No. 658 January 21, 2010 The Libertarian Vote in the Age of Obama by David Kirby and David Boaz Executive Summary Libertarian—or fiscally conservative, socially socially liberal,” and 44 percent agreed that they liberal—voters are often torn between their aver- were “fiscally conservative and socially liberal, sions to the Republicans’ social conservatism and also known as libertarian.” the Democrats’ fiscal irresponsibility. Yet libertar- Libertarians shifted back to the Republican col- ians rarely factor into pundits’ and pollsters’ umn in 2008, supporting John McCain over Barack analyses. Obama by 71 to 27 percent. Although many liber- In 2004 libertarians swung away from Bush, tarian intellectuals had a real antipathy to McCain, anticipating the Democratic victories of 2006. In the typical libertarian voter saw McCain as an inde- 2008, according to new data in this paper, liber- pendent, straight-talking maverick who was a tarians voted against Barack Obama. Libertarians strong opponent of earmarks and pork-barrel seem to be a lead indicator of trends in centrist, spending and never talked about social issues. Also, independent-minded voters. If libertarians con- the prospect of a Democratic president working tinue to lead the independents away from Obama, with a Democratic majority in Congress at the Democrats will lose 2010 midterm elections they height of a financial crisis scared libertarian voters. would otherwise win. Younger libertarians were more supportive of We find that 14 percent of American voters Obama. Pro-life libertarians are more Republican can be classified as libertarian. Other surveys than pro-choice libertarians. find a larger number of people who hold views Few of the voters we describe as libertarian that are neither consistently liberal nor conserv- identify themselves as such. But the Ron Paul ative but are best described as libertarian. A 2009 campaign and the burgeoning opposition to Gallup poll found that 23 percent held libertari- President Obama’s big-government agenda sug- an views. A Zogby poll found that 59 percent gest that small-government voters may be easier considered themselves “fiscally conservative and to organize than they have been in the past. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ David Kirby is an associate policy analyst, and David Boaz is executive vice president, at the Cato Institute. They are coauthors of “The Libertarian Vote,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 580. Libertarian— Yet there are few Americans who like the or fiscally Introduction Republicans. An October NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that only 25 percent have conservative, “I’ve been here for 37 years. There’s a positive opinion of the Republican Party, socially liberal— very little new, really new, that ever tying the survey’s all-time low.10 voters are often takes place. But I’m seeing something In 2008 we were told that Obama would in the Republican Party that I’ve never forge consensus. In the presidential elections torn between seen in either Party. And that is you’ve of 2000 and 2004, we were told that we’re a their aversions to got a core base of the Party that detests polarized nation, sharply split between “red the opposition leader and the entire team” Republicans and “blue team” Demo- the Republicans’ agenda of the Democratic Party. But at crats. But entering 2010, the nation doesn’t social conser- the same time, they have total con- seem to want to be part of any team at all. vatism and the tempt of their own Party’s leadership A standard question for pollsters is, “How and establishment.” much of the time do you trust the government Democrats’ fiscal —Charlie Cook, radio interview, in Washington to do what is right?” In the irresponsibility. October 28, 20091 NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, the answers were not encouraging for incumbent politi- Pundits are baffled. After an election victory cians or people who want the federal govern- billed as “historic,” many expected President ment to take on sweeping new obligations. Obama to translate the hope of his campaign Just 4 percent said they trust the government into a new consensus in politics. The New York “just about always” while 19 percent said Times editorialized that Obama’s election would “most of the time.” The overwhelming major- forge a “broad political consensus.”2 David ity, 65 percent, said they trust the government Gergen describes Obama as a “consensus-seek- “only some of the time.”11 An unprecedented ing” politician.3 Yet in nine months, we’ve wit- 11 percent of respondents volunteered—this nessed increasing anger toward Obama and his option wasn’t asked—that they “never” trust administration’s continuation of the Bush-era the government.12 No doubt some of those policies of takeovers, bailouts, federal spending, mistrusting voters are libertarians. and the extension of federal control. Citizens A closer look at ideology reveals that these have staged “Tea Party” protests, shouted down two ideas—of polarization and consensus— members of Congress at town hall meetings, were both based on a misdiagnosis of public and marched on Washington. opinion. Libertarian—or fiscally conservative, So much for consensus. As early as July, socially liberal—voters are often torn between polls detected that centrists and independents their aversions to the Republicans’ social were moving away from the Democratic conservatism and the Democrats’ fiscal irre- Party.4 From January to October, Gallup data sponsibility. Yet libertarians rarely factor into show that independents’ job approval of pundits’ and pollsters’ analyses. Polls show Obama has dropped 16 points, from 62 to 46 that libertarians are 10 to 20 percent of voters percent.5 In the 2009 gubernatorial elections and a key swing vote. in Virginia and New Jersey, independents In 2004 libertarians swung away from swung away from Democrats according to George W. Bush, anticipating the Democratic CNN exit polls. In Virginia, independents vot- victories of 2006. In 2008, according to new ed for Republican Bob McDonnell 66 to 33 data, libertarians voted against Barack Obama. percent,6 a 34-point swing from 2008 when Libertarians seem to be a lead indicator of independents voted for Obama 49 to 48 per- trends in centrist, independent-minded voters. cent.7 In New Jersey, independents voted for Libertarians’ concerns about Republican over- Republican Chris Christie 60 to 30 percent,8 a spending, government growth, excessive social 34-point swing from 2008 when independents conservatism, and the war in Iraq prompted voted for Obama 51 to 47.9 them to move away from Bush in 2004, earlier 2 than other independents did. Before the 2006 between conservative Republican and liberal elections, we predicted that if the swing away Democratic candidates for office. from the Republicans continued, “Republi- Many years of polls show that 10 to 20 cans will lose elections they would otherwise percent—or more—of Americans fall into the win.”13 Now we offer the reverse prediction: lib- libertarian quadrant. Indeed, libertarians are a ertarians were more skeptical in 2008 about bigger share of the electorate than the much Obama’s big-government agenda, but now discussed “soccer moms” of the 1990s or those concerns are widespread among moder- “NASCAR dads” of the early 2000s, and bigger ates and independents. If libertarians continue than many of the microtargeted groups pur- to lead the independents away from Obama, sued by political strategists in the 2004 and Democrats will lose 2010 midterm elections 2008 elections.14 Libertarians are increasingly they would otherwise win. a swing vote. Through the Bush years, Repub- If there’s something new in American poli- licans expanded entitlements and spent tax- tics, as Charlie Cook observes, perhaps it is a payers’ money faster than Democrats, giving shift away from partisan loyalties and a gener- libertarians less reason to stick with their tra- ational shift away from old issues and old ditional voting patterns. Polls in 2004 and alliances. Pundits often refer to the “conserva- 2006 showed that libertarian voters shifted to- tive base” as the Republican Party’s core voters, ward the Democrats, and they may well have Perhaps there is motivated by a collection of issues: taxes, fam- cost Republicans control of Congress.15 But a new group of ily issues, abortion, national security, military 2008 brought a return to the Republican voters emerging strength, and American values. Political lead- Party, as the prospect of a liberal Democrat ers such as Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin, mismanaging the largest financial crisis in around a and media hosts such as Glenn Beck and Rush decades made libertarians retreat to the different set of Limbaugh, are icons of that conservative base. market-friendly rhetoric of John McCain. issues: spending, But perhaps there is a new group of voters Why is this substantial and growing liber- emerging around a different set of issues: tarian strength not better recognized? Politi- mistrust of spending, mistrust of government, govern- cal scientists have taught for more than 50 government, ment control, and social tolerance. While the years that politics is arranged on a liberal- conservative base remains more loyal to the conservative continuum, so we’re all used to government Republican Party, these more libertarian vot- that. And indeed, political activists and elect- control, and ers are angry with Republicans, even if liber- ed officials do seem to have arranged them- social tolerance. tarians often vote for them as the lesser of two selves into those two camps, rather than a evils. What will be the impact of this emerging more accurate reflection of the total elec- electorate? We now have more data to answer torate. Because of the constant repetition that question. of the liberal-conservative spectrum, most libertarian-minded voters don’t identify themselves as libertarians, and they aren’t America’s Libertarian organized in libertarian groups.