EurAsian Journal of BioSciences Eurasia J Biosci 13, 1275-1289 (2019)

Water resources and system of the River Yesil (ISHIM) under conditions of active anthropogenous transformation and climate change

Farida Zh. Akiyanova 1*, Nataliya L. Frolova 2, Aiman A. Avezova 1, Altynay M. Shaimerdenova 1, Anton B. Oleshko 1 1 International Science Complex “Astana”, Kabanbay Batyr 8, Nur-Sultan, 010000, 2 The Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory 1, Moscow, 119234, *Corresponding author: [email protected]

Abstract This paper considers the features of the formation of the water resources and the system of the transboundary River Yesil/Ishim (the left tributary of the River ), the sources and the formation zone of most of the flow of which are located in Kazakhstan, the transit zone and the inflow into the Irtysh river in Russia. Initial hydrological information was taken from published data for the years 1932-2017; and for the period 2008-2017 monitoring data gathered from gauging stations controlled by the RSE Kazgidromet of the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan. Research confirms a pronounced irregularity in the flow of the Yesil River over the long-term, with sequences of high and low-water years. In terms of the volume of annual flow, the difference between these years can be as much as 200% to 300%. There is an uneven distribution of the runoff from the River Yesil during the year, during which the river system is characterized by a pronounced short flood and a very low low-water level. The entire river is characterized by the almost simultaneous onset of flood; but from the data gathered downstream there is a temporary shift in the peak of the flood and a slight increase in its duration. At the same time, the analysis shows that over the past twenty-five years there has been a tendency for the flood to shift to earlier dates; a decrease in its duration; and an increase in runoff. In addition to the influence of climatic factors on the runoff and system of the River Yesil, qualitative and quantitative changes in the hydrological characteristics are shown, taking into account the regulatory activity of large reservoirs. In general, an increase in the use of surface-water resources and unproductive losses exacerbate the situation with their lack in low-water years, with the greatest shortage of water resources in the upper part of the Yesil’s basin.

Keywords: transboundary river, river flow, flow system, flow regulation, River Yesil (Ishim), Kazakhstan, Russia

Akiyanova FZh, Frolova NL, Avezova AA, Shaimerdenova AM, Oleshko AB (2019) Water resources and system of the River Yesil (ISHIM) under conditions of active anthropogenous transformation and climate change. Eurasia J Biosci 13: 1275-1289.

© 2019 Akiyanova et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.

3 / year. They constitute 1.86% of the total water INTRODUCTION 1.7 km resources of Kazakhstan, 50% of provision and 3.6% of Kazakhstan has limited water resources that are the river flow originating within Kazakhstan (Abishev et unevenly distributed throughout the territory and are al. 2016, Kazakhstan UNDP 2004, Yunussova and characterized by significant intra-annual and long-term Mosiej 2016). fluctuations in the flow. These features significantly Sharing of the water resources of the River complicate the management of the country’s water Yesil/Ishim is carried out in accordance with the Joint 3 resources, averaging 91.3 km / year over the Activity Agreement, signed between the Department of observation period 1974-2008. Environmental Protection of the Administration of the Of the eight water basins within Kazakhstan, seven Tyumen Region (Russia) and the North-Kazakhstan are transboundary, with 48.5% of the resources of the branch of the RSE Kazvodhoz (Kazakhstan) (General river flow coming from neighboring countries. One of the scheme of integrated use …2016). transboundary basins is the Yesil (Ishim) river basin, the area of which in Kazakhstan is 237.2 thousand km². The Received: April 2019 article discusses the results of studies of the River Yesil, Accepted: September 2019 the average long-term resources of which are not above Printed: September 2019

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Administratively, 51.5% of the basin of the River contribution of anthropogenic and climatic factors to the Yesil is located in the Akmola region; 41.3% in the North formation and change of runoff was carried out using Kazakhstan region; and 7.2% in the Karaganda and analytical methods. Kostanay regions (General scheme of integrated use … The calculation of monthly average, annual average 2016). The surface runoff of the river is used for water and maximum annual values of water flow was carried supply in more than 600 rural settlements within the out in the light of a large number of hydrometric Akmola and North Kazakhstan administrative areas and observations over a long time period as according to SP eight cities (including the cities of Nur-Sultan and 33-101 (Recommendations for the calculation … 2017). Petropavlovsk), the population of the above totalling For the entire period, the calculations used annual over 2.3 million people. In part, the runoff of the River maximum (instantaneous) water consumption based on Yesil is used for the irrigation of agricultural lands and stationary observations at the following gauging gardens. stations: Turgen (1975-2017), Volgodonovka (1978- A number of factors complicate the utilization of the 2017), Astana (1933-2017), Sergeevka (1968-2016), resources of the River Yesil. These are both natural (the Kamennyi karier (1947 - 2016) and Petropavlovsk formation of runoff in the zone of insufficient rainfall; fast- (1932-2016). growing spring floods; a long period of low water; and The reduction of the characteristics of runoff over this the prevalence of flat terrain), and anthropogenic, period and the filling-in of gaps in the observations were associated with overregulation of runoff and a high performed using pair correlation between the average degree of anthropogenic transformation of the riverbed annual water consumption, average monthly water and floodplain in the upper flow. The purpose of this consumption and annual maximum water consumption study is to study the intra-annual and multi-year flow by the analogy method, based on conventional statistical system of the transboundary River Yesil in terms of methods (Chigrinets 2009, Davletgaliev 1998, climate change and active water usage. Hosseinzadeh et al. 2019, Magritsky 2014, Moon et al. 2018). The process of restoring gaps in the observations MATERIALS AND METHODS was complicated by the regulated flow system of the The work was based on data from published River Yesil. In this connection, the calculated sources, including ‘Surface-Water Resources in dependences were constructed separately for the Development Areas of Undeveloped and Fallow Land in periods before and after the creation of the Sergeevsky the Akmola and North Kazakhstan Regions’ (Resources and Astana reservoirs. of surface waters … 1958, Surface water resources in Evaluation of the homogeneity of the series of river areas … 1960), contained within a multi-volume flow was carried out on the basis of genetic and publication by the Institute of Geography of the Ministry statistical analyses. Genetic analysis consists of of Education of Republic of Kazakhstan: Water studying the structure of perennial runoff fluctuations Resources of Kazakhstan: Assessment, Forecast, and identifying the causes that determine the Management (Davledgaliyev et al. 2012, Dehkordi et al. heterogeneity of hydrological observations. An analysis 2018). of the chronological graphs of the main characteristics of Use was also made of the following information: the flow of the River Yesil for 1932–2017 and an analysis monitoring data gathered by the Kazgydromet national of the intra-annual distribution of the flow for 1991-2016 hydrometeorological service of the Ministry of Energy of were carried out (Andreyanov 1960, Davletgaliev 1992, the Republic of Kazakhstan; expenditure, levels and Rahman and Vaheed 2018). Based on genetic analysis, water quality for 2010-2017; information about changes in the mean values of the River Yesil flow and resources, volumes and the system of water use of the the variability of the runoff over time were determined. integrated water-use scheme deriving from the Yesil A statistical analysis of the homogeneity of the Basin Inspection (General scheme of integrated use … following parameters of the hydrological characteristics 2016); the annual reports of the CWR of the Ministry of of the River Yesil flow was carried out: mean value, Agriculture of Republic of Kazakhstan covering the variance and variation coefficients. The condition for water resources of the River Yesil basin, their quality and obtaining representative calculation data, including use (Demiral et al. 2018, Surface and groundwater maximum water flow, was the length of a series of resources … 2018); and meteorological monitoring data hydrometric observations (at least 15-30 years) and the from available sources for the period 2011–2017 relative standard quadratic error in determining the (Weather and Climate n.d.). estimated water flow, which should not exceed 20% of To study the water system of the River Yesil, an its value (Chigrinets 2009, Davletgaliev 1998, Hosseini integrated geographical approach was used, which Naghaviet al. 2019). includes descriptive, cartographic and statistical In order to determine the anthropogenic pressure on methods with an analysis of the series both from an water resources, a water stress indicator was used in the intra-annual and long-term viewpoint. The study of the studies, which provides a generalized assessment of water-resource deficit. Water stress is determined by the

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Fig. 1. Basin of the Yesil (Ishim) River ratio of the amount of water abstraction from surface water availability and allows one to judge in general the sources to available renewable water resources, in state of water resources in terms of how they are particular, to the average long-term value of river flow. If naturally formed (Shiklomanova 2008). the indicator is less than 10%, then water stress is not present; 10 to 20% indicates a small amount of water RESULTS AND DISCUSSION shortage; 20–40% is moderate; and an excess of 40% General characteristics of the River Yesil. The River means a high level of water shortage (Shiklomanova Yesil (named the Ishim where it flows through Russia) is 2008, Hosseinzadeh et al. 2019). the only major transboundary river the sources and the To study the shortage of water resources, the formation of which are located within Kazakhstan. The indicator of the specific water supply of the population river flows through the areas of the Karaganda, Akmola was also used, which is calculated using the ratio of the and North Kazakhstan regions of Kazakhstan, as well as total flow to the population. This approach is used to the Tyumen and regions of Russia (Fig. 1). compare different regions and subjects by the extent of

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Fig. 2. Linear scheme of the River Yesil (Ishim) with main tributaries and locations of gauging stations

The Yesil originates on the northern slope of the varies from 20 to 40 mm per year (Bultekov et al. 2010, Kazakh Hills in the Niyaz mountains, at absolute Gvozdetsky 1973). The severe aridity of the climate in elevations of 561 m (Davledgaliyev et al. 2012). It flows the southern part of the Yesil basin limits the into the Irtysh river and and at that point is part of the development of a dense river network. Significant water Kara Sea basin. The total area of the Yesil basin is 177 in the northern part of the basin, along with the thousand km2 (of which 36 thousand km2 is non-draining peculiarities of the flat terrain, contributes to the depressions). The area within Kazakhstan is 142 widespread development of lakes here. thousand km2 (of which 29 thousand km2 is non-draining The greatest density of the river network is within depressions) (Alimkulov et al. 2010, Davledgaliyev et al. elevations with dissected relief and where there is most 2012). water. The main tributaries of the Yesil River (the The length of Yesil puts it among the category of Kalkutan, the Zhabay, the Terisakkan, the Akkan-burlyk large rivers. The total length of the river is 2450 km, and the Iman-burlyk) flow into the territory of Kazakhstan including 72 km within the ; 1027 km in the middle course. within the Akmola region; and 690 km within the North- Where the river reaches the plain, the number of Kazakhstan region (General scheme of integrated use tributaries sharply decreases. There are a number of off- … 2016). An area within Russia accounts for about 27% site sites on the Yesil that are transit areas for runoff, the of the length of the river and 20% of its basin, within most significant of them (250-300 km long) being located which about 30% of the Ishim channel flow is formed in the headwaters of the river. (Frolova and Ivanovskaya 2015). The flow of the Yesil is regulated. There are 45 The fall of the river from its source to the border of reservoirs in the basin, three of which are multi-purpose Kazakhstan with Russia is 476 m; and the average with a volume of more than 100 million m3; six with a surface slope is 0.34%. In general, from the source to volume of more than 10 million m3; and 36 single- the confluence of the River Irtysh (in Russia) the fall of purpose reservoirs with a capacity of from 1 to 10 million the river is 513 m and the slope is 0.21%. At the same m3. Basic information about the existing large reservoirs time, the fall of the river in its latitudinal segment is 325 which have long-term and seasonal regulatory functions m, with an average surface slope of 0.617%; and on the is given in Table 1. meridional segment the fall of the river is 197 m, with a The Yesil has biological resources that are used for slope of 0.102%. recreational purposes and is navigable in the lower The catchment area of the Yesil is located in a reaches. It serves as a backbone along which natural- continental arid climate zone. The average temperature economic systems have formed. Along the River Yesil, of the coldest month, January, varies from -15ºС to - within the floodplain terraces and watersheds, there are 19ºС; and that of the hottest month, July, from + 18ºС to large cities, towns and rural settlements. The runoff of + 21ºС. Relative air humidity is at its maximum in winter the Yesil exists over a considerable length and area of (75%-85%) and minimum in summer (30%-50%). The the territory, including steppe and forest-steppe zones; amount of precipitation in the area under consideration island lowlands; and low hills and plains, all of which varies from 250 mm per year in the southern part of the determine the basic conditions of its formation. Yesil basin to 450 mm per year in the north. About 25%- The pattern of feed for the Yesil and its main 30% of the annual precipitation falls during the cold tributaries is due both to climatic (amount and seasonal period. The average depth of snow cover in the basin distribution of precipitation, temperature and humidity)

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Table 1. Information on large reservoirs in the Yesil Basin ( Davledgaliyev et al. 2012) Commission Capacity on the project, mln.m3 Mirror area, km2 Water level, m Type of Name ing year full useful FRL DSL FRL DSL regulation Sergeevsky 1969 693 635 116.7 19.2 138 128 Perennial Astana (Vyacheslavsky) 1971 410.9 345.4 60.9 9.94 403 391 Perennial Ishimskoe 1958 9.2 8.2 2.3 - Seasonal

Petropavlovsk 1973 19.2 16.1 9.7 3.7 Seasonal

Fig. 3. Dynamics of the volume of the annual flow of the Yesil River at the gauging station Sergeevka (1) and its long-term average value (2), difference in integral curve of annual runoff (3)

Table 2. Characteristics of the annual runoff of the River Yesil (Frolova and Ivanovskaya 2015, General scheme of integrated use … 2016, Surface water resources in areas of virgin … 1960) Lот Fof Estimated annual Name of gauging station, Parameters of annual flow mouth, act.,thousa runoff of different security, Р % alignment km nd km. Flow rate Cv Cs 25 50 75 95 3 Qo, м /с 5.89 Astana reservoir 3 0.66 1.25 Wo, км 0.186 0.161 0.095 0.035 3 Qo, м /с 55.1 Sergeevsky reservoir 1080 101 3 0.75 1.5 Wo, км 1.74 1.468 0.780 0.180 3 Qo, м /с 66.9 Petropavlovsk city 877 106 3 0.71 1.06 Wo, км 2.11 1.846 1.01 0.196 3 Dolmatovo village (on the border Qo, м /с 70.7 99.1 59.9 30.8 8.0 667 111 3 0.73 1.10 of Kazakhstan and Russia) Wo, км 2.23 3.13 1.89 0.97 0.25 3 Orekhovo village (at the mouth of Qo, м /с 102 131 87.5 56.8 31.1 the Ishim river and at the 1014 138 0.61 1.46 3 Wo, км 3.22 4.13 2.76 1.79 0.98

confluence of the Irtysh river) and other natural factors (topography, lithology of rocks, value, and in wet years it is 2.5–3 times higher than soil and vegetation). average values (Frolova and Ivanovskaya 2015). Features of the distribution of the flow of the River In addition, the average annual volume of the natural Yesil. The Yesil is characterized by uneven runoff in its flow of the Yesil increases from its source at all points longest section. A feature is the grouping of high-water from 0.12 km3 per year (s. Turgen gauging station) to and low-water years, which was determined in relation 2.11 km3 per year (Petropavlovsk gauging station), 2.23 to the average long-term value of the flow volume for the km3 per year (Dolmatovo village gauging station) and period 1926-2016, equal to 1651 million m3 (Fig. 3). 3.22 km3 per year (Orekhovo village gauging station) Low-water years are: 1930-1940, 1950-1953, 1955- (Annual data on the regime … 2018, Frolova and 1958, 1967-1969, 1973- 1978, 1997-2000 and 2007- Ivanovskaya 2015). At the same time, the highest values 2012. High-water years are: 1941 - 1942, 1946 - 1949, of the coefficient of variation are typically associated with 1970 - 1972, 1984-1986 , 1993-1994 and 2014-2016. At the middle course of the Yesil, where they are 0.7-0.75 the same time, high-water periods do not compensate (Table 2). for low-flow waters in terms of flow (General scheme of Another feature of the Yesil system is the uneven integrated use … 2016). In dry years, runoff is less than distribution of the flow during the year, which is 6–10 times less than the average multi-year runoff associated with the exceptional importance to the river- feed of snow meltwater. The hydrological system of the

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a b Fig. 4. Estimated intra-annual distribution of runoff within the water year of the River Yesil by gauging stations v. Turgen (a) and Petropavlovsk (b) river is characterized by a pronounced short flood and recorded by the v. Turgen gauging station (conditionally very low low water. According to Zaikov’s classification natural runoff) and the Petropavlovsk gauging station, (1954), the river belongs to the “Kazakhstani type” of for the years 1991-2016. The analysis indicates that the water system. The main source is snow (82.5-85%) - general trends of the average monthly water discharge ground and rain feed are of little importance (Alimkulov persist, with the exception of dry years (P = 75%) in the et al. 2010). The spring flood begins in April and lasts lower reaches of the Yesil River (Fig. 4). one and a half to two months. The characteristic dates These results reflect the influence of conditionally- of the beginning of the spring flood are the second half natural dynamics of intra-annual discharges in low-water of March (early flood) to the third week in April (later years and show the role of flow regulation by reservoirs flood). in average water and high-water years. In the Akmola region, the spring flood, on average, Assessment of the impact of climate change on begins around the 5th to the 10th of April, ending mostly the flow of the Yesil. An assessment of the influence of in May. The length of the flood in the upper and middle climatic characteristics on the flow of the River Yesil was reaches of the river is 1-1.5 months and increases carried out for the upper and middle reaches of the Yesil downstream to 2-3 months. The form of the flood’s River within the Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions hydrograph is mostly single-top. At the end of May to the over the past 75 and 25 years. For the Akmola and North beginning of June there is low flow, lasting for 9-10 Kazakhstan regions for the period 1941-2017, there was months. In some parts of the upper reaches of the river, a trend of increasing anomalies of average annual low flow sometimes leads to a complete drying-up of the temperatures of the surface air layer and average river. In summer, minimum water consumption is seen annual precipitation amounts (Fig. 5). Anomalies are in July-August and in winter from January to March. The calculated relative to the base period for 1981-2010. A smallest of the minimum costs are in winter low water. smoothed curve was obtained by 11-year moving Analysis was carried out of of spatio-temporal averaging (Annual bulletin of monitoring the state … changes in the average monthly values of the flow of 2018). water from the headwaters of the Yesil river from the The analysis shows that in the basin of the Yesil the mouth to the mouth, using data from gauging stations greatest temperature anomalies are observed in the from v. Turgen to v. Dolmatovo (Kazakhstan); and from spring period and amount to 0.37ºС / 10 years (Table 3). v. Ilyinka to v. Orekhovo (Russia) for 2016. There is also a trend of anomalies of increase in annual Analysis showed the simultaneous start of the onset precipitation amounts by 3.9 mm / 10 years, while the of flood along the entire length of the river, as well as an main contribution is made by precipitation of the winter increase in water flow as the main tributaries flow into and spring periods of the year (Table 4) (Mustafaev et the river; a shift in the peak of floods; and an increase in al. 2018, Seventh national communication … 2017). its duration downstream. At the same time, monthly Climate-change analysis for the period from 1944 to average discharge rates at the peak of the flood increase 2017 indicates an increase in annual precipitation within by more than 85 times from the Astana gauging station the basin of the Yesil River (Fig. 6a, 6b). According to to the v. Ilyinka gauging station. There is a time shift in the Astana weather station, precipitation increased on peak discharge rate from April to May at the v. average from 300 to 350 mm / year; and according to Dolmatovo gauging station. the Petropavlovsk meteorological station from 350 to Analysis was also carried out of the intra-annual 400 mm / year. According to the v. Turgen and distribution of the flow of the River Yesil for different Petropavlovsk gauging stations, precipitation increased water content groups (in % of the seasonal flow) as along with the value of of the river flow.

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a b

c d Fig. 5. Time series and linear trends of anomalies a) average annual temperatures in the Akmola region; b - annual amount of precipitation (in%) in the Akmola region; in - average annual temperatures in the ; g - the annual amount of precipitation (in%) in the North Kazakhstan region. Linear trends are highlighted in green (a) and blue (b) ( Annual bulletin of monitoring the state … 2018)

Table 3. Indicators of the linear trend of anomalies of annual and seasonal temperatures of the surface air layer of the basin of the River Yesil for 1941-2015 ( Bultekov et al. 2010) Year Winter Spring Summer Autumn River basin *а **R2 а R2 а R2 а R2 А R2 Yesil 0.29 32 0.29 5 0.37 17 0.18 12 0.3 15 * a - linear trend coefficient, ºС / 10 years; ** R2 - coefficient of determination,%

Table 4. Indicators of the linear trend of anomalies of annual and seasonal amounts of atmospheric precipitation of the basin of the River Yesil for 1941-2015 ( Seventh national communication … 2017) Unit of Year Winter Spring Summer Autumn River basin measurment *а **R2 А R2 а R2 а R2 а R2 Mm 3.9 2.8 1.8 -1.0 -0.1 Yesil % 1.1 2 5.8 14 2.7 4 -0.2 0 -0.2 0 * a - linear trend coefficient,% / 10 years, mm / 10 years; ** R2 - coefficient of determination,%

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(a)

(b) Fig. 6. The multi-year schedule of changes in average annual expenditures. Yesil and annual precipitation: a - precipitation at the Astana meteorological station (1) and Yesil river discharge at the v. Turgen gauging station (2), b - precipitation at the Petropavlovsk meteorological station (1), Yesil river discharge at the Petropavlovsk gauging station (2)

According to the available data for the headwaters of precipitation in the winter period leads to an increase in the Yesil River as gathered by the conditionally-natural the volume of the flood flow. The Spearman coefficient gauging station v. Turgen, an assessment was carried rs, at a significance level of α = 0.05, is 0.57, and the out of the influence of climatic factors for the period from Student t test (α / 2.39) = 2.021, while the condition 1975 to 2017. The correlation coefficient of the flood | | 1 < ( ), which reflects a statistically α discharge at the v. Turgen gauging station and the significant trend towards an increase in precipitation and 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 √𝑛𝑛 − 𝑡𝑡 2 precipitation for the cold period of the year as measured runoff values. by the Astana meteorological station was 0.7. It should be noted that in some years the relationship between Influence of Deregulation of the Yesil on the runoff and precipitation decreases under the influence of Flow System and Volume other factors. An increased volume of runoff with an The existence of a perennial series of observations insignificant amount of precipitation may occur due to on gauging stations on the Yesil allowed an analysis of the inflow of additional volume from the higher steppe water discharge in a conditionally natural period, from lakes, which in some years may overflow and drain into 1933 to 1970. This is before the construction of large the Yesil. A factor that may reduce the flow of spring reservoirs of long-term and seasonal regulation and runoff into the river is be the low humidity of the basin’s after their commissioning (Veshkurtseva 2010). The soils, when meltwater is spent on moistening and analysis of quantitative changes in the monthly and infiltration, and also accumulates in numerous closed annual average runoff of the Yesil River by gauging depressions. station “Astana city” from 1933 to 2016 with division into In addition, since 1975, changes in the flood periods “before” and “after” the construction of reservoirs. At the same time, calculations were made on parameters have been observed (Fig. 7). There is an increase in runoff occurring during the flood period. The the average, maximum and minimum values of monthly beginning of the flood has shifted to earlier dates, about average and annual average values of the flow of the a week earlier, from early April to the end of March; and Yesil river during the conditionally natural and regulated the end of the flood, respectively, from mid-May to early periods. May. These trends reflect climatic change in the basin: Quantitative changes in mean monthly runoff values an increase in the temperatures of the spring period before and after 1971 (primarily in connection with the leads to a more rapid thawing process and therefore to creation of the Astana and Sergeevsky reservoirs) are an earlier beginning to the flood; and an increase in shown in Table 5.

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Fig. 7. Dynamics of flood runoff for 1975-2017 (1), the dates of the beginning (2) and the end of the flood (3) of the Yesil River at the v. Turgen

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Table 5. Monthly and average annual water discharge for the River Yesil at the Astana gauging station, from 1933 to 1970 and from 1971 to 2016, m3 / s months years years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Average for the period 0.07 0.03 0.56 56.0 8.97 1,67 0,60 0,66 0,51 0.62 0.59 0.29 5.88 1933-1970 Maximum 0.46 0.45 10.6 242 49.3 5.50 2.79 5.28 4.49 5.09 4.17 2.39 22.1 Minimum 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.14 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.10 Average for the period 0.86 0.80 2.01 25.2 4.35 1.94 1.92 1.69 1.46 1.22 1.14 0.98 3.52 1971-2016 Maximum 3.25 3.34 19.4 110 22.1 5.45 5.59 5.89 5.91 5.51 5.19 3.64 13.0

Minimum 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.14 0.15 0.13 0.08 0.01 0.06 0.03 0.08 0.20

Fig. 8. Dynamics of annual maximum water consumption for the River Yesil at the Astana gauging station from 1933 to 2017

Fig. 9. Dynamics of annual maximum water consumption for the River Yesil at the Petropavlovsk gauging station from 1932 - 2016

variations of the annual maximum water discharge The decrease in monthly average water consumption values from 1933 to 2017 was also carried out. An during the flood period in April and May for the period analysis of the annual values of the maximum water flow 1971–2016 is offset by their increase in the remaining over a multi-year period most clearly reflects the months of the year. The average annual values of the changes during the flood period. It shows that after the annual flow for the periods before and after the construction of large reservoirs, there is a decrease in construction of the reservoirs altered and constitute 5.88 the mean values of the maximum water discharge at the m3 / s (1933–1970) and 3.52 m3 / s (1971–2016, Astana gauging station over the long-term period, from respectively), respectively. 310 to 121 m3 / s, and at the Petropavolvsk gauging To assess the impact of large reservoirs on the flow station, from 834 to 536 m3 / s (Fig. 8 and Fig. 9). of the Yesil, a detailed analysis of the chronological

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Table 6. Statistical characteristics of the average annual maximum discharge of water along the River Yesil before the construction of reservoirs and after putting them into operation I. Before the construction of reservoirs II. After commissioning of reservoirs Change, % Gauging station 3 3 3 3 3 years Qср, м /с , м /с Cv Cs years Qср, м /с , м /с Cv Cs Qср , м /с 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Astana city 1933-1970 310 315 1.59 2.11 1971-2016 121 160 0.87 0.15 - 61 - 49 Petropavlovsk city 1932-1968 874 1138 1.66 1.88 1969-2016 536 492 0.74 -0.06 - 39 - 57 Kamennyi karier 1947-1970 975 1195 1.25 2.05 1971-2016 917 868 0.92 1.24 -5.95 -27.4

village

Table 7. Criteria for homogeneity of rows of maximum discharge of water of the Yesil River Conclusion on the Periods of years Student criterion Fisher Criterion Wilcoxon test Gauging homogeneity of the series station Student Fisher Wilcoxon I II t ta F Fa U U1 U2 criterion Criterion test 1933- 1971- heterogen heterogen heterogen Astana city 3.57 1.99 3.87 1.85 1317 671.254 1114.746 1970 2017 eous eous eous Petropavlovsk 1932- 1969- 950 heterogen heterogen heterogen 1.85 1.49 5.32 1.75 716.718 1059.282 city 1968 2016 eous eous eous Kamennyi karier 1947- 1971- homogene heterogen homogene 0.23 1.99 1.94 1.87 525 393.591 710.409

village 1970 2016 ous eous ous

а b Fig. 10. The course of the average monthly discharge of the water of the Yesil River - from the v. Turgen gauging station to the Astana-Koktal gauging station ; b - from the Sergeevka gauging station to the Petropavlovsk gauging station ( Annual data on the regime … 2018)

If the maximum annual (instantaneous) water the rows are not homogeneous. Only the Wilcoxon consumption reached more than 3,760 m3 / s at the criterion shows the uniformity of the series of maximum Petropavlovsk gauging station, then, after the costs for the Petropavlovsk gauging station. commissioning of the Sergeevsky and Astana It can be seen that below the Astana reservoir the (Vyacheslavsky) reservoirs, it did not exceed 1710 m3 / schedule of discharge of water in the Yesil is smoothed: s, and the amplitudes of the inter-annual fluctuations of the maximum monthly discharge rates decrease by the runoff decreased by more than half. more than a third from v. Turgen to v. Volgodonovka. The statistical characteristics of the annual values of Further, to the city of Nur-Sultan, where the flow is maximum water flow after the commissioning of regulated and the riverbed is concreted, the maximum reservoirs have changed significantly (Table 6). The flow rates decrease and stretch from April to May (Fig. values of the maximum water discharge averaged over 10a). The same smoothing of the maximum flow a multiyear period (Qav.), the standard deviation (), the schedule is also observed below the Sergeevsky coefficient of variation (Cv) and the asymmetry (Cs) reservoir. According to the Sergeevka gauging station, have decreased. the maximum average monthly runoff takes place in With the help of statistical significance criteria, a April for one month; whereas at the next gauging series of observations were performed for homogeneity. stations, Petropavlovsk and v. Dolmatovo, the maximum The criterion of the Student (t) was used to test the values for the average monthly flow decrease and are homogeneity of the series by mean value; the Fisher distributed over a longer period during April to May (Fig. criterion (F) by dispersion; and the Wilcoxon criterion 10b). (U1 and U2) by the directivity and intensity of changes (Table 7). The values of the criteria obtained show that

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Fig. 11. Dynamics of water use by industry in the Yesil basin within Kazakhstan: 1 - household needs; 2 - industry; 3 - agriculture; 4 – fisheries. Inset - the dynamics of agricultural water use by sector: 3.1 - regular irrigation, 3.2 - estuary irrigation, 3.3 - agricultural water supply, 3.4 - irrigation of pastures

Fig. 12. Structure of water consumption in the River Yesil River (%) in Kazakhstan: 1 - household needs; 2 - industry; 3 - agriculture; 4 - fisheries; sidebars - expenditure pattern in agriculture by sector: 3.1 - regular irrigation, 3.2 - estuary irrigation, 3.3 - agricultural water supply, 3.4 - irrigation of pastures

Use of Water Resources by Branches of the Looking at the indicator of total use of surface water Economy in the context of industries, there has been a sharp Within the Yesil river basin, the most developed decline in their volumes from 1991 to 2000 by more than industry is agriculture, especially the grain sector. The a third (Fig. 11). If in 1989 the total volume of surface 3 industry here is represented mainly by the energy, water used was 632 million m / year, then by 2017 the mining and processing groups (General scheme of volume decreased by a factor of 3.6 and amounted to 3 integrated use … 2016). 172 million m / year. The largest decrease, up to 10 According to inspection of the Yesil basin in the times less, is typical for agricultural water use (from 410 3 3 modern period in Kazakhstan, 85% of all water is bodies million m / year to 41 million m / year), which is of surface. Water intake from bodies of surface water in associated with the crisis in agriculture. If in the early the Yesil basin is about 174 million m3 /year (2007– 1990s agricultural water consumption amounted to 61% 2016), which is about 7% of the average annual value of of the total water consumption, by the modern period it the annual water resources of the basin. The difference had decreased to 14%. From 2000 to 2017, these between water intake and use is on average 28 million volumes increased slightly. m3 / year; and in general there is a trend towards a Looking at the makeup of water consumption for the decrease in the value, which by 2016 decreased to 13.4 needs of agriculture in the modern period, 64% is million m3 / year (General scheme of integrated use … accounted for by regular irrigation and 32% by 2016). In addition, the volume of water resources lost in agricultural water supply; whereas in 1989 more than evaporation and filtration from the Astana, Sergeevsky half was for irrigation. The decline in industrial water and Petropavlovsk reservoirs, respectively, are 40, 80, consumption occurred in 1998-2000 by up to 50%. The 10 million m3 / year (Surface and groundwater … 2018), average value of water use for industrial purposes in 3 which is generally equal to 5% of the flow of the Kazakh 2000 was 56 million m / year, which accounted for 30% part of the Yesil basin. of the total water consumption. The share of industrial water consumption from 1989 to 2017 increased from 18% to 27% (Fig. 12).

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The volume of water use for domestic needs has River Yesil before construction (conditionally natural changed from 70 to 120 million m3 / year. The share of period) and after the construction of large reservoirs was water use for household needs in 1989 was 15%, and in carried out. For example, the average annual value of 2017 - 59%. the annual flow at the Astana gauging station before the At the same time, there is no strong dependence of construction of the Astana reservoir (1933–1970) was water abstraction on the water content of the year. In 5.88 m3 / s; and after construction (1971–2016) this general, in recent years, the average usage remains at value decreased by 60% and amounted to 3.52 m3 / s. the same level, which leads to a greater lesser load An assessment has been carried out of the impact of on water resources. climate indicators on the flow of the Yesil within the CONCLUSIONS Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions over the past 40- 75 years. The analysis shows that in the Yesil basin the The drainage basin of the transboundary River Yesil greatest temperature anomalies are observed in the is located in the zone of influence of the continental arid spring period and amount to 0.37ºС / 10 years. There is climate within the steppe and forest-steppe zones, also a trend towards increasing anomalies of annual which, along with the development in the basin of island precipitation amounts by 3.9 mm / 10 years, with the low-mountainous low-slope arrays and plains, affect the main contribution being made by precipitation in the structural features of the river system, its volume and winter and spring periods of the year. In the basin of the flow system. Yesil since 1974, there has been an increase in the Based on the analysis of a long-term series of data, annual amounts of precipitation by 50 mm and an the pronounced uneven runoff of the Yesil river with the increase in the volume of river flow. Changes in grouping of high-water and low-water years is precipitation during the cold period are closely related to confirmed, in which the flow of high-water years does not runoff during the flood period. compensate for the flow of the low-water period by a At the same time, according to the Seventh National difference of 2-3 times. An analysis of the spatial and announcement of the Republic of Kazakhstan at the UN temporal changes in the average annual flow volumes of Framework Convention on Climate Change, an increase the Yesil River showed their increase all the way from 3 in the average annual temperature of up to 2.5 ° C is the source to the mouth: from 0.12 km / year as expected in the basin of the River Yesil by 2050 recorded by the v. Turgen gauging station to 2.11 km3 / 3 compared to the multiyear norm for this area. Despite year at the Petropavlovsk gauging station; 2.23 km / the increase in precipitation during the cold period of the year at the v. Dolmatovo gauging station; and up to 3.22 3 year, an increase in temperatures during the spring km / year at the v. Orekhovo gauging station). period will lead to an earlier onset of snowmelt Another feature of the Yesil system is the uneven processes; a decrease in the period of snow distribution of the flow during the year, which is accumulation; a decrease in soil freezing; and a large associated with the exceptional importance of snowmelt loss of moisture reserves (Bultekov et al. 2010). to the water feeding the river of. Analysis of a series of According to the forecast data, there will by 2050 be data on the flood system showed a number of a decrease in the annual flow relative to the multi-year developing trends. The river is characterized by the norm within the Yesil basin. By 2050, the flow of the Yesil practically simultaneous onset of flood throughout its will have decreased by 5.9% (v. Turgen) (Bultekov et al. length (the second decade of March); a temporary shift 2010). With the general trend of decreasing water of the flood peak from April to May and an increase in availability in rivers, the risk of the creation of extremely flood duration downstream; an increase in water flow as high floods, low water, and droughts cannot be ruled out. the main tributaries flow into the river (up to 85 times To determine the quantitative parameters of the more between the Astana gauging station and the possible shortage of water resources, an indicator of Ilyinka village gauging station). In addition, over the past specific water availability was calculated in thousand m3 40 years, there has been a trend towards a reduction in / year per person. The basic of the River Yesil within the duration of the floods by an average of 20%, and an Kazakhstan is characterized by very low water increase in runoff occurring during the floods by a factor availability - 1.3 thousand m3 / year per person. The of 1.8; and the beginning of the flood has shifted to water balance of recent years has shown that water earlier dates, from early April to the end of March, and resources are deficient in the upper part of the Yesil the end of the flood from mid-May to early May. basin due to the increase in water consumption in the The regulation of the flow of the Yesil River has a city of Nur-Sultan. Water availability in the Yesil basin in significant impact on the water system of the river. Russia reaches 4.77 thousand m3 / year (local flow). Based on the analysis of long data series, qualitative and The actual load on the water body associated with quantitative changes in the hydrological characteristics water intake reflects the indicator of water stress of the river are demonstrated, taking into account the (Chigrinets 2009). For the Yesil, with average annual regulatory activity of the reservoirs. The analysis of the flow through the territory of Kazakhstan at 2.52 km3 / volume and intra-annual distribution of the flow of the year (Surface water resources in areas … 1960) and

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Table 8. The values of water stress in the Yesil river basin in 2007-2016 ( Surface water resources in areas of virgin ... 1960) Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Annual water resources, km3 0.48 0.29 0.78 0.61 1.1 1.82 1.64 0.75 3.43 Water abstraction from the surface 0.168 0.166 0.17 0.17 0.174 0.172 0.178 0.181 0.17 of water resources, km3

Water stress, % 35.0 57.2 21.8 27.9 15.8 9.5 10.9 24.1 5.0 average modern water intake from the surface water The assessment of water resources, long-term and bodies of the basin at 0.174 km3 / year (2007-2016), the intra-annual flow dynamics of the River YYesil (Ishim) water stress indicator is 7%, which indicates the shows their dependence on natural factors and an absence of water stress in the basin (Table 8). increase in water consumption. Depending on the water content of the year, the To solve the issues of conservation and rational use indicator of water stress may vary. Thus, in the last of water resources of the transboundary River Yesil in decade there have been years with a moderate level of conditions of water scarcity in the upper and middle parts water resource shortages (2008-2011, 2015), as well as of the basin, it is necessary to regulate river flow and 2009 with a high level of water shortages. implement sustainable use of water resources using new technologies for water treatment and reuse.

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