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NCCARF Synthesis and Integrative Research Program NCCARF Synthesis and Integrative Research An Assessment of the Vulnerability of Australian Forests to the Impacts of Climate Change IV. Climate change adaptation options, tools and vulnerability Image: Richard Hagen Robyn Wilson and Steve Turton NCCARF Synthesis and Integrative Research Program NCCARF Synthesis and Integrative Research FOREST VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Climate change adaptation options, tools and vulnerability Contribution of Work Package 4 to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment James Cook University Authors Robyn Wilson Steve Turton Published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) ISBN: 978-1-921609-24-4 NCCARF Publication number 22/10 © James Cook University 2010 Please use following reference when citing this report: Wilson, R. and Turton, S. 2011. Climate change adaptation options, tools and vulnerability. Contribution of Work Package 4 to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment, Gold Coast, Australia, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. Disclaimer The research in this report was undertaken with funding obtained from the Commonwealth of Australia through the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth, and the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for any information or advice contained within. Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment project ................................ 4 1.1 Purpose and approach ................................................................................ 4 1.2 Definition of forests and forest uses for the purpose of the project ............. 5 1.3 Classifying Australia’s forests.................................................................... 11 1.4 Climate change projections and scenario modelling ................................. 12 1.5 Projected changes in climate factors......................................................... 14 2 Objectives of this report ..................................................................................... 15 3 Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity .................................................................. 15 4 Methodology ...................................................................................................... 18 a) Semi-structured interviews ............................................................................ 18 b) Social learning workshop .............................................................................. 18 c) Analysis......................................................................................................... 18 5 Options for adaptation to climate change .......................................................... 19 a) Land management ........................................................................................ 20 b) Specific silvicultural practices........................................................................ 22 c) Social and community skills, knowledge and land value............................... 23 d) Planning ........................................................................................................ 24 e) Adaptation options identified from interviews ................................................ 27 6 Tools and guidance used to inform planning and policy for climate change adaptation ................................................................................................................. 30 a) Biophysical tools............................................................................................ 30 b) Socio-economic tools .................................................................................... 32 c) Policy tools .................................................................................................... 33 d) Stakeholders’ response: tools and guidance................................................. 37 7 Vulnerability of forests and regions to climate change....................................... 44 a) Potential impact according to climate change modelling scenarios .............. 44 b) Adaptive Capacity (risk, exposure, sensitivity and constraints/barriers) ....... 45 c) Vulnerability of Australia’s forest to climate change without adaptation........ 51 d) Interviews and social learning workshop - stakeholder perceptions ............. 55 8 Summary of findings .......................................................................................... 67 9 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 72 a) Objective 1: Adaptation options for climate change ...................................... 72 b) Objective 2: Tools and guidance used to inform planning and policy for climate change adaptation..................................................................................... 73 c) Objective 3: Vulnerability of forests and regions to climate change .............. 73 10 References.................................................................................................... 75 11 Appendices.................................................................................................... 88 Appendix 1 HREC – Approved Questions Used for Interviews ............................. 88 Appendix 2: List of Audio and transcript files from participant interviews.............. 91 Appendix 3: Community engagement strategies.................................................. 92 i Appendix 4: Adaptive strategies for land management ........................................ 94 Appendix 5: Planning and policy strategies for climate change adaptation......... 100 Appendix 6: Planned adaptation......................................................................... 102 Appendix 7: Collaborations.................................................................................. 104 Appendix 8: Level of vulnerability of Australian forests ....................................... 106 Appendix 9: Stakeholder comments on exposure, sensitivity and changed paradigms from interviews................................................................................... 108 Appendix 10: Biophysical, conflicting priorities, financial and governance constraints ........................................................................................................... 112 Appendix 11: Knowledge constraints .................................................................. 118 ii Executive Summary The assessment of the vulnerability of Australian forests to climate change is an initiative of the Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council (NRMMC). The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) was approached to carry out such a comprehensive Forest Vulnerability Assessment (FVA). NCCARF engaged four research groups to investigate distinct aspects in relation to the vulnerability of forests, each of which has produced a report. In addition a fifth group was engaged to create a summary and synthesis report of the project. This report – Climate change adaptation options, tools and vulnerability - is the fourth report in the series. Through semi-structured stakeholder interviews, a social learning workshop with industry, and a review of published and unpublished literature, this part of the FVA project considers the adaptation options and strategies available for the forest sector to deal with climate change and the vulnerability of Australia’s forests. This includes tools and guidance available to inform planning and policy for climate change adaptation in government and the private forestry sector. A conceptual framework for understanding the vulnerability of Australia’s forests to climate change was used. This provides that the impact of climate change depends on both the magnitude of climate change in the particular location (exposure) and how strongly each unit change in climate impacts that activity (sensitivity). However, since forest managers are likely to take actions in response to these changes (adaptation), the potential impacts are likely to be modified through their actions. This “adaptive capacity” will be a function of the operating context of the forest system, the knowledge and options of the forestry sector and individual capability. In other words, the vulnerability of forests to climate change is dependent not just on the potential biophysical impacts but also on the way people respond and their potential to minimise any adverse impacts. In the first and second parts of the FVA project the exposure and sensitivity of Australia’s forests were considered. Here we focus on adaptive capacity and adaptation options and actions. Adaptive capacity The production forestry sector operates in a highly variable climate and has a long history of adaptation through experience and scientific research and implementation. Even though ongoing vulnerability associated with extreme events such as fire, drought, floods and cyclones is still high, Australia has several well developed systems in place to manage climate change impacts, such as a well developed economy, extensive scientific and technical capabilities, disaster mitigation strategies and plans, and well developed biosecurity procedures. In contrast to human systems, natural systems have low adaptive capacity to rapid climate change, notably evolutionary processes may be too slow for forests to adapt in time, Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution
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