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NBC News/Marist Poll of 2,882 Texas Adults

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NBC News/Marist Poll of 2,882 Texas Adults How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC News/Marist Poll of 2,882 Texas Adults This survey of 2,882 adults was conducted February 23rd through February 27th, 2020 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NBC News. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed by telephone using live interviewers. Survey questions were available in English or Spanish. Mobile telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state from Dynata. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Mobile phones are treated as individual devices. After validation of age, personal ownership, and non-business-use of the mobile phone, interviews are typically conducted with the person answering the phone. To increase coverage, this mobile sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of landline phone numbers. Within each landline household, a single respondent is selected through a random selection process to increase the representativeness of traditionally under-covered survey populations. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2017 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±2.2 percentage points. There are 2,409 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±2.5 percentage points. There are 1,050 voters in the potential Democratic primary electorate. The potential Democratic primary electorate in Texas includes all voters who prefer to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and those who identify as Democrats or Democratic leaning independents without a primary preference. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. There are 1,118 voters in the potential Republican primary electorate. The potential Republican primary electorate in Texas includes all voters who prefer to vote in the Republican presidential primary and those who identify as Republicans or Republican leaning independents without a primary preference. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.6 percentage points. There are 556 likely Democratic primary voters and 621 likely Republican primary voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2020 Texas Presidential Primaries based upon their chance of vote, interest in the primary election, and past primary participation. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±5.3 percentage points and ±5.1 percentage points, respectively. Tables include results for subgroups with a minimum sample size of 100 unweighted completed interviews as to only display crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does not mean interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too small to report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations. Texas Nature of the Sample TX Potential TX Potential TX Likely TX Likely TX Registered Democratic Republican Democratic Republican TX Adults Voters Electorate Electorate Primary Voters Primary Voters Column % Column % Column % Column % Column % Column % TX Adults 100% TX Registered Voters 84% 100% TX Potential Democratic Electorate 36% 44% 100% TX Potential Republican Electorate 39% 46% 100% TX Likely Democratic Primary Voters 19% 23% 53% n/a 100% n/a TX Likely Republican Primary Voters 22% 26% n/a 56% n/a 100% Party Identification Democrat n/a 28% 63% <1% 69% 1% Republican n/a 37% 2% 77% 1% 81% Independent n/a 33% 35% 21% 30% 17% Other n/a 1% <1% 2% <1% 2% Democrats and Democratic leaning independents Progressive n/a n/a 45% n/a 47% n/a Moderate n/a n/a 49% n/a 47% n/a Just Democrat/Democratic leaning independent n/a n/a 6% n/a 6% n/a Party Identification Strong Democrats n/a 20% 44% <1% 52% 1% Soft Democrats n/a 21% 46% <1% 41% <1% Just Independents n/a 10% 5% 2% 4% 2% Soft Republicans n/a 19% 3% 37% 2% 30% Strong Republicans n/a 28% 1% 59% 1% 66% Other n/a 1% <1% 2% <1% 2% Party ID and Gender Democrat men n/a 10% 23% <1% 24% <1% Democrat women n/a 18% 40% <1% 45% 1% Republican men n/a 20% 1% 41% 1% 41% Republican women n/a 17% <1% 36% <1% 40% Independent men n/a 18% 18% 13% 15% 11% Independent women n/a 15% 17% 8% 15% 6% Other party men and women n/a 1% 0% 2% <1% 2% Gender Men 49% 49% 42% 55% 40% 53% Women 51% 51% 58% 45% 60% 47% Age Under 45 52% 46% 53% 38% 47% 33% 45 or older 48% 54% 47% 62% 53% 67% Age 18 to 29 23% 19% 24% 13% 19% 10% 30 to 44 28% 27% 28% 25% 28% 23% 45 to 59 25% 28% 25% 30% 27% 32% 60 or older 23% 26% 22% 32% 26% 35% Generation Gen Z/Millennials (18-38) 41% 36% 43% 27% 37% 22% Gen X (39-54) 26% 27% 24% 28% 24% 29% Baby Boomers (55-73) 23% 25% 24% 29% 27% 32% Silent-Greatest (Over 73) 11% 12% 9% 15% 11% 17% Race/Ethnicity White 44% 47% 34% 63% 36% 65% African American 11% 12% 21% 3% 21% 2% Latino 33% 29% 34% 23% 33% 22% Other 11% 12% 11% 11% 10% 11% Region East 13% 13% 9% 17% 11% 17% Dallas/Ft. Worth Area 23% 24% 26% 23% 21% 22% Houston Area 21% 21% 23% 18% 20% 18% South Central 14% 14% 16% 12% 20% 13% West 11% 11% 7% 15% 5% 15% Latino Southwest 18% 18% 20% 14% 22% 15% Household Income Less than $50,000 45% 40% 42% 36% 41% 34% $50,000 or more 55% 60% 58% 64% 59% 66% Education Not college graduate 64% 60% 56% 61% 53% 61% College graduate 36% 40% 44% 39% 47% 39% Education by Race White - Not College Graduate 26% 27% 16% 37% 17% 39% White - College Graduate 18% 21% 18% 26% 19% 26% Non-White - Not College Graduate 39% 34% 40% 25% 36% 23% Non-White - College Graduate 17% 18% 26% 13% 27% 13% Education - Race - Gender Men - White - Not College Graduate 12% 13% 7% 17% 8% 18% Men - White - College Graduate 9% 10% 8% 14% 9% 13% Men - Non-White - Not College Graduate 20% 18% 18% 16% 15% 15% Men - Non-White - College Graduate 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 7% Women - White - Not College Graduate 13% 14% 9% 19% 10% 21% Women - White - College Graduate 9% 10% 9% 12% 10% 12% Women - Non-White - Not College Graduate 19% 17% 22% 8% 21% 8% Women - Non-White - College Graduate 10% 10% 17% 5% 19% 6% Evangelical Christian Yes 42% 43% 30% 57% 30% 59% No 58% 57% 70% 43% 70% 41% Area Description Big city 42% 41% 48% 34% 47% 34% Small city 14% 13% 12% 14% 13% 13% Suburban 21% 22% 25% 21% 25% 21% Small town 15% 15% 10% 19% 9% 19% Rural 9% 9% 6% 12% 6% 14% Area Description - Gender Small city/Suburban Men 17% 17% 15% 19% 15% 18% Other area Men 32% 31% 28% 35% 26% 35% Small city/Suburban Women 18% 18% 22% 16% 23% 15% Other area Women 33% 33% 35% 30% 37% 32% Interview Type Landline 32% 35% 35% 36% 38% 38% Cell Phone 68% 65% 65% 64% 62% 62% NBC News/Marist Poll Texas Adults. Interviews conducted February 23rd through February 27th, 2020, n=2882 MOE +/- 2.2 percentage points. Texas Registered Voters: n=2409 MOE +/- 2.5 percentage points. Texas Potential Democratic Electorate: n=1050 MOE +/- 3.7 percentage points. Texas Potential Republican Electorate: n=1118 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Texas Likely Democratic Primary Voters: n=556 MOE +/- 5.3 percentage points. Texas Likely Republican Primary Voters n=621 MOE +/- 5.1 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. NBC News/Marist Poll Texas Likely Voters Democratic Primary DPWLNABS1. NBC News/Marist Poll Texas Tables February 23rd through February 27th, 2020 TX Likely Democratic Primary Voters If the Democratic presidential primary in Texas were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:] [If already voted: Whom did you support in the Democratic presidential primary?] Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Michael Bloomberg Elizabeth Warren Pete Buttigieg Amy Klobuchar Tom Steyer Tulsi Gabbard Other Undecided Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % TX Likely Democratic Primary Voters 34% 19% 15% 10% 8% 3% 1% 1% <1% 9% Already Voted 33% 25% 16% 13% 8% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% Not Yet Voted 35% 16% 14% 10% 8% 3% 2% 1% 0% 11% Intensity of Support Strongly support 44% 17% 15% 13% 7% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% Somewhat support 35% 24% 18% 8% 8% 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% Might vote differently 18% 21% 22% 10% 19% 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% Most Important in Democratic Closest on issues 43% 13% 13% 10% 6% 2% 2% 1% 0% 9% Nominee Best chance to defeat Trump 25% 24% 17% 10% 11% 5% 1% 0% 0% 6% Party Identification Democrat 29% 22% 16% 12% 7% 3% 1% 0% 0% 10% Independent 47% 12% 11% 7% 11% 4% 2% 1% 0% 5% Democrats and Democratic leaning Progressive 46% 14% 11% 13% 7% 2% 2% 0% 0% 6% independents Moderate 22% 26% 18% 9% 9% 4% 1% 1% 0% 10% Party Identification^ Strong Democrats 27% 24% 17% 12% 6% 3% 1% 0% 0% 10% Soft Democrats 42% 13% 12% 9% 9% 4% 2% 1% 0% 8% Party ID and Gender Democrat men 36% 22% 17% 6% 8% 2% 2% 0% 0% 6% Democrat women 25% 22% 16% 14% 6% 3% 1% 0% 0% 12% Independent men 56% 8% 10% 6% 12% 5% 0% 1% 0% 2% Independent women 37% 17% 11% 8% 10% 3% 4% 0% 0% 8% Region East * * * * * * * * * * Dallas/Ft.
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