Argentine Supplies Forecast 2020-21 MICA 58th AGM and Conference November 4th. - 7th. 2019 Austin TX

Beef Production

In 2019, the government of Arrgentina changed carcass classification system. Beef demand Beef Exports Argentine Beef Exports (TON) Other destinations China 600.000

500.000 131.712 400.000

300.000 162.159

200.000 363.557 111.752 100.000 92.252 102.342 206.607 118.511 123.718 121.225 54.962 96.633 0 759 11.382 21.210 40.806 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (e)

Market share on chinese frozen beef imports (jan-aug) 2017 2018 2019 35,00

30,00

25,00

20,00

15,00

10,00

5,00

0,00 Uruguay New Zealand Others US Beef Imports from Argentina

VALUE U$S TONS 1.800.000 300 1.600.000 250 1.400.000 1.200.000 200 1.000.000 150 800.000 600.000 100 400.000 50 200.000 0 0

Argentina - Eligible Plants Certified to Export to the Plant Export to China Daily Slaughter Capacity (number) Swift Argentina YES 2,200 SAIEP La Anónima YES 650 Quickfood YES 500 Marfrig Argentina YES 700 Frig. Rioplatense YES 1,600 F.R.I.A.R. YES 850 Frig. Gorina YES 1,200 Arre Beef YES 1,300 S.A. Carnes Pampeanas NO 500 Frig. Alberdi NO 350 Logros YES 650 SAIEP Pampa Natural YES 500 Forres Beltrán YES 800 Azul Natural Beef YES 500 Argentine Beef Exports to US • 12 of 14 plants eligible to export fresh beef from Argentina to the US are also exporting to the Chinese market. This facts establishes a price competition to reallocate shipments from China to the American market. • 90CL importing price is around 5,000 dollars / TON CIF, while similar product (90VL) shipped to China is in the range of 5,800 to 6,000 subject to a 12% tariff. • Knuckle avg import price is close to 5,800 at US market but you can get up to 6,800 at the Chinese market. • Summing up, Argentina will have enough supplies to expand beef exports in 2020, but there is a strong demand from China and an expected shortfall in Australian beef exports that will require US import prices to match Chinese market values to make possible a jump in Argentine beef exports to the US. There is room to export high quality cuts and cater for niche markets such as meat from grass fed . Thank You!