Maidstone Economic Development Needs Study Stage Two
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Maidstone Economic Development Needs Study Stage Two Final Report Maidstone Borough Council April 2020 © 2020 Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd, trading as Lichfields. All Rights Reserved. Registered in England, no. 2778116. 14 Regent’s Wharf, All Saints Street, London N1 9RL Formatted for double sided printing. Plans based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A 60172/01/CGJ/BE 18032803v4 Maidstone Economic Development Needs Study : Stage Two Contents 1.0 Introduction 1 Scope of Study 1 Structure of the report 2 2.0 Requirements for Employment Space 3 Methodology 3 A. Forecasts of Job Growth 4 B. Past Development Rates 8 C. Future Labour Supply 9 Summary of Net Employment Space Requirements 11 Land Requirement 12 Synthesis and Conclusions 13 3.0 Requirement for Main Town Centre Uses 16 Study area population and expenditure 16 Base year trading 2019 17 Class A1 to A5 floorspace capacity 18 Qualitative need for retail facilities 19 Commercial leisure uses 23 Conclusions on commercial leisure facilities 29 4.0 Needs of Local Businesses 30 Business Profile 30 Current Business Premises 30 Future Growth Plans 31 Summary 32 5.0 Review of Employment Land Supply 33 Economic Development Site Areas 34 Employment and Mixed-Use Allocations 35 6.0 Strategy Implications for Employment Uses 36 Quantitative Balance 36 Meeting Future Needs 37 7.0 Strategy Implications for Town Centre Uses 41 Maidstone Economic Development Needs Study : Stage Two Accommodating growth 41 Development management policies 43 8.0 Overarching Conclusions 47 Employment Uses 47 Main Town Centre Uses 47 Maidstone Economic Development Needs Study : Stage Two Appendices Appendix 1 Town centre uses study area Appendix 2 Convenience Goods Capacity Appendix 3 Comparison Goods Capacity Appendix 4 Food and Beverage Capacity Appendix 5 Experian Data Guide Appendix 6 Business Survey Questions Appendix 7 Employment Site Plans Appendix 8 Employment Site Assessment Criteria Appendix 9 Employment Site Assessment Matrix Maidstone Economic Development Needs Study : Stage Two 1.0 Introduction 1.1 Maidstone Borough Council ("the Council") commissioned Lichfields to undertake an integrated Economic Development Needs Study (EDNS) for the Borough. The purpose of the EDNS is to provide an up-to-date, robust and comprehensive evidence base for employment, retail, leisure and town centre needs within the Borough during the period to 2042. 1.2 The EDNS will be used by the Council to inform a review of existing planning policies and to develop new spatial strategies for economic development, having regard to the revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF). The methodology used in the study also draws on guidance contained in the Planning Practice Guidance (PPG). 1.3 The study follows a two-stage integrated approach as follows: 1 Stage One - Taking Stock of the Current Position: The provision of a baseline report demonstrating a holistic understanding of the current economic 'state' of the Borough and its centres, encompassing all employment, retail, leisure and main town centre uses, and commercial sectors. This also includes commercial viewpoints regarding the current local market and providing a narrative framing the key issues facing Maidstone's commercial sector; and 2 Stage Two - Future Needs Assessment: The completion of a substantive integrated EDNS in accordance with Government guidance and best practice for retail, leisure and employment needs. This will include the identification of potential policy approaches and spatial strategies for the forthcoming Maidstone Local Plan Review (LPR). 1.4 The baseline Stage One part of the study was completed in July 2019. This report sets out the results from Stage Two and should be read alongside the Stage One report. Scope of Study 1.5 The NPPF (para. 11) indicates that Local Planning Authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area, and Local Plans should meet objectively assessed needs. The EDNS assessment focuses on a range of employment, retail, leisure and town centre uses, broadly defined by the following use classes: B1 Business: offices (B1a), research & development (B1b) and light industrial (B1c). B2 General Industrial: typically comprising factory and manufacturing space. B8 Storage and Distribution: warehouses, wholesale and distribution. A1-A5 Retail: shops (A1), financial and business services (A2), food and drink (A3), drinking establishments (A4) and takeaways (A5). D2 Assembly and Leisure: cinemas, theatres, gyms, sports facilities, ten-pin bowling, bingo, trampolining and other leisure uses. 1.6 References to 'employment space' refer to all B class elements noted above. In addition, the term 'industrial space' is used to refer to both manufacturing (B1c/B2) and warehouse and distribution (B8) uses. 1.7 A summary of the study methodology is set out in the introduction to the Stage One report. Pg 1 Maidstone Economic Development Needs Study : Stage Two Structure of the report 1.8 The report is structured under the following sections: Requirements for employment space (Chapter 2.0): establishes the future need for Class B1, B2 and B8 floorspace in Maidstone Borough. Requirements for main town centre uses (Chapter 3.0): establishes the future need for Class A1 retail, A3 to A5 food/beverage and D2 leisure. Needs of local businesses (Chapter 4.0): reviews the findings of a business survey undertaken as part of the study to consider requirements for employment space in the future. Review of employment land supply (Chapter 5.0): a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the existing supply of employment land and sites across the Borough. Strategy implications for employment uses (Chapter 6.0): draws together forecasts of future employment space needs and estimates of pipeline employment land supply to identify overall demand/supply balance in quantitative and qualitative terms. Strategy implications for town centre uses (Chapter 7.0): analysis of the options for accommodating the future need for additional main town centre uses within existing premises and development opportunities. Overarching conclusions are provided in Chapter 8.0. Pg 2 Maidstone Economic Development Needs Study : Stage Two 2.0 Requirements for Employment Space 2.1 This section considers future economic growth needs in Maidstone by drawing on several methodologies that are guided by the PPG. These scenarios are used to inform an assessment of future employment space needs for office and industrial (i.e. manufacturing and distribution) uses over the study period to 2042. Methodology 2.2 The NPPF requires local authorities to “set out a clear economic vision and strategy which positively and proactively encourages sustainable economic growth, having regard to Local Industrial Strategies and other local policies for economic development and regeneration” (para 81.a). 2.3 Within this context, a number of potential future economic scenarios have been developed in this study to provide a framework for considering future economic growth needs and B class employment space requirements in Maidstone up to 2042. In line with the PPG, these future scenarios draw upon: 1 Projections of employment growth in the main B class sectors (labour demand) derived from economic forecasts produced by Experian (dated September 2019); 2 Consideration of past trends in completions of employment space based on monitoring data collected by Maidstone Borough Council, and how these trends might change in the future. 3 Estimates of local labour supply growth based on demographic assumptions applied as part of the 2019 Maidstone Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) Update. 2.4 All of these approaches have limitations and consideration needs to be given as to how appropriate each is to the circumstances in Maidstone. Further, to be robust, the economic growth potential and likely demand for employment space in the Borough needs to be assessed under a variety of future scenarios, to reflect both lower and higher growth conditions that could arise in the future. 2.5 The approach to planning for economic development needs set out within the current Maidstone Borough Local Plan (adopted October 2017) was based on and guided by previous technical economic evidence prepared in 2014 which identified an Experian ‘base’ forecast as the preferred approach. From a consistency point of view this EDNS study considers the most up- to-date Experian economic forecasts as the starting point for future economic growth needs in Maidstone Borough over the new Local Plan period (i.e. scenario 1). The past trends and labour supply based scenarios (i.e. scenarios 2 and 3) are provided to sensitivity test the Experian baseline scenario and to help place it into context. 2.6 It should also be noted that the ultimate judgement as to the level of need that the local authority should plan for is not purely quantitative, and that there will be a number of qualitative factors to consider (discussed in other sections of the report). These factors will influence the employment space requirements that will need to be planned for and should be considered alongside the following modelled scenarios. 2.7 Outputs from these scenarios are presented for three different time periods as follows: 1 The new Local Plan period 2022-2037. 2 An extended Local Plan period 2022-2042 (to allow for potential delays in Plan adoption). 3 The period 2019-2037 for context. Pg 3 Maidstone Economic Development Needs Study : Stage Two A. Forecasts of Job Growth 2.8 Forecasts of employment growth in Maidstone were obtained from the September 2019 release of Experian’s UK Local Market Forecasts which take account recent regional and national macroeconomic assumptions. 2.9 It is important to note that there are inherent limitations to the use of economic forecasts of this type, particularly within the context of recent economic and political changes. National macroeconomic assumptions are taken as the starting point and then modelled down to the regional and local levels by reference to the existing economic profile and sectoral composition of an area.