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Exchange-Traded Funds GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT NORTH AMERICA Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated Paul J. Mazzilli [email protected] +1 (1)914 225 4808 Dominic Maister [email protected] +1 (1)914 225 4856 November 14, 2006 Asif Khan, CFA [email protected] +1 (1)914 225 4829 Exchange-Traded Funds Quarterly Report: Over $400 What’s New Billion in 354 ETFs With a 60% increase in US listings in 2006, it is no longer practical to publish one-page profiles on each ETF in this report. Included are complete profiles on ETFs having over This is our comprehensive quarterly report on US- $75 million in assets as of November 1, 2006. Basic data on listed ETFs. It includes a summary of ETF investment all US-Listed ETFs is included on the list on pages 4-10 where we have highlighted in bold our favored ETFs by market applications, excerpts from our strategy reports, our segment. Our selection criteria include index composition, ETF outlook for the US and international equity and fixed- expenses, and liquidity and our market outlook. income markets, index data, and individual ETF Report Overview profiles. List of Available ETFs (4-10) Overview and Strategies (11-32) The US ETF market continues to show rapid growth. US Equity ETF Profiles (37-185) In 2006, 135 new ETFs have been issued and the US International Equity ETF Profiles (191-235) market now has 354 ETFs with $409 billion in assets. Fixed-Income ETF Profiles (238-243) Markets accessible through ETFs include US and Commodity and Currency ETF Profiles (245-251) international equities, fixed-income, commodities, and Featured Strategy Reports currencies. Our report on ETF market growth in 2006 is included on pages 17-21. One-page excerpts from our recent strategy reports on ETFs provide access to our favorite markets and Commodity and Currency ETFs are included on pages 29 and 30, respectively. sectors. Morgan Stanley’s US strategists favor large-cap and growth stocks and are overweight the financials, Prices and net asset values as of November 8, 2006, unless health care, industrials, consumer staples and technology otherwise indicated. sectors. Our global equity strategists continue to like Europe and Japan and believe that most investors should As with any investment, ETFs have risks. These include the general risks associated with investing in the underlying have meaningful exposure to international equities. assets, potential tracking error, and the possibility that particular indexes may lag other market segments or active managers. (See “Investment Concerns” on page 252.) US-Listed ETF Growth ETFs include index-linked funds regulated under the 500 400 350 Investment Company Act of 1940 that trade on US securities 400 Assets ($Bil) 300 exchanges under exceptive relief from the Securities and Total ETFs 300 250 Exchange Commission (SEC) as well as grantor trusts 200 200 150 consisting of a basket of stocks and marketed as “HOLDRS.” 100 100 ETFs of Number Total Assets ($Bil) Assets Total 50 US-listed, open-end fund ETFs must be offered under and 0 0 2006- 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 sold only pursuant to a Prospectus. US-listed ETFs may not YTD be marketed or sold in a number of jurisdictions and may not Assets ($Bil) 1 2 7 16 36 71 89 102 157 227 305 409 Total ETFs 2 19 19 29 32 95 118 119 134 169 221 356 be suitable for all investors. Morgan Stanley Sales Personnel should check with the Law Division to clarify whether they may market the ETFs in a particular Source. Morgan Stanley Research as of 11/9/06 jurisdiction. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT November 14, 2006 Exchange-Traded Funds Table of Contents Favored ETF Investment Ideas 3 List of Available US-Listed Exchange-Traded Funds 4-10 ETF Market Overview and Advantages 11-12 ETF Investment Applications 13 Implementing Morgan Stanley Asset Allocation Models with ETFs Global Wealth Management (GWM) Asset Allocation Frameworks 14-15 US Large-Cap Sector Asset Allocation Model 16 Featured Strategy Reports US Market Sees Explosive Growth in Listings in 2006 17-21 Strategies Using Index-Linked ETFs Core/Satellite 22 Core Equity Investments 23 Market Cap Investing 24 Style Diversification 25 Sector and Industry Investing 26 International Investing 27 Fixed-Income Investing 28 Investing in Commodities 29 Investing in Foreign Currencies 30 Recognizing Losses Using ETFs 31 Prospective Tax Planning with ETFs 32 US Equity Market Performance and Outlook 33-35 Individual US Equity ETF Profiles 37-185 International Equity Market Performance and Outlook 186-190 Individual International Equity ETF Profiles 191-235 Fixed-Income Market Performance and Outlook 236-237 Individual Fixed-Income ETF Profiles 238-243 Commodities and Currencies Market Performance and Outlook 244 Individual Commodity and Currency ETF Profiles 245-251 Appendices Investment Concerns 252 A Closer Look at ETF Structures 253 ETF “In-Kind” Creation/Redemption Process 254 Selected Index Descriptions 255-258 We would like to acknowledge the contributions of Mansi Shah to this report. 2 GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT November 14, 2006 Exchange-Traded Funds FAVORED ETF INVESTMENT IDEAS This list highlights ETFs that, in our opinion, best target Morgan Stanley’s global research recommendations. US Equity International Equity In the US, we remain positive on equities and favor large We remain bullish on international equities and are capitalization and growth stocks. We are also overweight currently overweight in Europe and Japan. Despite the Consumer Staples, Financials, Health Care, Industrials and strong returns over the past few years, we also believe Information Technology Sectors. In addition, over the long investors should maintain some exposure to emerging term an aging American population is likely lead to an increase markets as a result of their above average growth potential. in demand for higher dividend-paying securities. See page 36 See page for 190 for additional details on our outlook for for additional details on our outlook for the US market. international markets. Broad US Core Holding Broad International • • Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA) • iShares MSCI EAFE Growth Index Fund (EFG) Large-Cap • S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) Regional International • • Diamonds (DIA) Vanguard European ETF (VGK) • Vanguard Pacific ETF (VPL) Large-Cap Growth • iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) Emerging Markets • • iShares S&P 500 Growth (IVW) iShares MSCI EM Index Fund (EEM) • • Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) Sector & Industry Country-Specific International • • Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund (EWJ) • • Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) iShares MSCI South Korea (EWY) • • Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) iShares MSCI Taiwan (EWT) • iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund (IBB) US Fixed-Income • Industrials Select Sector SPDR (XLI) We remain cautious on fixed-income markets. • iShares DJ US Technology (IYW) However, for investors looking for exposure in the markets, we prefer higher-quality lower-duration assets. ETFs can • Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) also be used to provide exposure to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). See page 237 for additional Dividend Income details on our outlook for the fixed-income markets. • iShares DJ Select Dividend Index Fund (DVY) • iShares Lehman 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (SHY) • PowerShares HY Equity Dividend Achievers (PEY) • iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) • iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) 3 GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT November 14, 2006 Exchange-Traded Funds US-Listed Exchange-Traded Funds 11/8/2006 Intraday Approx # Expense Total Avg Daily Trading Price NAV Securities Ratio Assets Volume Options Symbol ($) Symbol in Fund (%) ($ Mil) (1000/shrs) Avail. Page US Major Market ETFs Broad Market Fidelity Nasdaq Composite ONEQ 93.80 ONEQI 2,035 0.30 168 41 Yes 37 iShares DJ US Total Market IYY 67.22 IYYIV 1,626 0.20 525 29 Yes 38 iShares NYSE Composite NYC 81.19 NYCIV 1,481 0.25 101 12 Yes 39 iShares Russell 3000 IWV 80.11 IWVIV 2,947 0.20 2,438 262 Yes 40 iShares S&P 1500 ISI 123.34 EIS 1,497 0.20 166 9 No 41 PowerShares FTSE RAFI 1500 Sml-Mid PRFZ 52.98 PRFZIV 71 0.60 26 na No * streetTRACKS Total Market TMW 99.73 FFY 725 0.20 109 4 Yes 42 Vanguard Extended Market ETF VXF 100.46 EAH 1,871 0.08 429 39 Yes 43 Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF VTI 137.20 TSJ 1,765 0.07 6,475 146 Yes 44 WisdomTree Total Dividend DTD 56.31 DTDIV 755 0.28 50 12 No * Large-Cap Diamonds DIA 121.83 DXV 30 0.18 6,373 6,867 Yes 45 First Trust NASDAQ-100 Eq. Wght. QQEW 19.88 QQEWI 100 0.60 23 21 No * iShares NYSE 100 NY 73.12 NYIV 100 0.20 341 62 Yes 46 iShares Russell 1000 IWB 75.17 IWBIV 986 0.15 2,827 179 Yes 47 iShares S&P 100 OEF 64.75 OEFIV 100 0.20 3,280 804 Yes 48 iShares S&P 500 IVV 139.06 IVVIV 499 0.09 17,971 780 Yes 49 Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock QQQQ 43.03 QXV 100 0.20 19,396 109,823 Yes 50 PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1000 PRF 56.51 PRFIV 1,000 0.60 495 100 Yes 51 Rydex Russell Top 50 XLG 105.28 XLGIV 50 0.20 397 78 Yes 52 Rydex S&P 500 Equalweight RSP 46.34 RSPIV 500 0.40 1,761 252 Yes 53 S&P Depositary Receipts (SPDR) SPY 138.91 SXV 500 0.10 65,606 65,573
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