An Assessment of the Vulnerability of Australian Forests to the Impacts of Climate Change

IV. Climate change adaptation options, tools and vulnerability

Image: Richard Hagen

Robyn Wilson and Steve Turton NCCARF Synthesis and Integrative Research Program NCCARF Synthesis and Integrative Research

FOREST VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Climate change adaptation options, tools and vulnerability

Contribution of Work Package 4 to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment

James Cook University

Authors

Robyn Wilson Steve Turton

Published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF)

ISBN: 978-1-921609-24-4

NCCARF Publication number 22/10

© James Cook University 2010

Please use following reference when citing this report:

Wilson, R. and Turton, S. 2011. Climate change adaptation options, tools and vulnerability. Contribution of Work Package 4 to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment, Gold Coast, Australia, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.

Disclaimer

The research in this report was undertaken with funding obtained from the Commonwealth of Australia through the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth, and the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for any information or advice contained within.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ...... 1

1 Introduction to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment project ...... 4 1.1 Purpose and approach ...... 4 1.2 Definition of forests and forest uses for the purpose of the project ...... 5 1.3 Classifying Australia’s forests...... 11 1.4 Climate change projections and scenario modelling ...... 12 1.5 Projected changes in climate factors...... 14

2 Objectives of this report ...... 15

3 Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity ...... 15

4 Methodology ...... 18 a) Semi-structured interviews ...... 18 b) Social learning workshop ...... 18 c) Analysis...... 18

5 Options for adaptation to climate change ...... 19 a) Land management ...... 20 b) Specific silvicultural practices...... 22 c) Social and community skills, knowledge and land value...... 23 d) Planning ...... 24 e) Adaptation options identified from interviews ...... 27

6 Tools and guidance used to inform planning and policy for climate change adaptation ...... 30 a) Biophysical tools...... 30 b) Socio-economic tools ...... 32 c) Policy tools ...... 33 d) Stakeholders’ response: tools and guidance...... 37

7 Vulnerability of forests and regions to climate change...... 44 a) Potential impact according to climate change modelling scenarios ...... 44 b) Adaptive Capacity (risk, exposure, sensitivity and constraints/barriers) ...... 45 c) Vulnerability of Australia’s forest to climate change without adaptation...... 51 d) Interviews and social learning workshop - stakeholder perceptions ...... 55

8 Summary of findings ...... 67

9 Conclusions ...... 72 a) Objective 1: Adaptation options for climate change ...... 72 b) Objective 2: Tools and guidance used to inform planning and policy for climate change adaptation...... 73 c) Objective 3: Vulnerability of forests and regions to climate change ...... 73

10 References...... 75

11 Appendices...... 88 Appendix 1 HREC – Approved Questions Used for Interviews ...... 88 Appendix 2: List of Audio and transcript files from participant interviews...... 91 Appendix 3: Community engagement strategies...... 92

i Appendix 4: Adaptive strategies for land management ...... 94 Appendix 5: Planning and policy strategies for climate change adaptation...... 100 Appendix 6: Planned adaptation...... 102 Appendix 7: Collaborations...... 104 Appendix 8: Level of vulnerability of Australian forests ...... 106 Appendix 9: Stakeholder comments on exposure, sensitivity and changed paradigms from interviews...... 108 Appendix 10: Biophysical, conflicting priorities, financial and governance constraints ...... 112 Appendix 11: Knowledge constraints ...... 118

ii Executive Summary

The assessment of the vulnerability of Australian forests to climate change is an initiative of the Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council (NRMMC). The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) was approached to carry out such a comprehensive Forest Vulnerability Assessment (FVA). NCCARF engaged four research groups to investigate distinct aspects in relation to the vulnerability of forests, each of which has produced a report. In addition a fifth group was engaged to create a summary and synthesis report of the project. This report – Climate change adaptation options, tools and vulnerability - is the fourth report in the series.

Through semi-structured stakeholder interviews, a social learning workshop with industry, and a review of published and unpublished literature, this part of the FVA project considers the adaptation options and strategies available for the forest sector to deal with climate change and the vulnerability of Australia’s forests. This includes tools and guidance available to inform planning and policy for climate change adaptation in government and the private forestry sector.

A conceptual framework for understanding the vulnerability of Australia’s forests to climate change was used. This provides that the impact of climate change depends on both the magnitude of climate change in the particular location (exposure) and how strongly each unit change in climate impacts that activity (sensitivity). However, since forest managers are likely to take actions in response to these changes (adaptation), the potential impacts are likely to be modified through their actions. This “adaptive capacity” will be a function of the operating context of the forest system, the knowledge and options of the forestry sector and individual capability. In other words, the vulnerability of forests to climate change is dependent not just on the potential biophysical impacts but also on the way people respond and their potential to minimise any adverse impacts. In the first and second parts of the FVA project the exposure and sensitivity of Australia’s forests were considered. Here we focus on adaptive capacity and adaptation options and actions.

Adaptive capacity

The production forestry sector operates in a highly variable climate and has a long history of adaptation through experience and scientific research and implementation.

Even though ongoing vulnerability associated with extreme events such as fire, drought, floods and cyclones is still high, Australia has several well developed systems in place to manage climate change impacts, such as a well developed economy, extensive scientific and technical capabilities, disaster mitigation strategies and plans, and well developed biosecurity procedures.

In contrast to human systems, natural systems have low adaptive capacity to rapid climate change, notably evolutionary processes may be too slow for forests to adapt in time,

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 1 biological systems may not cope with the rate of change, contractions of suitable habitat to grow forest will be an issue and increasing fragmentation due to past and present land-use change will limit migration of native forests in response to shifting climate zones.

Adaptation options

This study collated a wide range of climate change adaptation options for the forestry sector, many of them adaptations to climate variability already in use. They include the application of new and innovative land management approaches, adoption of specific silvicultural practices, enhancing social and community skills through increased knowledge and better planning for climate change. There is a growing interest in adaptation options for conservation forests and identified options largely involving the identification of future refugia and the building of resilience to climate change through whole of landscape approaches, such as corridor systems for connecting forest reserves. Stakeholders are also demonstrating a strong interest in climate change adaptation approaches that cut across the conservation and production forestry sectors.

A large range of tools are available to assist the forest sector with adapting to climate change. These include biophysical, socio-economic and policy tools. On-ground monitoring and modelling tools will form the basis of biophysical tool kits to respond to climate change adaptation. These monitoring and modelling tools range from the use of fire, thinning and other management techniques used in a forest management cycle, to the use of sophisticated modelling tools, such as artificial neural networks to predict vegetation change under various climate change scenarios. Socio-economic tools tend to be used for modelling the impacts of climate change on linked natural and social systems at a broader level as well as those specific to the forestry sector. In particular, the total economic value (TEV) framework provides a useful approach for identifying the range of forest socio-economic costs and benefits of climate change with respect to both the use and non-use values of forests. Many of the models and measurement techniques identified by the production and conservation sectors for use in climate change are focused on mitigation, but many have potential for use in climate change adaptation.

Vulnerability

While there are considerable gaps in the information required to assess forest vulnerability, there are some broad characteristics of forests that will increase their vulnerability to climate change. Those characteristics are listed below:

• Those forests or species within those forests at the edge of their ranges or where there is little or no room for forest biota to migrate. Examples of this would be species in the upland rainforests of the wet tropics of north Queensland.

• Forests in areas where there is high competition for other land uses. For example, if the best adaptation option is migratory corridors but land becomes unavailable due to pressures from urban and peri-urban expansion, road and transport infrastructure

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 2 development, sea-level rise, competition with agriculture and increasing aridity, then this adaptation option may be threatened.

• Plantations species that have a long rotation period that have been planted under current climate conditions may have reduced yield or performance as climate conditions become sub-optimal for that species.

• Impacts of existing stressors are likely to be exacerbated under climate change. Forests that currently experience such pressures (e.g. fragmentation, weeds, fire, disease, salinity) will be highly vulnerable to climate change.

• Forests that are exposed to extreme events (e.g. frequent and severe fires, inundation and severe storms or cyclones) under future climate change will have an increased vulnerability. .

Conclusions

Irrespective of available adaptation measures and tools, it seems that there is still a disconnect between climate change adaptation science and the on-ground management of native forests and plantations. Of particular concern is that many stakeholders still confuse climate change adaptation with climate change mitigation. Moreover, many of the adaptation strategies identified through the stakeholder interviews were not strictly strategies for adapting to climate change but essentially strategies for adopting environmentally sustainable land management practices.

Policy needs to provide the framework by which climate change adaptation is developed and implemented. There is currently little state and territory policy designed specifically for the adaptation of forestry to climate change. However, many policies related to water management and environmental sustainability are in place across the states and territories, which do address climate variability and forests and are relevant to climate change adaptation.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 3 1 Introduction to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment project

The Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council (NRMMC) identified the need for a national assessment of the vulnerability of Australia’s forests to climate change and a framework for adaptation to the potential impacts. The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) through the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) was approached to carry out such a comprehensive assessment of the vulnerability of Australia’s forests. This Forest Vulnerability Assessment (FVA) has been carried out by four research groups each of which has produced a report. In addition a Synthesis Report (Boulter et al. 2011) has been produced which summarises and synthesises the outcomes from the four narrowly focussed reports. A summary for policy makers for the whole project has also been prepared.. A Steering Committee of federal and state government and university stakeholders involved in forest management, policy and research was engaged to adopt the NRMMC brief and set the parameters for this study. Here we scope the FVA and introduce the general terms of reference for the project.

1.1 Purpose and approach The primary aim of the Forest Vulnerability Assessment project is to provide forestry policy makers and forest managers in Australia with information that assists the sector to adapt to climate change. In particular, the project sought to provide governments, natural resource managers and the business sector with: • an improved understanding of current knowledge of the likely biophysical and socio- economic consequences of climate change for Australia’s native and planted forest regions; • an assessment of the vulnerability of Australian forests from the perspectives of both resource use and ecosystem services - identifying particularly vulnerable forests and communities in major forest areas; • an understanding of what is already being done in Australia in relation to understanding and managing climate related risk in relation to forests; and • guidance on key gaps to assist climate change adaptation.

The project has sought to enhance awareness of forest managers and policy makers to climate change risk by providing up-to-date information about likely climate change impacts on forests and vulnerability to these impacts. As outlined above, the project was undertaken by a consortium of research groups with specific aspects of the project allocated to five separate Work Packages (WP) based on four major research themes and a synthesis. Work Packages 1 to 4, through an extensive review of literature and policy from a range of sources (including peer reviewed journals and technical reports) and through engaging with stakeholders, provide a critical analysis of the vulnerability of Australia’s forests to climate

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 4 change impacts. (see Table 1 for a list of reports). A fifth Work Package (Boulter et al. 2011) summarises and synthesises all Work Packages, draws some broader conclusions on regional variability and vulnerabilities, and provides a review of the legal issues surrounding forest management under climate change.

Table 1: The Work Package reports delivered as part of the forest vulnerability assessment (Abbreviations: JCU – James Cook University, Macquarie – Macquarie University, Murdoch – Murdoch University, QUT – Queensland University of Technology, USC – University of the Sunshine Coast, USQ – University of Southern Queensland, GU - Griffith University and NCCARF, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility) WP Report title Authors and affiliations 1 Establishing the need and consultation Helen Wallace, Kathleen Wood, Anne with key stakeholders in forest policy and Roiko and Peter Waterman (USC) management under climate change. Contribution of Work Package 1 to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment (Wood et al. 2011) 1 The scenarios of climate change: Tools, Richard Warrick (USC and CLIMsystems methods, data and outputs. Ltd) Supplementary Materials of Work Package 1 to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment 2 Biophysical impacts of climate change on Belinda Medlyn and Melanie Zeppel Australia’s forests. Contribution of Work (Macquarie), Tom Lyons, Giles Hardy Package 2 to the Forest Vulnerability Niels Brouwers, Kay Howard, Emer Assessment O’Gara, Li Li and Bradley Evans (Medlyn et al. 2011) (Murdoch)

3 Socio-economic implications of climate Geoff Cockfield and Tek Maraseni change with regard to forests and forest (USQ), Laurie Buys and Jeffrey management. Contribution of Work Sommerfeld (QUT), Clevo Wilson and Package 3 to the Forest Vulnerability Wasantha Athukorala (QUT) Assessment (Cockfield et al. 2011) 4 Climate change adaptation options, tools Steve Turton and Robyn Wilson (JCU) and vulnerability. Contribution of Work Package 4 to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment (This report) 5 An assessment of the vulnerability of Sarah Boulter (GU & NCCARF), Roger Australian forests to the impacts of Kitching (GU), Frank Stadler (NCCARF) climate change (Boulter et al. 2011) 5 An assessment of the vulnerability of Douglas E. Fisher (QUT) Australian forests to the impacts of climate Change. Supplementary Material: Forest resources, climate change and the law .

1.2 Definition of forests and forest uses for the purpose of the project The scope of the project is largely set by the definition of forests used. We adopted the definition in the 2008 Australia’s State of the Forests Report (SOFR) (Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia 2008). This definition includes both native forests and

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 5 plantations:

A FOREST is an area, incorporating all living and non-living components, that is dominated by trees having usually a single stem and a mature or potentially mature stand height exceeding two metres and with existing or potential crown cover of overstorey strata about equal to or greater than 20%. This includes Australia’s diverse native forests and plantations, regardless of age. It is also sufficiently broad to encompass areas of trees that are sometimes described as woodlands.

Based on this definition, the assessment includes a large part of Australia’s mallee ecosystems (defined as dominated by multi-stemmed eucalypts - any one of about 25 species depending upon location) and encompasses very large areas of tropical savannah and woodland (also referred to as rangelands), where trees are spread out in a more open landscape and grazing is the predominant landuse. Inter-tidal, salt tolerant forests, often referred to as mangroves, also fall within this definition of forests. What many people would traditionally regard as forests – expanses of tall, closely spaced trees – are a relatively small part of the country’s total forest estate.

Australia’s forests are dominated by eucalypt forests (including the genera Eucalyptus, Corymbia and Angophora) and acacia forests making up about 89% of all native forest types (see Table 3). Both these forest types support an enormous diversity of species with over 700 eucalypt species and almost 1000 Acacia species (Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia 2008) as well as other plant species. Other important forest types cover smaller areas. These include rainforest, as well as Melaleuca wetlands and mangroves.

The SOFR 2008 report also used the National Forest Policy Statement (Commonwealth of Australia 1992) definition of plantations: Intensively managed stands of trees of either native or exotic species created by the regular placement of seedlings or seeds which has also been adopted for the Forest Vulnerability Assessment.

In summary, Australia's forests are a continuum of large-scale industrial plantations at one extreme and native forests (including mallee, savannah, woodland and mangroves) at the other. In order to place the Australian forest estate firmly into a management context, we superimpose a set of forest type categories, reflecting the way forests are used: • Plantation or farm forests • Productive native forests • Conservation native forests • Environme ntal plantings

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 6 Table 2: Total area (‘000 hectares) under three of the four categories of forest type used in this report including the percentage of Australia’s total area under each type. The coverage of environmental plantings has not been quantified. Source: Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia (2008) % of Forest Type ACT NSW NT QLD SA Tas Vic WA Aus forest area Plantation/farm 10 345 26 233 172 248 396 389 1818 1 forests Productive 5 21060 30994 48005 4826 1996 4332 13797 125052 83 native forests Conservation 108 5148 16 4576 4029 1121 3505 3868 22371 16 native forests Total forest 133 26553 31036 52814 9024 3364 8233 18054 149215 100

Table 3 Important vegetation types and their representation in the Australian forest conservation estate. Forest Area Portion of Description vegetation (‘000 ha) forest type type in conservati on area (%) Acacia 10,365 5 Australia’s second most common forest type; predominantly woodlands (average annual rainfall <750mm); can form open forests in wetter areas; found in all states and the Northern Territory; Mulga (Acacia aneura) dominant species in arid and semi-arid zone; Brigalow (A. harpophylla) widespread in Queensland and northern New South Wales. Callitris 2,597 8 Found in a wide variety of climates; tolerant of temperatures ranging from below 0°C to more than 40°C; areas of annual rainfall > 300 mm, but can be as low as 200 mm; wide range of soil types, but commonly nutrient-poor soils associated with mycorrhiza. Casuarina 2,229 39 Woodlands or open forests; all states and territories of Australia; semi-arid zone; coastal areas; Belah (Casuarina cristata) forests have the widest distribution; Belah and river she-oak (C. cunninghamiana) common inland; Coast she-oak (C. equisetifolia), rock she-oak (Allocasuarina huegeliana) and drooping she-oak (A. verticillata) form pure stands. Eucalypt 116,449 18 Three genera – Eucalyptus, Corymbia and Angophora – are usually referred to as eucalypts; found throughout Australia except in the most arid regions; variety of dominant structures. Mangroves 980 18 Mangroves are important and widespread coastal ecosystems in the intertidal zone of tropical, subtropical and protected temperate coastal rivers, estuaries and bays. Can form dense, almost impenetrable stands of closed forests providing coastal protection from storm and wave action.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 7 Forest Area Portion of Description vegetation (‘000 ha) forest type type in conservati on area (%) Melaleuca 7,556 11 There are hundreds of species in the genus Melaleuca and many other species in closely related genera, such as Callistemon. About 75% of Australia’s melaleuca forest occurs in Queensland, particularly on Cape York Peninsula. Rainforest 3,280 55 ‘Rainforest’ is a general term for a range of broad- leaved forest communities with closed canopies; do not depend on fire for their regeneration; account for most (77%) of Australia’s closed crown cover forest; extend across the top of northern Australia from the Kimberley to Cape York and down the east coast to the cool temperate zone in Tasmania.

Plantation/farm forests

In this category are those planted forests which are destined to be harvested for economic benefit at some time in the future. They include major broad-acre plantings of exotic species such as pines as well as smaller farm forestry plantings utilising a variety of species from construction to cabinet timbers. In the 2010 National Forest Inventory update (Gavran and Parsons 2010), there were a reported 2.02 million hectares of plantations of which 1.02 million hectares was pine (softwood) and 0.99 million hectares of hardwoods of various species and mixtures. This is an increase of 49 658 hectares of new plantations from that reported in the 2008 State of the Forests Report (Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia 2008). The area of plantation estate in Australia has continued to expand, with planting of hardwoods the greatest area of expansion (from 29% of all plantations in 1999 to 49% in 2009). There are several regions of plantation activity (Figure 1) with the largest proportion of the national estate being in Victoria and Western Australia. The majority of plantations are privately owned (62%). One-third are publicly owned and a further 5% are jointly owned (Gavran and Parsons 2010).

Productive native forests

Under this category we include those naturally occurring forests which may be periodically harvested for timber or other forest products or used for other agricultural purposes while retaining the essential ecological characteristics of their undisturbed predecessor forests. Therefore, ‘productive’ refers to the narrow economic use of forest resources such as timber, for example. In contrast, the much broader ecological understanding of productivity is applied to all ecological systems. Of the 149 million hectares of forest in Australia, 147 million hectares are native forest (Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia 2008). Under the Montreal

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 8 Process definition, native forests available for harvesting (wood and non-wood products) are defined as “those native forests in which harvesting is not illegal” and some 112 million hectares or three-quarters of Australia’s native forests were classified as not legally (in a strict sense) excluded from timber harvesting or tree clearing in the 2008 State of the Forests Report, (Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia 2008). Only forests in nature conservation reserves are specifically excluded from tree removal. For the purposes of the FVA, we have categorised those forests in which “harvesting is not illegal” as productive native forests. In practice, however, very little of this area is currently used for timber supply, with more than half (65 million hectares) being leasehold land used for grazing. In addition, in Queensland and New South Wales the clearing of vegetation is controlled legislatively (Vegetation Management Act Qld 1999 and Native Vegetation Act NSW 2003) with permits required for tree clearing and areas under remnant vegetation in “endangered” or “of concern” or “threatened” categories prohibited from tree clearing but available for other land uses such as grazing. Productive native forests, as defined here, are represented by three tenure types – multiple-use public forests, leasehold and freehold (private) lands. Harvesting of native forests is largely restricted to multiple-use public forests with some contribution from leasehold and private lands. There is relatively limited commercial harvesting of native forests in the Northern Territory and none in South Australia or the Australian Capital Territory (Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia 2008). The Queensland government has signalled its intention to phase out native forest harvesting in favour of hardwood plantation development (Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia 2008) with the South-East Queensland Forests Agreement providing for the ending of timber harvesting in native State forests and timber reserves in the South East Queensland Bioregion by 2024. Although wood products can be harvested from native forests on private land, this is distinguished from farm forestry, in which seed or seedlings are purposefully planted for future harvest. Much of the land that can be classified as productive native forests makes up the arid area of Australia commonly referred to as “the rangelands”. The rangelands are those areas where the rainfall is too low or unreliable and the soils too poor to support regular cropping (Bastin and ACRIS Management Committee 2008). The area traditionally defined as rangelands includes savannah, woodlands, shrublands and wetlands that fall under the definition of forest used in this assessment. The primary use of these areas is grazing, with the trees or forests providing services such as shade and shelter, nutrient input, salinity control, biodiversity and amenity rather than any harvestable product.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 9

Figure 1: Major Australian plantation regions. The percentage area each region makes up of the national estate is shown in brackets. Source: Bureau of Rural Sciences

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 10 Conservation native forests

Native forests on which no harvesting is legally permitted and over which conservation controls are in force are defined here as conservation native forests. This includes the many categories of forest reserves designated to serve as areas for the maintenance of environmental quality, biodiversity conservation and/or tourism. In some states this also includes forests designated as ‘wilderness’. Forests in nature conservation reserves are located around Australia and cover a broad range of vegetation types. Australia has 22.37 million hectares of nature conservation reserve (Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia 2008).

Environmental plantings

This last category encompasses artificially constructed forests with a diverse set of roles from restoration and maintenance of environmental health to provision of shelter belts, biodiversity corridors, erosion control or amenity. Amenity plantings are for human enjoyment and comfort and seek to provide shade, screening and windbreaks. Amenity plantings may also be used along roadsides.

Ecological plantings use species local to an area (indigenous species) and provide habitat to native animals. The use of locally indigenous species conserves the character of a region both biologically and visually.

Environmental plantings may also be established for the purpose of carbon sequestration (carbon offsets) and the management of soil salinity. Environmental plantings can serve a number of these purposes simultaneously.

1.3 Classifying Australia’s forests In addition to the forest use classification introduced earlier, the FVA applied a second layer of landscape classification using the 10 zones (Figure 2) proposed by Hobbs and McIntyre (2005). These zones were developed using both climate and vegetation. Climate was based on an agro-climatic classif cation incorporating a moisture index, growth index and seasonality. The climate classes were aligned to the existing Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation for Australia (IBRA) bioregions (Environment Australia 2000). Vegetation was broadly classif ed on the presence or absence of a tree layer and whether the understorey was grassy or shrub-dominated. A more extended discussion of these overlapping concepts of forest classification and their role in evaluating likely impacts and adaptation strategies is given in the FVA Synthesis.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 11

Figure 2: Agro-climatic biomes developed by Hobbs and McIntyre (2005) and used here as a framework to assess the regional impact of climate change on Australia’s forests

1.4 Climate change projections and scenario modelling

Actions to mitigate and adapt to ongoing climate change rely on modelling to predict how the climate will respond to changing atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases. There are four main areas of uncertainty in climate models (Steffen et al. 2009): • The projected rate of production of greenhouse gases (emissions scenarios, see below) • The relationship between the rate of greenhouse gas emissions and their atmospheric concentrations • The rate and magnitude of the global warming for a given change in concentration in greenhouse gases • Identifying region to region differences within global climate change scenarios.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 12 It is difficult, if not impossible, to predict the amount of greenhouse gases that will be emitted in the future. The IPCC, the principal organisation assessing, synthesising and reporting on climate change literature, have developed four major emission scenarios (Box 1).

Economic Emphasis A1 storyline A2 storyline World: market-oriented World: differentiated Economy: fastest per capita growth Economy: regionally oriented; lowest Population: 2050 peak, then decline per capita growth Governance: strong regional Population: continuously increasing interactions; income convergence Governance: self-reliance with Technology: three scenario groups: preservation of local identities Regional Emphasis Global Integration A1FI: fossil intensive Technology: slowest and most A1T: non-fossil energy sources fragmented development A1B: balanced across all sources B1 storyline B2 storyline World: convergent World: local solutions Economy: service and information Economy: intermediate growth based; lower growth than A1 Population: continuously increasing Population: same as A1 at lower rate than A2 Governance: global solutions to Governance: local and regional economic, social and environmental solutions to environmental protection sustainability and social equity Technology: clean and resource- Technology: more rapid than A2; efficient less rapid, more diverse than A1/B1

Environmental Emphasis

Box 1: Summary characteristics of the four IPCC SRES emissions scenarios (from Carter et al. 2007)

Projections of climate change vary among models. For the purpose of the Forest Vulnerability Assessment project, it was determined that the working groups would use a single set of climate change projections. The “worst case” A1FI emissions scenario was chosen because current emission trends and climate observations closely track this scenario (Allison et al. 2009). Climate modelling was carried out using the SimCLIM modelling software (Warrick 2009).

To provide the present day baseline, the SimCLIM Model uses observed monthly-mean values of precipitation and mean, maximum and minimum temperature derived from the 1961-1990 baseline period (source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology), interpolated to a 0.25 lat/long grid. For future projections, it includes spatial patterns of change for these same variables from general circulation models (GCMs). In order to capture the four areas of uncertainty already discussed, there are three points within the SimCLIM model where different ranges of data can be selected to capture different levels of uncertainty. They are:

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 13 • Climate sensitivity which determines the magnitude of global warming in response to a given change in greenhouse gas concentrations. • Greenhouse gas emissions which determine the rate of change of greenhouse gas concentrations and associated radiative forcing (capturing uncertainties 2 and 3 from the Steffen et al., 2009, list – see above). • Spatial patterns of change from general circulation models (GCMs) which determine the regional differences in changes in temperature, precipitation and other climate variables. • For this project the following specifications were applied for all projections: o Climate sensitivity – high o Emission scenario – A1FI (highest future emissions) o General circulation model – the median value of an ensemble of 21 equally weighted GCMs

Two time horizons were selected for the project, 2030 and 2070, to provide a mid- and long-term scenario in each case. Projections were made for annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall (all seasons for the southern half of Australia and wet and dry seasons for northern Australia), February maximum temperatures, days over 35ºC and days over 40ºC and frost days (days with minimums less than 0ºC). A full description of the SimCLIM methods and a complete set of mapped projections is provided in both Work Package 1 (Wood et al. 2011 ) and the FVA Synthesis Report (Boulter et al. 2011)

1.5 Projected changes in climate factors Under current climate change projections there is a high certainty that across Australia temperatures are likely to rise in response to global increases in CO2 (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2007; IPCC 2007; and Wood et al. 2010). Annual rainfall patterns and moisture availability are likely to change, but a general trend of increases or decreases is less clear and is mainly dependent on location.

The key climate-related changes that will most likely have an effect on forest system functioning in Australia are summarised below.

Atmospheric CO2 concentration: The atmospheric CO2 concentration is currently 380 ppm; estimates for the year 2099 range from 600 ppm under a low-emission scenario, up to 1100 ppm under a high- emission scenario (Sitch et al. 2008).

Temperature: Maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase in all regions and seasons. By 2030, increases of approximately 1ºC are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in inland Australia. By 2070, increases of as much as 4ºC could occur.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 14 Extreme hot days: Increases in the number of extreme hot days are expected. By 2070, large areas of interior Australia in particular would be facing average daytime temperatures in February in excess of 39ºC.

Snow and frost: Duration and occurrence will likely decrease across Australia.

Precipitation: There is considerable uncertainty around future trends. Current best estimates of annual precipitation change indicate possible increases or little change in the far north and decreases of 2% to 5% elsewhere. There could also be changes in seasonality. In Northern Australia, projections indicate that the wet season will get wetter and the dry season drier. In southern Australia, widespread decreases in rainfall are likely to occur during winter and spring. The west and southern coasts are likely to show decreases in rainfall in all seasons.

Storms: More severe and/or frequent storms are projected, including an increased occurrence of damaging hail and windstorms. Rainfall intensity is also likely to increase, which may lead to more flooding.

Potential evapotranspiration: Annual potential evapotranspiration is currently projected to increase across Australia. Best estimate projections reported by CSIRO (2007) are for an increase in potential evaporation of 6% in the south and west, and 10% in the north and east, under the A1FI scenario by 2070. However, new research demonstrating non-stationarity in other climate variables affecting the process of evaporation, particularly wind speed (see Roderick and Farquhar, 2004, McVicar et al., 2008, Donohue et al., 2010) suggests that these projections need to be re-modelled using all the forcing meteorological variables (net radiation, vapour pressure, wind speed and air temperature).

Droughts: With decreasing rainfall, increasing potential evapotranspiration and higher temperatures, drought occurrence is projected to increase over most areas, but particularly in southwest Australia.

2 Objectives of this report

1. To review the adaptation options including planning and management strategies and mechanisms used to deal with both climatic variability and climate change in the forestry sector, including human perceptions of climate change by stakeholders in the sector; 2. To identify and review the current availability of tools and guidance used to inform planning and policy for climate change adaptation by forest managers in government, business and NRM sectors; and 3. To identify the particularly vulnerable forests or regions on the basis of both potential impact and adaptive capacity.

3 Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity

Australia has an estimated 149 million hectares of forest. This represents the sixth-largest forest estate in the world. Most is native forest which consists of 147 million hectares and is dominated by eucalypts (79%) and acacia (7%). The remaining 1.82 million hectares is plantation forest. The forest estate is

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 15 primarily privately managed (77%). Native forests in conservation reserves comprise approximately 23 million hectares of the forest estate, and public multiple-use native forests which are used for wood production about 9.4 million hectares (http://adl.brs.gov.au/forestsaustralia). Box 2 provided a summary of definitions used throughout this report and Figure 3 provides a conceptual framework for understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the forestry sector to climate change. Within this model the potential impact of climate change on current forest activities (e.g. production, conservation, etc) depends on both the magnitude of climate change in the particular location (exposure: e.g. percentage change in rainfall) and how strongly each unit change in climate impacts that activity (sensitivity: e.g. the change in forest enterprise income for each 1% change in rainfall) (Figure 3). However, since forest managers are likely to take actions in response to these changes (adaptation), the potential impacts are likely to be modified through their actions. Their adaptive capacity (Figure 3) will be a function of the operating context of the forest system, the knowledge and options of the forestry sector and individual capability. Finally, the vulnerability of communities and forestry enterprises (private and public) to climate change is dependent not just on the potential biophysical impacts (see WP2) but also on the way people respond and their potential to minimise any adverse impacts. In this regard, planned adaptation is particularly important as a means of minimising vulnerability (Figure 3).

Box 2: Definitions of terms used in this report. Forest is an area, incorporating all living and non-living components, that is dominated by trees having usually a single stem and a mature or potentially mature stand height exceeding two metres and with existing or potential crown cover of overstorey strata about equal to or greater than 20%. This includes Australia’s diverse native forests and plantations, regardless of age. It is also sufficiently broad to encompass areas of trees that are sometimes described as woodlands. (Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia 2008) Plantations are intensively managed stands of trees of either native or exotic species created by the regular placement of seedlings or seeds. (Commonwealth of Australia 1992) Adaptation to climate change ‘is the adjustment, in natural or human systems, in response to actual or expected climatic changes or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities’ (Pittock 2003). Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory, autonomous and planned adaptation Fankhauser, S., Smith, J.B., Tol, R.S.J., 1999;Smit et al. 2000; Easterling et al. 2007 in IPCC WPII 2007): • Anticipatory – adaptation that takes place before the impacts of climate change are observed. • Autonomous – ‘automatic responses that every system generates to respond to a stimulus. For example, plants react to temperature changes by increasing or decreasing their transpiration’ (Robledo and Forner 2005). Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to the impacts of climate change, but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems (Easterling et al. 2007). For example, change in time of seedling development in response to climate change in a native forest (autonomous adaptation) and assisted migration (planned adaptation). • Planned adaptation – is adaptation that is the result of deliberate policy decision, based on awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state. Planned adaptation measures are conscious policy options or response strategies, often multi- sectoral in nature, aimed at altering the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems of facilitating specific adaptations. For example deliberate crops selection and distribution strategies across different agriclimatic zones, substitution of new crops for old ones and resource substitution induced by scarcity (Easterling et al. 2007). Mitchell and Tanner (2006) defined adaptation as actions based on an understanding of how individuals, groups and natural systems can prepare for and respond to changes in climate or their environment. … it is crucial to reducing vulnerability to climate change. While mitigation tackles the causes of climate change, adaptation tackles the effects of the phenomenon. Climate mitigation is “an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.”

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 16 (http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/climate-mitigation-and-adaptation.html). Forests are of critical importance in mitigation for their role in sequestering carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. They are the major terrestrial carbon sink which absorbs approximately 30% of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic activities including the burning of fossil fuels and net deforestation (Canadell and Raupach 2008b). They are also important as carbon reservoirs, storing more than double the amount of carbon in the atmosphere (Canadell and Raupach 2008b), making their management of prime importance in adapting to and mitigating against negative effects of climate change. Vulnerability is defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007.) as ‘a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity’. The association of these attributes to vulnerability have been illustrated by Schroter and ATEAM- Consortium (2004), and modified in Figure 3 to include ‘planned adaptation’. The inclusion of ‘exposure’ in the model has been used differently by different authors (Gallopin 2006). In this study we have attempted to identify exposure as separate from sensitivity as portratyed below but to focus on sensitivity and adaptive capacity as emerging concerns Smith et al. 2008) . Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or cope with the consequences. Adaptive capacity of a system is its capacity to change in a way that makes it better equipped to deal with potential impacts (Figure 3). It is affected by the things you do to increase the coping range. The capacity to adapt varies considerably among regions, countries and socioeconomic groups and will vary over time. For society, it is related to the level of attachment and sense of place people have for a region and the activities that they undertake there. The length of residence is often an indicator of place of attachment (pers. com. B. Jorgensen, La Trobe University). Exposure is the degree, duration and/or extent to which a system is likely to be in contact with a perturbation e.g. cyclones, drought, fire (Adger 2006; Gallopin 2006). Defined as the external side of vulnerability (Gallopin 2006). It is influenced by a combination of the probability and magnitude of climate change. Sensitivity is 'the extent to which a human or natural system can absorb impacts without suffering long-term harm or other significant state change' (Adger 2006) i.e. an internal component of vulnerability (Gallopin 2006). It is also defined as the extent to which changes in climate will affect the system in its current form.

Figure 3: A framework for understanding vulnerability of the forestry sector to climate change. Source: Adapted from (Schroter and ATEAM-Consortium 2004).

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 17 4 Methodology

The material reported in this Work Package has been collated from the published and unpublished literature, semi-structured interviews with stakeholders and a social learning workshop with industry, managers, policy makers and researchers. We have also extracted relevant information on vulnerability and adaptive capacity from WP2 (biophysical impacts) and WP3 (socio-economic impacts).

a) Semi-structured interviews Thirty-four semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives from each of the jurisdictions and forest sectors (conservation or plantation and management or policy). A questionnaire was developed in collaboration with WP1 (Appendix 1 and 2) and interviews were shared among both work groups to minimise interviewee fatigue and project costs. In this section we report on questions pertaining to adaptation (Appendix 1, Section 3). We used a 1) state, territory, national approach in our interviews to allow a comparison across jurisdictions in policy approaches, and 2) a conservation versus production approach to investigate differences in social, economic and biophysical options and constraints that are likely to affect their vulnerability to climate change and adaptation strategies.

b) Social learning workshop The aim of the social learning workshop was to explore adaptive capacity, barriers and vulnerability of forests to climate change in Australia. The workshop provided an environment for discussion, clarification of comments from interviews and sharing of knowledge among researchers from different Work Packages, and policy makers and forest managers. In this interactive environment co-learning opportunities evolved where a new level of common understanding was reached regarding the level of knowledge about the types of climate change impacts on the forestry industry. During the two day workshop ‘big picture’ ideas and major concerns for forests with climate change were explored, as was the likely impact of climate change on Australian forests in 2030 and 2070 with no adaptation (worst case scenario) and with adaptation. For this exercise the forests were grouped into five broad categories e.g. northern and southern Australia by extraction or non-extraction, and national.

c) Analysis The framework used in this project for assessing the vulnerability of the Australian forest sector to climate change follows that of the IPCC Working Group II (Smit and Pilifosova 2001). This framework considers exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of forests in Australia to climate change (see Figure 3). A similar framework has been applied to the Canadian forest sector (Johnston and Williamson 2007) and more recently to Australian forestry (Booth et al. 2010). In identifying people for interviews we considered five forest groups: • Native Forest Managers including World Heritage Areas, National Parks and Conservation Reserves • Plantation Industry managers

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 18 • Non Government Organisations (NGOs) • Priv ate Farm Forestry • Researchers and policy analysts

Due to the small number of respondents in some groups and to simplify the initial categorisation, these were collapsed into two broad groups ‘conservation’ and ‘plantation’ for subsequent analysis and reporting. This grouping better reflected that used in the workshop which considered extractive or non- extractive forest sectors. The inclusion of jurisdictions in our interviews enabled us to also consider similarities and differences in northern and southern Australia and to match these to climate modelling. Australian forests in contrast to those in other developed countries encompass both tropical and temperate zones. We consider this by reporting findings by state and jurisdiction. All interviews were coded into NVivo and both queries and matrix analysis were used to sort and analyse the data (see Wood et al. (2010) for further description on process used). NVivo is a qualitative data analysis software package developed by QSR International (http://www.qsrinternational.com/products_nvivo.aspx). Data were considered by domain (conservation or production), jurisdiction and policy or management. Of the 34 interviews, 10 represented the conservation sector, 23 production sector and 1 both. There were 9 from northern Australia, 19 southern Australia and six national. Across jurisdictions by policy and management the following number of interviews were conducted (Table 4).

Table 4: Summary of forestry sector interviews by jurisdiction. Role Jurisdiction Northern Australia Southern Australia NT QLD NSW ACT VIC TAS SA WA National Policy 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 - 1 Management 1 5 - - 1 - 2 1 5 Policy and - 1 - - - 2 1 2 - Management Total 2 7 2 2 4 3 5 3 6

5 Options for adaptation to climate change

A wide range of options for the forestry sector to adapt to climate change have been identified (Innes et al. 2009; Robledo and Forner 2005); Booth et al. 2010). Many of these are generic and are essentially modifications of current practices to manage climate variability and risk. In this section we discuss planning, management strategies and mechanisms used to deal with climate variability and climate change under the following themes: a) Land management (e.g. site selection of reserves and plantation location, vegetated corridors, reduced impact logging, fire, pest and disease, tree spacing)

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 19 b) Specific silvicultural practices (e.g. germplasm selection, facilitating genetic adaptation) c) Social and community skills, knowledge and land value d) Planning e) Adaptation options identified from interviews

Forests across the globe are increasingly being exposed to climate variability, and longer term climate change (Innes et al. 2009). Adaptation options may be generic but others will vary across the landscape depending on geographic region, forest type and human pressures for land. For some regions the impacts may promote growth whereas others are likely to see a loss of forest ecosystems and their services (Seppälä et al. 2009). In Australia conditions for forests will be more challenging with climate change than those in the northern hemisphere, as the continent is already dry with highly variable rainfall from year to year (Booth et al. 2010). In general higher temperatures, increased evaporation and extreme weather events are predicted in Australia with climate change (see WP 1 climate change modelling, Wood et al. 2010). Extreme events such as prolonged droughts and fires may threaten the viability of many of our forest ecosystems as evidenced by the devastating bushfires in Victoria in 2009.

a) Land management Locations where forests can grow in the future may be limited by several factors. These include urban and residential expansion with population growth into arable land, previous human use of land which may make it unsuitable for forestry and the area of land that trees can actually grow on due to climatic conditions (Reilly and Schimmelpfennig 2000). In fact, due to the high cost of land in wetter parts of Australia and perceived environmental benefits of planting trees, forestry is tending to move into drier and poorer areas. Hence, forestry is increasingly moving into environments where trees are becoming more vulnerable to climatic changes (Booth et al. 2010). Bioregional and regional ecosystem mapping (Sattler and Williams 1999) may assist growers in selecting sites and conservationist in making decisions on their selection of protected areas under future climate scenarios. New technologies, particularly in remote sensing (Brown (Viewed on line 2010)), are also evolving that will assist in site selection and onsite management. For example the use of ‘drones’ to monitor vegetation may become part of the toolkit to monitor landscape change and identify land suitable for afforestation or locations to establish certain types of plantation that will cope with climate change. Combined with this is the increase in availability of high-resolution remote sensing imagery to assess habitat quality (Wallace et al, 2006; Youngentob 2009). Vegetated corridors for the purpose of landscape connectivity, to assist flora and fauna movements across the landscape, are not new to ecologists (Norwood 1999). Moreover, their use to benefit forests with climate change has been in practice for some 15 years or so, particularly in relation to the ‘Biolink Zones’ (Mansergh et al. 2008, Steffen et al. 2009). Biolinks have been adopted as an adaptation strategy by the State of Victoria (2009). Several other corridor initiatives have been

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 20 proposed to build landscape resilience to climate change. For example, Wild Country (The Wilderness Society), Gondwana Links (Western Australia), Nature Links (South Australia), Alps to Atherton Tablelands involving Victoria, NSW and Queensland (Parry 2007), and Territory Eco-link (Northern Territory) (Anon. 2009). Reduced impact logging has been suggested as an adaptation to climate change (Guariguata et al. 2008). This strategy will reduce soil disturbance and benefit forestry and the environment by reducing soil loss and weed outbreaks. Hot dry conditions will prevail across most of the Australian continent with climate change (Hennessey et al. 2007; Hennessey et al. 2008). Australian forests have some resilience to such conditions as they adapted to drier conditions in the past (Hilbert 2008). During the Tertiary, when conditions were dry, xeromorphic sclerophyll forests evolved that were adapted to dry conditions, but cooler conditions, and nutrient poor soils (Beard 1990). This type of forest survived the intensification of fire that occurred with the arrival of humans through the survival of more fire-tolerant species such as Eucalyptus (Beard 1990). As a result of this change Australia has species of trees adapted to frequent fires. Fire may be considered to regulate fuel loads and pest species. This may be most effective where fire-resistant species dominate the landscape. Land management practices such as prescribed burning and thinning, that are part of the forest management cycle (Patton 1997), will change in their timing and frequency as management adapts to climate change (Private Forestry Southern Queensland, http://www.privateforestrysthnqld.com.au/). Stressed forests are more prone to disease and may be more vulnerable to intense pest and weed infestations (Ogden and Innes 2009; Booth et al. 2010). As climate changes so too will the environmental conditions such as soil moisture nutrient cycling, affecting growth and health of forests. Confounding this will be changes in the spatial distribution of pests and diseases and a potential increase in them in some regions. Host-pest relationships are relatively well known in temperate regions but little is documented on these relationships in the sub-tropics and tropics (Cock 2003). Management strategies to address threats of disease and pests will differ in different regions but may include using less susceptible tree species, breeding of resistant strains, changing silviculture practices away from monocultures, selection of disease resistant stock and enforcement of biosecurity methods such as restricted movement and buffer zones (Cock 2003; Cole 2005). Sound weed management practices are seen as essential to ensure good early tree growth (Booth et al. 2010). In the dry tropics of north Queensland, where rainfall is variable and highly seasonal, soil conditions are generally poor and local site conditions frequently sub-optimal for growing trees; breeding trials to improve genetic stock of hardwood are being investigated (Dickinson and Lee 2005). New cultivars, such as hybrids of several species of tropical eucalyptus, have performed well overseas (Dickinson and Lee 2005) and are options for climate change adaptation. Similarly, high quality timbers such as mahogany and agroforestry crops such as sandalwood are being considered with trials in progress (Dickinson and Lee 2005). Intensively managed plantation forests have fast growth rates and sequester carbon rapidly

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 21 (Kanowski and Murray 2008; Patton 1997). They have been considered as an adaptation option particularly for degraded agricultural landscapes (Kanowski 2005; Kanowski and Murray 2008). However, their growth depends on prior land use and the processes used for plantation establishment (Kanowski 2005). Concern for this option is that even-aged stands of single tree species have low genetic diversity and hence less resistance to pests and diseases. However, in some regions growth of any type of vegetation will be important in the retention of soil and avoidance of dust storms as most of the continent desiccates with climate change. In south-west Western Australia, foresters have changed land management practices for Eucalyptus globulus plantations in response to declining rainfall (Booth et al. 2010). To reduce the risk of drought death for this fast growing species, they have reduced stocking densities at planting (or through thinning) to increase the amount of soil available for each tree to minimise drought death. In addition, application of nutrients to match supply with demand has maximised growth and water use efficiency of wood production for a given stocking density (Booth et al. 2010). This provides an exemplar of how the forest industry in WA has already adapted to changing climatic conditions.

b) Specific silvicultural practices

Guariguata et al. (2008) and Booth et al. (2010) have identified several silvicultural practices for forestry to adapt to climate change. They include: • Adaptive management with suitable species and silvicultural practices; • Selection at the provenance level and selective breeding; • Changes to planting times, planting densities and general stand management; • Specific silvicultural options aimed at facilitating genetic adaptation; and • Promotion of seed exchange and participatory genetic improvement programs across the industry. In forestry, there are often several different tree species that can provide a similar forest product. By changing or selecting plants or species that show resistance to disease and pests a resistant genotype can be established in the medium to long term. However, replacement trees may also become susceptible to pests and substitution may not be practical (Cock 2003). For some replacement species, for which there is little or no information on pest-host interactions, it may not be desirable to make the substitution for existing commercial species. In these cases, the effort to develop resistant genotyes is probably the best approach. For example mahogany is affected by mahogany shoot borer (Hypsipyla grandella) but it is a sought after timber which has meant research on this pest has continued rather than substituting mahogany by another high quality timber species. Similarly, rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) is the only tree species that can produce rubber with no other species to act as a replacement (Asna and Ho 2003; Cock 2003). Potential resources for forestry to adapt to climate change that have and are being established across Australia are botanical gardens and arboreta. There are numerous botanical gardens and arboreta that have been established throughout the last century (see Directory of Australian Botanic Gardens and Arboreta http://www.dn.com.au/about.html). In general these were not established for

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 22 climate change per se but are now a valuable resource for future introductions, trials or reestablishment of forests across the landscape in the face of climate change. More recently seed banks to safeguard threatened species have been established. For example the Botanic Gardens, Melbourne have established the ‘Victorian Conservation Seedbank’ as part of a worldwide Millennium Seed Bank. Over 4 million seeds from across Victoria have been deposited in the two years of this project (http://www.rbg.vic.gov.au/science/conservation-research/victorian- conservation-seedbank). An arboretum to safeguard native species from threats associated with climate change has been established in the ACT (http://www.cmd.act.gov.au/arboretum). This arboretum was established in response to the catastrophic fires of 2003 that burnt an extensive area of the ACT and destroyed native and plantation forests. It consists of trees, shrubs and herbaceous plants for use in conservation, scientific and education purposes. An important consideration in developing adaptive capacity is access to a range of genetic material for a given species to enable trials to establish which grows best in given conditions. A relatively new arboretum, Currency Creek in South Australia, is focusing on providing genetic diversity by specialising in eucalypt species and closely related species in the genera Angophora and Corymbia (http://www.dn.com.au/about.html). It has established multiple plants from wild collected material to provide coverage of each taxon's phenetic and genetic variation. Some arboreta are maintaining records of their trees including survival, health, growth rates, time to first bud initiation and flowering, and the potential for various uses e.g. Currency Creek, South Australia http://www.dn.com.au/about.html; Tropical Forest Research Centre, Atherton Arboretum http://www.anbg.gov.au/chabg/bg-dir/006.html. Data on life history traits will be valuable material for decision making on future plantings under climate change.

c) Social and community skills, knowledge and land value

Socially there is a diversity of values attributed to forests and many are regionally specific, i.e. the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities is location-specific (Keskitalo 2008; Ogden and Innes 2009). This suggests that decisions and forest policy for climate change need to be regionally or sub-regionally specific. An adaptive strategy enhances community awareness of the impact of climate change and increasing climate variability on forests and potential loss of values, as well as building regional cooperation (water and fire management) and pooling limited physical and human resources (IPCC 2007b). Indigenous knowledge of local forest patterns and associated historical landscapes is a valuable source of information on which to build adaptation strategies for forests with climate change (Ogden and Innes 2009). Aboriginal oral history describes the type and distribution of forests in the Wet Tropics of Queensland in the last 40,000 years and this history has been supported by charcoal and pollen cores in the region that demonstrates change in habitat associated with changing climate in the pre- historical past (Hopkins et al. 1993; Kershaw 1986). Aboriginal cultural and fire-stick management of forests has received little attention in western

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 23 natural resource management and is often perceived to be in conflict with it. However, the two management systems have a common interest in maintenance of species and their communities (Hill et al. 1999). The impact of changed fire management practices, a decline in Aboriginal management practices and un-restricted logging has seen the onset of intense fires in some forests in south-western Australia (Ward et al. 2001). An adaptive option is collaboration and merging of the cultures of forest management and learning from Indigenous historical information to better plan for climate change impacts on forests (so called adaptive co-management). Local Indigenous knowledge has accumulated through trial and error over the millennia. A broader participatory role of local and Indigenous communities in forest management is required to provide insights into local patterns and historical landscapes (Hill et al. 1999). There are several considerations for farm and plantation forestry in adapting to environmental and economic climate change. These include selecting species that will grow in an area, have high productivity, and are wanted by the market. To adapt to changing markets they may also need to consider whether the species they grow are suitable for a range of forest products so they have the ability to adapt to a changing market (Private Forestry Southern Queensland, http://www.privateforestrysthnqld.com.au/). What research has shown is that the inclusion of adaptation measures makes a marked reduction in projected socio-economic impacts of climate change (Gunasekera et al. 2007).

d) Planning

A hierarchical set of adaptation strategies that operate at a national, regional, community and farm level can limit the impacts of climate change and long-term costs of responding (FAO 2007). ”Policies also need to be integrated across the levels and sectors” (FAO viewed online Sept. 2009). “Ecological assessments that consider resistance, resilience, and facilitation actions during scenario planning is a productive first step towards effective climate change planning for biodiversity with broad applicability to many regions of the world” (Galatowitscha et al. 2009). A difficulty for policy developers is adapting to changes in public expectations which may not be in the best interest of forests especially as conditions change and the risk of forest fire increases. Government needs to take public values into account if forest policy is to be acceptable to the community but it also needs to develop policy that will have optimum outcomes for the good of the nation and planet. However, by mainstreaming adaptation into national development for climate change and including the forestry sector in it, adaptation is possible (Guariguata et al. 2008). In order to minimise the risk of forest fire, policy needs to promote good practices for fire management across the landscape (Guariguata et al. 2008). This will require the consideration of the types of forest grown in fire prone areas, their proximity to residential areas and the extent and type of fuel-load. How the public value forests under climate change will depend on the services the forests are seen to provide. Increasing public awareness of the value of forests and the need to enhance the adaptive capacity of forest systems to climate change will require defining practical approaches and

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 24 policies (Guariguata et al. 2008). This will include evaluation of costs and benefits of forestry activities aimed at enhancing adaptive capacity and financial mechanisms underpinning the implementation of such activities (Guariguata et al. 2008). There is therefore an urgent need to undertake further adaptation studies in the forestry sector which include cost/benefit analyses (Booth et al. 2010). The goods and services that forests provide may change with climate change and have negative economic and environmental costs unless adaptation is implemented. Numerous adaptation options that protect ecosystem services provided by forests have been identified (Innes et al. 2009; Robledo and Forner 2005) (Table 5). Most of these are not new approaches but considered part of sustainable land management. It is recognised that the cost of ‘doing nothing’ will be greater in the future than the cost of adaptation which has the potential to make significant reductions in residual costs of climate change. However, appropriate adaptation strategies need to be identified and quantified (EEA Technical Report / No. 13/2007). Table 6 summarises climate change adaptation options and strategies identified in the literature review, both in relation to forest production and conservation. It should be noted that many current changes in management are probably more a response to climate variability than climate change. Moreover, while we can in many cases be confident that temperature changes are climate change related, we cannot be so certain about changes in rainfall.

Table 5: Adaptation options and strategies for climate change impacts affecting environmental (ecosystem) services. Adaptation Option Environmental Service Climate impact targeted Source Adaptive management with Soil and nutrient retention Drought, flood (Reilly and Schimmelpfennig suitable species and 2000) silviculture practices requiring social change Watershed management: Water system regulation Extreme events, torrential (Robledo and Forner 2005) plantations of species with rain likely to cause erosion high regulation capacity Forest enrichment – microclimate Temperature changes, (Robledo and Forner 2005) restoration and rehabilitation extreme events, wind supported with research damage Fire Management Carbon fixation and storage Fire and GHG emissions (Robledo and Forner 2005) Bio-prospecting studies: Conservation of biodiversity Temperature changes, (Robledo and Forner 2005) sustainable management of especially pollination extreme events which may forests – restoration and vectors, seed dispersers, result in changes in rehabilitation pest control ecosystems through habitat and species loss Sustainable plantation Conservation of biodiversity; Rainfall, extreme events, management - self seeding different age classes prone drought to different stresses providing resilience Plantation of species that Soil retention, improved Drought, fire, extreme (Robledo and Forner 2005) hold and trap soils in highly water quality events resulting in erosion of degraded areas soil, landslides, dust storms Minimising the Conserving biodiversity (Ogden and Innes 2009) fragmentation of habitat

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 25 Adaptation Option Environmental Service Climate impact targeted Source Maintaining representative Conserving biodiversity; (Ogden and Innes 2009) forest types opportunities for seed and reestablishment elsewhere Protecting primary forest Conserving biodiversity; (Ogden and Innes 2009) opportunities for seed and reestablishment elsewhere

Table 6: Adaptation options and strategies for dealing with climate change identified in the literature relevant to conservation and/or production. Key to literature: i (Roberts et al. 2009); ii (Galatowitscha et al. 2009); iii (Canadell and Raupach 2008a); iv (Allen Consulting Group 2005); v Ramakrishnan 2007; vi Ogden and Innes 2009; vii Hill, Baird et al. 1999; viii Raish, González-Cabán et al. 2005; ix Cook 2003; x (Fung et al. 2002); xi (Halpin 1997); xii (Rebbeck et al. 2007); xiii (Innes et al. 2009); xiv (Kalame et al. 2009); xv (Booth et al. 2010) Target Adaptation option/strategy Reference production Promote agroforestry; offers direct benefits to landholders by diversifying xii production, improving resilience of land-use practices to environmental change production Planting drought-resistant trees in areas expected to become drier i production Implement agroforestry practices on cultivated land; top prune trees to i strengthen them against extreme wind events such as cyclones; use deep- rooted species to tap moisture during drought conditions production Grow deep rooted perennials – potential to improve water-use efficiencies of xii vegetation, lower water tables, minimize erosion, improve soil carbon inputs, provide shelter and shade for stock production Longer harvesting cycles or reduced disturbance e.g. fires and insect iii outbreaks production Improved technologies to increase efficiency of water use, e.g. planting iv, xv densities, nutrient adjustments production Use tree growth models and permanent sample plot records from existing xv plantations to plan alternative management strategies production Use of reduced impact logging to maintain ecosystem integrity ii production Take climate change into account when planning establishment of new xv plantations, including giving greater weight to more recent climate data production Forest genetic research and tree-breeding programs i production Species and cultivar choice – change in response to climate change iv conservation Development of appropriate governance institutions to manage the transition to iii new sustainable development pathways’ particularly in the tropics conservation Combat stressors and treats to forest such as habitat destruction, i fragmentation and degradation conservation Afforestation in drought and arid areas with Acacia spp. i conservation Expanding reserves that lack adequate environmental heterogeneity ii conservation ii conservation Prioritizing protection of likely climate refuges ii conservation Modifying restoration practices to rely on seeding (not plants) and enlarge ii seed zones conservation Threatened species abatement and recovery plans are an adaptation strategy iv that will benefit species - EPBC Act 1999 conservation Incorporate local forest-related knowledge in decision making and forest i, v, vi, vii, management. Translation and linkage of local knowledge and formal forest viii science. Implement indigenous knowledge in fire management – participatory research and linkage. conservation Develop migratory corridors or relieve other environmental pressures iv conservation and Corridor systems connecting reserves and stepping-stone reserves xi production conservation and Afforestation or reforestation in the tropics i.e. provide more climate benefits iii production (reflection through increase cloud formation) than similar land-change in boreal

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 26 Target Adaptation option/strategy Reference environments conservation and Include common species from nearby southerly or drier locales is a logical low- iii production risk facilitation strategy conservation and Managing forests for multi-species and multi-aged stands iii production conservation and Adaptive management requires ‘simultaneous implementation of alternative i, ix, xv production treatments, such as adaptive measures and policies, in different locations and comparison of results to test hypotheses about the behaviour of complex systems. Policy and management recommendations aimed at integrating adaptation into national forest policies and practices. Promote introduction of climate change adaptation into routine forest management. conservation and Planting trees and harvesting products adapted to local climate conditions i production conservation and Fire prevention and management, including updating fire behaviour prediction ii, xv production systems for a changing fire regime conservation and Tree borders/buffers to protect planted and native forests from weed invasion, ii, ix production including providing buffers for reserves to build resistance to drying climates conservation and Monitor populations at the edge as they are currently been exposed to ix, ii production conditions that will be the norm with climate change. Monitoring “trailing edge” populations of rare species to support decision-making related to assisted colonisation. conservation and Use improved tools to assess risk of weed, pest disease problem under xv production climate change while engaging with all levels of government conservation and Use bioclimatic studies to identify key species in plantations and native forests, xv production already under extreme climatic conditions. Monitor these sites to provide early warning of potential problems conservation and Improve regional level climate change modelling to provide more reliable xv production scenarios to assist decision-making

e) Adaptation options identified from interviews

Respondents identified a number of climate-change adaptation strategies for the forestry sector. Many of these were also reported in the literature (Table 6). Adaptation options identified by the interviews can be broadly grouped under: community engagement, forest land management (including silviculture practices), economic and planning and policy. The key strategies related to community engagement were: • Collaborations - numerous networks among stakeholders were identified • Education - information sharing • Support to engage people with trees and potentially as a communication/engagement campaign • Workshops - social learning exercises • Extension officers - need to increase the numbers • Volunteers - involve local and international volunteers • Corporate days - where organisations involve their staff as volunteers in restoration.

A complete list of adaptation strategies for community engagement in climate change adaptation, identified by respondents, is provided in Appendix 3. Adaptive strategies for forest land management identified from interviews were grouped into the following themes: biophysical, disease, fire, silviculture, site selection, vegetated corridor, water

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 27 management, and weed and pest management. Appendix 4 provides a comprehensive breakdown of strategies identified under these themes. The identified strategies align well with those taken from the literature review (Table 6). However, it should be noted that many of these strategies identified from the interviews are not strictly strategies for adapting to climate change but are essentially strategies for environmental sustainability in a land management context. From the same data set, a selection of climate change adaptation strategies for land management in northern and southern Australia identified by states and territories is summarised in Box 3. The results show expected difference and similarities among states, territories and between northern and southern Australia. Few economic strategies for climate change were identified from the interviews and all were from the forestry production sector (Table 7).

Box 3: Adaptation strategies for forest land management in Australia by State and Territory and national level that deal directly or indirectly with climate change. Northern Australia and Northern Territory • Source material from native forests for biodiversity benefits for plantations • Proactive biosecurity • Biological control of nematodes • Monitor and change stocking production • Select wind-tolerant species

Queensland • Biodiversity protection achieved through compliance with code of practice for Native Forest Timber Production 2007 • Conduct plantings in the wettest part of the year, water them and add a wetting agent • Conduct control burns in cooler months • Collaborative arrangements with other agencies • Vegetated corridors linking the landscape

Southern Australia • Create landscape scale corridors • Identify the coping range of species and locations where these conditions will occur in the future • Produce different genetics for different climates • Network of corridors through various biogeographic regions by planting or encouraging trees and vegetation to form movement corridors • Monitor phenology and redistribution of species and use to guide restoration • Use translocation within provenances to enrich areas • Develop a biodiversity credits system so land can be evaluated on its contribution to biodiversity • Systematic broad scale monitoring of ecosystems and how the coupling of the systems is tracking over time • Select varieties resistant to certain diseases and pests • Back burn for fire protection • Site selection closer to coast where rainfall is higher and temperatures are cooler • Weeds and pests - cooperation and co-sharing management with neighbours at farm scale

Victoria • Restoration using maximum biodiversity • Change species and select disease resistant species • Change species to those that are more drought tolerant • Weeds - graze plantations to control increase in weeds with climate change • Weeds – scrape off top 5-7 cm soil and direct seed into substrate • Weeds - use weed matt or manual control and minimum tillage • Vegetated corridors linking the landscape

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 28 • Landscape techniques, row direction, to better use and conserve water • Not to plant where there is no soil moisture

Tasmania • Establish seed orchards • Collect seeds across a wide range of genetic diversity for seed banks • Plant in pasture for biodiversity benefits • Research into difference in wildfire and regeneration burns • Consider different landscape design • Select a range of genetic material

Australian Capital Territory • Arboreta for conservation, scientific and educational use • ‘Seeds for survival’ project • Reintroductions of local forest species into grassy woodlands • Natural regeneration of softwood plantations with locally adapted native vegetation (based on extensive community consultation and decision) • Forestry department staff skills redirected to the management of native vegetation (established) • Biodiversity plantings for functional ecosystems • Retaining material in plantings • Planting lower tree canopy species in first stage along with a scattering of high canopy species • Genetic modification of plant species or breeding different stronger species or varieties that respond to climate change

Western Australia • Seed centre for seeds collected across the state for future restoration • Keep up with fuel reduction burns and adjust the timing of burns to suit conditions • Adjusting sustainable timber harvest • Investigate ways of storing moisture to be able to get the trees through drought

National • Incorporating offsets and reserves to maintain biodiversity where land is cleared for plantations • Greater intervention in fire prevention • Changing species and changing harvest times • Site selection –moving location of forests if that is possible • Counter weed invasion in gaps by planning with counter crops or grazing

Table 7: Economic strategies identified from interviews. Domain Jurisdiction Stakeholder comment Production Northern Relocate assets to northern Australia because of issues around Territory climate change in the south Production National • Need to minimise distance to port likely to be exacerbated by climate change • Need to minimise distance to processing likely to be exacerbated by climate change • Increase the amount of onsite processing

Adaptation strategies for planning and policy for forestry include interpreting and implementing research into policy, creating integrated fire management plans with a whole of community input, and regional forest agreements for all states and regions where forests grow. Adaptation strategies also included

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 29 identifying and addressing conflicting priorities, and developing codes of practice that addresses climate change impacts on forests and modelling where trees could potentially be planted and be productive in the landscape under future climate change scenarios (for details see Appendix 5). Several of the respondents commented on the carbon pollution reduction scheme which is not dealt with in our adaptation strategies as it is a mitigation strategy. However, a comment from one respondent summarises the current industry perception in relation to climate change: “…it is about how forestry is treated within the carbon pollution reduction scheme, how forestry can contribute to climate change adaptation but particularly in the agricultural context.”

6 Tools and guidance used to inform planning and policy for climate change adaptation

Tools for forestry to adapt to climate change were considered under the following themes: a) Biophysical tools –forest measurement tools (estimate biomass), procedural (as in biosecurity approaches to pest and disease), scenario/computer modelling and technology; b) So cio-economic tools; c) Policy tools (ACTS, legislation, Forest Management Agreements, water allocation); and d) Stakeholder knowledge and use of tools and guidance.

a) Biophysical tools On-ground monitoring and modelling tools used in private forestry that will continue to be part of the tool kit to respond to climate change adaptation include: The use of fire, thinning, and other management activities used in a forest management cycle, combined with monitoring of biomass and health of forest using measurement tools consisting of a series of spreadsheets to record the inventory, calculate stand volume, tree log volume, area calculation, tree basal area, stems per hectare, estimate small end diameter under bark (SEDU D) (Private Forestry Southern Queensland; http://www.privateforestrysthnqld.com.au/harvest).

• A Tropical Rainforest Growth (TRG) Model is available to estimate forest biomass and has been used to compare biomass of rainforest and commercial timber crops (Nightingale et al. 2008). This model accounts for both old-growth rainforest and forest regeneration from seedlings in response to human-induced and natural disturbances. ”It is an advanced modelling tool providing a rapid process-based assessment of biomass stocks and accumulation dynamics” (Nightingale et al. 2008) (Refer to WP2). • ‘Artificial neural network’ is a tool to characterise the relative suitability of environments for different forest types in a complex vegetation mosaic, such as that of tropical native forests (Hilbert and Van Den Muyzenberg 1999)

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 30 • Several tools are used to monitor weeds. The first model of this type was the BIOCLIM model developed in Australia (e.g. Busby 1991). More sophisticated models used to assess the potential distribution and relative abundance of weeds and other pests include: CLIMEX, MaxEnt and BIOMOD CLIMEX has been used to model the impact of climate change on ‘sleeper’ and ‘alert’ weeds in Australia (Scott et al. 2008) and weed invasion by Miconia calvescens (Csurhes 2008); MaxEnt ”to provide a strategic overview of a large portion of the 450 highly invasive species” in Australia under warmer conditions (Wilson et al. 2009), and BIOMED to predict distributions of trees in Europe (Thuiller 2003). The performance of the latter was compared to four other models Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and found good agreement between observed and predicted distributions. However, the ”relative performance of different techniques was idiosyncratic across species” and slight differences between ”current predictions from different modelling techniques were exacerbated in future projections” suggesting ”it would be more reliable to use a framework assessing different models for each species and selecting the most accurate one using both evaluation methods and expert knowledge” (Thuiller 2003). (WP2 - Medlyn, et al 2010). • Property management plans (PMP) are required by banks for loans and mortgages and are a tool that could be used in climate change assessments. There are numerous GIS programs that have been developed to assist land managers to develop their PMP. Examples, include: ƒ Phoenix (financial management software, AGDATA), ƒ Farm Works (http://www.farmworks.com.au/), ƒ Farm Map (http://www.psystems.com.au/farmmap-1012.html) • Farm Keeper (http://www.farmkeeper.com.au) software has been developed by farmers for use at the property level. They are generally simple applications that can be used to map farms, keep records and plan for the future. Large companies tend to use ESRI or MapInfo (now Pitney Bowes). Although these are used widely in Australia their application is limited by our knowledge of soils and waterways which is often not at an appropriate scale for the decisions that need to be made (pers. comm. Blakeney GIS manager, Terrain, 23 Oct. 2009). These programs do allow farmers to build their property management plans and to manage change but there is currently no database to determine carrying capacities although this is being addressed (pers. comm. Blakeney GIS Manager, Terrain, 23 Oct. 2009). • FULLCAM is a National Carbon Accounting Model (NCAS). This tool is primarily for mitigation to track greenhouse gas emission and carbon stock associated with land use and management (Richards et al. 2005). However, it has benefits for planned adaptation, in that it allows modelling of growth and biomass under changed human-induced land use practices. The forecasting component of this model may be used to assist in planning and

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 31 managing forests in Australia under climate change but cannot be used to forecast climate change impacts. It also has potential socio-economic benefits as a tool for training and education for modelling change. • Scenario planning is being used as a tool to develop responses to climate change (Galatowitscha et al. 2009; Guariguata et al. 2008; Ogden and Innes 2009). Its use needs to be broad enough to support decision making (Galatowitscha et al. 2009) but of a scale relevant to forests and growers. • Tools for forest pest management have potential for applications in a climate change context. Australia is relatively free of serious forest pests due to its geographic isolation, rigorous quarantine procedures, rapid response procedures and the fact that most plantation forest industries are based on ‘exotic germplasm’ (Cole 2005). The procedures in place and experience in responding to exotic invasion provides resilience to new incursions. Successful response frameworks have several characteristics in common including early detection and confinement, effective mechanisms for controlling movement, poor adaptation of pest to its new environment (edge of range), lack of genetic variability in the pest population and no behavioural changes, host or habitat specificity, sensitive monitoring techniques for high and low population densities, follow-up for secondary spread, cost-effective control methods justified by cost-benefit analysis, public conviction that the pest has potential economic impact and an effective awareness campaign (Cole 2005). • Tools for dealing with diseases, such as Puccinia psidii include preventative measures such as quarantine restrictions, fungicides in nurseries and clonal hedge planting, biological control agents and breeding resistant species (Glen et al. 2007) – P. psidii threatens about 1400 indigenous Australian spp. • High-resolution imagery and ‘drones’ (unmanned aerial vehicles UVA’s) for remote sensing are emerging technology to assist in making informed decisions about site selection and emerging threats to plantations and native forests (pers. comm. David Gilleson). (Felderhof et al. 2008).

b) Socio-economic tools

These encompass tools used for modelling the impacts of climate change on natural and human resources at a broader level and those specific to the forestry sector. At a global level a 10 to 15 year timeframe has been agreed to for the international community to mobilise global financial support and implement long-term adaptation plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation in agriculture, forestry and fisheries primarily for least developed countries. Most of the least developed countries have a National Adaptation Program of Action (FAO 2007). Many of these plans have “adaptation measures that involve early warning systems to identify climate change ‘hot spots’ and disaster risk management, rural investment strategies to reduce the long-term effects of short-term climate variability, and…incentives that encourage farmers to adopt better agricultural and

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 32 land use practices” (FAO 2007). Some economic tools identified from the literature and from WP3 include: • Weather-based index insurance: this is a relatively new approach being implemented in least developed countries. It links insurance payouts to objective, measurable variables such as rainfall or temperature. It is the primary strategy for climate change adaptation in Malawi where drought is a major threat to crops (www.microinsurancecentre.org). • Weather derivatives contracts: this approach pays cash if the weather reaches a selected level of heat, cold, rain or drought. These are to be made available over the internet for small companies, but have been used in the USA by large companies such as electric utilities for a decade. • Diversification and change in structure of industry: Forest Enterprise Australia (FEA) is restructuring so their income generated from plantation forestry scheme is reduced with a higher investment in timber milling and sales (http:www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/01/2614134). • Carbon Tax: the first countries to introduce a carbon tax were Finland (1990), Sweden (1991) and Denmark. France released a new carbon tax in September 2009 which is geared to be implemented in 2010. However it was rejected by parliament in March, 2010. • Carbon Emissions Trading (ET): the UK is the first country to implement a carbon emissions trading scheme which was launched by Defra in April 2002. The EU carbon ET commenced in January 2005 with the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. (http://www.carbontrust.co.uk). Problems with the EU ETS have been associated with the cashing in of ETS carbon credits that were obtained free by steelmakers and hedge funds leading to a steep decline in the price of carbon (Macalister 2009). Total economic value (TEV) provides the main framework for identifying the range of forest socio- economic costs and benefits of climate change (see WP3, Cockfield et al. 2010). Applying TEV to the impacts of climate change on Australian forests allows for assessment of both use and non-use values of forests, ranging from forest goods and services that can be consumed directly (e.g. timber values) to value of knowledge of continued existence (e.g. biodiversity values). The TEV framework has potential as a method for assessing the use and non-use costs and benefits of climate change adaptation on native forests and plantations.

c) Policy tools

At a ‘planned adaptation’ level policy needs to provide the framework by which climate change adaptation is developed and implemented. The components that need to be considered in the framework are planning, legal and institutional arrangements, nature of the forest sector, ecosystem elements and linkages of climate change adaptation processes and technologies. Element of these components to form a tool kit are (adapted from FAO 2007): • Planning: risk assessment and monitoring, analysis and strategy formulation.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 33 • Legal and institutional: decision making, institutional mechanisms, legislation, tenure and ownership, regulatory tools, legal principles, governance and coordination arrangement, resource allocation and community networks. • Forest sector: growing season, species suitability, integrated growing practices (trees- grazing) silvo-pastoral, non-timber products, agroforestry, water management, land use planning, soil fertility, soil organisms. • Ecosystem elements: species composition (native and conservation forests), biodiversity, resilience, ecosystem goods and services. • Linkages: those that promote carbon sequestration, substitution of fossil fuels and promotion of bioenergy, economic diversification.

At a national level there are several environmentally focused action plans and acts that concern forestry and include climate change. For example, the National Agriculture and Climate Change Action Plan (NRMMC 2006), the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, Plantations for Australia: 2020 Vision and the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservations ACT 1999. In the latter climate change is listed as a key threatening process. Additionally, there are policy documents into which climate change is gradually being mainstreamed such as the National Forest Policy Statement (NFPS, 1992) and the Regional Forest Agreements. The National Forest Policy Statement (NFPS, 1992) for Australian forests was developed by the Commonwealth for the management of public and private forests for all Australians. It considers both the conservation values and the contribution that forest-based activities make to the national economy, and regional and local employment, but it is not a climate change document (http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/publications/nfp-statement). Regional Forest Agreements (RFAs) for all states and territories are considered desirable to safeguard regional biodiversity, old-growth forests and other natural and cultural values. RFAs are in place in the following states, NSW, VIC, WA and Tasmania. These RFAs are modelled on the values of the NFPS and seek to provide a balance between conservation and ecological sustainable use of forest resources in the future (http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa). Like the NFPS they do not consider adaptation to climate change as a separate issue but have embedded in them strategies to address climate change impacts. Plantations for Australia: the 2020 Vision was launched in 1997 and revised in 2002. It was developed as a plan for the sustainable increase in Australia’s plantations and involved a partnership with the Commonwealth, state and territory governments and plantation timber growing and processing industries (http://www.daff.gov.au/forestry/plantation-farm-forestry/2020). The strategy was to triple commercial tree plantations to 3 million hectares by 2020. However, the collapse of managed investment companies (Timbercorp and Great Southern Corporation) and a change in government have stalled this plan. The Plantations 2020 vision is not a climate change document but it does consider social and environmental change as it affects forestry (http://www.plantations2020.com.au/vision/). Key strategic elements in this plan relevant to climate change adaptation are:

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 34 • Better regional planning and a comprehensive policy approach • Set the right legislative environment in place • Promote research and development and skills development • Improve stakeholder engagement and identify environmental benefits and services • Monitor future developments and opportunities to maintain investment.

There is currently little state level policy designed specifically for the adaptation of forestry to climate change. However, many policies related to water management and environmental sustainability are in place across the different states and territories. These address climate variability and forests and are relevant to climate change adaptation. In particular these apply to the management of fire, weed, pest and disease (Box 4).

Box 4: Identified environmental policies in various Australian states and territories that are relevant to climate change adaptation. Tasmania • Tasmania has a Regional Forest Agreement and in common with other RFAs it considers climate change issues (http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/regions/tasmania). • A review of environmental state policies in Tasmania with those in other jurisdictions in Australia and overseas has recently been conducted (McDermott et al. 2007). This was not conducted for climate change but by addressing environmental policies has relevance to it. This state has polices for forest practice, plantation, biodiversity protection, enforcement and compliance but not for climate change. Its plantation policies are less prescriptive than those for native forests and its biodiversity protection policies are the most prescriptive on a global scale and within Australia for species at risk and protected areas (McDermott et al. 2007).

Western Australia • An extensive coverage of state legislation and policy relevant to forests, with particular relevance to cultural values, is provided in the Assessment of Protective Mechanisms for National Estate Cultural Heritage Values (O’Connor 1998). This report was prepared for the preparation of the RFA for this state (http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/regions/wa). Although focused on cultural heritage values this report considers forests under its management plan. • WA State policies that are applicable to the management of forests under climate change are those associated with fire, weeds and property management plans. • Each local council has its own general fire law (Department of Agriculture and Food, WA: http://www.agric.wa.gov). Firebreaks are required by law in this state. Firebreaks are required to allow vehicles access to fight fires, to back burn and to control fires spreading. The use of herbicides to control plant growth is strongly recommended by the WA government to prevent ‘an erosion hazard’ occurring where scarifier or disc harrows may otherwise be used (Department of Agriculture and Food, WA). Placement of fire breaks on the landscape may need to be changed to adapt to changes in the landscape with climate change. • Weed control and fuel reduction are mitigation strategies for fire management but changing the timing of these activities may be considered an adaptation to climate change. Weeds are considered to increase the risk of fire (Department of Agriculture and Food, WA). For properties adjacent to large areas of native vegetation it is recommended that owners reduce the intensity of fire by controlling weeds and conducting fuel reduction burns in consultation with local Shire or city council, the Bush Fires Board, local fire brigade and Department of Conservation and Land Management (CALM) if the bush is managed by the latter (Department of Agriculture and Food, WA). Permits are required to conduct a fuel reduction during Restricted Burning periods (Department of Agriculture and Food, WA). Adaptation to climate change will require changes in nominated burning periods. • Property management plans need to consider the location of fencing to minimise risk of damage from natural disasters such as bushfire, cyclone and flood. The Department of Agriculture and Food recommend that fencing follow the natural topographical features and Land Management units. Fencing is seen as a good policy for protecting remnant vegetation, revegetation, buffers, shelterbelts, agroforestry from stock and managing land management units (Department of Agriculture and Food, WA). • A further consideration in property management is in the creation of laneways (a stage above a simple track). The

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 35 Department of Agriculture and Food recommend that tree clearing and pulling out trees by the roots is avoided to prevent destabilisation and erosion. Trees that need to be removed should be cut off at ground level and the root left to rot (Department of Agriculture and Food, WA).

Queensland • A ‘Climate Change Action Plan for Forestry’ for Queensland has been developed with input from numerous state government agencies (Interview during this study; not available on web Jan 2010). This action plan is based on the DAFF climate change action plan and involves adaptation, bioenergy opportunities, inventory, and data gaps. • This state does not have a Regional Forest Agreement nor does it have a Code of Practice for Forestry (Timber Production Meeting, Mareeba July 2009). However, the commonwealth and south-east Queensland have prepared an RFA but this has not been signed (http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/regions/qld reviewed May 2009). • Clearing in state forests, national parks, and forest reserves require permits as defined under the Forestry Act 1959 and the Nature Conservation Act 1992. Other acts such as the Coastal Protection and Management Act 1995 cover the clearing of mangroves.

New South Wales • There are currently four NSW Forest Agreements which were made in 1999 and 2002 (http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/regions/nsw_statewide). They cover eastern areas of NSW such as the Upper North East (UNE), Lower North East (LNE), and Eden regions; and the Southern Region. These agreements are for 20 years.

South Australia • This state has a Natural Resource Management Plan in which climate change is integrated. It has also produced a joint state government department document on climate change mitigation and adaptation for agriculture that refers to forestry under longer term adaptive measures (Rebbeck et al. 2007). The policy identified in this document relevant to forestry is as follows: ƒ Be aware of existing policy on climate change and make sure that you or your industry are engaged in the development of future policy, for example, allocation of research funding for adaptation in agriculture ƒ Be aware of, and engaged in the development of, policy affecting your water supply or its security.

Victoria • Bushfires and water resources are major issues for this state. They have integrated climate change into their Victoria Sustainable Water Strategy ( and have several RFAs in place i.e. East Gippsland , Central Highlands, North East, Gippsland and West regions. (http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/regions/). • 2009 policy on land and biodiversity in times of climate change i.e. Land and biodiversity at a time of climate change: The Green Paper, Department of Sustainability and Environment http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrence.nsf/LinkView/2270213701D9AE6DCA2574350015F8F9554FC9C681B6CAB6CA2 572C600036DB1 • The Flora and Fauna Guarantee Act 1988 (FFG Act) is the Victorian legislation for the conservation of threatened species and communities and for the management of potentially threatening processes. http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrenpa.nsf/LinkView/0488335CD48EC1424A2567C10006BF6DB4F254CBD292B50F4A2 56817002AFF40

Northern Territory • Forestry in the Northern Territory is relatively small (Anon. 2009). This state has produced an action plan for the territory for climate change ‘The Northern Territory Climate Change Policy’ which was released in 2009. This action plan has a strong emphasis on emissions, offsets, energy, and business. Actions relevant to forestry are: ƒ “develop a risk analysis model that identifies the Territory flora and fauna species, environments and sites most susceptible to adverse impacts from climate change”, and ƒ “Take conservation efforts into the 21st century by partnering with landholders to create Territory Eco-link, a 1600 km conservation corridor from the tropics to the desert that will link our national parks and provide the buffer that species need as they adapt to the changing climate” (Anon. 2009). • Most broadscale land clearing in the NT has been for pasture and agriculture. Currently the NT has a moratorium on broadscale clearing in the Daly Basin region but outside this region permits to clear are being issued under both the Planning Act (NT) and the Pastoral Lands Act (Department of the Chief Minister, 2008)

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 36 d) Stakeholders’ response: tools and guidance Tools and guidance, identified by respondents during the semi-structured interviews were grouped into tools and guidance categories. Tools included models used to determine forest growth, production, carbon storage under different climate change scenarios, and technology. Guidance included: 1) planning documents (refer to WP1, Wood et al. 2010) such as action plans and business plans; 2) collaborations, and 3) sources of information, such as databases, inventories, research organisations and reports. In this section, analyses are presented according to the following categories: 1) conservation/production; 2) policy/management/both; and 3) climate zone i.e. north/south/national. This was to explore patterns in the data and to be consistent with the approach used in the workshop.

i) Tools - models Models developed by CSIRO or government departments were in general used by both the forest production and forest conservation sectors. Larger organisations were or had developed their own models. Most of the models were for growth under different climate change scenarios and were being used to address questions on whether trees can grow in a particular area or region in the future.

However, the lack of reliable information about how tree growth will be affected by raised CO2 levels has been a significant impediment to the development of growth models for assessing climate change impacts. While the situation is improving, with information from the Hawkesbury trial and elsewhere (see WP2, Medlyn et al. 2010), the interactions between factors such as changes in temperature, rainfall and evaporation, as well as raised CO2 and soil fertility are complex and poorly understood. Models were not being developed or used by small organisations that lack the workforce or financial resources; they were relying on large organisations to guide them. Responses included:

“We don't run computer models but know agencies that can” (Conservation)

“These are things which require at least 100 years of records, very complex mathematics, a whole lot of disciplines involved, so if you want a small private organisation to develop its own tools, no. We have a very solid understanding of what CSIRO, for instance, are discussing in terms of outturn, and so, we’re interested in that, but to develop our own models within our business would be pretty much a waste of time.” (Production; Management).

Computer based modelling tools were being used widely across the production sector to predict forest response to different variables such as rainfall and drought, and the potential for sites to sustain good growth rates (Table 8). These models have applications in both climate change mitigation and adaptation and there appeared to be some confusion among respondents about differences between ‘mitigation’ and ‘adaptation’. Historical records were being used to identify extreme events and conditions in the past and being incorporated into some of the modelling. Many respondents commented that they were using models principally to predict the carbon storage/carbon sequestration

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 37 potential of their forests which is essentially a mitigation strategy rather than adaptation strategy. Others were collaborating with or relying on other organisations to conduct the modelling for them. Examples of responses included:

“For us it’s not so much particularly new modelling tools or new inventory tools because – not we’re exiting out of, over a defined period, out of native forest harvesting. We’ve stopped going out measuring forest growth because ... we have all of the data for that and just by putting error margins around that resource availability.... It’s not like we need any particular growth models for modelling timber production because we’ve already got quite sophisticated inventory models. We take a conservative approach over 20 years” (Production).

“Collaborating with agencies such as CRC and Rainforest Alliance that are developing modelling tools; will use those models as they develop related to effects on the plant resources for climate change as well as with respect to effect on the disease spectrum” (National; Management).

“Some of the tools we’re looking at are things such as working out actual forest rates of different species across different types of environments and when you actually look at rainfall variation from the coast through to 600 millimetres currently, MAR in the rainfall zone, we're actually stratifying the landscapes across there. We can actually look at, and we’ve also stratified the soil types across those environments” (Northern Australia; Policy & Management).

“Our primary role is about establishing the database based on all our inventory data out there and our modelling about what sort of resource [unclear] there might be there for the timeframes being contemplated, in 20, 30 years out. ...We’re using our inventory modelling process, not to predict – we’re not using anything to predict climate change. We’re using our inventory and linear programming or modelling or our growth modelling tools potentially to see what effects there has been of climate change historically, but we’re not particularly using any tools to predict climate change” (Northern Australia; Policy).

“We're using process-based forest models according to BAR, 3PG, Promod, all these things trying to predict carbon variability and their impact from forest growth. In our model we have built in climatic records …, what we do when we model the future productivity of our plantations is that we do heaps of different scenarios which take into account periods of records which have got extreme climatic events and droughts. So we look at the potential impact of those climatic events and drought periods on the future productivity of our carbon sink plantations” (Southern Australia; Plantation).

“We have discretion over which areas timber’s harvested from, so one option we use our planning processes and linear planning tools to look at modelling where the timber can be harvested from that reduces the haulage distances. So over the last two years that’s become a conscious issue for us, that not only does it potentially help the client but the less distance the logs are being hauled for in trucks has an impact on climate change” (Northern Australia; Policy).

“I’ve got a copy of the Carbon Toolbox … I’ve only just really started to use it” (Northern Australia; Policy).

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 38

“The thinning does carry a windthrow risk. Our method of adapting to that at this stage is to get a better means of predicting windthrow risk. One of our silviculturalists has developed a Windthrow Risk Model, which we can overlay on our planning to identify early areas at risk of windthrow, so that we can change our thinning practices to reduce that risk” (Southern Australia; Management)

”We’re investing very heavily in [LIDAR] for forest inventory...We’ve done a lot of work to validate LIDAR as an accurate tool for measuring above ground [unclear] volume in this case.... to measure above ground forest structure as a means of connecting merchantable volume with biomass, so getting better relationships between how we upscale merchantable volume assessments from our LIDAR to total standing biomass” (Southern Australia; Management).

“Using satellite imagery, but scale is too coarse to develop good operational tools” (Southern Australia; Management).

“Computer based tools, carbon climate change calculators, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections” (Southern Australia; Management).

“The only thing we have is on our local project the FullCAM model which measures carbon sequestration in trees so we’ve used that” (Southern Australia; Policy).

“We have developed our own carbon modelling package for farm forestry but also use the eNCAP (electronic new carbon accounting package) package from the Federal Government” (Southern Australia; Management).

“GIS, estate modelling, financial models, typically those sorts of tools.” (National; Management).

“There’s a Farm Forestry Toolbox Version 5.0. That was developed by a trial across Tasmania. It’s now used nationally. That latest version, you can work out carbon uptake of stands of trees so you can look at the management regimes….. We’ve looked at farm gas. That model was developed by the NFI, ‘National Farm Institute” (Southern Australia; Policy & Management).

“Own yield regulation system, a very large computer based model, and we’ve adapted that to determine carbon accounting estimates or account for carbon sequestration” (Southern Australia; Management).

“Some of the forecasting and modelling to the IPCC and others” (Southern Australia; Policy).

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 39 Table 8: Models and measurement techniques identified by the production sector for use in response to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Model Management Policy Jurisdiction Climate zone Carbon toolbox - 9 NT Northern Australia Linear planning tool - 9 QLD Northern Australia Inventory models - 9 QLD Northern Australia Planning process (not - 9 QLD Northern Australia specified) Windthrow risk model 9 - Tas Southern Australia BAR, 3PG, Promod 9 - Vic Southern Australia LIDAR forestry 9 - Tas Southern Australia inventory Satellite imagery 9 - Tas Southern Australia Farm Forestry 9 9 Tas Southern Australia Toolbox Version 5.0, Farm Gas FullCAM model 9 - NSW Southern Australia eNCAP, FullCAM 9 - Vic Southern Australia model and own carbon modeling package Farm forestry toolbox 9 9 Vic Southern Australia – Cabala (CSIRO), 3PG IPPC - 9 ACT Southern Australia carbon climate 9 - WA Southern Australia change calculators, IPPC projections CSIRO’s SPIF tool 9 - National - GIS, estate modelling, 9 - National - financial models (not specified)

The conservation sector identified two models not identified by the production sector. These models were for evaluating the importance of biodiversity corridors and for modelling demographics. This sector was also using financial models as a cost-benefit tool to identify land for acquisition, risk associated with seed supply and value of investment for growth in biodiversity hotspots (Table 9).

Table 9: Tools identified by the conservation sector for use in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Model Management Policy Jurisdiction Climate zone FULLCAM 9 - QLD Northern Australia DIVA-GIS, Excel, 9 9 SA Southern Australia Ramas (metapopulation viability analysis) Financial model (not - 9 Vic Southern Australia specified) 3PG, Bioclim 9 - National -

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 40

Examples of the use of different models identified by respondents included:

“For basic biodiversity assessments which we use to evaluate the importance of biodiversity corridors, we use something called DIVA-GIS which basically is a GIS integrated package to present the biodiversity data in. We basically just use an Excel system to calculate - that’s what we did for the sensitive species analysis. Then for the [biothematic] modelling which tends to be in conjunction with researchers at other universities, we tend to use the CSIRO and the BOM predictions for climate but then those are integrated into specific modelling scenarios which are written in things like [unclear] and basic statistical packages...... But then the results are then integrated with the GIS package.. But I haven’t really found any good online calculators or anything that can really help. Demographic modelling, we might use things like [Ramas]. That’s not really specifically linked to climate change. It’s more demographic processes that might lead to extinction or sensitivity of species” (Southern Australia; Policy & Management).

“We’ve used 3PG, a plant growth model a little bit. We’re just fiddling around with that to see, I suppose we use [unclear] with [bioclim] which is another I think it’s CSIRO model which looks at, we’ve been looking at climatic, the climate envelope that species currently exist in.....We built some fairly sophisticated models of financial and growth models for carbon sequestration in various landscapes. We initially used the national carbon accounting toolbox as sort of our reference, but we’ve just completed a major field work project looking at developing our own carbon yield estimates across the country” (Southern Australia; Management).

“We’ve got a very, very sophisticated financial model that understands the risk around seed supply, land acquisition, scaling up the project, blah, blah, blah plus growth rates, return on investment capacity of things to grow in biodiversity hotspots and all the other - engagement in the corporate sector” (Southern Australia; Policy).

Others in the conservation sector are sourcing information from models presented in commissioned reports, or engaging universities or other agencies to run the models. For example:

”They’ll be just using the default parameters which are currently in the national carbon accounting system for native forests – actually getting real values for our forests, and then moving towards modelling that and the impacts of different scenarios on carbon storage.....So if there’s changes in climate that influence things that impact on tree growth then that flows through the monitoring and inventory systems for sustained yield modelling and therefore regulation of timber harvesting.” (Southern Australia; Policy & Management).

Requirement for “downscaling of the global climate model to a regional scale” (Southern Australia; Policy & Management).

“We don’t have any spatial modelling capability. . We need to get accurate elevation models and then we need to get useful spatial information systems to be able to look in different scenarios and see what the impacts would be on certain species or communities. So we don’t use those tools now, we are getting that information from commissioned reports” (National; Policy).

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 41

Some respondents referred to models being used by both the conservation and production sectors, including the Yield Regulation System and a Process-based Growth Model developed by CSIRO. However, one respondent commented that:

“It’s not the sort of thing that’s going to be useful for us for a state level modelling but, again, that could be useful in terms of trying to understand some of the variability under different scenarios” (Southern Australia; Policy & Management).

ii) Tools - technology Few technology tools were raised by respondents and these were all from the production sector. The only ones specific to climate change adaptation were for fire management and climate monitoring:

“Done a lot of mulching at my place that’s not necessarily an economic proposition in commercial forestry. Well, with a tractor mounted mulcher that breaks all the pruning’s down into very small pieces that rot down quickly and the grass just grows up through it. Grazing the plantations with animals as soon as we can to keep down the fuel load, grass fuel load. That’s in new plantations.” (Southern Australia; Management).

“Set up a number of meteorological sites” (Southern Australia; Management)

However, some considered improved techniques may be required in the future:

“Probably going to have to go more high tech than we are now” (Southern Australia; Policy & Management).

iii) Guidance – planning Few of the interviewees had action plans specifically for climate change and many could be better described as action plans for climate change mitigation and environmental sustainability (see Appendix 6). However, several respondents indicated that although they did not have action plans for climate change adaptation they were in a perpetual state of planning and thinking for climate change i.e. projects such as ‘Lose No Species’ (SA, Policy). Some of the action plans used to guide adaptive responses included inventories, use of historical data to assist in decision making and identifying gaps in data. It was also noted by the conservation sector that management plans and government submissions have a section on climate change particularly in relation to threatened or rare species.

iv) Guidance - collaborations Most of the production sector has strong partnerships with a whole range of bodies, forestry companies, researchers, and government departments. Collaborations were important for this sector in maintaining accreditation through the Australian Forestry Standard. Their commitment to these collaborations was

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 42 strong and in some cases incurred a large financial commitment:

“Costing us hundreds of thousands of dollars to be a member [of the Australian Forestry Standard], to participate or in forms of levies and so therefore we have a broad and very specific formal approach to it all” (Southern Australia; Production & Management).

“Australian Forestry Standard has major commitments associated with carbon sequestration, sustainability, biodiversity and all of those sorts of things. So if we want to maintain our forest certification standard and hang on to that standard [inaudible] with those we participate in the technical reference committees, we participate at board levels, we participate at industry opportunities to enhance and develop those systems.” (Southern Australia; Production & Management).

“Understanding how legislative requirements might be and if there’s opportunities to do some collaborative work with other organisations.” (National; Management).

”We have a general forest health management plan, or a general response for dealing with forest health issues related to forest management, in our state-wide forest management plan. It doesn’t specifically deal with climate change per se.” (Southern Australia; Production).

The conservation sector identified a broad range of collaborations with universities, government departments all of which were formal and active (Appendix 7). Many of these collaborations focus on identifying the likely impacts of climate change on native forest ecosystems, but a few studies are considering climate change adaptation.

v) Guidance – sources of information to guide adaptation To examine the sources of information on climate change the forestry sector were aware of or using, we explored where respondents had mentioned certain sources, inventories or databases, and links with universities, government agencies and non-government organisations. The use of inventories was mentioned in 5 of 34 interviews by both policy and management across states, and use of databases by one respondent. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the major international body reporting on climate change, was mentioned in 11 of the 34 interviews, by both the conservation and production sectors, and primarily by policy people (n=8). Other reports mentioned were the Hyder Report on climate change and protected areas (National, Conservation & Policy), World Heritage Report (National, Conservation & Policy), State of the Wet Tropics Report (Qld, Conservation & Management); National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (National, Conservation & Policy), and reports by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). Our results demonstrate that there is a broad range of collaborations occurring across the forest sector and many are with research organisations such as CSIRO and universities (Appendix 5). These collaborations were particularly concerned with forest health, plant growth, and pest and disease.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 43 7 Vulnerability of forests and regions to climate change

There is now a high degree of confidence that Australia is already experiencing impacts from climate change (Parry 2007). Some adaptation is occurring in natural ecosystems and agricultural sectors that will benefit forestry (see Stokes and Howden 2010), but the ongoing vulnerability associated with extreme events such as cyclones, fire, drought and flood is high. Australia’s vulnerability to climate change has been realised in the last decade with substantial economic costs in many states due to extreme events. As a result forestry production is predicted to decline by 2030 over much of southern and eastern Australia due to increased temperature, evaporation, drought and fire (Parry 2007).

Adaptation is an ongoing process that requires monitoring, reassessment of impacts and procedures against objectives and a response (which may be no change required). Failure to respond may have significant environmental and economic consequences and may increase the vulnerability of forests to climate change. Warrick (2000; 2006 in Parry 2007) describes the adaptation process as a cyclic process with each stage feeding into the implementation of adaptation measures. The cycle is as follows:

Existing Knowledge, Data, Tools (integrated assessment models) → Risk Assessment → Mainstreaming Adaptation → Evaluation and Monitoring (feedback for change) → Awareness Raising and Capacity Building→ Knowledge, Data, Tools

a) Potential impact according to climate change modelling scenarios The IPCC ‘worst case’ climate change scenario known as A1FI, where FI stands for ‘fuel intensive’, has the highest estimates of warming (IPPC 2007a). This model assumes strong rates of global economic growth with continued high dependency on fossil-fuel based forms of energy production over the next decade. It is considered by many scientists to be the most realistic of the IPCC models given recent trends in emissions. Moreover, the A1FI Model appears to under-estimate current trends in climate (Raupach et al. 2007). This is because the rate of anthropogenic emissions used in the IPCC model were based on an anticipated growth rate of 1.1% per year, whilst a tripling in rate to >3% per year occurred for 2000-2004 and this has not slowed (Raupach et al. 2007). This trend is likely to continue due to a lack of global commitment and political inertia to change. Anderson and Bows (2008 concluded that it is unlikely that a global agreement on CO2 reductions will occur soon enough to stabilise carbon dioxide at 450 ppmv, and it may be that stabilizing near 650 ppmv CO2 equivalent is also improbable. The impact of increased carbon dioxide and warming on forest health and growth is poorly known.

Forest destruction is a major contributor to global human-induced CO2 emissions accounting for 12-25% of the current anthropogenic input into the atmosphere (Anderson and Bows 2008). Further deforestation is putting the remaining forests at risk through increased edge effects and enhanced risk of fire (Laurance 2005). Australia has a poor record of deforestation which is of concern considering this is the second driest continent on Earth. With climate change Australia needs to consider how to best adapt its forest so no further loss occurs and soil moisture, nutrient loss and erosion are prevented.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 44 Despite this, Australia is on track to meet its Kyoto Protocol commitments because of trees. Reduction in clearing combined with growth of new plantations has offset much of the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

b) Adaptive Capacity (risk, exposure, sensitivity and constraints/barriers) “Adaptive capacity is understood as a broad term that covers the overall capacity for an actor to adapt successfully to multiple external stresses, e.g. a changing climate, within the given frameworks and premises provided in an organisational, political, economic and social context. Legislation, policy and market pressures may limit or increase the resources and scope of adaptation available to an actor during various times. Understanding adaptive capacity thus requires a broad understanding of both the land-use pressure from different actors and the organisational, political, economic and social context that impacts the actors’ ability and rights to use the land.” (Keskitalo et al. 2007). Enhancing adaptive capacity will essentially decrease vulnerability, increase resilience and promote sustainability of forests (see Figure 3). The capacity to adapt varies considerably among regions, countries and socio-economic groups and will vary over time (IPCC 2007b). The ability to reduce vulnerability through planned adaptation is influenced by the exposure and sensitivity of forests and communities to climate change (Ogden and Innes 2009). Most human systems have considerable adaptive capacity. Australia, in particular, has several well developed systems in place to manage climate change impacts such as: • Well developed economy; • Extensive scientific and technical capabilities; • Disaster mitigation strategies and plans; and • Well developed biosecurity procedures (Cole 2005; Parry 2007). The forest sector operates in a variable climate and as such adaptation is natural and ongoing. Forest management also has a long history of adaptation through experience and scientific research and implementation (Hill et al. 1999; Innes et al. 2009; Laurance 2005). Societies and economies have also been making adaptation to climate variability for centuries (WG II, IPCC 2007b). Through adaptation to climate variability the forestry sector has built its adaptive capacity to climate change. Planned anticipatory adaptation can avoid ecological, social and economic costs that may be associated with reactive, autonomous adaptation (WG II, IPCC 2007b). Developing Regional Forest Agreements (RFAs) and Codes of Practice for all states that include climate change adaptation strategies will increase adaptive capacity. This will require and depend on appropriate policy, institutional structure, access to financial resources, global markets, technological advance, innovation and implementation, and social understanding (Johnston and Williamson 2007; Reilly and Schimmelpfennig 2000). Incorporating traditional and local level knowledge which is often overlooked should enhance adaptive capacity (Ogden and Innes 2009). In Australia, little has been done to include Indigenous knowledge in forest management, and governance of forest resources involving co-management of traditional lands and reserves is in its infancy (Hill et al. 1999; Ogden and Innes 2009; Putnis et al.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 45 2007). Numerous factors such as the organisational, political, economic and social context impact the ability and rights to use the land and may lower the adaptive capacity of the system (Keskitalo et al. 2007; Keskitalo 2008). Adaptive capacity will be affected by how well adaptation measures are accepted into local practices (FAO 2009). Diversifying rural enterprises - to develop and promote diverse, flexible livelihoods that reduce people’s dependence on climate-sensitive resources will ultimately protect them against other vulnerabilities in the future (FAO viewed on line 2009). Adaptive capacity will be affected by the demographic structure of a community servicing the forest industry, for example, availability of a skilled work force to service the industry and work on the land and their ability to cope with heat stress (The Allen Consulting Group 2005). It will also depend on exposure to markets and availability of funds to operate where infrastructure will be stressed by extreme weather events. Exposure to failed investment strategies and uncertainty in the market will lower adaptive capacity of the industry. The risk of this is high as demonstrated by the collapse of two major managed investment companies involved in plantation forestry in Australia: Great Southern Corporation and Timbercorp. Since the collapse of these managed investment schemes (MIS), Forest Enterprise Australia which generates 60% of its income from plantation forestry, declined from $114 million to $23 million (http://www.fridayoffcuts.com/dsp_newsletter.cfm?id=330#1). Further, an example of uncertainty in the market is available material for timber mills e.g. all Forest Plantation Queensland properties are to be sold under the Queensland Government with unknown impacts on management of timber and source of products (pers. com. G. Dickinson, Qld DPI, Sept. 2009). Potential to improve adaptive capacity through networking and dissemination of knowledge may be provided through frameworks such as Private Forestry Development committees and extension officers: • Private Forestry Development Committees (PFDC’s, previously Regional Plantation Committees around Australia) provide a forum for discussion and information exchange. At a national level, the Howard Federal government set up 18 PFDC’s. Their role was to facilitate the development of plantations on private land (Bevege et al. 2004).These were partially funded through the National Heritage Trust. Some of these committees have recently been disbanded but others are still operating (pers. com. G. Dickinson, Qld DPI, Sept 2009). • Data collection, analysis and dissemination of knowledge through national extension and research services in agriculture and forestry will improve adaptive capacity, however, this will depend on the quality of the information at a regional level (The Allen Consulting Group 2005; FAO 2009) • “Governments and local communities also need to be up-to-date on the latest climate-related research, methods and tools, including local impact assessments and funding mechanisms such as the carbon market funds” (FAO viewed on line Sept. 2009) which will depend on well structured systems for information transfer. • Adaptive capacity will also depend on the capacity and flexibility of decision makers at all levels to make continuing adjustments (FAO viewed on line Sept. 2009).

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 46

In contrast to human systems, natural systems have low adaptive capacity to adapt to climate change (refer to WP2, Medlyn et al. 2010). The Allen Consulting Group (2005) and Parry (2007) identify the following as major contributors to the low adaptive capacity of natural systems to climate change, all at a high level of confidence: • Evolutionary processes may be too slow for forests to adapt to the rate at which climate change is occurring; • Biological systems may not cope with the rate of change and the significant pressures of climate change beyond their threshold to cope; • Contractions of suitable habitat to grow forest and limited capacity to expand or migrate; • Increasing fragmentation limiting movement, i.e. ‘migration in response to shifting climate zones’; and • Economic damage from extreme events is likely to create challenges for adaptation.

A forest’s exposure and sensitivity to climate change will be affected by climate trends and variability, land use change and management which will affect adaptive capacity of the forests. For example, these changes will affect tree-level processes (e.g. productivity), site conditions, stand structure (e.g. density, height, basal area) and species distributions (Johnston and Williamson 2007). Forest management will need to adjust to changes in seasonal operations, changes in product (species that can be grown in an area), changes in wood supply (positive in some areas such as boreal forests of Sweden and Finland but negative in dry-tropical areas (Roberts et al. 2009), and changes in costs, demand, prices and benefits. Other forest values will also change such as carbon storage, nutrient cycling, wildlife habitat, biodiversity, recreation, Indigenous use and aesthetics (Johnston and Williamson 2007) with unknown affects on adaptive capacity. The Working Group II (IPCC 2007b) report has a very high level of confidence that spring events such as migration, unfolding of leaves and egg-laying are happening earlier and a shift in altitude and latitude (both higher) in the ranges of plants and animals is occurring. There is growing empirical evidence of these changes (Colwell et al. 2008). For Australia’s tropical rainforests there is nowhere for forest to move and a dramatic change in forest type is predicted with climate change (Hilbert 2008). Working Group II (IPPC 2007b) also project that dry regions will get drier and wet areas wetter and this is supported by modelling conducted for this project. There is high confidence that “by mid- century, annual river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics.” These predictions have major implications for the distribution and types of forest that may be grown in Australia in the next few decades. Most vulnerable are those forests that are most exposed to hazardous climate change (WG II, IPCC 2007b) and forests at the edge of their climate tolerance. Similarly, established plantation forests cannot readily change and thus have low adaptive capacity to climate change. In general, primary forests have higher biodiversity than modified natural

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 47 forests or plantations which provides them with greater adaptive capacity (Thompson et al. 2009). Policies that protect them will benefit biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services and thus adaptive capacity to climate change. Understanding changes in natural disturbance regimes such as fire, pests and pathogens with climate change impacts on Australia’s forests will enable better planning and enhance adaptive capacity (Karschon and Pinchas 1971; Eldridge and Simpson 1987; Groom et al. 2004; Beringer et al. 2007; Wood et al. 2008; Beaumount 2009; Pekin et al. 2009) Invasive species impose enormous costs on forests in terms of ecological destruction, economic losses and detrimental social effects (Abbott et al 1993; Bashford 1993; Glen et al. 2007; Aizen et al. 2008; WP2 & 3 - Medlyn et al. 2010; Cockfield et al. 2010). Adaptive capacity is likely to be affected by the speed of adoption of adaptation measures. A report on the speed of adoption of major agriculture adaptation measures, which are pertinent to forestry, show that some adaptation measures take an adjustment time of up to 100 years (Reilly and Schimmelpfennig 2000). Shorter adaptation times in the range of 3-14 years are reported for adaptation related to transport systems, opening new lands and variety adaptation, intermediate times in the range 8- 20 years for variety development, fertilizer adoption, tillage systems and longer adaptation times for new crop adoption (15-30 years FAO, Agrostat – various years), irrigation equipment (20-25 years) irrigation infrastructure (50-75 years) and dams (75-100 years) (Reilly and Schimmelpfennig 2000). Speed of adoption may also be influenced by social factors such as education, training and experience, all of which take time (Reilly and Schimmelpfennig 2000). In Australia, there is a high level of experience and education in the forest industry (the 34 people interviewed in this study represent 595 years of experience. Thirty (88 %) have university degrees and 9 of those have doctorates; this study). However, this expertise is likely to decline as forestry training is in decline in Australia and many in the forest industry will retire in the next decade (i.e.17 in age group 45-54 and 6 in age group 55-64 years). This will lower the industry’s adaptive capacity. Land areas already stressed have poor adaptive capacity e.g. land that is degraded, has lost biodiversity and is impacted by salt incursion (The Allen Consulting Group 2005). Loss of biodiversity, that is diversity of genes, species and ecosystems, limits the capacity of a system to adapt. A high biodiversity is most likely to increase the resilience of an ecosystem to climate variability and progressive climate change (Thompson et al. 2009). Tropical rainforest ecosystems are some of the most genetically and species-diverse ecosystems on earth and probably best equipped to cope with some of the impacts of climate change such as cyclones. Both tropical and temperate conservation forests, with their high biodiversities, are likely to be the source of genetic material for the forests of the future under a changed climate. Low adaptive capacity is predicted for forests in the highly seasonal ‘dry tropics’ of northern Australia where tree establishment is limited due to long dry periods (5-8 months), and highly irregular and variable rainfall in the summer months (December-March) (Bristow 2004; Dickinson and Lee 2005). Despite predicted higher rainfall northern Australia will be hotter with longer dry seasons and increased

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 48 evaporation which will severely challenge plant survival (SimCLIM modelling, WP1, Wood et al. 2010). The variation in rainfall can put considerable stress on soil moisture through evaporation and transpiration in the dry season with cracking clays drying and creating extreme pressure on root systems. Further the challenge of establishing seedlings in this region is enhanced by the desiccating effects of low relative humidity e.g. 10-20% and greater extremes of hot and cold inland owing to little cloud cover (Nix 1983). In north western Australia rainfall has increased over the last 100 years resulting in a thickening of woodlands and an expansion of them into rangelands. This is considered to be partially driven by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (Woinarski et al. 2007). With predicted warmer conditions and more intense rainfall events (see modeling WP1, Wood et al. 2010) this may lead to increased fire intensity and frequency in the dry season, as the fuel loads build in the warmer wetter conditions in the future (Woinarski et al. 2007). Based on modelling conducted for this projects and that of Turton et al. (2009) conditions for continued expansion of woodland into rangelands in the future is unlikely in northern Australia. Conditions for this region are predicted to be hotter for longer periods, that is an increase from 35 to 180 days greater than 35°C per year later this century, which is unlikely to sustain woodland growth. Further, most of the low lying plains, including Kakadu, are predicted to be inundated by the sea as the temperature increases with climate change (Turton et al. 2009), reducing the available rangeland for forestry. This may open an opportunity for mangrove forests to expand across the low lying plains. Evidence of mangroves spreading further up waterways where seawater is starting to penetrate has already been observed (Eliot et al. 1999). Adaptive capacity of seeds and seedling is also low where floodwater persists for extended periods in the landscape. This results in death of seeds and understory plants as evidenced in northern Australia following the 2008-2009 wet season in Cape York. Long dry periods also reduce forest productivity (pers. com. G. Dickinson, Qld DPI, Sept. 2009). Longer growing seasons in southern Australia due to fewer frosts may be a factor in favour of improved adaptive capacity of forests (The Allen Consulting Group 2005). However, decreased rainfall and higher temperatures are likely to offset this effect and be greater stressors limiting the adaptive capacity of forests in much of this region. Box 5 summarises the constraints and impediments to adoption of climate change adaptation strategies and practices in Australian native forests and plantations, as identified from the literature review (see also WP2, Medlyn et al. 2010). The literature review suggests that we are still lacking some of the fundamental knowledge and data to inform the native and plantation forestry sectors about what is required for climate change adaptation over coming decades.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 49 Box 5: Identified constraints and impediments to adoption of climate change adaptation strategies and practices in Australian native forests and plantations. • Natural adaptive and coping capacity of forests exceeded by climate change – effective options such as relocation, developing migratory corridors or removing other environmental stresses will be extremely limited (Allen_Consulting_Group 2005) • Lack of understanding of appropriate species and silvicultural practices in the ‘dry’ tropics (Bristow 2004). Traditional species of plantation timbers used in southern plantations such as Eucalyptus globulus, E. nitens and Pinus radiata are not suitable for northern Australia. Few individuals, organisations or tree growers have been prepared to take the risk of establishing plantations in northern Australia (Dickinson and Lee 2005). • Strong competition with other rural industries such as pastoral, horticulture and sugar industries for the better soils in the dry tropics (Dickinson and Lee 2005) • Drought, fire and stock grazing: In the dry tropics, trials of fuel wood, fodder and agroforestry species were established in Mareeba and Charters towers in 1989/90 without irrigation. In the last 15 years drought, fire and stock grazing resulted in reduced growth rates of Acacia, Eucalyptus, Grevillia, Corymbia, Casuaraina, Melaleuca and Sesbania species in these trials. Only a few species, Corymbia citridora subsp. citridora, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, E. cloeziana and E. raveretiana (black ironbox) demonstrated acceptable survival and moderate growth rates (Dickinson and Lee 2005). • Fire: Conservation of biodiversity and catchment values are potentially sensitive to high fire intensity in southern states (Bradstock et al. 2008). Climate change effects on risk are predicted to be appreciably higher for sensitive biodiversity values in terms of “mean area of unplanned fires, large fire probability, average fire intensity and average area of urban edge burnt by unplanned fires. The level of increase in risk, based on these measures, is generally 5- 20 % under the High scenario and < 10 % under the Low scenario” (Bradstock et al. 2008). • Salinity: Trials in north-eastern Australia have been conducted to identify species for rehabilitation of saline areas (Sun and Dickison 1997). Eucalyptus camaldulensis performed best of 28 species on all salt treatments (low <60 mS/m to high >110 mS/m) with 97% survival in first 2 years but by 13 years survival dropped to <35% and growth fell behind numerous other taxa. • Weeds: One of the greatest concerns, for the majority of commercially-orientated landholders in the Wet Tropics Region of Far North Queensland in 2007-8, according to a survey of 1600 rural landholders, was weeds and their management. Weed management is the most commonly reported costly natural resource management activity (Emtage and Reghenzani 2008). • Uncertainty: The uncertainty of climate projections and uncertainty of future policy developments are considered by many forest managers to be too high to make a change, especially as they could potentially affect costly decisions that are difficult and expensive to reverse (Keskitalo 2008; Roberts et al. 2009; Watkiss et al. 2007). Associated with this is the uncertainty of how climate change will affect net primary productivity of Australia’s forest estate (Anon. 2006). • Regional level information on climate change and specifically, coverage across the range of different climate change effects is currently absent (Watkiss et al. 2007); respondents of this project ). • Economic: Financial viability is a major concern of the majority of commercially orientated rural landholders in Far North Queensland (Emtage and Reghenzani 2008). Finance is a barrier to implementing adaptive strategies (Roberts et al. 2009). “Major advances are needed to understand the economics of adaptation. Adaptation will entail complex behavioural, technological and institutional adjustments at all levels of society” with costs and benefits associated with them that need to be articulated (Watkiss et al. 2007). • Social and diverse values and interests of stakeholders are evident in the forest sector. Stakeholders need information on “trade-offs among competing values and interests, distribution of costs among stakeholders and potential for changing preferences and unintended consequences over time” in order for adaptation strategies to be adopted (Roberts et al. 2009). • Knowledge of Cost/Benefits of implementing adaptive strategies: Some tools are being developed to address this in Australia and overseas (see Section 2 on tools; (Watkiss et al. 2007). • Lack of government policy, legislation: This is affecting stakeholder investment and planning for expansion. • Capacity to afford or access insurance and re-insurance: Some companies are including climate risk in their policies. A huge increase in costs and withdrawal of insurance from certain areas is predicted in the future with climate change (The Allen Consulting Group 2005) • Require a review of the types of forests and their vulnerability to climate change throughout the country. • Afforestation with tree plantations can lead to undesirable environmental and socio-economic impacts such as decreased food security, reduced stream slow, loss of biodiversity and local incomes (Jackson et al. 2005).

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 50 c) Vulnerability of Australia’s forest to climate change without adaptation

In this section we report on the vulnerability of Australia’s forest to climate change without adaptation. There is an array of terms used when discussing vulnerability, including adaptive capacity, risk, natural hazards, resilience, exposure, sensitivity, often in different contexts by different authors (Brooks 2003). Vulnerability means different things in different disciplines. For example physical scientists see vulnerability in terms of risk to the natural environment and natural hazards, whereas social scientists use vulnerability in relations to social-economic factors affecting communities and how that affects their ability to cope with stress or change (Brooks 2003). We consider vulnerability in the context of both biophysical and socioeconomic risk to the forests and the community. The findings are our interpretation of the literature and key findings from WP2 (Medlyn et al. 2010) and WP3 (Cockfield et al. 2010). Box 6 provides a summary of the key findings.

Few respondents commented on which forests or regions they considered vulnerable to climate change during the interviews (see below). Those that did, confined their responses to their local issues and immediate area. The broader picture of vulnerable forests and regions in Australia was explored during the workshop (see below). Areas that are vulnerable to climate change are those where: • There is nowhere for forest ecosystems and their biota to migrate to under climate change, e.g. upland forests such as those in the wet tropics, and suitable areas in northern and southern Australia that are compressed in area due to sea-level rise on one side and increasing aridity on the other, and • Effective options for enhancing adaptive capacity through, for example, restoring or developing migratory corridors, relocation or reducing other environmental pressures, are extremely limited e.g. suitable land is not available due to other land uses such as agriculture, urban use, peri- urban expansion, and transport networks (many parts of eastern Australia).

Box 6: Regions and forests in Australia, by state and territory, that are potentially vulnerable to climate change impacts predicted for 2030 and 2070. Northern Australia and Northern Territory –low vulnerability to impacts of climate change by 2030, but highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change by 2070 Predictions (High scenario: 21 GCM Ensemble median, SRES A1FI, high climate sensitivity) for northern Australia are for a decrease in rainfall between April and October by 2070, and increase in maximum temperatures of up to 5°C. 2030 plantation and conservation forests - low vulnerability to climate change 2070 plantation and conservation forests - highly vulnerable to climate change • Unlikely to be suitable habitat available to grow trees due to rising sea-levels, increasing aridity inland, and higher temperatures with decreased rainfall in the dry season

Queensland (SE and central) 2030 – change occurring but still suitable for plantation and conservation forests i.e. low-medium vulnerability to climate change • Vulnerable to drought and raising temperature i.e. 1°C increase result in loss of some rainforest biodiversity. Drought lead to canopy thinning, wilt of shallow rooted understorey plants, defoliation of evergreen trees, death of large trees

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 51 • Vulnerable to soil pathogens such as Phytophthora cinnamomi that favour more intense rainfall events • Vulnerable (eucalypt plantations and regeneration forests) to Mycosphaerella leaf disease • Vulnerable (stressed plantations) to Chrysomelids leaf bettles • Vulnerable (especially newly planted seedlings) to Ips grandicollis (Fivespined Bark Beetle) which thrives in warm to hot conditions • Vulnerable to weed infestations in rainforest with increase associated with more intense cyclones e.g. Miconia (small tree) following cyclone damage • Major social, economic and biodiversity impacts on rainforest ecosystem associated with weeds • southern Queensland vulnerable to spread of Asparagus asparagoides (bridal creeper) 2070 – major change in composition of conservation forests • Conservation forests – rainforest highly vulnerable, may already have dried to wet-dry sclerophyll forest • Plantation forests – vulnerable but potential to explore new species • Vulnerable (eucalypt forests) to Mycosphaerella leaf disease • Vulnerable (stressed eucalypt plantations) to Chrysomelid leaf bettles • Vulnerable (especially newly planted seedlings) to Ips grandicollis (Fivespined Bark Beetle) • Vulnerable to fires in drought periods such as occur in El Nino years

New South Wales 2030 - conservation and plantation forests vulnerable to fire, drought • Vulnerable (stressed eucalypt plantations) to Chrysomelids leaf bettles • Vulnerable (especially newly planted seedlings) to Ips grandicollis (Fivespined Bark Beetle) which thrives in warm to hot conditions • Vulnerable to weed infestations of Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius • Vulnerable (Pinus plantations) to the wood boring wasp Sirex noctilio 2070 - conservation and plantation forests vulnerable to fire, drought • Vulnerable (stressed eucalypt plantations) to Chrysomelids leaf bettles • Vulnerable (especially newly planted seedlings) to Ips grandicollis (Fivespined Bark Beetle) • Vulnerable (Pinus plantations) to the wood boring wasp Sirex noctilio • Vulnerable to weed infestations of Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius

Southern Australia 2030 - conservation and plantation forests highly vulnerable to fire, drought • Plantations - reduce vulnerability by planting drought resistant genotypes and species, buffer zones and adjusting spacing • Conservation - potential for relocation within provenances to enrich areas, selection of varieties resistant to certain diseases and pests and corridors, but trees are likely to be highly stressed and more vulnerable to pests and disease • Highly vulnerable to stem canker Botryosphaeria which is more successful when attacking stressed trees • Highly vulnerable to Armillaria luteobubalina (root rot soil-borne fungus) attacks stressed trees • Vulnerable (pine plantations) to Ips grandicollis (Fivespined Bark Beetle) • Vulnerable (Pinus plantations) to the wood boring wasp Sirex noctilio • Vulnerable to weed infestations of Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius 2070 – highly vulnerable • Highly vulnerable to stem canker Botryosphaeria which is more successful when attacking stressed trees • Highly vulnerable to Armillaria luteobubalina (root rot soil-borne fungus) attacks stressed trees • Vulnerable (pine plantations) to Ips grandicollis (Fivespined Bark Beetle) • Vulnerable (Pinus plantations) to the wood boring wasp Sirex noctilio • Vulnerable to weed infestations of Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius

Victoria 2030 - conservation and plantation forests highly vulnerable to fire, drought • Highly vulnerable to stem canker Botryosphaeria which is more successful when attacking stressed trees • Highly vulnerable to Armillaria luteobubalina (root rot soil-borne fungus) attacks stressed trees • Vulnerable (stressed eucalypt plantations) to Chrysomelids leaf beetles and Ips grandicollis (Fivespined Bark Beetle) • Vulnerable (Pinus plantations) to the wood boring wasp Sirex noctilio • Vulnerable to weed infestations of Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 52

2070 - conservation and plantation forests highly vulnerable to fire, drought • Highly vulnerable (stressed trees) to pests and disease such as Botryosphaeria and Armillaria luteobubalina • Vulnerable (especially newly planted seedlings) to Ips grandicollis (Fivespined Bark Beetle) which thrives in warm to hot conditions • Vulnerable (Pinus plantations) to the wood boring wasp Sirex noctilio • Vulnerable to weed infestations of Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius

Tasmania CSIRO projections for Tasmania suggest that extended dry periods in summer, autumn and spring may continue with climate change (AGO, 2001). 2030 – conservation and plantation forests more vulnerable • Vulnerable to Mycosphaerella leaf disease, which favours wet warm conditions • Vulnerable (Pinus plantations) to the wood boring wasp Sirex noctilio • Vulnerable to dieback in drought conditions when trees are stressed i.e. White Gum (Eucalyptus dalrympleana, E. rubida, E. viminalis) forests • Vulnerable to spread of Asparagus asparagoides (bridal creeper) • Vulnerable to weed infestations of Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius 2070 • Vulnerable (Pinus plantations) to the wood boring wasp Sirex noctilio • Vulnerable to dieback • Vulnerable to weed infestations of Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius

Australian Capital Territory 2030 – conservation and plantation forests highly vulnerable to fire, drought • Vulnerable to weed infestations of Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius 2070 - conservation and plantation forests highly vulnerable to fire, drought • Vulnerable to weed infestations of Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius

Western Australia • In south-west WA, rainfall declines of 10% by 2030 and 25% by 2070 with increased summer temperatures of up to 4°C 2030 – conservation and plantation forests highly vulnerable to fire and drought • Drought stressed populations are more vulnerable to pest and pathogen infestation (Steffen 2005; Booth and Jovanovic 2005) i.e. • Vulnerable - eucalypt plantations to Chrysomelids leaf bettles • Vulnerable - pine plantations to Ips grandicollis (Fivespined Bark Beetle) • Vulnerable to weed infestations of Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius 2070 Highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change • Large areas of the southwest will be hotter and drier with severe consequences for native forests and the viability of plantations

Climate change predicted for Australia by 2030 may stress some forests. However, climate change by 2070 across most of Australia will be beyond that previously experienced by forests of today, stressing most forests. Stressed forests may not die but they will be more prone to pests, pathogens and disease and their productivity will be reduced which is an important consideration for the plantation industry. Appendix 8 provides a detailed summary of the level of vulnerability of Australian forests, by region, without adaptation to the predicted impacts of climate change in 2030 and 2070. Box 7 provides a summary of the most significant biophysical and socio-economic vulnerability issues identified in this report and WPs 2 and 3.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 53 Box 7: Significant biophysical and socio-economic vulnerability issues for Australian forests and plantations due to expected effects of climate change by 2030 and 2070. Vulnerability to change in temperature and rainfall • Many eucalypt species in Australia have narrow temperature ranges. In the next few decades they will be exposed to temperature and rainfall conditions under which they have not previously existed (Hughes et al. 1996). Bioclimatic modelling indicates climatically suitable environments for eucalypt forests in WA, SA and Vic will have started to contract by 2030; by 2070 suitable conditions for this forest type will have all but disappeared from WA. This suggests that some eucalypt forests throughout Australia will be vulnerable to the impacts of climate by 2030 and most will be vulnerable to the impacts of climate change predicted for 2070. • By 2030 there will be some warming that will result in a changing species composition of the native forests in Australia. However, by 2070 a predicted increase in temperature of >3°C across the whole continent will result in the conversion of most of the northern rainforest to dry sclerophyll (see models in WP1, Wood et al 2010; Hilbert 2001; Hilbert et al. 2001, Hilbert 2008). Upland rainforests of the Wet Tropics are most vulnerable with a predicted decrease of 50% of their area with a 1°C increase in temperature (Hilbert et al. 2001; Hilbert 2008), as predicted by 2030 (see WP1, Wood et al. 2010). • In native ecosystems rainfall has been shown to be positively correlated with leaf area index (Ellis and Hatton 2008). A similar relationship of rainfall and standing volume at 7 years (productivity) has been shown for plantation forests (Mendham et al. 2005). In northern Australia little change is expected in rainfall by 2030 and 2070 from the 1960- 1990 baseline (see models in WP1, Wood et al. 2010). Coastal rainfall will range from an average annual value of approximately 1000 mm in the Kimberly region of Western Australia to approximately 2000 mm along the eastern seaboard of Queensland. However, dry seasons are predicted to be longer and warmer and this may affect the leaf area index and the vulnerability of the forests. • Decreased rainfall and warmer temperatures predicted for southern Australia may stress plants and make them more vulnerable to pest infestation (Steffen et al. 2009; Booth and Jovanovic 2005). Higher temperatures are also associated with shorter generation time in insects (Steffen et al. 2009). • Modelling, of CO2, temperature and rainfall effects on average percent change in production for 6 plantation species by 2030, indicates that productivity of the northern plantation forests do not appear vulnerable to climate change e.g. little change in the Wet Tropics, but a 15-20% increase south of the Wet Tropics to the Queensland-NSW border (see WP2, Medlyn et al. 2010; Battaglia et al. 2009). In southern Australia little change is predicted for upper NSW but in southern NSW, Victoria, south eastern South Australia, north and eastern Tasmania and south west WA a change of 0->20% is predicted. However, on the inland margin of plantations in south west WA a reduction of >10% is predicted (see WP2, Medlyn et al. 2010; Battaglia et al. 2009) suggesting this region is highly vulnerable to climate change. This modelling does not consider drought, heat waves or fires or interactions with pests, weeds and pathogens.

Vulnerability to pests and pathogens • In northern Australia, increased seasonality with longer warmer dry spells may stress forests and this with an increase in abundance of insects will make the forests more vulnerable to pests. Climate change due to temperature increases may result in a greater overwintering success of pathogens and pests with potentially increased numbers (Harvell et al. 2002; WP2, Medlyn et al. 2010). • In a drier climate the rate of spread of pathogens, such as Phytophthora cinnamomi (dieback) a soil-borne fungi that causes root rot, is predicted to slow however a drier climate may also reduce host resistance to these pathogens (Booth and Jovanovic 2005). Thus the spread of Phytophthora cinnamomi in south western Australia is unknown. However, there is evidence that dieback in eucalypt forests in drought conditions in Tasmania may increase suggesting these forests may be vulnerable to Phytophthora with climate change). The worst areas of dieback in Tasmanian forests are in the areas of lowest rainfall’ (Kirkpatrick et al., 2000). Phytophthora is widespread in Tasmania and regarded as a primary plant disease (Cahill et al. 2008) The Wet Tropics of northern Australia may be more vulnerable to this fungus as more intense rainfall events are predicted for this region that favour Phytophthora cinnamomi (Gadek 1999). • Pathogens such as stem canker Botryosphaeria are more successful when attacking stressed trees (Booth and Jovanovic 2005). Forests in South Australia exposed to drier conditions and drought may thus be more susceptible to stem canker attack. • Mycosphaerella leaf disease has caused the destruction of native eucalypt forests and plantations in Tasmania, Victoria, NSW and WA (WP2, Medlyn et al. 2010). It is likely to increase with warmer, wetter climates (Booth and Jovanovic 2005). This may be an issue for some of the Tasmanian forests in the future but this disease may decline in other states that are predicted to be drier. • Armillaria luteobubalina is a soil-borne fungus native to Australia that causes root rot in natural ecosystems, forest

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 54 plantations and fruit crops and ornamental plants. The host range of the fungus is very large and poorly defined (at least 50 families and over 200 species) with little information on the presence of resistant or tolerant species; spores may remain active in the soil up to 50 years. It is a known secondary pathogen that is it is unable to infest trees unless they are already stressed. Severe symptoms of this fungus are associated with drought (Plant Disease Diagnostic Unit, Botanic Garden Trust, Sydney and Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, NSW. Botanic Gardens Trust). Southern Australia may be more vulnerable to this fungus with the predicted drier conditions in 2030 and 2070. http://www.rbgsyd.nsw.gov.au/plant_info/pests_diseases/fact_sheets/armillaria_root_rot (Accessed 1 April 2010). • Increased drought periods and the likelihood of fire will increase the incidence of Ips grandicollis (Fivespined Bark beetle) which is known to attack pine plantations (Medlyn et al. 2010). Pinus plantations may be more vulnerable to attack by I. grandicollis with climate change. • Pinus plantations are also vulnerable to the wood boring wasp Sirex noctilio; trees in the age class 10-25 years are particularly vulnerable (Carnegie et al. 2005). Storm damaged, drought and heat stressed trees are especially vulnerable to Sirex attack. However, plantations grown on high quality sites with good silvicultural practices, such as thinning and destroying affected trees, prevent the spread and infestation of Sirex (Carnegie et al. 2005).

Vulnerability to weeds • Weed infestation – bioclimatic modelling of weeds such as Broom Genista monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius indicates a shift towards the south with climate change (Potter et al. 2009). This suggests that southern forests will be vulnerable to infestations of Broom with climate change. • Extreme weather events, such as cyclones, provide a window of opportunity for the more persistent and competitive weeds (Murphy et al 2008 a,b). These proliferate providing material to invade with the next canopy disturbance. Increased intensity of cyclones and associated canopy destruction of forests of northern Australia may make them vulnerable to weed infestation.

Socio-economic vulnerability The socio-economic impacts of climate change on forests is diffuse and varies across landscapes and time (see WP3, Cockfield et al. 2010). • Communities will be vulnerable to the socio-economic impacts of climate change associated with accelerated deterioration of ecosystem health (see WP3, Cockfield et al. 2010). This is likely to affect both northern and southern Australia. • In the absence of climate change there is conflicting evidence on the socio-economic vulnerability of non-forest communities to plantation forestry in Australia. A survey of two communities in southern Australia, in which plantation forests have been established, suggest they are vulnerable to this industry (see WP3, Cockfield et al. 2010). In contrast, an economic impact assessment of establishing forestry plantations on good quality agricultural land in north Queensland suggests significant socio-economic benefits for the community (Garner 2008). However with climate change the socio-economic vulnerability of communities is likely to increase with heat stress impacts on people, tourism, agriculture and forestry (Wilson and Turton 2009). • Productivity of forests and community viability is likely to be vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. There is little evidence that domestic timber prices will improve with climate change (see WP3, Cockfield et al. 2010). However, productivity may be maintained or improved in some regions with adaptation (see WP3, Cockfield et al. 2010). A decline in growth rates of plantations, however, will render some regions vulnerable. This will result in changes in direct and indirect income which will flow on to community viability (WP3). Some regions may be less vulnerable if they are able to benefit from new investments or co-benefits, such as carbon sequestration, water filtration and salinity control (WP3). • It is unknown how the values of the forest to the community will be affected by climate change. First, fragmented habitat may be more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than large reserve areas, and thus there may be differential rates of decreasing value under climate change (WP3, Cockfield et al. 2010). Second, the areas that currently may be of ‘less value’ could be an important part of a response that allows the maintenance of a wide range of values in the future (WP3).

d) Interviews and social learning workshop - stakeholder perceptions To explore the vulnerability of Australia’s forests and forest industry to climate change we considered their exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change (see Figure 3). In the interviews this was considered under conservation/production and policy/management. We did not explore responses

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 55 to specific climate change scenarios during the interviews. In contrast, during the workshop (discussed later) we asked stakeholders to consider worse case (no adaptation) and best case (with adaptation) scenarios for 2030 and 2070 under extractive and non-extractive forestry for three climate zones: national, and northern and southern Australia. Climate scenarios used for 2030 and 2070 were those created by CLIMsystems (see WP1, Wood et al. 2010).

i) Exposure, sensitivity and changed paradigms The following definitions were used to sort responses (using NVivo data analysis package) as either ‘exposure’ or ‘sensitivity’ to climate change (Figure 3): • Exposure – driving forces, primarily external factors, depend on where you are in the landscape (refer to WP1 for climate modelling, Wood et al. 2010). • Sensitivity – inherent to a system and tied to its systems coping range.

Appendix 9 summarises the sorted data under three domains: exposure, sensitivity and changed paradigms. The latter is attempting to extract evidence that both production and conservation forestry are adapting to climate change through changes in their activities and practices. Under the exposure domain, most of the responses came from the production sector and are related to key factors such as drought, fire and increasing climate variability and weather extremes. Others mentioned selling their assets in southern Australia and re-investing in the north in response to increased climate change exposure in the south. Others specifically mentioned increased risks of extending production forestry into dry areas as these areas are likely to become drier in the future. Exposure in most of southern Australia was often related to water security and competing demands for water with the agricultural sector. The conservation sector identified the same exposure issues, notably droughts, other extreme weather events, fire and effects on forest processes. Responses grouped under the sensitivity domain were once again dominated by the production sector and included issues such as tree species selection for drier conditions, managing for pests and diseases and lack of skills in the industry to meet climate change challenges. The conservation sector identified a range of forest sensitivity issues, notably the need to establish a systematic broad-scale monitoring of ecosystems and how they are tracking over time. Changing paradigms identified from the interviews included a move towards linking sustainability of agricultural production with reforestation to better adapt to climate change. Other paradigm shifts included selecting only native species as they are likely to be more resilient to weather extremes associated with climate change and the need to re-address fire management in native forests to improve water availability for target species. Some respondents mentioned that their company had made a conscious decision to locate their plantations in areas with higher rainfall to offset predictions for lower rainfall in the future. The conservation sector advocated the need to consider the likely redistribution of species and ecosystems under climate change and to plan revegetation programs to align with these likely changes. In particular, they suggested that it was critical to identify in the landscape which areas are likely to experience the most pressures from climate change and to target

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 56 them for forest restoration.

ii) Adaptive Capacity and Limits to Adaptation To gauge the adaptive capacity of the forests and the industry to climate change we considered this under a series of thematic areas: biophysical, conflicting priorities, knowledge, financial, and policy/legislation. Respondents were asked to identify constraints and opportunities within these areas during the interviews (Appendix 10). The greatest number of responses were in the areas of biophysical and knowledge. We provide a summary of the findings below. As expected, for an ecosystem and industry with high exposure to climate change, there were many more constraints than opportunities identified in their ability to adapt. A recurring constraint was how to manage increased drought and fire risk due to higher temperatures and lower or reduced rainfall. Associated with this was increased climate variability and seasonality, and in particular changes in frequency and intensity of rainfall, with longer dry periods constraining what species will survive and grow. Rising temperatures, particularly at the extreme end, were a threat and constraint to forest growth. The conservation and production sectors both identified the impact of extreme climate events, such as drought and heat stress, as a cause of species loss. These impacts are already occurring in some locations and with time will affect the biodiversity of native forests and plantations. One respondent from the production sector summarised this concern:

“Soil moisture and the availability of water and our capacity to reforest and grow things is severely limited. For example you look at the Blue Gum populations down in the south-west. Now they’re unviable economically but they’ve unviable probably ecologically if they’d been a fire through some of it as well and given the dryness indices ...., some of those [unclear] populations are at entire risk.” (Southern Australia; Conservation).

The southern States are generally well prepared for fire. For example:

“All our staff and employees are trained in fire management and fire suppression. We have our own quick response vehicles, we have relationships with existing rural fires boards and local fire authorities, local fire brigades. We have a contractor base that we use for fire suppression and control. We undertake hazard reduction burns, we undertake fire management in our plantations through fire breaking, maintenance of weed [control] and debris [reduction] under the plantations to reduce fuel loads.” (Southern Australia; Management; Production).

However, fire is expected to be a greater threat to forests with climate change as conditions become hotter and drier. Stakeholders considered both fire frequency and intensity as a major issue for forests, particularly in the southern States. Severe fires in the last decade in most southern states has promoted a high level of awareness of fire risk and the need for a 'catastrophic' fire-alert category which has been implemented and used since 2009.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 57 Inundation, associated with high intensity rainfall events, is likely to be a major constraint in northern Australia. These events may result in water lying around for weeks or months rotting seedlings and the seed bank. Increased seasonality with droughts for several months following inundation will make adaptation extremely difficult.

“Trying to find the species that’s suitable to the drainage issues regarding the water inundation, a major factor for both Far North Queensland and Central Queensland too I suppose” (Northern Australia, Management, Plantation).

However, extreme wind events (due to tropical cyclones), which are likely to increase in intensity with climate change, were considered a larger threat than other variables for plantations in some parts of northern Australia:

“Wind is the most damaging, more damaging than pests, more damaging than fire, more damaging than drought”. (Northern Australia, Management, Plantation).

The ability to respond, re-establish elsewhere or to change species was considered a biophysical, financial and conflicting priority constraint by a large number of those interviewed. For example, long rotation times for plantation timbers such as Eucalyptus or Corymbias which are harvested at 30-40 years and Cypress at 80 years prohibit rapid responses. To change species or harvest earlier would have a financial impact but not responding will also have financial impacts if the trees die due to changing climate conditions. These also create conflicting priorities in management with uncertainty in how and when to respond due to lack of knowledge on species responses to different climate conditions. Some comments from participants include:

“Long rotation times for instance, if you want to introduce new genetic stock, the rotation is 37 years so if you wanted to put new genetic stock in the field, it's going to take that long to replace your growing stock” (Southern Australia, Policy, Plantation).

“There is no real quantification at the moment of the growth potential of species across the environment in the tropics and sub-tropics so the growth rate that are being predicted and the growth rates now that we’re finding don’t align very well” (Northern Australia, Policy & Management, Plantation).

“Being a forest where the trees are rooted into the ground, you can’t pick up and move somewhere. Where would you go to and the cost of relocation would be incredible not only for us but also for our customers” (Southern Australia, Management, Plantation).

A major biophysical constraint, identified from the interviews, was areas available to move to as prime growth areas for forests compete for agricultural and urban use. This was a concern for plantation and native forest. For native forest the concern was also ‘species lost’. A loss of area to grow plantations in southern Australia was a concern due to climate change. Associated with this was some

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 58 public resistance to plantation forests in agricultural areas and the fact that areas may also be unavailable for forests due to salt water intrusions. One respondent summarised the situation this way:

“Is there going to be sufficient rainfall across the country to maintain forests in the areas that they’re in at the moment or are we going to see a shift in forests potentially to the north of Australia, particularly in plantations?” (Southern Australia, Management, Production).

Pests and diseases were considered a threat to forests under climate change, as they are likely to increase with warmer temperatures and high rainfall (in some regions) at a rate that trees will be unable to adapt to. There is also a concern that they may spread to southern regions with climate change but drier conditions may negate this to some extent. Pests may also have a greater tolerance of climate change than plants and be able to move more readily between forest patches with climate change with unknown benefits on their growth in new areas. Major disease issues in the south-west forest of Western Australia are associated with Phytophthora sp. which may impact the survival and growth of some species as observed in the Wet Tropics rainforest (pers. com. S. Worboys 2009). However, the link of this fungus with climate has been questioned as there is evidence that its spread is associated with human visitation rather than climate:

“The spread of dieback that’s definitely going on but it’s not a climate ch ange related thing except unless if it’s true that it’s dr ying out it ma y sl ow down th e spre ad of di eback. But die back is reall y s pread by people, I th ink, more tha n a nything e lse t hrough th e for ests, the nati onal parks. T he forest stuff is reasonably co ntained because it’s washed do wn a nd all sorts of arra ngements for th ose ar eas of th e forest where really only the h arvesters go a nd no o ne else much. It’s (dieback) sp reading like fur y in th e national parks where everyone goes”. (Southern Australia, Management, Plantation).

Stressed trees are mo re prone to pe sts and dise ases and tre es are more likel y to be stressed under unfavourable climatic conditions. A pest seen as a threat under climate change is:

“The ‘wood borer’ [spp. not defined] which may be more active particularly as the incidence of trees being stressed in likely to increase with increased temperatures…. Stressed trees ar e also likely to attract the wood b orer pr edator the co ckatoo which will further d amage the tree s” (North ern Australia, Pol icy, Plantation).

Weeds are likely to be a major constraint in the establishment of forests in wet warmer conditions characteristic of tropical environments. However, weeds are a recognised problem in the establishment phase of both plantations and restoration projects and will continue to be a constraint independent of climate change in most areas where trees can grow. In some southern states, a constraint on management of weeds is the absence of a proper whole of organisation strategy for dealing with exotic weeds. Concern for how some weeds, which are recognised as ‘nasty’, will respond with climate change was raised by one respondent:

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 59

“When I moved from the su btropics to the tropics, the weeds problem becomes a bigger issue the furt her north that we actually go an d so we’re t hinking about i ncreased temp erature a nd th erefore i ncreased season for p otential weed growth a nd th en e xtra weed growth co uld b ecome a re al issue” (N orthern Australia, Policy, Plantation).

The impact of climate change on phenology, with insect pollinators out of synchronisation with flowering events, is likely to affect ecosystem function and biodiversity. This was identified by the conservation sector (n=3 interviews) as being a major issue for the future:

“Decoupling of ecosystems, so that’s where the timing of insects and pollination, seed dispersal will be out of sync with the flowering times of the plants in the ecosystems they were traditionally associated with” (Southern Australia, Policy and Management, conservation).

A constraint on movements was also seen as a likely impact on the biodiversity of forests (Queensland, management, conservation; national, management, conservation). Seed collection was also identified as a potential constraint to the conservation sector with climate change:

“The ability to l et and have available viable seed at the optimum time to stick in the ground is o ne of o ur critical limiting factors.” (Southern Australia, Policy, Conservation).

Climate variability, inherent in climate change, is very difficult for planners. This is because the unpredictability of the rainfall makes it a lot more difficult to plan for the fire season and planting times and silvicultural operations for minimum risk. Fire management becomes more problematic in some areas as high rainfall prohibits machinery from entering at times. Some current policy is a constraint. For example, the ‘bare earth’ policy to strip and control weeds may not be appropriate with climate change where extreme weather events will result in erosion. Access and policy to manage forest fires in national parks was seen as a major threat with climate change. For example:

“The biggest threat is the threat of fire, with increased temperatures, increased storm activity and so forth. I mean that rai ses a whole lot of concerns about production forests be ing converted into national parks and the re lative fire fightin g capacity of an d access for fire fighting capacity in pr oduction forests versus national parks… I think that’s something from a policy perspective that really needs to be looked at if we’re going to start fadi ng out of native forestry in preference for plantation forests. Native forests are go ing to be p ut into res erves or p arks. I see a sig nificant th reat, a fair di nkum f ire thre at with climate ch ange” (Southern Australia, Policy, Production).

An industry based on certain species is a constraint in adapting to climate change in many parts of Australia. This is because the forest industry has to change the market to introduce a new species, which has substantial costs. People that are investing are doing so on the proposition of some sort of

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 60 capacity for that investment, making it difficult to make radical changes over the life of a forest management plan. Small changes can be made during the life of the management plan but large changes have to wait till the management plan had run its course which may be 10-15 years. One respondent summarised the situation this way:

“You only get marginal changes during the time of the forest management plan and big changes at the end” (Southern Australia; Policy & Management).

Funding was considered a constraint to adaptive capacity in that it delayed the research, identification of varieties to grow and thus the potential to plant appropriate varieties allowing them to adapt with climate change:

“Funding s hortfalls is always an iss ue th e more mo ney t hat you can th row at gr owing trees, the mo re quickly [u nclear] varieties out there t hat will [unclear] ad apt with th e cli mate chan ge but also to a ble to sequester the carbon” (Northern Australia, Policy, Plantation).

Planning and policy are also constrained by lack of knowledge of species’ response to climate change and a poor understanding of climatic variability. Associated with planning and finance is infrastructure. This was raised as a constraint by one respondent but it is likely to affect a wider community in tropical Australia as extreme weather events intensify:

“A lot of our roads get closed over the wet season so we can’t actually access our properties with, in some cases, even light traffic. So the setting up of infrastructure” (Northern Australia, Policy, Production).

Major knowledge constraints identified by the respondents included putting the information in a form that the stakeholders could understand, especially the uncertainty around the information, and the lack of regionally specific data (Appendix 11). There was also a concern that we already have considerable knowledge about climate change but we are ‘re-inventing the wheel’ and this was linked to a failure to adequately disseminate information. In northern Australia, microclimates and catchment management of soils appropriate for plantations were identified constraints. In southern Australia, the lack of regional models was a constraint to adapting to rainfall variability. Research needs were identified particularly in relation to species tolerance of different climatic conditions. Specific knowledge on response of different species to fire was sought, for example in how Blue Gum plantations respond in extreme fire events in that they appear to behave differently to native vegetation:

“Longer hotter, drier summer periods that we seem to be experiencing makes the blue gum fire situation different to start with, but you combine the two and it makes it extremely difficult to fight fires”. (Southern Australia, Management & Production).

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 61 Many of the opportunities to enhance adaptive capacity are similar to ‘needs’ identified in WP1 and adaptation strategies identified in this report. Most were raised by the plantation sector with a few from the conservation sector. Specific opportunities identified by the respondents were: • support research organisations with financial and policy support. • develop linkages with research bodies. • Promote forestry for biodiversity benefits as well as bio-sequestration and/or bio fuels. • Initiation of trials of genetic material in what we perceive as climate extremes in order to look at the overall resilience of the population, e.g. the Australian Low Rainfall Tree Improvement Group (ALTRIG). • Establish monitoring for pests and disease resistant strains at edge of range. • Establish biodiversity reservoirs. • Support innovation and trial of new silviculture practices for new climate conditions. • Increase research into the efficacy of mixed species plantations. • Develop drought resistant tree varieties. • Expand our limited knowledge of the water use efficiency of our plantations and ways that it can be modulated under differing climate change scenarios. • Build our capacity in forecasting and research and development in climate change adaptation. • Increase connectivity of native vegetation through corridors in the landscape.

However, uncertainty about climate change futures is an ongoing impediment to adaptation and adaptive capacity. One respondent commented that:

“An opportunity can be as effective as the people who take it up. I suppose an opportunity that has some degree of uncertainty associated with it is less likely to be effective ‘cause you’re less likely to plan things that allow you to make long term measurements” (National, Management, Production).

iii) Social learning workshop The one-day Workshop was organised into two components to maximise participants’ time. Work Package 1 (Wood et al. 2010) provided a presentation on climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 as background information to the day. The workshop was structured as follows: • In a plenary session, participants were asked to consider the impacts of climate change on Australian forests and to identify significant and certain impacts and significant and uncertain impacts. • In small group sessions, participants were asked to consider the impacts of climate change on forests in northern and southern Australia under ‘worst case’ scenarios (futures) with no adaptation and ‘best case’ scenarios (futures) with adaptation. In the latter case, they were asked to re-consider their forest future stories in the light of

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 62 adaptation options and envisage a journey to 2070 that sees forests, forest communities and forest management well adapted to climate change.

Table 10 summarises the identified significant impacts of climate change on Australian forests according to their certainty and uncertainty. The list of impacts demonstrates how vulnerable our forests are to climate change as most impacts that were identified as significant and certain are expected to have negative impacts on forest processes and industries.

Table 10: Impacts on forests: i) significant and certain or ii) significant and uncertain. (Forest Vulnerability Assessment, NCCARF workshop, Brisbane 20th November 2009). Impacts – their certainty and significance Significant & Certain Significant & Uncertain (how uncertain or how quantifiable?) Ecosystem services impacts Biodiversity moving across landscapes (tenure?) Biophysical (direction of change) – biodiversity, fires, Biophysical (extent of change), ecological pests, droughts Species loss Species distributions Growth and survival changes Weeds, pests, pathogens (risk profiles changing) Change in fire risk profile Carbon rights Decline in timber production Changes in production over spatial area (policy?) Costs of production (e.g. management) Decline in productivity (carbon $, costs e.g. weeds) Regional adjustment (preferred cool etc) Settlement patterns Indigenous futures Perverse impact on land title, values Land abandonment impacts e.g. management Socio-cultural impacts Visitation patterns (fire risk?), perceptions Increased frequency of re-negotiation of social licence Behaviour, values, attitudes for forestry Increases in policy impacts, perverse policy Social (policy impacts?) • Carbon and indigenous / lessee potential • Threats to indigenous livelihoods • Regional communities

Boxes 7 and 8, respectively, summarise the workshop participants’ worst case futures with no adaptation for 2030 and 2070 and best case futures with adaptation. The results for both futures are separated into groups according to extractive and non-extractive forestry and northern and southern Australia and a group considering the national scale for 2070.

Box 8: Worst case futures for Australian forests for 2030 and 2070 which assume no adaptation to climate change. Northern Australia, non-extractive / other forests • Big species loss - Loss of ecosystem services, pollinators, reproduction / recruitment, increase in less desirable species or thickening, loss of amenity, loss of value, change in community composition, change / reduced resilience, invasion of pest spp, unstable / poor carbon source of shrubby areas • Impact across tenures – Increased urbanisation, community shifts, increased competition for resources and land use competition, desirable areas under water, nothing left to clear or increased pressure to clear what is left, increased pressure to makeup shortfalls or problems of south in the north, depopulation of north-west and amalgamation of properties, decline of expertise in north-west, loss of Indigenous communities • 2010, 2030, 2070 – biodiversity decline, scientists uncertain, no policy, competing land uses, poor policy, uncertainty continues to 2070; wet tropics stuffed and drowning

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 63

Northern Australia, extractive • Tropics - Higher summer rainfall, 2 – 3 degree C increase, less near centre, greater seasonality, higher losses with extreme rainfall, long dry season, protected areas (Cape York), indigenous community forestry. • Big opportunities in NT as lots of land, but distance to market, 7% people on 40% land mass, Kakadu predicted to go from 80 days a year over 35 degrees to over 180! Species – teak in wet areas, west African mahogany but not cyclone resistant, downstream industries (chip or log) • Further south – lower rainfall especially winter, more tropical species e.g. Caribbean pine, native hardwoods from tropical north, contested land use with peri-urban use, water catchment protection, fires with lots of understorey biomass, greater hazard • 2020 – decisions re carbon reduction – adaptation and mitigation • 2030 – investment decisions – transport, replanting species, policy decisions • 2070 – different species, higher establishment costs, greater fire risks, land competition

Southern Australia, non-extractive • Traditional forestry of Vic, SA, WA gone, tall forest shrinks, pressed towards coast, fire risk increases, water security issues • 2010, 2030, - less rainfall (except Tasmania), prolonged dry periods, forests less resilient to pests, human pressures – squeezed into available land, more clearing to protect assets and people, economic change (rural decline) • 2070 – inland desert increases, fringe of forest on coasts, wet sclerophyll to dry sclerophyll (ecosystem transition), land into reserves is small and fragmented, stress of forested areas from pests and fire, increased population pressure – need to manage risks • Less rainfall and increased temperatures will have a negative impact on forests except Tasmania • Inland desertification and changing ecosystems – breakdown of forestry – forests will move coastward – mallee encroachment • Bushfire threat means increased clearing in peri-urban areas with increased pressure on emergency services • There will be a conflict over water • Fragmented forests with less connectivity • People moving to coast

Southern Australia, extractive • Plantations - Reduced land available for planted forests – water issues, urban expansion, land use battles, poor business models – CPRS, MIS, tension between carbon and wood, step change vs trends, poor decisions now impact in 40 years • Number of fire days, pests, diseases, weeds - number of bad periods a year increases, decline in plantation volumes • Native forests – increased management intervention not acceptable, transitioning of these forests • Changing species composition due to climate change – use of new genetics or species will require social licence to do so • Accelerated succession • Policy over people • Poor business models – CPRS and MIS • Tension between carbon and wood • Step changes – dramatic • Poor decisions early will have dramatic consequences in 40 yrs • Increased management intervention in native forests

National, 2070 • Net imports (food and fibre) • Value of carbon declines • Lack / fragmentation of policy • Land competition • Water insecurity • International CC response fails • Carbon plantings die, new may not survive • Resource moves north but greater distance, higher costs • No incentives for ongoing management

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 64 • Doubling of production/supply needed by 2070 • Land management fails, conservation values lost • Social contract impacts on options

Box 9: Best case futures for Australian forests for 2030 and 2070 which assume adaptation to climate change. Northern Australia, non-extractive / other forests • Republic and ‘stateless’ • Landscape is tenure-blind • Population footprint has shrunk • Increase in forest / woodland • Forestry focus shifts from timber to climate regulation, water pump, soil stability, C-sequestration, amenity, catchments and biodiversity • Paradigm shift – remove forest dichotomy to manage estate, tenure blind • National coordination • Stop attempting to create the past, accept change • Population same as 2010 or less, high density living, reversal of urban sprawl • Translocation of species – manage ecosystem, species selection • Replacement of grasslands with woodlands – vegetation thickening, reforestation and/or regeneration on abandoned agricultural land • Effective market based instruments for forest ecosystem services • Community regional self-sufficiency – food, timber sourced locally • Use of natural energy – biomass, changed worth of marginal land for plantation establishment

Southern Australia, non-extractive • 2010 – science well funded, certain • 2030 – new models of community engagement, new vision, changes in species planting, adaptive policies, responding effectively to change • 2070 – ecosystem services, resilient forests but changing Adaptive strategies • Landscape planning – connectivity, resilience, refugia, intergenerational, good scientific knowledge • New paradigm of policy development – new economic model, adaptive, national body responsible, community engagement, precautionary principle into policy, proper incentives for landholders (commercial and complimentary), mechanism to ensure national policy consistency, need to assess research knowledge for deciding what decisions to make • New paradigm of community engagement – integrative research (participatory action research), new models of engagement and management – learn from indigenous engagement, landholders, two way exchange, real communication Vs virtual, marketing • Forests – multi-use – carbon, amenity, biodiversity • Reinvigorate forestry as a discipline – new type of forestry • Monitoring baselines – learn as we go and don’t wait for ultimate knowledge, open access data base

Northern Australia, extractive • Governance – resources, investment, people all sectors, new management arrangements – intensity increased, forestry access to information, management reports • 2030 – Snowy Mtns Scheme scale approach, national project, initial impetus through public $, new species, sector- individual focus • 2070 – Monitoring, cooperation, inventory, technologies giving us certainty, reduced need for public $, dry forest silviculture established, move to landscape focus

National perspective, 2070 • International / national carbon policy – cogent perspective, full global participation • National coordination – strong cooperative federalism, consistency and governance, compatibility of systems • Maximise CO2 window – limit concessions, forestry by-products, biofuel

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 65 • Land tenure, planning – reserves, acquisition, adaptive – new tenure regimes, veg management regimes • Population policy, carrying capacity • Identify future refugia and manage • Targeted strengthened quarantine – forest pests, biosecurity plan • National seed banks – comprehensive collection, join forestry and biodiversity seed banks • Genotyping plant material – potential for more plastic species • Prioritizing conservation of endangered species • Overarching adaptive management framework – all forestry types, e.g. RFA reviews, allowing silviculture / biodiversity changes to management • Monitoring (Meteorology, forest change responses) – nationally, consistent, focused, starts now, freely available • Forest adjustment – review and possible packages • Elevate forests as a political priority

A number of step changes were identified out of the worst case and best case activities that should guide future adaptation to climate change in Australian forestry: • Urgency, immediacy - adaptive management – quicker knowledge adoption • Landscape scale change, evolution, risks and resilience issues • Land, water squeezes or competition – press from inland by climate change, press from coast by competition for land from urbanisation, food production, biofuels; catchment basis of allocation • Estate / plot level evolution, adaptation • Demand, supply, productivity, profitability futures • Business / ‘forest products’ models, productivity futures for regions, forest types • Community perceptions, attitudes, ownership and support – community engagement • North-south rationalisation – biophysical, economic, infrastructure, • Ecosystem functions security, maintenance • Community viability with population shift, ageing • Institutional, policy response frameworks, removal or avoidance of perverse policy, incentives • Technical capacity – science practitioners, response managers – water resource science, climate science, social science, new learning programs needed for forests and forestry, productive landscapes learning

Step change activities from this list that are considered a priority are shown in Box 10.

Box 10: Priority stepwise activities identified out of the worst case and best case workshop activities. 1) Land/water squeeze on forests Long term outcomes 2 options – both water and land dependent • Market driven outcomes • Strong government policy framework Intermediate result • (none listed) Actions, activities • Reafforestation outside main food belts • Think long term consequences of policy settings • Elevation of issue in political priority • Better science

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 66 Foundational activities • Government property or private land, market driven outcomes on government land?

2) Community Support & engagement Long term outcomes • Highly engaged, equality in value and participation and activity involved • All types of knowledge valued, community acceptance of a common goal (sustainability, the forests are good) Intermediate result • Open access data base • Higher awareness of species and forest communities Actions, activities • Members of community on boards / management committees • Education / activities, people getting to know forests • Realigning political boundaries to natural catchment boundaries • Celebrate forests • Using good models to help build community involvement Foundational activities • (none listed)

8 Summary of findings

Adaptation options for climate change • A wide range of options for the forestry sector to adapt to climate change have been identified in this report, drawn largely from the published and unpublished literature and verified from the stakeholder interviews and social learning workshop. It should be noted that many adaptation strategies identified in this report are existing as responses to climate variability and management of risk. In fact, plantation forestry in many parts of Australia is already adapting to climate change through application of new practices to manage climate variability and climatic risk. The wide range of adaptation options evaluated in this report included: application of new and innovative land management approaches (e.g. site selection for plantations, reduced impact logging, fire and pest management, genetic adaptation), adoption of specific silvicultural practices (e.g. germplasm selection), enhancing social and community skills through increased knowledge and better planning for climate change. Future climatic conditions for most Australian native forests and plantations will be more challenging compared to many other regions of the world, as Australia is already dry with highly variable rainfall from year to year, coupled with generally poor soils. • The review of the literature has revealed that production forestry (native forests and plantations) has well-established options and strategies in place to deal with climate change and increasing climatic variability. There is also growing interest in adaptation options for conservation forests and these largely involve identifying future ‘refugial’ areas and building resilience to climate change through whole of landscape approaches, such as corridor systems for connecting forest reserves. Stakeholders are also demonstrating a strong interest in climate change adaptation for Australian forestry, across both the conservation and production sectors. However, there is still

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 67 a tendency for some stakeholders to confuse climate change adaptation (as defined in this FVA study) with climate change mitigation. Moreover, many of the adaptation strategies identified through the stakeholder interviews were not strictly strategies for adapting to climate change but were essentially strategies for adopting environmental sustainable land management practices. It would seem, therefore, that there is still a gap between the science of climate change adaptation in the Australian forest sector and the on-ground management of native forests and plantations for climate change. • Locations where forests can grow in the future may be limited by several factors identified in this report. In particular urban and peri-urban expansion with population growth into arable land will reduce the amount of available land for plantations in the future. Due to the higher cost of land in wetter parts of Australia, forestry is tending to move to drier areas due to cheaper land and perceived benefits of planting trees in such areas. These drier areas are particular vulnerable to anticipated future climate change. • Fire will become an increasingly important land management tool in the future, particularly in regard to regulating fuel loads and pest species. The use of fire will be most effective where fire- resistant species dominate the landscape, but will be much less effective in areas dominated by fire-sensitive forests, including rainforests. Long established fire management practices, such as fire and thinning that are part of the forest management cycle will change in their timing and frequency as management adapts to climate change. Stressed forests are more prone to disease and may be more vulnerable to pest and weed invasions. Management strategies to address threats of disease and pests will differ across Australia but may include using less- susceptible tree species, breeding of resistant strains, changing silviculture practices away from monocultures, selection of disease-resistant stock and enforcement of biosecurity methods, such as buffer zones. In regions like the south-west of Western Australia many of these land management practices are already in place in response to declining regional rainfall. • Several silvicultural practices have been identified that will be important under climate change. These include: adaptive management with suitable species and practices; selection at the provenance level and selective breeding; changes to planting times, planting densities and general stand management; and promotion of seed exchange and participatory genetic improvement programs across the industry. Potential resources for forestry to adapt to climate change that have and are being established across Australia are botanical gardens and arboreta. • A large number of adaptation options were identified from the stakeholder interviews, and these aligned well with those reported from the literature. These options were broadly grouped into: community engagement, forest land management (including silvicultural practices) and economic, planning and policy. However, it should be noted that many of the strategies identified from the stakeholder interviews are not strictly strategies for adapting to climate change but are essentially strategies for environmental sustainability in a land management context.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 68 Tools and guidance used to inform planning and policy for climate change adaptation • A large range of tools are available to assist the forestry sector with adapting to climate change, including biophysical, socio-economic and policy tools. These were identified from the literature (including those referred to in WPs 2 and 3), and through interviews with key stakeholders. On- ground monitoring and modelling tools will form the basis of biophysical tool kits to respond to climate change impacts. These range from the use of fire, thinning and other management techniques used in a forest management cycle to the use of sophisticated modelling tools, such as artificial neural networks, to predict vegetation change under various climate change scenarios. On the other hand, socio-economic tools tend to be used for modelling the impacts of climate change on linked natural and social systems at a broader level as well as those specific to the forestry sector. In particular, the total economic value (TEV) framework provides a useful approach for identifying the range of forest socio-economic costs and benefits of climate change. In particular, the TEV framework has potential for assessing the use and non-use costs and benefits of climate change adaptation for native forests and plantations. Many of the models and measurement techniques identified by the production and conservation sectors for use in climate change are focused on mitigation, but many have potential for use in climate change adaptation. • At a ‘planned adaptation’ level policy needs to provide the framework by which climate change adaptation is developed and implemented. The components that need to be considered in the framework are planning, legal and institutional arrangements, nature of the sector, ecosystem elements and linkages of climate change adaptation processes and technologies. There is currently little state and territory policy designed specifically for the adaptation of forestry to climate change. However, many policies related to water management and environmental sustainability are in place across the states and territories, which do address climate variability and forests and are relevant to climate change adaptation. • A number of tools and guidance approaches were identified by respondents during the semi- structured interviews. Tools included models used to determine forest growth, production, carbon storage under different climate change scenarios, and technology. Guidance included: planning documents such as action plans and business plans; collaborations; and sources of information, such as databases, inventories, research organisations and reports. • Models developed by CSIRO or government departments were in general used by both the forest production and forest conservation sectors, while larger forest organisations were or had developed their own models. Most of the models were for growth under different climate change scenarios and were being used to address questions on whether trees grow in a particular area or region in the future. However, the lack of reliable information about how tree growth will be affected by raised carbon dioxide levels had been a significant impediment to the development of growth models for assessing climate change impacts. • Computer-based modelling tools were being used widely across the forestry production sector to predict forest response to different variables such as rainfall and drought, and the potential for

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 69 sites to sustain good growth rates. These models have applications in both climate change mitigation and adaptation and there appeared to be some confusion among respondents about the differences between ‘mitigation’ and ‘adaptation’. • Few of the respondents had action plans specifically for climate change adaptation and many could be better described as action plans for climate change mitigation and environmental sustainability. Some of the action plans used to guide adaptive responses included inventories, use of historical data to assist in decision making and identifying gaps in the data. It was noted by the conservation sector that management plans and government submissions have a section on climate change in relation to threatened or rare species.

Vulnerability of forests and regions to climate change • The literature review (including an evaluation of WPs 2 and 3) showed that there is now a high degree of confidence that Australia is already experiencing impacts from climate change and that some adaptation is occurring in natural ecosystems and agricultural sectors that will benefit forestry. However, the ongoing vulnerability associated with extreme events such as fire, drought, floods and cyclones is high. Australia’s vulnerability to climate change has been realised in the last decade with substantial economic costs in many states due to extreme events. Adaptation is an on-going process that requires monitoring, reassessment of impacts and procedures against objectives and a response which may or may not require changes. Failure to respond may have significant environmental and economic consequences and increase the vulnerability of forests to climate change. • Enhancing adaptive capacity to climate change will essentially decrease vulnerability, increase resilience and promote sustainable use of forests and plantations. Australia has several well developed systems in place to manage climate change impacts, such as a well developed economy, extensive scientific and technical capabilities, disaster mitigation strategies and plans, and well developed biosecurity procedures. The forestry sector operates in a highly variable climate and, as such, adaptation is natural and on-going. Forest management also has a long history of adaptation through experience and scientific research and implementation. Hence, for the most part the Australian forestry sector has built its adaptive capacity to climate change over recent decades. In contrast to human systems, natural systems have low adaptive capacity to rapid climate change, notably evolutionary processes may be too slow for forests to adapt in time, biological systems may not cope with the rate of change, contractions of suitable habitat to grow forest will be an issue and increasing fragmentation due to past and present land-use change will limit migration of native forests in response to shifting climate zones. In addition, economic damage from extreme weather events is likely to create challenges for adaptation in the future. • Areas of Australia that are particularly vulnerable to climate change are, first, those where there is nowhere for forest ecosystems and their biota to migrate under climate change, such as upland rainforests in the wet tropics and, second, areas in northern and (especially) southern Australia

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 70 that are likely to become compressed in area due to sea-level rise on one side and increasing aridity on the other. For many areas of eastern Australia (where drying may be less severe in the future), effective options for supplementing adaptive capacity with actions such as restoring or developing migratory corridors, relocation or reducing other environmental pressures are extremely limited, notably suitable land is not available due to other land uses, including intensive agriculture, urban use, peri-urban expansion and transport networks. • Climate change predicted for Australia by 2030 may stress some forests further than they have already experienced over the past few decades. However, climate change by 2070 across most of Australia will be beyond that previously experienced by forests of today, creating significant stress on native forests and plantations. Stressed forests may not die but they will be prone to pests, pathogens and disease and their productivity will be reduced in most regions which will be an important consideration for the plantation industry. • Stakeholder perceptions of the vulnerability of Australian forests and forest industry to climate change were considered in relation to their exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change. Under the exposure domain, most of the responses came from the production sector and were related to key factors such as drought, fire and increasing climate variability and weather extremes. Others mentioned selling their assets in southern Australia and re-investing in the north in response to increased climate change exposure in the south. Exposure in most of southern Australia was often related to water scarcity and competing demands for water with the agricultural sector. The conservation sector identified the same exposure issues, notably droughts, other extreme weather events, fire and effects on forest processes. • Responses grouped under the sensitivity domain were also dominated by the production sector and included issues such as tree species selection for drier conditions, managing for pests and diseases and lack of skills in the industry to meet climate change challenges. The conservation sector identified a range of forest sensitivity issues, notably the need to establish a systematic broad-scale monitoring of forest ecosystems and how they are tracking over time. • To gauge the adaptive capacity of the forests and the industry to climate change we considered this under a series of theme areas: biophysical, conflicting priorities, knowledge, financial and policy/legislation. Respondents were asked to identify constraints and opportunities within these themes, with the greatest number of responses being in the area of biophysical and knowledge. As expected, for ecosystems and industry with high exposure to climate change, there were many more constraints than opportunities identified in their ability to adapt. A recurring constraint was how to manage increased drought and fire risk due to higher temperatures and lower rainfall. The ability to respond, re-establish elsewhere or to change species was considered a biophysical, financial and conflicting priority constraint by a large number of those interviewed. • Forestry is an industry based on certain species and this is a constraint to adapting to climate change in many parts of Australia. This is because the forest industry has to change the market

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 71 to introduce new species, which has substantial costs. Planning and policy are also constrained by lack of knowledge of species’ response to climate change and poor understanding of climatic variability.

9 Conclusions

This scoping study has produced a review of the adaptation strategies available for the Australian forestry sector to deal with climate change over the next 20 to 60 years and beyond. This Work Package has been based on an extensive review of the published and unpublished literature (including sourcing some material from WPs 2 and 3) and a qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders together with outputs from a stakeholder workshop. The focus of this Work Package has been to consider adaptation options for native forests and plantations, including tools and guidance available to inform planning and policy for climate change in both public and private forestry sectors. Finally, it includes an evaluation of regions where native forests and plantations are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the anticipated impacts of climate change.

a) Objective 1: Adaptation options for climate change

The main objective for this section of the report was to review adaptation options including planning and management strategies and mechanisms used to deal with both climatic variability and climate change in the forestry sector, including perceptions of climate change by stakeholders in the sector. A wide range of adaptation options for the forestry sector to adapt to climate change has been identified in this report, drawn largely from the published and unpublished literature and verified from the stakeholder interviews and social learning workshop. It should be noted that many adaptation strategies identified in this report are existing adaptations to climate variability. In fact, plantation forestry in many parts of Australia is already adapting to climate change through application of new practices to manage climate variability and risk. The wide range of adaptation options evaluated in this report included: application of new and innovative land management approaches, adoption of specific silvicultural practices, enhancing social and community skills through increased knowledge and better planning for climate change. Future climatic conditions for most Australian native forests and plantations will be more challenging compared to many other regions of the world, as Australia is already dry with highly variable rainfall from year to year. The review of the literature has revealed that production forestry (native forests and plantations) has well-established options and strategies in place to deal with climate change and increasing climatic variability. There is also growing interest in adaptation options for conservation forests and these largely involve identifying future refugia and building resilience to climate change through whole of landscape approaches, such as corridor systems for connecting forest reserves. Stakeholders are also demonstrating a strong interest in climate change adaptation for Australian forestry, across both the conservation and production sectors. However, there is still a tendency for some stakeholders to

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 72 confuse climate change adaptation (as defined in this FVA study) with climate change mitigation. Moreover, many of the adaptation strategies identified through the stakeholder interviews were not strictly strategies for adapting to climate change but were essentially strategies for adopting environmental sustainable land management practices. It would seem, therefore, that there is still a gap between the science of climate change adaptation in the Australian forest sector and the on-ground management of native forests and plantations for climate change.

b) Objective 2: Tools and guidance used to inform planning and policy for climate change adaptation

The main objective was to identify and review the current availability of tools and guidance used to inform planning and policy for climate change adaptation by forest managers in government, business and the NRM sectors. A large range of tools are available to assist the forestry sector with adapting to climate change, including biophysical, socio-economic and policy tools. These were identified from the literature (including those referred to in WPs 2 and 3), and through interviews with key stakeholders. On-ground monitoring and modelling tools will form the basis of biophysical tool kits to respond to climate change adaptation. These range from the use of fire, thinning and other management techniques used in a forest management cycle to the use of sophisticated modelling tools, such as artificial neural networks to predict vegetation change under various climate change scenarios. On the other hand, socio-economic tools tend to be used for modelling the impacts of climate change on linked natural and social systems at a broader level as well as those specific to the forestry sector. In particular, the total economic value (TEV) framework provides a useful approach for identifying the range of forest socio-economic costs and benefits of climate change. The TEV framework has potential for assessing the use and non-use costs and benefits of climate change adaptation for native forests and plantations. Many of the models and measurement techniques identified by the production and conservation sectors for use in climate change are focused on mitigation, but many have potential for use in climate change adaptation. At a ‘planned adaptation’ level, policy needs to provide the framework by which climate change adaptation is developed and implemented. The components that need to be considered in the framework are planning, legal and institutional arrangements, nature of the sector, ecosystem elements and linkages of climate change adaptation processes and technologies. There is currently little state and territory policy designed specifically for the adaptation of forestry to climate change. However, many policies related to water management and environmental sustainability are in place across the states and territories, which do address climate variability and forests and are relevant to climate change adaptation.

c) Objective 3: Vulnerability of forests and regions to climate change

The main objective was to identify the particularly vulnerable forests and regions on the basis of both potential impact and adaptive capacity. The literature review (including an evaluation of WPs 2 and 3) showed that there is now a high degree of confidence that Australia is already experiencing impacts

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 73 from climate change and that some adaptation is occurring in natural ecosystems and agricultural sectors that will benefit forestry. However, the ongoing vulnerability associated with extreme events such as fire, drought, floods and cyclones is high. Australia’s vulnerability to climate change has been realised in the last decade with substantial economic costs in many states due to extreme events. Adaptation is an on-going process that requires monitoring, reassessment of impacts and procedures against objectives and a response which may or may not require any changes. Enhancing adaptive capacity to climate change will essentially decrease vulnerability, increase resilience and promote sustainable use of forests and plantations. Australia has several well developed systems in place to manage climate change impacts, such as a well developed economy, extensive scientific and technical capabilities, disaster mitigation strategies and plans, and well developed biosecurity procedures. The forestry sector operates in a highly variable climate and as such adaptation is natural and on-going. Forest management also has a long history of adaptation through experience and scientific research and implementation. Hence, for the most part the Australian forestry sector has built its adaptive capacity to climate change over recent decades. In contrast to human systems, natural systems have low adaptive capacity to rapid climate change, notably evolutionary processes may be too slow for forests to adapt in time, biological systems may not cope with the rate of change, contractions of suitable habitat to grow forest will be an issue and increasing fragmentation due to past and present land-use change will limit migration of native forests in response to shifting climate zones. Areas of Australia that are particularly vulnerable to climate change are those where there is nowhere for forest ecosystems and their biota to migrate to under climate change, such as upland rainforests in the wet tropics, and suitable areas in northern and (especially) southern Australia that are likely to become compressed in area due to sea-level rise on one side and increasing aridity on the other. For many areas of eastern Australia (where drying may be less severe in the future), effective options for supplementing adaptive capacity with actions such as restoring or developing migratory corridors, relocation or reducing other environmental pressures are extremely limited, notably suitable land is not available due to other land uses, including intensive agriculture, urban use, peri-urban expansion and transport networks. Climate change predicted for Australia by 2030 may stress some forests more than already experienced. However, climate change by 2070 across most of Australia will be beyond that previously experienced by today’s forests, creating significant stress on both native forests and plantations. Stressed forests may not die but will be prone to pests, pathogens and disease and their productivity will be reduced in most regions which will be an important consideration for the plantation industry.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 74 10 References

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Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 85 Using MaxEnt [online]. Plant Protection Quarterly, Vol. 24, No. 3: 84-87. http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=735245080215807;res=IELHSS> ISSN: 0815-2195. [cited 19 Oct 10].

Wilson, R. and Tu rton, S. 2009. Cairns Case Stud y. In The im pact of climate cha nge on Australi an tourism de stinations-Developing a daptation and response strategie s. Sustai nable To urism Cooperative Research Centre. 56-124.

Woinarski, J., Mackey, B., Nix, H. and Traill, B., 2007. The nature of northern Australia. Natural values, ecological processes and future prospects, p. 128. ANU, Canberra.

Wood, K., Roiko, A., Waterman, P., Wallace, H. and Warrick, R. A. 2011. Establishing the need and consultation with key stakeholders in forest policy and management under climate change. Contribution of Work Package 1 to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment, Gold Coast, Australia, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.

Wood, S.A., Beringer, J., Hutley, L.B., McGuire, A.D., Van Dijk, A. and Kilinc, M. 2008. Impacts of fire on forest age and runoff in mountain ash forests. Functional Plant Biology. 35:483-492.

Youngentob, K. 2009. Where the wild things are. Remotely-sensed forest productivity tells us about species richness & abundance. Decision Point, 8-9.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 86

List of web sites used in report: http://adl.brs.gov.au/forestsaustralia http://www.agric.wa.gov.au http://www.anbg.gov.au/chabg/bg-dir/ (list of botanic gardens and arboretums in Australia) http://www.carbontrust.co.uk http://www.cmd.act.gov.au/arboretum http://www.daff.gov.au/forestry/plantation-farm-forestry/2020 http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/publications/nfp-statement http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/regions/ http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/regions/nsw_statewide http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/regions/qld http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/regions/tasmania http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/regions/wa http://www.dn.com.au/about.html http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrence.nsf/LinkView/2270213701D9AE6DCA2574350015F8F9554FC9C681B6CAB6CA2572C600036DB1 http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrenpa.nsf/LinkView/0488335CD48EC1424A2567C10006BF6DB4F254CBD292B50F4A256817002AFF40 http://www.farmkeeper.com.au http://www.farmworks.com.au/ http://www.fridayoffcuts.com/dsp_newsletter.cfm?id=330#1 http://www.getfarming.com.au/pages/farming/articles_view.php?fId=9200020090210123258 http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/climate-mitigation-and-adaptation.html http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx http://www.privateforestrysthnqld.com.au http://www.psystems.com.au/farmmap-1012.html http://www.qsrinternational.com/products_nvivo.aspx http://www.rbg.vic.gov.au/science/conservation-research/victorian-conservation-seedbank http://www.rbgsyd.nsw.gov.au/plant_info/pests_diseases/fact_sheets/armillaria_root_rot http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/01/2614134 http://www.microinsurancecentre.org

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 87 11 Appendices

Appendix 1 HREC – Approved Questions Used for Interviews

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility WP1 Forest Vulnerability Assessment (FVA) Introduction

• Introduction to the project and the subject areas that we will ask about. • Statement of Consent-according to HREC guidelines (will be sent out before interview).

• We will ask questions in 5 stages: 1. Major issues for your organisation 2. What is your knowledge of /awareness of climate change 3. What is your organisation doing about climate change 4. Demographic and background data 5. Availability for workshop

• How would you define your responsibility with respect to forest management in Australia within your organisation?

1. Major issues for your organisation a) What are the most pressing issues for your organisation for forest policy or forest management? NB. If participant indicates that their role is within policy, frame subsequent questions around policy, same with management.

2. Knowledge/awareness of climate change a) Describe briefly what words/images come to mind when you hear the phrase “Impacts of Climate Change”.

b) Which of these impacts (if any) are likely to influence the way in which forests need to be managed? Please elaborate.

c) Open – see what issues are raised from the above question and follow up on those in the first instance. If none mentioned, then prompt with those listed below.

d) On a scale of 1-5 (with 5 being very important) how important are these issues (list one by one) with respect to forest policy or management (Likert 1-5)?

List those mentioned by participant, and then prompt further if necessary with those from list below that they have not mentioned “What about the following?” Prompts: • Rainfall variability • Fire frequency • Dro ught • Weath er extremes • W eeds/pests

e) How do you currently manage these issues – repeat list above?

3. What is your organisation doing about climate change?

a) Do you have an action plan or are you aware of climate change adaption strategy?

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 88 (Perhaps use a Lichert scale 1-5 (5 very familiar)) b) Where on this scale?

c) Have you changed any of your management strategies (or policy approaches) in response to what you understand the impacts of climate change to be?

If yes, please explain how.

If not, do you plan to change any of your management strategies (or policy approaches) in response to what you understand the impacts of climate change to be?

Why or why not?

d) What types of constraints are there on your capacity to change any of your practices?

If required, prompt with constraints such as: • Finan cial/economic • Legi slative/policy • Knowledge – what types? (financial, scientific, time management) • Conflicting priorities / organisational needs

Ask for specific examples.

e) What types of strategies are affected by these constraints?

If none mentioned, prompt with the following management strategies: Modification of any of the following: • Specie s selection • Fire regime • Weed control practices • G razing patterns • Off-s ite conservation • Pest management strategies

f) What specific government policies influence your organisation’s response and planning for climate change?

g) What steps has your organisation taken to get involved in: • carbon sequestration • carbon credits • carbon trading

Please give details.

If asked, provide the pre-determined definition of these.

h) What other types of opportunities do you perceive to be available to plan or respond to climate change?

Query perceived effectiveness of these opportunities.

4. Demographics/background data. a) Title of position Make a note of gender

If participant is a forest manager – ask the following:

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 89 b) How big is the area of forest you manage (e.g. in hectares) c) What type of forest do you manage? e.g. national park, plantation forest, grazing lease, state forest, restoration forest, other d) What is the land usage of the forest that you manage? e.g. grazing, timber production, conservation, carbon credits, recreation, heritage values e) What is land tenure e.g. leasehold , freehold, national park, reserve, crown land, other f) How many people are involved in forest management in your organisation?

If the participant has a policy role within their organisation – ask the following:

g) How many people involved in forest policy in your organisation?

General h) Age category – [<25, 26-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65 or over] i) Person how long have you been involved in the forestry industry? j) How long have you been in your current position? k) What was your previous position? l) What is the size of your organisation? e.g. How many people are employed/involved in your organisation? m) What are your formal educational qualifications?

Note: Prior to commencing the process, all interviewers will first receive training from Dr Anne Roiko, who has considerable experience in conducting social research and community-based research, and data analysis.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 90 Appendix 2: List of Audio and transcript files from participant interviews

Document State Minutes Code A1 WA 47 A2 QLD 57 A3 SA 69 B1 QLD 65 B2 QLD 39 B3 National 40 C1 QLD 42 C2 TAS 90 C3 SA 55 C4 SA 39 C5 National 30 G1 SA 68 E1 National 41 E2 Qld 33 E3 NSW 43 E4 Vic 33 E5 NT 30 E6 NSW 39 E7 NT 30 E8 National 42 E9 VIC 31 E10 SA 57 F1 TAS 61 F2 National 42 F3 WA 50 F4 Vic 53 F5 TAS 46 F6 WA 37 G2 NSW 42 G3 QLD 41 G4 National 67 G5 VIC 70 G6 QLD 42 G7 National 63

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 91

Appendix 3: Community engagement strategies for climate change adaptation identified from interviews. Sorted by production then conservation Key: role: p=policy, m=management Community engagement

Domain Climate Zone Role Stakeholder comment

production Southern p As a government we support research into various areas - it's an incentive for Australia the research organisations to do stuff that will help business in the long run. Responses at the two levels. There's the emergency response stuff for significant events, right. Then there's the long term stuff, like trying to change the genetics of the industry or that sort of stuff which currently the states supporting by supporting the research organisations, with financial support and policy support.

production Southern m Community communication. I make a lot of progress by communicating with Australia landholders and community people so far as forestry is concerned because they don’t understand

production Southern p The other project, the 2020 project nationally I’m constantly involved in Australia workshops and discussions and submissions relating to climate change issues as they affect forestry.

production Southern m My strategy is to talk about it as much as I can with people and to emphasise Australia how much I believe in the need for long-term investment by people, not just government. Government rather than reducing the forest [extension] officer positions around the country, that they would increase them Continuing with the education

production Southern p & m Number of extension type activities initially to raise the awareness and promote Australia opportunities to landholders.

production National m We’re looking at opportunities to better introduce our members to the market when and if it exists. Co-operating you know more focus I guess in our own internal knowledge brokering systems on updates of what’s happening and what it might mean and looking for guidance from our members on where they see the pitfalls.

production National m One is to be engaged, government decision makers to make sure that’s done and make sure that all levels of government are aware of the changes that need to be made to actually allow our business to continue operating

production National m Off site. Well, we’re certainly looking at neighbour effects with respect to the weed spectrum and we would like to engage neighbours more in pest

conservation Northern m More openly and intentionally informing and educating our volunteers about Australia climate change and the impacts of climate change

conservation Southern p If you want to go to a national park there’s lots of signs with red lines through it Australia saying you can’t do this, you can’t do that. Forests are one of the few recreational sites in Australia where you can do just about anything and I think that as an organisation we see it as a great opportunity to raise awareness and engage people in the environment in I suppose a practical and experiential way. I think that we’re participating in the adaptation side of things and involving people in that and helping people understanding adaptation and also giving

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 92 people some sort of connection to forests where they might value them. Our major resource companies part of the partnership that we have is about running climate change workshops as you would know and looking at ecosystem resilience Engage people in ways that are meaningful to them

conservation Southern p Local media involved Australia Getting the arms and legs and working out where the land is and being nice people and working inside the farm gate

conservation Southern p We put volunteers into somewhere, actual people who volunteer. Australia Giving people both a broad understanding of the issues that they would confront in terms of local impacts of climate change, but more importantly, an understanding of what can [be done] by local communities. Use the site by allowing others to participate in access to activities on the site. So we’ve brought in the local community to a range of activities on that site. We’ve also brought in the corporate sector. We run a number of corporate days out for large corporations where they want to allow their staff to participate in this volunteer activity. They can come out to our site and they do in busloads and participate.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 93

Appendix 4: Adaptive strategies for land management identified from interviews that deal directly or indirectly with climate change: a = biophysical, b= disease, c=fire, e=silviculture, d=site selection, e= vegetated corridor, f=water management, and g=weed and pest management. Key: Role: p=policy, m=management; Status: u=in use, p=potential a. Biophysical

Domain Climate Role Stakeholder comment Status Zone

production Northern m About half of the forest that we run in northern Australia are native u Australia forests, the other half is plantation forests, and native forests are unavailable for clearing and they provide a wealth of natural biodiversity

production Northern p Biodiversity protection- achieve that through all our practices being u Australia undertaken according to a code of practice. It’s the code of practice for Native Forest Timber Production 2007

production Northern m Tie in the planting with the wettest period of the year and then u Australia they’re practically - unless there’s an early drying out they’re practically left to their own devices and if it starts to dry out too soon after planting, we [churn] water once or twice. Most of the time we don’t do any - after planting and watering, usually it’s done - we water the plants in at the time of planting and with a [wetting] solution at the same time

production Southern p Developed a series of landscape scale corridors u Australia

production Southern m Seed orchards that have become important for offsite conservation u Australia Collecting across a wide range of genetic variation for some of those more threatened species to go into the Millennium Seed Bank

production National m Part of the approvals for our plantations look at biodiversity and u maintaining the biodiversity so what we can actually establish on to land is taken into account So if there are some areas that we might have to clear for plantation establishment that biodiversity issue is looked at and then offsets or reserves are set aside to actually maintain the biodiversity.

production Southern p We have to manage biodiversity within remnant native vegetation u Australia pockets in all of our plantation bases. We have pledged as a company, despite the differing requirements in the different states in Australia, the company won’t plant anywhere there is remnant vegetation. And so when a new plantation space opens, a farm or something like that, the remnant that’s within it is mapped. And there are two people within the company who have the responsibility of looking for [unclear] species within that remnant vegetation and recording those and obtaining co-operation of local conservation organisations and so on. And some of the regions are very proactive about trying to involve local plant and bird conservation – organisations to monitor biodiversity within the remnant vegetation.

production Southern p & m Plantings in pasture landscape which will yield a biodiversity p Australia benefit

conservation Southern p & m The phenology changing…a broad scale monitoring program p

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 94 Australia

conservation Southern p & m Redistribution of species - should direct the way that revegetation u Australia programs are being planned because it may be possible to incorporate a component of kind of future species placement so being able to have access to models on where species are likely to redistribute to in the relatively short term, say in the next 20 years Translocate or source [provenances] for certain species that are still going to be there in that location in 20 years Introduce a small proportion of species which are connected to relocate to that particular location Some systematic broad scale monitoring of ecosystems and how the coupling of the systems is tracking over time Developing a biodiversity credit system so that land can be evaluated on its contribution to biodiverse communities so you get extra points if the land is located close - it’s in an endangered ecosystem if the land’s close to an existing large reserve, particularly linked to part of the corridor, so biodiversity credits around those

conservation Southern p Restoring in the most highly bio diverse fashion gives us the better u Australia result, not only from our own work but from what nature does on its own

conservation Southern p & m We have a seed centre which we’re progressively collecting seed u & p Australia from all of the many thousands of flora species across the state with a view to that being able to be used for recovery of species as a result of these sorts of impacts Vulnerability assessment

conservation Southern p The areas where we are [planning] biodiversity plantings, you’ve u Australia got the opportunity to adapt even if you can see in front of you things not working, we can go back and replant and [inaudible] not looking at [inaudible] harvest. We’re looking at the product being a functioning ecosystem and it may be a different ecosystem today but it still can be a functional one providing a whole lot of biodiversity values to a region.

b. Disease

Domain Jurisdiction Role Stakeholder comment Status production Northern p Proactive in the biosecurity matters on a regional and on a national u & p Australia level. production Southern p Change species – to those that are canker resistant u Australia production Southern m Selecting those varieties that provide better resistance to certain u Australia diseases and insects Developing new biological or other control mechanisms for new diseases or pests Broad research and development programs

c. Fire

Domain Jurisdiction Role Stakeholder comment Status

production Northern p Prescribed burning activities in the cooler months to help minimise u Australia the risk of fire

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 95 Collaborative arrangements with other agencies Monitor (contractors and leasees) what they’re doing where we are involved

production Southern m Research to address some critical uncertainties. I guess one of p Australia those for forest management has always been the difference between wildfire events and regeneration burn events Join part, of the carbon influx towers network, where we’ll be measuring carbon fluxes above the forest. We hope as part of that to be able to directly compare carbon fluxes in a forest that’s been regenerated from a clearfall burn Different landscape design to better cater for [inaudible] a problem is more than likely increased in position to a fire, particularly mega fires.

production National m More intervention in fire prevention p

production National m Perhaps counter crops (for weed invasion).. things that are going p to be quite drought resistant … and less likely to move out from the plantation … significant effect on the way that we manage fire breaks

production Southern m Encourage the farmer to graze the plantation and this makes a big p Australia difference on weeds and fire protection

production Southern m Lot of mulching u Australia

production Southern p & m Keeping up with the fuel reduction burns u Australia

conservation Northern m By reducing the litter around the large trees to lessen the chance of Australia them catching fire

conservation Southern p & m Back burn u Australia

conservation Southern p & m As (climate changes) change then you inherently change when you p Australia would undertake prescribed burning

d. Silviculture

Domain Jurisdiction Role Stakeholder comment Status

production Northern m Things you can do silviculturally, you know, to do with stocking p Australia production and wind firmness and orientation of plantations.

production Southern m Species selection - more of a bioenergy crop rather than a saw u Australia log crop.. cutting down on silviculture as that won’t be needed in a bioenergy crop ie. thinning we would be doing less

production Southern m Putting more drought tolerant species in areas that historically or u & p Australia previously would have grown higher rainfall species Stick with local Indigenous species because I think they’ve got more chance of adapting to climate change Particularly when it comes to thinning. You know, I think we tend to thin earlier rather than later Grazing the plantations with animals as soon as we can to keep

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 96 down the fuel load, grass fuel load (Weed control) reduce competition on the seedling so it can cope with that early dry, and early thinning

production Southern p Lower stocking u & p Australia Change in management practices, species, genetics and the resulting change in forest products from that; you can produce different genetics for different climates and you can manage crops differently for different climates and things, that's all possible Low rainfall species trials ‘Looked at what he thought the climate change projections would be for the change in temperature and rainfalls and tried to find species that would come from the areas of Australia that had – that already experienced that kind of rainfall and fire’ Bio sequestering carbon in non traditional forestry areas. You might plant hundreds or thousands of hectares of the Mallee farmland and use that in some way

production Southern p Change species p Australia

production Southern m Genetics suitability of species, a range of genetic suitability for a u & p Australia species Seed orchards that have become important for offsite conservation

production Southern p & m changing your genetic material p Australia

production National m Changing species p Changing harvesting times

production National m More robust process of species selection in anticipation of a p varying climate rather than just use what we’ve got because that’s what we always used to use in that area If we’re getting increases of rainfall in northern Australia it’s going to promote growth and will bring the timetable forward, and the converse would be if you’re in southern Australia if the predictions are the case where you would have slower growth rates and you’re probably need to put back your thinning, and the pruning as well.

conservation Southern p We’re chasing that new distribution with the species that we’re u Australia planting and anticipating changes in their range Stroked off the top five to seven centimetres of topsoil and we direct seed it into the substrate

conservation Southern p & m Sustained yield and regulating the yield of timber harvesting. So u Australia we monitor tree growth and obviously if that changes as a response to the multitude of climatic type factors that influence tree growth, then sustained yield will be adjusted accordingly

conservation Southern p Use of retaining materials in all of our plantings to get through u & p Australia those initial few years of pre-establishment Long term strategy of largely planting the lower tree canopy species such as wattles in the first instance along with a scattering of higher canopy eucalypts and as they get established what we want to do is go back and look at what are the understory species and grasses that need to be established and we’ve got a plan over a period of time and within the plan we’ve recognised that we need to continually look at this issue of are the species we’re planting

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 97 appropriate for a climate change scenario Genetic modification of plant species or breeding different stronger species or varieties that respond in a climate change

e. Site selection

Domain Jurisdiction Role Stakeholder comment Status production Southern m Re-establishment will be closer to the coast u Australia production National m Moving locations of forests if that’s possible p

production National m Adaptive trial and error process in my view, supported by some u & p informed science

conservation Southern p We’re purposely designing restored landscapes that are 700 u Australia kilometres long in a north south orientation to deal with the latitudinal change with climate change

f. Vegetated corridor Domain Jurisdiction Role Stakeholder comment Status production Southern p Physically planting or encouraging trees and vegetation to form u Australia movement corridors for wildlife and such life To encourage better land management practices generally for biodiversity purposes and almost anything that would contribute actually production Southern m With our native forest reserve systems being small they’re all u Australia rather isolated little islands so the main biodiversity activity is associated with linking those islands through a corridor system conservation Northern m Corridors and well, protecting the [unclear] zones and we work with u Australia the other part of [state] where stock routes provide corridors between areas that we manage conservation Southern p & m Biodiversity corridors are being set up across the state - five u Australia biodiversity corridors - taking account of the five major bioclimate regions. They want to increase connectivity of native vegetation so there will be active restoration as part of that Trial planting in the biodiversity corridors conservation Southern p What we did in the first instance was we said gee we’ve got some u Australia good remnants along this bit of road ... if we filled in a few gaps we could link .... for the first time in 120 years with a [bio link]. We did that in three years. That’s now expanded to 2800 kilometres of roadside revegetation and they’re now working on the private land filling in the patchworks. It’s simply because we’ve got local media involved, we got farming groups and it’s spread up and down that corridor around about. It’s become very engaging.

g. Water management

Domain Jurisdiction Role Stakeholder comment Status production Southern m Establishment techniques where row direction is important not only u & p Australia to drain excess water but it’s designed to capture the water rather than letting it run straight off the landscape production Southern m Looking at ways of storing moisture to be able to get the trees p Australia through the drought production National m Secured water rights but that’s another option in the long term p conservation Southern p You just don’t plant it if you know nothing’s going to grow. But u Australia when there’s enough soil moisture there we’re sort of committed to

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 98 give it a crack conservation Southern p & m Other main issue where the forest management plan will develop u Australia new policy and actions will be in the area of water. So at the moment there’s a large adaptive management role being undertaken looking at trying to increase stream flows in an active catchment being used for water supply

h. Weeds and pests

Domain Jurisdiction Role Stakeholder comment Status

production Northern m Biological control with nematode applications - ‘Nematode u Australia applications on a regular basis make the sirex issue not an issue at all. Yeah, so forestry is a leading example of the way that biological control can actually work with pests and diseases, with good management’.

production Southern m Cooperation and co-sharing with neighbours u Australia ‘Co-operation with neighbours, landholders, if there’s a rabbit or a fox issue the plantation owner will usually go in halves with the cost of putting a program together’

production Southern m Chemical, manual, fire and biological control u & p Australia ‘Chemical weed control; large woody weeds that invade our native forests we treat on a manual program or we use fire management techniques to control weeds; developing specific treatments for specific weeds using biological control approaches’

production Southern m Weed matt or manual u Australia ‘Weed mats; remove them manually with mattocks rather than spraying’

production National m Active watch with skilled foresters – ‘foresters on the ground that u know and recognise the diseases and specifically look at those and the management prescriptions’

production National m Counter weed invasion in gaps by planting with counter crops p or grazing ‘I think we actually need to be quite proactive about investigating various sorts of – perhaps counter crops and that sort of thing, things that are going to be quite drought resistant … and less likely to move out from the plantation looking for a big open space like a fire break to move into’. Allowing grazers to move into our plantations as a way of maintaining weed control and fire breaks

conservation Southern p Minimum tillage p Australia

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 99 Appendix 5: Planning and policy strategies for climate change adaptation Identified from the interviews. Key: role: p=policy, m=management; status: u=in use, p=potential Domain Climate Role Stakeholder comment Status Zone

production Northern p Integrated fire management plan and planning and processes and u Australia systems Code of practice for biodiversity conservation i.e. Code of Practice for Native Forest Timber Production 2007 Code gets reviewed every five years, that as part of the regulator auditing us, any changes in terms of climate change requirements, any significant issues that might be impacting on biodiversity or how that should be managed, should be being reflected in the reviews of the code of practice so that over time our being regulated to that kind of practice would change as the code and the requirements for maintaining biodiversity change

production Southern p Forests and Wood Products Australia that is the major research u Australia organisation for the forest industry and the CRC for forestry And the fact that some of the companies have headquarters in other places. So they will be getting directions and assistance from other – from their – some of them global, global companies

production Southern p Planning and policy need to consider what are the potential for p Australia farmers to be able to use forestry activities as a commercial activity on their farm to contribute to climate adaptation but also to carbon credit it to offset their emissions?

production Southern m Clients pay a dollar per hectare to protect their plantations u Australia

production Southern p & m I think what the conservation commission will do and quite p Australia properly, is now put together it’s information on climate change, so that when they come in three or four years time to start planning the 2014 forest management plan, they’ll have a basis of information on which they will adjust the yield and any other thing that’s necessary in forest management terms and put that into the plan. Everything here works around the forest management plan.

production Southern p & m Useful modelling about where trees could potentially be planted u Australia and be productive in the landscape. So that’s the whole of the landscape level, plus the private land in Australia. We’ve done it a couple of times, so we know where there’s – where we’re looking to put that in.

production Southern m Satellite imagery - the right mix of satellites up in the air to give us p Australia that balance between frequency of imagery and scale

production Southern m Money that comes out of long-term investment strategies is always u & p Australia the best money because it’s usually not being spent before it’s made, or there’s less likelihood of it I reckon they need some ministerial positions that are well funded for a start and then strategically I reckon that these departments need to be built up, manpowered up and to have the forestry extension officers that are paid by the Government but spreading knowledge within the private community amongst the farmers and so on and encouraging them to plant trees or forests – managed forests, I’m talking about now. I’m not talking about doing native revegetation because the Government seems to be encouraging that and I feel they should be encouraging managed plantations because over 100 year cycle I think that’s a more effective way of

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 100 addressing the resource issue and the climate change issue.

production Southern m Just making sure we submit to whatever paper – white paper, u & p Australia green paper there is in the whole area and try and keep the pressure on legislation and through our professional associations and so on to make sure that that voice is getting to Canberra along with every other voice

production National m We use external expertise u

production Naitonal m Draw attention to the likely risks of competing priorities u

production National m Well, everything has to go through a return on investment u & p In Queensland you’re probably aware some of the shires have adopted some rules about land use ... multiple users and I think that sort of thing could arise elsewhere. And I think that it’s unfortunate if multiple uses are discouraged because that’s often the best way to make the most efficient use of the land that is a limited resource and suitable land for forest planting is going to become a more limited resource probably as climate change progresses

conservation Southern p & m The phenology changing…a broad scale monitoring program p Australia

conservation Southern p & m Next forest management plan will be carbon storage, what’s the p Australia impact of the proposed new plan on carbon storage and what are the alternative scenarios and what would their impact be The vulnerability on biodiversity and things like looking at the reserve system, looking at the protection of [our refuge here]. And those key elements there will be an important part of the development of the next forest management plan and the response of those things to climate change. Other main issue where the forest management plan will develop new policy and actions will be in the area of water management in the south west forest.

conservation Southern p We can respond at a number of different levels. We do things like u Australia we invest in our seed supply and we invest in seed banks, we’ve got four of them - we’ve got them all over the country. I’m not trying to be derogatory about your project but unless we’ve got some very serious mitigation going on, you can adapt as much as you like, but it’s fruitless.

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Appendix 6: Planned adaptation i.e. action plan or management plan including a climate change component identified by production and conservation sectors under different jurisdictions and roles. Domain Climate Role Planned adaptation i.e. action plan or management plan including climate change Zone component Production Northern management Action plan – ‘at a corporate level ..., we’ve packed up our pencils and said, we can no Australia longer run profitable forests in central Australia and we moved to tropical Australia.’ Production Northern policy ‘Extensive input to the climate change action plan for forestry that’s been developed at the Australia whole of government level through the Primary Industries Standing Committee and QLD Natural Resource Management Standing Committee level. …actions that’re focused in the climate change action plan represent the ones that are on the DAFF, so that’s about adaptation, [unclear], bioenergy opportunities and inventory and data [unclear] gaps in the quantitative analysis of those areas.’ Production Northern management We haven’t – because we’re not actual forest managers, we don’t have a specific regime Australia to deal with plantations QLD Production Southern policy Not through our local project but we don’t have a specific strategy. There is actually a Australia climate change; there was a forestry climate change action plan which I was involved with that group so there is a specific forestry climate change action plan. Production Southern policy ‘We’re aware that it's a governmental policy in climate change plan being developed. So Australia we were waiting for that first. …we certainly are developing an industry development plan.’ ‘The perpetual thing, from my perspective, is that we and I think the industry, are all planning and thinking for things like climate change. They may not have those elements in place yet, those plans in place, but it's on the agenda. So I think it's a component of many things that we do.’ Production Southern management There are a number of activities identified in our business planning processes and our Australia strategic planning processes to work across specific activities related to climate change. have a corporate goal to manage climate change and develop adaptation techniques in a broad generic sense, but the adaptation activities are more operationally focused in terms of what we do in terms of how we manage our plantations, for example through our site preparation techniques and so forth like that. Production Southern policy In terms of adaptation we don't have a specific plan, but there's a plan under what was Australia previously Land and Water Australia, the CCRSPI Process, Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries. Production Southern management Our whole business is in effect an action plan for us. It is our response to climate change. Australia We are in the farm forestry field in business not for the timber or wood side of it but specifically for the sequestration aspects. If it wasn’t for climate change we wouldn’t be involved in it at all Production Southern management To a certain extent our business is an action plan to climate change. Basically we're Australia putting in trees in the ground as an effort to adapt to climate change. Production Southern management No action plan Australia Production Southern management A very substantial allowance was made for climate change in the current forest Australia & policy management plan… but they’ve got to work in 10 year steps. Production Southern management We don’t have an organisational position as such, but we had a review which was handed Australia & policy down just before Christmas last year and there were three key actions and the second one was carbon climate change, so the organisation’s in the process of developing [unclear] acquisition or an action plan. Production Southern management No, we don’t have an action plan climate change, but we have had some vigorous Australia & policy discussion and some papers prepared for our board so we can get a policy in place, if you like Production National management Long history of working in climate change and agriculture…Now obviously the Government has an action plan for climate change and the department has programs under climate change … It’s a high profile policy issue in this department. Production National management Part of public policy Production National management I wouldn’t say a specific action plan but we’re certainly working through some of the risks that climate change presents and how it might affect our business. Production National management Action Plan: ‘Well, I’ve been given the responsibility to formulate one. That certainly means that we’re looking into biodiversity reservoirs, monitoring to a greater extent. We’re looking at pest and disease monitoring response. We’re looking at carbon

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 102 mitigation planting and we’re looking at ways that are genetically [unclear] and silviculture may need to be modified or tested with respect to various sorts of other extremes.’ Conservation Northern management outlined some general directions that we believe need to be pursued to make the Australia rainforest more resilient to the risk of climate change Conservation Northern management ‘Submissions to cabinet all have to have climate change – there's one whole component Australia of [unclear] the template that deals with climate change and the project or the initiative that you're putting out, or decision you're putting up, what the climate change implications are. Further to that, with our management plans, we prepare management plans for our parks and forests that they all have a climate change component to them.’ ‘sustainability initiatives in all our parks and forests for water conservation, energy conservation etc.’ Conservation Northern management ‘Should have an action plan, but I'm not aware of it’. Australia Conservation Southern policy We have an action for climate change program which is an external program that aims to Australia engage people I suppose in awareness raising and involvement and funding support. Conservation Southern policy Funded ‘to prove up our sequestration science with the view to only planting for carbon in Australia sort of 10 biodiversity hotspots in the country’. ‘ Conservation Southern policy Management policy and behavioural perspective - Australia We have an action plan which deals with our volunteer programs taking into account, both in the biophysical world and conservation world. We’re taking into account in our organisation of the plantings on our own land and we are taking into account in the way the organisation projects itself to the community and the community workshops. We’ve effectively put ourselves into a continuous adaptation mode even though that probably isn’t apparent even to some of our staff and it certainly wouldn’t necessarily be apparent to the volunteers. But if you explained what they’re doing and why they’re doing it, then they would quickly comprehend that in a policy sense we actually have moved into continuous adaptation. We are watching what’s going on, we’re responding in a consultation sense in our preparedness to get out there and talk with communities to explain how we are doing things and how they can do things. Conservation Southern management ‘There aren’t any action plans as yet so the actions are being developed through the Australia & policy program plans’. Conservation Southern management ‘Some adaptation strategies which we use in response to climate change, for example, in Australia & policy terms of sustained yield and regulating the yield of timber harvesting’. Conservation National policy How we’re managing climate change at the moment is we are just finalising a overarching climate change strategy for the Parks Australia Estate. Out of that we’ve got five objectives and those objectives cascade down into park specific climate change strategies which we’ve got drafts just being finalised for Kakudu, Booderee and the Botanic Gardens here Conservation Southern policy Identified key variables & production Australia Conservation National management Experience - reasonably long history of working in climate change impacts & production

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Appendix 7: Collaborations Identified by policy and management in the production and conservation sectors. All but one (Tasmania, management & policy) were identified as active and formal, however, not all were defined as specific to climate change adaptation issues. (In accordance with our ethics agreement names of organisations that identify respondentshave not been included). Domain Jurisdiction Role Organisations and partnerships Production Northern management 200 development type groups and were involved in most Australia Production Northern policy Member of a number of forest industry organisations - working within those groups Australia on climate change. Production Northern policy University – proposal climate change research on carbon storage Australia Production Northern management Forest industries AP3 and NAFI; AgForce to improve the management of private Australia native forests Production Southern policy Locally: Department of Primary Industries, with State and Regional Development, Australia with State Forests and with the Department of Energy and Water and with the Catchment Management Authorities. Nationally: host of organisations, APPP, DAFF. All the state and territory governments - directing the 2020 project Production Southern policy State Forest Industry; Forestry and Climate Change Committee which is a Australia ministerial council and commonwealth Production Southern management Mining companies because of potential geothermal - access to geothermal - sites Australia underneath our plantations; research and development corporations; Southern Tree Breeders Association, [A3P] our industry association – in relation to tree breeding strategies; industry cooperative basis for fire management Production Southern policy Forestry groups, all levels of government, Commodity Council Organisation Australia Production Southern management Strategic alliance with private carbon broking company Australia Production Southern management Companies in bioenergy; Australia Forest Growers AFG Australia Production Southern management Farm Group , NRM groups, Catchment Councils, Greening Australia Australia

Production Southern management & No collaborative arrangements in relation to climate change Australia policy Production Southern management & CSIRO (EcoSystems); Cooperative Research Centre for Forestry; extension-type Australia policy activities with Australian Forest Growers; various private forestry companies (relating to adaptation); partnership activities with a whole range of forestry bodies researchers, National Resource Management Production National management University; AP3

Production National management Past with CSIRO on climate change issues; current Bureau of Rural Sciences, CSIRO, various State Government agencies, State Government Forestry Department Production National management Australian Plantation Products and Paper Industry Council - APPPIC, government, various consultants Conservation Northern management Department of Environment Resource Management, the Office of Climate Change, Australia University, CSIRO, CSIRO Conservation Southern policy & Three universities; NCCARF; probably collaborating with somewhere in the region Australia management of 25 scientists from different universities and agencies around the country, places like CSIRO, Australian Museum Conservation Southern policy DPI, State Forest Depatment ,DCCW. Certainly we work with Parks and again the Australia links to climate change is certainly there but if you said it was a direct partnership on climate change and forestry I would say no. Conservation Southern policy CSIRO, local universities; Greening Australia, WWF and Wilderness Society, Australia Friends of the Earth, local Catchment Management Authorities, local indigenous people, tertiary institutions, local parks,. As project managers - we’re the service delivers.. sit around the table with whoever wants to help us identify key areas, key

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 104 species and key zones with the design and help us build the design. Conservation Southern policy Park Services, community organisations in the region LandCare, the flora and Australia fauna groups, the local bushfire council, the feral species groups, Sporting Shooters Association (control the larger pest species); Bush Heritage Fund or the Australian Wildlife Conservancy Conservation Southern policy & Coordinate a program with CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, other state agencies Australia management Universities, also through the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry at the Federal level . Key: Australia Forest Growers AFG which is the national incorporated association for private forestry; Department of Agriculture Forest and Forestry DAFF; Australian Plantation Products and Paper Industry Council - APPPIC; DCCW Department of Climate Change and Water; A3P Australia’s plantation products and paper industry; CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

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Appendix 8: Level of vulnerability of Australian forests By region, without adaptation to the predicted impacts of climate change in 2030 and 2070. Key: L=Low, M=medium and H=high Forest Factor Trend Region 2030 2070 Reference Conservation Plantation (1deg C) (>3deg C) Abiotic Temperature increase affected - northern - Wet M H Hilbert et al. 2001; Metcalf Tropics and Ford 2008

Rising sea- increase affected affected northern & L H NCCARF Workshop 19 Nov levels and southern 2010 increasing aridity inland Fire intensity & increase affected affected northern & M H IPCCb 2001 frequency southern drought increase affected affected northern & H H Metcalf and Ford 2008; southern Steffen 2005; WP1, & WP2 Cyclone increase affected northern L M WP2 case study damage and weed proliferation Biotic Biodiversity decrease affected northern - L H Williams and Hilbert 2006 Wet Tropics Dieback increase affected northern - M H Gadek 1999 Phytophthora Wet Tropics cinnamomi Dieback decrease affected affected southern - sw L L Booth and Jovanovic 2005 Phytophthora WA cinnamomi Stem canker increase affected affected southern Booth and Jovanovic 2005 Botryosphaeria sp. Leaf fungus increase affected affected southern L L WP2; Booth and Jovanovic Mycosphaerella 2005 attacks eucalypts Soil-borne increase affected affected northern & M H WP2 fungus southern Armillaria luteobubalina Broom Genista increase affected affected southern M M Potter et al. 2009 monspessulana and Cytisus scoparius Eucalypt spp. decrease affected affected northern & Hughes et al. 1996 southern Insect pest - increase affected southern M H WP2 Chysomelid 6 plantation increase affected northern -se L Battaglia et al. 2009 species Qld 6 plantation decrease affected southern - sw H Battaglia et al. 2009 species WA Production of decrease affected southern - Battaglia et al. 2009 P. radiata NSW

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 106 Ips grandicollis increase affected southern M H WP2 case study (Fivespined Bark beetle) on plantation pine Miconia (weed increase affected northern M H Murphy et al 2008 a,b see that colonises WP2 case study gaps in rainforest) Pinus increase affected southern M H WP2 case study plantations to Sirex noctilio (wood wasp) Asparagus spread affected northern WP2 case study asparagoides (southern (bridal creeper) Queensland)& southern (Tas) Socio-economic Weed increase affected - northern - Wet H H WP2 case study infestation and Tropics impact on tourism Demand for decrease affected - northern - Wet H H Wilson and Turton 2009 rainforest Tropics tourism Small regional negative - affected northern & M M WP3 communities southern Forest negative affected northern & M H WP3 ecosystem southern services Timber unknown affected northern & L H Boisvenue and Running 2006 production southern in WP3

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Appendix 9: Stakeholder comments on exposure, sensitivity and changed paradigms from interviews. Note - Duplicate entries of ‘domain, jurisdiction and role’ are associated with different interviews. Key: Domain = conservation or production; role = management (m) or policy (p) exposure*domain

Domain Climate Role Stakeholder comment Zone

production Northern p With drought and fire, the main area of concern is Cypress and if I’m looking over, Australia say, a 15 to 20 year time frame, I would rank both drought and fire actually fairly highly Both rainfall variability and I guess that’s about extremes and lows. Both of those – I guess, the part of rainfall variability of the drought that I’ve been looking at impacts us mainly on fire, but it can also effect the growth of, particularly, Cypress trees and can lead to [deaths] in Cypress. In times of drought we do have to undertake salvage sales of drought-affected timber. Stands just start to die off of drought. I guess the weather extremes though of high rainfall, that can impact on us as well that at times when you do have high rainfall that impacts on the road network. It impacts on the harvesting but also it’s the variability aspect of seasonality of rainfall and where we traditionally know right well this is a dry season and this is a wet season.

production Northern m We’ve actually sold out of assets in the south and bought assets in the north because Australia of the issues around climate change in the south. Because those issues are to do with what the world is saying is climate change, or whether these are changes in the weather that we have been noticing over the last 10 or 15 years and may or may not reverse themselves, but at this stage, yeah, those rain events and climate events of southern Australia made growing commercial forests pretty bloody difficult.

production Southern m We look at increased risk going into dry areas because existing dry areas are Australia probably more, trained to drought events in the future.

production Southern m As far as hardwood’s concerned, the blue gum variety loves to access water so …. Australia once the standing resources have been harvested, the re-establishment will be closer to the coast due to, probably in the last eight to 10 years there’s been a noticeable drying of winter rains greater than a hundred kilometres from the coast. What I can see is that it will actually contract to closer to, within a hundred Ks or between a hundred or 90 Ks of the coast because the rainfall patterns have changed.

production Southern m I think particularly we’re looking at damaging winds, storm events. A particular threat Australia for us in our plantations, but also to some extent in native forests. We have very sophisticated systems for detecting damage that’s affecting the health of our plantations; we don’t yet have a system that we can use cost effectively in native forests. So there is the risk that drought affecting native forests may go undetected for periods of time.

production Southern p Then (further pressure on water with climate change) some say well that might mean Australia we have to clear fell our commercial plantations and not replant. It's more that the water supply is available to them.

production Southern p & m fundamentally means drying out. But ...been drying out for thousands and thousands Australia of years in a slow and steady sort of way. I think rising temperatures will change ecosystems, probably more at the extreme end of things, so the extreme condition rather than the average.

production National m Again droughts are – we’re growing an agricultural crop so drought has an impact on those. The company has made a conscious decision in terms of where we locate our plantations, so we don’t establish our plantations in areas that are having less than

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 108 900 millimetres per annum of rainfall and they’re not that far from influences of coastal – actually they’re within 100, 150, 200 kilometres of a coastal area in most of our locations.

conservation Southern p & m Drought … extreme climate events. What we are seeing is some die off of a few Australia species particularly tree species in certain locations. Fire’s a big one so we’ve got a big program in the state to now back burn .

conservation Southern p Dryness, for example you look at the Blue Gum populations down in the south-west. Australia Now they’re unviable economically but they’ve unviable probably ecologically if they’d been a fire through some of it as well and given the dryness indices in south-western Victoria, some of those [unclear] populations are at entire risk. All we know currently is that our forests haven’t been this dry probably for 10 decades. The propensity for...to light fires than it’s ever been and there’s more of them. Our capacity to manage hotter fires is reducing all the time as well. Economists don’t understand that nature doesn’t work in smooth curves and straight lines. When you’re working in the natural resource management area nature works in step changes, up and down, but under climate change there’s a fair bit of down. The way that funds are delivered which meet the budgetary cycle, are fundamentally out of sync with where the capacity is to deliver the outcomes that government desperately wants when it wants them

sensitivity*domain

Domain Climate Role Stakeholder comment Zone

production Northern m Moving from one area of the world to another necessitates that you look at what Australia species you can plant, because it’s not only just the temperature change, the rainfall change, soil, markets, the whole range of activities around plantation changes, and so if you go from temperate Australia, tropical Australia, you cannot grow the same species.

production Southern m Linking sustainability of agricultural production with reforestation Australia Trees going in the ground not only to adapt to climate change, but also to try and drive sustainability in agricultural systems

production Southern m The species selection, I think that’s probably the most crucial issue because even if Australia things go extremely dry we’re still going to want to grow trees and I think that identifying the species that we want to grow is going to be very important. Ones that are resilient to that reducing rainfall over time once they’re planted Historically forestry’s exposed to the potential for fire damage more than say some agricultural pursuits. Tree and forests are vulnerable to fire in the early stages but become more resilient as they age so those that are advanced in age and the trunks are pruned up high are most resilient.

production Southern p If there was a new pest or a disease came over the horizon, that [unclear] or Australia something related to climate change, I'm sure once there was understanding and knowledge amongst our elected government that new legislation could be brought in, very quickly actually. People could respond quickly, but the adaptation would take a long time. We would get more pests than diseases.

production Southern m In their first two years is critical as far as insects are concerned. The major insect Australia that does the most damage down this end of the world is saw fly. Some companies have tried to not spray and the trees have really suffered as far as being productive.

production Southern m We do know, we’ve got some measurements which tell us that when we get a Australia rainforest developing under these high altitude forests, typical of the central highlands, that the eucalypts with that rainforest understorey are under more water stress than eucalypts under a more shrubby understory, the short pricklies.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 109 Your sensitivity to things like the height of the trees in the forest when you thin them is clearly a risk factor. The higher they are, the more risk of windthrow. So in very windthrow risk prone areas we might try and thin earlier, or if we can’t do that we might do thinning over two stages to reduce that [sail] effect of a rapid exposure of the [stand] to thinning.

production Southern p & m We’re an ageing lot, there’s a different skill set required, we already have a few Australia empty spots which we can’t get money to fill. So we have a challenge in front of us, and that challenge is a different challenge than we had in the past, and we do need a slightly different skill set. And it’s been difficult to get that altogether.

conservation Southern p You don’t know what’s normal anymore. So we’re having to be very adaptive in the Australia delivery of our own work programs and it’s not seat of the pants. It’s comes with a high level of intellectual property and understanding about the local environments where we’re endeavouring to do our work.

conservation Southern p the right sort of ideas, the right sort of projects, the right sort of communications and Australia marketing, I actually think that we have huge opportunities.

conservation Southern p & m The migration of species with a lot of the phenological issues - we don’t know which Australia clusters of species are going to change, which direction they’re going to change in, which ones are going to remain static. I think that’s much more about monitoring to, so we need some systematic broad scale monitoring of ecosystems and how the coupling of the systems is tracking over time. We had a eucalypt species go locally extinct in the northern Flinders Ranges after one of those very hot periods two years ago.

changed paradigms

Domain Climate Role Stakeholder comment Zone

production Southern m Linking sustainability of agricultural production with reforestation Australia Trees going in the ground not only to adapt to climate change, but also to try and drive sustainability in agricultural systems

production Southern m I do at the moment, and in my latest plantation project I’m advocating that people Australia choose only local Indigenous species because I think that they are likely to be more resilient than other apparently better performing species from elsewhere. For instance we could grow spotted gum or Tasmanian blue gum on this property, and I’m not going to recommend that we do that. I’m going to recommend that we stick with local Indigenous species because I think they’ve got more chance of adapting to climate change.

production Southern m The removal of fire with European settlement, of a regular burning practice, has let Australia many of those areas develop a rainforest understory. That’s imposed an additional water stress on the eucalypt. So there’s the identification of that need to get fire back into some of those systems, not yet having come up with a way of effectively doing it.

production Southern m Seed orchards that have become important for offsite conservation…We do have Australia good genetic resources maintained in our seed orchards.

production National m Rainfall - the company has made a conscious decision in terms of where we locate our plantations, so we don’t establish our plantations in areas that are having less than 900 millimetres per annum of rainfall Extreme weather events- We experience those now in the north coast of New South Wales. Again it’s relative, isn’t it? I mean, if you’re talking about moving from severe storms to hurricane force storms then that’s what we’ll have to deal with but the majority – our plantations again – and it’s maybe not fortuitous but again those sort of storms, severe storms, tend to be ranged [unclear] the 50 to 100 kilometres of coast. So again we see our plantations areas and those sorts of things maybe a little bit

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 110 removed from those.

conservation Southern p You don’t know what’s normal anymore. So we’re having to be very adaptive in the Australia delivery of our own work programs and it’s not seat of the pants. It’s comes with a high level of intellectual property and understanding about the local environments where we’re endeavouring to do our work.

conservation Southern p The right sort of ideas, the right sort of projects, the right sort of communications and Australia marketing, I actually think that we have huge opportunities.

conservation Southern p & m Redistribution of species - should direct the way that revegetation programs are being Australia planned because it may be possible to incorporate a component of kind of future species placement so being able to have access to models on where species are likely to redistribute to in the relatively short term, say in the next 20 years… Or maybe introduce a small proportion of species which are connected to relocate to that particular location. In terms of prediction of distribution and redistribution of species and incorporating bioclimatic and demographic models. There’s not only the redistribution of species but it’s identifying in the landscape which areas are going to see a lot of pressure. So there’s those areas that have been cleared and those areas where there’s going to be quite a lot of demand in terms of the redistribution of species. Those are the areas that we’ve got to be really targeting for restoration practice.

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Appendix 10: Biophysical, conflicting priorities, financial and governance constraints Affecting adaptive capacity of the forests and forest industry to respond to climate change. Key: b=biophysical, p=conflicting priorities, f=financial, g=governance - policy/legislation; Role: management=m, policy=p Adaptive capacity constraints*domain

Domain Area Climate Role Stakeholder comment Zone

production b, k Northern m Land availability is the biggest single issue Australia

production b, f, g Northern p A lot of our roads get closed over the wet season so we can’t actually access our Australia properties with, in some cases, even light traffic. So the setting up of infrastructure

production b Northern p Drought and fire… my reason for picking drought and fire is that in the south, the Australia temperatures are expected to increase but rainfall isn’t expected to increase, as opposed to if I had a more north Queensland focus where I’d probably have a different outlook. ….Rainfall variability is important but I may have linked that, though, with drought. It’s more the effect of rainfall variability in terms of impacts, potentially, on the drying out of our fuel loads and our potential fire risks Most forest trees for us, say if they’re hardwoods like Eucalypts or Corymbia have to be 30, or more likely 40, years of age before they’re of a commercial size and for Cypress they’re often more of about 80 years of age or over

plantation b Northern m When you look at the results of any assessments of timber plantings in sub Australia 700mm rainfall and after five or 10 years you’ve got a couple of bloody curly looking sticks sticking out of the ground and they sure haven’t got too much carbon in them.

plantation b Northern m I think there could be a connection between some of these infections and Australia showing symptoms of disease and the extent of the susceptibility might be heightened by pest levels in Central Queensland induced by periods of inundation But the high levels of rainfall over a three to four month period that we’re having in Central Queensland followed by long dry spells before the next heavy rainfall events at the end of the year, cause the trees to go from a stressed level for three to four months of water inundation, then dries out very quickly to drought stress, very little rainfall in between. Now, some years you might get some rain occasionally throughout that but most of the years we have dry spells, so you go from stressed to stressed

production b,p Southern p The biggest threat is the threat of fire, with increased temperatures, increased Australia storm activity and so forth. I mean that raises a whole lot of concerns about production forests being converted into national parks and the relative fire fighting capacity of and access for fire fighting capacity in production forests versus national parks. That’s of considerable concern for me in this area. So I think that’s something from a policy perspective that really needs to be looked at if we’re going to start fading out of native forestry in preference for plantation forests. Native forests are going to be put into reserves or parks. I see a significant threat, a fair dinkum fire threat with climate change.

production b National m Increases in temperature across the country and for forestry in particular the potentially increases in pest and disease incidence and bushfires Is there going to be sufficient rainfall across the country to maintain forests in the areas that they’re in at the moment or are we going to see a shift in forests

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 112 potentially to the north of Australia, particularly in plantations?

production b National m Given the length of the crop rotation, it’s capacity to continue to flourish in a changing imprint in a variable climate

production b,f Southern p Long rotation pines for instance, if you want to introduce new genetic stock, the Australia rotation is 37 years so if you wanted to put new genetic stock in the field, it's going to take that long to replace your growing stock; The concern with native forest is the species – the change of species or the species lost.

production b, f Southern m Arising from climate change is the risk that are attached to that such as pests Australia and diseases, fire management, loss of productivity and/or worse and I guess secondly the unknown benefits in terms of increased growth or more favourable growing conditions over a broader area Biggest change there will be associated with maybe extended fire seasons rather than necessarily increasing the amount of resources. The reason why I’d say fire is not higher is because we’ve already had an experience where we’ve lost 25 per cent of our plantation as say 20 odd years ago and that’s not a function of climate change

production b Southern m Contract to closer to, within a hundred Ks or between a hundred or 90 Ks of the Australia coast because the rainfall patterns have changed Blue gum plantation - I think there’s been three to date where actually can see on a day of high fire danger actually how they behave in a fire situation. Those three instances have made it quite clear that blue gum plantations do react differently in fire situations compared with the natural surrounding bush. When you put the two together it’s very unpredictable. What that does it gives the undergrowth a boost of growth and then it’ll dry out very quickly so rather than being a usual predictable fuel load, it actually spikes and gives you pockets of very high undergrowth and makes fire behaviour come December/January very difficult to manage. I guess the other part that needs to be mentioned is that with such a high rainfall this month regarding fire breaks it’s very difficult to actually get machines onto fire breaks at this point in time. Timing is a big issue as well as far as trying to manage your fuel levels in the plantation and outside the plantation. First major constraint is that being a forest where the trees are rooted into the ground, you can’t pick up and move somewhere. Where would you go to and the cost of relocation would be incredible not only for us but also for our customers.

production b Northern p & m There is no real quantification at the moment of the growth potential of species Australia across the environment in the tropics and sub-tropics so the growth rates that are being predicted and the growth rate now that we’re finding don’t align very well and that’s a critical issue that needs to be addressed. Funding shortfalls is always an issue the more money that you can throw at growing trees, the more quickly [unclear] varieties out there that will [unclear] adapt with the climate change but also to able to sequester the carbon You've got increased incidence of pest and disease, you're going to have greater impact of insects [unclear] insects because there's going to be more years where they'll actually be able to be active because temperatures are likely to rise, you're going to have increasing incidents of boring type insects because as the tree gets stressed, they then emit extra chemicals then attract borer-type insects and so you going to end up with more trees that have got holes in them and when we are trying to both a, accumulate carbon or sequester carbon, having trees that are full of holes and maybe therefore being more attracted to the yellow tailed cockatoo because their favourite food happens to be the giant wood moth is not going to be a desirable thing When I moved from the subtropics to the tropics, the weeds problem becomes a bigger issue the further north that we actually go and so we’re thinking about increased temperature and therefore increased season for potential weed growth

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 113 and then extra weed growth could become a real issue Consider more intense rainfall events that might occur, storms etcetera is what sort of policies do you actually bring in when you actually putting in trees into a property. Having a bare earth policy where you actually then try to manage the weeds completely, if you have that policy in place and you have a very severe rainfall that comes along, then you're going to end up with all your soil down the bottom of the creek and so having to adapt to these more intense rainfall events are something that we have to consider for the future Spacing is going to be absolutely critical when you are trying to grow trees out in the land which is better or more readily available to sequester carbon, you're spacing of those plantations is going to be an essential management tool Forests are considered to be water users and since water is such a high premium these days, even though it might be a fallacy

production b Northern m I think there could be a connection between some of these infections and Australia showing symptoms of disease and the extent of the susceptibility might be heightened by pest levels in Central Queensland induced by periods of inundation.

production b Southern m Weeds/pests – continual pest. Don’t think there is anything new we are doing Australia because of climate change, just a continual process when establishing forests – overall scheme of establishing

production b National m The capacity to predict and develop solutions to increased pestilence from climate variability, and the impact that climate variability may have on water availability and the onsite and offsite impacts of that, both positive and negative, and both in terms of water quality and water quantity In a higher rainfall sense, will that increase the imposition of disease, pest, fungus and will reduced rainfall put the tree crop under stress and already existing pests maybe less resistant by the crop because they’re stripped and can’t grow at them The increased rain and heat will likely to increase weed impact. There might be some new weeds that we won’t otherwise anticipate to be in that area and do we have effective and economic solutions to control those weeds?

production b National m The unpredictability of the rainfall makes it a lot more difficult to plan for the fire season and planting times and silvicultural operations for minimum risk Most disease organisms in their normal habitats are in association with other things that keep them in check. As the changes in climate result in niches being extended and new exotics are introduced into new places, their control factors don’t necessarily travel with them. For example, some of the pests and diseases may be able to jump to a greater extent from one forest island to another, and animals or plants that keep them in check may have a little bit different tolerance to the various sorts of new weather extremes that are experienced

production g Southern m All-embracing policy or strategy for weed management on state forest, and it’s a Australia complex issue because there are two problems. We have native weeds which compete with our commercial species, and we have exotic weeds which degrade both the commercial value through competition and also the biodiversity value

production g Southern p & m I would hope that the public is more tolerant of plantations and they’d more Australia accepting of plantations on agricultural land because, in effect, the trees aren’t grown only for wood, they’d be also grown to soak up carbon

production b, f Southern p & m We’re a little bit concerned about weeds. We already have some fairly nasty Australia weed sets down here, and climate change will affect some of those I suspect, the way they perform and operate. We have looked around with another range of [unclear] species to add to the one or two that we use down here. And we have been playing around with some of the other eucalypt species. But quite frankly, the reality is that there’s an industry based on a particular range of species and that’s what we’ve got to deal with

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 114 production b Southern m Constraints are that we can't, with confidence, move into new areas which are Australia potentially at a high risk of drought or climate variability. So it restricts the way that we can move our business, if it moves into regions which have potentially high variability in the future we can't go there.

production p Southern m Need some ministerial positions that are well funded for a start and then Australia strategically I reckon that these departments need to be built up, manpowered up and to have the forestry extension officers that are paid by the Government but spreading knowledge within the private community amongst the farmers and so on and encouraging them to plant trees or forests – managed forests, I’m talking about now. I’m not talking about doing native revegetation because the Government seems to be encouraging that and I feel they should be encouraging managed plantations because over 100 year cycle I think that’s a more effective way of addressing the resource issue and the climate change issue

production f, p Northern p Limited supply availability because you come up with outcomes that favour both Australia conservation and industry outcomes, the areas you have available to harvest, there’s only so many…extent to which you can utilise timber and change reutilisation standards to utilise more of it. At the end of the day, you get to an economic threshold that the sawmill just can’t take timber below a certain category

production g Northern p It affects our ability to plan and know you’ve got dry periods, wet periods. So Australia variability, it is important.

production b Southern p & m The spread of dieback is noticeable and according to the conservation Australia commission it’s increasing. Now again, there’s a fair whack of information about the spread of dieback although it tends to be a bit patchy, because when they did the last forest management plan, they got information on half a dozen areas which hadn’t previously been included and as a result they sort of substantially went up the scale, their view about the spread of dieback. I know that there are foresters who argue, well if it’s true that the climate is drying out then, in fact, you should see a reduction in the speed of spread of dieback. Because it really needs wet soil in which to move. So again, my own view is that what’s happening there, is that the soil is not drying out. In fact, ironically, one of the issues that our loggers face is that there are quite strict rules now for soil protection reasons for not logging in wet areas. So they really notice the rain when it comes down because it stops them working. The loss of working days through rain has been one of the biggest issues, in fact, the harvesting sector of the industry has continued to face There is an adaptive management sort of strategy that’s embodied in the forest management plan but we’ve tended to want to not have too much change on the way through because if people have got to invest and they’ve got to invest on the proposition of some sort of capacity for that investment over life and the 10 years is what’s laid out in our legislation and it’s pretty well a minimal period for any sort of investment.

conservation b Northern m Increased spread of particularly some of the pests that at the moment are Australia restrained to tropical areas, that the increase pest, plants. We focus on weeds of national significance and those that are declared. But there's a real concern that the southerly spread of those weeds is increasing Increased fire intensity The forestry country that we manage, particularly the western hardwoods and the western cypress areas and that, are in those marginal rainfall areas, for the last 10 years we've been in drought. So the main thing there is management of the artificial watering points

conservation b Southern p & m Impacts of climate change, I would probably say species redistribution. I’d say Australia change in phenology and I would say decoupling of ecosystems, so that’s where the timing of insects and pollination, seed dispersal will be out of sync with the flowering times of the plants in the ecosystems they were traditionally associated with.

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 115 In terms of the drought and have more, I’d say, extreme climate events. What we are seeing is some die off of a few species particularly tree species in certain locations. So we had a eucalypt species go locally extinct after one of those very hot periods two years ago.

conservation b Northern m So impacts of climate change, I think of species reduction, some species losing Australia out I guess, disappearing from ecosystems. I think of movement of species as climate changes. I think of decreased biodiversity

conservation b Southern p Heat stress is going to be a fundamental issue Australia Salinity Water crisis is emerging as fundamental - Currently the soil moisture in western Victoria at the bottom end of that...are as low as they were 10,500 years ago at the end of the last glacial. You would be expecting to find no revegetation within 50 kilometres of the coast. So soil moisture and the availability of water and our capacity to reforest and grow things is severely limited There are two weak links in the chain - one is just identifying land to do our work and the second is collecting seed. So the ability to let and have available viable seed at the optimum time to stick in the ground is one of our critical limiting factors. Back to dryness. For example you look at the Blue Gum populations down in the south-west. Now they’re unviable economically but they’ve unviable probably ecologically if they’d been a fire through some of it as well and given the dryness indices in south-western Victoria, some of those [unclear] populations are at entire risk. The third big risk is our capacity to scale up. Now in the face of climate change that’s more difficult, but we’ve got a good understanding about how we might do that but frankly we can’t prepare for that until we’ve got a whole lot more certainty about where the funding’s going to come from

conservation b, f Southern p Impact of climate change on species that may be essential for seeding or Australia pollinating plants… climate change may impact on some of the other [species], for example, that we’re not even looking at and they may be essential for reproduction of plants Looking at a species adaptation and how that evolves over a period of time which is going to be problematic given that you’re mainly on 40 to 80 life cycles for a tree in a commercial forestry sense. So you’re going to need some smart work there on how they could adapt because some species clearly won’t adapt in that timeframe if climate change at the rate that’s apparent right now 'Temperature- heat stress is going to be a fundamental issue and that wouldn’t be understood by one per cent of the population. Higher minimum temperatures and an increase in number of days over 35oC will see an increase in heat stress in the community affecting the ability of people to work in the field. Extreme events are also likely to affect the social fabric of society.

conservation b National p It’s also dependent on which reserve we’re talking about. If we’re talking about northern Australia we’re talking about the salt water intrusion, fire frequency, but if you’re talking southern Australia you’re talking fire frequency and intensity, there may be some sea level rise issues but, yeah, that’s not as high priority as the fire issue

conservation b National m Changes in threats to those – particularly changes in fire regimes, changes in wind, changes in pollinator yields and potentially changes in pest animals and plant diseases. So we’re looking at – the concern for us is that we’ve got these little reserves put aside eventually. They are sort of protected from the most pressing threat which is the grazing but we think that they may be vulnerable to a whole new range of threats and we may have to take further action down the track.

conservation b Southern p & m Rising temperatures by itself – look, I think rising temperatures will change ecosystems, probably more at the extreme end of things, so the extreme

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 116 Australia condition rather than the average Major disease issues in the south west forest with Phytophthora and the interaction with climate change

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Appendix 11: Knowledge constraints Affecting adaptive capacity of forests and forest industry to respond to climate change. Key: Role: management=m, policy=p

Domain Climate Zone Role Stakeholder comment

production Northern m The general issues around climate change, the absence of rainfall, need to move into new Australia micro-climates, the research associated with that There’s no decent models for like catchment management on soils in the tropics to do with plantation

production Northern p & m There is no real quantification at the moment of the growth potential of species across the Australia environment in the tropics and sub-tropics so the growth rates that are being predicted and the growth rate now that we’re finding don’t align very well and that’s a critical issue that needs to be addressed.

production Northern m Something like the detailed rainfall predictions probably I would have thought would be one of Australia the real drivers and maybe some temperature information

production Southern p Better technologies right now to help us prepare for climate variability Australia

production Southern m I think we’ve got a lot of knowledge out there but there is a tendency in Australia to reinvent the Australia wheel. In other words to not use the knowledge that we have; so there’s a gap between the knowledge and disseminating or spreading it, people using it

production Southern m The science behind predicting forest growth and different sites is one of the major limitations to Australia people throwing a lot of money at this stuff

production Southern p & m Insufficient information in the public arena to help landowners even just think about these Australia things, let alone consider the implications for their businesses. What information is available, and there’s been some work done by ABARE and [DAFF] and others, generally it’s something that just hits headlines

production Southern p & m Want to improve the wood and the carbon into the equation, with a better advisory method of Australia people modelling what they’re doing

production Southern p & m I have my doubts about a number of the climate change predications and models…. We don’t Australia have any real capacity for getting that information ourselves. We don’t have much capacity to analyse it either but we like to have a look at what people are saying is happening and then what conclusions they’re drawing from that to see if we would draw different conclusions from the same data

production National m First we need to get the R & D right and then we need to really focus heavily on the E on the extensions. It’s one thing having the knowledge bound up in CSIRO or Department of Climate Change or whoever else you’d like to mention, but getting that knowledge, making it useable at a farm scale will remain a challenge in my prediction for at least the next five years

production National m Understanding what the implications of climate change are, what effects that might have on our business going forward from right from our tree establishment, having to be able to report the total energy emissions, understand what our carbon footprint is and how that may impact later on in a business or a carbon constrained economy

conservation Northern m More research which would help us more finely target our priorities, so what part of the Australia landscape is more or less important than the others Greater knowledge of the impacts, greater ability to predict impacts

conservation Northern m We probably need to inform or educate our team leaders to a higher level Australia The time and the ability to meet and to be informed of their big picture or their climate change

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Contribution of Work Package 4 118 plans would certainly be a resource that I would like to have

conservation Southern p Need to raise their value and if people in the big cities don’t see any personal connection with a Australia forest or with their environment, then they’re probably not going to be able to necessarily choose to vote that way or participate or lobby or have any real interest Getting people to understand the whole notion of adaptation

conservation Southern p Apparent lowering of rainfall in the southern states and how they impact on species, biophysical Australia attributes What we’re not seeing with climate change at the moment is something akin to that where there is a very clear partnership between [government] and the community to both educate and mobilise a range of resources on how you adapt to climate change

production Southern m There’s some generic models but not specific models for the region Australia

conservation Southern p & m Scientific knowledge in terms of certainty of predictions. I think there’s a large amount that we Australia could do in terms of prediction of distribution and redistribution of species and incorporating bioclimatic and demographic models. There’s not only the redistribution of species but it’s identifying in the landscape which areas are going to see a lot of pressure. So there’s those areas that have been cleared and those areas where there’s going to be quite a lot of demand in terms of the redistribution of species. Those are the areas that we’ve got to be really targeting for restoration practice

conservation Southern p Lot of fundamental lack of understanding about the impacts - the big impacts - of climate Australia change and what they will mean in terms of social behaviour and the sort of techniques that we’re employing to be seen to be managing that sort of stuff Big risk is our capacity to scale up. Now in the face of climate change that’s more difficult, but we’ve got a good understanding about how we might do that but frankly we can’t prepare for that until we’ve got a whole lot more certainty about where the funding’s going to come from

conservation Southern p & m Constraints are really in terms of resources available to understand the systems, understand Australia the vulnerabilities and then – so the information base then should determine policy positions A good model for vulnerability assessment at the regional scale A lot of work to do on those key elements of carbon storage, development of capacity and modelling and primary information there, vulnerability assessment. In relation to biodiversity is obviously a lot of work that would be done there. And in terms of water management and policy development in that area

conservation National p Maybe one of the biggest impediments is getting a better understanding. So in particular getting accurate, digital elevation models for Kakadu, for example. It’s going to be imperative to get that information so we can actually work out what the impacts would be on specific species, to get down to that level, to identify refugia and be able to manage them proactively now in anticipation of changes to come

conservation National p The information we really need is better regional climate change models

production & Southern p We can do some work on understanding what the critical things are but we need expert advice conservation Australia and input really to probably understand some of the interactions and some of the more, you know, some of the areas that require a bit more expertise like the pest impacts for example

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