Israel and the Middle East News Update

Wednesday, February 18

Headlines:  CNN Poll: Majority of Americans Oppose Netanyahu Invite  Ross: Netanyahu Should Admit Decision to Address Congress was a Mistake  Haredi Parties Indicate Endorsement for Netanyahu  Netanyahu's Electability Suffers Blow After Damning Report  Rivals Bash Netanyahu Over Spending  Israeli Defense Minister at India Airshow to Boost Arms Sales  Khamenei Threatens World Gas Supply, Vows Firm Nuclear Stand  Sisi Calls for U.N.-Backed Coalition to Intervene in Libya

Commentary:  Ha’aretz: “Netanyahu Forgot He’s Supposed to Serve His Voters, Not Abuse Their Trust”  Editorial  Ma’ariv: “Bibi’s Speech to Congress Could Tip the Electoral Scale”  By Ben Caspit

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Nathaniel Sobel, Associate Editor

News Excerpts February 18, 2015 CNN CNN Poll: Majority of Americans Oppose Netanyahu Invite A large majority of Americans believe that Republican congressional leaders should not have invited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to speak to Congress without consulting the White House, according to a new CNN/ORC survey. The nationwide poll, released Tuesday, shows 63% of Americans say it was a bad move for congressional leadership to extend the invitation without giving President Barack Obama a heads up that it was coming. Only 33% say it was the right thing to do.

Ha’aretz Ross: PM Should Admit Decision to address Congress a mistake “We will all rue that day,” if Israel becomes a partisan issue in the United States, former U.S. diplomat and Middle East expert Dennis Ross said on Tuesday at the Haaretz Israel Conference on Democracy. “You don’t do business that way,” Ross said, referring to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned speech to Congress next month, which has led to a deep rift with the Obama administration. “And when you make a mistake, admit it.” Bipartisanism has allowed support for Israel to flourish in the U.S., Ross stressed, and “the last thing you want to do is have Israel become a partisan issue – especially at a time of demographic change in America.” See also, “Writer Oz slams PM for worsening ties with US” (Times of Israel)

Israel Radio News Haredi Parties Indicate Endorsement for Netanyahu The Haredi parties are expected to announce in the coming days that they will recommend to President Rivlin that Binyamin Netanyahu be tasked with forming the next coalition after the elections on March 17. Last night, Shas decided to support Netanyahu after the latter announced he would nullify criminal charges against yeshiva students who do not serve in the IDF. UTJ is expected to make a similar announcement in the coming days. See also, “Netanyahu pledges no jail time for Haredi draft-dodgers” (Times of Israel)

Ynet News Netanyahu's Electability Suffers Blow After Damning Report A damning report by the state comptroller into the prime minister and his family's expenditures has dealt Benjamin Netanyahu a serious electoral blow, a new survey published by Israel's Army Radio revealed Wednesday morning. The report released by State Comptroller Yosef Shapira found a dramatic increase in the prime minister residence's spending on food, cleaning and clothing after Benjamin Netanyahu took office. According to the survey, 41 percent of the respondents said that the chance they would support the Likud in the March 17th election had dropped. Out of those who said they were voting for the ruling party, 22 percent said they were now reconsidering, or were less supportive of the party, in wake of the report's publication. Some 49 percent of general voters and 54 percent of the Likud voters said the report would not influence their vote. See also, “Former Netanyahu employee: I feel like a girl who's been raped and told to shut up” (Jerusalem Post) See also, “Netanyahu is cheap, petty, paranoid - but coated in Teflon” (by Gidi Weitz, Ha’aretz) 2

Times of Israel Rivals Bash Netanyahu Over Spending Political opponents of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seized on an official report detailing excessive spending and possible criminal misdeeds released Tuesday, portraying the premier as out of touch with average Israelis. Zionist Union party leader Isaac Herzog said, “the hedonism, the ill treatment of workers, and the spending of public funds makes one’s blood boil, but the public wants to replace Netanyahu not because of his conduct at home, but rather because he ruined our [national] home.” The Yesh Atid party also responded to the report, saying: “The State Comptroller’s report paints a picture that the citizens of Israel understood long ago. On Balfour Street in Jerusalem sits a man who is totally disconnected and for whom the real problems of the people of Israel are the last thing on his mind,” the party said. See also, “Despite hefty spending, PM may be in biggest stew over electrician” (Times of Israel)

Reuters Israeli Defense Minister at India Airshow to Boost Arms Sales Israel's defense minister arrived in India on Wednesday to help sell his country's arms industry to the world's largest defense importer and promote deepening military ties between the two nations. India and Israel, which only established full diplomatic ties in 1992, are developing an increasingly close commercial and political relationship, particularly since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was elected last May. New Delhi is now the largest buyer of Israeli military equipment, while Israel is India's largest customer after Russia. In the first public visit to India by an Israeli defense minister, Moshe Ya'alon landed at the biennial Aero India airshow in Bengaluru. He told journalists India was vital to his country's defense industry. See also, “Defense Minister Ya’alon: No solution to Israeli-Palestinian conflict” (Institute for National Security Studies)

Reuters Khamenei Threatens World Gas Supply, Vows firm nuclear stand Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed on Wednesday that his country would resist global sanctions imposed over its disputed nuclear program, saying that Iran might respond to international pressure by cutting back gas exports. "The enemy is using the lever of sanctions to the hilt and their goal is to stop our people's progress," Khamenei said in a public speech in Tehran. "If sanctions are to be the way, the Iranian nation can also do it. A big collection of the world's oil and gas is in Iran so Iran if necessary can hold back on the gas that Europe and the world is so dependent on." See also, “Dennis Ross Suggests 'Anytime, Anywhere' Inspections in Iran” (Israel National News)

Wall Street Journal Sisi Calls for U.N.-Backed Coalition to Intervene in Libya Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi called on Tuesday for a U.N. resolution endorsing an international military campaign against Islamic State in Libya, one day after he ordered cross-border airstrikes in retaliation for the mass execution of 21 Egyptian Christians by the extremist group. Mr. Sisi said the international community had “no other choice” but to heed the wishes of Libyans and their Western-backed government, and to join in the fight against Islamic State in Libya.

Ha’aretz – February 18, 2015 Netanyahu Forgot He's Supposed to Serve his Voters, Not Abuse Their Trust Police must quickly launch a probe into the situation described in the State Comptroller's report - and finish it before the elections. Haaretz Editorial  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to delay publication of a state comptroller’s report on the management of his residences until after next months’ election, so as to blunt its sting and reduce its public impact. Netanyahu and his representatives, who knew how severe the report’s contents were, almost succeeded in this goal, thanks to State Comptroller Joseph Shapira’s willingness to cooperate with them. Only public pressure, accompanied by media reports about issues that the comptroller preferred not to deal with in this report, brought him to change his plans and release the report yesterday.  The situation described in the report is embarrassing. The person who has headed the government for the last six years appears to have no shame in his behavior. Netanyahu and his wife, Sara, forgot that an elected official is supposed to serve his voters, not abuse the trust they gave him.  The things described in the report are outrageous. The list is long and includes, inter alia, an instruction to cancel tax payments, circumventing the regulations to employ an electrician who was a family friend, sending employees out to do the Netanyahus’ personal shopping without reimbursing them, wastefulness and hedonism at the state’s expense.  This is shameful behavior, but that conclusion by itself is insufficient, because there are also prima facie indications of criminal behavior. Until now, Netanyahu has not only enjoyed the help of the comptroller, but also, and especially, that of the men who occupy the two most senior positions in the law enforcement system, both of whom are his appointees – Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein and State Prosecutor Shai Nitzan. Both have gone out of their way to thwart criminal proceedings against Netanyahu, or even proceedings that could lead in that direction and end up tagging him as one of the chief suspects.  This intolerable situation must end. Any other person who was the subject of findings like those in the comptroller’s report would have been put under criminal investigation, in addition to the torrent of public criticism that would have rained down on him. The box of excuses in Weinstein and Nitzan’s offices has run out. The comptroller’s report and the material that substantiates it; the civil suit filed by the former housekeeper at the prime minister’s residence, Meni Naftali; the admission by the Netanyahus that they pocketed 4,000 shekels (about $1,000) in bottle deposits – all these constitute clear grounds for an immediate criminal investigation.  The proximity to the election should not prevent such a probe. On the contrary, the police should make haste to finish this simple investigation within the next four weeks, so that the conclusions they pass on to the prosecution can also be placed before the voters.

Al-Monitor – February 17, 2015 Bibi's Speech to Congress Could Tip Electoral Scale By Ben Caspit  There is only one more month until the Israeli elections take place March 17, and we are getting a much clearer picture of what is actually happening. This was supposed to be a multiparty race, with five or six midsized parties or coalitions — the Likud with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Zionist Camp with Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni, Naftali Bennett (HaBayit HaYehudi), Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu), Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) and Moshe Kahlon (Kulanu) — but it has turned into a head-to-head clash between Netanyahu and Zionist Camp Chair Herzog. Livni, Herzog’s partner in the Zionist Camp, has been pushed to the sidelines for concerns about her electoral pull (as Mazal Mualem reported here), after initially helping Herzog shoot up almost overnight into being almost on par with Netanyahu in terms of strength.  The balance of power between Netanyahu and Herzog places them in a dead heat. A rundown of the polls published over the past two weeks shows them head-to-head, with 25 seats each. The fact that this has become a race between the two men has been severely damaging to the other parties, which are regarded as increasingly less relevant. Bennett is plummeting in the polls, because his electorate is determined to “save the right” by voting for Netanyahu. Lapid is unable to leap ahead for the exact same reason. Kahlon and Liberman are in an even worse state. Then there are these three conspicuous additional factors: 1. In the 2009 elections, Livni and Netanyahu finished in a virtual tie (28-27 for Livni), but Netanyahu had more than 61 Knesset members to recommend him to President Shimon Peres, who then granted him the task of forming the next government. This time, however, the fight over who will recommend each candidate is close. At present, neither of the two men (Herzog or Netanyahu) has a majority to recommend him to the president on the day after the election. In that case, the decision will be left to President Reuven Rivlin, who is himself aligned with the right, but who also has a long history of personal animositytoward Netanyahu. 2. The parties headed by Foreign Minister Liberman and former Minister Kahlon will hold the balance of power. Though they both originate in the right, it is not at all clear that they will recommend Netanyahu to the president on “the day after.” In private talks over the past few weeks, Liberman has said, “I will recommend myself.” Meanwhile, Kahlon has announced that he would recommend whoever supports all the points in his socio- economic agenda. What will Kahlon do if it is Herzog who offers to implement Kahlon's program in full? 3. The United Arab Party, which was founded because of the new electoral threshold, is likely to recommend Herzog. In the past decade, the Arab parties refused to recommend any candidate after the elections. They preferred to pursue political separatism, and kept themselves out of the game. On the other hand, Herzog enjoys a strong relationship with the Arab members of the Knesset. He will therefore invest enormous efforts in an attempt to win their recommendation. According to the polls, the United Arab Party will win between 12 and 14 seats. With them, Meretz, and Yair Lapid, Herzog

would be very close to the 60-member threshold on the day after the election. This is an ideal opening situation, even if Herzog would still have to square a few circles to put together a new government. Two issues he will have to contend with are Liberman’s announcement that he will not sit in a left-wing government (which eliminates the possibility of him sitting in a government with Meretz), and the insistence of the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox Yahadut HaTorah party that it will not join a coalition with Lapid, the man who forced them to serve in the Israel Defense Forces with his “Sharing the Burden” law.  The current assessment is that this tangled situation will force Herzog and Netanyahu to form a national unity government a day after the election. If the result is, in fact, a tie, the possibility of a premiership rotation agreement between them cannot be discarded. Netanyahu will certainly not be quick to give up two years in the prime minister’s office, but he could find himself in a situation in which the alternative is worse.  If he loses his position to Herzog, it will take his Likud colleagues very little time to show him the door and lock horns over who will inherit the party leadership. Netanyahu has no intention of quitting and he has grown addicted to being Israel’s perennial prime minister. The truth of the matter is that the Israeli public has grown addicted to this reality too. When polls ask which of the candidates is most suited to serve as prime minister, Netanyahu continues to maintain his lead over Herzog by a considerable margin. Herzog may be a skillful politician, but he lacks charisma and a security background.  The well-covered police investigation into many prominent politicians and officials affiliated with Liberman’s party (Yisrael Beitenu) on the eve of the election laid waste to Liberman's grand plans. In a recent closed-door meeting, Knesset member Faina Kirschenbaum, the “center of the investigation” who used to be the most powerful woman to stand alongside Liberman, said that a deal had been reached between him, Kahlon and Lapid.  According to her, they planned to consolidate into a single bloc after the election and recommend Liberman for the position of prime minister. The police investigation and the extensive coverage that it has received destroyed Liberman’s electorate. He has plummeted to just somewhere between five and seven seats in the polls. He has since been waging a recovery campaign and has managed to break past the new electoral threshold (which he himself implemented), while leaving himself a considerable safety net.  Nor is Kahlon’s campaign taking off, while Lapid could be this election’s big surprise again, with his powerful, carefully honed campaign. Another fact that must not be overlooked is the high number of undecided voters (around 20 seats are still up for grabs), and the fact that a large percentage of these undecided votes are from the center-left camp. In other words, we can still expect to see some surprises in these elections.  As of now, Netanyahu is still dictating the election agenda. Over the past few weeks, the prime minister has influenced the election campaign agenda on a daily basis, leaving his rivals far behind. Herzog, Lapid, and Kahlon are all trying to pull these elections into the socio- economic arena and in so doing, to strike at Netanyahu’s soft underbelly. But Netanyahu is using all his political wiles and the power of his position to drag everyone along after him. So far, it is actually working.

 As of today, Netanyahu’s greatest electoral asset is US President Barack Obama. In the past, a well-publicized feud with the US administration would have toppled an Israeli prime minister, but the situation today is the exact opposite. Thanks to a series of serious mistakes that Obama made during his first term, Netanyahu and the right have managed to turn him into a kind of public enemy No. 1, ignoring the fact that under Obama, security cooperation between Israel and the United States reached an all-time high.  As these very words are being written, the state comptroller is slated to release a grim report about Netanyahu’s extravagant expenses and his hedonistic behavior. The main tool that Netanyahu has prepared to neuter the electoral impact of this report is the speech that he is expected to deliver to the US Congress on March 3, just two weeks before the election.  Netanyahu finds himself caught up in the serious consequences of this speech again and again. Over the past few days, it has been released that the United States has removed Israel from its intimate circle of confidantes in all matters concerning the negotiations with Iran. The various US representatives at the talks, among them Frederick Hoff, Wendy Sherman and, of course, US national security adviser Susan Rice, have received explicit instructions from the White House not to give Netanyahu and his people any details whatsoever concerning the negotiations between the world powers and Iran, apart from the most general updates. This is a dramatic, almost unprecedented development, which, in other times, would have had a bone- crushing impact on the Israeli government. These days, however, it goes hardly even noticed.  In Maariv's Feb. 13 newspaper poll, some 56% of the public declared that “Netanyahu is right in wanting to present his position on the nuclear threat to the US Congress.” At the same time, however, and in the same breath, some 53% of the public said Netanyahu should cancel his trip to Congress or make do with addressing the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). When asked whether the US administration is interfering in the Israeli elections, some 61% of respondents answered with a resounding “yes.” There can be no doubt that since the days of such popular presidents as Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, there has been a strategic shift to the right among the Israeli electorate, paralleled by a slow but steady decline of the US administration’s position as a pro-Israel factor.  Given the current situation, the controversial address to Congress in early March could be the “tiebreaker” in the Israeli election campaign. Netanyahu is a brilliant orator. When he stands there at the podium with his perfect English, his polished accent, his creative imagery, and his fervor, just about every Israeli feels at least an iota of pride. Just about every Israeli is saying to himself that Netanyahu is the ultimate representative on earth. During all his years in office, Netanyahu never missed a single appearance before the UN General Assembly, and he appeared frequently before the AIPAC conference too. Each appearance built him up and added quite a few potential seats to his roster, for a period of weeks or even months. His appearance before Congress in March could be what wins Netanyahu a fourth term as prime minister of Israel, to Obama's chagrin, and perhaps even ire.