Democratic Deconsolidation: an Analysis of South Africa’S Democratic Regress During the Zuma Years

Democratic Deconsolidation: An Analysis of South Africa’s Democratic Regress during the Zuma Years By Jordan Shain Fredericks Thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts (Political Science) in the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at Stellenbosch University. The financial assistance of the National Research Foundation (NRF) towards this research is hereby acknowledged. Opinions expressed and conclusions arrived at, are those of the author and are not necessarily to be attributed to the NRF. Supervisor: Dr Nicola de Jager December 2019 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Declaration By submitting this thesis electronically, I declare that the entirety of the work contained therein is my own, original work, that I am the sole author thereof (save to the extent explicitly otherwise stated), that reproduction and publication thereof by Stellenbosch University will not infringe any third party rights and that I have not previously in its entirety or in part submitted it for obtaining any qualification. Date: December 2019 Copyright © 2019 Stellenbosch University All rights reserved i Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Abstract Studies of democracy have recently shown that not only are democracies globally experiencing signs of democratic deconsolidation, but evincing a regression towards authoritarianism. This is evident in a growing lack of support amongst citizens for democratic regimes, who are often opened to non-democratic alternatives. Deconsolidation has been particularly evident in contexts where poor governance has failed to deliver the economic and political goods expected by citizens in a democratic regime. South Africa, which is the case under analysis, has been manifesting such signs of deconsolidation. This is because civic society has, not only become disillusioned with the quality of governance amid growing scandals of corruption and nepotism under the Zuma administration, but increasingly open to radical populist ideas. While there are studies drawing on theories of democratic consolidation to analyse South Africa’s democracy, there has been limited inquiry based on the analytical approach of democratic deconsolidation. Furthermore, few have applied a holistic approach in analysing the state of South Africa’s current democracy. It is this deficit that the study addresses through an analysis of South Africa’s democracy during the years of the Zuma administration. The research questions motivating this study are whether South Africa’s democracy deconsolidated structurally, attitudinally and behaviourally during the Zuma administration, and whether poor governance – understood as being partisan to personal or special relationships - facilitated the process of deconsolidation. In addressing the research problem, this study uses an analytical framework of democratic deconsolidation adopted from the work of Schedler (2001) and others such as Foa and Mounk (2017) to construct the conditions which are indicative of the deconsolidation process: poor governance (as an instigator), weak structures, negative attitudes and disruptive behaviour. This study finds that South Africa’s democracy has deconsolidated structurally, attitudinally and behaviourally – and that poor governance has been particularly instrumental in facilitating this process. The study shows that the overarching national project of the ANC – the National Democratic Revolution and its concomitant strategy of cadre deployment – served as a catalyst for the state capture project and the web of patronage under the Zuma administration. In deploying loyalists into key positions and being partisan to personal considerations, the Zuma administration undermined the impartial aspirations of the Constitution. The result is that, structurally, the web of patronage under Zuma has degenerated into a culture of disdain for constitutional governance, as typified in cases such as the Nkandla dispute. Moreover, it is ii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za shown that the economic cost of poor governance has been dire, as indicated by the rising rates of unemployment, poverty and inequality amid ailing parastatals such as Eskom. This study shows that, attitudinally, poor government performance has eroded South Africans’ faith in democracy and made former supporters of democracy receptive to non-democratic (populist) parties, such as the EFF. The openness to radicalism has also been accompanied by an upsurge in violent protest action as a response to the government’s poor performance. While these conditions clearly point to South Africa’s democracy deconsolidating, deconsolidation itself it not an end state but a process that can be reversed. iii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Opsomming Studies van demokrasie het onlangs gewys dat nie net ondervind demokrasieë wȇreldwyd tekens van demokratiese agteruitgang [dekonsolidasie] nie, maar neig dit ook om regressie te wys na outoriatisme. Dit is sigbaar in die groeiende verlies aan ondersteuning onder burgers van demokratiese regerings, wat meer oop is vir nie-demokratiese alternatiewe. Agteruitgang is veral sigbaar in die konteks waar swak regering misluk om te voorsien in die ekonomiese vooruitgang wat die burgers verwag van `n demokratiese regering. Suid-Afrika, die gevallestudie onder analise, manifesteer sulke tekens van dekonsolidasie. Dit is omdat die burgerlike samelewing nie net ontnugter is deur die kwaliteit van demokratiese regering te midde van groeiende skandale van korrupsie en nepotisme onder die Zuma administrasie nie, maar ook toenemend oop is vir radikale populistiese idees. Terwyl daar studies is wat gevolgtrekkings maak oor teorieë van demokratiese konsolidasie om Suid-Afrika se demokrasie te analiseer, was daar beperkte ondersoek gebasseer op die analitiese benadering van demokratiese konsolidasie. Verder het baie min`n holistiese benadering toegepas om die staat van Suid-Afrika se huidige demokrasie te analiseer. Dit is hierdie tekortkoming wat diė studie addresseer deur `n analise van Suid-Afrika se demokrasie gedurende die jare van die Zuma administrasie. Die navorsingsvrae wat hierdie studie motiveer is of Suid-Afrika se demokrasie struktureel, houdingsgewys en gedragsgewys agteruitgegaan het gedurende die Zuma administrasie , en of swak regering – verstaan as deel van persoonlike of spesiale verhoudings- die proses van agteruitgang gefasiliteer het. Die studie gebruik `n analitiese raamwerk van demokratiese verval om die navorsingsprobleem aan te spreek, aangeneem van die werk van Schedler (2001) en andere soos Foa en Monk (2017) om die toestande te konstrueer wat aanwysend is van die proses van agteruitgang: swak regering [as `n opstoker], swak strukture, negatiewe houdings en ontwrigtende gedrag. Die studie bevind dat Suid-Afrika se demokrasie het struktureel, houdingsgewys, en gedragsgewys agteruitgegaan- en dat swak regering instrumenteel was om die proses te fasiliteer. Die studie wys ook dat die oorkoepelende nasionale projek van die ANC – die Nasionale Demokratiese Rewolusie en die samegaande strategie van kader ontplooïng – wat gedien het as katalisator vir die staatskaping projek en web van begunstiging– onder die Zuma administrasie. Deur die uitplasing van lojaliste in kernposisies en deur deel te vorm van persoonlike oorwegings., het die Zuma administrasie die onpartydige aspirasies van die iv Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Grondwet ondermyn. Die gevolg was dat struktureel, die web van bevoorregting onder Zuma gedegenereer tot `n kultuur van minagting vir konstitusionele regering, soos getipeer in die Nkandla geval. Verder wys dit die verskriklike koste van swak regering , soos aangedui deur die styging in werkloosheid, armoede, en ongelykheid te midde van sukkelende parastatal soos Eskom. Die studie wys dat houdings en swak regeringsvertoning Suid-Afrikaners se geloof weggevreet het en maak dit Suid-Afrikaanse voormalige ondersteuners ontvanklik is vir nie- demokratiese Partye soos die EFF. Die oop beleid van radikalisme word ook vergesel van `n toename in geweldadige protes as reaksie op die regering se swak vertoning. Terwyl die toestande duidelik die verval van Suid-Afrika se demokrasie uitwys, is agteruitgang nie `n end staat nie, maar `n proses wat omgedraai kan word. v Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Acknowledgements To my heavenly Father and Lord and saviour Jesus Christ, whom without this project would not be realized. Father God, I thank you! Your grace and mercy have carried me, your provision has seen to me, your love has strengthened me and your word – according to Proverbs 3:5-6 and Jeremiah 29:11 – has sustained me. All glory and honor in the making of this thesis and the success of my life belongs to you. To you Lord I sing a Hallelujah! To my parents, Randall and Samanthia Fredericks, I am eternally grateful for all your love, support, encouragement and guidance in the duration of this research and throughout my life. You are my rock and biggest cheerleaders. I thank you for affording me the world of opportunities and for allowing me to set a new standard in our family. This thesis would not have been achievable without all your hard work and sacrifices. Although I would never be able to repay you, and know you would never ask, I attempt to by asking that you wear my achievements as badges of honor. This thesis is dedicated to the both of you. I thank God for the both of you. Wade Fredericks, I thank you for being fearless and inspiring.

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