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Energy & the State Summer 2016 A Publication based at St Antony’s College Energy & the State: The Impact of Low Oil Prices Featuring H.E. Anas Al-Saleh Minister of Finance and Oil State of Kuwait H.E. Abdalla Salem El-Badri Secretary General OPEC Adnan Amin Director-General IRENA Majid Jafar Chief Executive Officer Crescent Petroleum Foreword by Roula Majdalani OxGAPS | Oxford Gulf & Arabian Peninsula Studies Forum OxGAPS is a University of Oxford platform based at St Antony’s College pro- moting interdisciplinary research and dialogue on the pressing issues facing the region. Senior Member: Dr. Eugene Rogan Gulf Affairs Editorial Committee: Chairman & Managing Editor: Suliman Al-Atiqi Vice Chairman & Partnerships: Adel Hamaizia Editor: Jamie Etheridge GCC Relations: Zaid Belbagi Copy Editor: Yasmina Abouzzohour Copy Editor: Jack Hoover Research Assistant: Matthew Greene Copyright © 2016 OxGAPS Forum All rights reserved Summer 2016 Gulf Affairs is an independent, non-partisan journal organized by OxGAPS, with the aim of bridging the voices of scholars, practitioners, and policy-mak- ers to further knowledge and dialogue on pressing issues, challenges and opportunities facing the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of OxGAPS, St Antony’s College, or the Univer- sity of Oxford. Contact Details: OxGAPS Forum 62 Woodstock Road Oxford, OX2 6JF, UK Fax: +44 (0)1865 595770 Email: [email protected] Web: www.oxgaps.org Design and Layout by B’s Graphic Communication. Email: [email protected] Cover: Oil pipeline in the desert of Qatar. Photo Credits: Cover - Philipus/123RF; 2 - Yasser Al Zayyat/Kuwait Times; 5 - Herbert Pfarrhofer/EPA; 9 - Saudi Press Agency; 12 - Philipus/123RF; 32 - Zhang Jianshe; 36 - Foreign and Commonwealth Office’s Photostream. The Issue ‘Energy & The State: The Impact of Low Oil Prices’ was supported by: Table of Contents Foreword iv Roula Majdalani iv I. Overview vi Energy & the State: The Impact of Low Oil Prices vi Laura El-Katiri, Theme Editor II. Analysis 1 Meaningful Change or False Dawn: Policymaking in an Age of Austerity 2 by Kristian Coates Ulrichsen OPEC Relinquishes Control of the Oil Market 5 by Kate Dourian The Obstacles Facing Renewables in the Gulf 9 by Faris Al Sulayman Dubai: An Inspiration for Green Economy Transition in the Gulf 12 by Katarina Uherova Hasbani III. Commentary 17 The Impact of Low Oil Prices on the Gulf 18 by Paul Stevens The New Oil Normal Paradigm 20 by Nasser Saidi and Patricia McCall Opening up the Decision-Making Process in Saudi Arabia 22 by Mark C. Thompson The Gulf States and Oil Prices 24 by Giacomo Luciani ii Gulf Affairs Table of Contents IV. Interviews 27 H.E. Anas Al-Saleh 28 Minister of Finance, Minister of Oil State of Kuwait H.E. Abdalla Salem El-Badri 32 Secretary General Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Adnan Amin 36 Director-General International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Majid Jafar 40 Chief Executive Office Crescent Petroleum V. Featured Infographics and Timeline 44 Featured Infographics: GCC Renewable Energy Outlook 44 by IRENA Timeline 46 Energy & the State: The Impact of Low Oil Prices |Summer 2016 iii Foreword Foreword by Roula Majdalani In the past several years, global economic activity has remained subdued, downside economic risks have persisted, fragile and slowing growth has been seen in many parts of the world, and high debts continue to loom large over global recovery. Oil prices have declined more than 70 percent compared with June 2014 levels, and uncertain predictions have created rising sources of concern, demonstrating a major fun- damental alteration in the global energy system that has unavoidably affected the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The GCC is located in one of the most energy-rich regions in the world. It is blessed with huge oil and con- ventional gas reserves constituting nearly a third of world oil and more than a fifth of global natural gas reserves, which are concentrated in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The recent fall in oil prices caused a number of sovereign credit-rating downgrades in the Gulf region. These affected Bahrain and Oman the most, whereas Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE fared better. Energy and the GCC countries are inextricably intertwined, a fact made clear in this current period of vol- atile oil prices. The future of global energy demand and supply is highly dependent on the region’s energy resources, and any alteration of the Gulf’s customary position in the energy scene threatens the interna- tional stability of the energy supply as well as the region’s significance as the leading fossil fuels supplier. Oil and natural gas reserves also constitute the fundamental pillar of the GCC states’ growth and have powered the socio-economic development that transformed them, within a mere few decades, into some of the world’s richest nations. Energy consumption within the region has risen sixfold since the 1980s, faster than in any other part of the world. GCC countries are primarily dependent on fossil fuels to meet their energy requirements. This is now a critical situation as demand skyrockets and their economies and populations continue to grow. Indeed, the GCC states’ incomparable economic growth together with their rapidly rising living standards have left their mark on the region’s domestic energy needs. Over the next decade, as the GCC population is expected to increase substantially, the region will see an increasing strain on its supplies of electricity, food, and water. The ways in which the region will face up to these challenges will significantly impact its prosperity and quality of life. In the near term, however, the rate of economic growth may be threatened by diminishing oil revenues just when the needs of a burgeoning population are the greatest. Seen by some as a blessing in disguise, such low prices can serve as an opportunity for GCC countries to make productive changes in relation to their energy strategies and economic diversification. With this in mind, concerted action on energy for sustainable development is essential for the GCC coun- tries, which face unprecedented challenges in aligning the development agenda with their national prior- ities, capabilities, and circumstances. Thus, transitioning to a sustainable energy system is an opportuni- ty for GCC countries to improve energy efficiency (EE) from source to use and minimize environmental impacts. This transition will enhance efficiency not only in consumer-level energy consumption, but also upstream in generation, transmission, and distribution. iv Gulf Affairs Foreword The Gulf region is not only home to some of the world’s leaders in oil and gas production, but it is also a potential powerhouse of renewable energy (RE). RE can also render development more sustainable and help reduce the carbon intensity of the energy sector. Despite existing RE and EE policies and institutional frameworks within the GCC countries, reform is still required to develop appropriate RE solutions and support EE measures. RE applications and EE measures still need to be promoted and synergized to pro- duce a substantive impact on the ground. Levelling the playing field to attract private sector investment in both areas includes the adoption of supportive policies, strategies, incentives, and financing mechanisms. Furthermore, in light of the current oil price decline, policy-makers in GCC countries should push for the reform of domestic energy pricing by reducing subsidies, in particular on petroleum products and electric- ity. This will lead to savings in government spending and avail budgets for investment on RE and EE. There is also an urgent need to adopt development policies for economic diversification. This should include a focus on employment-intensive economic activities in a range of sectors prioritized to promote sustain- able economic development over economic growth. Major uncertainties in the world energy market, geopolitical climate, and recovering global economy mean that it is ever more important for the GCC countries to build a sustainable energy system. This process would involve a substantial transition from what is in place today. Such a transition will call for bold strat- egies if the GCC region is to realize a more sustainable future. Roula Majdalani is the Director of the ESCWA Sustainable Development Policies Division at UN-ESCWA. The division promotes cooperation among ESCWA countries on the sustainable management of natural resources with a focus on water, energy and green production. She joined ESCWA in 1989 and has served as a Human Settlements Officer, First Economic Affairs Officer on water resources, and Chief of the Technical Cooperation Section. Majdalani holds a master’s degree in Urban and Regional Planning from Syracuse University and previously worked with Dar Al-Handasah Consultants (London). Energy & the State: The Impact of Low Oil Prices | Summer 2016 v I. Overview Energy and the State: The Impact of Low Oil Prices Overview by Laura El-Katiri, Theme Editor The GCC states form a historical core part of the world’s largest oil producing region, the Middle East. Com- bined, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) hold around 30 percent of proven world crude oil and around a fifth of global gas reserves. Saudi Arabia alone holds the world’s second largest oil reserves—with around 268 billion barrels—and is the world’s third largest producer of total petroleum liquids. Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE also form an important backbone of the group of Arab producers within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), whose production policies continue to be important influencing factors on global oil markets. In addition to oil, the Gulf region is also home to other significant energy sources.
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