Agricultural Value Chain Competitiveness and Safety Enhancement Project (RRP CAM 50264) Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment September 2020 CAM: Agricultural Value Chain Competitiveness and Safety Enhancement Project Table of Contents I. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 II. Shortlisted roads ............................................................................................................... 1 III. AVC sectors and enterprises ............................................................................................ 2 IV. Climate Risk ....................................................................................................................... 2 4.1 Current Climate ............................................................................................................... 2 4.2 Climate change projections ............................................................................................. 3 4.2.1 Projected changes in precipitation ............................................................................ 4 4.2.2 Projected changes in temperature ............................................................................ 4 4.3.3 Climate change implications ..................................................................................... 5 4.3.4 Subproject Screening ............................................................................................... 5 V. Vulnerability assessment .................................................................................................................. 6 5.1 Roads ............................................................................................................................. 6 5.1.1 Climate exposure of roads ....................................................................................... 6 5.1.2 Climate sensitivities of roads .................................................................................... 7 5.1.3 Adaptive capacity of roads ....................................................................................... 8 5.1.4 Vulnerability assessment - Roads ............................................................................ 9 5.2 Agriculture Value Chains ................................................................................................. 9 5.2.1 Climate exposure and sensitivities of AVCs ........................................................... 10 5.2.3 Adaptive capacity of AVCs ..................................................................................... 13 5.2.4 Vulnerability assessment - AVCs ........................................................................... 14 VI. Identification of adaptation measures .......................................................................................... 17 6.1 Roads ........................................................................................................................... 18 6.1.1 General adaptation approaches - Roads ................................................................ 18 6.1.2 Specific adaptation measures - Roads ................................................................... 19 Embankments ................................................................................................................. 20 Cross-drainage structures ............................................................................................... 20 Mekong flood pulse ......................................................................................................... 21 6.2 Agriculture Value Chains ............................................................................................... 21 6.2.1 General adaptation approaches – Agro-enterprise Facilities and Agricultural Cooperatives Infrastructure ............................................................................................. 21 6.2.2 General adaptation approaches – AVC Crops........................................................ 23 6.3 Adaptation costs ............................................................................................................ 24 6.3.1 Adaptation costs - Roads ....................................................................................... 24 6.3.2 Adaptation costs - AVCs ........................................................................................ 26 VII Monitoring and Evaluation ................................................................................................ 28 Annex A: Vulnerability Scores - Roads .................................................................................. 29 Annex B: Impact and Vulnerability Scoring Matrices ............................................................. 30 Annex C: Possible Climate Proofing Measures for AVC Facilities ......................................... 32 Annex D: Calculations for Adaptation Costs for Roads Component ....................................... 33 I. Introduction 1. Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) are working on the preparation of the Agricultural Value Chain Competitiveness and Safety Enhancement Project (ACSEP) to tackle the sector problem of low productivity, low value addition, and low resource efficiency of Cambodia’s agriculture with the following outputs: (i) agricultural value chain financing enhanced; (ii) agricultural value chain linkage and safety strengthened, and; (iii) agricultural value chain connectivity enhanced. The project will have the following outcome: value addition of five competitive agricultural products (CAP) in the project areas increased. 2. The project will focus on six contiguous target provinces making a link from the northwest down to the center and to the east of the country, i.e., Kampong Cham, Kampong Thom, Oddar Meanchey, Preah Vihear, Siem Reap, and Tboung Khmum. During the project preparation, five non-rice crop and livestock products from these provinces will be addressed by the project to improve their value chains with focus on export and domestic markets for high value products and import substitution. 3. This Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) covers assessments of climate risks, climate exposure, sensitivity, and vulnerability and identification of adaptation measures for the project’s components. 4. Output 1 will promote the investment of AEs and ACs (potential borrowers) to strengthen value chains of CAPs through financial intermediation loans [these AEs and ACs are called participating AEs (PAEs) and participating ACs (PACs)]. Output 2 will address key bottlenecks in the value chains, including agribusinesses’ sourcing of sufficient quality raw materials and famers’ access to quality seeds and planting materials and markets. Output 3 will improve at least 110 km of rural roads to connect farm to market. Existing laterite roads will be upgraded with double bituminous surface treatment. 5. The CRVA is based on initial screening of road subprojects by AWARE and on findings of vulnerability assessment surveys of both roads and AVC enterprises which were conducted during July and September 2019 by the climate change and disaster risk management team using the Cambodia Climate Change for Decision Support System developed by International Center for Environmental Management (ICEM). The information/data were collected through direct field observation and discussions with technical staff from respective PDRDs, operators of AVC enterprises, commune councilors/commune disaster risk management committee, and local people. It also drew on a range of available and existing climate data and climate projections. II. Shortlisted roads 6. Under the ACSEP, two candidate rural roads have been shortlisted for each of the six provinces for rehabilitation. Six have been selected for detailed engineering design (DED). The shortlisted roads provide potential connection from farms to markets for the five value chain commodities of cassava, cashew, mango, vegetables, and poultry. 7. The shortlisted roads are all under the inventory of the Ministry of Rural Development (MRD). Annual and periodic maintenance are the responsibility of respective Provincial Departments of Rural Development (PDRD). 2 III. Agricultural Value Chain sectors and enterprises 8. The project comprises five value chains: cashew, cassava, mango, vegetables, and poultry. In these agricultural value chains (AVC), the project will address constraints and bottlenecks in primary production and downstream to be addressed by outputs of the ACSEP. The project will contribute to the design of initiatives to fulfil output 1 “post-harvest and logistic facilities strengthened” and output 2 “agricultural production and service infrastructure improved”. This may involve improvements in product, process, functions, and infrastructure. Investments will focus on postharvest infrastructure such as storage facilities, slaughtering, primary and subsequent processing, packaging and transport and logistics. 9. AVCs supported by the project will be variously located among all project provinces. Examples include cassava drying and milling in Tboung Khmum, Kampong Cham and Oddar Meanchey; cashew drying and packaging in Tboung Khmum, Kampong Thom and Preah Vihear; mango drying and processing in Tboung Khmum and Kampong Thom; and vegetable growing and packaging in Siem Reap. Poultry raising and processing is carried on in SMEs in all provinces. IV. Climate Risk A. Current