DOCSLIB.ORG

Climate Change, Debt and COVID-19

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Climate Change, Debt and COVID-19 102 STUDY Analysis Climate change, Debt and COVID-19 Analysing the Triple Crisis with a New Climate Disaster and Debt Risk Indicator and Building Forward for a Resilient Recovery, Based on Climate Justice Imprint Publisher Brot für die Welt Evangelisches Werk für Diakonie und Entwicklung e. V. Caroline-Michaelis-Straße 1 10115 Berlin Phone: +49 30 65211 0 [email protected] www.brot-fuer-die-welt.de Lead Author Thomas Hirsch (Climate and Development Advice) With contributions from Eva Hanfstängl and Sabine Minninger (Bread for the World); Jürgen Kaiser (erlassjahr.de); Vera Hampel and Miklós Veszprémi (Climate and Development Advice); Kerstin Pfliegner, Joanna Smith and Helena Sims (The Nature Conservancy); Sara Jane Ahmed (Finance Advisor at the Global Centre on Adaptation); Vera Künzel and Laura Schäfer (Germanwatch); Elena Cedillo and Sophie Gebreyes (Lutheran World Federation); Marivone Vorachak (Cooperation Committee with Laos); Maina Talia (Climate justice consultant, Tuvalu) Editor Sven Recker This publication contains guest articles that are in the sole responsibility of the guest authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bread for the World and erlassjahr.de Responsible according to German Press Law Klaus Seitz Photos Jens Grossmann (title: Debris in front of the Bethany Hospital in the City of Tacloban City in Leyte/Philippines due to the devastating damages Typhoon Hayian caused in 2013./p. 42), Christof Krackhardt (p. 23), Karin Schermbrucker (p. 16), SIGA (p. 9), Sara Jane Ahmed (p. 32), Sophie Gebreyes (p. 51), Manivone Vorachak (p. 63), Maina Talia (p. 69), Elena Cedillo (p. 76) Layout Katja Tränkner (Write Now) Art. No. 129503190 Donations Brot für die Welt Bank für Kirche und Diakonie IBAN: DE10 1006 1006 0500 5005 00 BIC: GENODED1KDB March 2021 STUDY Climate change, Debt and COVID-19 Analysing the Triple Crisis with a New Climate Disaster and Debt Risk Indicator and Building Forward for a Resilient Recovery, Based on Climate Justice Table of Contents List of Figures . 1 Abbreviations . 2 Glossary . 3 Foreword . 4 Executive Summary . 5. Introduction . 6. PART I: Addressing Multiple Climate, Pandemic and Debt Risks . 8. Overview of topics . 8 On the way to a new sovereign debt crisis . 8 Effects of the COVID-19 crisis ..................................................10 The climate crisis ‒ expensive losses and the threat of losing control .................. 11 Interactions between debt, climate and pandemic crises . 13. How climate and other disaster risks increase debt . .14 When debt grows, resilience decreases . 17 SIDS are on the frontline of the climate, COVID-19 and debt crises ..................17 Beyond SIDS: The risk of over-indebtedness caused by climate-induced damages ...... 19 The COVID-19 pandemic: Crisis-catalyser or momentum for a turnaround? ........... 19 Interim conclusion: The climate change and sovereign debt impact chain . 22 Applying the Climate Disaster and Debt Risk Index to five sample countries . 22 Solution approaches . 25 Equity, responsibility, legitimacy ‒ addressing the crisis with justice for the poor ......25 Debt moratorium and state insolvency proceedings, when debt-carrying capacity is exceeded ..........................................................26 Debt conversion in support of investment into climate adaptation ...................28 Equalisation fund to cover vulnerable countries’ climate-induced extra credit risk .....30 Setting up a Global Resilience Investment Facility .................................. 31 Climate change and debt management: Supporting the V20’s climate prosperity ........32 Making polluters pay ............................................................35 The Warsaw International Mechanism’s possible role in the debt and climate crisis ....36 Conclusions and recommendations . 38 PART II: Countries Caught Between Debt, COVID-19 and Climate Change . 41. Measuring the combined climate, pandemic, disaster and debt risk . .41 Ethiopia ....................................................................46 Sri Lanka ...................................................................53 Lao People’s Democratic Republic ..............................................58 Papua New Guinea . 64 El Salvador ..................................................................71 Bibliography . 78 List of Figures Figure 1 Number of developing countries breaching at least one critical debt risk indicator Figure 2 The climate change and sovereign debt impact chain Figure 3 The multi-dimensional Climate Disaster and Debt Risk Index of five sample countries Figure 4 Susceptibility to climate change of Moody’s rated sovereigns Figure 5 Public debt to GDP ratio in Grenada Figure 6 Debt sustainability analyses Figure 7 Classification of disaster risk Figure 8 Classification of average annual climate-induced losses Figure 9 Classification of climate-induced loss trend Figure 10 Classification of multi-hazard relative average annual loss Figure 11 Classification of losses as a percentage of social expenditure Figure 12 Classification of size of the financing gap in case of a 100-year extreme event Figure 13 Classification of financing gap return period Figure 14 Classification of loss and damage risk Figure 15 Debt risk scoring Figure 16 Classification of debt risk Figure 17 Classification of multi-dimensional risk Figure 18 Map of Ethiopia Figure 19 Climate-induced losses in Ethiopia (2010‒2017) Figure 20 Map of Sri Lanka Figure 21 Climate-induced losses in Sri Lanka (2010‒2017) Figure 22 Map of Lao PDR Figure 23 Climate-induced losses in Lao PDR (2010‒2017) Figure 24 Map of Papua New Guinea Figure 25 Climate-induced losses in PNG (2010‒2017) Figure 26 Map of El Salvador Figure 27 Climate-induced losses in El Salvador (2010‒2017) 1 Abbreviations AOSIS Association of Small Island States BftW Bread for the World/Brot für die Welt CAN Climate Action Network CCDSF Climate Change and Disaster Survival Fund (of Tuvalu) CCRT Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (of the IMF) CRI Climate Risk Index (Germanwatch) CVF/V20 Climate Vulnerable Forum/Vulnerable 20 DRMKC Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre (European Commission) DRR Disaster Risk Reduction DSSI Debt Service Suspension Initiative (of the G20) ExCom Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism G7 Group of Seven G20 Group of Twenty GAR Global Assessment Report (on Disasters, published by UNDRR) GCF Green Climate Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National Income HDI Human Development Index HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative IFIs International Financial Institutions IMF International Monetary Fund Lao PDR Lao People’s Democratic Republic LDCs Least Developed Countries MDRI Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative MIC Middle Income Country NDC Nationally Determined Contributions ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development PA Paris Agreement PNG Papua New Guinea PPP Purchasing Power Parity SDG Sustainable Development Goals SIDS Small Island Developing States TFCA Tropical Forest Conservation Act TNC The Nature Conservancy UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDP United Nations Development Program UNDRR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WIM Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (under UNFCCC) 2 Glossary A Global Debt Register has been proposed by erlassjahr.de Debt Conversion Facility (Schuldenumwandlungs- to create transparency across all states’ public debt oblig- fazilität) is a German stimulus program created in 1992 ations. to cancel outstanding development aid credits under the condition that the respective states, mostly in the Global The London Club is an informal ad-hoc group of creditor South, commit to invest equivalent sums with or without banks, which convenes in order to renegotiate claims discount, in their national currencies, in environmental of individual debtor countries. The first meeting in the protection and development projects. London Club format took place in 1976. EM DAT is a database on disaster related economic and The Paris Club is a cartel of creditor governments, humanitarian losses, based in Belgium. founded in 1956, in order to coordinate their negotiations with debtor countries. It has 22 members, most of them A fair, independent and transparent sovereign debt OECD member states. workout for states would grant over-indebted states the opportunity of fair and transparent insolvency pro- Debt Carrying Capacity is defined as the level of debt ceedings overseen by independent decision-making a debtor can service and repay in full and on time. It bodies. erlassjahr.de and the global Jubilee movement has not had a generally binding definition so far. The have been promoting them.² question of what sustainable levels of debt are has been approached variously within discussions of national debt INFORM is a multi-stakeholder forum for developing crises. Various levels have been applied in negotiations. shared, quantitative analysis relevant to humanitarian The analysis of historical debt carrying capacities crises and disasters led by the Joint Research Centre of studies past situations in which debt payments became the European Commission and managed by the Inter- unsustainable. It allows the deduction of levels of debt Agency Standing Committee Reference Group on Risk, that were, as a matter of historical fact, not sustainable. Early Warning and Preparedness in collaboration
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Lasting Coastal Hazards from Past Greenhouse Gas Emissions COMMENTARY Tony E
    COMMENTARY Lasting coastal hazards from past greenhouse gas emissions COMMENTARY Tony E. Wonga,1 The emission of greenhouse gases into Earth’satmo- 100% sphereisaby-productofmodernmarvelssuchasthe Extremely likely by 2073−2138 production of vast amounts of energy, heating and 80% cooling inhospitable environments to be amenable to human existence, and traveling great distances 60% Likely by 2064−2105 faster than our saddle-sore ancestors ever dreamed possible. However, these luxuries come at a price: 40% climate changes in the form of severe droughts, ex- Probability treme precipitation and temperatures, increased fre- 20% quency of flooding in coastal cities, global warming, RCP2.6 and sea-level rise (1, 2). Rising seas pose a severe risk RCP8.5 0% to coastal areas across the globe, with billions of 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 US dollars in assets at risk and about 10% of the ’ Year when 50-cm sea-level rise world s population living within 10 m of sea level threshold is exceeded (3–5). The price of our emissions is not felt immedi- ately throughout the entire climate system, however, Fig. 1. Cumulative probability of exceeding 50 cm of sea-level rise by year (relative to the global mean sea because processes such as ice sheet melt and the level from 1986 to 2005). The yellow box denotes the expansion of warming ocean water act over the range of years after which exceedance is likely [≥66% course of centuries. Thus, even if all greenhouse probability (12)], where the left boundary follows a gas emissions immediately ceased, our past emis- business-as-usual emissions scenario (RCP8.5, red line) sions have already “locked in” some amount of con- and the right boundary follows a low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6, blue line).
    [Show full text]
  • Volume 21, No. 2 Fall 2010 ______
    INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ETHICS NEWSLETTER _____________________________________________________ Volume 21, No. 2 Fall 2010 _____________________________________________________ GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS ISEE Membership: ISEE membership dues are now due annually by Earth Day—22 April—of each year. Please pay your 2010-2011 dues now if you have not already done so. You can either use the form on the last page of this Newsletter to mail a check to ISEE Treasurer Marion Hourdequin, or you can use PayPal with a credit card from the membership page of the ISEE website at: <http://www.cep.unt.edu/iseememb.html>. “Old World and New World Perspectives on Environmental Philosophy,” Eighth Annual Meeting of the International Society for Environmental Ethics (ISEE), Nijmegen, The Netherlands, 14-17 June 2011: Please see the full call for abstracts and conference details in the section CONFERENCES AND CALLS below. Abstracts are due by 6 December 2010. ISEE Newsletter Going Exclusively Electronic: Starting with the Spring 2011 issue (Volume 22, no. 1), hardcopies of the ISEE Newsletter will no longer be produced and mailed to ISEE members via snail mail. ISEE members will continue to receive the Newsletter electronically as a pdf and, of course, can print their own hardcopies. New ISEE Newsletter Editor: Starting with the Spring 2011 issue, the new ISEE Newsletter Editor will be William Grove-Fanning. Please submit all ISEE Newsletter items to him at: <[email protected]>. Welcome William! ISEE Newsletter Issues: There was no 2010 Spring/Summer issue of the ISEE Newsletter. Because of the ISEE Newsletter Editor transition from Mark Woods to William Grove-Fanning, there will be no Winter 2011 issue of the ISEE Newsletter.
    [Show full text]
  • Loss and Damage from Climate Change: the Cost for Poor People in Developing Countries
    Zuhra Mai by the remains of her house, one of the 1.8 million homes damaged or destroyed in Pakistan’s 2010 fl oods. PHOTO: ACTIONAID Loss and damage from climate change: the cost for poor people in developing countries Discussion Paper Loss and damage from climate change: the cost for poor people in developing countries Discussion Paper 2 Loss and damage from climate change: the cost for poor people in developing countries Contents Abbreviations 3 Introduction 4 1 Defi nitions and scale 6 2 Compensation for loss and damage 16 3 Proposals for dealing with loss and damage 21 Conclusion and recommendations 27 Notes 29 3 Loss and damage from climate change: the cost for poor people in developing countries Abbreviations ABI Association of British Insurers AOSIS Alliance of Small Island States CCFM Climate Change Funding Mechanism CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility CERF Central Emergency Response Fund GDP Gross domestic product IOPC International Oil Pollution Compensation MCII Munich Climate Insurance Initiative NGO Non-governmental organisation NPV Net present value UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UN-OCHA United Nations Offi ce for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 4 Loss and damage from climate change: the cost for poor people in developing countries Introduction Debates on climate fi nance for developing disproportionately contributed to the impacts countries tend to be limited to low carbon of climate change being felt by developing development, mitigation and adaptation, how countries. much each will cost, and what the respective • A loss and damage debt – where climate fi nancial mechanisms should be.
    [Show full text]
  • In Defense of Climate Debt Ethics: a Response to Olivier Godard
    Working Papers in Human Ecology No. 5 Human Ecology Division Lund University In Defense of Climate Debt Ethics: A Response to Olivier Godard Rikard Warlenius 1 Previous titles published in the series Working Papers in Human Ecology: 1. Alf Hornborg: Ecology as Semiotics. Outlines of a Contextualist Paradigm for Human Ecology. 1996. 2. Per-A. Johansson; Evolution, Ecology, and Society. A Heuristic, Ontological Framework. 1997. 3. Mikael Kurkiala: Cosmology, Social Change, and Human-Environmental Relations Among the Lakota in the 18th and 19th Centuries. 2002. 4. Thomas Malm: Mo'ui. Tongan Names for Plants and Animals. 2007. In defense of climate debt ethics: A response to Olivier Godard Working Papers in Human Ecology no. 5. ISSN 1402-6902 © Rikard Warlenius, 2013 This publication can be downloaded for free at: http://www.hek.lu.se 2 Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 4 Part I: Background ........................................................................................................................ 8 The “Progressive Destruction” of the UNFCCC Negotiations ............................................. 8 LULUCF and the “Balanced Picture” ................................................................................. 10 An Ecological Debt “Doctrine”? ......................................................................................... 12 Legal Aspects and Kicking Dead Horses ...........................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Crisis and the Case for Climate Reparations: Unpicking Old/New Colonialities of Finance for Development Within the Sdgs
    The New ‘Bond-age’, climate crisis and the case for climate reparations: unpicking old/new colonialities of finance for development within the SDGs Keston K. Perry (Ph.D) University of the West of England (UWE Bristol) Coldharbour Lane, Frenchay campus Bristol, BS16 1QY [email protected] Abstract In the current crisis period, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have provided a framework for new norms about governance of and access to external financing that emphasize stimulating investor interest and creating a suite of innovative instruments to address major development challenges. However, the inadequacies associated with extant financing streams are in sharp relief since they do not address damages and losses associated with the climate crisis. The current global configuration aimed at generating from “billions to trillions” of development finance are awfully mute on historical responsibility for the uneven and extreme consequences facing climate-impacted communities in the Global South. This paper interrogates the role of the SDGs, in particular SDG17, in both adducing financialisation as an evolutionary process, further extracting profit from racialized communities, and a source of instability in the global economy. It points to the manner in which the “trillions” deemed necessary are ostensibly mobilized in pursuit of financial returns to be made from climate disaster that generate further debt, dispossesses racialized populations in the global south, and thereby ushering in a new era of “bond-age” and coloniality. Current development financing arrangements under the SDGs would increase the cost burdens and compromise the Global South’s capacities to democractically manage and meet their developmental needs due to accumulating losses and damage from major extreme climate-induced events.
    [Show full text]
  • On the Concept of Climate Debt: Its Moral and Political Value
    Not for citation or distribution On the concept of climate debt: its moral and political value Abstract A range of developing countries and international advocacy organisations have argued that wealthy countries, as a result of their greater historical contribution to human- induced climate change, owe a ‘climate debt’ to poor countries. Critics of this argument have claimed that it is incoherent or morally objectionable. In this essay we clarify the concept of climate debt and assess its value for conceptualising responsibilities associated with global climate change and for guiding international climate negotiations. We conclude that the idea of a climate debt can be coherently formulated, and that while some understandings of the idea of climate debt could lead to morally objectionable conclusions, other accounts would not. However, we argue that climate debt nevertheless provides an unhelpful frame for advancing global justice through international climate negotiations—the only existing means of resolving political conflict over the collective action problems posed by human-induced climate change— due to its retrospective and potentially adversarial emphasis, and to problems of measurement. Keywords: climate debt; climate; global justice; international climate negotiations Introduction Do developed countries, as a result of their greater historical contribution to causing human-induced climate change, owe a ‘climate debt’ to poor countries? Numerous developing countries and international advocacy organisations have argued that they do. They assert this on the ground that these countries have used more than their fair share of the Earth’s ability to absorb the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. The resulting need to reduce emissions globally now constrains the ability of poorer countries to develop.
    [Show full text]
  • Draft Annual Plan 2020/21 Submissions for Oral Hearings Submissions Received 8 May to 8 June 17 June 2020
    Draft Annual Plan 2020/21 Submissions for Oral Hearings Submissions received 8 May to 8 June 17 June 2020 List of oral submitters Curtis Nixon ........................................................................................................................................................3 Mike Britton, Forest & Bird Wellington ...................................................................................................7 Liz Springford ....................................................................................................................................................8 Paul Robinson, Property Council New Zealand .................................................................................. 12 Alicia Hall, Millions of Mothers................................................................................................................. 17 Paul Ward, Capital Kiwi .............................................................................................................................. 19 Angela Rothwell, Mount Victoria Residents’ Association ............................................................... 30 Brad Olsen, Wellington City Youth Council .......................................................................................... 31 Jaenine Parkinson, New Zealand Portrait Gallery Te Pūkenga Whakaata ............................... 38 Lisa Schollum, Arts Wellington ................................................................................................................. 40 Sam Donald, Vogelmorn
    [Show full text]
  • Still Digging: G20 Governments Continue to Finance the Climate Crisis
    STILL DIGGING: G20 GOVERNMENTS CONTINUE TO FINANCE THE CLIMATE CRISIS MAY 2020 This report was researched and written by Bronwen Tucker Published by Oil Change International (www.priceofoil.org) (Oil Change International) and Kate DeAngelis (Friends of the and Friends of the Earth U.S. (foe.org), and endorsed by: Earth US) with contributions from Alex Doukas (Oil Change 350.org, World Wildlife Fund, Transnational Institute, Centre International). Data for the Shift the Subsidies data was collected for Financial Accountability, Asian Peoples Movement on Debt by Ken Bossong of the SUN DAY Campaign for and Development, Les Amis de la Terre, JA! Justica Ambiental Oil Change International. (Friends of the Earth Mozambique), Solutions for Our Climate, Korea Federation for Environmental Movements, Re:Common, The authors are grateful for feedback from the following reviewers: VedvarendeEnergi, Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe, Kelly Trout of Oil Change International, Doug Norlen of Friends Both ENDS, Friends of the Earth Japan, Common-Wealth, of the Earth US, Lorne Stockman of Oil Change International, Gastivists, Above Ground, Legambiente, Stand.earth, Rainforest Katharine Lu of Friends of the Earth US, Sophie Bartosch of Action Network, Christian Aid, Big Shift Global, CEE Bankwatch Germanwatch, Sejong Youn of Solutions for our Climate, Wawa Network, Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (FARN), Wang of Vedvarende Energi, Cécile Marchand of Les Amis de Environmental Defence Canada, Catholic Agency for Overseas la Terre, Elena Gerebizza
    [Show full text]
  • What Surprises Lurk Within the Climate System?
    Home Search Collections Journals About Contact us My IOPscience What surprises lurk within the climate system? This content has been downloaded from IOPscience. Please scroll down to see the full text. 2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 120202 (http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/11/12/120202) View the table of contents for this issue, or go to the journal homepage for more Download details: This content was downloaded by: bobkopp IP Address: 68.192.122.146 This content was downloaded on 07/12/2016 at 13:21 Please note that terms and conditions apply. Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 120202 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/120202 EDITORIAL What surprises lurk within the climate system? OPEN ACCESS Katharine Hayhoe1 and Robert E Kopp2 PUBLISHED 1 Climate Science Center and Department of Political Science, Texas Tech University, Lubbock TX, USA 7 December 2016 2 Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Rutgers Energy Institute, and Institute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Aristotle might argue that humans were not respon- of future scenarios, representing everything from con- Any further distribution of this work must maintain sible for the choices made at the beginning of the tinued reliance on fossil fuels to the sharp emission attribution to the Industrial Era, when collective scientific and societal cuts required to achieve global mean temperature tar- author(s) and the title of ‘ ° ’ the work, journal citation knowledge limited our capacity to choose wisely and gets such as the well below 2 C goal of the Paris and DOI.
    [Show full text]
  • A Climate Chronology Sharon S
    Landscape of Change by Jill Pelto A Climate Chronology Sharon S. Tisher, J.D. School of Economics and Honors College University of Maine http://umaine.edu/soe/faculty-and-staff/tisher Copyright © 2021 All Rights Reserved Sharon S. Tisher Foreword to A Climate Chronology Dr. Sean Birkel, Research Assistant Professor & Maine State Climatologist Climate Change Institute School of Earth and Climate Sciences University of Maine March 12, 2021 The Industrial Revolution brought unprecedented innovation, manufacturing efficiency, and human progress, ultimately shaping the energy-intensive technological world that we live in today. But for all its merits, this transformation of human economies also set the stage for looming multi-generational environmental challenges associated with pollution, energy production from fossil fuels, and the development of nuclear weapons – all on a previously unimaginable global scale. More than a century of painstaking scientific research has shown that Earth’s atmosphere and oceans are warming as a result of human activity, primarily through the combustion of fossil fuels (e.g., oil, coal, and natural gas) with the attendant atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and other * greenhouse gases. Emissions of co-pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), toxic metals, and volatile organic compounds, also degrade air quality and cause adverse human health impacts. Warming from greenhouse-gas emissions is amplified through feedbacks associated with water vapor, snow and sea-ice
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Justice Baseline Climate Justice Baseline
    Report July 2013 Climate Justice Baseline Climate Justice Baseline Table of Contents Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................4 History of Climate Justice....................................................................................................................4 Perspectives on Climate Justice..........................................................................................................4 Approaches to Climate Justice Action.................................................................................................5 Who was using a Climate Justice Narrative up to the End of December 2011?.................................5 Acronyms ................................................................................................................................................6 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................7 1.1 Purpose and Rationale............................................................................................................8 1.2 Methodology...........................................................................................................................8 1.3 Limitations...............................................................................................................................9 2. The Injustice of Climate Change .......................................................................................................10
    [Show full text]
  • Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions
    Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., doi:10.5194/esd-2016-42, 2016 Manuscript under review for journal Earth Syst. Dynam. Published: 4 October 2016 c Author(s) 2016. CC-BY 3.0 License. Young People’s Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions James Hansen,1 Makiko Sato,1 Pushker Kharecha,1 Karina von Schuckmann,2 David J Beerling,3 Junji Cao,4 Shaun Marcott,5 Valerie Masson-Delmotte,6 Michael J Prather,7 5 Eelco J Rohling,8,9 Jeremy Shakun,10 Pete Smith11 1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115 2Mercator Ocean, 10 Rue Hermes, 31520 Ramonville St Agne, France 3Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK 4Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics, SKLLQG, Institute of Earth Environment, Xi’an 710061, China 5Department of Geoscience, 10 1215 W. Dayton St., Weeks Hall, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706 6Institut PierreSimon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ) Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France 7Earth System Science Department, University of California at Irvine, CA 8Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, 2601, Australia 9Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography 15 Centre, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK 10Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 11Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, AB24 3UU, UK E-mail: [email protected] Keywords: climate change, carbon budget, intergenerational justice 20 Abstract The rapid rise of global temperature that began about 1975 continues at a mean rate of about 0.18°C/decade, with the current annual temperature exceeding +1.25°C relative to 1880-1920.
    [Show full text]