Demographic Processes in the Municipalities of the Toplica District
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DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN THE MUNICIPALITIES OF THE TOPLICA DISTRICT Ninoslav Golubović1, Aleksandar Radivojević1, Ljiljana Stričević1 1 University of Niš, Faculti of Sciences and Mathematics, Department of Geography Abstract: This paper analyses the long-term demographic processes on the territory of the Toplica District, which marked the last sixty-year period. The results of the 1948 to 2011 Censuses were used in the analysis. The processes which marked this period were depopulation (total and natural) and the aging of the population (both total population and specific age groups). The intensity of depopulation in some periods is investigated on the basis of intercensus changes in population. The age structure is presented by means of the aging index, the aging coefficient, the median age and the percentage share of age groups in the total population. In order to create a more complete demographic picture, the analysis of demographic data was done by the type of settlement, at the level of municipalities as well as the district as a whole. Keywords: Toplica district, depopulation, age structure, aging of the population 1. Introduction Demographic processes on the territory of the Toplica District in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first century are characterized by extremely unfavorable trends, affecting both present and future demographic and economic development. The processes of total and natural depopulation and the aging of the population are seen as fundamental demographic processes on the territory of both Serbia and the Toplica District (Djokic, 2015). The intensive process of depopulation, caused by extensive emigration of the population and a negative population growth, has led to significant changes in the age structure of the population of the analysed area. Negative demographic processes which have marked the entire period exhibit different intensity if they are analysed at lower administrative-territorial units (municipalities and the type of settlement). Demographic dynamics demonstrates an ever stronger spatial polarization, which is particularly 37 evident when it comes to urban and non-urban settlements (Jukic, Turk, 2010). It is notable that in certain territorial units of districts, these processes take place more slowly, while in others, they have led to a complete degradation of demographic resources. The basic demographic processes that are discussed in this paper are depopulation and the aging of the population. 2. Materials and methods The timeframe of the research covers the period from 1948 to 2011. The results of eight post-war Censuses were used for the analysis of demographic processes. When analyzing the numerical population trends, it should be taken into account that starting from the 2002 Census, there are differences in the census methodology, which makes it difficult to comparethe data. The 2002 Census in Serbia applied international recommendations which suggest that the permanent resident population includes the population living in the country and persons with temporary work and residence abroad for less than a year. Foreign nationals with work and residence in Serbia for longer than a year are also included in the permanent resident population. The analysis of demographic processes on the territory of the Toplica District and its lower administrative-territorial units is based on the use of relevant demographic variables, which serve to calculate the demographic indicators of negative demographic processes. Several variables were used to shape the indicators: the percentage share of the population by five-year age groups, the percentage share of the population younger than 20 years of age, the percentage share of the population over 60, intercensal population change and median age. Based on these, the aging index and the aging coefficient were calculated. The obtained results determined the direction and intensity of changes in the analysed period, and pointed to the consequences of such developments. 3. Population changes Change in the total population is a synthetic indicator of demographic trends and processes in a particular area (Turk, Jukic, 2009). It is a result of natural and spatial mobility of the population. The territory of the Toplica 38 District and its component parts are characterized by the processes of total depopulation and extreme aging of the population. In the period from 1948 to 2011, population growth was only recordedin the observed area in the first intercensus period (1948-1953), whereas stagnation was recorded in all other periods. Total population decline from 1948 to 2011 amounted to 49,748 or 35.16%. The long-term process of depopulation threatened the vital characteristics of the population, and it is certain that the population decline will continue in the future as well. The decrease of population in the observed period was recorded in all municipalities. It ranged from 22.97% in the Municipality of Zitoradja to 50.35% in the Municipality of Blace. The municipalities of Prokuplje and Kursumlija recorded a decrease of 25.08% and 48.47% respectively. Table 1 shows that the Municipalities of Blace and Kursumlija have extremely negative demographic characteristics. The population of these municipalities belongs to the strong depopulation type (Kursumlija) and the first phase of extinction type (Blace). The extent of depopulation can best be seen if analysed by the type of settlement. Only 16 settlements, four of which are municipal centers, had an increase in population, while the trend of population decline was recorded in 251 settlements. Three rural settlements were affected by total depopulation: Vukojevac and Tacevac in the Municipality of Kursumlija and Obrtnica in the Municipality of Prokuplje. An interesting example is the village of Rastelica (Municipality of Kursumlija) where the 2002 Census did not record a single resident, while the following Census recorded three inhabitants. All these settlements are located in the altitude zone of 750 to 850 meters above sea level. The most intensive depopulation process, where the population decreased by more than 90%, was recorded in 59 settlements. 167 settlements belong to the second group of settlements with extremely unfavorable demographic characteristics, where the decrease ranged between 40 to 90%. 17 settlements belong to the group of settlements with slightly more favorable characteristics, although still negative (decrease from 10 to 40%). Only 5 settlements experienced a decrease of 10%. In order to gain a better understanding of demographic processes and potential, hypsometric distribution of the population and settlements was analysed as well. For this purpose, settlements are classified into three groups: settlements located in the altitude zone of 200 to 499 meters above sea level, settlements located in the altitude zone of 500 to 999 meters above sea level and settlements located in the altitude zone above 1000 meters 39 above sea level. Demographic problems are particularly pronounced in the parts of the district with high altitude, which have been characterized by extreme depopulation for several decades, caused by emigration of the working-age and fertile-age population (Ivkovic, Todoric, 2013). Most of the settlements, 147, are located in the altitude zone of 200 to 499 meters, which represents 55.06% of the total number of settlements. 116 settlements are located in the next altitude zone (500 to 999 metres) which represents 43.45%, while only 4 settlements are located in the altitude zone above 1000 meters (1.5%). Analyzing the settlements and population by hypsometric zones, it can be clearly observed that the depopulation is more pronounced with higher altitudes (Ivkovic, Todoric, 2013). The most intensive population decline occurred in the highest altitude zone. The percentage share of the population of this zone in the total population during the period under review decreased from 0.97% to 0.13%. The population of the four settlements in this zone, according to the last Census, makes up only 8.78% of the population in 1948. Table 1. Population change by type of settlement from 1948 to 2011 Type of change Type of change 1953/48 1961/53 1971/61 1981/71 1991/81 2002/91 2011/2002 2011/1948 1948-2011 2002-2011 Toplica District 105.60 94.46 91.78 94.13 91.70 91.29 89.89 64.84 R4 R3 Urban 115.01 130.76 154.27 131.50 113.45 101.49 97.79 343.50 P1 R1 Other 104.62 90.30 81.41 82.37 80.78 84.10 83.16 35.79 R4 R4 Blace 103.94 89.80 87.47 89.69 90.60 87.59 85.43 49.65 R4 R4 Urban 119.57 117.56 131.55 130.71 118.58 104.53 96.12 287.99 P1 R2 Other 102.63 87.10 81.69 81.02 81.07 79.13 78.38 29.75 R4 R3 Zitoradja 105.54 98.41 96.16 97.58 94.37 93.15 89.90 77.03 R4 R3 Other 105.54 98.41 96.16 97.58 94.37 93.15 89.90 77.03 R4 R3 Kursumlija 106.67 92.77 85.84 87.23 85.38 91.60 88.92 51.53 R4 R3 Urban 112.05 122.78 195.37 142.96 118.25 108.50 96.49 475.72 P1 R2 Other 106.24 90.20 73.09 69.89 64.45 71.86 75.56 17.13 R4 R4 Prokuplje 105.60 95.94 95.41 98.15 94.16 91.56 91.58 74.92 R4 R3 Urban 115.00 136.11 146.97 127.35 110.55 97.77 98.77 312.77 P1 R1 Other 103.98 88.27 80.20 82.38 80.47 84.44 82.03 33.80 R4 R4 Source: Census of population, households and apartments in 2011 in the Republic of Serbia, Comparative overview of population 1948/2011, Data by settlements, Book 20, RSO Belgrade, 2014. The settlements in the altitude zone from 500 to 999 meters recorded a slightly lower decrease in the total population.