December 2016

-DRAFT V1-

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry

Level 2 Traffic and

Revenue Study

Prepared by: Submitted to:

Cover Letter

Tollway Towers North, Suite 870 Shahram Bohluli, Ph.D., P.E. 15770 North Dallas Parkway Vice President/Project Manager Dallas, TX 75248 [email protected] Tel: 214-245-5300 Fax: 214-889-5049

Date: December 30, 2016 To: Michael C. Riojas, P.E. Project Manager S&B Infrastructure, Ltd. 5805 Callaghan Rd, Suite 202 San Antonio, TX 78228 Subject: Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry - Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study Draft V1

Dear Mr. Riojas,

C&M Associates, Inc. is pleased to provide you with Draft Report Version 1 of the Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study. This report presents an overview of the project, an assessment of existing traffic conditions and socioeconomic data in the project area, and an overview of data collection and analyses. The report also presents details regarding the modeling approach, methodology, and, most importantly, the traffic and revenue forecasts. The C&M project team expresses its sincere gratitude to S&B for providing the opportunity to participate in this project.

Respectfully,

Carlos M. Contreras, MBA Shahram Bohluli, Ph.D., P.E. President Vice President, Project Manager

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study

Prepared For:

Prepared By:

Draft Report Version 1

December 2016

Disclaimer

The results of this study constitute the opinion of C&M with respect to the tolled facility’s future traffic and revenue. The traffic and revenue projections provided in this report were developed based on standard professional practices and the information available at the time the study was executed, subject to the time and budget constraints of the study’s scope of work. C&M reasonably relied on the accuracy and completeness of information provided (both written and orally) by S&B Infrastructure, Ltd. and independent parties. C&M is unaware of any material facts that would call into question the information that was received. Publicly available material has not been independently verified, and C&M does not assume responsibility for verifying such material. As with any forecast, differences between projected and actual outcomes may occur due to future events and circumstances outside of C&M’s control. C&M cannot guarantee or ensure future events in connection to this traffic and revenue forecast, though the projections and other forward-looking statements included herein are based on reasonable assumptions as of the date this study was completed. The information and results presented in this report should be considered as a whole. Selecting portions of any individual result without considering the intent of the whole may promote a misleading or incomplete view of this study’s findings and the methodologies used to obtain these findings. C&M does not endorse the value or merit of partial information extracted from this report.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study i DRAFT V1

Table of Contents

Disclaimer ...... i Table of Contents ...... ii List of Tables ...... v List of Figures ...... vii Acronyms & Abbreviations ...... ix Executive Summary ...... ES-1 Chapter 1: Introduction ...... 1-1 1.1. Project Description ...... 1-1 1.2. Study Area ...... 1-1 1.3. Objective and Scope of the Study ...... 1-4 1.4. Organization of the Report...... 1-4 Chapter 2: Existing Information ...... 2-1 2.1. Existing Roadway Network: Del Rio Area ...... 2-1 2.1.1. US 277/US 377 ...... 2-3 2.1.2. US 90 ...... 2-3 2.1.3. Veterans Boulevard ...... 2-4 2.1.4. Other Arterials ...... 2-5 2.2. Existing Roadway Network: Acuña Area ...... 2-5 2.2.1. Highway 2/29 (MEX2/29) ...... 2-6 2.3. Existing Ports of Entry in the Study Area ...... 2-7 2.3.1. Del Rio-Ciudad Acuña International Bridge ...... 2-9 2.3.2. Lake Amistad Dam Port of Entry ...... 2-11 2.3.3. Commodity Shipment Types ...... 2-11 2.4. Permanent Traffic Count Stations ...... 2-13 2.4.1. Seasonality Factor ...... 2-14 2.4.2. Seasonality in Mexico ...... 2-17 2.5. Border Traffic Trends ...... 2-17 2.5.1. Passenger Vehicles ...... 2-18

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry ii Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 TABLE OF CONTENTS

2.5.2. Commercial Vehicles ...... 2-19 2.5.3. Border Crossing Seasonality ...... 2-20 2.6. Travel Time Study ...... 2-21 2.7. External Station Counts ...... 2-22 2.8. Government Policies ...... 2-24 2.8.1. The North American Free Trade Agreement ...... 2-24 2.8.2. Secure Electronic Network for Travelers Rapid Inspection ...... 2-25 2.8.3. U.S. Trucking Legislation...... 2-25 2.8.4. The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act ...... 2-26 2.8.5. Mexican Border Crossing Cards (Laser Visas) ...... 2-27 2.8.6. The Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act ...... 2-28 2.8.7. The Enhanced Border Security and Visa Entry Reform Act ...... 2-28 2.8.8. Mexico’s Policies Against Organized Crime ...... 2-28 2.8.9. The Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative ...... 2-29 2.8.10. Ready Lanes ...... 2-29 2.8.11. Sistemo de Aforo Vehicular ...... 2-29 2.9. Automotive Industry Trends ...... 2-30 Chapter 3: Socioeconomic Evaluation & Projections ...... 3-1 3.1. Population ...... 3-2 3.1.1. Historical Trends in Regional Population ...... 3-2 3.1.2. Population at the TAZ Level ...... 3-3 3.1.3. Population Projections ...... 3-4 3.2. Employment ...... 3-6 3.2.1. Historical Trends in Regional Employment ...... 3-6 3.2.2. Employment at the TAZ Level ...... 3-8 3.2.3. Maquiladora Historical Trends ...... 3-9 3.2.4. Employment Projections ...... 3-11 3.3. Gross Regional Product ...... 3-12 3.3.1. Historical Trends in Gross Regional Product...... 3-13 3.3.2. Gross Regional Product Projections ...... 3-14 3.4. Median Household Income ...... 3-14

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study iii DRAFT V1 TABLE OF CONTENTS

3.4.1. Historical Trends in Regional Median Household Income ...... 3-14 3.4.2. Median Household Income Projections ...... 3-15 3.5. Building Permits ...... 3-15 Chapter 4: Modeling Approach ...... 4-1 4.1. Travel Demand Model Development ...... 4-2 4.1.1. Traffic Analysis Zones ...... 4-2 4.1.2. Socioeconomic Information ...... 4-5 4.1.3. Modeling Base and Future Years ...... 4-5 4.1.4. Network Development ...... 4-5 4.2. Four-Step Travel Demand Modeling ...... 4-9 4.2.1. Trip Generation ...... 4-9 4.2.2. Trip Distribution ...... 4-11 4.2.3. Mode Choice ...... 4-13 4.2.4. Traffic Assignment ...... 4-14 4.3. Model Calibration and Validation ...... 4-14 Chapter 5: Traffic & Revenue Forecast ...... 5-1 5.1. Econometric Model Methodology ...... 5-1 5.2. Econometric Model Results ...... 5-6 5.2.1. Passenger Vehicle Econometric Model ...... 5-6 5.2.2. Commercial Vehicle Econometric Model ...... 5-7 5.3. Demand Forecast Results ...... 5-8 5.4. Demand Assignment ...... 5-10 5.5. Toll Rate ...... 5-11 5.6. Traffic and Revenue Assumptions ...... 5-12 5.7. Traffic and Revenue Results ...... 5-14

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry iv Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1

List of Tables

Table ES-1. The Project’s Annual Transactions and Revenue Forecast ...... ES-5 Table 2-1. Toll Rates for Southbound Del Rio-Ciudad Acuña Bridge ...... 2-9 Table 2-2. Del Rio-Acuña POE Annual Northbound Crossings ...... 2-10 Table 2-3. Lake Amistad Dam POE Annual Northbound PV Crossings ...... 2-11 Table 2-4. Top Five Imported Commodities at Del Rio POE, by Weight...... 2-13 Table 2-5. Top Five Imported Commodities at Del Rio POE, by Value (Thousands of Dollars) . 2-13 Table 2-6. U.S. and Mexican Truck Regulations ...... 2-20 Table 2-7. Google Database: Travel Time Collection ...... 2-22 Table 2-8. External Station Traffic Counts and Growth Rates: 2000–2014 ...... 2-23 Table 2-9. Border Policies and their Effect on Border Crossings...... 2-24 Table 3-1. Historical Population Trends in U.S...... 3-2 Table 3-2. Historical Population Trends in Mexico ...... 3-2 Table 3-3. Population Projections – Val Verde and Texas ...... 3-4 Table 3-4. Val Verde County Population Projections by Source ...... 3-5 Table 3-5. Population Projections – Acuña Municipality and Coahuila ...... 3-5 Table 3-6. Historical Employment Trends by Source ...... 3-7 Table 3-7. Historical Maquiladora Employment ...... 3-8 Table 3-8. Historical Maquiladora Growth in Acuña ...... 3-10 Table 3-9. Employment Projections ...... 3-12 Table 3-10. Historical Gross Regional Product (Millions of 2009$) ...... 3-13 Table 3-11. Gross Regional Product Projections (Millions of 2009$) ...... 3-14 Table 3-12. Historical Median Household Income (Nominal $) ...... 3-14 Table 3-13. Val Verde County Median Household Income Projections (Nominal $) ...... 3-15 Table 3-14. Val Verde County New Home Permits ...... 3-16 Table 4-1. Area Type Classifications by Region ...... 4-4 Table 4-2. Hourly Capacity – Del Rio ...... 4-6 Table 4-3. Hourly Capacity – Acuña ...... 4-6

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study v DRAFT V1 LIST OF TABLES

Table 4-4. Trip Share by Purpose – CMDATDM vs. Various Sources...... 4-10 Table 4-5. Average Trip Length by Purpose...... 4-12 Table 4-6. Urban Model Trip Length (Minutes) ...... 4-12 Table 4-7. Daily Traffic Comparison: Model Estimates vs. AADT ...... 4-16 Table 4-8. Daily Travel Time Comparison: Model Estimates vs. Google Database ...... 4-18 Table 5-1. PV Econometric Model Coefficients ...... 5-7 Table 5-2. CV Econometric Model Coefficients ...... 5-7 Table 5-3. Econometric Model Results ...... 5-9 Table 5-4. Weekday Border Crossing Traffic ...... 5-10 Table 5-5. Southbound Average Toll Rates ...... 5-12 Table 5-6. Traffic and Revenue Assumptions ...... 5-14 Table 5-7. The Project’s Annual Transactions and Revenue Forecast ...... 5-15

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry vi Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1

List of Figures

Figure ES-1. Passenger Vehicle Transactions and Revenue Forecast ...... ES-6 Figure ES-2. Commercial Vehicle Transactions and Revenue Forecast ...... ES-6 Figure 1-1. Project Location and Study Area ...... 1-2 Figure 1-2. Major Texas–Mexico Border POEs ...... 1-3 Figure 2-1. Existing Roadway Network – Del Rio Area ...... 2-1 Figure 2-2. AADT Count Locations – Del Rio Area ...... 2-2 Figure 2-3. US 277/US 377 AADT at the LAFB South Entrance ...... 2-3 Figure 2-4. US 90 AADT at Selected Locations ...... 2-4 Figure 2-5. Veterans Blvd. AADT at Selected Locations ...... 2-4 Figure 2-6. Other Arterials’ AADTs at Selected Locations ...... 2-5 Figure 2-7. Acuña Road Network and AADT Counts ...... 2-6 Figure 2-8. MEX2 and MEX29 AADTs: 2004 to 2015 ...... 2-7 Figure 2-9. Existing Ports of Entry along the International Border ...... 2-8 Figure 2-10. Study Area Annual Inbound Crossings – All Vehicles (Indexed to Year 2000) ...... 2-8 Figure 2-11. Study Area Annual Inbound CV Crossings (Indexed to Year 2000) ...... 2-10 Figure 2-12. Study Area POEs – Imports Weights (Metric Tons)...... 2-12 Figure 2-13. Study Area POEs – Imports in Dollars (Billions) ...... 2-12 Figure 2-14. TxDOT Permanent Count Locations ...... 2-14 Figure 2-15. 2014 AADT at Selected Permanent Count Stations ...... 2-15 Figure 2-16. Seasonality Factors at Selected Permanent Count Stations ...... 2-16 Figure 2-17. Seasonality Factors at Francesco Javier Mina (South of the Int’l Bridge) ...... 2-17 Figure 2-18. Southbound Border Weekday/Weekend Daily Traffic (All Vehicles) ...... 2-18 Figure 2-19. Southbound Border Weekday/Weekend Daily Traffic (CVs) ...... 2-18 Figure 2-20. Industrial/Maquiladora Parks in the Study Area ...... 2-19 Figure 2-21. Passenger Vehicle Seasonality Factors ...... 2-20 Figure 2-22. Commercial Vehicle Seasonality Factors ...... 2-20 Figure 2-23. Google Database Travel Time Routes ...... 2-21 Figure 2-24. External Stations ...... 2-23

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study vii DRAFT V1 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 3-1. Population Density Map – 2014 ...... 3-3 Figure 3-2. Population Projections Comparison ...... 3-5 Figure 3-3. Historical Combined Full-Time/Part-Time Employment – Val Verde County ...... 3-6 Figure 3-4. Employment Density Map – 2014 ...... 3-9 Figure 3-5. Maquiladoras in Acuña ...... 3-11 Figure 3-6. Employment Projections...... 3-12 Figure 3-7. Val Verde County Building Permits: 2000 to 2015 ...... 3-16 Figure 4-1. CMDATDM Modeling Area...... 4-2 Figure 4-2. CMDATDM Traffic Analysis Zones – Del Rio ...... 4-3 Figure 4-3. CMDATDM Traffic Analysis Zones – Acuña ...... 4-4 Figure 4-4. CMDATDM Base Year Roadway Network – Del Rio ...... 4-7 Figure 4-5. CMDATDM Base Year Roadway Network – Acuña ...... 4-7 Figure 4-6. CMDATDM Volume Delay Function ...... 4-8 Figure 4-7. Friction Factors by Trip Purpose ...... 4-11 Figure 4-8. Frequency Distribution of Trip Length by Purpose ...... 4-12 Figure 4-9. CMDATDM External Stations – Del Rio ...... 4-13 Figure 4-10. CMDATDM External Stations – Acuña ...... 4-14 Figure 4-11. AADT Count Locations ...... 4-15 Figure 4-12. Model Estimates vs. Maximum Desirable Deviation...... 4-17 Figure 4-13. Google Database Travel Time Routes ...... 4-17 Figure 5-1. Historical Trends in Population ...... 5-4 Figure 5-2. Historical Trends in Employment ...... 5-4 Figure 5-3. Historical Trends in Economic Indicators ...... 5-5 Figure 5-4. Historical Trends in Southbound Border Crossings ...... 5-5 Figure 5-5. Southbound PV Crossings: Observed vs. Predicted ...... 5-8 Figure 5-6. Southbound Truck Crossings: Observed vs. Predicted ...... 5-8 Figure 5-7. Toll Rates by Vehicle Class ...... 5-11 Figure 5-8. Passenger Vehicle T&R Forecast for the Project ...... 5-16 Figure 5-9. Commercial Vehicle T&R Forecast for the Project ...... 5-16

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry viii Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1

Acronyms & Abbreviations

AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic ADT Average Daily Traffic AP Attraction-to-Production BCC Border Crossing Card BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics BPR Bureau of Public Roads BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics BUS Business CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CAPUFE Caminos y Puentes Federales CBD Central Business District CBP U.S. Customs and Border Protection C&M C&M Associates, Inc. CMDATDM C&M Del Rio-Acuña Travel Demand Model CV Commercial Vehicle DECA The Desarrollo Económico de Ciudad Acuña, A.C. DOT Department of Transportation FHWA Federal Highway Administration FOA Felipe Ochoa y Asociados GDP Gross Domestic Product GRP Gross Regional Product HBW Home-Based Work HNW Home-Based Non-Work IDENT Automated Biometric Fingerprint Identification System IIRIRA The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act IMMEX Maquiladora Program in Mexico INEGI Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía INS Immigration and Naturalization Service ISD Independent School District LAFB Laughlin Airforce Base LEHD Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study ix DRAFT V1 ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS

MD Midday MSA Metropolitan Statistical Area NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program NHB Non-Home-Based NHTS National Household Travel Survey NT Nighttime OBIM Office of Biometric Identity Management OD Origin-Destination OEM Original Equipment Manufacture PA Production-to-Attraction PASA Pre-Authorization Safety Audit PITEX Temporal Importation Program to Produce Articles for Exportation POE Port of Entry PV Passenger Vehicle R2 Coefficient of Determination RFID Radio Frequency Identification SAM Statewide Analytical Model SCT Secretaria De Communicaciones Y Transportes SENTRI Secure Electronic Network for Travelers Rapid Inspection SH State Highway SIAVE Sistema de Aforo Vehicular SP Stated Preference TAZ Traffic Analysis Zone TDM Travel Demand Model TMASC Texas Mexico Automotive Supercluster TOD Time of Day T&R Traffic and Revenue TSDC Texas State Data Center TWDB Texas Water Development Board TxDOT Texas Department of Transportation The Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate USA PATRIOT Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act VDF Volume Delay Function VPD Vehicles per Day WHTI Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative W&P Woods & Poole Economics

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry x Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1

Executive Summary

S&B Infrastructure, Ltd. has partnered with C&M Associates, Inc. (C&M) to develop a Level 2 (Phase II) traffic and revenue (T&R) study for the proposed Second Del Rio–Acuña International Port of Entry (POE) at the U.S.–Mexican border, between the city of Del Rio in Val Verde County, Texas and the city of Acuña in Coahuila, Mexico. The primary goal of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed POE (the Project) by forecasting the Project’s T&R over a 30-year period beginning in 2020.

ES.1. Project and Study Details The Project consists of a new international bridge and a roadway connecting to U.S. Route 90 (US 90)/US 79 north of Del Rio. The proposed bridge is assumed to be open by 2020. The roadway between the proposed POE and US 90 is over 7 miles long and is assumed to have two lanes in each direction. The new POE will directly connect the maquiladoras (i.e., manufacturing plants) in Acuña to the shipping facilities in Del Rio, as well as the industrial parks on both sides of the border, west of downtown Acuña and approximately midway between the existing Del Rio International Bridge and the Lake Amistad Dam POE. The existing bridge is located near downtown Del Rio and serves both passenger and commercial traffic. Once the Project is completed, commercial traffic will no longer be allowed to use the existing bridge and will be diverted to the new bridge, bypassing the downtown residential areas. Passenger traffic is expected to be split between the two bridges. In addition, the new bridge’s connection to US 90 would provide a direct route to San Antonio and other locations in Texas. The current study builds upon C&M’s “S&B Del Rio ~ Acuña II International Port of Entry Feasibility Study (Phase I),” which was completed in April 2014. This feasibility study included econometric-model-based forecasts using historical data, demographic forecasts, and socioeconomic conditions within the study area. Following the completion of this Phase I feasibility study, the location for the Project was chosen to be north of the existing bridge. In 2015, the Del Rio City Council and International Bridge Board authorized a Phase II feasibility study for the Project to determine if the expected traffic flow warrants a new bridge. The area considered in this study focuses on the U.S. city of Del Rio and the Mexican city of Acuña, but also includes surrounding areas along the U.S-Mexican border comprising the southern portion of Val Verde County and the northwestern portion of the Mexican state of Coahuila. The following sections summarize each component of the present T&R study.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study ES-1 DRAFT V1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ES.2. Existing Information In developing the T&R forecasts for this study, C&M analyzed historical traffic data and trends— in the form of annual average daily traffic (AADT)—seasonality factors, vehicle classification data, and the current traffic patterns of the roadway networks and international bridges within the study area. Given the unique characteristics of the study area, C&M also analyzed commodity shipment data—to gain a better understanding of commercial vehicle activity—and border traffic information, including border crossing trends, automotive industry trends, and U.S.-Mexican border policies. Additionally, travel time data was collected for major roadways on both sides of the border via Google’s database for use in calibrating travel times for the travel demand model (TDM) base year.

ES.3. Socioeconomic Review The demographic and economic status of a region has a significant impact on the usage of highways and toll facilities, and socioeconomic projections provide the basic inputs for travel demand modeling and developing T&R forecasts. C&M analyzed historical and forecasted socioeconomic data within the Del Rio and Acuña regions. Specifically, the study area for this analysis consisted of Val Verde County, TX on the U.S. side of the border, with an emphasis on Del Rio, and the state of Coahuila on the Mexican side of the border, with emphasis on Acuña. The analysis focused on factors that impact transportation activities and drive traffic demand within the area of the Project, particularly population, employment, median household income, and gross regional product (GRP). As part of its socioeconomic evaluation of the study area, C&M took the following steps:  Reviewed historical and forecasted socioeconomic data.  Determined countywide population and employment growth rates from 2015 to 2035.  Determined population and employment growth at the block-group level.  Prepared traffic analysis zone (TAZ)-level socioeconomic data for all future model years using available data. In addition to socioeconomic data received from Crossborder group, in the evaluation process, C&M considered publicly and privately available data from the following sources:  Texas State Data Center (TSDC)  U.S. Census Bureau  Moody’s Analytics  Woods & Poole Economics (W&P)  Texas Water Development Board (TWDB)  Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)  Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry ES-2 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 Mexico's Industry: Maquiladora Program in Mexico (IMMEX)  Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)  The Desarrollo Económico de Ciudad Acuña, A.C. (DECA)

ES.4. Travel Demand Modeling One major improvement over the previous sketch-level study is the development of a travel demand model (TDM) to develop the final T&R forecast. The purpose of the TDM for this study is to model future traffic (cars and trucks) for all the major and minor roadways within the study area, including the distribution between the existing and proposed international bridges, while replicating existing travel conditions in the base year 2014. Since there was no existing TDM for the study area, C&M developed its own complete, traditional four-step TDM focusing on the Del Rio and Acuña areas: the C&M Del Rio-Acuña TDM (CMDATDM). The CMDATDM was calibrated to base year conditions using the newly-collected data previously described, including the latest socioeconomic data for the Project area and surrounding region. The modeling area of the CMDATDM covers most of Val Verde County and the Acuña municipality. The inclusion of areas on both sides of the border is critical to this study since the Project’s expected traffic will be influenced by demographic and economic characteristics on both sides of the border. In addition, including the Acuña area aids in analyzing long-distance truck traffic that services maquiladoras beyond the Acuña region in Monclova, Torreon, and Monterrey. The traffic analysis zone (TAZ) coverage comprises 251 TAZs in Del Rio, of which 8 are external zones, and 267 TAZs in Acuña, of which 9 are external zones. Each major highway that crosses the modeling area boundary is represented by one external zone. Thus, the 17 external zones represent “gateway roads” to and from the modeling area. In addition to the base year 2014, the CMDATDM includes future model years 2020 (the opening year of the Project) and 2035. C&M developed the base year network using available roadway layers from OpenStreetMap, with modifications and adjustments to the structure of the network to reflect the current conditions and to better serve the specific purposes of this study. For the future year networks, the Del Rio Comprehensive Master Plan and the Programa Nacional De Infraestructura 2014-2018 were reviewed to check for any planned improvements in the study area. Since there are no improvements already planned, future year networks were assumed to be the same as the base year, with the exception of the Project and its connecting roadways to MEX2 in Acuña and US 90 in Del Rio. All components of the TDM such as the TAZ layer, roadway layer, and socioeconomic inputs were developed separately for the Del Rio and Acuña areas. Trip generation and trip distribution were performed separately for Del Rio and Acuña areas. After these two steps were completed and the final trip tables were developed, the two models were combined into one homogenous study area model capable of assigning trips from one side of the border to the other. C&M calibrated and validated the model using 2014 socioeconomic data, roadway network data, TxDOT’s 2014 AADTs, and truck counts from TxDOT’s truck flow-band maps.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study ES-3 DRAFT V1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ES.5. Traffic and Revenue Forecast C&M developed a detailed econometric model to predict border crossings in the study area, taking into consideration the characteristics of both Del Rio and Acuña, including population, employment, and other relevant socioeconomic indicators. This model was used to predict traffic—personal vehicles (PVs) and commercial vehicles (CVs)—on both the current Del Rio POE bridge and the proposed POE bridge. Once the border crossings were estimated, the CMDATDM was used to estimate the traffic using each bridge based on travel time savings provided for different origins and destinations between Del Rio and Acuña. For this study, C&M assumed all CVs (loaded and empty) will be eligible to use the Project with access to FAST lanes. While CVs are assumed to use the Project (as they will not be allowed on the existing POE), PVs selection of POE is based on several factors, primarily their trip OD and travel time. After the travel forecast for the Project was estimated for a typical working day, C&M incorporated this information into its post-processing model designed to forecast T&R on an annual basis. To cover the entire 30-year forecast period, transactions were interpolated between the model years 2020 and 2035 and extrapolated after 2035. The presented forecast is the estimated traffic that will use the Project and the corresponding revenue by class (PVs and CVs) for the years 2020 through 2049. The T&R forecast is presented in Table ES-1 and illustrated in Figure ES-1 and Figure ES-2 for PVs and CVs, respectively. All revenues are expressed in 2016 dollars. For the opening year 2020, C&M forecasts that PVs will generate approximately $522,000 in toll revenue as a result of roughly 149,000 toll transactions. By 2030, the number of transactions is projected to increase to approximately 376,000, and to 537,000 by the final forecast year 2049. Annual revenue is projected to reach approximately $1.3 million by 2030 and $1.9 million by 2049. For CVs, C&M forecasts approximately $1.8 million in toll revenue in 2020 as a result of 73,000 toll transactions. By 2030, the number of transactions is projected to increase to approximately 89,000 and to 112,000 by the final forecast year 2049. Annual revenue is projected to reach nearly $2.2 million by 2030 and to $2.7 million by 2049.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry ES-4 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Table ES-1. The Project’s Annual Transactions and Revenue Forecast

Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles All Vehicles Year Revenue Revenue Revenue Transactions Transactions Transactions (2016$) (2016$) (2016$) 2020 149,100 $521,900 73,300 $1,795,900 222,400 $2,317,800 2021 181,300 $634,600 75,000 $1,837,500 256,300 $2,472,100 2022 215,900 $755,700 76,600 $1,876,700 292,500 $2,632,400 2023 253,200 $886,200 78,200 $1,915,900 331,400 $2,802,100 2024 293,200 $1,026,200 79,900 $1,957,600 373,100 $2,983,800 2025 305,600 $1,069,600 81,400 $1,994,300 387,000 $3,063,900 2026 318,500 $1,114,800 83,000 $2,033,500 401,500 $3,148,300 2027 331,900 $1,161,700 84,500 $2,070,300 416,400 $3,232,000 2028 345,900 $1,210,700 85,900 $2,104,600 431,800 $3,315,300 2029 360,500 $1,261,800 87,400 $2,141,300 447,900 $3,403,100 2030 375,700 $1,315,000 88,800 $2,175,600 464,500 $3,490,600 2031 391,600 $1,370,600 90,200 $2,209,900 481,800 $3,580,500 2032 408,100 $1,428,400 91,500 $2,241,800 499,600 $3,670,200 2033 425,300 $1,488,600 92,900 $2,276,100 518,200 $3,764,700 2034 443,300 $1,551,600 94,200 $2,307,900 537,500 $3,859,500 2035 462,000 $1,617,000 95,500 $2,339,800 557,500 $3,956,800 2036 467,300 $1,635,600 96,800 $2,371,600 564,100 $4,007,200 2037 472,600 $1,654,100 98,100 $2,403,500 570,700 $4,057,600 2038 478,000 $1,673,000 99,300 $2,432,900 577,300 $4,105,900 2039 483,400 $1,691,900 100,500 $2,462,300 583,900 $4,154,200 2040 488,900 $1,711,200 101,700 $2,491,700 590,600 $4,202,900 2041 494,500 $1,730,800 102,900 $2,521,100 597,400 $4,251,900 2042 500,200 $1,750,700 104,100 $2,550,500 604,300 $4,301,200 2043 505,900 $1,770,700 105,200 $2,577,400 611,100 $4,348,100 2044 510,900 $1,788,200 106,300 $2,604,400 617,200 $4,392,600 2045 516,000 $1,806,000 107,400 $2,631,300 623,400 $4,437,300 2046 521,200 $1,824,200 108,500 $2,658,300 629,700 $4,482,500 2047 526,400 $1,842,400 109,500 $2,682,800 635,900 $4,525,200 2048 531,700 $1,861,000 110,600 $2,709,700 642,300 $4,570,700 2049 537,000 $1,879,500 111,600 $2,734,200 648,600 $4,613,700

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study ES-5 DRAFT V1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Figure ES-1. Passenger Vehicle Transactions and Revenue Forecast

Figure ES-2. Commercial Vehicle Transactions and Revenue Forecast

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry ES-6 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION

S&B Infrastructure, Ltd. has partnered with C&M Associates, Inc. (C&M) to develop a Level 2 (Phase II) traffic and revenue (T&R) study for the proposed Second Del Rio–Acuña International Port of Entry (POE) at the U.S.–Mexican border, between the city of Del Rio in Val Verde County, Texas and the city of Acuña in Coahuila, Mexico. The primary goal of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed POE (the Project) by forecasting the Project’s T&R over a 30-year period.

1.1. Project Description The Project, illustrated in Figure 1-1, consists of a new international bridge and a roadway connecting to U.S. Route 90 (US 90)/US 79 north of Del Rio. The proposed bridge is assumed to be open by 2020. The roadway between the proposed POE and US 90 is over 7 miles long and is assumed to have two lanes in each direction. The new POE will directly connect the maquiladoras (i.e., manufacturing plants) in Acuña to the shipping facilities in Del Rio, as well as the industrial parks on both sides of the border, west of downtown Acuña and approximately midway between the existing Del Rio International Bridge and the Lake Amistad Dam POE. The existing bridge is located near downtown Del Rio and serves both passenger and commercial traffic. Once the Project is completed, commercial traffic will no longer be allowed to use the existing bridge and will be diverted to the new bridge, bypassing the downtown residential areas. Passenger traffic is expected to be split between the two bridges. In addition, the new bridge’s connection to US 90 would provide a direct route to San Antonio and other locations in Texas.

1.2. Study Area The area considered in this study focuses on the U.S. city of Del Rio and the Mexican city of Acuña, but also includes surrounding areas along the U.S–Mexican border comprising the southern portion of Val Verde County and the northwestern portion of the Mexican state of Coahuila, as illustrated in Figure 1-1. Del Rio is the county seat of Val Verde County in Texas, and Ciudad Acuña serves as the municipal seat of the municipality of Acuña in Mexico. The study area was determined to be within the boundaries of the Lake Amistad Dam International Crossing and the southern border of Val Verde County on the U.S. side of the border. On the Mexican side, most of the Acuña municipality is included in the study area.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 1-1 DRAFT V1 1. INTRODUCTION

Figure 1-1. Project Location and Study Area

The Del Rio area is served by two major roads: US 90, northwest of the region, bypasses the city going west towards San Antonio; US 277/US 377 is a north-south route that travels along the recently constructed State Highway 79 (SH 79) Loop. These two facilities merge near SH 79, north of the city. In addition, major arterials such as Veterans Boulevard and Gibbs Street serve the urban and residential area of the city. In Acuña, Highway 2/29 is the major highway that passes through the municipality. Figure 1-2 shows the location of the cities of Del Rio and Acuña, as well as other major cities close to the Texas–Mexico border and the POEs along the border. The Del Rio POE is located along the southwest portion of the border. The nearest major POEs are in Eagle Pass, TX and Laredo, TX. The Del Rio POE is connected to Acuña and the Eagle Pass POE connects to Piedras Negras, both within the State of Coahuila.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 1-2 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 1. INTRODUCTION

Figure 1-2. Major Texas-Mexico Border POEs

Del Rio’s population has been growing steadily over the last 15 years. The Acuña area has also experienced rapid population growth in recent years and is one of the fastest-growing cities in Mexico, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5 percent from 1990 to 2010.1 Nearly 50 maquiladoras contribute to the economy of the Del Rio–Acuña area. Most of these facilities operate with a “twin plant” model, in which manufacturing is based in Acuña while shipping and management facilities are in Del Rio.2 With such a business model, it is reasonable to expect that the Project will accommodate most of the commercial traffic between U.S. and Mexican facilities in the region. In addition to the truck traffic associated with the maquiladora industry, many other vehicles travel the roadways of the study area daily. These vehicles might include cross-border commuters destined for educational institutions or commuters driving to their places of employment. Others cross the border on their way to the many retail attractions located within the study area, or for other non-work related trips. The combination of various traffic generators is unique to this region and has resulted in, and continues to contribute to, steady growth on both sides of the border.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 1-3 DRAFT V1 1. INTRODUCTION

The current facilities for handling cross-border traffic within the study area consist of the Lake Amistad Dam POE and the existing Del Rio POE. The Lake Amistad Dam POE is a 0.4-mile, two- lane road that is un-tolled and serves passenger cars only. Its hours of operation are from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., seven days a week. It records little daily traffic, with less than 1,000 vehicles per day (vpd). In contrast, the Del Rio POE operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for passenger vehicles; the hours of operation for commercial vehicles are 8:00 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. Monday through Friday and 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Saturday, with no commercial traffic allowed on Sundays.3 Traffic on the existing Del Rio bridge over the last 20 years has ranged from 5,700 to 10,000 vpd.

1.3. Objective and Scope of the Study The current study follows C&M’s “S&B Del Rio ~ Acuña II International Port of Entry Feasibility Study (Phase I),” which was completed in April 2014. This feasibility study included econometric- model-based forecasts using historical data, demographic forecasts, and socioeconomic conditions within the study area. Following the completion of this Phase I feasibility study, the location for the Project was chosen to be north of the existing bridge. In 2015, the Del Rio City Council and International Bridge Board authorized a Phase II feasibility study for the Project to determine if the expected traffic flow warrants a new bridge.4 The aim of this Level 2 analysis is to create T&R forecasts for the Project, with results expressed in annual toll transactions and toll revenue over a 30-year period beginning in 2020. C&M built upon the previous knowledge and efforts related to the Phase I feasibility study with the following data collection:  Review of existing information (e.g., traffic counts), classification data, a stated preference (SP) survey, and an origin-destination (OD) survey completed in March 2014 (“Financial Feasibility for the New Cd Acuña International Crossing II, in the State of Coahuila” by Felipe Ochoa y Asociados [FOA Consulting])  Speed data collection for major roadways on both sides of the border via Google’s database One major improvement over the previous sketch-level study is the development of a travel demand model (TDM) to replicate the existing conditions of the study area and develop traffic demand and, ultimately, the final T&R forecast. The C&M Del Rio–Acuña Travel Demand Model (CMDATDM) was calibrated to base year 2014 conditions using the newly-collected data described above, as well as the latest socioeconomic data from the Project’s surrounding region.

1.4. Organization of the Report This report is organized into five chapters. The remaining chapters are outlined below:  Chapter 2 provides a review of historical traffic trends and characteristics of existing traffic within the study area, including those typical of traffic crossing the U.S.–Mexican border. Background information regarding the Mexican traffic network near the border and a description of government programs that impact cross-border travel are also provided in this chapter.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 1-4 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 1. INTRODUCTION

 Chapter 3 summarizes C&M’s socioeconomic evaluation of the study area, including existing and forecasted socioeconomic data.  Chapter 4 explains the travel demand modeling procedure undertaken by C&M in its effort to develop T&R estimates based on socioeconomic inputs and traffic characteristics within the study area.  Chapter 5 summarizes the results of C&M’s econometric model and presents demand forecasts for the existing and new bridge, followed by the annual T&R forecast developed based on C&M’s toll transaction and revenue projections.

1 Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, Mexico (n.d.). Datos de la Población Mexicana. Retrieved August 4, 2014 from http://www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/default.aspx

2 Litwin, K. (2014, July 23). Del Rio, TX economy and more plans move forward. Retrieved from http://www.livability.com/tx/del-rio/business/del-rio-tx-economy-and-more-plans-move-forward

3 Texas Department of Transportation (2015). Texas-Mexico international bridges and border crossings: Existing and proposed 2015. Retrieved from https://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/iro/international- bridges.pdf

4 Cervantez, A. (2016, February 2). News update: Second international bridge. Retrieved from http://www.delriohispanicchamber.org/drhcc-news/news-update-second-international-bridge

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 1-5 DRAFT V1

Chapter 2 EXISTING INFORMATION

This chapter presents an overview of existing traffic-related data corresponding to the study area, including the historical traffic data and trends of relevant roadway networks and international bridges, seasonality factors, travel times, and the current traffic patterns that were used for this study’s T&R forecast. Since the traffic pattern of the study area is strongly affected by cross-border traffic, this chapter also discusses border trends and policies. To analyze traffic patterns within the study area, C&M updated the traffic data collected during its previous sketch level study for the Project. This chapter begins with a discussion of the existing roadway networks in the Del Rio and Acuña areas, along with corresponding historical traffic data in the form of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT).

2.1. Existing Roadway Network: Del Rio Area The Del Rio area’s existing roadway network is illustrated in Figure 2-1.

Figure 2-1. Existing Roadway Network – Del Rio Area

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-1 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

The Del Rio area is served by two major roads: US 90, in the northwest portion of the study area, bypasses the city along Texas State Highway Loop 79 (Loop 79) and heads east towards San Antonio; US 277/US 377 is a north-south route, merging with US 90 to the north of Del Rio, traveling along Loop 79, and then continuing south as US 277. In addition, major arterials such as Veterans Boulevard and Gibbs Street serve the city’s urban and residential areas. Figure 2-2 illustrates the AADT count locations, which were obtained from the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT)1 and were used to calibrate C&M’s travel demand model (TDM), as discussed in Chapter 4. A selection of these locations was analyzed in detail for historical trends, as presented in the following sections.

Figure 2-2. AADT Count Locations – Del Rio Area

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-2 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

2.1.1. US 277/US 377 US 277/US 377 is a north-south route that enters Val Verde County from the north and moves into Kinney County in the southeast. It connects to Del Rio’s residential area via Veterans Boulevard in the north and via Dr. Fermin Calderon Boulevard in the southeast. US 277/US 377 previously traveled through Del Rio along Veterans Boulevard but now bypasses Del Rio and merges with Loop 79, which opened in 2012 and provides relief for through-traffic by avoiding residential areas of the city. This shared route with Loop 79 begins at US 90 in the west and shares another interchange with US 90 near the Laughlin Airforce Base (LAFB) before continuing southward. Historical traffic along US 277/US 377 from 2002 to 2014 was analyzed at the LAFB South Entrance. As shown in Figure 2-3, AADT was generally steady during this period, ranging from 2,500 to 3,200 vpd, with a 2014 AADT of approximately 2,800 vpd. Figure 2-3 illustrates the historical AADT for these locations.

Figure 2-3. US 277/US 377 AADT at the LAFB South Entrance

2.1.2. US 90 US 90 is primarily an east-west route, entering Val Verde County from Terrell County in the northwest and exiting to Kinney County in the southeast. This facility provides access to the Lake Amistad Dam crossing in the northwest and to the LAFB in the southeast, as well as direct access to San Antonio further east. Similar to US 277/US 377, US 90 merges with Loop 79 within the study area. Major interchanges with US 277/US 377 are located to the north and to the east of Del Rio, and it has an interchange with FM 2523 just north of the eastern interchange with US 277/US 377. Historical AADT counts for US 90 from 2002 to 2014 were analyzed at two locations: at Las Brisas Boulevard (west of the northern interchange with US 277/US 377) and west of FM 2523. At Las Brisas Boulevard, AADT on US 90 ranged from approximately 5,400 (2003) to 6,900 vpd (2011), with a 2014 AADT of about 5,600 vpd. West of FM 2523, AADT ranged from approximately 15,000 (2008) to 20,000 vpd (2007), with a 2014 AADT of about 16,200 vpd. Figure 2-4 presents historical AADT volumes at selected locations along US 90.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-3 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Figure 2-4. US 90 AADT at Selected Locations

2.1.3. Veterans Boulevard Veterans Boulevard is a north-south major arterial in Del Rio, providing access to the residential areas of the city. Before Loop 79 was built, US 277/US 377 passed through the city along this route before becoming a highway again near the LAFB South Entrance. Veterans Boulevard provides a direct connection to the existing international bridge through Business 277 (BUS 277) and State Loop 239. Two locations were analyzed for historical AADT: south of the US 90/US 277 interchange and south of Mary Lou Drive. South of US 90, AADT ranged from approximately 7,000 (2012) to 9,600 vpd (2005), with a 2014 AADT of 7,600 vpd. South of Mary Lou Drive, 2014 AADT was the lowest of the last 12 years at roughly 23,800 vpd, whereas the maximum AADT was 33,000 vpd in 2008. The recent decline in traffic could be due to the downturn in the economy and the opening of Loop 79, which can be used to bypass Veterans Boulevard. Figure 2-5 presents the AADTs for Veterans Boulevard.

Figure 2-5. Veterans Blvd. AADT at Selected Locations

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-4 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

2.1.4. Other Arterials Gibbs Street (west of Veterans Boulevard) and Margarita Avenue (south of Ogden Street) were also analyzed for historical trends, as illustrated in Figure 2-6. Both have exhibited similar traffic volumes in recent years, with 2014 AADTs of approximately 15,000 vpd.

Figure 2-6. Other Arterials’ AADTs at Selected Locations

Based on the trends observed at selected locations, it is worth noting that the traffic across the area’s major facilities did not change significantly between 2002 and 2014, and the Great Recession did not have a significant impact on traffic patterns in the study area.

2.2. Existing Roadway Network: Acuña Area The traffic network in and around the Mexican city of Acuña comprises one major federal highway (MEX2/29) and local arterials. The local arterials that service both residential and industrial traffic in the area include Lib. Emilio Mendoza Cisneros, Av. Sta. Teresa, and Av. Sur Pte. Figure 2-7 presents these roads along with AADT count locations, 2015 AADT counts, and compound annual growth rates (CAGR) from 2004 to 2015. These counts were summarized from the State of Coahuila maps published by the Secretaria De Communicaciones Y Transportes (SCT).2

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-5 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Figure 2-7. Acuña Road Network and AADT Counts

2.2.1. Highway 2/29 (MEX2/29) MEX2 begins just south of the Lake Amistad Reservoir and runs parallel to the border through Acuña. At Calle Boulevard Adolfo López Mateos, this route merges with MEX29 and heads south through Acuña, then east. Further east of Acuña, the corridor splits back into two separate routes along MEX2 and MEX29. Historical AADTs from 2004 to 2015, illustrated in Figure 2-8, were analyzed at the following four locations for MEX2 and two locations for MEX29:  MEX2 (1): West of the existing POE, near the road’s merger with MEX29; this location exhibited the highest AADT in 2015. The increase in traffic from 2011 to 2012 is due to a change in the location of the count station. The maps published by SCT indicate that a different location (1.5 miles south) was used for the station beginning in 2012.  MEX2 (2): Further west of the existing POE, near the industrial parks and the Project.  MEX2 (3): Near the Lake Amistad Dam; this location exhibited the lowest AADT in 2015.  MEX2 (4): Along the merge with MEX29, west of the intersection with Av. Sur Pte.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-6 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

 MEX29 (1): Along the merge with MEX2, east of the intersection with Av. Sur Pte.  MEX29 (2): Before the southeastern split of MEX29 and MEX2. For analysis purposes, the general trends were considered rather than the actual annual growth rates of any specific location because of inconsistencies in the available data.

Figure 2-8. MEX2 and MEX29 AADTs: 2004 to 2015

2.3. Existing Ports of Entry in the Study Area The study area contains two POE crossings, as previously presented in Figure 2-1: the existing Del Rio-Acuña POE, which utilizes the Del Rio-Ciudad Acuña International Bridge, and the Lake Amistad Dam POE. This section describes the POE crossings in Texas, with an emphasis on these two within the study area. As illustrated in Figure 2-9, the state of Texas currently has 28 border crossings, including 25 international bridges, two dam crossings, and one hand-drawn ferry. This total does not include the La Linda Bridge, which was closed on April 15, 1996, and the Roma International Bridge, which is currently closed and being considered for rehabilitation.3

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-7 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Figure 2-9. Existing Ports of Entry along the International Border

Figure 2-10 presents the annual inbound border crossings for both POEs in the study area and for all Texas POEs combined, as obtained from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).4 All border crossings are indexed to the year 2000. The figure illustrates a common trend in border crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border: high growth from 1995 to 2002, a steady drop from 2003 to 2010, and stabilization and modest growth beginning in 2010. Between 2010 and 2015, total vehicular crossings exhibited a CAGR of 2.9 percent at the study area POEs and 1.6 percent across all Texas POEs.

Figure 2-10. Study Area Annual Inbound Crossings – All Vehicles (Indexed to Year 2000)

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-8 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

2.3.1. Del Rio-Ciudad Acuña International Bridge The Del Rio-Ciudad Acuña International Bridge is located in Del Rio, TX and is owned by the City of Del Rio and by Caminos y Puentes Federales (CAPUFE), a dependency of the SCT. It connects to BUS 277S/Spur 239 on the U.S. side of the border and to MEX2/29 via arterials on the Mexican side. The bridge serves as a Class A POE, where any foreign national may apply for entry. It is a four-lane tolled bridge with two pedestrian crosswalks, and it services both passenger vehicles (PV) and commercial vehicles (CV). The northbound lanes feed into two inspection booths for CVs and six inspection booths for PVs. PVs can also utilize a Secure Electronic Network for Travelers’ Rapid Inspection (SENTRI) lane and Ready lanes, which use Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology to speed up the border-crossing process. The bridge operates 24 hours a day, 7 days per week for PVs; the hours of operation for CVs are 8:00 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. Monday through Friday and 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Saturday, with no commercial traffic allowed on Sunday. The toll rates, as of September 2016, are presented in Table 2-1.5

Table 2-1. Toll Rates for Southbound Del Rio-Ciudad Acuña Bridge Class Vehicle Classification Toll ($) Extra Axle 1 Autos/Pickups & Motorcycles $3.50 $1.75 2 2-Axle Truck $12.00 $1.75 3 3-Axle Truck $18.00 $6.00 4 4-Axle Truck $24.00 $6.00 5 5-Axle Truck $30.00 $6.00 6 6-Axle Truck $36.00 $6.00 7 Recreational Vehicles $12.00 $1.75 8 Buses $12.00 $1.75 9 Bicycles/Pedestrians $0.75 NA 10 Autos/Pickups & Motorcycles - Fri & Sat 9pm - 5am $3.50 $1.75 Source: City of Del Rio

Table 2-2 presents northbound annual PV and CV crossings on the Del Rio-Ciudad Acuña International Bridge from 2000 to 2015.6 The data indicate a steady decline in PV crossings after the events of September 11, 2001, when excessive delays at the border became commonplace, forcing many travelers to consolidate their trips. The recent state of the economy, in terms of the Great Recession, has also played a role in reducing the number of PVs crossing bridges at the border. Although CV crossings were also impacted by the Great Recession, they have since rebounded to a greater extent than passenger cars, surpassing pre-recession volumes. Also worth noting is the elimination of bus crossings in recent years, which is the result of a private bus service between Acuña and Del Rio being discontinued in 2008.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-9 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Table 2-2. Del Rio-Acuña POE Annual Northbound Crossings Commercial Passenger All Vehicles Year Buses Pedestrians All Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles (% Change) 2000 61,200 7,100 1,927,200 265,300 1,995,500 2001 59,900 6,900 1,907,000 258,100 1,973,800 -1% 2002 72,000 6,600 2,029,500 167,200 2,108,100 7% 2003 65,600 4,200 1,819,500 132,200 1,889,300 -10% 2004 64,100 200 1,796,200 99,700 1,860,500 -2% 2005 64,100 1,100 1,743,300 88,400 1,808,500 -3% 2006 65,500 1,500 1,716,300 68,900 1,783,300 -1% 2007 63,500 2,600 1,529,800 44,900 1,595,900 -11% 2008 57,200 200 1,487,700 58,200 1,545,100 -3% 2009 49,500 0 1,322,000 61,600 1,371,500 -11% 2010 55,900 0 1,210,400 77,400 1,266,300 -8% 2011 63,200 0 1,198,700 84,600 1,261,900 0% 2012 65,500 0 1,225,400 90,700 1,290,900 2% 2013 67,700 0 1,217,000 100,400 1,284,700 0% 2014 69,000 0 1,299,100 104,300 1,368,100 6% 2015 70,000 0 1,417,800 132,900 1,487,800 9% Source: Laredo Field Office, CBP

CV crossings have benefitted significantly from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was implemented in 1994. As shown in Figure 2-11, CV crossings exhibited significant growth from 1995 to 2002. A period of steady growth continued up to 2008, at which point the economic downturn resulted in reduced CV crossings. Between 1995 and 2002, CV crossings increased at a CAGR of 9.8 percent, followed by a negative CAGR of -5.2 percent from 2002 to 2009. Since 2010, the trend has been positive, with a CAGR of 4.6 percent.

Figure 2-11. Study Area Annual Inbound CV Crossings (Indexed to Year 2000)

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-10 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

2.3.2. Lake Amistad Dam Port of Entry The Lake Amistad Dam POE is in southern Val Verde County on Spur 349 and US 90, providing a crossing for the Rio Grande, south of Lake Amistad. The dam is a 0.4-mile, two-lane, toll-free road that serves PVs only. Its hours of operation are from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., seven days a week. The Amistad Dam connects to US 90 and Del Rio through Spur 349 on the U.S. side of the border. On the Mexican side, MEX2 starts immediately after the Dam crossing. This POE is Class B, designated for foreign nationals who, at the time of applying for admission, are either permanent residents in possession of a foreign national registration receipt card, a valid nonresident with a foreign national border crossing card, or are admissible without documents under documentary waiver provisions. Compared to the Del Rio-Ciudad Acuña International Bridge, the Lake Amistad POE handles significantly less traffic for several reasons: It is located farther from residential areas and industrial parks, it has limited hours of operation, and it has a lower lane capacity, among other factors. Table 2-3 presents northbound annual PV crossings at the Lake Amistad Dam POE from 2000 to 2015.6 Crossings exhibited strong growth from 2000 to 2003, followed by a generally steady decline from 2003 to 2010. From 2010 to 2012, crossings stabilized and then began to show slight growth into 2013. The dam was closed due to construction in 2015 for more than 6 months, resulting in fewer total crossings for that year.7

Table 2-3. Lake Amistad Dam POE Annual Northbound PV Crossings

Year PV Crossings % Change Year PV Crossings % Change 2000 42,000 2008 71,000 2001 50,000 19% 2009 53,000 -25% 2002 67,000 34% 2010 38,000 -28% 2003 93,000 39% 2011 41,000 8% 2004 82,000 -12% 2012 41,000 0% 2005 65,000 -21% 2013 51,000 24% 2006 66,000 2% 2014 49,000 -4% 2007 81,000 23% 2015* 21,000 -57% Note: * Dam was closed for construction in 2015 for more than 6 months Source: Laredo Field Office, CBP

2.3.3. Commodity Shipment Types When forecasting CV traffic, it is crucial to not only look at the overall growth pattern but to observe the growth trends of the goods that are shipped across the border. Along the entire Mexican-U.S. border, POEs are specialized for certain types of goods. This specialization affects historical growth rates as well as future forecasts for CV crossings. Figure 2-12 and Figure 2-13 illustrate recent historical trends regarding the quantity of goods imported, by category, and the corresponding dollar value. Both figures indicate that imports are dominated (both in weight and value) by two categories: machinery and steel/metal/mineral products.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-11 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Figure 2-12. Study Area POEs – Imports Weights (Metric Tons)

Figure 2-13. Study Area POEs – Imports in Dollars (Billions)

Table 2-4 and Table 2-5 present the weight (in metric tons) and dollar value, respectively, of commodities imported annually from 2007 to 2015. Out of 99 commodity types, C&M reviewed the top 5 commodities by dollar value, which represent approximately 90 percent of total imports. These commodities represent mostly maquiladora production and have grown at a combined CAGR of 4 percent (by weight) and 9 percent (by value) between 2007 and 2015. The commodity related to car seats, “furniture; bedding; mattress supports; cushions and similar stuffed furnishings; lighting fittings,” is the dominant production item in Ciudad Acuña and has grown by a CAGR of at least 10 percent (by value) since 2007. These trends are consistent with all other indicators presented in this study for maquiladora production. Therefore, for a study of this level, maquiladora trends are considered a reasonable data source for determining future projections.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-12 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Table 2-4. Top Five Imported Commodities at Del Rio POE, by Weight

Commodity 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; 44,607 37,474 31,840 34,451 42,866 52,705 52,901 59,438 56,274 Sound recorders and reproducers Vehicles; other than railway or tramway rolling stock; and parts 26,677 20,914 16,433 28,238 37,162 47,917 43,187 48,429 47,562 and accessories thereof Furniture; Bedding; mattress supports; cushions and similar 20,143 15,369 11,922 27,325 31,588 35,375 45,451 48,418 44,366 stuffed furnishings; Lighting fittings Nuclear reactors; boilers; machinery and mechanical 42,835 41,804 36,157 42,870 50,449 45,909 44,251 44,261 44,315 appliances; parts thereof

Plastics and articles thereof 24,013 31,297 47,294 43,257 43,882 46,658 32,223 25,495 25,084

Table 2-5. Top Five Imported Commodities at Del Rio POE, by Value (Thousands of Dollars)

Commodity 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Furniture; Bedding; mattress supports; cushions and similar $283,786 $196,686 $142,311 $336,090 $431,626 $515,130 $696,985 $778,876 $827,022 stuffed furnishings; Lighting fittings Nuclear reactors; boilers; machinery and mechanical $314,938 $378,878 $285,894 $422,836 $569,006 $551,645 $571,810 $619,379 $639,113 appliances; parts thereof Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; $397,818 $327,916 $270,160 $312,751 $382,816 $478,971 $495,956 $591,826 $558,268 Sound recorders and reproducers Vehicles; other than railway or tramway rolling stock; and parts $256,182 $189,515 $173,313 $305,530 $399,783 $476,205 $431,155 $481,043 $495,309 and accessories thereof

Plastics and articles thereof $55,755 $82,112 $78,161 $73,424 $76,619 $88,257 $81,042 $70,366 $66,696

2.4. Permanent Traffic Count Stations TxDOT maintains ten permanent count stations within and around the study area, as illustrated in Figure 2-14.8 C&M analyzed data from a subset of these stations to further evaluate the historical traffic trends of the region, particularly seasonal variations in traffic on the major roadways.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-13 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Figure 2-14. TxDOT Permanent Count Locations

2.4.1. Seasonality Factor Seasonal variation is an important factor to consider when making annual projections, as it can have a significant impact on traffic patterns. This section summarizes the effects of seasonal changes on traffic patterns within the study area and surrounding region. The following stations that are relevant to this analysis, and for which data was available, were selected:  S103: US 90, 0.3 miles west of its northern intersection with US 277/377  S271: US 90, 3.9 miles east of FM 2523  S274: US 277, 5.2 miles south of Recreational Road 2  S294: US 90, 7.9 miles northwest of Spur 349 Traffic counts obtained from these stations represent both PV and CV traffic. Count data by month (for each available year) was analyzed to determine seasonality factors.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-14 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Figure 2-15 displays the 2014 AADTs at these permanent stations. Station S103 exhibited the highest volume, with an AADT of 5,975 vpd, followed by station S271 with 4,225 vpd.

Figure 2-15. 2014 AADT at Selected Permanent Count Stations

The seasonal variations in AADT at the selected stations, by month and year, are illustrated in Figure 2-16. The traffic patterns observed on US 90 at station S103 indicate strong seasonality. At this location, average monthly factors ranged from 0.92 to 1.16, with the Easter season standing out as a high traffic period, while January and the fall months exhibited the lowest volumes. Similar results were found for the other locations examined, with seasonality factors ranging from 0.83 to 1.11. In addition to the common seasonal pattern, station S274 on US 277 exhibited high traffic volumes during summer months, and station S294 on US 90 exhibited its highest traffic volumes in December.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-15 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Figure 2-16. Seasonality Factors at Selected Permanent Count Stations

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-16 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Figure 2-16. Seasonality Factors at Selected Permanent Count Stations (Cont’d.)

2.4.2. Seasonality in Mexico Seasonality in Mexico was analyzed based on the traffic counts published by the SCT.2 Figure 2-17 illustrates the monthly ADTs just south of the international bridge in the northbound direction on Francesco Javier Mina from 2012 to 2014. As shown, the facility exhibits seasonality factors ranging from 0.89 to 1.07. The highest traffic volumes are observed in the months typically associated with vacations, such as summer and Christmas, while the lowest traffic volumes are observed in January and February.

Figure 2-17. Seasonality Factors at Francesco Javier Mina (South of the Int’l Bridge)

2.5. Border Traffic Trends Given that the traffic characteristics of the study area are influenced by Mexican-U.S. border traffic, the following sections discuss border traffic trends and the policies that influence these trends.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-17 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

2.5.1. Passenger Vehicles Similar to all border regions, the study area is composed of a unique traffic composition of local and regional commuters. PV crossings on the existing international bridge tend to be higher during the weekends, due mostly to Mexican visitors to retail malls in the study area. For the existing bridge, average traffic on weekends was slightly higher than the average traffic on weekdays between February 2015 and February 2016, as illustrated in Figure 2-18. However, for CVs, traffic during weekends was significantly lower than weekday traffic. Average weekend traffic was less than 20 percent of the weekday traffic during the same period, as shown in Figure 2-19.

Figure 2-18. Southbound Border Weekday/Weekend Daily Traffic (All Vehicles)

Figure 2-19. Southbound Border Weekday/Weekend Daily Traffic (CVs)

PVs from the United States and Mexico also use the existing bridge in typical commuter patterns, such as workers traveling to industrial parks on both sides of the border in the morning and returning home in the afternoon. In addition, some Mexican drivers travel north to American schools and universities, creating familiar school trip patterns across the bridge.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-18 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

2.5.2. Commercial Vehicles Regarding the composition of international trade and CV travel patterns, each region along the U.S.-Mexican border has its own specific characteristics and markets. In the study area, international trade is primarily driven by the local maquiladoras. Figure 2-20 presents the location of the industrial/maquiladora parks in the United States and in Mexico.

Figure 2-20. Industrial/Maquiladora Parks in the Study Area

CV travel patterns between the cities on both sides of the border are generally short haul in nature, known within the industry as “cartage” or “transfer” hauling. The maquiladora trade activity is accomplished by means of short-haul truck movements. Typically, these trucks pick up products from their origins at maquiladora plants on the Mexican side and haul them across the border to interim distribution centers in Del Rio and surrounding areas. Conversely, trucks on the U.S. side of the border pick up components from warehouses in Del Rio and surrounding areas and deliver them to maquiladora plants in Acuña to the south. Short-haul truck movements are attractive for the produce industry because trucks in Mexico are allowed to carry 125,000 pounds, whereas trucks heavier than 80,000 pounds are required to have an overweight permit in the United States. When overweight trucks arrive at the border, they typically re-distribute their cargo to other trucks in order to cross the border. Table 2-6 presents the current truck regulations in the United States and Mexico.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-19 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Table 2-6. U.S. and Mexican Truck Regulations Standard Height Width Weight U.S. 14 ft. 8.5 ft. 80,000 lbs. Mexico 15 ft., 6 in. 12 ft. 125,000 lbs. Source: U.S. Department of Transportation

2.5.3. Border Crossing Seasonality As discussed earlier, seasonal variation is an important factor to consider when developing annual projections, as it can have a significant impact on traffic patterns. Figure 2-21 and Figure 2-22 depict monthly seasonality factors for northbound PVs and CVs, respectively, at the Del Rio- Ciudad Acuña International Bridge from 2010 to 2015. Average monthly factors for PVs range from 0.86 to 1.09. PV patterns indicate an increase in traffic during the Christmas and Easter months, seasons of the year when Mexican citizens typically go on holiday. Except for 2010, December exhibited the highest PV traffic in all years. The corresponding CV data indicates a stronger impact of seasonality, with factors ranging from 0.80 to 1.12. Truck volumes are at their lowest during the winter months, particularly during the December holiday season; the highest volumes are observed primarily in March, August, and October.

Figure 2-21. Passenger Vehicle Seasonality Factors

Figure 2-22. Commercial Vehicle Seasonality Factors

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-20 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

2.6. Travel Time Study C&M collected travel time data via Google’s database for use in calibrating travel times in the base year TDM (see Chapter 4). As shown in Figure 2-23, C&M identified the following key routes on both sides of the border for data collection:  Del Rio Route 1: US 90, between Spur 349 and Loop 79  Del Rio Route 2: Gibbs Street/Loop 239, between the international border and Loop 79  Del Rio Route 3: Veterans Boulevard, Bedell Avenue, Margarita Avenue, and Dr. Fermin Calderon Boulevard, between Braddie Drive and US 277  Del Rio Route 4: Loop 79, between northern US 277 and US 90  Del Rio Route 5: Loop 79, between US 90 and southern US 277  Acuña Route 1: Calle Av. Sta. Teresa, between MEX2 and Av Sur Pte  Acuña Route 2: MEX29, between Calle Av Sta Teresa and Calle V. Guerrero  Acuña Route 3: Emiliano Zapata Boulevard, between MEX2 and Calle Prisma  Acuña Route 4: MEX2, between Calle Amistad and Calle A. Lopez Mateos  Acuña Route 5: MEX29, between Agustin de Iturbide and Inicio Carr. Morelos-Cd Acuña

Figure 2-23. Google Database Travel Time Routes

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-21 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

Travel time data was collected for approximately one month between June 2016 and July 2016. A summary of the average daily travel time traversing each route, in both directions, is shown in Table 2-7. Results indicate that traffic congestion on most routes is not significant.

Table 2-7. Google Database: Travel Time Collection

Length Observed Time Route # Corridor Direction From To (mi) (min) EB Spur 349 Loop 79 6.2 5.9 1 US 90 WB Loop 79 Spur 349 6.2 5.8

Gibbs St. / Loop EB Del Rio Int'l Border Loop 79/US 90 7.6 12.5 D 2 239 e WB Loop 79/US 90 Del Rio Int'l Border 7.5 12.5 l Veterans Blvd., EB Braddie Dr. US 277 6.9 12.3 3 Bedell Ave., R Margarita Ave., WB US 277 Braddie Dr. 6.9 12.0 i EB South of US 277 North of US 90 2.7 2.6 o 4 Loop 79 WB North of US 90 South of US 277 2.8 2.7 SB South of US 90 North of US 277 9.0 7.9 5 Loop 79 NB North of US 277 South of US 90 9.0 7.9

Calle Av. Sta. SB Carr Presa de la Amistad (MEX2) Av Sur Pte 1.5 3.6 1 Teresa NB Av Sur Pte Carr Presa de la Amistad (MEX2) 1.5 3.7

Lib. Jose de Las EB Calle Av. Sta Teresa Calle V. Guerrero 2.7 8.1 2 Fuentes (MEX29) A WB Calle V. Guerrero Calle Av. Sta Teresa 2.7 8.8 c Emiliano Zapata EB Carr Presa de la Amistad (MEX2) Calle Prisma 1.6 7.9 u 3 (Blvd./Calle) ñ WB Calle Prisma Carr Presa de la Amistad (MEX2) 1.5 7.6 a Carr. Presa la EB Calle Amistad Calle A. Lopez Mateos 4.1 11.8 4 Amistad (MEX2) WB Calle A. Lopez Mateos Calle Amistad 4.1 11.0

Blvd. Vicente EB Agustin de Iturbide Inicio Carr. Morelos-Cd Acuna 4.0 10.6 5 Guerrero (MEX29) WB Inicio Carr. Morelos-Cd Acuna Agustin de Iturbide 4.0 10.1 2.7. External Station Counts As shown in Figure 2-24, the following external count stations were adopted for the TDM:  Station 1: Lake Amistad Dam  Station 2: US 90, north of Lake Amistad Reservoir  Station 3: US 277/377, southern Val Verde County  Station 4: County Rd 2523, north-eastern Val Verde County  Station 5: US 90, east of LAFB  Station 6: US 277/377, northern Val Verde County  Station 7: Del Rio-Acuña International Bridge

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-22 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

These stations were chosen based on traffic count data available from TxDOT maps.1 Table 2-8 presents the AADTs for these locations from 2000 to 2014. Most count locations exhibited negative CAGRs, ranging from -0.6 percent at Station 2 (US 90) to -2.0 percent at Station 4 (County Road 2523). Stations 3, 5 and 6 exhibited positive CAGR during the 14-year period. For both existing POEs (stations 1 & 7), annual crossing data from BTS, CBP, and the City of Del Rio were also considered in the analysis.

Figure 2-24. External Stations

Table 2-8. External Station Traffic Counts and Growth Rates: 2000–2014

AADT 2000-2014 Location 2000 2005 2010 2014 CAGR 2 - US 90 2,100 2,540 2,300 1,932 -0.6% 3 - US 377 1,250 1,550 1,600 1,500 1.3% 4 - County Rd 2523 120 150 120 91 -2.0% 5 - US 90 - East of LAFB 3,400 3,500 3,100 3,725 0.7% 6 - US 277/377 2,600 3,200 2,600 2,855 0.7%

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-23 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

2.8. Government Policies This section discusses several government policies that can aid in understanding factors other than the economy that impact border crossings. These policies and their effects on border crossings are summarized in Table 2-9 and explained in detail below.

Table 2-9. Border Policies and their Effect on Border Crossings Border Policy Year Effect North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) 1994 Positive

Secure Electronic Network for Travelers Rapid Inspection (SENTRI) 1995 Positive

U.S. Trucking Legislation 1995 Positive

The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA) 1996 Negative

Mexican Border Crossing Cards (Laser Visas) 1998 Positive The Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to 2001 Negative Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act (USA PATRIOT) The Enhanced Border Security and Visa Entry Reform Act 2002 Negative

México’s Policies Against Organized Crime 2006 Mixed

The Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI) 2007 Negative

Ready Lanes 2010 Positive

Sistema de Aforo Vehicular (SIAVE) 2011 Negative

2.8.1. The North American Free Trade Agreement U.S.–Mexican economic integration boomed in the 1980s and 1990s, beginning with Mexico pursuing a unilateral liberalization of its economy—after decades of protectionism—and followed by a regional strategy that resulted in NAFTA’s implementation in 1994, eliminating duties and quantitative restrictions between the United States, Mexico, and Canada. This signature piece of legislation not only enhanced U.S.–Mexican economic integration but also resulted in an annual bilateral trade growth rate of 17.4 percent, the value of which doubled before the end of the decade. Since the year 2000, several regional and global factors have slowed the pace of integration, reducing the average annual increase in trade by 9.5 percent. Nevertheless, data published by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) indicates that the value of U.S.–Mexico trade increased by 99.2 percent from 2004 to 2015 (amounting to roughly $531 billion in 2015), while the value of Texas-Mexico trade increased by 91.0 percent over the same time period (amounting to roughly $178 billion, or 33.5 percent of all U.S.–Mexico trade).9 In short, NAFTA has served as a model of production sharing and cross-border investment among the three North American countries, fostering their economic interdependence.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-24 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

The increased trade resulting from NAFTA has had a large impact on CV traffic in particular, as the majority of U.S.-Mexico trade is conducted via surface modes of transportation, with CVs being the most common surface mode. This is particularly true in Texas; whereas 80 percent of the value of U.S.–Mexico surface trades is transported by CVs, it is 88 percent for Texas–Mexico surface trade.10 Furthermore, the number of northbound CV crossings at Texas land ports increased by over 130 percent from 1994 (1,623,816 crossings) to 2015 (3,811,021 crossings).11

2.8.2. Secure Electronic Network for Travelers Rapid Inspection The SENTRI program from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is a program for pre- approved, low-risk travelers that have access to specific dedicated primary lanes into the United States. Participants in the program wait for shorter periods of time than those in regular lanes when entering the United States through a land POE, even at the busiest time of day. Critical information required in the inspection process is provided to the officer in advance of the passenger’s arrival to the inspection booth, thus reducing the inspection time from an average of 30–40 seconds to an average of 10 seconds.12 CBP’s goal is that the waiting time for users in these dedicated lanes will not exceed 30 minutes. Applicants must voluntarily go through a biographical background check against criminal, law enforcement, customs, immigration, and terrorist databases, with an additional 10-fingerprint law enforcement check and a personal interview with a CBP officer. An approved SENTRI applicant will be issued an RFID card that will identify its record and status in the CBP database upon arrival at the U.S. POEs. In addition to the personal identification document, a transponder is also issued to the applicant’s vehicle or motorcycle. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some border crossers are reluctant to go through the detailed screening process for privacy or residency concerns. This, in combination with the high price, serves as a barrier to higher utilization rates for this program. SENTRI was first implemented at the Otay Mesa POE on November 1, 1995. A SENTRI lane is available for passenger vehicles on the existing Del Rio-Ciudad Acuña International Bridge, and the Project is assumed to utilize SENTRI lanes as well.

2.8.3. U.S. Trucking Legislation For many years, the system by which goods are shipped back and forth across the U.S.-Mexican border generally has involved three types of trucks. Typically, a Mexican long-haul truck is the first vehicle involved, delivering a container of goods to a location near the U.S. border. There, a so- called drayage service is employed to carry the goods across the border in a short-haul truck where, finally, a U.S.-based long-haul truck picks up the goods and delivers them to their final destination. The U.S. DOT estimates the cost of drayage at between $100 and $200 per trip,13 which—when multiplied by the 5.4 million commercial vehicles that crossed the southern U.S. border in 2014—puts the approximate cost of the drayage system at between $0.5 and $1.1 billion dollars a year. Under the terms of NAFTA, the United States agreed to allow Mexican commercial vehicles to transport goods into the United States, starting in 1995 with the border-states and extending throughout the country by 2000. Likewise, Mexico offered the same access to U.S. trucks. However, in 1995, President Clinton delayed implementation of those trucking provisions out of what his

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-25 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

administration considered to be a legitimate concern for safety. Clinton’s action was followed in 2001 by a NAFTA arbitration panel ruling in which the United States was declared out of compliance with its NAFTA obligations. In a renewed effort to implement cross-border trucking, President Bush took steps in 2002 to address the Clinton administration’s safety concerns; however, Bush’s attempts were thwarted by a series of legal challenges, which delayed the implementation of cross-border trucking until 2007. That year, a small pilot program was launched, thereby allowing a select few Mexican trucking companies to move beyond the designated 25-mile border zone they had been accessing since before NAFTA. In 2009, Congress put an end to the pilot program, and in March 2011, President Obama announced a breakthrough on the issue, which resulted in a new pilot plan granting U.S. access to Mexican commercial vehicles capable of meeting stringent safety standards. This pilot program lasted for three years, ending in October 2014. During this time, a total of 15 trucking companies were enrolled, which crossed the border over 28,000 times, traveled over 1.5 million miles in- country, and underwent over 5,500 safety inspections.14 On January 9, 2015, the U.S. DOT announced the success of this pilot program and the decision to allow Mexican motor carriers to apply for allowance to conduct long-haul, cross-border trucking services in the United States.14 Applying for long-haul allowance includes a $300 fee and requires passing a Pre-Authorization Safety Audit (PASA), as well as drug screening. Once approved, all vehicles operating in the United States are subject to Level 1 safety inspections every 90 days for 36 consecutive months, after which inspections are required every 12 months. While it is too early to tell how the lifting of restrictions on Mexican commercial vehicles will affect freight operations within the study area, in the long term, analysts believe transportation costs will go down and bilateral trade between the United States and Mexico will be stimulated.15 Also worth noting, officials within the U.S. and Mexican governments have pushed forward with their “21st Century Border” project. This project builds on the Bush administration’s “Smart Border Initiative,” which seeks to give a broader definition to the meaning of “border,” moving it beyond the notion of a simple line to a concept of secure flows.15

2.8.4. The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act In 1996, Congress began addressing the need for greater border security by passing the IIRIRA, under which border security provisions were concentrated along the U.S.–Mexican border with the intent of increasing border enforcement. Additionally, IIRIRA loosened the criteria for deportable offenses, as immediate deportation was previously only triggered for offenses that could lead to five years or more in jail. At the same time, to facilitate legitimate travel to the United States, IIRIRA sought to address the persistent problem of long delays at each POE by authorizing the hiring of enough inspectors in 1997 and 1998 to ensure full staffing during peak crossing hours. The act also authorized the U.S. Attorney General to formulate six inspection projects—such as the construction of dedicated commuter lanes—aimed at speeding up the border-crossing process for frequent crossers paying a fee.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-26 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

In an effort to stem illegal immigration, IIRIRA not only authorized the expansion of border barriers but also gave the Attorney General the authority to acquire and use all available federal equipment in the government’s attempt to reduce the flow of illegal immigrants into the United States. This legislation also authorized appropriations for the nationwide expansion of the Automated Biometric Fingerprint Identification System (IDENT) program—replaced in 2013 by the Department of Homeland Security Office of Biometric Identity Management (OBIM)—in order to include the fingerprints of all illegal or criminal aliens apprehended at the border. IIRIRA also contained a first-time provision requiring biometrics as one form of identity on certain travel documents. Specifically, the act required that the Secretary of State issue border-crossing cards bearing a biometric identifier that is machine-readable; furthermore, the biometric identifier must match the biometric characteristic of the card holder in order for that person to enter the United States.

2.8.5. Mexican Border Crossing Cards (Laser Visas) For decades, the United States has made special accommodations for Mexican nationals who visit the country frequently and conduct business in border communities. Mexican nationals applying for admission to the United States as visitors are required to obtain a visa or possess a Mexican Border Crossing Card (BCC).16 The first generation of BCCs were known as “laser visas.” These laminated cards—roughly the size of a credit card—were produced by the now defunct Immigration and Naturalization Service from April 1, 1998 to September 30, 2008. The Department of State began producing the second generation of BCCs on October 1, 2008, though laser visas are still considered valid until their expiration date. The new BCCs are similar in size to the laser visas but are more advanced, graphically and technologically. Like the SENTRI card, it includes an RFID chip. The BCC is valid for 10 years and can be used multiple times by citizens of Mexico desiring short- term entry (up to 6 months) for business or tourism in the United States, though it does not provide eligibility for employment in the United States. Mexican citizens can obtain a BCC from the Department of State Bureau of Consular Affairs if they are otherwise admissible as B-1 (business) or B-2 (tourism) nonimmigrants. In addition to meeting the eligibility standards of B1/B2 visas, first-time applicants are required to present a valid Mexican passport as primary evidence of their citizenship and identity. The current fee to apply for a BCC is $160.00 for those age 15 or older and $16.00 for those under age 15 (if a parent or guardian has a valid BCC or is also applying for one). The under-age BCC is valid for either 10 years or until the applicant reaches age 15, whichever is sooner. Most Mexican entrants with BCCs are not required to obtain an I-94 arrival/departure form if CBP officers determine that they do not intend to travel more than 25 miles into the country or stay more than 30 days. If it is determined by a CBP officer that a Mexican citizen intends to exceed either limit, the entrant is then referred to a secondary inspection point at the POE, where he or she will be subject to biometric requirements and issued an I-94 form, if no grounds are found on which to deny the application.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-27 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

The I-94 form is valid for six months and allows travel throughout the country. In recognition that a large number of Mexican citizens may need to go beyond the 25-mile zone during the holiday season, travelers can obtain an I-94 form up to 30 days before travel for a $6 fee. This process is intended to avoid congestion at the POE secondary inspection facilities during holidays and is not meant as an everyday crossing mechanism.

2.8.6. The Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act The 2001 USA PATRIOT Act called for the immediate implementation of an integrated entry and exit data system and required that the system be interoperable with other law enforcement data systems. Moreover, the act required the Attorney General and the Secretary of State to develop and certify a technology standard that could verify the identity of people seeking a visa to enter the United States. The mandate to implement an integrated entry and exit data system and the requirement that travel documents contain a biometric identifier have had direct implications on most foreign nationals seeking entry into the United States at the U.S.–Mexican border.

2.8.7. The Enhanced Border Security and Visa Entry Reform Act The Enhanced Border Security and Visa Entry Reform Act, signed into law on May 14, 2002, called on the Attorney General (now the Secretary of Homeland Security) to take additional measures in the government’s effort to secure U.S. borders. In addition to necessitating the interoperability of the Immigration and Naturalization Service’s (INS) databases, such that gathering data on individuals can be accomplished via a single search, this act mandated the installation of biometric data readers and scanners at all POEs and extended a previously set deadline requiring border crossing identification cards (laser visas) to contain a biometric identifier matching a biometric characteristic of the card holder.

2.8.8. Mexico’s Policies Against Organized Crime In 2006, Mexican President Felipe Calderon ordered 6,500 federal troops into the State of Michoacán in an effort to end the rampant drug violence there. Known as Operation Michoacán, this step was regarded as the first major initiative against organized crime in Mexico and, as such, was generally viewed as the starting point in the combat by the Mexican government against drug cartels. This combat continues today and has resulted in large-scale violence that affects the border region and its citizens on a daily basis, particularly as drug cartels engage not only the Mexican government but also each other, in their attempt to control drug trafficking routes into the United States. According to surveys conducted in 2010 by C&M in Mexico’s northeast border region, the perception of insecurity has translated into lower traffic volumes.17 Likewise, travelers living in the interior sections of the United States or Mexico are more often choosing to fly into or out of airports away from the Mexican border region rather than cross the border by land. However, recent trends have shown a decline in cartel-related crime in Mexican border cities,18 indicating a positive impact of Mexico’s policies, which could be one of the reasons that the passenger car crossings are not declining as they have in previous years. Nevertheless, concerns about crime may continue to influence automobile travelers’ route choices.

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-28 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

2.8.9. The Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative In April 2005, the U.S. Departments of State and Homeland Security unveiled their Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI), pursuant to section 7209 of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (the “9/11 Intelligence Bill”). As a result of this initiative, all travelers to and from the Americas—including Canada, Mexico, Central America, and South America—and to the Caribbean and Bermuda were required to possess a valid passport, or other accepted document or combination of documents, in order to enter or re-enter the United States. Phase one of WHTI, which instituted passport requirements for air travel, went into effect in 2007, followed by Phase two on June 1, 2009, which instituted passport requirements for land and sea travel into the United States. In addition, under the terms of WHTI, as of January 31, 2008, CBP officers ended their practice of accepting verbal declarations of citizenship from U.S. travelers at land POEs and instead began requiring each traveler to produce a secure document in order to enter or depart the country. It is suspected that these measures have had a negative impact on the number of trips taken by U.S. citizens into Mexico. Indeed, according to the WHTI Final Programmatic Environmental Assessment, while 43 percent of all U.S.-Mexican border crossings in 2004 were made by U.S. citizens, an estimated 68 percent of those travelers did not possess passports.19 Cost and convenience factors may have played a role in these findings, as it currently can take approximately 6 weeks for passport applications to be processed at a cost of $135 each, though expedited processing (3 weeks) can be purchased for an additional $60.

2.8.10. Ready Lanes The Ready program, or “Ready Lane,” is a dedicated primary vehicle lane for travelers entering the United States at land POEs. Travelers who obtain and travel with a WHTI-compliant, RFID-enabled travel document may receive the benefits of utilizing a Ready Lane. The Ready Lane border crossing stations can scan the card from 10–30 feet away. Travelers simply need to hold the RFID card up to the windshield while driving through the station. The CBP officer is then able to read all related information to the scanned user in a monitor, which makes the passport control process faster. Ready Lane users experience, on average, 15–20 seconds less processing time than travelers with no RFID. CBP launched the Ready Lane program in 2010 at the Ambassador Bridge POE in Detroit, MI. CBP expects that, as travel documents undergo a renewal cycle, 100 percent of all border crossers will have RFID in the near future, which will decrease waiting times at POEs. The existing Del Rio-Ciudad Acuña International Bridge utilizes Ready Lanes, and the Project is assumed to utilize Ready Lanes as well. Ready Lane users experience, on average, 15–20 seconds less processing time than travelers with no RFID card.

2.8.11. Sistemo de Aforo Vehicular The growing drug-related violence in Mexico has led to increased southbound inspections at many POEs, as part of the U.S. and Mexican governments’ attempts to slow the shipment of firearms and money linked to illicit activities in Mexico. In addition, the Mexican government has instituted Sistema de Aforo Vehicular (SIAVE), a program by which the actual weight of a vehicle is compared against a database; when a vehicle is discovered during inspection to be outside a

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-29 DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

prescribed weight range, it becomes subject to further scrutiny. In addition, on the U.S. side of the border, CBP conducts random inspections of vehicles before they cross into Mexico in an effort to intercept firearms and dirty money made from the sale of illegal drugs. These individual efforts—SIAVE and random inspections conducted by CBP—not only have added stress to a system that was not meant to handle southbound inspections, but they have resulted in increased wait times at the border. The programs, initiatives, and legislation outlined above demonstrate the lengths to which the U.S. and Mexican governments have gone to ensure border security in an age of international terrorism and drug trafficking. How these measures affect life and business along the U.S.– Mexican border is difficult to quantify; however, acknowledging their role is vital to the task of being able to accurately analyze border crossing trends and make predictions about the future of this region.

2.9. Automotive Industry Trends The study area is part of the Texas-Mexico Automotive Supercluster (TMASC) Region.20 The TMASC is a transnational region that consists of Texas, Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Coahuila, and San Luís Potosí. The NAFTA Highway, which consists of I-35 in Texas and MEX85 and MEX57 in Mexico, forms the backbone of this region. The TMASC Region is home to eight automotive assembly and parts plants, seven commercial and military vehicle manufacturing plants, nine heavy equipment manufacturers, and three specialty vehicle plants. The majority of these plants are clustered along the NAFTA Highway. The region also has over 230 Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) supplier plants and a labor pool of 17 million workers. Strong clusters of suppliers have developed in the Dallas-Fort Worth Area, San Antonio, along the Monterrey-Saltillo Corridor, and straddling the border in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The study area has six Tier 1 suppliers and one heavy machinery producer, Caterpillar, with a total workforce of approximately 10,000 people20, including two of the top 10 largest supplier plants in 20 the TMASC Region, Alcoa and Takata . The Desarrollo Económico de Ciudad Acuña, A.C. (DECA), a local group of private sector business, with the goal of improving the economic development of the region, has been working to increase the number of Maquiladora companies in the area. Any new manufacturing company in the study area is expected to increase both passenger and commercial traffic across the border.

1 TxDOT (n.d.). Transportation planning maps. Retrieved from http://www.txdot.gov/inside- txdot/division/transportation-planning/maps.html 2 Secretaria de Comunicaciones y Transportes (2015, Dec. 9). Dirección general de servicios técnicos: Datos viales. Retrieved from: http://www.sct.gob.mx/carreteras/direccion-general-de-servicios- tecnicos/datos-viales/

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry 2-30 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 2. EXISTING INFORMATION

3 TxDOT (2016, May 4). Texas-Mexico International Bridges and Border Crossings – Existing and Proposed 2015. Retrieved from https://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/iro/international-bridges.pdf 4 Border Crossing/Entry Data (n.d.). Retrieved from: https://transborder.bts.gov/programs/international/ transborder/TBDR_BC/TBDR_BCQ.html 5 City of Del Rio, Texas (n.d.). International bridge toll rates. Retrieved September 22, 2016 from http://www.cityofdelrio.com/770/International-Bridge-Toll-Rates 6 U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Laredo Field Office (2016, March 14). [Monthly border crossing data]. Unpublished data. 7 International Boundary and Water Commission, United States Section (2015, June 3). Amistad Dam road to remain closed in June. Retrieved from http://www.ibwc.state.gov/Files/Press_Release_060315.pdf 8 Texas Department of Transportation (n.d.). Permanent site locations map – 2016. Retrieved from http://www.txdot.gov/inside-txdot/division/transportation-planning/maps/permanent-2016.html 9 Bureau of Transportation Statistics , Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology (2016, July). North American Transborder Freight Data. Retrieved from http://transborder.bts.gov/programs/ international/transborder/TBDR_QA.html 10 Texas Department of Transportation, Freight Advisory Committee (2013, May). North American Free Trade Agreement: Is it Important for Texas? Retrieved from https://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot- info/freight/meetings/051413_white_paper_nafta.pdf 11 Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology (2016, March). Border crossing/Entry data. Retrieved from http://transborder.bts.gov/programs/ international/transborder/TBDR_BC/TBDR_BC_Index.html 12 U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Department of Homeland Security (n.d.). About SENTRI: Secure Electronic Network for Travelers Rapid Inspection." Retrieved November 16, 2010 from http://www.cbp.gov/travel/trusted-traveler-programs/sentri 13 Ojah, M. I., et al. (2002). Truck transportation through border points of entry: Analysis of coordination systems. College Station, TX: Texas Transportation Institute, The Texas A&M University System. Retrieved from http://www.borderplanning.fhwa.dot.gov/tocTTI.asp 14 United States DOT, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (2015, January 9). United States to expand trade opportunities with Mexico through safe cross-border trucking. Retrieved from https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/newsroom/united-states-expand-trade-opportunities-mexico-through-safe- cross-border-trucking 15 Wilson, C. E. (2011). Working together: Economic ties between the United States and México. Washington, DC: México Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. 16 U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs (n.d.). U.S. Visas: Border Crossing Card. Retrieved May 6, 2016 from https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/visit/border-crossing-card.html 17 Cal y Mayor y Asociados, S.C. (2010). Encuesta de opinión región noreste: Nuevo León y Tamaulipas. Commissioned by SCT to assess impact of violence in vehicle traffic levels in México’s northeast region. 18 Heinle, K., Ferreira, O. R., & Shirk, D. A. (2014, April). Drug violence in Mexico: Data and analysis through 2013. University of San Diego: Department of Political Science & International Relations. Retrieved from http://justiceinmexico.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/140415-dvm-2014-releasered1.pdf 19 CBP, Department of Homeland Security (2007). Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in Land and Sea Environments: Final programmatic environmental assessment. College Park, MD: Office of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration. 20 Bexar County (n.d.). Texas-Mexico Automotive Supercluster. Retrieved August 19, 2016 from http://www.txmxautomotive.com

Del Rio–Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 2-31 DRAFT V1

Chapter 3 SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

The demographic and economic status of a region has a significant impact on the usage of highways and toll facilities, and socioeconomic projections provide the basic inputs for travel demand modeling and developing T&R forecasts. This chapter provides an evaluation of historical and forecasted socioeconomic data within the Del Rio and Acuña regions. Specifically, the study area for this socioeconomic evaluation consisted of Val Verde County, TX on the U.S. side of the border, with an emphasis on Del Rio, and the state of Coahuila on the Mexican side of the border, with emphasis on Acuña. The analysis focused on factors that impact transportation activities and drive traffic demand within the area of the Project, particularly population, employment, median household income, and gross regional product (GRP). As part of its socioeconomic evaluation of the study area, C&M took the following steps:  Reviewed historical and forecasted socioeconomic data.  Determined countywide population and employment growth rates from 2015 to 2035.  Determined population and employment growth at the block-group level.  Prepared traffic analysis zone (TAZ)-level socioeconomic data for all future model years using available data. In addition to socioeconomic data received from Crossborder group, in the evaluation process, C&M considered publicly and privately available data from the following sources:  Texas State Data Center (TSDC)  U.S. Census Bureau  American Community Survey  Moody’s Analytics  Woods & Poole Economics (W&P)  Texas Water Development Board (TWDB)  Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)  Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)  Mexico's Industry: Maquiladora Program in Mexico (IMMEX)  Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)  The Desarrollo Económico de Ciudad Acuña, A.C. (DECA)

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 3-1 DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

3.1. Population

3.1.1. Historical Trends in Regional Population Population is a key factor for transportation modeling and network simulation. Table 3-1 summarizes the historical population trends for the study area on the U.S. side of the border, as obtained from the U.S. Census and Moody’s. Historically, Val Verde County’s population has grown at a slower rate compared to the state of Texas, and its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has steadily declined over the last 25 years. Between 2010 and 2014, Val Verde County’s population did not experience any increase. In contrast, the state of Texas exhibited a CAGR of 0.9 percent between 2010 and 2014, which was a noticeable decrease in growth compared to previous years. Moody’s historical estimates for Val Verde County’s population nearly replicate Census estimates, with a 1990–2014 CAGR of 1.0 percent.

Table 3-1. Historical Population Trends in U.S.

U.S. Census Moody's Year Val Verde CAGR Texas CAGR Val Verde CAGR 1990 38,721 - 16,986,335 - 38,562 - 1995 41,956 1.6% 18,958,751 2.2% 41,956 1.7% 2000 44,856 1.3% 20,851,028 1.9% 45,020 1.4% 2005 47,108 1.0% 22,778,123 1.8% 46,941 0.8% 2010 48,879 0.7% 25,145,561 2.0% 49,011 0.9% 2014 48,974 0.0% 26,092,033 0.9% 48,916 0.0% 1990-2014 1.0% 1.8% 1.0%

Table 3-2 depicts the historical population for the Acuña municipality area and the state of Coahuila, as obtained from INEGI. Compared to Val Verde County and the State of Texas, Acuña and Coahuila’s populations have grown at a faster rate from 1990 to 2010. This could be explained by the difference in birth rates and immigration to the border because of increased maquiladora employment, which is discussed later in this chapter.

Table 3-2. Historical Population Trends in Mexico Acuña Year CAGR Coahuila CAGR Municipality 1990 56,336 - 1,972,340 - 1995 81,602 7.7% 2,173,775 2.0% 2000 110,487 6.2% 2,298,070 1.1% 2005 126,238 2.7% 2,495,200 1.7% 2010 136,755 1.6% 2,748,391 2.0% 1990-2010 4.5% 1.7% Source: INEGI

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 3-2 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

3.1.2. Population at the TAZ Level Although countywide and statewide data are useful for understanding the general socioeconomic trends of the region, it is vital to perform analyses at a finer level of detail within the vicinity of the Project to develop the inputs necessary for modeling and forecasting purposes. To this end, C&M aggregated socioeconomic data to the TAZ level. The block group layer from the U.S. Census was aggregated to create the TAZ layer. While identifying the boundaries for the TAZs, C&M considered major and minor arterials, downtown block groups, boundaries of water bodies, external stations, and other factors that are relevant to the study area such as special generators. This process is further explained in Chapter 4. Figure 3-1 presents the population density (persons per acre) for Del Rio and Acuña TAZs. The population density of the TAZs for the Acuña area is higher than the Del Rio TAZs. Within the study area, most of the population is located near the existing POE and around the Central Business District (CBD). It is reasonable to assume that the observed population distribution would benefit greatly from the new POE, particularly aiding those who commute every day to and from Ciudad Acuña for work and school trips.

Figure 3-1. Population Density Map – 2014

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 3-3 DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

3.1.3. Population Projections C&M reviewed total population projections from Moody’s, W&P, the TSDC, the TWDB, and INEGI. W&P and Moody’s forecasts are presented in Table 3-3. Overall, these sources are roughly equivalent to each other, with projections indicating lower CAGRs than the observed historical growth for both Val Verde County and the State of Texas. Projections from W&P and Moody’s predict that Val Verde County will only experience growth of approximately 0.5 percent between 2015 and 2040, whereas Texas is predicted to have a CAGR of 1.5 percent.

Table 3-3. Population Projections – Val Verde and Texas W&P Moody's Year Val Verde Texas Val Verde Texas 2015 49,214 27,248,258 49,810 27,582,039 2020 50,895 29,468,993 51,378 30,016,740 2025 52,587 31,864,355 52,792 32,490,461 2030 54,233 34,412,844 54,231 35,005,000 2035 55,705 37,040,590 55,683 37,576,570 2040 56,955 39,713,212 57,119 40,115,352 2015–2025 CAGR 0.7% 1.6% 0.6% 1.7% 2025–2040 CAGR 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 1.4% 2015–2040 CAGR 0.6% 1.5% 0.5% 1.5%

To validate the forecasts developed by W&P and Moody’s, C&M compared them to population forecasts from the TSDC and TWDB, as shown in Table 3-4 and Figure 3-2. Population forecasts developed by the TSDC are categorized under three migration scenarios: scenario 0.0 assumes net migration to be zero (in-migration and out-migration are equal); scenario 1.0 assumes net migration rates of the period between 2000 and 2010; and scenario 0.5 is the average of scenario 0.0 and scenario 1.0. Migration scenario 0.5 was chosen since it represents an average net migration of population for the study area. TWDB forecasts were interpolated for intermediate years, as the forecasts are developed for 10-year intervals. Compared to W&P and Moody’s, these forecasts indicate higher growth rates. Whereas the former set of forecasts predicts an approximate CAGR of 0.6 percent between 2015 and 2040, these two sources expect Val Verde County’s population to exhibit a CAGR of 1.0 percent over the same period. This translates into a population of approximately 65,000 by 2040, as opposed to approximately 57,000 per W&P and Moody’s. The more conservative growth projections by Moody’s and W&P appear to be more in line with recent historical trends, as the historical growth between 2005 and 2014 was estimated by the U.S. Census and Moody’s to be close to 0.5 percent. Therefore, it was deemed reasonable to use W&P and Moody’s forecasts as the source of future population data.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 3-4 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

Table 3-4. Val Verde County Population Projections by Source Year TSDC 0.5 TWDB W&P Moody's 2015 51,690 51,847 49,214 49,810 2020 54,457 54,694 50,895 51,378 2025 57,156 57,542 52,587 52,792 2030 59,790 60,389 54,233 54,231 2035 62,273 63,146 55,705 55,683 2040 64,750 65,902 56,955 57,119 2015-2025 CAGR 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 2025-2040 CAGR 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 2015-2040 CAGR 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5%

Figure 3-2. Population Projections Comparison

Projections from INEGI for the Acuña municipality and the state of Coahuila indicate higher growth than the Del Rio area. As presented in Table 3-5, Coahuila and the Acuña municipality are expected to exhibit CAGRs of at least 1 percent between 2015 and 2030. The growth rate trends from INEGI shown in the table below were used in modeling Acuña’s future population growth.

Table 3-5. Population Projections – Acuña Municipality and Coahuila Year Acuña Coahuila 2015 146,161 2,960,681 2020 155,537 3,129,782 2025 164,988 3,286,369 2030 173,856 3,427,879 2015–2030 CAGR 1.2% 1.0%

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 3-5 DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

Using the base year demographics at the TAZ level, projections were increased based on historical trends, available projections from both public and private entities, recent commodity movements across the border, and historical border crossing traffic data. These TAZ-level demographic estimates were reviewed to ensure that the activity density (i.e., the relationship between population, employment, and area of a TAZ) did not exceed allowable limits. Population forecasts for Mexico TAZs were based on the INEGI forecasts, historical trends, border crossing data, and commodity import trends.

3.2. Employment Employment is another key socioeconomic factor to consider when estimating travel demand, particularly for the current study due to the impact of commuter traffic across the U.S.–Mexican border. From a transportation planning perspective, workplace-based employment in a region provides a better understanding of trip destinations.

3.2.1. Historical Trends in Regional Employment C&M evaluated the study area’s current job market and employment history by collecting and analyzing county and city data pertaining to employment and labor force size. Additional employment information was then gathered from local, state, and federal agencies, as well as from the BLS, LEHD, W&P, and Moody’s. When analyzing employment data from different sources, it is important to consider the definition of employment used by each source, since different definitions can result in large differences in both historical and future employment estimates. According to the BLS, “employment” is defined as a count of jobs, both full-time and part-time, including wage and salary jobs, sole proprietorships, and individual general partners, but not unpaid family workers nor volunteers. The BLS provides historical employment data going back to 1969. Figure 3-3 displays historical employment data in Val Verde County from 1969 to 2014.

Source: BLS Figure 3-3. Historical Combined Full-Time/Part-Time Employment – Val Verde County

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 3-6 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

Besides the BLS, W&P and Moody’s also provide employment data. Table 3-6 presents the total employment for Val Verde County and the state of Texas according to these three sources. Up to the year 2000, employment growth for these two regions is similar. After 2010, both W&P and Moody’s data show a decrease in employment opportunities in the Del Rio area, whereas the state of Texas continues to experience an increase in jobs. The difference between W&P and Moody’s estimates is primarily due to different definitions of employment. The employment data in W&P’s database is a measure of full-time and part-time jobs by place of work. According to Moody’s, employed persons are those who, during the reference week (the week including the 12th day of the month), (a) did any work as paid employees, worked in their own business or profession or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in an enterprise operated by a member of their family, or (b) were not working but who had jobs from which they were temporarily absent because of vacation, illness, bad weather, childcare problems, maternity or paternity leave, labor-management dispute job training, or other family or personal reasons, whether or not they were paid for the time off or were seeking other jobs. In short, Moody’s employment estimates are generally much lower than W&P because agricultural workers, the military, proprietors, households, and miscellaneous employment are not included.

Table 3-6. Historical Employment Trends by Source BLS W&P Moody's Year Val Verde CAGR Val Verde CAGR Texas CAGR Val Verde CAGR 1990 15,146 - 15,147 - 9,242,918 - 13,156 - 1995 17,426 2.8% 17,426 2.8% 10,439,876 2.5% 16,135 4.2% 2000 20,111 2.9% 20,131 2.9% 12,151,409 3.1% 16,270 0.2% 2005 23,312 3.0% 23,286 3.0% 13,012,288 1.4% 18,271 2.3% 2010 24,193 0.7% 24,148 0.7% 14,285,773 1.9% 18,704 0.5% 2014 23,872 -0.3% 23,938 -0.2% 15,828,493 2.6% 18,269 -0.6%

Although equivalent historical employment data is not available for Acuña, historical maquiladora employment data serves as an adequate proxy. Maquiladora employment is a particularly relevant indicator for this study due to the area’s dependency on this industrial segment and the proximity of these businesses to the proposed POE. As presented in Table 3-7, maquiladora employment in Acuña increased at high rates during the 1990s, followed by slight declines in the 2000s and returning to strong growth in the 2010s.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 3-7 DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

Table 3-7. Historical Maquiladora Employment Year Employment % Change Year Employment %Change 1990 14,290 - 2003 35,749 0% 1991 16,298 14% 2004 34,485 -4% 1992 18,621 14% 2005 32,628 -5% 1993 18,690 0% 2006 31,470 -4% 1994 19,277 3% 2007* 24,485 -22% 1995 21,429 11% 2008 20,349 -17% 1996 24,519 14% 2009 21,215 4% 1997 27,490 12% 2010 27,741 31% 1998 30,750 12% 2011 31,201 12% 1999 33,052 7% 2012 32,678 5% 2000 32,130 -3% 2013 36,349 11% 2001 32,980 3% 2014 39,273 8% 2002 35,680 8% 2015 41,145 5% Note: * Non-manufacturing data not available from 2007 Source: Crossborder Group

3.2.2. Employment at the TAZ Level Figure 3-4 illustrates the employment density of the study area for the year 2014 at the TAZ level. Results indicate that most of the employment centers in Del Rio are near and to the north of the downtown area, while Acuña exhibits a concentration of businesses and employment centers close to the existing POE. It is also important to note that industrial areas in Acuña are clustered on the eastern side of the proposed POE.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 3-8 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

Figure 3-4. Employment Density Map – 2014

3.2.3. Maquiladora Historical Trends Maquiladora production is one of the primary factors affecting truck border crossings on the Del Rio POE. As part of the Level 1 study completed in 2014, C&M interviewed Mr. José Flores, the Director of DECA, to better understand the historical growth observed within the study area, facilitate the data mining effort regarding maquiladora activity, and clarify future objectives and strategies.1 On November 1, 2006, the Mexican Federal Government published the Decree for the Promotion of the Manufacturing, Maquila and Export Service Industry (IMMEX Decree), aimed at increasing the competitiveness of the Mexican export sector and bringing certainty, transparency, and continuity to companies' operations; specifying and simplifying compliance factors; allowing companies to adopt new ways of operating and doing business; reducing logistics and administrative costs; and modernizing and streamlining procedures, thus increasing oversight capacity in an environment which encourages the capture and retention of investment.2 This instrument integrates the programs for the Development and Operation of the Maquila Export Industry and the Temporal Importation Program to Produce Articles for Exportation (PITEX).

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 3-9 DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

DECA has been lobbying companies and suppliers to move to Acuña to take advantage of the lower overhead cost, lower wages, and short crossing times across the Del Rio POE.1 DECA’s proximity to the Toyota plant in San Antonio makes the area very attractive, and they aim to attract maquiladoras interested in supplying Toyota. While no firm objectives have been set, DECA estimates that they could accommodate at least 75 new companies in the current industrial area, but their objective is to facilitate the establishment of as many new maquiladoras as possible. The total number of maquiladoras in Acuña has been nearly constant over the last 10 years, as shown in Table 3-8. Nevertheless, as Table 3-7 indicated, employment is increasing post-recession.

Table 3-8. Historical Maquiladora Growth in Acuña Number of Number of Year Year Maquiladoras Maquiladoras 1990 40 2003 50 1991 44 2004 48 1992 48 2005 47 1993 46 2006 47 1994 51 2007 46 1995 50 2008 46 1996 53 2009 44 1997 53 2010 43 1998 55 2011 43 1999 57 2012 45 2000 56 2013 46 2001 57 2014 46 2002 56 2015 45 Source: IMMEX

Figure 3-5 illustrates the number of maquiladoras in Acuña. Like population and employment, the largest concentration of maquiladoras is located near the proposed bridge, west of Acuña. It is important to note that trips ending at the airport and surrounding industrial areas in Del Rio could avoid the residential areas and downtown Del Rio by crossing the border using the proposed POE, and they would benefit from the more direct connection between the traffic production/attraction areas.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 3-10 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

Figure 3-5. Maquiladoras in Acuña

3.2.4. Employment Projections Employment projections for Val Verde County were based on growth rate trends obtained from W&P, as presented in Table 3-9 and illustrated in Figure 3-6. In general, the employment forecasts indicate that economic growth will continue in the study area from 2015 to 2040. Employment projections from W&P indicate a reduction in growth compared to historic trends. Historically, both Val Verde County and Texas have grown at a CAGR of 1.9 and 2.3 percent, respectively (between 1990 and 2014). However, both Val Verde County and Texas are expected to grow at a slower pace of 1.1 and 1.9 percent, respectively, between 2015 and 2025. Projections from Moody’s indicate a different trend compared to W&P. As mentioned earlier, this is primarily due to different definitions of employment adopted by these two sources. From 2015 to 2025, W&P estimates the employment growth rate to be 1.1 percent, while Moody’s predicts a growth rate of 0.2 percent. Both sources forecast that growth rates will decrease after 2025. Based on the projected growth rates for Del Rio and Texas from both sources, C&M used growth rates that are in between the forecasted trends from these two sources.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 3-11 DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

Table 3-9. Employment Projections W&P Moody's Year Val Verde Texas Val Verde 2015 24,231 16,155,163 18,293 2020 25,602 17,785,514 18,784 2025 26,921 19,476,307 18,743 2030 28,155 21,188,882 18,581 2035 29,285 22,914,028 18,668 2040 30,365 24,685,996 18,792 2015-2025 CAGR 1.1% 1.9% 0.2% 2015-2040 CAGR 0.9% 1.7% 0.1%

Figure 3-6. Employment Projections

Employment forecasts for the Acuña area are based on growth rates developed from the observed trends of historical maquiladora data, border crossing data, and commodity import trends and projected growth rates from other cities along the Texas–Mexico border.

3.3. Gross Regional Product Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its regional equivalent, Gross Regional Product (GRP), are widely seen as the most comprehensive measures of economic activity. An industry’s GRP, or its value added, is calculated as the sum of incomes earned by labor and capital and the costs incurred in the production of goods and services. According to the BEA, GRP is conceptually equivalent to GDP; the latter measures newly created value through production by resident production units (or residents in short) in the domestic economy, while for the former measures newly created value through production by regional production units (or regional residents in short) in the regional economy, be it a state, province, or district.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 3-12 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

3.3.1. Historical Trends in GRP GRP in principle can be measured by three approaches: the production approach, the final expenditure approach, and the income approach. As with defining employment, W&P and Moody’s have different approaches to defining GRP. According to W&P, all county-level and historical GRP data is estimated by allocating state GRP in a particular year to counties within the state based on the proportion of total state earnings of employees originating in a particular county. County GRP estimates are constrained to state totals, and all GRP data is establishment- based. Moody’s provides “Total Gross Product,” which is the total of:  NIPA1: Personal Consumption Expenditures - Total (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR2)  NIPA: Gross Private Investment (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR)  NIPA: Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR)  NIPA: Net Exports of Goods and Services (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR)  NIPA: Gross Domestic Product - Residual (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR) Consistent with a growing economy, Val Verde County’s GRP increased at a comparable rate experienced by the state of Texas between 1990 and 2010. Since 2010, the county has been growing at a slower rate than Texas. Overall, between 1990 and 2014, Val Verde County is estimated to have a CAGR of 3.7 percent, whereas Texas has exhibited a 4.0 percent CAGR. These estimates are shown in Table 3-10.

Table 3-10. Historical Gross Regional Product (M illions of 2009$) Gross Regional Product - W&P Total Gross Product - Moody's Year Val Verde CAGR Texas CAGR Val Verde CAGR 1990 $764 - $567,151 - $763 - 1995 $862 2.4% $671,162 3.4% $947 4.4% 2000 $1,070 4.4% $897,900 6.0% $1,283 6.3% 2005 $1,485 6.8% $1,081,814 3.8% $1,801 7.0% 2010 $1,724 3.0% $1,228,209 2.6% $1,990 2.0% 2014 $1,817 1.3% $1,467,021 4.5% $2,021 0.4%

1 NIPA: The national income and product accounts (NIPA) are part of the national accounts of the United States. They are produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.

2 SAAR: The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is the seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly value multiplied by 12, or the SA quarterly value multiplied by 4.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 3-13 DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

3.3.2. Gross Regional Product Projections Consistent with a growing economy, Val Verde County’s GRP is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.0 percent between 2015 and 2040. As shown in Table 3-11, estimates from W&P and Moody’s show similar growth rate forecasts.

Table 3-11. Gross Regional Product Projections (Millions of 2009$) Year W&P Moody's 2015 $1,842 $2,048 2020 $1,960 $2,076 2025 $2,073 $2,216 2030 $2,180 $2,362 2035 $2,278 $2,558 2040 $2,372 $2,787 2015-2025 CAGR 1.2% 0.8% 2015-2040 CAGR 1.0% 1.2%

3.4. Median Household Income Median household income which combines all income sources of the residents of a household and indicates the income distribution of a specific region, can serve as a useful input for travel demand modeling, as income plays an important role in travelers’ decisions regarding toll facilities by influencing their willingness to pay a toll.

3.4.1. Historical Trends in Regional Median Household Income Historically, median household income for the study area has been lower than that of the state of Texas. However, the median income for households in Val Verde County has been growing at a higher CAGR than Texas. As shown in Table 3-12, the median household income of Texas grew at a CAGR of 2.9 percent between 1989 and 2014, compared to 3.3 percent for Val Verde County.

Table 3-12. Historical Median Household Income (Nominal $) U.S. Census Moody's Year Val Verde CAGR Texas CAGR Val Verde CAGR 1989 $18,235 - $26,134 $18,042 - 1995 $22,133 3.3% $31,488 3.2% $23,423 4.4% 2000 $29,090 5.6% $39,090 4.4% $28,903 4.3% 2005 $31,375 1.5% $42,165 1.5% $31,496 1.7% 2010 $36,647 3.2% $48,622 2.9% $36,589 3.0% 2014 $41,437 3.1% $53,067 2.2% $39,893 2.2%

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 3-14 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

3.4.2. Median Household Income Projections Data pertaining to Val Verde County’s median household income forecast was obtained from Moody’s, as shown in Table 3-13. According to Moody’s projections, the median household income annual growth rate will gradually accelerate from 2015 to 2040, translating into a CAGR of 2.1 percent.

Table 3-13. Val Verde County Median Household Income Projections (Nominal $)

Year Income CAGR 2015 $41,748 - 2020 $45,300 1.6% 2025 $49,982 2.0% 2030 $55,836 2.2% 2035 $62,515 2.3% 2040 $70,178 2.3% Source: Moody’s

3.5. Building Permits The housing market is another economic factor commonly used to analyze the growth of a region. Building permits can be early indicators of activity in the housing market, suggesting changes in the regional economy. Two types of building permits are analyzed in this section: Buildings and Units. A Building or Zoning Permit is the approval given by a local jurisdiction to proceed on a construction project. A Housing Unit, as defined for the purposes of this dataset, is a house, apartment, group of rooms, or a single room intended for occupancy as a separate living quarters. In other words, each building permit includes one or more units. The Val Verde County building permits indicator from 2000 to 2015 is presented in Table 3-14 and Figure 3-7. New building permits have generally decreased over time, with a CAGR of -2.7 percent from 2000 to 2015, though they have exhibited positive growth rates in recent years, increasing to a CAGR of 6.2 percent from 2010 to 2015. Although this indicates that the housing market is recovering after the recession, the level of new permits issued has not yet reached pre- recession levels. Although the issuance of permits has not reached pre-recession levels, based on the recent growth in the new permits and projected population growth trends, C&M assumed that the population would continue to increase based on projected growth rates as mentioned earlier in this chapter.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 3-15 DRAFT V1 3. SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION & PROJECTIONS

Table 3-14. Val Verde County New Home Permits

Year Buildings CAGR Units CAGR 2000 119 - 127 - 2001 121 1.7% 133 4.7% 2002 123 1.7% 127 -4.5% 2003 120 -2.4% 142 11.8% 2004 128 6.7% 130 -8.5% 2005 150 17.2% 156 20.0% 2006 173 15.3% 283 81.4% 2007 185 6.9% 185 -34.6% 2008 89 -51.9% 89 -51.9% 2009 44 -50.6% 44 -50.6% 2010 32 -27.3% 38 -13.6% 2011 50 56.3% 53 39.5% 2012 30 -40.0% 77 45.3% 2013 45 50.0% 46 -40.3% 2014 57 26.7% 63 37.0% 2015 79 38.6% 79 25.4% 2000-2015 -2.7% -3.1% Source: U.S. Census

Source: U.S. Census Figure 3-7. Val Verde County Building Permits: 2000 to 2015

1 José L. Flores, Director of Desarrollo Económico de Ciudad Acuña, A.C. (2014, March 4). Personal Interview. 2 INEGI (n.d.). Programa de la industria manufacturera, maquiladora y de servicios de exportación (IMMEX): 2007 en adelante. Retrieved from http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/proyectos/registros /economicas/manufacturera/default.aspx

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 3-16 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 Chapter 4 MODELING APPROACH

Developing a Level 2 T&R forecast requires the use of a reliable travel demand model (TDM) to replicate actual travel patterns and existing traffic demand conditions. The modeling process begins with developing a roadway network using current data for each roadway within the modeled transportation system. Travel demand on the network is generated using socioeconomic data as input. After a number of modeling steps, traffic volume on each network link is estimated. Key model parameters are evaluated and calibrated to adequately replicate actual travel patterns and traffic volumes on the roadways. Once calibrated to existing conditions, the TDM is used to forecast future travel demand and the resulting traffic on network links. Future-year traffic projections are based on numerous assumptions regarding changes in population, number of households, employment, income, automobile ownership and their operating costs, and other factors likely to evolve over time. The purpose of the TDM in the present study is to model future traffic (cars and trucks) for all the major and minor roadways within the study area—including the distribution between the existing and proposed international bridges—while replicating existing travel conditions in base year 2014. Since there was no existing TDM for the study area, C&M developed its own complete, traditional four-step TDM focusing on the Del Rio and Acuña areas: the C&M Del Rio-Acuña TDM (CMDATDM). C&M utilized TransCAD as a platform for developing this model. Besides the prepackaged travel demand forecasting applications, its stand-alone programming capabilities allowed the project team to develop programs that were used to produce traffic estimates. A “generalized cost” methodology was adopted and implemented within the calibrated TDM to model future diversion to the proposed bridge. The economy in the Project’s area of influence is impacted by the manufacturing and trade of goods across the border between the United States and Mexico. Thus, truck traffic is a significant and important part of daily vehicular movements in the region. Locations of interest in the study area include several industrial parks, which are served by continuous truck traffic to and from the U.S.–Mexico border and along the highways that connect to major hubs. For this reason, throughout the modeling process, special treatment was considered for truck movement within the study area. The CMDATDM model accounts for truck traffic with a separate truck trip table to replicate the representation of truck volumes within the transportation network. This chapter describes the process of developing the CMDATDM, including the adoption of socioeconomic data, defining project-relevant traffic analysis zones (TAZs), accounting for updated network information, accounting for truck traffic movements, and implementing knowledge pertaining to external trip tables.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 4-1 DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

4.1. Travel Demand Model Development

4.1.1. Traffic Analysis Zones As illustrated in Figure 4-1, the modeling area of the CMDATDM covers most of Val Verde County and the Acuña municipality. The inclusion of these areas is critical to this study since the Project’s expected traffic will be influenced by demographic and economic characteristics on both sides of the border. In addition, including the Acuña area aids in analyzing long-distance truck traffic that services maquiladoras beyond the Acuña region in Monclova, Torreon, and Monterrey.

Figure 4-1. CMDATDM Modeling Area

Initial zonal layers were obtained from the U.S Census and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Blocks and block group layers from the U.S. Census and manzanas/agebs (similar to blocks/block groups) data from INEGI were used to develop the TAZ layers. Blocks and block groups on each side of the border were combined and modified where necessary to develop each TAZ. The model’s coverage comprises 251 TAZs in Del Rio, of which 8 are external zones, and 267 TAZs in Acuña, of which 9 are external zones. All external zones are shown in Figure 4-1 (border crossing stations including the Proposed POE were considered as external stations). Each major highway that crosses the modeling area boundary is represented by one external zone. Thus, the 17 external zones represent “gateway roads” to and from the modeling area.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 4-2 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

Figure 4-2 and Figure 4-3 show the zonal structures used in the CMDATDM for the Del Rio and Acuña area TAZs, respectively. The TAZ structure was kept the same for all base year and future year analyses.

Figure 4-2. CMDATDM Traffic Analysis Zones – Del Rio

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 4-3 DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

Figure 4-3. CMDATDM Traffic Analysis Zones – Acuña

Geographic areas in the CMDATDM were categorized in accordance to their land use, as shown in Table 4-1. Four area types were assumed for the Del Rio modeling area, whereas three area types were assumed for the Acuña modeling area, excluding the “suburban residential” category.

Table 4-1. Area Type Classifications by Region Description Area Type Del Rio Acuña 1 Outer Business District Outer Business District 2 Urban Residential Urban Residential 3 Suburban Residential Rural 4 Rural -

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 4-4 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

4.1.2. Socioeconomic Information Population and household data for the Del Rio TAZs were obtained from the 2010 U.S. Census. Employment data was obtained from the 2013 Longitudinal Household Dynamics dataset. Median household income data was available at the block group level from the 2014 American Community Survey and was assigned to TAZs based on the proximity of the TAZs to each block group. For the Acuña area, data regarding population, households, and active employees based on households (corresponding to Home-Based Work trips) was obtained from INEGI. Employment categories were estimated based on additional data available from INEGI describing the distribution of basic, industrial, retail, and service sectors. Information from different sources such as INEGI, Crossborder Group, and other publicly available databases were then consolidated to create the demographic dataset that encompasses the entire modeling area.

4.1.3. Modeling Base and Future Years The accumulated socioeconomic information, which represented different years, was normalized to the base year of 2014 using recent historical growth rates for each variable included in the model. The CMDATDM includes future model years 2020 (the opening year of the Project) and 2035. Socioeconomic information for future years was developed by increasing the base year demographics based on historical trends, available projections, commodity movements across the border, and historical border traffic data. TAZ-level demographics were reviewed to ensure that the activity density (i.e., the relationship between population, employment, and area of a TAZ) did not exceed allowable limits.

4.1.4. Network Development This section outlines the process undertaken by C&M to update the 2014 base year model network and the future roadway networks within the modeling area. The CMDATDM was calibrated to existing traffic conditions within the area and subsequently used in the development of future year models for 2020 and 2035. Base Year Network. C&M developed a base year network using available roadway layers from OpenStreetMap.1 This network was available with capacity and speed information already coded into the roadway network. C&M implemented a series of modifications and adjustments to the structure of the network to reflect the current conditions and to better serve the specific purposes of this study. These changes vary from updating the geographical representation of the networks (i.e., links and nodes) to modifying attributes (e.g., speed limit, number of lanes). Number of lanes and speed limits were also compared to aerial images and Google street view maps for validation purposes. Other major sources for the network update include the plans developed by the City of Del Rio (the Del Rio Comprehensive Master Plan)2 and the Acuña Municipality (the Programa Nacional de Infraestructura 2014-2018),3 supplemented by other publicly-available satellite images, with a specific focus on the study area.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 4-5 DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

The CMDATDM roadway links have six functional classes—including centroid connectors—based on their individual functions within the transportation network. Every functional class has a particular hourly capacity per lane depending on the type of area in which the roadway link is located. Table 4-2 and Table 4-3 present hourly capacities per lane for each functional class in the Del Rio and Acuña modeling areas, respectively (centroid connectors are not shown in the tables since they are not limited by hourly capacities). Figure 4-4 and Figure 4-5 depict the functional classes of the CMDATDM base year roadway network in the Del Rio and Acuña modeling areas, respectively.

Table 4-2. Hourly Capacity – Del Rio Capacity Per Hour Per Lane Outer Functional Class Urban Suburban Business Rural Residential Residential District Highway 1,700 1,600 1,600 1,600 Major Arterials 800 800 800 700 Minor Arterials 700 600 600 500 Collectors/Local 600 500 500 400 Ramps 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

Table 4-3. Hourly Capacity – Acuña Capacity Per Hour Per Lane Outer Functional Class Urban Business Rural Residential District Highway 1,500 1,500 1,500 Major Arterials 900 900 900 Minor Arterials 800 700 700 Collectors/Local 500 500 400 Ramps 1,000 1,000 1,000

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 4-6 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

Figure 4-4. CMDATDM Base Year Roadway Network – Del Rio

Figure 4-5. CMDATDM Base Year Roadway Network – Acuña

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 4-7 DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

The shape of the volume delay function (VDF) used for the CMDATDM is presented in Figure 4-6 by functional class, using different speeds for different road types: 70 mph for highways, 40 mph for major arterials, and 30 mph for minor arterials. The CMDATDM VDF function is based on the Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) function with default values for Alpha (0.15) and Beta (4). This figure shows that different free-flow speeds and capacities result in varying congested speeds.

Figure 4-6. CMDATDM Volume Delay Function

Future Year Networks. C&M developed roadway networks for 2020 (opening year) and 2035. In addition to the proposed bridge, roadway alignments connecting the bridge to major roads on both sides of the border were also coded for these two networks. In Del Rio, the bridge will connect to US 90 just west of the interchange at US 90/US 377. In Acuña, the bridge is expected to connect to MEX2, near the industrial parks. The Del Rio Comprehensive Master Plan and the Programa Nacional De Infraestructura 2014–2018 were reviewed to check for any planned improvements in the study area. Since there are no improvements already planned, future year networks were assumed to be the same as the base year, with the exception of the proposed bridge and its connecting roadways to MEX2 in Acuña and US 90 in Del Rio. The alignments connecting to the bridge were coded based on the information provided by S&B. Roadway characteristics corresponding to the Major Arterials class were assigned to these connecting roads. It was assumed that the connecting road will have two lanes in each direction and the proposed bridge will have lane configuration similar to the existing international bridge.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 4-8 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

4.2. Four-Step Travel Demand Modeling As mentioned earlier, TDMs are developed to replicate travel patterns and traffic demand conditions. After estimating the traffic volume on each network link, key model parameters are evaluated and calibrated to adequately replicate existing travel patterns and traffic volumes on the roadways. Traffic forecasting, on the other hand, begins with the collection of traffic data together with socioeconomic data. Feeding future socioeconomic estimates into the model determines traffic projections for the study area. To forecast future demand for the proposed bridge, C&M employed the approach of a conventional four-step TDM, which includes Trip Generation, Trip Distribution, Mode Choice, and Traffic Assignment steps. The following sections describe these steps in more detail.

4.2.1. Trip Generation Trip generation is the first step in the conventional four-step travel demand modeling process. The trip generation process estimates the productions and attractions for each trip purpose. Trip production represents the number of trips originating in each TAZ, and trip attraction represents the number of trips ending in each TAZ. C&M estimated trip productions and attractions using the cross-classification method, which separates an urban area population into relatively homogenous groups based on certain socioeconomic characteristics. Average trip production rates per household are then empirically estimated for each classification. For the Del Rio area, C&M employed default trip rates per the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 365.4 For Acuña, trip production rates were summarized based on available household survey data for the different areas in Mexico. Trip rates for different regions were compared, and relevant rates—based on the population of the Acuña area—were chosen for the analysis. The following independent variables were used in the model: Trip Production:  Population  Number of households  Median household income Trip Attraction:  Number of households  Basic, retail, and service employment  Area type  Special generators Socioeconomic data corresponding to the modeling areas for Del Rio and Acuña were used as input to the trip generation module. C&M prepared trip productions and attractions for the following trip purposes: Home-Based Work (HBW), Home-Based Non-Work (HNW), Non-Home- Based (NHB), and Internal Trucks (Trucks).

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 4-9 DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

The 2014 model trip productions and attractions were evaluated at the Census tract level with the production rates obtained from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). Person trip rates for each TAZ were compared and adjusted, if necessary, to match trip rates obtained from the NHTS survey data. The model’s distribution of person trips by trip purpose was within the range of various publicly available travel surveys, as presented in Table 4-4.

Table 4-4. Trip Share by Purpose – CMDATDM vs. Various Sources CMDATDM Houston DFW Denver Atlanta Trip 1984 Travel 1985 Travel 1980 Travel Purpose 2014 Model 1985 Model Survey Survey Survey HBW 21% 18% 27% 26% 18% HBNW 58% 51% 48% 47% 54% NHB 21% 31% 25% 27% 28%

Within the trip generation step, C&M incorporated a special generator for Laughlin Airforce Base. The generated trips are based on trips estimated by the Texas Statewide Analytical Model (SAM). Other special generators from existing models for the region, such as the Texas SAM, were reviewed and added to the CMDATDM when necessary. Internal Truck Trip Generation. The internal truck trips were generated with guidance from the Quick Response Freight Manual,5 along with the additional trips generated by the implemented special generators. Within the calibration process, the final CMDATDM trip rates were adjusted to reproduce the overall truck volumes observed from real-world traffic counts. External Auto and Truck Trips. The CMDATDM has 14 external stations. The external trip volumes for autos and trucks are based on a variety of current and historical data sources:  TxDOT AADT maps  TxDOT truck AADT flow-band maps  Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) border-crossing data  FOA Study The future growth rates of every external station were determined by applying several different time series forecast methodologies, including the use of the following parameters:  Historical traffic growth rate at each external station  Historical and projected growth rates from socioeconomic parameters such as population, employment, and maquiladora industry production  Historical and projected growth of manufactured goods shipments  Historical and projected GRP growth

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 4-10 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

Destinations for external stations were based on socioeconomic conditions on either side of the border. Traffic—both commercial vehicles (CVs) and passenger vehicles (PVs)—at existing and proposed border crossings was estimated based on econometric models (see Chapter 5). Forecasts for the Lake Amistad Dam crossing were estimated based on historical trends.

4.2.2. Trip Distribution Trip distribution is the second component of a four-step TDM. After estimating the total number of trip productions and attractions, the trip distribution step determines the number of trips between each pair of TAZs. C&M used gravity models specific to each trip purpose to determine trip distribution. The trips between each pair of TAZs are a function of trip production in the TAZ of origin, trip attraction in the destination TAZ, and the travel impedance between them. The CMDATDM employed a negative exponential function as a travel impedance function to estimate trip exchange by trip purpose between two given TAZs. These friction factors are presented in Figure 4-7. Friction factors were estimated using different Gamma values for Del Rio and Acuña, based on TDMs for areas similar to the study area. C&M used generalized travel costs as measures of impedance. The parameters in this function were different for each trip purpose. The parameters were initially based on NCHRP 365 and then adjusted within the model calibration process—based on other border studies and relevant data— to bring the model volumes more in line with observed traffic counts.

Figure 4-7. Friction Factors by Trip Purpose

Table 4-5 presents the trip length for each trip purpose within the Del Rio modeling area. Trip lengths for all purposes are between 3.5–4.0 miles and between 6.5–7.0 minutes. These values are reasonable for a small urban area like Del Rio.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 4-11 DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

Table 4-5. Average Trip Length by Purpose Trip Purpose Length (mi) Duration (min) HBW 3.7 6.8 HBNW 3.6 6.7 NHB 3.8 6.9

To validate the results of the trip distribution step, trip length information was obtained from the Texas SAM, as summarized in Table 4-6. These figures are the modeled average trip length corresponding to different urban areas (based on population) within Texas. Considering the population of the urban areas in the Texas SAM and comparing Table 4-5 with Table 4-6, it can be concluded that the CMDATDM’s average trip lengths are reasonable. Frequency distributions of the CMDATDM’s trip lengths by trip purpose are presented in Figure 4-8.

Table 4-6. Urban Model Trip Length (minutes) Trip Purpose HBW HBNW NHB Small Urban Average 10.0 6.9 7.4 Large Urban Average 23.0 12.2 16.0 All Cities Weighted Average 20.3 11.1 14.2 Source: Texas SAM

Figure 4-8. Frequency Distribution of Trip Length by Purpose

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 4-12 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

4.2.3. Mode Choice Mode choice analysis is the third step in a conventional four-step TDM. Mode choice analysis allows the model to determine what mode of transport will be chosen by network users. The city of Del Rio does not have a regular transit service available to the public. Instead, the transit service provided by the city is limited and provided on an on-demand basis available by appointment.6 Based on the 2009–2013 American Community Survey, approximately 0.3 percent of workers in Val Verde County use public transit as a means of transportation to work. In other words, the share of public transportation in the study area is very low. Although these transit shares may vary slightly for other trip purposes, the low share from survey data indicates that the development of a Transit Sub-Model for this study is not warranted. External Trips. External trips were estimated based on available traffic counts at locations considered external to the model network, as obtained from TxDOT’s AADT maps and border crossings statistics.7,8 The extracted data were incorporated in the development of the CMDATDM. In addition to estimating the number of external trips, where applicable, these sources were used to determine the origin-destination (OD) of the trips. The outcome of this analysis was two sets of aggregated (at the city level) PV and CV trip tables, including external-to-external and external- to-internal trips. Figure 4-9 and Figure 4-10 depict the locations of the external stations in Del Rio and Acuña, respectively.

Figure 4-9. CMDATDM External Stations – Del Rio

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 4-13 DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

Figure 4-10. CMDATDM E xternal Stations – Acuña

4.2.4. Traffic Assignment Traffic assignment is the final component of the four-step travel demand modeling process, determining which routes will be used by travelers within a variety of transportation networks. The CMDATDM was first calibrated to daily traffic conditions for traffic counts and travel time. Since time-of-day (TOD) traffic counts were not available, calibration was performed at the daily level. Link volumes were determined within the traffic assignment iterative process using VDFs developed by the BPR. Finally, several iterations were performed in which the network-loaded travel times from traffic assignment were fed back into trip distribution; the change in model volumes was checked between iterations to ensure a reasonable overall convergence within the final assigned volumes. As the available traffic count data was at daily level, and considering the size of the study area, a TOD model was not developed for this study.

4.3. Model Calibration and Validation All components of the TDM such as the TAZ layer, roadway layer, and socioeconomic inputs were developed separately for the Del Rio and Acuña areas. Trip generation and trip distribution were performed separately for Del Rio and Acuña areas. After these two steps were completed and the final trip tables were created, the two models were combined into one homogenous study area model capable of assigning trips from one side of the border to the other.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 4-14 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

The combined base year model was calibrated with the aim of matching modeled traffic conditions with observed daily traffic counts while replicating traffic congestion conditions. Since detailed traffic count collection was not performed for this study, most of the counts used were gathered from available public sources, as described in Chapter 2. Traffic count locations chosen for model calibration represent both highways and local streets, comprising locations in and around downtown Del Rio, near external stations (reflecting the traffic flows into and out of the study area), close to the border crossings, and locations that represent major destinations within the Del Rio area. For the Acuña area, a few count locations were available from annual AADT maps.9 These individual count locations are spread throughout the study area (for detailed information about traffic count locations, see Chapter 2). As mentioned earlier, C&M calibrated and validated the model using 2014 socioeconomic data, roadway network data, TxDOT’s 2014 AADTs, and truck counts from TxDOT’s truck flow-band maps. The AADT count locations chosen for model calibration are illustrated in Figure 4-11.

Figure 4-11. AADT Count Locations

Following the traffic assignment, modeled link volumes for each count location were used to validate the results of the traffic assignment step at the daily level. Table 4-7 compares the daily model volumes with AADT data for each location. The daily differences between the counts and modeled volumes fall within the acceptable range recommended by the FHWA and the Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual.10,11

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 4-15 DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

Table 4-7. Daily Traffic Comparison: Model Estimates vs. AADT Daily Volumes Location Description % Diff Observed Model Del Rio Int'l Bridge Border POE 7,950 8,100 2% Lake Amistad Dam Border POE 375 375 0% US 377/US 277 South of SH 79 1,300 1,225 -6% US 377/US 277 South LAFB Entrance 2,825 2,850 1% US 90 North of SH 79 6,600 6,850 4% US 90 West of FM 2523 16,200 16,900 4% US 90 East of FM 2523 11,800 12,300 4% US 90 East of SH 79 8,600 9,400 9% Veterans Blvd. South of US 90/US 377 7,675 7,500 -2% Veterans Blvd. South of Mary Lou Dr. 23,850 24,425 2% Veterans Blvd. North of Gibbs St. 17,000 17,175 1% D Gibbs St. Gibbs St. West of Veterans Blvd. 15,500 15,100 -3% e Gibbs St. West of Bedell Ave. 14,000 13,825 -1% l Gibbs St. East of Bedell Ave. 18,550 19,950 8% Margarita Ave. Margarita Ave. South of Ogden St. 15,775 14,800 -6% R Bus. 277 At Holmig St. 3,475 3,300 -5% i Bus. 277 West of Veterans Blvd. 10,300 9,775 -5% o US 90 East of LAFB 3,725 3,800 2% SL 239/ US 277B At US 277 BUS/SL 239 8,425 8,900 6% US 90 North of LAFB 4,325 4,500 4% US 90 At US 90/SH 79 5,950 5,750 -3% US 377 North Val Verde County 1,550 1,500 -3% US 90 North Val Verde County 1,800 1,825 1% US 90 At US 90/Spur 349 2,000 1,875 -6% US 90 North of Spur 349 1,925 1,825 -5% Cantu Rd. West of Veterans Blvd. 9,575 8,725 -9% Wildcat Dr. South of Cantu Rd. 6,000 5,850 -3% Bedell Ave. South of 12th St. 17,475 16,725 -4% Dodson Ave. North of Braddie Rd. 2,700 2,500 -7% MEX2 Location 1 Cd. Acuña 18,600 17,025 -8% MEX2 Location 2 T. Izq. Santa Eulalia 5,500 5,025 -9% A Libramiento Oriente Entre Galeana Oriente y Francisco I. Madero 3,100 3,175 2% c Francisco I. Madero Entre José Ma. Morelos y Nicolás Bravo 4,600 4,625 1% u Nicolás Bravo Entre Galeana Oriente y Francisco I. Madero 4,800 4,550 -5% ñ a MEX29 Location 1 T. Der. Piedras Negras 10,425 10,500 1% MEX29 Location 2 Cd. Acuña 12,525 11,650 -7% MEX2 Location 4 T. C. Morelos - Cd. Acuña 3,000 3,050 2%

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 4-16 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

Figure 4-12 illustrates the NCHRP criteria for count calibration. As shown, all count locations are well below the NCHRP’s deviation threshold.

Figure 4-12. Model Estimates vs. Maximum Desirable Deviation

Table 4-8 summarizes the results of the travel time comparison using Google’s database. The routes selected for this comparison are shown in Figure 4-13. Comparing the observed data to the base year 2014 model network performance indicates that the model produces travel time estimates that are very close to the measured daily travel times.

Figure 4-13. Google Database Travel Time Routes

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 4-17 DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

Table 4-8. Daily Travel Time Comparison: Model Estimates vs. Google Database Daily Travel Time (min) Length Route # and Location Direction From To % (mi) Observed Modeled Diff.

EB Spur 349 SH 79 Loop 6.2 5.9 5.4 -7.8% 1 US 90 W WB SH 79 Loop Spur 349 6.2 5.8 5.4 -6.6%

EB Del Rio Int'l Border SH 79 Loop / US 90 7.6 12.5 11.7 -6.5% E Gibbs St. / 2 State Loop 239 D WB SH 79 Loop / US 90 Del Rio Int'l Border 7.5 12.5 11.7 -6.2% e Veterans l EB Braddie Dr. US 277 6.9 12.3 13.1 6.6% Blvd., Bedell 3 Ave. & R WB US 277 Braddie Dr. 6.9 12.0 11.4 -5.2% Calderon Blvd. i o EB US 90 / SH 79 Loop US 90 / Gibbs St. 2.7 2.6 2.5 -2.7% 4 SH 79 Loop WB US 90 / Gibbs St. US 90 / SH 79 Loop 2.8 2.7 2.5 -6.3%

Calderon Blvd. / EB US 90 / Gibbs St. 9.0 7.9 7.4 -6.3% SH 79 Loop 5 SH 79 Loop Calderon Blvd. / WB US 90 / Gibbs St. 9.0 7.9 7.4 -6.5% SH 79 Loop Carr Presa de la SB Av Sur Pte 1.5 3.6 3.7 4.6% Calle Av. Sta. Amistad (MEX2) 1 Teresa Carr Presa de la NB Av Sur Pte 1.5 3.7 3.6 -0.6% Amistad (MEX2) Calle Av. Sta Lib. Jose de EB Calle V. Guerrero 2.7 8.1 8.8 8.8% Teresa 2 Las Fuentes Calle Av. Sta (MEX29) WB Calle V. Guerrero 2.7 8.8 9.3 5.1% A Teresa Carr Presa de la c Emiliano EB Calle Prisma 1.6 7.9 7.8 -1.4% Amistad (MEX2) u 3 Zapata Carr Presa de la ñ (Blvd/Calle) WB Calle Prisma 1.5 7.6 7.8 2.6% Amistad (MEX2) a Calle A. Lopez Carr. Presa la EB Calle Amistad 4.1 11.8 11.3 -4.2% Mateos 4 Amistad Calle A. Lopez (MEX2) WB Calle Amistad 4.1 11.0 11.6 5.1% Mateos Agustin de Inicio Carr. Blvd. Vicente EB 4.0 10.6 10.1 -4.4% Iturbide Morelos-Cd Acuna 5 Guerrero Inicio Carr. Agustin de (MEX29) WB 4.0 10.1 9.9 -2.0% Morelos-Cd Acuna Iturbide

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 4-18 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 4. MODELING APPROACH

1 https://www.openstreetmap.org/ 2 City of Del Rio, Texas (n.d.) Comprehensive master plan. Retrieved from http://www.cityofdelrio.com/673/Comprehensive-Master-Plan 3 Gobierno de la Republica de Mexico (n.d.). Programa nacional de infraestructura 2014-2018. Retrieved from http://presidencia.gob.mx/pni/consulta.php?c=1 4 Transportation Research Board, National Research Council (1998). National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 365: Travel estimation techniques for urban planning. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Retrieved from http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp_rpt_365.pdf 5 Alliance Transportation Group, Inc., and Cambridge Systematics, Inc. (2011). Statewide analysis model (second version): Freights model. Austin, TX: Texas Department of Transportation. 6 City of Del Rio, Texas (n.d.) Transportation. Retrieved from http://www.cityofdelrio.com/index.aspx?nid=431 7 Texas Department of Transportation (n.d.). Transportation planning maps. Retrieved from http://www.txdot.gov/inside-txdot/division/transportation-planning/maps.html 8 Bureau of Transportation Statistics (n.d.). Border Crossing/Entry Data. Retrieved from: https://transborder.bts.gov/programs/international/transborder/TBDR_BC/TBDR_BCQ.html 9 Secretaria de Comunicaciones y Transportes (2015, Dec. 9). Dirección general de servicios técnicos: Datos viales. Retrieved from: http://www.sct.gob.mx/carreteras/direccion-general-de-servicios- tecnicos/datos-viales/ 10 Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (1990). Calibration and adjustment of system planning models. Washington, DC: National Transportation Library. Retrieved from http://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/377CAS.html 11 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. (2010). Travel model validation and reasonableness checking manual (2nd ed.). Retrieved from https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/tmip/publications/other_reports /validation_and_reasonableness_2010/fhwahep10042.pdf

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 4-19 DRAFT V1

Chapter 5 TRAFFIC & REVENUE FORECAST

The following chapter presents the methodology and results of the econometric model developed to predict border crossings in the study area, followed by the Level 2 traffic & revenue (T&R) forecast for the Project over a 30-year period. C&M first developed a detailed econometric model taking into consideration the characteristics of both Del Rio and Acuña, including population, employment, and other relevant socioeconomic indicators. This model was used to predict traffic—personal vehicles (PVs) and commercial vehicles (CVs)—on both the current Del Rio POE bridge and the proposed POE bridge. Once the border crossings were estimated, C&M’s travel demand model—the CMDATDM—was used to estimate the traffic using each bridge based on travel time savings provided for different origins and destinations between Del Rio and Acuña. After the travel forecast for the Project was estimated for a typical working day, C&M incorporated this information into its post-processing model designed to forecast T&R on an annual basis. To cover the entire 30-year forecast period, transactions were interpolated between the model years 2020 and 2035 and extrapolated after 2035. C&M’s T&R analysis was conducted with the assumption that access to the proposed POE will be designed with proper geometric configuration and traffic control to ensure that traffic approaching the border is not negatively affected. C&M also incorporated the results of its traffic data analysis and utilized a series of assumptions regarding toll system implementation and enforcement based on experience with existing border bridges. These and other assumptions used in the development of the post-processing model are discussed in Section 5.6.

5.1. Econometric Model Methodology C&M developed and tested several econometric models for both PVs and CVs to determine the travel demand across the existing Del Rio bridge, utilizing various initial conditions to provide a wide range of demand curves. C&M produced crossing demand consisting of forecasts using time series analysis—specifically, linear regression time series models—and exogenous explanatory variables. The following section describes the data used and the methodology followed. C&M collected, reviewed and summarized several demographic and economic indicators related to Val Verde County, the San Antonio Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), the state of Texas, the Acuña municipality, the state of Coahuila, and the border region, as well as other relevant information—from various sources—that could potentially impact border traffic. The following is a list of the variables considered in this methodology and their respective sources: Val Verde County  Population, 1991–2015 (U.S. Census)  Employment, 1991–2014 (Bureau of Economic Analysis [BEA])

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 5-1 DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

 Personal income, 1991–2014 (BEA)  Per-capita income, 1991–2014 (BEA)  Population, 1969–2015 (W&P)  Total employment, 1969–2015 (W&P)  Farming employment, 1969–2015 (W&P)  Manufacturing employment, 1969–2015 (W&P)  Retail employment, 1969–2015 (W&P)  Federal/military employment, 1969–2015 (W&P)  Transportation/warehouse employment, 1969–2015 (W&P)  Federal/civil employment, 1969–2015 (W&P)  State/local employment, 1969–2015 (W&P)  GRP (in 2009 dollars), 1969–2015 (W&P)  Personal income (in 2009 dollars), 1969–2015 (W&P)  Households, 1969–2015 (W&P)  Retail sales (in 2009 dollars), 1969–2015 (W&P)  San Felipe Del Rio Independent School District (ISD) Size, 1995–2015 (Texas Board of Education)  AADT, 1969–2014 (TxDOT) San Antonio MSA  Manufacturing employment, 1969–2015 (W&P)  Transportation/warehouse employment, 1969–2015 (W&P)  GRP (in 2009 dollars), 1969–2015 (W&P)  Toyota manufacturing plant production, 2007–20151,2 The State of Texas  GDP (in 2009 dollars), 1969–2015 (W&P) Acuña Municipality  Population, 1990–2010 (Census)  Maquiladora employment, 2007–2015 (CrossBorder)  Number of maquiladoras, 2007–2015 (CrossBorder)  Acuña vehicle ownership, 1995–2014 (CrossBorder)

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 5-2 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

The State of Coahuila  Population, 1990–2010 (Census) Border Data  Commodity Exports and Imports between Del Rio and Mexico (in tones and dollars), 1995– 2015 (BTS)  Existing POE PV and CV toll rates, 1991–2015 (City of Del Rio)  Northbound PV/CV crossings and southbound PV crossings, 1995–2015 (City of Del Rio; Texas A&M International University; CBP Laredo Field Office)  Southbound CV crossings, 2007–2015 (City of Del Rio) Other  Gas prices (in 2009 dollars), 1969–2015 (U.S. Department of Energy)  U.S./Mexico currency exchange rate, 1969–2015 (U.S. Federal Reserve; Banco de Mexico) The above variables were tested to determine their explanatory power regarding the dependent variables: southbound PV and CV crossings. Although most data sources were available historically from 1995 onwards, some data—such as maquiladoras, employment through maquiladoras, manufacturing employment from the Toyota plant in San Antonio, and southbound CV crossings—were available only from 2007 (the number of maquiladoras and related employment data were available before 2007, but were not used in this analysis since data before 2007 comprised both manufacturing and non-manufacturing measures, whereas data from 2007 onward did not include non-manufacturing measures). Several dummy variables were also tested to account for the impact of events and policy changes that are beyond the border region. Since each tested variable measures a different quantity (e.g., people, dollars, jobs, etc.), all values were indexed to the year 2007 and normalized to a natural log scale before being used in the econometric models. Figure 5-1 illustrates historical population trends in Val Verde County and the Acuña municipality, indexed to 2007. While the population of Del Rio increased steadily between 2007 and 2010, population growth in Del Rio has been flat over the last five-year period, while Acuña’s population has increased at a higher rate during the same period. Figure 5-2 presents historical employment trends for Val Verde County and maquiladoras in Acuña. These employment measures all exhibited decreases after 2007 due to the recession. While the maquiladora industry has been adding jobs at a fast pace since 2009, job growth in retail and transportation industries has been flat over the last few years.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 5-3 DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

Figure 5-1. Historical Trends in Population

Figure 5-2. Historical Trends in Employment

Figure 5-3 presents several economic indicators—GRP, retail sales for the Del Rio area, and gas prices—along with the southbound PV and CV toll rates for crossing the existing POE. All values were converted to 2009 dollars before fitting the model. As shown, GRP and retail sales have increased steadily over the last few years, while prices experienced a significant decrease in 2015. Meanwhile, toll rates for PVs and CVs have increased significantly since 2014. The decrease in toll rates observed in earlier years represents a period during which tolls remained flat but were brought down due to inflationary adjustments to 2009 dollars.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 5-4 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

Figure 5-3. Historical Trends in Economic Indicators

Figure 5-4 illustrates historical trends in southbound PV and CV border crossings in the Del Rio/Acuña area. Southbound PV crossings were at their lowest in 2011. Since 2013, southbound PV crossings have increased steadily—unlike other border crossings with Mexico, which show continued declines in PV crossings. As expected, southbound CV crossings decreased during the recession from 2007 to 2009, but since 2009 they have continually increased.

Figure 5-4. Historical Trends in Southbound Border Crossings

In addition to testing the previously-mentioned variables independently, combinations of explanatory variables were tested to search for significant correlations (e.g., manufacturing and transportation employment; Val Verde County and Acuña municipality populations). After further review, it was determined that independent explanatory variables provide a better fit to the model than combinations of these variables.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 5-5 DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

Once the model could reasonably replicate the observed data, C&M used the recent trends and available forecasts for the adopted variables as the basis for future demand growth. Since 2012, the study area has exhibited border-crossing CAGRs of 4.1 percent for PVs and 1.9 percent for CVs. It is reasonable to assume that socioeconomic conditions will continue to improve due to trends indicating reduced violence, increased population, and increased employment due to maquiladora growth.

5.2. Econometric Model Results

5.2.1. Passenger Vehicle Econometric Model The following explanatory variables were used to estimate southbound PV traffic:  Val Verde County retail employment  Val Verde County retail sales  Acuña municipality vehicle ownership  Gas prices The regression model is represented by the following equation:

PVCrossingt = Intercept + βRetail Emp. * (Retail Empt) + βRetail Sales * (Retail Salest) + βVeh. * (Veht) + βGas$ * (Gas$t) Where:

PVCrossingt = Natural logarithm of the indexed southbound PV crossing for the existing POE in time period t

Retail Empt = Natural logarithm of the indexed retail employment in Val Verde County in time period t

Retail Salest = Natural logarithm of the indexed retail sales (in millions of 2009 dollars) in Val Verde County in time period t

Veht = Natural logarithm of the indexed vehicle ownership in Acuña municipality in time period t

Gas$t = Natural logarithm of the indexed gas prices (in 2009 dollars) in time period t

Table 5-1 presents the results of the analysis for the PV crossings.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 5-6 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

Table 5-1. PV Econometric Model Coefficients Variable Coefficient Intercept -8.47 Retail Employment 1.61 Retail Sales 0.72 Acuña Vehicle Ownership 0.55 Gas Price -0.06 Note: R2 = 0.97; Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.97

5.2.2. Commercial Vehicle Econometric Model The following explanatory variables were used in estimating southbound CV traffic:  Val Verde County transportation/warehouse employment  Val Verde County manufacturing employment  Acuña Maquiladoras manufacturing employment The regression model is represented by the following equation:

TruckCrossingt = Intercept + βTrans.Emp. * (Trans Empt) + βMan. Emp. * (Man Empt) + βMaq. * (Maqt) Where:

TruckCrossingt = Natural logarithm of the indexed southbound CV crossings for the existing POE in time period t

Trans Empt = Natural logarithm of the indexed transportation employment in Val Verde County in time period t

Man Empt = Natural logarithm of the indexed manufacturing employment in Val Verde County in time period t

Maq.t = Natural logarithm of the indexed Acuña maquiladora employment in time period t

Table 5-2 presents the results of the analysis for the CV crossings.

Table 5-2. CV Econometric Model Coefficients Variable Coefficient Intercept -4.96 Transportation Employment 0.63 Manufacturing Employment 1.18 Maquiladora Employment 0.28 Note: R2 = 0.95; Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.31

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 5-7 DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

5.3. Demand Forecast Results C&M used the econometric models described in the previous section to estimate demand for southbound PVs and CVs on both the existing and proposed bridges beginning in 2016. The southbound PV and CV forecast for both POEs is shown in Table 5-3 along with observed data. Comparisons of observed and predicted southbound crossings are illustrated in Figure 5-5 and Figure 5-6 for PVs and CVs, respectively. Induced (i.e., new) demand for PVs and CVs was not included in this demand forecast. Southbound PV crossings are expected to grow from over 1.5 million in 2016 to nearly 1.9 million in 2030 and to approximately 2.1 million by 2040, growing at an annual rate of 1.3 percent between 2016 and 2049. CV crossings are expected to grow from 67,000 in 2016 to over 111,000 in 2049, at an annual rate of 1.6 percent.

Figure 5-5. Southbound PV Crossings: Observed vs. Predicted

Figure 5-6. Southbound Truck Crossings: Observed vs. Predicted

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 5-8 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

Table 5-3. Econometric Model Results Southbound Crossings Southbound Crossings Year (Observed) (Estimated) PV CV PV CV 2007 1,693,000 72,400 1,667,000 73,800 2008 1,576,600 62,800 1,597,700 60,900 2009 1,377,200 50,400 1,392,500 50,900 2010 1,307,300 54,800 1,296,300 57,400 2011 1,291,200 60,600 1,274,000 59,900 2012 1,292,900 61,500 1,284,000 61,100 2013 1,305,600 62,800 1,351,500 61,600 2014 1,384,900 63,900 1,391,700 63,900 2015 1,460,000 65,000 1,468,300 65,700 2016 - - 1,512,800 67,000 2017 - - 1,552,800 68,500 2018 - - 1,586,500 70,000 2019 - - 1,617,600 71,600 2020 - - 1,647,100 73,300 2021 - - 1,673,600 75,000 2022 - - 1,699,000 76,600 2023 - - 1,723,300 78,200 2024 - - 1,748,900 79,900 2025 - - 1,773,300 81,400 2026 - - 1,797,700 83,000 2027 - - 1,822,000 84,500 2028 - - 1,846,300 85,900 2029 - - 1,869,400 87,400 2030 - - 1,893,900 88,800 2031 - - 1,917,100 90,200 2032 - - 1,941,700 91,500 2033 - - 1,965,200 92,900 2034 - - 1,988,800 94,200 2035 - - 2,012,900 95,500 2036 - - 2,035,100 96,800 2037 - - 2,057,500 98,100 2038 - - 2,080,100 99,300 2039 - - 2,103,000 100,500 2040 - - 2,126,100 101,700 2041 - - 2,149,500 102,900 2042 - - 2,173,100 104,100 2043 - - 2,197,000 105,200 2044 - - 2,219,000 106,300 2045 - - 2,241,200 107,400 2046 - - 2,263,600 108,500 2047 - - 2,286,200 109,500 2048 - - 2,309,100 110,600 2049 - - 2,332,200 111,600

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 5-9 DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

5.4. Demand Assignment Using the CMDATDM described in Chapter 4, both PVs and CVs were assigned to the existing and proposed POEs. For this study, C&M assumed all CVs (loaded and empty) are eligible to use the Project, with access to FAST lanes. While CVs are assumed to use the Project (as they will not be allowed on the existing POE), PVs selection of POE is based on several factors, primarily their trip OD and travel time. Using the border waiting times collected for the existing Del Rio POE and other border crossings— combined with vehicle arrivals at the POE in the northbound direction—C&M determined the relationship between observed waiting times and vehicles approaching the POE. This relationship was converted to a volume-delay function (VDF) and used in the CMDATDM. For the future model years, the same relationship between vehicles and waiting times was assumed for both the existing and proposed POE. It was also assumed that traffic does not experience significant delays crossing the border into Mexico, as is typical of other border crossings from Texas to Mexico. C&M’s site visit to other border crossings indicated that congestion in the southbound direction is a minor factor influencing driver behavior. Using the relationship determined for the northbound direction, C&M developed a reduced impact relationship/function for the southbound direction that was applied to both POEs in future years. Table 5-4 below presents the weekday border crossing traffic for all three POEs in the study area, including the Lake Amistad Dam Crossing. In 2020, the proposed bridge is expected to carry approximately 700 PVs in the southbound direction, increasing to approximately 1,300 by 2035. The traffic on the existing bridge is expected to increase at a CAGR of less than 1.0 percent between 2020 and 2035. At the Amistad Dam, traffic is expected to increase at a CAGR of approximately 0.5 percent in both directions between 2020 and 2035. Both the existing bridge and the Lake Amistad Dam are expected to lose traffic after the proposed bridge opens in 2020. All CVs are assumed to use the new bridge beginning in 2020 and are expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.7 percent between 2020 and 2035.

Table 5-4. Weekday Border Crossing Traffic Existing POE Proposed POE Lake Amistad Dam POE Year Northbound Southbound Northbound Southbound Northbound Southbound Personal Vehicles 2020 3,240 3,770 1,300 710 100 170 2035 3,700 4,220 1,930 1,320 110 180 Commercial Vehicles 2020 0 0 270 270 0 0 2035 0 0 350 350 0 0

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 5-10 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

5.5. Toll Rate C&M contacted the City of Del Rio, operator of the existing Del Rio POE, to gather and review the historical toll rates for the southbound crossing. Figure 5-7 and Table 5-5 present the average toll rates by year for both PVs and CVs. In Figure 5-7, PVs are considered Class 1, whereas CVs with different axles are classified under Class 2 through Class 6. As shown, toll rates were constant between 1991 and 1997. PV tolls increased in 1998 and continued increasing through the year 2000. The PV toll rate remained at $2.00 from 2000 to 2005, increasing to $2.13 in 2006. After 2006, the PV toll rate was increased in 2010 and 2014. The average PV toll rate in 2015 was $3.50. Similar to PVs, CVs also experienced toll increases between 1991 and 2015. The average toll for all CVs in 2015 was $21.42. Since the toll rate changes are decided by the City Council and are not modified based on an existing toll policy, no scheduled increases in toll rates were assumed for this study. Toll rates for future years are assumed to be the same as in September 2016, escalated by Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Figure 5-7. Toll Rates by Vehicle Class

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 5-11 DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

Table 5-5. Southbound Average Toll Rates Toll Rate Year PV CV 1991 $1.00 $6.99 1992 $1.00 $6.99 1993 $1.00 $6.99 1994 $1.00 $6.99 1995 $1.00 $6.99 1996 $1.00 $6.99 1997 $1.00 $7.14 1998 $1.21 $7.57 1999 $1.71 $9.86 2000 $2.00 $12.24 2001 $2.00 $12.24 2002 $2.00 $12.24 2003 $2.00 $12.24 2004 $2.00 $12.24 2005 $2.00 $12.24 2006 $2.13 $12.24 2007 $2.50 $12.75 2008 $2.50 $14.28 2009 $2.50 $14.28 2010 $2.79 $14.79 2011 $3.00 $16.32 2012 $3.00 $16.32 2013 $3.00 $16.32 2014 $3.13 $17.34 2015 $3.50 $21.42

5.6. Traffic and Revenue Assumptions C&M’s T&R forecast utilized a set of post-processing assumptions. These assumptions are based on C&M’s experience with other binational studies and from data obtained specifically for this study. The basic assumptions utilized for this study are as follows:  The Project is expected to open to traffic by January 1, 2020.  Both PVs and CVs will be permitted to use the Project.  CVs will not be allowed to use the existing POE beginning in 2020 when the Project opens.  The currently-approved alignment will have appropriate connectivity to the local network on both sides of the border.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 5-12 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

 Toll rates for the existing and proposed POE will be the same as September 2016 rates in all years. For PVs, it is $3.50. For CVs, an average toll rate of $24.50 was estimated based on total southbound CV traffic and revenue during the last quarter of 2015. It is assumed that the toll rate will be escalated by CPI.  The Lake Amistad Dam will remain open with its current configuration and operation standards.  Tolls will be collected by the same mode on the existing and proposed POE (cash toll; prepaid).  No revenue leakage is assumed since all vehicles need to pay a toll to cross the bridge. Only emergency vehicles and authorized CBP vehicles are not required to pay a toll.  To obtain annual T&R figures, C&M estimated revenue days to be 350 for PVs. This is based on the existing southbound crossing data provided by the City of Del Rio and permanent counter data (received from TxDOT) for traffic count locations within the study area. For CVs, C&M estimated 273 revenue days—a result of analyzing weekday and weekend southbound border crossings as provided by the City of Del Rio.  Ramp-up represents the period of time required for a facility to reach its full traffic potential, as travelers become increasingly aware of the facility. For PVs, Project utilization is assumed to be 60 percent in the opening year, increasing to 70 percent in 2021, 80 percent in 2022, 90 percent in 2023 and reaching 100 percent by 2024. No ramp-up was assumed for CVs, as they are expected to fully utilize the Project when their access to the existing POE is removed in the Project’s opening year.  The use of alternative modes of transportation in the area of influence is assumed to remain unchanged during the forecast period.  Gasoline availability and prices are assumed to remain at levels that will not significantly affect traffic.  Federal and state fuel taxes are assumed to not change to a degree that would affect travel behavior.  It is assumed that the Project will be efficiently maintained for the length of the forecast period. Table 5-6 summarizes the T&R assumptions discussed above.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 5-13 DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

Table 5-6. Traffic and Revenue Assumptions Item Description Project Type Border Crossing Project Location Del Rio, TX Study Area Del Rio, TX and Acuna, Coahuila, MX Opening Year 1-Jan-2020 Passenger Vehicles $3.50 Toll Rates (2016 dollars) Commercial Vehicles $24.50 Commercial Vehicle Axle Toll Factor 4.1 Toll Collection System Cash Toll / Prepaid Toll-Free Vehicles Emergency / Authorized CBP Vehicles Forecast Period 30 years Annualization Factor Passenger Vehicles 350 (All years) Commercial Vehicles 273 First year 60% Second year 70% Ramp-Up Third year 80% (Passenger Vehicles) Fourth year 90% Following years 100%

5.7. Traffic and Revenue Results This section presents the results of C&M’s T&R analysis in terms of annual toll transactions and revenue. The model forecast years from the CMDATDM were interpolated and extrapolated as necessary to obtain annual transaction and revenue figures by employing a post-processing model. The presented forecast is the estimated traffic that will use the Project and the corresponding revenue by class (PVs and CVs) for the years 2020 through 2049. The T&R forecast is presented in Table 5-7 and illustrated in Figure 5-8 and Figure 5-9 for PVs and CVs, respectively. All revenues are expressed in 2016 dollars. For the opening year 2020, C&M forecasts that PVs will generate approximately $522,000 in toll revenue as a result of roughly 149,000 toll transactions. By 2030, the number of transactions is projected to increase to approximately 376,000, and to 537,000 by the final forecast year 2049. Annual revenue is projected to reach approximately $1.3 million by 2030 and $1.9 million by 2049. In 2024, after the ramp-up period, the capture rate of the Project in the southbound direction is approximately 17 percent, increasing steadily to 23 percent by 2035 and remaining constant thereafter. For CVs, C&M forecasts approximately $1.8 million in toll revenue in 2020 as a result of 73,000 toll transactions. By 2030, the number of transactions is projected to increase to approximately 89,000 and to 112,000 by the final forecast year 2049. Annual revenue is projected to reach nearly $2.2 million by 2030 and to $2.7 million by 2049. As mentioned earlier, all CV traffic is diverted to the Project from the existing POE after the Project’s opening in 2020.

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 5-14 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

Table 5-7. The Project’s Annual Transactions and Revenue Forecast

Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles All Vehicles Year Revenue Revenue Revenue Transactions Transactions Transactions (2016$) (2016$) (2016$) 2020 149,100 $521,900 73,300 $1,795,900 222,400 $2,317,800 2021 181,300 $634,600 75,000 $1,837,500 256,300 $2,472,100 2022 215,900 $755,700 76,600 $1,876,700 292,500 $2,632,400 2023 253,200 $886,200 78,200 $1,915,900 331,400 $2,802,100 2024 293,200 $1,026,200 79,900 $1,957,600 373,100 $2,983,800 2025 305,600 $1,069,600 81,400 $1,994,300 387,000 $3,063,900 2026 318,500 $1,114,800 83,000 $2,033,500 401,500 $3,148,300 2027 331,900 $1,161,700 84,500 $2,070,300 416,400 $3,232,000 2028 345,900 $1,210,700 85,900 $2,104,600 431,800 $3,315,300 2029 360,500 $1,261,800 87,400 $2,141,300 447,900 $3,403,100 2030 375,700 $1,315,000 88,800 $2,175,600 464,500 $3,490,600 2031 391,600 $1,370,600 90,200 $2,209,900 481,800 $3,580,500 2032 408,100 $1,428,400 91,500 $2,241,800 499,600 $3,670,200 2033 425,300 $1,488,600 92,900 $2,276,100 518,200 $3,764,700 2034 443,300 $1,551,600 94,200 $2,307,900 537,500 $3,859,500 2035 462,000 $1,617,000 95,500 $2,339,800 557,500 $3,956,800 2036 467,300 $1,635,600 96,800 $2,371,600 564,100 $4,007,200 2037 472,600 $1,654,100 98,100 $2,403,500 570,700 $4,057,600 2038 478,000 $1,673,000 99,300 $2,432,900 577,300 $4,105,900 2039 483,400 $1,691,900 100,500 $2,462,300 583,900 $4,154,200 2040 488,900 $1,711,200 101,700 $2,491,700 590,600 $4,202,900 2041 494,500 $1,730,800 102,900 $2,521,100 597,400 $4,251,900 2042 500,200 $1,750,700 104,100 $2,550,500 604,300 $4,301,200 2043 505,900 $1,770,700 105,200 $2,577,400 611,100 $4,348,100 2044 510,900 $1,788,200 106,300 $2,604,400 617,200 $4,392,600 2045 516,000 $1,806,000 107,400 $2,631,300 623,400 $4,437,300 2046 521,200 $1,824,200 108,500 $2,658,300 629,700 $4,482,500 2047 526,400 $1,842,400 109,500 $2,682,800 635,900 $4,525,200 2048 531,700 $1,861,000 110,600 $2,709,700 642,300 $4,570,700 2049 537,000 $1,879,500 111,600 $2,734,200 648,600 $4,613,700

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study 5-15 DRAFT V1 5. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST

Figure 5-8. Passenger Vehicle T&R Forecast for the Project

Figure 5-9. Commercial Vehicle T&R Forecast for the Project

1 Morton, N. (2013, February 6). Toyota changed jobs game in S.A. Retrieved from http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local_news/article/Toyota-changed-jobs-game-in-S-A-4246638.php

2 Toyota Kentucky (2015, January 9). Delivering the goods: Toyota North America built nearly two million vehicles in 2014. Retrieved from http://toyotaky.com/detailnews.asp?PRID=553

Del Rio-Acuña II International Port of Entry 5-16 Level 2 Traffic and Revenue Study DRAFT V1