ECE 333 Green Electric Energy

Lecture 23 PV Status and Issues Professor Andrew Stillwell Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Slides Courtesy of Prof. George Gross OUTLINE

. PV solar system status . PV technology benefits . Key drivers of the PV system growth . PV system installation costs . Major challenges in PV solar resource integration 2018 WORLD STATUS OF PV SOLAR RESOURCES

. More than 102 GW of new capacity additions have increased the global cumulative PV capacity to over 509 GW . The Asia-Pacific region with more than 295 GW is now the world’s leading region in terms of total installed capacity – about 58 % of the global PV capacity 2018 WORLD STATUS OF PV SOLAR RESOURCES: EUROPE

. European PV investment picked up in 2018 after a downward trend for the last few years – primarily due to Turkey’s additions to PV capacity . 11.3 GW of PV capacity were connected to the grid in Europe with Turkey leading with 1.6 GW . The top 5 nations in compounded annual growth rate are Ireland (121 %), Poland and Portugal (tied at 47 %), Russia (40 %) and Netherlands (37 %) 2018 WORLD STATUS OF PV SYSTEMS

. China, US and India were the top three nations in terms of PV capacity additions in 2018 . China installed 44.4 GW of PV, a decrease of 16 % from the 52.8 GW installed in 2017 . The US capacity additions remained stable at 10.6 GW in 2018 , same as in 2017 . In India, 8.3 GW of PV capacity was installed, a decrease of 16 % from 9.6 GW in 2017 2018 STATUS

. The global PV cumulative capacity reached 509.3 GW in 2018 . The addition of 102.4 GW repre– sents a 25 % growth over the cumulative global capacity in 2017 and a 32 fold increase since 2008 . China installed 44.4 GW to continue as the largest solar capacity nation in the world . Europe’s share at 25 % of the global PV capacity represents a cumulative total of 125.8 GW

Lakelands Park Middle School, MD hosts a 111 kW rooftop system 2018 PV SOLAR CAPACITY ADDITIONS: TOP 10 COUNTRIES

Source: SolarPower Europe Global Market Outlook 2019-2023

102.4 GW total 2018 capacity additions GLOBAL CUMULATIVE PV SOLAR CAPACITY BY REGION: 2000 – 2018

Source: SolarPower Europe Global Market Outlook 2019-2023

Europe America China APAC MEA r.o.t.w. 2009 – 2018: GLOBAL PV ELECTRICITY GENERATION

600 -

previous year generation 131.10 500

400 125.30 report.pdf - full increase from - 2019 , pg. 52; sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy 2019 - 300 75.17 -

TWh previous year review - 62.26 453.50 stats 200 - 48.18 328.20

253.03 review/bp

40.67 - 100 190.77 38.08 142.59 30.50 101.92 12.83 63.84 8.28 33.33 Energy World of Review Statistical BP 0 12.22 20.50 :

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business economics/statistical 2010 – 2018 GLOBAL CUMULATIVE PV CAPACITY

600,000 509,300 500,000 405,400 400,000 306,500 300,000 237,000 MW 200,000 178,391 138,856 100,504 100,000 70,469 40,336

0 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 – 2018 EUROPEAN PV ANNUAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS

140 previous year capacity - Europe - 120 11.3 9.3 80; annual capacity added 7.6 100 05 /SolarPower 8.6 2023 . pg. 7.0 2019 / 2 018 - p 80 10.5

GW 17.7 2023 .pdf 60 114.5 content/uploads/ 105.2 2019 -

97.6 - 89.0 40 22.5 82.0 71.5 Outlook - 53.8 15.4

20 Market 31.3 - 6.6 4.5 15.9 Global 9.3 Global Market Outlook forPower Solar 0 4.8 : - http://www.solarpowereurope.org/wp 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source 2007 – 2018 EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM WIND AND PV

600 - PV 500 139.1 124.5 400

113.3 report.pdf wind 109.3 - full - 2019 , pg. 52;

98.4 sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy 2019 - 300 86.4 - TWh

71.5 review -

46.7 stats 200 384.3 404.4 - 23.3 317.8 322.2 14.2 263.7 7.5 247.5 review/bp 3.8 214.6 - 100 186.6 135.3 153.4 105.7 121.3 BP Statistical Review of World Energy Energy World of Review Statistical BP 0 :

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business economics/statistical ECEB SOLAR PANELS 22 , 2019 May Gazette Archives, Gazette - Stephen Haas/News : Source THE WAY SOLAR BECAME SO CHEAP

Source: Gregory F. Nemet, “How Solar Energy Became Cheap,” Routledge, 2018 PRODUCTION AND INSTALLATION IN 4 NATIONS

100,000 China 2018 Germany 10,000 Routledge,

1,000 Japan

100

installed capacity US How Solar Energy Became ” Cheap, Solar Energy How “ ,

MW 10 Nemet

1 F. Gregory 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 :

MW manufactured capacity Source 2009 – 2018: PV ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY LEADING NATIONS

180 - China 160 US 140 Japan 120 Italy report.pdf Germany - full 100 - 2019 , pg. 52; sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy 2019 - 80 - TWh review - 60 stats - 40 review/bp - 20

0 Energy World of Review Statistical BP 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : Source https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business economics/statistical 2008 – 2018 US CUMMULATIVE INSTALLED PV CAPACITY

70,000 - Europe previous year cumulative capacity - 11; 60,000 10,600 2023 . pg. 05 /SolarPower

50,000 2023 .pdf 2 018 -

10,600 2019 / 2019 - -

p 40,000 Outlook annual capacity added 15,100 - content/uploads/ MW 30,000 Market - 51,527

7,479 Global 20,000 40,927 6,247

25,827 Global Market Outlook forPower Solar : 10,000 4,782 18,348 298 285 852 783 3,373 12,101 Source 485 1,168 7,319 1,926 3,946 0 2,020 - http://www.solarpowereurope.org/wp 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 THE 2018 STATUS OF US PV SYSTEMS

. US is a small, but growing, player in the global solar capacity and energy arena . The 2018 US cumulative PV capacity increased to roughly 62.1 GW, with 10.6 GW of new PV capacity added in 2018 . The 10.6 GW PV capacity installed in 2018 was over 14 times the 2009 amount of installed PV capacity US SOLAR ENERGY IS BOOMING

. PV solar installation costs fell 70 % since 2010 . The community solar grew 107 % from 734 MW in 2017 to 1,523 MW in 2018 . Conformance with state RPS requirements is no longer as key a driver, as many new projects are corporate procurements of off–site solar projects, typically, via various PPA mechanisms 2018 US STATUS OF PV SYSTEMS BY STATES

. Nearly 1/3 of the US PV capacity installations were in CA . CA, NC and AZ account for nearly 54 % of the cumulative PV capacity in the U.S. . The solar industry in NC is growing rapidly, due, in part, to the state’s Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (REPS) US TOP 10 STATES WITH LARGEST PV CAPACITY ADDITIONS IN 2018

3,500 3,396

3,000

2,500

p 2,000

MW 1,500 map 994 - 1,000 909 858 550 500 376 366 353 342 321

0 https://www.seia.org/states : CA TX NC FL NV NY NJ MN AZ MA Source TOP 10 STATES WITH INSTALLED SOLAR PV CAPACITY IN 2018

data NY 1,628 - UT 1,651 research - FL 2,290 industry MA 2,465 - NJ 2,733 TX 2,925 NV 3,145 AZ 3,739 NC 5,261 CA 24,464

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 : 2018 data, available at https://www.seia.org/solar Source US UTILITY–SCALE PV SOLAR CAPACITY FACTORS : 2014 – 2017

Source : EIA, Annual Electric Generator Inventory and Annual Electric Utility Data, available at https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39832 35

29.1 29.0 30 28.4 27.8 24.6 24.7 25 23.2 21.0 20 16.8 16.5 15

10

5 solar PV in % in factor capacity PV solar 0 CA NC AZ NV TX GA UT NJ MA U.S. average 2019 US UTILITY – SCALE SOLAR PROJECTS list - projects - solar - resources/major - data; https://www.seia.org/research : 2019 Source THE 2019 FIVE LARGEST US PV INSTALLATIONS

capacity electricity plant location year built owner ( MW ) purchaser

Rosamond, BHE 579 2015 SCE CA Renewables

Copper PG&E & SC Boulder City, Sempra Mountain Solar 552 2016 Public Power NV Generation Facility Authority

Desert Sunlight Riverside NextEra, PG&E & 550 2015 Solar Farm County, CA Sumitomo SCE

Berkshire Topaz Solar San Luis 550 2014 Hathaway PG&E Farm Obispo, CA Energy SCE Mount Signal 8minutenergy Calexico, CA 460 2018 & SD Gas & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_photovoltaic_power_stations Solar Renewables : Electric Source SOLAR STAR FARM 4 .jpg - image - 28 - 11 - 2 /news/bigimage/ 2014/11/2014 http://www.techspot.com/images : Source SOLAR STAR FARM

. The Solar Star Farm is a 579–MW PV located in Antelope Valley near Rosamond, CA . Completed in June 2015 by SunPower, Solar Star became the world’s largest solar farm in terms of capacity from the 1.7 million solar panels installed on a 13 km2 (3,200 acres) area SOLAR STAR FARM

. Compared to other large plants, Solar Star uses a smaller number of arrays, each array is mounted on a single–axis tracker . Generation of clean electricity form the farm is expected to power about 255,000 homes and avoid

the annual emission of 570,000 tons of CO 2 LONGYANGXIA DAM SOLAR PARK .htm _17210451 /content - 01/02 2014 //http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/m/powerchina/ Source: LONGYANGXIA DAM SOLAR PARK

. The world’s largest PV plant is the 850-MW Longyangxia Dam Solar Park, which is located in, Qinghai Province, China . Construction began in March 2013 and the first phase of the project (530 MW) was commissioned on December 4, 2013 . The second phase of the project was completed in 2015 . The expected annual generation is 824 GWh CESTAS SOLAR FARM france/ - cestas - in - built - be - to - farm - solar - mw - 300 - /new electric.com - solar.schneider http:// : Source CESTAS SOLAR FARM

. With a total capacity of 300 MW, Cestas Solar Farm is the largest PV plant in Europe . This solar park is located at Cestas, in Southwest France, and is expected to supply electricity to meet the needs of 250,000 people . Electricity is sold under a 20–year PPA with the French utility EDF at a price of 105 €/MWh ROOFTOP PV SOLAR 2012/12 /files/ 1 http://assets.inhabitat.com/wpcontent/blogs.dir/ : Source ROOFTOP PV SOLAR IN US

. Rooftop solar electricity still represents a small portion of US electricity generation . Residential solar continues its rebound, growing 3 % quarter-over-quarter and 8 % year-over-year; Q2 2019 was the fourth consecutive quarter of more than 600 MWdc of installed residential capacity . Government incentives to promote solar energy have led to widespread rooftop solar in the Western states – CA, AZ, CO and NV ROOFTOP PV SOLAR IN US

. Location–dependent incentives for utility customers to install rooftop solar panels vary from state to state and include tax credits, installation cost rebates and net metering . At present 43 states, the District of Columbia and 3 territories offer net metering US NET METERING STATUS

Source: DSIRE 2019, available at https://s3.amazonaws.com/ncsolarcen-prod/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/DSIRE_Net_Metering_April2019.pdf NET METERING

. The implementation of net metering varies from one jurisdiction to another . In CA, solar owners receive federal tax credits, rebates under the so–called CA Solar Initiative, which is being phased out, and net metering; CA has more installed capacity than the total capacity of the rest of the nation KEY PV BENEFITS

. Residential and commercial PV system installations reduce the amount of electricity these customers purchase from the local utility . As PV systems produce the most power when the insolation is highest at noon, their contributions can reduce the need for and use of the expensive and polluting fossil generation units KEY PV BENEFITS

. PV systems are important supply resources that lessen the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels . The clean PV–generated electricity helps reduce the amount of GHG – a major contributor to global climate change . The growing PV industry provides local jobs and economic development opportunities to states and regions to create sustainable paths to meet the nation’s energy needs THE KEY DRIVERS OF US PV GROWTH

. A most important driver is the declining costs of installed PV; in addition, the legislative and regulatory initiatives at the federal and state levels helped the growth of US PV in the past few years . The federal drivers include: . tax incentives that were established to accelerate investment into PV installations; . loan guarantees provided by the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), allowed the US Department of Energy to provide preferential financing support to qualifying renewable energy projects; . cash grants that provides commercial projects an alternative to the tax credit in the form of a cash grant PV INSTALLATION COSTS BY SECTORS: Q1 2011 – 2018

residential module inverter BOS labor other 7

6 commercial utility

5

p 4 W 103

$ / $ / 3

2

1

0 https://data.nrel.gov/submissions/ : Source GERMANY PV INSTALLATION COSTS AND SUBSIDIES

installed costs 4 20

3 15 p W / 2 10 http://www.economist.com// : euros billion euros billion

1 subsidies 5 source

0 0 20071 2 3 20104 5 6 20137 year 2018 INSTALLED COST TREND

. The total installed costs for PV systems dropped by 38 % from those in 2013 . The inflation–adjusted system cost reductions from 2017 to 2018 are $ 0.14/W, $ 0.05/W and $ 0.02/W for residential, commercial and fixed–tilt utility–scale, respectively . The module and inverter pricing, in general, has been decreasing since 2011 US SOLAR PV COMPONENT PRICES

Source: GTM Research US Solar Market Insight US ANNUAL PV SOLAR CAPACITY ADDITIONS AND PRICES

Source: Wood Mackenzie and SEIA; available online at https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data LCOE OF UTILITY–SCALE RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION /May/IRENA 2019 ; available online at at online 12 ; available 2018 , p. .pdf2018 - in $/kWh /media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/ - - Power - Generations - Costs - IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in : Source https://www.irena.org/ _Renewable GLOBAL WEIGHTED AVERAGE TOTAL INSTALLED COSTS /May/IRENA 2019 ; available online at at online 14 ; available 2018 , p. .pdf2018 - in $/kW /media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/ - - Power - Generations - Costs - IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in : Source https://www.irena.org/ _Renewable GLOBAL CAPACITY FACTORS AND LCOE FOR ONSHORE WIND /May/IRENA 2019 ; available online at at online 19 ; available 2018 , p. .pdf2018 - in $/kWh $/kW capacity factor capacity /media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/ - - Power - Generations - Costs - IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in : Source https://www.irena.org/ _Renewable UTILITY–SCALE SOLAR PV TOTAL INSTALLED COST TRENDS /May/IRENA 2019 ; available online at at online 45 ; available 2018 , p. .pdf2018 - in $/kW /media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/ - - Power - Generations - Costs - IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in : Source https://www.irena.org/ _Renewable 2017 PV MODULE MANUFACTURING STATUS

. The top–10 manufacturing companies supplied 50 GW of PV modules in 2017, an increase of 45 % over the 2016 production output . Five of the top ten companies are publicly–listed, vertically–integrated, China–based (c-Si) solar panel manufacturers 2017 PV MODULE MANUFACTURING STATUS

, and JA Solar Holdings are the leaders in module shipments to meet US market needs  In Japan, the leading domestic PV module suppliers are Sharp, Kyocera and Panasonic . The top two suppliers in European PV module market are Schott Solar and SolarWorld in Germany TOP 10 PV MODULE MANUFACTURERS IN 2018

company country Holding Co. Ltd. China JA Solar Holding Co. Ltd. China usa/ Trina Solar Ltd. China manufacturers - LONGi Green Energy Technology China - panel - solar Canadian Solar Canada - Hanwha Q CELLS South Korea Risen Energy China GCLSI China

Talesun Solar China http://news.energysage.com/best :

First Solar Inc USA Source Q1 2018 PV MODULE EXPANSION ANNOUNCEMENTS - expansion - capacity - manufacturing - 24 - blog/solar - reached 2018 - q 1 - - in - tech.org/editors - https://www.pv announcements : Source DOE SOLAR PROGRAM GOALS

. The US Department of Energy Sunshot Initiative is a national collaborative effort to make solar energy cost–competitive with fossil–fired generation technology by the end of this decade . The goals for PV by 2020 are 4 – 5 ¢/kWh in the residential sector, 5 – 6 ¢/kWh in the commercial sector, and 4 – 6 ¢/kWh in the utility sector PV DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES

. The efficiency of typical PV modules used in energy production is still rather low . Solar energy is highly uncertain, variable and intermittent renewable resource and the PV system electricity production has limited controllability and dispachability PV POWER OUTPUT OF 1 – MW CdTe ARRAY IN GERMANY 1000 900 800 700 600 500

kW 400 300 200 100 0 CAISO : samples collected on a 5 – minute basis source PV POWER OUTPUT AT THE NEVADA 70 kW POLYCRYSTALLINE ARRAY 80 source: CAISO

70

60

50

40 kW 30

20

10

0

data collected on a 10 – second basis CHRONOLOGICAL PV OUTPUT AND ERCOT LOAD PATTERNS source: http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/

70 16

) 60 ) 12 50 MW GW ( 40 ( 8

30 load output output 20 4 10 0 0 1Mon25 Tue 49 Wed 73 Thu97 Fri121 Sat145 Sun