Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report

• Positive COVID-19 cases have continued to rise steeply in our county since last week. This means we have reached a point where they will continue to accelerate unless we urgently obey national and local guidance. • The majority of positive cases continue to be caused by ‘community household transmission’ – people mixing indoors and in each others homes.

Data up to 18th October 2020

1 Local COVID-19 Alert Levels

Prime Minister Boris Tier 1: MEDIUM Johnson announced a Follow the rule of six if meeting indoors or outdoors three level COVID-19 alert system on Monday 12 Pubs and restaurants to shut at 10pm October. Help and Tier 2 : HIGH Guidance can be found No household mixing indoors here. Rule of six will apply outdoors Northamptonshire Pubs and restaurants to shut at 10pm remains in Level 1, which Tier 3 : VERY HIGH is at a medium alert level. However, this week’s No household mixing indoors or outdoors in hospitality venues or private gardens data shows we are Rule of six applies in outdoor public spaces like parks approaching a tipping Pubs and bars not serving meals will be closed point to elevate into Level 2, high alert, in Guidance against travelling in and out of the area some Boroughs and Districts.

2 Mums and Dads: Let’s be firm this half term!

STOP! Let’s make this half-term holiday a natural circuit breaker • Just because we are still allowed to mix households – it really doesn’t mean we should. • Did you know that evidence shows spread is within and between households? If we don’t mix, we don’t spread! • Act now Protect you, your children, your parents and friends from the virus and to avoid stricter restrictions and a local lockdown.

This half-term: • Meet to play outside in the park instead of private gardens. • Meet outside in the daytime, do not mix households and certainly no sleepovers!

3 Government Help, Guidance and Fines

• Financial support is now available for eligible individuals who have to self-isolate for up to 14 days. Details of financial support can be found here.

• COVID-19 guidance around the “Rule of Six” includes rules around social distancing, seeing friends and family, going to venues and taking part in activities. Guidance for the rule of six can be found here. Failure to comply may result in a fine.

• Those who do not follow Test and Trace guidance, or those who breach self-isolation, will be fined.

• Failure to engage and follow national guidance will lead to further restrictions being imposed locally. Such restrictions could include limitations on mixing with others who are outside of your household, in homes and gardens, in pubs and restaurants and further restrictions on the opening hours of bars and restaurants.

4 Public Health Measures

• We continue to urge all residents of Northamptonshire to follow additional measures to avoid a local lockdown (see slide 5). • Public Health Northamptonshire, Environmental Health officers, Northamptonshire County Council and the police have, and will, use enforcement powers where there is non compliance in relation to COVID-19 regulations. • All multi team sports gatherings and tournaments across Northamptonshire continue to be paused in line with the national guidance. We continue to thank Northamptonshire residents for supporting us in taking these actions. • Spectators at all sporting events are encouraged to stay at home. • Due to the recent increase in cases locally, and given the age and illness profile of care home residents and hospital patients we are once again recommending providers limit public visiting (other than in extenuating circumstances). • We are telling Northamptonshire residents that all events, celebrations and social gatherings with large groups should follow national guidance. • We are reminding all Northamptonshire residents must wear face coverings while on public transport and in enclosed public spaces. If they must car share we recommend wearing a face covering and have the windows open. • We are asking recruitment agencies to keep workers assigned with one particular organisation to avoid cross contamination.

5 We Ask Northamptonshire Residents To: Act Now If social distancing at 2 metres is not Keep 2 metres from others at all times possible, always use a face covering

Follow the “Rule of Six” Avoid using public transport or car sharing - wear face coverings if you must travel with If you must meet those outside of your others household or support bubble, meet in an outdoor space Wash your hands regularly and thoroughly for 20 seconds each time Do not share items with others outside of your household or bubble Work from home if you are able to

6 All Northamptonshire Residents Must:

In Northamptonshire we are a team of nearly 750,000 Test, Trace and Isolate people – we must work together to protect each other. • COVID-19 symptoms include a high We must follow the Government’s ‘rule of 6’ and the new temperature, a new continuous cough and a guidance regarding social distancing, seeing friends and loss or change to your sense of smell or taste. family, going to venues and activities. Click here for the new • If you have COVID-19 symptoms, however guidance. mild, do not go to work, either work from home or report sick, self-isolate and get a test. We all need to continue to protect ourselves and each other • If you are contacted by test and trace and by following the social distancing guidelines, washing hands asked to self-isolate, stay at home for 14 days. regularly for 20 seconds, wearing a face covering on public • Details of all testing facilities across the county transport / in enclosed spaces and complying with test and are updated daily and can be found here. trace measures. https://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/coronav irus-updates/Pages/coronavirus-testing-in- If you are told you’ve been in close contact with someone northamptonshire.aspx. who has tested positive, you must isolate for 14 days to • Residents seeking a test should book a test in protect others. If you have symptoms, however mild, isolate advance, online, on the NHS Test and Trace app immediately and book a test at nhs.uk/coronavirus. or by calling 119.

7 Total and Weekly Summary A total of 7,118 positive cases have been identified in Northamptonshire to date. Of this number, 785 were identified in the last week, 12th – 18th October 2020.

This graph shows the total number of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire each week since 27th July 2020. There has been an overall increasing trend over the last two months with cases rising significantly in the last three weeks. There were more than twice as many cases in the last week compared to the spike seen in the week of 10th August, which was mostly driven by a large workplace outbreak. Cases have more than quadrupled compared to the week commencing 21st September. While the increasing trend has slowed in the last week, cases are still continuing to rise. The latest week’s figures are likely to increase further as data for the most recent days are subject to reporting delays.

8 Recent Cases by Age and Gender

This graph shows the number of positive test results for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire over the last 28 days by gender and by ten-year age band. Cases in the last 28 days were split fairly evenly between males and females. For both genders, the age group with the most positive tests is the 10 to 19 year olds, followed by 20 to 29 year olds. Both of these age ranges are socially active and may result in higher case rates due to high levels of social interaction. Cases are also increasing in the over 60s which is of particular concern as these age groups tend to be at greater risk of more severe disease. In the last 28 days, more men than women aged 60 and over have tested positive.

9 Total Cases by District and Borough

This table shows the total number of people who Cases in week have tested positive for COVID-19 up to 18th Total cases to Change from Area 12 Oct to 18 October 2020 in each of Northamptonshire’s 18 Oct 2020 previous week Oct 2020 seven districts and boroughs.

Northamptonshire 7,118 785  The county as a whole and all districts and Corby 682 47  boroughs, except for Corby and Daventry, have seen an increase in cases compared to the Daventry 570 58  previous week. Northamptonshire’s total cases East Northamptonshire 765 91  have more than quadrupled compared to the average of the weekly totals seen between 31 Kettering 1047 103  August and 27 September. Northampton 2,750 294  Please note that extreme caution must be applied South Northamptonshire 572 92  when viewing week on week changes. To see the Wellingborough 732 100  overall changes in areas in context please see slides 11 and 12.

10 Rates of Cases by District and Borough

The data in this table shows us what the total Compared to Cumulative rate Rate per Compared to and most recent week’s positive COVID-19 case England rate 9 Area per 100,000 to 100,000 9 Oct county rate 9 Oct numbers for our districts and boroughs would Oct to 15 Oct 15 Oct 2020 to 15 Oct 2020 to 15 Oct 2020 2020 look like if each area had the exact same population size (100,000). Northamptonshire 905 99.2 - Sig lower Corby 910 67.9 Sig lower Sig lower This helps us to compare geographic areas with different sized populations more accurately, and Daventry 633 74.5 Similar Sig lower also helps to compare individual areas with local, East Northamptonshire 778 89.9 Similar Sig lower regional and national averages. Kettering 986 81.6 Similar Sig lower All district and borough infection rates per Northampton 1,182 125.6 Sig higher Sig lower 100,000 population for the most recent week South Northamptonshire 568 105.8 Similar Sig lower are significantly lower than the national average. Wellingborough 862 105.4 Similar Sig lower Overall, Northamptonshire’s rate of cases in the Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk most recent week is significantly lower than the *Please note that the word sig means ‘significant’ is a statistical term which simply means that England average, but this is due to a significant the research is valid. increase in the England rate and therefore must The population figures used to calculate these rates have now been updated to the ONS mid-2019 be viewed in this context. estimates.

11 Rate of Weekly Lab Confirmed Cases

This graph includes all testing data. It shows that Northamptonshire’s rate of cases in the last seven days is below the England average however this is largely due to a recent increase in the national average and therefore must be viewed in this context.

All districts and boroughs have weekly total rates below the England average but have seen rapid increases since the end of September. Northampton currently has the highest weekly rate of cases in the county, followed by South Northamptonshire and Wellingborough.

*These are 7-day rolling total numbers of cases as a rate per 100,000 population – this is done to even out the fluctuations we see in testing volumes on weekdays vs weekends. Please note the rates are now being reported as totals rather than 7-day averages as in previous reports in order to reflect the measures by which local areas are being assessed under the new tier system. The population figures on which these rates are based have also been updated to the ONS mid-2019 estimates. Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk.

12 Education Status

Week up to This table shows a summary of school 20/10/2020 status and attendance in Active outbreaks in schools/colleges (19/10/2020) 9 Northamptonshire for the previous week. It also shows the number of Total cases associated with active outbreaks in 92 reported cases in the previous week at schools/colleges (outbreak start to 19/10/2020) the University of Northampton. University of Northampton reported cases in the 27 previous week The most recent attendance rates are lower than the baseline figures for % schools open – average of the previous week 99% Autumn term 2019.

% pupils attending – average of the previous week 91% A further breakdown of outbreaks and exposures in schools and colleges by Baseline Autumn term attendance data figure for 94% district can be found on slide 17. same period in 2019

13 Cases by Community – Last 28 Days

The chart shows the local communities within Northamptonshire where COVID-19 infections over the last 28 days are highest.

Knowing the areas with the highest case numbers in the last 28 days help us to prioritise and focus our support locally.

* Please note that the thresholds for the colour coding on the map have been updated to fit the higher numbers of cases now being seen. This map cannot be compared against previous reports.

14 Case Rates by Community – Last 28 Days per 100,000 population

These graphics show what positive COVID-19 case numbers over the last 28 days would look like if each local community had the exact same size population (100,000).

The map illustrates the 28-day infection rate per 100,000 population across the whole county.

* Please note that the numbers shown on this page represent the best possible estimate we can make from a wider range of numbers, because there is always a margin of error when calculating cases per 100,000 population – particularly where actual case numbers are small. The population figures used to calculate the rates have now been updated to the ONS mid-2019 estimates.

15 Change in Case Rates by Community – Fortnightly per 100,000 population

If each community had the exact 1. Billing & Riverside (Nton) same size population (100,000) in 2. Abington Vale (Nton) Northamptonshire, this graphic 3. Brickhill (Wboro) shows how COVID-19 case numbers in the last 14 days 4. Little Billing (Nton) would have changed in each 5. Westone (Nton) community compared to the 6. New Duston West (Nton) previous 14 days. 7. Wootton & Collingtree (Nton) 8. Brixworth & Spratton (Dav) The 15 areas with the greatest increases in case rates are listed 9. Town Centre & Semilong (Nton) next to the map. 10. Moulton (Nton) 11. Thorplands & Round Spinney (Nton) Areas with the greatest increases 12. Snatchill (Cor) in rates of infection show us where we need to prioritise and 13. Blisworth, Roade & Yardley Gobion (SN) focus our support locally. 14. Croyland (Wboro) 15. Cogenhoe, Hackleton & Denton (SN)

16 Summary of Outbreaks and Exposures

In the last 28 days Corby Daventry East Northants Kettering Northampton South Northants Wellingborough County total Case total Outbreaks 2 5 4 2 13 3 3 32 187 Care home/service 2 1 2 1 2 8 25 Outbreak Childcare (two or more cases linked Workplace 2 3 2 1 3 1 1 13 63 by place and time to that setting) School/college 2 6 1 9 92 Hospital/hospice 1 1 3 Other 1 1 4 In the last 7 days Clusters 1 3 2 3 2 11 22 Cluster Care home/service 1 3 1 2 1 8 16 (two or more cases Childcare associated with that Workplace setting but not “connected by time and School/college 1 1 1 3 6 place” to that setting) Hospital/hospice Other In the last 7 days Exposures 7 2 7 10 18 9 8 61 62 Exposure Care home/service 1 1 2 3 7 2 3 19 19 (single case where there Childcare 1 1 1 has been (or potentially Workplace 2 2 2 been) exposure to School/college 6 1 5 4 11 7 5 39 40 contacts in that setting) Hospital/hospice Other

Total active situations 104 271 • Please note that this summary covers all situations classified as ‘active’. An active situation has had at least 1 positive case within the previous 28 days. • Although outbreaks have increased this week and are related to a particular setting - it is important to note that the majority of cases are due to community household transmission. • University cases do not yet feature in this summary of outbreaks, clusters and exposures. 17 We Are All In This Together

• To find out more information about local testing sites visit: https://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/coronavirus- updates/Pages/coronavirus-testing-in-northamptonshire.aspx. • Tests can be booked online at nhs.uk/coronavirus or by calling 119. Home testing kits can also be ordered subject to availability. • It is vital that when you leave the house to be tested you must go straight to the testing centre and return home immediately to self- isolate until you get your results. • Advice on how to access a COVID-19 test can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-getting- tested.

18 Ongoing Public Health Actions

• We continue to ask residents to download the new Test and Trace app onto their phones and use the functions to check in to venues, to check any symptoms and follow any notifications. • We continue to work with businesses to ensure they are displaying the QR code for the Test and Trace app, recording details of visitors and guests and following the new guidance. • Northamptonshire has been able to maintain a high level of testing over the last week. We are working to support residents in complying with our “test, trace and isolate” approach to limit further transmission of the virus. • We are tracking all of our outbreak situations daily, based on the intelligence we receive, and we are taking action to manage COVID-19 in our communities. Part of this is communicating with you, the residents of Northamptonshire. • We continue to drill deeper into the data at postcode level to understand the reasons for increased levels of infection. • We are harnessing links with all communities across Northamptonshire with Environmental Health Officers, Health and Safety Officers and local leaders to gather and act on soft intelligence about risk areas, activities, and to ensure businesses and workplaces are COVID-Secure. We are urging all residents and businesses to work closely with their local district and borough councils. You can reach your local environmental health and licensing team or the HSE here. • Due to an increasing number of exposures and outbreaks in workplace settings, we are closely monitoring COVID- Secure compliance with workplaces across the county and we are taking immediate enforcement action where necessary.

19 Ongoing Public Health Actions

• Based on the information we have collated, we are working within specific communities to improve vigilance, raise awareness, encourage testing and reiterate prevention measures. We are asking the public to continue to play their part in the fight against coronavirus by adhering to local guidance to reduce the risk locally. • The Public Health team is continuing to work with our communities and taking prompt proactive action where needed. There are specific recommendations in place limiting sporting and other formal or informal events with large numbers of spectators. • We continue to work with schools and education establishments, supporting with advice, guidance and sharing key messages. • We are communicating with our residents in a timely manner to update them on all activity and information and tailoring our communications according to the groups affected. This includes leaflet drops in affected areas, signage in town centres and entertainment venues and regular social media messages. Examples on slide 20. • We hold a weekly press conference and providing regular media briefings. • We are guided by the Northamptonshire Health Protection Board and the COVID-19 Local Oversight and Engagement Board. The public part of this meeting is live streamed on YouTube. • We are monitoring COVID-19 hospital admissions which are rising and we remain vigilant.

20 Partners Working on the COVID-19 Response PHE – Public Health England An executive agency of the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) which is the expert national public health agency which fulfils the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care’s statutory duty to protect health and address inequalities, and executes his power to promote the health and wellbeing of the nation. We work with the Midlands PHE Office.

Local Public Health Teams Part of Local Authorities (Upper tier and unitary) since 2013, led by Directors of Public Health with a number of specific statutory responsibilities, including health protection and local control of infectious diseases including immunisation and related functions.

Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) The JBC aims to provide evidence-based, independent analysis, assessment and advice to inform local and national decision-making in response to COVID-19 outbreaks. This includes: • helping to inform action on testing, contact tracing and local outbreak management in England • informing an assessment of the risks to UK public health from inbound international travel • advising on the COVID-19 alert level • acting as the main point of liaison between Local Authorities and the Chief Medical Officer and Secretary of State.

Environmental Health Officers Work within District and Borough Local Authorities and are responsible for monitoring and enforcing health and hygiene legislation. They are working closely with Public Health Northamptonshire on COVID-19 workplace outbreaks, with the COVID-19 Schools Cell and Northamptonshire County Council’s Test and Trace service.

21 Please Download the NHS Test & Trace App

• Easy and simple to use • Helps keep you informed of the level of risk in your area and if you have been a contact of a case • Allows you to scan QR codes when you visit premises to remain informed of any risk • Counts down any self-isolation required • Safe and secure – data only used for COVID-19 contact tracing purposes • Must live in England or Wales, be age 16 or over and have a compatible iOS or Android smartphone that has Bluetooth

The Cake Stand Café

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWBJFScQy68&feature=youtu.be