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Canada's Skills Crisis: What We Heard

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Canada's Skills Crisis: What We Heard Canada’s Skills Crisis: What We Heard A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report on cross-country consultations in 2012 Updated Sept. 27, 2012 This report was made possible by the generous support of our sponsors Diamond Platinum Gold ADP Canada Deloitte & Touche LLP Teck UOIT (University of Ontario Institute of Technology) This report was made possible by the Table of Contents generous support of our sponsors President’s Message ........................................................................................................................ 3 Consultation process ..................................................................................................................... 9 Alberta .............................................................................................................................................. 10 Prairies – Manitoba and Saskatchewan ....................................................................................... 17 British Columbia ............................................................................................................................. 22 Ontario – Golden Horseshoe ......................................................................................................... 24 Quebec .............................................................................................................................................. 28 Atlantic Canada ............................................................................................................................... 31 Canada’s Territories ........................................................................................................................ 33 Sector Perspectives .......................................................................................................................... 36 Key Emerging Issues ...................................................................................................................... 40 From Consultation to Action - A Skills Work Plan .............................................................................41 Appendix A - Survey results: skills challenges .......................................................................... 45 Appendix B - Best practices ........................................................................................................... 59 Appendix C - Participants list ....................................................................................................... 61 President’s Message Why skills? the skills needed and those available has evolved into a skills crisis. The Canadian economy faces a As Canada confronts growing competition deep structural problem. throughout the world, the human resources supporting our business enterprises are becoming 2012 has been the tipping point for many Canadian ever more important. businesses confronting skills and labour shortages. A critical issue that had been hidden by the recession Canadian businesses began to report serious is now fully apparent. problems finding the workers they needed as the Canadian economy slowly grew out of the recession. RBC Economics Research depicts the overall gap that will develop as the number of workers available is The evidence is clear. The demographic shift outpaced by those needed over the next 20 years.1 resulting in retirements, a deepening shortfall of skilled workers and the growing mismatch between ...creating demand for new workers Labour force at historical growth rates and projected growth rates; thousands Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research 1 RBC Economics Research used the medium economic growth population projections calculated by Statistics Canada. The projected levels include migratory increase (immigration less emigration) and the natural increase (births less deaths). “Available” workers were calculated according to growth in population (15 years +) and a static participation rate. The “needed” workers are calculated based on the labour force growing at a constant rate that is in line with the average pace of the prior 35 years. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce 3 In his 2012 report Jobs of the Future, Dr. Rick Miner Disabilities began two parallel studies to explore shows the “looming shortage of skilled labour in “fixing the skills gap” and “understanding labour the midst of a surplus of unskilled labour” which is market shortages.” I appeared before the committee graphically displayed by the mauve bars in Figure 9.2 in the spring and look forward to its report this year. In February 2012, two weeks after we launched our Human resource challenges are a sprawling subject. Top 10 Barriers to Competitiveness initiative and our Many organizations, including partners of ours, have focus on the skills crisis, the House of Commons been active in this area for a long time. How can the Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Canadian Chamber make an important contribution? Development and the Status of Persons with Figure 9. Canada Labour Force Balance: nothing else were done. Using this logic, we can High Population Growth Figure 9. Canada Labour Force Balance: estimate thatnothing by 2031else were approximately done. Using this 66% logic, of we the can Figure 9. CanadaHigh Labour Population Force Balance: Growth workforce estimatewill have that a bypost 2031-secondary approximately credential. 66% of the 2000 High Population Growth workforce will have a post-secondary credential. There will, of course, be some provincial 2000 There will, of course, be some provincial (thousands) variations. (thousands) 1000 variations. 1000 Labour Labour Total LF 0 0 Total LF Putting thesePutting data these together, data together, we conclude, we conclude, as as Skill Shortage Skill Shortage in the third line of Table 2, that by 2031 Unskilled Surplus in the third line of Table 2, that by 2031 -1000-1000 Unskilled Surplus approximatelyapproximately 77% of 77% the ofworkforce the workforce will will require a post-secondary education or -2000 require a post-secondary education or -2000 training. This begs the crucial question of Deficit Surplus Force by Skilled Forceby Skilled Unskilled and -3000 training. Thiswhether begs the thesupply crucial of skilled question workers of will meet Deficit Surplus Force by Skilled Forceby Skilled Unskilled and -3000 the demand and, if not, how serious the Labour whether the supply of skilled workers will meet -4000 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 imbalance will be. Labour the demand and, if not, how serious the Total LF -361.6 -605.1 -981.4 -1259.5 -1446.4 -4000 imbalance will be. Skill Shortage -491.92011 -1269.3 2016-2295.1 2021-2844.7 -3376.42026 2031 TotalUnskilled LF Surplus 130.3-361.6 664.2 -605.11313.8 -981.41585.2 -1259.51930.0 -1446.4 Skill Shortage -491.9 -1269.3 -2295.1 -2844.7 -3376.4 SUPPLY AND DEMAND: A LOOMING Unskilled Surplus 130.3 664.2 1313.8 1585.2 1930.0 IMBALANCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND: A LOOMING We answer these questions by combining our In both cases the red bars represent the total IMBALANCE labour force availability projection using Statistics projected labour force shortage and thus appear Canada’s three population scenarios (high, below the line. These are the same results shown medium and low) with the skill requirements2 in Miner, Rick. Jobs of the Future. Toronto: Miner Management Consultants. March 2012. Figure 9 is based on labour force availability We answer these questions by combining our projectionInearlier using both Statistics in cases Figure Canada’s 7.the highThe red population mauve bars scenario. line represent then separates the total labour forceTable availability 2. The results projection for the medium using andStatistics high projectedout the shortage labour of skilledforce labour,shortage which and also thus appear population scenarios are provided in Figures 8 Canada’s three population scenarios (high, belowappears the below line. the These line. The are green the line,same by contrast,results shown and 9. 4 Canada’sshows Skills Crisisthe projected surplus of unskilled labour and medium and low) with the skill requirements in earlieris shown in above Figure the 7. line. The mauve line then separates Table 2. The results for the medium and high out the shortage of skilled labour, which also Figure 8. Canada Labour Force Balance: population scenarios areMedium provided Population Growthin Figures 8 appearsThus below we theconfront line. the The prospect green of line, a by contrast, and 9. 2000 shows thelooming projected shortage surplus of skilled of labour unskilled labour and is shownoccurring above inthe the line. midst of a surplus of 1000 unskilled labour. The social and economic consequences of this (people without jobs Figure0 8. Canada Labour Force Balance: Medium Population Growth andThus jobs we without confront people) the are prospect both complex of a -1000 and alarming. The message is clear: 2000 looming shortage of skilled labour Unless we take effective action to Total LF occurring in the midst of a surplus of -2000 increase the proportion of skilled 1000 Skill Shortage Unskilled Surplus labourunskilled in our labour. economy, The we social face a and economic -3000 futureconsequences with large numbers of this (peopleof unskilled without jobs 0 -4000 workers looking for jobs that require Deficit Deficit Surplus and jobs without people) are both complex Labour Forceby Skilled andUnskilled Labour (thousands) skills they do not possess. -1000 -5000 and alarming. The message is clear: 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Total LF -472.9 -914.4
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