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Study on 2030 overall targets for the Energy Community Energy efficiency, RES, GHG emissions reduction TU Wien, EEG, REKK June 2019 www.energy-community.org This report was financed by the Energy Community. Final report Study on 2030 overall targets (energy efficiency, RES, GHG emissions reduction) for the Energy Community Authors: Gustav Resch, Albert Hiesl, Lukas Liebmann - TU Wien / EEG Andreas Türk, Dorian Frieden, Camilla Neumann … - Joanneum Research Laszlo Szabo, Andras Mezosi - REKK Vienna, 12 June 2019 Client: Energy Community Secretariat Lead partner: Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), Energy Economics Group Gusshausstraße 25-29 / 370-3, A-1040 Vienna, Austria Contributing partners (subcontractors): Joanneum Research, Austria REKK, Hungary Final report – study on 2030 overall targets Table of contents 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Rationale / Understanding ........................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Objectives and expected results .................................................................................................................................. 6 1.3 Structure of this report ................................................................................................................................................ 6 2 Energy efficiency .............................................................................................................................. 7 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................. 7 2.2 Options for Energy Efficiency target setting .............................................................................................................. 12 2.3 Socio-economic parameters ...................................................................................................................................... 14 2.4 Pathways for Energy Efficiency in accordance with target setting options .............................................................. 19 2.4.1 Overview on the assessed Energy Efficiency target setting options ..................................................................................... 19 2.4.2 Overview of Energy Efficiency Targets for all CPs and the EnC ............................................................................................. 20 2.5 Resulting Energy Efficiency Target ranges by Contracting Party ................................................................................ 25 2.5.1 Resulting Energy Efficiency Targets for Albania .................................................................................................................... 25 2.5.2 Resulting Energy Efficiency Targets for Bosnia & Herzegovina ............................................................................................. 38 2.5.3 Resulting Energy Efficiency Targets for Georgia .................................................................................................................... 50 2.5.4 Resulting Energy Efficiency Targets for Kosovo* ................................................................................................................... 62 2.5.5 Resulting Energy Efficiency Targets for Moldova .................................................................................................................. 73 2.5.6 Resulting Energy Efficiency Targets for Montenegro ............................................................................................................ 86 2.5.7 Resulting Energy Efficiency Targets for North Macedonia .................................................................................................... 97 2.5.8 Resulting Energy Efficiency Targets for Serbia .................................................................................................................... 110 2.5.9 Resulting Energy Efficiency Targets for Ukraine .................................................................................................................. 122 2.5.10 Summary on options for Energy Efficiency target setting ................................................................................................... 133 3 Renewable energies ..................................................................................................................... 135 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................. 135 3.1.1 Target setting at EU level .................................................................................................................................................... 135 3.2 Options for RE target setting ................................................................................................................................... 139 3.2.1 Mimicking the EU approach: Options in accordance with the principles followed at EU level .......................................... 139 3.2.2 Alternative options for RE target setting ............................................................................................................................ 140 3.3 Target Calculation .................................................................................................................................................... 141 3.3.1 RE targets at Energy Community level ................................................................................................................................ 144 3.3.2 RE targets for Albania ......................................................................................................................................................... 146 3.3.3 RE targets for Bosnia and Herzegovina ............................................................................................................................... 148 3.3.4 RE targets for Georgia ......................................................................................................................................................... 149 3.3.5 RE targets for Kosovo* ........................................................................................................................................................ 150 3.3.6 RE targets for North Macedonia ......................................................................................................................................... 151 3.3.7 RE targets for Moldova ....................................................................................................................................................... 153 3.3.8 RE targets for Montenegro ................................................................................................................................................. 154 3.3.9 RE targets for Serbia ........................................................................................................................................................... 155 3.3.10 RE targets for Ukraine ......................................................................................................................................................... 156 3.4 Assessment of related impacts ................................................................................................................................ 157 3.4.1 Approach used for the brief analysis of impacts ................................................................................................................. 158 3.4.2 Results at Energy Community level ..................................................................................................................................... 160 3.4.3 Results at Contracting Party level ....................................................................................................................................... 164 4 GHG emission reduction .............................................................................................................. 187 4.1 Target setting at EU level ......................................................................................................................................... 187 4.1.1 2020 GHG targets ............................................................................................................................................................... 187 Page ii Final report – study on 2030 overall targets 4.1.2 2030 GHG targets ............................................................................................................................................................... 189 4.2 Options for GHG target setting for the CPs.............................................................................................................. 193 4.2.1 Top-down target setting ..................................................................................................................................................... 193 4.2.2 Bottom-up GDP related target setting ................................................................................................................................ 195 4.2.3 Hybrid top-down (ETS) and bottom-up (non-ETS) target setting (Option 3) .......................................................................
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