Bar-Ilan University M A R C H 2 0 0 5, No.18

Four IDF Generals Headline a BESA Center Conference on the Challenges of Protracted Conflict

Maj. Gen. Yisrael Ziv, Head of the IDF Operations Branch: "Syria's game of doublespeak will have to end one day soon"

Together with IDF History Department, the BESA Center hosted a November conference on " and Protracted Wars," looking at lessons to be learned from the fedayeen attacks of Israel's early years, the , the struggle in south , and the first (1987-90) and second (2000- 2004) Palestinian uprisings. 1 The conference was headlined by four serving IDF generals: Maj. Gen. Yisrael Ziv, head of the IDF Operations Branch; Maj. Gen. Doron Maj. Gen. Doron Almog, former GOC Southern Almog, former GOC Southern Command; Command (l.) with Prof. Efraim Inbar. Brig. Gen. Yair Golan, commander of IDF Forces in the Galilee (and incoming commander of IDF forces in the West Bank); Maj. Gen. Yisrael Ziv, head of the IDF Operations and Brig. Gen. Meir Kalifi, head of the IDF Branch. Training and Doctrine department. IDF Operations head Gen. Ziv confirmed Also participating were Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Golan's assessment, adding that Iran was Shay, head of the IDF Military History Dept., directly involved in a recent Hizballah attempt Dr. Zeev Drori of Ben-Gurion University, and to fly a pilot-less drone into Israel from Brig. Gen. Yair Golan, Brig. Gen. Meir Kalifi, BESA Center experts Dr. Avi Kober, Dr. Ron Lebanon, and that “Syria's game of doublespeak commander of IDF head of the IDF Schleiffer and Prof. Efraim Inbar. will have to end one day soon.” Forces in the Galilee Training and Doctrine (and incoming com- department. Brig. Gen. Golan warned that the Hizballah Maj. Gen. Almog discussed the success of the mander of IDF forces in posed a real danger to Israel for the long border fence he built around the , the West Bank). term – and not just in Lebanon. At least 30 and its implications for IDF operations. "The percent of the terror attacks in Judea and fence around Gaza has been 100 percent INSIDE: Samaria, he said, are today sourced in the effective in stopping Palestinian cross-border money or operational assistance of Hizballah. infiltrations into Israel, he said. "In response, This organization has thousands of Iranian- the Palestinians adjusted their tactics, and supplied missiles, spread across southern increased their attacks on soldiers and civilians Lebanon, with the ability to hit . within Gaza, while beginning to launch rocket INSIDE: Palestinian Democracy? Page 3 attacks over the fence against civilian targets He described Syria as "less a patron than a in the Negev. As we move to complete the A Three-Way Land Swap? Page 4 partner" to the Hizballah. "One day, we will security fence around Judea and Samaria, this have to deal with the Hizballah," Golan said, dynamic can be expected to repeat itself," Military Ethics Page 6-7 "and it won't be a simple matter." Almog warned. Upcoming Events Page 7

www.besacenter.org NEW Strengthening Strategic Ties PUBLICATIONS with Turkey

Over the past decade, the BESA Center has conducted extensive and continuous strategic dialogues with military and academic experts from Turkey — presaging the trade and military industry relationships that developed from these talks, and foreshadowing the establishment of formal diplomatic and defense ties between Israel and Turkey. Economic Aspects of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict by Dr. Gil Feiler (Hebrew) In February, the BESA Center hosted in Israel (BESA Mideast Security and Policy Studies its sixth annual "U.S.-Israel-Turkey Strategic No. 59) Trialogue," co-sponsored by the Ankara-based Focuses on the Palestinian economy, the PA's Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies (ASAM) (in)ability to disconnect from the Israeli economy, and the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Arab assistance to the PA, and Arab oil power Institute (FPRI). The off-the-record talks in the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict. focused on Iraq, Iran and trilateral relations. A public conference followed on U.S. Mideast The Next Stage in Israel-Palestinian Relations policy, geopolitics in the southeastern (BESA Colloquia on National Security No. 17, Hebrew) Mediterranean, the Iranian threat, fighting This publication summarizes the content of a terrorism, and Turkey's EU accession talks. BESA Center conference in January 2004, Prof. Ersin Kalaycioglu of Isik University (l.) shaking including presentations on Arafat's political legacy In January, the BESA Center and the Israel hands with Mr. David Sultan, former Israeli (B. Rubin), Palestinian civil war (S. David), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosted a conference ambassador to Turkey. At rear: Prof. Amikam financing of Palestinian terror (G. Feiler), European on "Turkey: Whereto?" in memory of the late Nachmani. Mideast policy (K. Becher), and the "two-state" Israeli ambassador to Turkey, David Granit. solution (Y. Alpher, S. Sandler and A. Gilad). Papers given at this conference focused on Turkey's political system (Prof. Ersin Kalaycioglu Rabin and Israel’s National Security By Prof. Efraim Inbar (Hebrew) of Isik University), Turkish Islam (Mr. Abdülhamit 2 Tel Aviv: Israel Ministry of Defense Publishing Bilici of Zaman newspaper), the political House, 2004, 342 pp. economy of Turkey (Dr. Gil Feiler), Turkish ISBN 965-05-1267-5 (see article on page 5) foreign policy (Prof. Barry Rubin of GLORIA), and Turkish-EU relations (Prof. Amikam The Oslo War: A Tale of Self-Deceit Nachmani of BESA). Mr. Ran Curiel, deputy by Prof. Efraim Karsh director general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, Tel Aviv: Maariv Books and the BESA Center, and Mr. Feridun Sinirlioglu, Ambassador of Prof. Ali Çarkoglu of Sabanci University in Istanbul 2004. 296pp. Turkey to Israel, delivered greetings. ISBN 0802117589 (see article on page 3) delivering the annual Madame Madeleine Feher European Scholar-in-Residence Lecture on "Public Ali Çarkoglu, an associate professor at the Opinion and Turkish Foreign Policy." Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at Sabanci NEW! University in Istanbul, delivered the annual Madame Madeleine Feher European Scholar- BESA Perspectives in-Residence Lecture at the BESA Center last An occasional article series distributed by email October, speaking on "Public Opinion and Turkish Foreign Policy." His address focused on political Islam, corruption, Turkish attitudes No. 1, January 7, 2005 towards EU membership and ties to Israel, Abu Mazen's Succession Strategy by Dr. Hillel Frisch and voting behavior in Turkey.

No. 2, January 23, 2005 American-Israeli Relations in Bush's Dr. Michael Radu of FPRI, Gen. (ret.) Ergin Celasin, Second Term former commander of the Turkish Air Force, by Prof. Eytan Gilboa and Dr. Armagan Kuloglu (l. to r.) at the February strategic trialogue. No.3, February 27, 2005 The IDF and the Intifada by Prof. Stuart Cohen

To subscribe free-of-charge to the BESA Perspectives series, please send your first and last name to: [email protected]

Back issues are available on the Internet at Prof. Harvey Sicherman of the Foreign Policy www.besacenter.org Research Institute speaking at the February @ strategic trialogue. Conference Marking Publication of Arafat’s War by Efraim Karsh The Palestinian Authority: From Anarchy to Democracy?

In January, the BESA Center held a conference to analyze the array of forces competing in the Palestinian Authority elections after the death of Yasser Arafat, and to mark publication of the Hebrew edition of Prof. Efraim Karsh's important book Arafat's War Susser's answer: Abu Mazen will not be able to forgo the Palestinian demand for the (Maariv Books and the BESA Center, 2005). "return" of refugees, and thus no long-term, final peace deal is within reach. Israel needs to look for grey areas of agreement with the PA, he said, while waiting for the “younger In his book, Karsh writes that from the generation” of Palestinian leaders – those moment of Arafat’s arrival in Gaza in July 1994, born “inside” – to take the reigns of power. the PLO chieftain set out to build up an extensive terrorist infrastructure in flagrant Dr. Hillel Frisch of the BESA Center discussed violation of the . He systematically Abu-Mazen’s strategy for centralizing power. failed to disarm the terrorist groups He explained that Abu-Mazen was and Islamic Jihad as required by the Oslo concentrating power within , while accords, and tacitly approved the murder of seeking to reach an agreement with Hamas. hundreds of by these groups; created "Muhammad Dahlan will be Abu-Mazen’s a far larger Palestinian army (the so-called enforcer; and Dahlan will be Marwan police force) than was permitted by the Barghouti’s rival for PA leadership in the accords; reconstructed the PLO's old terrorist future," Frisch predicted. apparatus, mainly under the auspices of Tanzim, Fatah’s military arm; and frantically acquired Parliamentary elections pose a real problem prohibited weapons through the use of large for Abu Mazen, Frisch explained. Fatah wants sums of money donated to the Palestinian more time to reorganize and hold internal 3 Authority by the international community for elections before going to a broader vote, while the benefit of the civilian Palestinian population. Hamas is demanding early parliamentary elections. Karsh warned that the Taba talks conducted under the auspices of and Yossi Frisch agreed with Susser that Abu Mazen Prof. Efraim Karsh, author of Arafat's War Beilin on the eve of Israel's 2001 elections would not compromise with Israel on basic put Israel in an even worse position than the issues. "Abu Mazen will not settle for anything infamous Camp David talks of summer 2000. less than what is promised in the Geneva The Palestinian war of terror against Israel "At Taba, the PA was given most of the West talks. His strategy is: Geneva or nothing. Thus, launched in 2000 is "a direct and inevitable Bank, plus land within pre-1967 Israel, and Israel should not be so quick to rush into consequence of the 1993 Oslo accords – the some 'right of return' for refugees!" negotiations," he said. worst blunder in Israel’s history,” according to Prof. Efraim Karsh, who heads Karsh: "Are we Israelis any smarter, any more Prof. Efraim Inbar, director of the BESA Center, the Mediterranean Studies Programme at cautious today? Or will we once again be outlined four possible scenarios for Israeli King’s College London. Of particular concern swayed by visions of peace and by international policymakers with regard to the Israeli- to Karsh is the degree of Israeli self-delusion pressure to 'build-up' Abu Mazen without Palestinian conflict, ranging from the that allowed Arafat to develop his military- really forcing him to dismantle the terrorist encouragement of continued anarchy in the terrorist infrastructure. "With the benefit of groups?" territories to an attempt to "seize the window hindsight, the extent of the Israeli leap of faith of opportunity" and close an interim deal with in Oslo appears nothing short of mind- Prof. Asher Susser of the Dayan Center Abu Mazen. boggling." explained that the import of "PLO outsiders" from Tunis to the West Bank and Gaza under Sharon's strategy, Inbar explained, was to avoid Karsh said that Arafat never intended to bring the Oslo Accords "forced the framework of bringing the PA to a state of complete collapse about the establishment of a Palestinian state negotiations back to 1947 issues, not the 1967 and to pay lip service to the notion of in the West Bank and Gaza. Rather, "he sought issues. Indeed, Arafat was re-fighting the 1947- a Palestinian state while intending to prevent to establish a base from which the Palestinians 48 war until his very end." the establishment of a Palestinian state far would continue to wear Israel down. Indeed, into the future. Inbar himself spoke in favor Arafat was clear to his own people at all times "Where does this leave Abu Mazen?" asked of an arrangement whereby Egypt and about the meaning of Oslo. It was the well- Susser. "Will Abu Mazen rebuild PA institutions would assume greater-than-ever responsibility known 'strategy of stages'. Israelis enraptured as a way of building a Palestinian state, or will for the territories, essentially bringing about with Peres' notions of a 'New Middle East', he push – as did Arafat – for the historic PLO the separation of the West Bank from Gaza however, weren’t willing to listen." revolutionary goals of destroying Israel?" over time.

www.besacenter.org After the U.S. Elections: American Politics and the Middle East

Prof. Eytan Giloba (speaking) with Prof. Efraim Inbar, Prof. Amatzia Baram and Dr. Eran Lerman on the dais at the conference on "American Policy in the Mideast in the Second Bush Administration."

Prof. Eytan Gilboa of the BESA Center said that the Mideast is high priority for the second Economic sanctions are unlikely, he said, Bush Administration. "Bush has to win and because of impact on world oil prices. Defense consultant Joshua Pollack speaking over get out of Iraq, within two years. Iran is also Moreover, Iran would retaliate harshly to any a live teleconference hook-up from Washington, a ticking (nuclear) bomb. Both of these issues military action against it. warning that the U.S. has very few good policy are higher priorities than the Arab-Israeli options for dealing with Iran. conflict," Gilboa posited. Prof. Amatzia Baram Prof. Robert Lieber of Georgetown University of Haifa University predicted marginal "but described the “sea change” in U.S. foreign and sufficient" American success in Iraq, and said defense policy that has emerged post 9/11. Just two days after the November U.S. elections that the administration needs to significantly "U.S. grand strategy has changed," he said. which catapulted George W. Bush to a second advance the pace of economic development "We have to be ready to confront nuclear in Iraq. terrorism. Secondly, the U.S. will not rely on term as U.S. president, the BESA Center international institutions. Not in matters of convened a select group of experts to survey Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman of the American war and peace. There is no global government. Jewish Committee said that "Bush is no longer Therefore, the U.S. must maintain global the scene and consider U.S. policy options fixated on Iraq. He is getting around now to dominance in order to protect international Iran, and will start pressing Iran through order." BESA Center associate Dr. Max Singer in the Mideast. Among the speakers were 4 diplomatic, economic and other inducements." warned that all loci of U.S. policymaking were professors Amatzia Baram, Eytan Gilboa, Robert He warned of severe repercussions to the not in synch with this new thinking. The State global economy from disruptions in the flow Department, he said, was still locked into its Lieber, Joshua Pollack, Barry Rubin and Max of oil should a military attack be launched on traditional, "quiescent" modes of looking at Singer, along with Ambassador Yoav Biran, Iranian nuclear facilities. the world. Dr. Eran Lerman and Mr. Zvi Rafiah. AIPAC In a live teleconference hook-up from Other speakers included Prof. Barry Rubin of Israel Office director Wendy Singer gave a Washington (courtesy of the U.S. Embassy), the GLORIA Center, Mr. Zvi Rafiah, Chair of Washington defense consultant Joshua Pollack the U.S. Forum at the Jaffee Center, and Mr. closed briefing on the newly-elected U.S. warned that the U.S. has very few good policy Yo av Biran, former director-general of the Congress and the congressional agenda. options for dealing with Iran. Israel Foreign Ministry.

Creative Peace Proposals for the Future: How About a Three-Way Land Swap?

In December, the noted geographer Prof. something the Egyptians have long desired. In Gazit welcomed the land-swap principle, but Yehoshua Ben-Arieh presented at the BESA the third leg of Ben-Arieh's proposed land noted that Ben-Arieh's plan does not address Center his proposals for a three-way land swap, the Palestinians would cede to Israel the central Palestinian demand for refugee swap involving Israel, Egypt and the Palestinian territory in Judea and Samaria (presumably “return” to the West Bank. The central political Authority. allowing Israel to maintain settlement blocs problem with the plan, in his view, was Egypt. in the area). "The Egyptians will do nothing to help Israel Ben-Arieh, a former rector of the Hebrew out of its dilemmas," he said. "They'll be University of , suggested that the The BESA Center invited three individuals to responsive, if at all, only to American and Egyptians give the Palestinians territory along comment on Ben-Arieh's proposals: Maj. Gen. European pressure and inducements." the Mediterranean in the Sinai Desert in order (res.) Shlomo Gazit, a former chief of IDF to allow for the economic development of military intelligence; Maj. Gen. (res.) , According to Dayan, the National Security Gaza and help ensure the emergence of a a former IDF deputy chief-of-staff and national Council studied the possibility of land swaps viable Palestinian state. security advisor to the prime minister; and in 2001-02, and rejected the concept. "It's like Mr. Yisrael Harel, former chairman of the asking a member of the family to donate his In exchange, Israel would transfer a piece of Council of Communities in Judea, Samaria and liver or another organ to bring about family territory in the southern Negev to the Gaza. peace," he said. Egyptians and allow the paving of a road continued on page 5 directly connecting Egypt to Jordan –

www.besacenter.org Koschitzky Family Philanthropy Boosts the BESA Center Studying the Strategic Legacy of Saul and Mira Koschitzky of Toronto, Canada have announced a major gift Former Director Efraim Halevy: to the BESA Center, in support of its expanding research and public affairs programs. "I have followed the BESA "The Oslo Accord was as full of Center's work closely for years, and I know that it plays a unique and sig- holes as Swiss cheese, force-fed nificant role in intellectual debate over the direction of Israeli defense and foreign to Rabin by Peres" policy," Saul Koschitzky told the BESA Bulletin. Bar-Ilan U. President Prof. Moshe To mark pulication of the Hebrew edition of Prof. Efraim Inbar’s book Rabin and Israel’s Kaveh and BESA Center Founder and International Advisory Board Chairman National Security (Tel Aviv: Israel Ministry of Defense Publishing House, 2004) the BESA Dr. Thomas O. Hecht welcomed the Center convened an October conference to further study the late prime minister’s strategic noteworthy Koschitzky family endowment. legacy.

Land Swap....continued from page 4

Prof. Yehoshua Ben-Arieh is proposing a three-way land swap involving Israel, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority.

Keynote speaker Mr. Efraim Halevy, former director Dayan wanted to launch an "Israeli road map 5 of the Mossad, and Prof. Efraim Inbar, author of for peace" in response to famous President Rabin and Israel’s National Security and Bush's June 2002 Mideast policy speech, "but BESA Center director. Sharon, Peres, Lieberman and Lapid were all opposed," Dayan recalled.

What should Israel do today? Dayan: "Continue The main speaker at the October conference "On the other hand, the almost blind faith in with unilateral redeployment and the building on Rabin’s strategic legacy was former Mossad the power of the accords to transform the of the security fence. Retain key settlement Director Efraim Halevy, who critiqued the conflict and the willingness to forgive almost blocs and the Jordan Valley. Block any Oslo Accords as "full of holes as Swiss cheese, any Palestinian transgression of the accords advancement of the dangerous Geneva Accord force-fed to Yitzhak Rabin by Shimon Peres." – hallmarks of Shimon Peres's camp -- or any agreement that would allow in "Some top government officials who were increasingly made Rabin uncomfortable. Palestinian refugees." kept in the dark during the secret Oslo talks Because he was murdered, one can only were deeply insulted when the agreement speculate as to how long Rabin would have Yisrael Harel rejected the entire concept of was revealed. I wasn't," said Halevy. "I was glad countenanced PA violence before halting the Israeli land concessions, arguing that a never- not to have been part of this deeply-flawed process." ending dynamic was being created which accord." would demand increasingly greater Israeli The landmark book draws on unpublished withdrawals. "What will happen if and when In contrast, book author Efraim Inbar argued materials and interviews with important Israel withdraws to the 1967 lines?" asked that the Oslo Accords were not sources, including Yitzhak Rabin himself, to Harel. "With 3.5 million people on 5,500 sq. a major conceptual departure on Rabin's part. offer a systemic study of the late prime km. of land, the Palestinians will draw in other "Rabin always had been ready to cautiously minister’s strategic thinking. When first Palestinian 'refugees' from elsewhere in the try new approaches to resolve the Israeli- published in English six years ago (Johns Arab world, and by the year 2020 their number Palestinian dispute, and he sensed that the Hopkins University Press and the Woodrow will reach 9 million. They will then demand Israeli public was weary enough to consider Wilson Center Press, 1999), the book was more land of Israel, and no 'fence' will be able talking to the PLO," Inbar said. awarded a prize of distinction by the Israel to block this demand." Harel's proposal: National Committee for the Commemoration Connect the 96 percent of Palestinians now of Presidents and Prime Ministers. Haaretz living on 42 percent of the land in the West lauded the updated 2004 Hebrew version of Bank with the Kingdom of Jordan. "That is the book as “an illuminating analysis of the their state". road of Rabin from 1948 to his last day."

www.besacenter.org POINT-COUNTER-POINT Should Israel Express Regret When IDF Operations Result in Palestinian Civilian Casualties?

The Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire and the Israeli government decision to withdraw from Gaza, both reached in February, may be turning points in Mideast history. However, the major Palestinian terrorist groups have not been disarmed, and most Mideast analysts believe that Israel will yet have to confront the terrorists militarily. In this context, the BESA Bulletin offers its readers a rare peak inside the BESA Center, where the researchers engage in considerable closed-doors debate on Israeli policy. One such debate, between professors Efraim Inbar and Stuart Cohen about the ethics of Israeli retaliatory policy, spilled onto the pages of , reprinted below. Stop Saying Sorry so successfully for years it seems to prefer So Israel is ill-advised in expressing regret. by Prof. Efraim Inbar the role of victim. Israel's apologies only What it should do is expose blatant Palestinian reinforce such a dysfunctional preference. lies to the press; and in those cases where it In all probability, in view of the way they is clearly established that casualties were the cynically use civilians in the war, the Palestinian collateral damage of justified military activity, militia leaders hardly shed a tear for their Israel should point out systematically that all own casualties. They send children to detonate casualties are the result of Palestinian terrorism. themselves among Israelis and use civilians to The Palestinians do not deserve any apologies shelter their gunmen. Palestinian terrorists – just condemnation for their outrageous disregard all rules of civilized combat by using behavior. schools, hospitals and mosques as sanctuaries and smuggling explosives in Red Crescent These repeated apologies are also Israel's Foreign Ministry and the IDF ambulances, clearly endangering the safety of counterproductive in a strategic sense. Spokesman almost automatically issue their own sick. Expressing sorrow and extending sympathy statements of deep sorrow when a military projects softness, when what is required is an operation results in Palestinian civilian They fully understand that the international image of determination to kill our enemies. casualties. Such apologetic responses are 6 press loves pictures of bleeding mothers and Only such an image can help Israel acquire echoed by Jewish organizations abroad, kids and have no qualms about providing eager a modicum of deterrence against the bestiality magnifying the impression that Israel has done pro-Palestinian journalists with them. on the other side. something wrong. Many of the incidents involving civilian casualties are in fact carefully staged In contrast to Palestinian society, Israel has Such statements are usually viewed as a productions. never demonstrated joy over the death of its hypocritical ritual. Nobody really takes them enemies. While most Israelis probably feel seriously. Moreover, this Pavlovian instinct to The Palestinians excel in the conduct of some empathy for the plight of innocent apologize is counterproductive since it implies psychological warfare – a euphemism for Palestinians, the bitter truth is that the costlier an acceptance of responsibility for those successful lying and false impressions about the violent struggle becomes to the Palestinians, losses. This is the usual message conveyed by the nature of the violent conflict in which the greater the chance of seeing an end to the the international media. they are engaged. They are excellent students terrorist campaign against Israel. of Nazi- and Soviet-style propaganda. Yet the Palestinian losses are clearly not Israel's Accidental Palestinian civilian casualties of War is a competition in inflicting pain, and the moral responsibility. The Palestinians have Israel's self-defense measures add fuel to the Palestinians must bear pain in even greater chosen the path of violence, particularly so widespread psychotic hatred of Jews; yet they dosages than they have become accustomed after September 2000. It is they who are to are the result of a strategic folly partly to. This is the main lesson from Egypt's decision blame for the morally despicable acts of terror orchestrated by the Palestinian leadership. to disengage itself from the military attempts and Israel's countermeasures, harsh as they to destroy Israel. Only when the price of may be. The Palestinians received innumerable It is Yasser Arafat and his lieutenants, together continued conflict became unbearable for the chances for a cease-fire, but failed to implement with the leadership of Hamas and Islamic Egyptian elite following several bloody wars a single one. All political attempts to shift the Jihad, who have not lifted a finger to change did President Anwar Sadat come to Jerusalem. Palestinians from violence to the negotiation the disastrous course taken by Palestinian The calm along the Egyptian-Israeli border is table were unsuccessful. society. It is they who bear the main predicated on a strong Israel and an Egyptian responsibility for the suffering of their evaluation that a military adventure might be We are confronted by a society that is countrymen, while Palestinian society at large too costly. mesmerized by bloody attacks, relishes the bears the rest because it does not rise up sickening sights of Palestinian militias playing against this leadership. Moreover, the Implanting a similar cost-effect appraisal within with the severed limbs of dead Israeli soldiers, Palestinians are to blame for much suffering the Palestinian collective consciousness is the and savors gory images of maimed Israeli in Israel. strategic goal of Israel's military efforts. bodies, victims of a bus explosion. Palestinian casualties of all kinds are therefore the necessary condition for putting an end to Tragically, Palestinian society seems to enjoy Palestinian terrorism. There is no reason to even the sight of its own dead. Rather than apologize for trying to bring about peaceful break away from the psychological mold the coexistence. Palestinian national movement has propagated (May 29) www.besacenter.org Why We Have to Say We're Sorry by Prof. Stuart Cohen UPCOMING EVENTS:EVENTS Democracy and Stability in the Middle East Conference, Sunday, March 20, 2005, 3-7 p.m. (Hebrew) - To mark the publication of The Case for Democracy by Natan Sharansky. With Professors Amatzia Baram, Hillel Frisch and Baruch Zisser, and Ministers Yitzhak Herzog, Binyamin Netanyahu and Natan Sharansky. My colleague, Jerusalem Post columnist and We will get nowhere by simply bemoaning political science professor Efraim Inbar, advises the fact that Israel is the victim of double- Israel Association for both Israelis and Jews abroad to stop issuing standards. Hard-headed realism demands that International Studies statements of regret whenever an IDF military we think more rationally. If the only friends Annual Meeting, at the BESA Center, operation results in civilian Palestinian we have expect us to openly apologize for April 18, 2005 (for members only). casualties. Such apologies, he maintains, send "collateral damage," then that's what we shall the wrong message: "What is required is an do. We don't need the Turkish premier to Challenges of Urban Warfare image of determination to kill our enemies." warn us that the probable costs of not doing Conference, Sunday, May 15, 2005. so far outweigh the very uncertain benefits. That argument is seriously flawed. It is based The second reason why Israelis should on a false reading of the realities of the wider The BESA Center world in which Israel lives. It also entirely continue to feel and express genuine remorse The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University ignores the domestic costs that Israeli society over unintended Palestinian deaths is even seeks to contribute to the advancement of Middle East peace would undoubtedly incur were Inbar's advice more compelling. We need to do so in order and security by conducting policy-relevant research on strategic subjects, particularly as they relate to the national security and to be followed. A less emotionally-charged to remind ourselves that, notwithstanding the foreign policy of Israel. Founded by Thomas O. Hecht, a Canadian 7 Jewish community leader, the Center is a non-partisan and analysis points in an entirely different direction. horrors of the struggle forced upon us, we independent institute dedicated to the memory of the late can and shall retain our commitment to Israeli prime minister and the late Egyptian president Anwar Sadat. Obviously, Israel must continue to employ humanitarian norms of behavior. Founder & Chairman of the International Advisory whatever force is required to uproot the evil Board of Palestinian terrorism and destroy the gang Ethics aside, even at the level of grand strategy Thomas O. Hecht, Ph.D. of criminals who are its perpetrators and – properly understood – this is surely a far International Academic Advisory Board Desmond Ball, Australian National University instigators. At the same time, however, Israel's more salient message than is a brutal posture Eliot A. Cohen, SAIS Johns Hopkins University own interests mandate that even while we designed to signal indifference to the pain of Steven R. David, Johns Hopkins University Yehezkel Dror, Hebrew University punish the guilty, we also feel and express the other side. What is at stake, in the last Lawrence Freedman, King's College Robert J. Lieber, Georgetown University remorse whenever IDF actions harm analysis, is the complexion and quality of the John J. Mearsheimer, University of Chicago Palestinian noncombatants. That conclusion entire fabric of Israeli life. Bruce M. Russett, Yale University is not only mandated by Judaism's heritage of International Advisory Board moral sensitivity; it also reflects two utilitarian As recent reports of the alleged behavior of Prof. Moshe Arens, Mrs. Neri Bloomfield, Madame Madeleine Feher, Gen. Alexander M. Haig, Marion Hecht, Robert Hecht, considerations. individual border police officers indicate, this Hon. Shlomo Hillel, Sir Robert Rhodes James, Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, Mr. Robert K. Lifton, Maj. Gen. (res.) Daniel Matt, war might already have seriously coarsened Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney, Prof. Yuval Neeman, Maj. Gen. (res.) First, there are the contours of Israel's strategic some of our youth. For our own sakes we Ori Orr, Mr. Seymour D. Reich, Amb. Meir Rosenne, Hon. , Lt. Gen. (res.) , Amb. Zalman Shoval, horizon. These cannot be restricted solely to have to take every step possible to stop that Amb. Norman Spector, Dr. Adolphe Steg, Mr. Muzi Wertheim the narrow confines of the Israeli-Palestinian rot. Executive Council battlefield. Only a disastrously narrow-minded Prof. Stuart Cohen, Prof. Moshe Gat, Prof. Elisha Haas Dr. Thomas O. Hecht, Prof. Efraim Inbar, Prof. Moshe Kaveh view of the world can disregard the policies Not to apologize for the unnecessary and Prof. Yuval Wolf, Prof. Adrian Ziderman, Prof. Yossi Yeshurun and interests of Israel's principal strategic unintended deaths of our enemies is to run Center Director partners: the United States, Turkey and India. the risk of a domestic spillover – in which Prof. Efraim Inbar Director of Public Affairs and Bulletin Editor And only a naively obtuse analysis refuses to Israeli society runs the risk of becoming inured David M. Weinberg Program Coordinator recognize that those policies are increasingly to violence against Arabs and Jews within our Hava Waxman Koen swayed by international public outrage over borders. Publications Editor what is widely considered to be Israel's bullying (June 5) Elisheva Brown Executive Secretary insensitivity to Palestinian pain. Alona Briner Rozenman

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"The Israeli mainstream thinks that Arab women "Even with leadership underground and its mid-level "In terms of Israel's options in making a preemptive have remained in the 16th century. This is simply ranks decimated by assassinations, Hamas' secretive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, we have to not right. Arab women in Israel are pioneers of the cells still have the operational capacity to mount ask: What is the reliability of the intelligence picture? Arab world. When you see Arab women as modern, suicide attacks. Right now they are less interested What would be the response of the opponent? What and understand that they want to be a part of the in small attacks – they would like to carry out is the point of no return in terms of nuclear Israeli experience, it could improve prospects for a mega-attack." development, and what would be the international coexistence." -- Dr. Gil Feiler, response?" -- Dr. Mordechai Kedar, Los Angeles Times, June 21, 2004 --Dr. Dany Shoham, Christian Science Monitor, April 14, 2004 Los Angeles Times, October 22, 2004 "Factional fighting within Fatah has so far been "Targeted killing by Israel of Hamas leaders has couched in euphemisms because Arafat remains "After Arafat's demise, Sharon's going to say, 'I'm a threefold aim: to decapitate Hamas, causing it a figure of at least respect if not reverence among waiting for my partner, and there's only one provision to writhe 'like a snake without a head'; to force its most Palestinians. While the factional fighting – dismantle terrorist organizations – and I doubt leaders to spend more time worrying about safety continues, Hamas is waiting in the wings to collect that any Palestinian leader can deliver that." than planning attacks; and to improve the climate the goodies." -- Dr. Hillel Frisch, for recruiting collaborators by sowing dissension in -- Prof. Efraim Inbar, Washington Post, October 30, 2004 the organization." New York Times, July 21, 2004 -- Maj. Gen. Avraham Rotem, "In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the track record Philadelphia Inquirer, April 20, 2004 "The Palestinian experiment has failed miserably. of non-governmental organizations has been abysmal. In more than 75 years, it has failed to create Like the United Nations, today they’re part of the a responsible political leadership, nor will it apparently problem, not the solution. With their multi-million- succeed at this task in the foreseeable future." dollar (and euro) budgets, superpowers such as -- Prof. Efraim Inbar, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, Christian Financial Times, August 18, 2004 Aid, Oxfam, and dozens of smaller allied groups in the region have contributed to incitement to terrorism- "Sharon doesn't like to be blackmailed. If Netanyahu -when they should support reconciliation." and the NRP leave the government, Sharon will have -- Prof. Gerald Steinberg no choice but to go to elections." Wall Street Journal Europe, January 10, 2005 -- Prof. Shmuel Sandler, 8 Research News Washington Post, October 31, 2004

Stuart Cohen has been awarded a three-year Efraim Inbar published “Israeli-Turkish Shmuel Sandler published Bringing Religion grant by the Israel Science Foundation for his Relations – Business as Usual” in Seyfi Tashan into International Relations (with Jonathan Fox, current research into "The Rediscovery of Warfare (ed.) Contemporary Issues in International New York: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2004). He in Contemporary Jewish Law", an innovative Politics (Ankara: Foreign Policy Institute, 2004); continues to edit the Jewish Political Studies study of the ways in which contemporary rabbis and “Israel-Turqois” in Outre-Terre: Revue Review and recently published a special issue on in Israel are confronting the challenges posed Francaise de Geopolitique (No. 8, 2005). "Global Anti-Semitism" (16/3-4, Fall 2004). by Israel's military experience. He published "Dilemmas of Military Service in Israel: The Religious Dimension" in The Torah U-Maddah Avi Kober published “From Blitzkrieg to Attrition: Dany Shoham published "Libya: The First Real Journal (Vol. 12, 2004, published by Yeshiva U.). Israel’s Attrition Strategy and Staying Power” in Case of De-Proliferation in the Middle East" in Small Wars and Insurgencies (16/2, 2005). He Disarmament Diplomacy (May-June 2004); "The Jonathan Fox published Bringing Religion into received the Tshetshik Prize for Strategic Studies Russian Biological Weapons Program: Vanished International Relations (with Shmuel Sandler, on Israel’s Security for his book Coalition or Disappeared? in Critical Reviews in New York: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2004); Religion, Defection: The Dissolution of Arab Anti-Israel Microbiology (30/4, 2004); "Image versus Reality Civilization and Civil War: 1945 Through the Coalitions in War and Peace (Westport, CT: of Iranian Chemical and Biological Weapons" in New Millennium (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, Praeger, 2002). International Journal of Intelligence and 2004); “The Rise of Religious Nationalism and Counterintelligence (18/1, 2005); "The Chemical Conflict: Ethnic Conflict and Revolutionary Wars and Biological Threat to Israel", a chapter in The from 1945 to 2001" in The Journal of Peace Jonathan Rynhold published "Israel’s Fence: Threat of Ballistic Missiles in the Middle East Research (41:6, 2004); “Are Some Religions More Can Separation Make Better Neighbours?" in (ed., Arieh Stav, Sussex Press, Britain and ACPR, Conflict Prone than Others?” in The Jewish Survival (46/1, Spring 2004); "Envisaging a Peace 2004). Political Studies Review (16:1-2, 2004), and Referendum in Israel: Lessons from Northern “Correlated Conflicts: The Independent Nature Ireland" in Civil Wars (6/2, 2003 with Asher Gerald Steinberg published "Evaluating of Ethnic Strife” in Harvard International Review Cohen); "Deconstructing Unilateral International Approaches to Security and Aid (25:4, Winter, 2004). Disengagement: Identity & Security in Israel" in Following Disengagement in Gaza" (with William Israel Studies Forum (19/3, 2004); and "Cultural Berger, JCPA December 2004); “The Centrality Eytan Gilboa published “The Media in the 2003 Shift and Foreign Policy Change: Israel and the of Confidence Building Measures: Lessons from Israeli Elections” in Israel Affairs (Vol. 10, Making of the Oslo Accords" in Review of the Middle East”, in Conflict Resolution: Rhetoric Summer 2004); and “The CNN Effect: The Search International Affairs (December 2004). and Reality, Carment and Schnabel eds. (NY: for a Communication Theory of International Lexington Books, 2004); “Europe’s Failed Middle Relations” in Political Communication (22/1, East Policies” in Security Dialogue (35:3, 2005). He lectured on “Media-Broker Diplomacy: September 2004). Journalists Turning International Mediators” at the International Communication Association meeting in New Orleans, and at American University in Washington.

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