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Building a Neoclassical Realist Approach for the Study of Regional Powers Nuclear Choices

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Building a Neoclassical Realist Approach for the Study of Regional Powers Nuclear Choices From breadcrumbs to threads of wool: Building a neoclassical realist approach for the study of regional powers nuclear choices. By Mariana Carpes Submitted to the University of Hamburg and GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Dr. Phil. Advisor. Detlef Notle 2014 From breadcrumbs to threads of wool: Building a neoclassical realist approach for the study of regional powers nuclear choices. By Mariana Carpes Submitted to the University of Hamburg and GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Dr. Phil. Chairperson: Prof. Dr. Michael Brzoska Committee Members: Prof Dr. Detlef Nolte Prof. Dr. Robert Kappel Date Defense: 22 January 2015 ii Abstract The aim of this PhD dissertation is to further the debate within realism with regards to the behavior of regional powers in specific issue areas. Particularly, this research focuses on nuclear dynamics. It starts by presenting a historical assessment of the nuclear choices of Brazil, India, and South Africa from the early-1970s to the mid-to-late-1990s and seek to identify the causes of variation in their nuclear behavior. During the period under scrutiny, critical junctures are identified and assessed using process tracing. Based on the empirical analysis, the realist research agenda is refined. From a theoretical stand point, this dissertation starts from the two general assumptions coined by the defensive neorealism of Kenneth Waltz: (a) the international distribution of power shapes states’ behavior and (b) states possess different capabilities whereas being functionally alike. Conceptually, Brazil, India, and South Africa are classified as regional powers, and as such the Waltzian theory would simply expect them to present similar international behavior. But with regards to their nuclear choices one can verify significant variations among the cases and within each case that ultimately challenge the theory’s predictions. Because the Waltzian assumptions are far too elusive to help understanding the real world, they will be treated in this dissertation as the starting point of a research program from where a realist mid-range theory of foreign policy can be developed. In order to overcome the gap left by Waltz’s approach, this dissertation uses a neoclassical realist framework. Neoclassical realism advances Waltz’s thesis in order to explain variation in state’s behavior. But with regards to the behavior of regional powers, there is still space to refine the current neoclassical realist approaches available. This is precisely the task embraced by this dissertation. Methodologically, Brazil, India, and South Africa are treated as deviant cases from which analysis one can refine a theory (George and Bennett 2005: 111). The cases are used to illustrate the limits of a strict top- down analysis and in this sense can help furthering the realist research agenda on regional powers. iii Zusammenfassung Diese Dissertation führt die Tradition der realistischen Denkschule der Internationalen Beziehungen weiter und schlägt eine neue Forschungsagenda zur Atompolitik der Regionalmächte vor. Diese basiert auf einer historischen Analyse der Atompolitik dreier Regionalmächte, nämlich Brasilien, Indien und Südafrika, die im Zeitverlauf zwischen den frühen 1970er Jahren und den späten 1990er Jahren unterschiedliche Strategien verfolgten. Die Studie beruht auf zwei theoretischen Annahmen von Kenneth Waltz: (a) die internationale Machtverteilung prägt das Verhalten von Staaten und (b) Staaten sind im funktionellen Sinne gleich, besitzen aber unterschiedliche Fähigkeiten. Anhand empirischer Daten analysiert diese Dissertation die Gründe für das unterschiedliche Verhalten von Brasilien, Indien und Südafrika, die sich laut Waltz‘ theoretischer Annahmen aufgrund ihres Regionalmachtstatus ähnlich hätten verhalten müssten. Anders ausgedrückt: Warum weicht das tatsächliche Verhalten dieser Regionalmächte von dem von der Theorie prognostizierten Verhalten ab? Da der Realismus nach Waltz zu undefiniert ist, um die Veränderung im Verhalten der Staaten zu erklären, greift diese Dissertation auf den neoklassischen Realismus zurück. Allerdings müssen auch die aktuellen theoretischen Zugänge des neoklassischen Realismus verbessert werden – insbesondere in Bezug auf das Verhalten von Regionalmächten. Die vorliegende Dissertation widmet sich genau dieser Aufgabe mit dem Ziel, eine Theorie mittlerer Reichweite zu entwickeln, welche die Variationen in der Atompolitik von Regionalmächten berücksichtigen kann. iv Acknowledgment I would like to thank the GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, and the University of Hamburg for the scholarships that made this PhD possible. I am also thankful to my first and second supervisors, Detlef Nolte and Michael Brzoska, for your time and insights. From the GIGA I am thankful to all my PhD colleagues for the inspiring and provocative talks, as well as to the outstanding group of young and senior researchers for making the GIGA such a challenging and friendly environment to work. I am particularly grateful to Maren Wagner and Daniel Flemes for your friendship and loyalty. I want to give a special thanks to Daniela Garcia and Josiane Salame for assisting me through the very final steps of my PhD. I am grateful to the Non Proliferation International History Project (NPIHP), the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars for the fellowship on Brazil’s Nuclear History that made possible two incredible month of research in Washington DC, at the Woodrow Wilson Center, the National Security Archive and the Library of the Congress. I am also grateful to the NPIHP for the opportunity to participate in the Nuclear Boot Camp 2012. This experience brought a whole new perspective to my research and my way of addressing theories and primary sources. From the NPIHP I would like thank all the colleagues that make this network so amazing. I want to give a special thanks to Christian Ostermann, Leopoldo Nuti, Joseph Pilat, Anna-Mart van Wyk, Marilena Gala, Francis Gavin, David Holloway, for all their knowledge on nuclear history and their willingness to assist young nuclear researchers. I am eternally thankful to my family and friends that gave me support during these years of PhD. Without your love and trust I would have never had the courage to leave Brazil and pursue a PhD abroad. I am also thankful to all the new friends I made in Hamburg and for so many unforgettable moments. Finally, I thank Cem Alpay for his unconditional love, friendship and admiration since the very first beginning of my journey in Hamburg. I am also eternally thankful to his family for having me all this years. v The third image describes the framework of world politics, but without the first and the second images there can be no knowledge of the forces that determine policy; the first and second images describe the forces in world politics, but without the third image it is impossible to assess their importance or predict their results. (Waltz 1959: 238) (…) neither an agent-based nor a structure-based explanation is complete without the other, and both should be integrated into our explanations, whether they be theoretical models or historical narratives. We can ignore neither the preferences of actors not the structural or informational environments in which they act. (Levy 2001: 72) vi Content Abstract iii Acknowledgment iv Introduction 01 Part I Preparing for the Journey: Puzzle, Theory, Concepts, Methods, and Cases Chapter 1 1.1. Introduction 12 1.1.1. Structure of the Chapter 14 1.2. Literature review: Realism 15 1.2.1. Structure, System, and States 15 1.2.2. Balancing of Power and Bandwagoning 18 1.2.3. (Neo)realist Theories of Foreign Policy 23 1.2.4. Neoclassical Realism and the New Realist Approach to Foreign Policy 30 1.2.4.1. Power 32 1.2.4.2. State 33 1.2.4.3. Perception 37 1.3. Regional Powers: Defining the Concept 40 1.4. Regions, Regional Powers, and Realism 43 1.5. Research Design 53 1.5.1. History and International Relations 55 1.5.2. Framing a method: Process Tracing 57 1.5.3. Comparing to Avoid Spurious Conclusions 61 1.6. Introducing the Cases 65 vii Part II Cases – Exploring the Labyrinth II. Introduction 68 II.1. Literature Review 68 II.2. Similar Historical Backgrounds 75 Chapter 2 Reaching both sides of the Spectrum: A historical account of South Africa’s nuclear proliferation and nuclear forbearance. 80 2.1 Introduction 80 2.1.1. Structure of the Chapter 82 2.2. The First Years 83 2.2.1. Nuclear Energy for Peaceful Purposes 85 2.3. 1970s: Developing Material Conditions for a Shift in the Nuclear Program 88 2.3.1. Changes at the regional environment meeting domestic nuclear capabilities 90 2.3.2. South Africa Proliferates to “secure” the Country 94 2.4. “Rolling Back” 98 2.5. Conclusion 105 Chapter 3 No weapons, just latency: A Historical Account of Brazil’s Flirt with nuclear explosives 107 3.1 Introduction 107 3.1.1. Structure of the Chapter 110 3.2. First Years 111 viii 3.3 After 1974: Search for Nuclear Autonomy 118 3.3.1. Flirting with the Bomb: The Parallel (Autonomous) Nuclear Program 120 3.4. Relations with Argentina 125 3.4.1. Nuclear Development between cordiality and rivalry 126 3.4.2. Abandoning Competition for the Sake of Cooperation 131 3.5. After all no Bomb, only latency – Coming Clean! 136 3.6. Conclusion 138 Chapter 4 India: From a Nuclear Option to Nuclear Weapons 139 4.1 Introduction 139 4.2. First Years 144 4.3. India’s Nuclear Program between Moral Principals and Real Threats 149 4.4. Too Many Actors for Just One Region 154 4.5. India’s Final Turn towards Weaponization 156 4.6. International Reactions to India’s 1998 Test 159 4.7. Conclusion 160 II.3. Conclusion Part II 161 ix Part III Sewing a Thread of Wool -Theory Building Chapter 5 Comparing nuclear behaviors 166 5.1.
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