher Education Review Action Plan.

Monitoring of programme performance is carried out through a range of activities detailed in the HE quality assurance and enhancement cycle including:

• Regular reporting on programme retention rates for each HE programme to Corporation Board. • Annual HE report to Governors covering all aspects of quality monitoring • Student surveys for HE students are taken twice a year and results published by all and individual programmes. In addition to this the College promotes the National Student Survey. • Programme level reviews completed 3 times a year and feed in to UCLan programme level and institutional reports. • Annual HE Quality Enhancement Report and action plan produced. • Health check meetings held each term with managers have HE as separate item which monitors recruitment, quality and student feedback. • Lesson observation weeks specifically for HE programmes and reported back to Corporation Board.

Risk

The College has a risk management framework which is regularly reviewed by the risk management team chaired by the Assistant Principal Finance & Resources. The following are main areas of risk identified to the College:

• Reputation & Marketing • Estates – IT • Estates – Teaching and Learning • Teaching and Learning – Finance • Health & Safety • Human Resources • Teaching and Learning

The College is confident that the control measures in place are fit for purpose and support the College in meeting its objectives.

Supporting Documents

The HE Strategy is supported by the following key documents: • Carlisle College Scholarship Guide • Carlisle College Academic Regulations Handbook • Carlisle College Quality Enhancement Handbook